← Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files
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- [00:03]
A
This is a Global Player original podcast.
- [00:07]
B
It was a shocker. He basically castigated mainstream European allies that were in government, told them off for, quote, unquote, not respecting free speech, not respecting democracy. And by that, he meant trying to do everything that they could do to head off the negative policy impacts of the very far right.
- [00:26]
A
What foreign policy is about is what's good for the world, what's good for the United States. And for Donald Trump and his administration to turn his whole foreign policy over to a bunch of political hacks because they want to push things to the right is a disgrace.
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B
Given my experience with 1.0 and the collective nervous breakdown that the whole world had over Trump and his foreign policy, I decided to give it five or six months before opining and judging and trying to analyze what went on. Well, that lasted precisely two weeks. Hi, everybody, and welcome to this quite unusual, no, slightly unusual episode of the X Files because it's the end of the year for us. And what we're going to do is give it a Christmas vibe. Well, not really, because there's not much that's cheerful to talk about or much that's festive. But we are going to be dedicating this to Donald Trump and his effect on the world. And that's a pretty big main story to talk about. So let's get started. I'm Christiana Manpour, actually, sitting here in my CNN office, being a longtime correspondent and an anchor, trying to figure out what's going on in the world from, from being in the field and also on set by trying to interview world leaders and getting information out of them and trying to hold them to account. Jamie?
- [01:38]
A
Well, I'm Jamie Rubin. I worked for two presidents at the State Department, Bill Clinton, and most recently, Joe Biden, working closely with Secretary Blinken.
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B
What we're going to start to do is talk about the biggest stories of the year, and they do all actually revolve around Trump in one way or the other. And then we're going to talk about the two main stories each one of us has picked as the biggest story for us. And then obviously, we'll have our recommendations. So let us get started. Jamie, just from my perspective, I remember in February, which was just literally 30 days after the inauguration, I was giving a talk in Washington, and I told the audience that I had decided, given my experience with 1.0 and the collective nervous breakdown that the whole world had over Trump and his foreign policy, I decided to give it five or six months before opining and judging and trying to analyze what Went on. Well, that lasted precisely another two weeks. And then it was impossible. It was impossible not to judge. So I would say, and not to analyze, because from day one, he just went off, you know, off the normal traditional path of foreign policy, starting with all his executive orders, that rash of executive orders. And I had just come back from the Munich security Conference, where little did we know, JD Vance had actually set in motion Trump's European and world policy, which has just been formalized in the new National Security Review. So, Jamie, give us a little bit of the beginning of the year.
- [03:11]
A
Yes. Well, look, I left the administration last day of office in January and knew that things were going to change under Donald Trump as they changed the first time around. But I don't think I imagined that they would change as dramatically as they have, because last time around, the people around President Trump were what you might call professionals. They were people with experience in their fields. There were people who maybe I didn't agree with everything, but that I respect as serious players in the world of international affairs and national security. This time around, that didn't happen. This time around, President Trump picked loyalists. He picked some people that are mind blowing in their incompetence. And I think before we get into the larger strategic picture, it's worth pointing out President Trump has used the powers of the presidency to their maximum degree. And that enables him to say and do things all day long that throw asunder policies, ideas, reputations, guardrails, and they change all the time. And so it's often very, very difficult to find a through line, to find a theme, to find a strategy. And unfortunately, journalism, in their effort to be logical and to tell people what's going on, sometimes they do what, what we call sane washing. They turn things that are incompetent, incomprehensible, or off the wall into something that sounds sane because they're trying to write a logical sentence to lead. Seinwashing has, you know, probably given the Trump administration more credit than it deserves.
- [04:52]
B
One of the big issues, and I'm sitting in. Well, we used to be part of the eu. We are here in the UK still part of Europe, and this year has ended with this national security doctrine which they've just put out, which, as I said, solidifies what J.D. vance started to roll out at the Munich Security Conference in February, where he literally shocked a room full of very senior allies, defense ministers, foreign ministers, national security intellig, all those people in a room to listen to the Vice President of the United States. The first major foreign policy speech of Trump 2.0. And it was a shocker. He basically castigated mainstream European allies that were in government. He told them off for, quote, unquote, not respecting free speech, not respecting democracy. And by that, he meant by trying to do everything that they could do to head off the negative policy impacts of the very far right. Whether it was in Germany with AfD, which was on the brink of an election back in February, whether it's in France with Marine Le Pen and her National Front, whether it's, you know, in Slovakia and all those other places, Hungary, basically aligning the United States with the far right, never talking about human rights, never talking about democracy. The only freedom of speech, which is a democratic ideal, was to allow essentially what many people call hate speech and far right speech. It would be hate speech if it was far left speech as well, if they were hateful. But saying that European leaders were trying to tamp that down. And honestly, I will never forget, I mean, they were ashen faced when they came out, the former foreign minister of Spain just sort of bumped into me and she said, disgraceful. Inside the room, the German foreign minister, defense minister, sorry, Pistorius, Boris Pistorius, stood up and said, no, this is not acceptable, because in Germany, JD Vance was pushing the political fortunes of a neo Nazi, you know, group, essentially.
- [06:55]
A
And that's what's so incomprehensibly hypocritical about them. They say, and Donald Trump said at the UN that they believe and want to focus on the sovereignty of states and that the United States has no business telling other countries in the Arab world, for example, how to push democracy or human rights. But yet, when it comes to Europe, they do want to interfere. And this is one of the themes. There are a few themes, but one theme is politics. The Trump administration has used its foreign and national security policy to push their own politics from the right. And so when they attack Europe in this way, when they say there's going to be civilizational erasure in Europe, it's only because they want the right wing to grow in Europe. And so their policies and practices, for the first time in American history, are openly and clearly intended to push the politics of Europe to the right, to what they believe is a closer alignment with their own policies. That's not what foreign policy is about. What foreign policy is about is what's good for the world, what's good for the United States, and what's good for individuals. And for Donald Trump and his administration to turn his whole foreign policy over to a bunch of political hacks because they want to push things to the right is a disgrace. But the second thing that we haven't mentioned, we have to mention quickly is to the way in which it's become about Trump Inc. They have used foreign affairs and the actions of their family members and friends and son in laws and friends of son in laws to turn the negotiators and negotiators over to businessmen who are trying to make money out of American foreign policy. It's never happened before. I believe when the Democrats take over Congress, hopefully this coming year, these things are going to be investigated and we're going to find out some horrifying ways in which the president has used his power of the presidency to enrich himself and his family.
- [09:03]
B
There is actually, you know, an article that's just been written precisely about that. Is it policy making or deal making? I'll find it sort of like the new oligarchy, which, which they say that the United States has become under, under Trump. But I think, look, obviously this affects the war in Europe. Again, this new national security doctrine doesn't say much about containing China, says very little about containing Russia, much more almost shrugging off the Russia threat while actually saying that it needs to, what did it say, mobilize to confront or contain mainstream Europe. I mean, it's just, it's even hard to understand what that exactly means. But Trump has given an interview to Politico in which he doubled down on his allies, calling European allies weak, calling Europe a decaying continent. We know he hates the eu. He wrongly said even before being president that the EU was created to destroy America. Nothing could be further from the truth. But he's cast them all to the wind. So can we just talk about how that's affected the big story, which is Russia's war on Ukraine and where that will go when you have a United States that seems to be now favoring Russia and not wanting to do the hard work of keeping up support for Ukraine, which is nominally, at least it has been until now, a US Ally and certainly a European ally.
- [10:32]
A
When Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a complete and profound realignment in Europe towards a very responsible policy. Germany and France have responded, I would say, brilliantly. Germany's doubled its defense budget and France has initiated possibly, you know, military service for young people. And the spending in Europe has skyrocketed on defense because they realize that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a world historic event. The Europeans have done well. And for Donald Trump to criticize them is just an example of how he doesn't Understand the power of the United States. The power of the United States has always come from our unique position as a leading power who has friends and allies and European allies. Everything we've ever done, that's wonderful, that's good, that's safe, that's secure, we've done with our European allies. Instead, he's pulled support for Ukraine from the. We used to provide them military support because they're the victims of a war. And instead he's forced the Europeans to do all the military assistance to Ukraine if they buy American weapons, of course. And meanwhile, he's appeased Putin by constantly giving him the benefit of the doubt on issue after issue after issue and pursuing a negotiation that a lot of people, including yourself and Tom Friedman and others, compared to Neville Chamberlain's visit to Hitler when appeasement was proposed prior to World War II.
- [12:05]
B
And I think what's really interesting, and I can't tell whether Trump has their number or they have Trump's number. Even better, look, the Russia, the latest plan, the one that was quickly cast aside by Europe and Ukraine, but the 28 point plan makes it very clear that Russia knows exactly who it's dealing with. So it's, a lot of it is couched in business terms, Russia telling America how it could benefit so greatly from, you know, re establishing ties with Russia. The same thing is happening in the Middle east, you know, in this endless horrendous war between Israel and the Palestinians, which continues despite Trump's ceasefire and 20 point plan, just on a lower, less officially recognized level. But the killing continues. No phase two, no move towards peace. Now the west bank is under serious threat, as is Gaza, which has de facto been partitioned and Hamas still entrenched. But what I'm saying is all of these so called peace deals have been couched by leaders in that region or whatever region who understand that what Trump and his negotiators understand best is, is real estate and other kind of business deals. And that's obviously a major problem because business, as we know, is not like foreign policy. But look, I'm also really concerned about, you know, traditional allies. Remember in the, in the Biden administration, they were trying to do, you guys were trying to do whatever you could to make China less of a threat. So one of those things was trying to cleave India towards the United States as opposed to where it, it pretty much was looking, you know, Russia and China. And it appears that obviously Putin's trip to see Modi just at the end of this year was a very big rapprochement and it led to all sorts of headlines about has Trump lost India? It's really important. The world's biggest democracy, Trump likes to claim, having solved whatever six, seven, eight, you know, wars, including the India Pakistan conflict that sort of briefly erupted. But because he put his stock and all his, you know, cards in with Pakistan, it pissed off India. And India, which had already been slapped with a 50% tariff because of the oil it was taking from Russia, decided, well, you know, what are we gonna do? We better stand by Russia because it's humiliating for us. And it's, to me, worrying because it means he doesn't really understand what's up.
- [14:37]
A
Trump won, correctly identified the threat from China as the great challenge for the United States. And Trump recognized that problem. And I give him credit for. And then President Biden followed that up by helping to build alliances together. Those alliances shifted the balance of power towards freedom and towards security with the United States. So that India policy was something that was built by seven administrations. Here's what happened. You mentioned the Pakistan India mini conflict that took place. Trump was talking to the Pakistanis, invited the chief of staff of the Pakistani army to the White House for lunch, and in the process claimed credit for ending that mini conflict. When India refused to give him that credit because, of course, he wasn't responsible for ending the conflict. That's what turned Donald Trump against India. Not strategy, not commercial diplomacy. He was mad at the Indian leader, Modi, who used to be his friend, because Modi wouldn't nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize, which the Pakistanis did.
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B
Right in the Oval Office.
- [15:47]
A
And then he slapped the 50% tariffs on. And what happened? India realized they couldn't rely on the United States under Donald Trump, and they actually created a new policy. They have a name for it. It's called a triple entente. Russia, China, and India. With India going back full in towards Russia when they were moving away from Russia for personal pique. Donald Trump has now thrown asunder the relationship between the United States and India, which, as I said, the center of gravity, where a billion people are now aligning themselves with our adversaries, Russia and China. And this is a probably a single example of one of the most profoundly stupid things that's happened this year.
- [16:33]
B
Let's see if there's something we can say economically, militarily, environmentally, not whether there is some kind of success we can point to on the international stage that the world has benefited from in Trump 2.0 year one.
- [16:49]
A
Well, let me give it a whirl. Look, some will probably disagree with me, maybe even you, Christiane. I think there has been a step forward, what I might call a mini successful diplomacy in the Middle East. The Gaza wars, the full scale war that was going on, has now come to something like a non ceasefire ceasefire. The full fledged conflict has stopped for the moment. That doesn't mean Gaza's fixed, it doesn't mean the Israelis aren't killing people. It doesn't mean that the war is over. But there was a step forward. All the hostages were released, the bodies are still coming back to the Israelis. The Israelis pull back from huge sections of Gaza and they laid the groundwork theoretically for a longer term peace using frankly the plan that Tony Blinken had put forward for them to do with the help of Tony Blair. That mini success, which was widely touted all over the world and exaggerated in its significance, did stop the full flow. But because they don't know how to actually conduct real diplomacy, they put these 20 point plans down and they got it passed by the UN Security Council, but they haven't done the hard work of implementation. But they did stop the full fledged war. And that happened when Trump frankly was furious with Netanyahu for attacking Doha and then Trump forced him to call for a ceasefire. Now it's not a full ceasefire. The war is continuing, but at a much lower level. So I call that a step forward, a modest success.
- [18:26]
B
Okay, so I'm going to disagree a little bit. Clearly the full scale bloodletting had to stop and it did. So thank God for that. But I was just in Doha for the Doha Forum and it was really noticeable how I spoke to the Prime Minister of Qatar, the Foreign Minister, he holds both jobs and the real question is now enforcement. And there is no enforcement, unfortunately, except by Israel because they've partitioned the Gaza Strip and they are in control not just of a small bit, but of a lot of the Gaza Strip. Worse even, or as bad, Hamas is still entrenched in the piece of Gaza that Hamas was in. And there is no decommissioning of weapons and there's no movement towards the so called technocratic government of Palestinians who need to come in and, and fix that situation along with the stabilization force. None of that has happened in the West Bank. It has gone absolutely crazy. The far right ministers, the, I mean, I don't even know what to call them anymore. They are literally walk around with noose pins on their lapels. It's a terrible situation there and of course nobody's paying any attention to that. So next year is going to be very crucial. Nothing will be solved in that region without peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. That's just. And that brings freedom, sovereignty and security to all sides. And at the moment, the guns are less, less crazy than they were. But they're not silent. It's actually still terrible for the people of Gaza because humanitarian aid is not surging. More has come in, but it is not surging. So we're going to take a break. Then when we come back, Jamie and I are going to identify one story each which really stands out. As you know, Trump 2.0 first year. We'll take a break.
- [20:12]
C
Stay cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops. Because, honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is going to give you two free select tools from dewalt, Craftsman or Cobalt when you buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus rewards. Members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in.
- [20:41]
A
Shop.
- [20:41]
C
New December deal drops on Lowe's.com every week this month. Fresh deals, cozy vibes, zero effort.
- [20:52]
B
Let's just explain what we're going to do now. We're each going to take one other big story each to discuss. So which one are you going to choose?
- [21:00]
A
Well, I'm going to choose Venezuela, because this is the year that Donald Trump and the Trump administration initiated a policy that is extremely foolhardy. Within that policy, two things become clear. One, I don't think the adults are running American foreign policy. There's a real question of legality, and there's a real question whether Trump actually is in charge. What's happened is he's created a war against narco terrorists which he's falsely claimed are connected to Maduro, and they're killing people in boats in the Caribbean. And lawyers who really know what they're doing, Real, proper, professional, national security professionals believe the war is illegal and they shouldn't be killing people without legal justification. So we've diverted huge resources, diverted huge attention, all in the hopes of getting Maduro, Maduro to somehow fold capitulate. And why? Because Marco Rubio believes that if Maduro falls and Venezuela is weakened, that will somehow weaken the Cuban government, which is the one that he, as a Cuban American whose family came here from Cuba, he's obsessed with. And so I use it as an example where the incoherence of the conduct of the administration is shown by the fact that Donald Trump doesn't appear to be in charge. It's probably illegal and it's not going to work. The only way to assure the departure of Maduro is to invade the country with hundreds of thousands of troops, which would be the biggest single foreign policy mistake possibly in American history.
- [22:44]
B
And yet the national security doctrine that we've been talking about, which was published and then tweeted about by Trump under his name, does actually double down on this whole spheres of influence, the Western Hemisphere. His he pretty much outlined the Chinese getting that part of the world and Russia getting its part of the world. So there's some kind of coherence in their mind. But I get, I get your point and we'll see how that continues in the new year. But I think for me, obviously being in Europe and being a war correspondent, having been to Ukraine many times since, well, since 2022 in the war, full scale invasion this year for me started with me interviewing Zelensky on stage at the Munich Security Conference in February around the anniversary of the scale invasion. And, and when I asked him, do you think Donald Trump, like the Biden administration, gets it, that they should support the, the victim, the ally, the democratic nation, he looked at me and he said, zelensky, to tell you the truth, we have to work on it. So I said, okay. That was not a full throated, you know, reach out to President Trump. And it showed me his worry from the very beginning. Then a few weeks later, you know, this whole Trump movement to distance Ukraine and embrace Russia was put forward in brilliant and horrible technicolor by the public humiliation of Zelensky in the White House, in the Oval Office. Never before has that ever happened in the history of American foreign policy. Since it's had those Oval Office public meetings. It's never had a public dissing and dressing down and outright mean meanness towards a wartime ally. And I think that really again doubled down for me on what was going to happen to Ukraine. You know, and in the interim, there's been back and forth and depending on who he spoke to, he was up on Ukraine and down on Russia and then up on Russia and down in Ukraine. It's been a roller coaster for the whole year. Then this summer, Jamie, he invited Putin to a pretty much a state visit to, to the United States, to Alaska, Big flyover, remember? Big fly. I mean, it's just unbelievable. But who knows? We all thought, wow, maybe he's going to get something out of it. Nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing. And then the European leaders had to band together. They all had to stick behind Zelensky, they all had to rush to Trump and make sure that everybody understood the parameters and not just to, you know, give Putin the whole shop. So I think all of that has crystallized for me a very, very worrying trend. And the year has ended with, with the European leaders banding together again around Zelensky. And he's saying he's not going to accept giving away territory that Russia hasn't even conquered. And they're going to keep fighting. So we're going to see how it happens. But all of our security and the world's values depend on Ukraine winning or going to get a just peace, not winning every last piece, we understand that of territory, at least not for the moment, but to get a just, just ceasefire and a just peace and one that doesn't threaten the rest of Europe.
- [25:59]
A
Before you leave that just quickly, I think where we ended the year isn't as bad as it could have been in the sense that the United States still is providing some intelligence support to Ukraine. The United States weapons are being purchased by Europeans. Ukraine is fighting with all their effort and all their might. And although Russia makes some progress, there's no such thing sign, no sign whatsoever that Russia can win this war and that as long as the Europeans follow their current course, Zelensky and the people of Ukraine do the hard fighting, despite all the help that China's giving Russia. This war is going to be a stalemate and continue to be a stalemate until the day, and it may take another year, it may take another two years that Vladimir Putin realizes he can't win. And then maybe then we can get a peace agreement.
- [26:49]
B
And just lastly, though, you know, Don Jr. At the Doha Forum basically told everybody that, you know, everybody's tired of Ukraine, the Ukrainian people, the European people want to end this war. It's actually, of course everybody wants to end it, but vast majorities want to see a fair peace and many believe Ukraine can win. So I'm, I'm going to be looking at, given what you just said, how, you know, basically Trump has flung the European allies into the atmosphere. How will they be able to stand up and support Ukraine? And everything does depend, depend on that. So, you know, let's, let's take a break now and come back with our Christmas time recommendations.
- [27:32]
C
Stay cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops. Because honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is going to give you two free select tools from dewalt Craftsman or Cobalt when you Buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus rewards members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in. Shop new December deal drops on Lowe's.com every week. This month, fresh deals, cozy vibes, zero effort.
- [28:12]
B
All right, everybody, we're back and we're going to get give you our Christmas and festive recommendations. No big philosophical track, no, you know, documentary on the horrors of war, but something a lot more Christmasy. Okay, Jamie, you want to go?
- [28:26]
A
Sure. Well, listen, I, as you pointed out, we spent this year doing this podcast. It's been a real challenge and fun and exciting for me to be part of it. And it does focus on the horrors of war sometimes or the, the chaos of the Trump administration, the damage being done to my country. But there is still something wonderful about America that I love. And one of those wonderful things was that time in our country when music was so powerful in the 70s when I was growing up as a teenager. And there's a movie that I always love watching at this time of year. It's called Almost Famous.
- [29:06]
B
Oh, yeah.
- [29:07]
A
About a young boy who joins a rock band on the road and starts writing as a journalist for Rolling Stone magazine. And it's just brilliant. And I've watched it, I don't know, five, six, seven times and I just never get tired of it. It's got all the funny self revelation about a boy growing up. It's got the fun part about being close to famous people and what that does to people. And they even came up with a word I'd never heard before. We'd all heard of the word groupies, but they called the people who love the bands and travel with them Band aids. So that's the movie I'm gonna choose in the hopes of bringing a little good cheer to people, a good laugh. It occasionally has some tearful moments. It's a powerful story about growing up in America in the 70s, which is kind of what I did.
- [29:57]
B
Well, I didn't. But I did grow up in Iran and in Europe. And Santa Claus and the whole Christmas tradition obviously was very big for me, as it is all over many parts of the world, including America. So mine is schmaltzy and it's called The Christmas Chronicles 2. And it's about Mrs. So I love it because it's focused on Santa's wife, played by the fantastic Goldie Horn, while Santa is played by her real life partner, Kurt Russell. And it is such a great film. It's true. I saw it a few years ago, but I'm sure it still stands up and it's really feel good. And for everybody who believes that, you know, sometimes women around the table really make peace and friendship and all the good things, it's really, really fun. Really, really fun. So that's my recommendation. The Christmas Chronicles 2 let's end with.
- [30:49]
A
A little fun this year, right?
- [30:53]
B
I'll be back next week with a special guest. And Jamie and I will be back the first week of January after New Year. And we wish you all a fabulous, fabulous holiday season. No matter what faith you are, what you practice and who you pray to to or don't. We just wish you all a great time. And most definitely we hope at least I certainly do. I know you do, Jamie, that the next year, 2026 will really be focused on real peace, the hard work that is necessary to forge real and lasting peace. And I believe it can be done. So I'm hopeful there as well.
- [31:27]
A
Amen to that.
- [31:29]
B
Don't forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. You can watch us Christiana Monpour presents on our YouTube channel. You can watch the main episodes, you can watch the bonus episodes. And I'll be back with a special guest next Tuesday. So bye bye to everybody. And don't forget, you can always listen on Global Player. You can download all of that from the App Store or go to globalplayer.com Bye bye from London and goodbye again.
- [31:54]
A
From New York City. This has been a Global Player original production.
- [32:03]
C
Stay cozy, stay home and save big online during Lowe's December deal drops. Because honestly, why go anywhere when the deals come to you? Check this out. Lowe's is going to give you two free select tools from dewalt, Craftsman or Cobalt when you buy a select battery or combo kit. Yep, two tools free. It's basically a holiday miracle. Plus rewards members get free standard shipping all month long. Yet another reason not to leave your couch. Kick back, click around, let the savings roll in. Shop. New December deal drops on Lowe's.com every week this month, fresh deals, cozy vibes, zero effort.