Podcast Summary: Chit Chat Stocks – “Will Stablecoins Kill Visa? Plunging Alcohol Stocks; Exciting Space Stock IPOs (BFB, V, MA, CRCL)”

Release Date: June 20, 2025

Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer
Guests: Jeff Santoro & Jason Hall from Investing Unscripted
Sponsor: Interactive Brokers & Blue Chippers Club

Introduction

In this episode of Chit Chat Stocks, host Brett Schafer steps in as Ryan Henderson is on a work trip. Special guests Jeff Santoro and Jason Hall from the Investing Unscripted podcast join the discussion. The primary topics revolve around the potential impact of stablecoins on traditional payment networks like Visa and MasterCard, the plunge in alcohol stocks, and the emergence of exciting space stock IPOs.

1. The Rise of Stablecoins and Their Impact on Traditional Payment Networks

Ryan Henderson opens the conversation:
“I mean, should we start with stable coins? That seems to be like the hot topic.” ([02:31])

Understanding Stablecoins:

Jason Hall provides a foundational understanding:
“The idea with a stablecoin is to have a blockchain asset that has a stable value... They’re one-to-one backed by some kind of a dollar-based asset that can be highly liquid.” ([03:01])

He elaborates on USDC, backed by Circle and Coinbase, aiming to offer stability akin to traditional fiat currencies but within the crypto ecosystem.

Merchants' Perspective:

Jason Hall discusses how stablecoins can revolutionize payment processing for businesses:
“If I could make those fees go away, I double my profits as a business... Also, with blockchain-based payments, you get the money as soon as it's essentially as quick as cash.” ([04:30])

Potential Downsides and Risks:

Ryan Henderson raises concerns about regulation and the reliability of stablecoin issuers:
“Without regulation, without legislation, that’s sort of a gamble you’re taking... What if Circle is selling a bunch of short-term Treasuries real quick?” ([07:15])

Jason Hall adds:
“They might not be able to turn a million dollars worth of Treasuries into a million dollars of cash if they need to sell them quickly.” ([07:15])

Centralization Issues:

Jason Hall points out the irony in crypto's centralization:
"These are actually more and more centralized than you'd think... it flies in the face of the crypto ideal.” ([08:16])

Concluding Thoughts on Stablecoins:

Ryan Henderson expresses skepticism:
“This feels like a solution in search of a problem right now.” ([09:08])

However, he remains open to the possibility that stablecoins could offer lower fees and faster transactions, potentially reshaping the payment landscape.

2. Current Landscape and Adoption Challenges for Stablecoins

Jason Hall highlights recent partnerships enhancing stablecoin adoption:
“Shopify partnered with Coinbase and Stripe, unlocking millions of merchants to accept USDC.” ([11:33])

Brett Schafer underscores the potential benefits for small businesses:
“There’s a lot of room to just raise prices, even if volumes aren’t that strong as they once were.” ([13:52])

Financial Overview of Circle (USDC Issuer):

Brett Schafer presents key metrics:
“$44 billion worth in circulation, 4.3 million wallets. Revenue is $1.66 billion.” ([14:04])

He notes Circle’s relationship with Coinbase and the constraints imposed by the recently passed Genius Act, which regulates how stablecoin issuers manage their reserves.

Investment Perspectives:

Ryan Henderson shares his cautious stance:
“I don’t think they are going to be massively disrupted... I’m not interested in them at all.” ([22:16])

Jason Hall counters by diversifying his portfolio:
“I own Visa and MasterCard, but I also own about 15 different crypto assets.” ([24:25])

Brett Schafer suggests monitoring Visa and MasterCard for potential buying opportunities if their stocks dip further due to stablecoin risks:
“If this causes them to go in a 30, 40% drawdown, that could be a good buying opportunity.” ([25:05])

3. Plunging Alcohol Stocks: Brown-Forman’s 68% Drawdown

Brett Schafer introduces the topic:
“The alcohol sector has turned into a bit of a battleground... With pricing power, but stable valuations.” ([37:09])

Industry Challenges:

Jason Hall explains the dual impact of increased supply and stalled demand post-pandemic:
“Coming out of the pandemic, additional supply came online while demand stalled, leading to excess inventory.” ([39:08])

Political and Market Headwinds:

Jason Hall points to geopolitical tensions affecting export markets:
“With the trade war, there’s pressure on markets like Asia, which are key growth areas for Brown-Forman.” ([40:46])

Investment Considerations:

Brett Schafer weighs the value proposition:
“With a PE of 14 and potential pricing power, it feels like a good time to take a plunge.” ([43:02])

Ryan Henderson cautions about potential long-term declines:
“Could I buy these stocks now and have them be down 50% two years from now? Yes, I feel like I could.” ([43:57])

Consumer Behavior Insights:

Brett Schafer shares anecdotal evidence against alcohol being supplanted by cannabis:
“I don’t have high conviction in saying that alcohol is going to get entirely replaced by cannabis.” ([46:17])

4. Exciting Space Stock IPOs: Voyager Technologies and Others

Brett Schafer shifts focus to space sector IPOs:
“Voyager Technologies... very interesting company in the space sector... Market cap around $3 billion.” ([57:16])

Company Highlights:

Jason Hall describes Voyager’s innovations in space infrastructure:
"They're working on replacements for the International Space Station, allowing larger payloads in and out of orbit." ([58:22])

Investment Risks:

Jason Hall raises concerns about governance structures:
“The founder and CEO has a 60% voting interest with only a 5% economic stake.” ([58:51])

Brett Schafer warns about dual-class share structures:
"You better trust them and they better be aligned with shareholders." ([59:08])

Potential and Challenges:

Brett Schafer acknowledges the sector's high risk but also its growth potential:
"Over the next decade, there is going to be a lot of spending within space and defense systems." ([60:15])

5. Navigating the Pre-Revenue Stock Surge: Regensal Biosciences Holding (RGC)

Brett Schafer introduces a cautionary tale:
“Regensal Biosciences Holding Holding is up 64,000% in the last few months.” ([49:12])

Red Flags Identified:

Jason Hall critically examines the company’s press releases:
“Press releases from June 2 and December 2022 show minimal activity and potential management concerns.” ([52:09])

Brett Schafer emphasizes the importance of scrutinizing management’s actions:
“The way a company manages its press releases can tell you a lot.” ([53:33])

Investment Philosophy:

Both hosts and guests agree on cautious skepticism towards hyper-growth pre-revenue companies, highlighting the importance of due diligence.

6. Closing Remarks and Takeaways

Brett Schafer wraps up by highlighting the excitement around space IPOs and the cautious approach needed in volatile sectors like stablecoins and alcohol stocks. He also promotes their sponsor, Blue Chippers Club, emphasizing the value of community-driven investment discussions.

Ryan Henderson and Jason Hall provide their final thoughts, encouraging listeners to engage critically with emerging investment opportunities and to remain vigilant against market bubbles.

Notable Quotes

• Jason Hall ([03:01]): “The idea with a stablecoin is to have a blockchain asset that has a stable value... They’re one-to-one backed by some kind of a dollar-based asset that can be highly liquid.”

• Ryan Henderson ([09:08]): “This feels like a solution in search of a problem right now.”

• Brett Schafer ([14:04]): “$44 billion worth in circulation, 4.3 million wallets. Revenue is $1.66 billion.”

• Jason Hall ([58:51]): “The founder and CEO has a 60% voting interest with only a 5% economic stake.”

• Brett Schafer ([53:33]): “The way a company manages its press releases can tell you a lot.”

Key Takeaways

1. Stablecoins Pose Competitive Threat: While stablecoins like USDC offer lower fees and faster transactions, regulatory uncertainties and potential centralization challenges pose significant risks to traditional payment networks such as Visa and MasterCard.

2. Alcohol Stocks in Flux: Companies like Brown-Forman are experiencing significant stock declines due to increased supply and stagnant demand, compounded by geopolitical tensions affecting key markets.

3. Space Sector IPOs on the Rise: Emerging companies in the space industry, such as Voyager Technologies, present high-risk but potentially high-reward investment opportunities, especially with advancements in space infrastructure.

4. Caution with Hyper-Growth Stocks: Pre-revenue companies exhibiting explosive stock gains, like Regensal Biosciences Holding, warrant careful scrutiny due to potential management and operational red flags.

5. Importance of Due Diligence: Evaluating management structures, press release strategies, and company fundamentals is crucial in making informed investment decisions, especially in volatile or emerging sectors.

Disclaimer:
Nothing discussed on Chit Chat Stocks by Ryan, Brett, Jeff Santoro, Jason Hall, or any other podcast guest constitutes formal advice or recommendations. Please conduct your own research before making investment decisions.