ChooseFI Podcast: Risk Based Guardrails for Drawdown | Ep 566

Date: September 29, 2025
Host: Brad (ChooseFI)
Guest: Aubrey Williams, Financial Advisor & FI Community Member

Overview

In this episode, Brad interviews longtime FI community member turned financial advisor Aubrey Williams about his transformative “Everyone Adjusts” framework for safe withdrawal strategies in early retirement. The episode explores how historical analysis and risk-based guardrails can help people reach Financial Independence (FI) sooner and spend more confidently, instead of being paralyzed by overly rigid withdrawal rate rules or excessive conservatism. The conversation also delves into the philosophy of FI, the value of community, expense optimization, and reframing our relationship to risk and spending in retirement.

Main Themes

• FI Is Not About a Single “Set-It-And-Forget-It” Number
  • Most people treat withdrawal rates and FI numbers as fixed, but “everyone adjusts” as life unfolds.
• Overly Conservative Planning Can Delay FI and Reduce Enjoyment
  • Layering multiple conservative assumptions (“conservatism on top of conservatism”) can result in overworking and under-spending.
• Risk-Based Guardrails Empower More Confident Spending and Early FI
  • Using data-driven thresholds and historical simulations, you can set proactive “guardrails” for your spending, course-correct as needed, and make the most of your FI years.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Aubrey’s Background & Philosophy

• Journey to FI and Financial Advisory
  • Aubrey pivoted late in life from a successful engineering career to financial planning, particularly for the neurodiverse and FI communities.
  • “If I do even a little of that, then I’m glad where I am today.” (05:05)
  • He emphasizes individual differences—there is no universal path to FI.
• Entrepreneurial Lessons
  • Brad and Aubrey share stories of failed side businesses and how trying/‘retiring often’ (Gillian’s concept) helps shape personal growth and risk tolerance.
    • “Most of them failed... but did I learn a lot? Yeah, you bet.” (09:18)
• Power of Community
  • In-person FI events–like CampFI–help people overcome analysis paralysis and conservative fears by learning from real-life success stories.
    • “What really helps it happen is seeing someone else who’s done it.” (23:14)

Frugality, Spending, and FI Mindset Shifts

• Frugality Isn’t Just For Beginners
  • Both hosts reflect on how early frugality and mindful expense tracking catalyzed their FI journeys.
  • Example: Cutting $100/month from expenses reduces your FI number by $30,000 and, if invested, can swing your net worth by $90,000 over 20 years (16:10).
• Risk of Permanent Ultra-Frugality
  • Many in the FI community have trouble switching to “spend mode” due to deeply ingrained habits.
  • “Often when we reach FI, we’re having to practice something very different from the skills that got us there.” (37:43)
• Skill of Spending (Mr. Money Mustache Reference)
  • The transition from expert saver to confident spender is a critical, under-discussed phase.

Facing Fear and the “Unknown” in Retirement Drawdown

• Behavioral Barriers
  • “Even a really bad known situation... is preferable to the unknown. The antidote... is seen when people meet others who have already left their jobs or drawn down.” (22:57, paraphrased)
• Common FI Planning Errors
  • Not accounting for future cash flows (especially Social Security)
  • Failure to aggregate net worth across all accounts

What Is the 4% Rule, Really?

• Academic Origin, Not a Personalized Drawdown Strategy
  • The “4% rule” is based on a set of strict, static assumptions and was never meant as a flexible, real-world drawdown rule.
  • “The 4% rule was never intended to be a drawdown strategy.” (46:20)
• Withdrawing at 4% can be too rigid
  • Real people adjust (spending, earning, lifestyle) in response to market swings, life events, and other changes.

The “Everyone Adjusts” Guardrail Framework

Historical Analysis As a Planning Anchor

• Use extensive US market data (since 1871) to test how your plan fairs across extreme market events (e.g., Great Depression, Stagflation, Dotcom Crash).
• Modern tools (e.g., Engaging Data, Early Retirement Now Toolbox, FireCalc, Projection Lab) allow anyone to run personalized simulations.

Guardrails: Dynamic Safe Withdrawal in Practice

Setting Guardrails (Example Workflow, ~63:57)

Default Case: $1,000,000 portfolio, $40,000 annual spend (4% Rule base)

• Choose a Starting “Chance of Success” (e.g., 90%)
  • At 90% success, historical analysis shows you could spend ~$43,900/year (4.39%).
• Establish Lower Guardrail (e.g., 75%)
  • Calculate the portfolio value at which, if you continued spending that higher amount, your success rate would drop to 75%. Example: if portfolio drops to $901,000.
  • If you hit this guardrail, recalculate withdrawal to restore your original 90% success rate (e.g., drop to $40,700/year).
• Establish Upper Guardrail (100%)
  • If your portfolio increases beyond a certain value (e.g., $1.19M), your success climbs to 100%. That means you’re “underspending” and can safely increase annual spending (e.g., increase to $51,800/year).
• Adjust When Needed, Not on a Set Schedule
  • Only when you hit a guardrail do you adjust; not a daily or constant recalculation.

“When your portfolio hits it, you can comfortably and confidently spend more.” — Aubrey (70:56)

Why Not Aim for 100% Success?

• 100% success = certain underspending
  • “We don’t want 100% chance of success. That almost always means you’ve worked too long or are spending too little or both.” — Aubrey (51:41)

How Conservative Should You Be?

• Recommended starting points are 90/75/100 for most, but personal risk tolerance and simulation results should calibrate your guardrails.
  • “If that small amount of money can make that big a difference (re: adjustments and spending), and it does, then that amount of adjustment can make that big a difference.” — Aubrey (81:44)
• Even lower success rates (down to 50% in risk-based adaptive frameworks) might still be reasonable, as legacy value (not running out of money) is often the only thing that meaningfully changes, not initial withdrawal safety.
  • Reference: Derek Tharp, “Why 50% Probability of Success Is Actually a Viable Monte Carlo Retirement Projection” (77:22)

Takeaways for Listeners

• You Probably Can FI Sooner Or Spend More
  • With risk-based guardrails, most would-be retirees could retire earlier or spend more, versus following a rigid 4%/100% success mindset.
• Actionable Steps
  • Download Aubrey’s free guardrail presentation/spreadsheet: openpath.financial/guardrails
  • Use community tools to model your own guardrails and comfort levels.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Everyone Adjusts. It’s not a set-it-and-forget-it FI number—it’s a lifelong process.” — Aubrey (00:58)
• “Frugality is still the single highest-leverage lever—$100/month cut is a $90,000 swing over 20 years.” — Brad (16:10)
• “The antidote to [fear of the unknown] is seeing someone else who’s done it.” — Aubrey (22:57)
• “100% success is 100% chance you’ve underspent. That’s not a win either.” — Aubrey (51:41)
• “The 4% rule was never intended to be a drawdown strategy.” — Aubrey (46:20)
• “Even small adjustments compound over a lifetime—don’t wait for permission to spend or retire if your numbers already work.” — Brad (83:06)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00–03:40: Introduction, Aubrey’s background, “Everyone Adjusts” concept
• 09:04: Philosophy of “retire often,” learning from business experiments
• 12:53–14:45: FI as a living organism; the origins and importance of frugality
• 16:10: $100/month expense cut = $90,000 swing; math of frugality
• 22:57: Power of community and in-person events for overcoming fear
• 27:49: Net worth statements and why people overestimate “years left” to FI
• 33:23: Mindfulness, honesty, and importance of facing the numbers
• 46:20: “4% rule was never intended to be a drawdown strategy.”
• 51:35: “Chance of success = chance of underspending” – historical analysis
• 63:57: Guardrail methodology: how to set and use them in your own plan
• 70:15–74:55: How to choose your own guardrail levels, the downside of over-conservatism
• 77:22: Exploring even more aggressive adjustments (down to 50% success)
• 81:44: Risks of working “too long”… real costs of over-conservatism
• 83:06: Conclusion, actionable steps, gratitude

Resources & Next Steps

• Aubrey’s Guardrails Framework, Presentation, and Tools:
  • openpath.financial/guardrails
• Projection Lab – Advanced retirement/guardrail modeling
• Early Retirement Now Safe Withdrawal Rate Toolbox – Historical safe withdrawal analysis
• CampFI & ChooseFI Local Groups – In-person FI community to support your journey

Final Takeaways

• FI is a journey, not a number.
• Dynamic, data-driven guardrails give you the confidence to retire earlier and spend more (rather than oversaving and underspending out of fear).
• Connect with community and use the “Everyone Adjusts” approach to make more intentional, joyful choices along your FI path.

“This opened my eyes in a way they haven’t been in a while… Just having these guardrails, it gives me numbers to have on paper, to have in my mind and to understand what I should look out for when my net worth both decreases potentially but increases as well.” — Brad (84:40)

For more, check out: openpath.financial/guardrails and join a local ChooseFI group!