Transcript
A (0:02)
This is a Global Player original podcast.
B (0:08)
It's just one miscalculation after the other. I honestly don't know whether he knows whether he wants to escalate or negotiate.
C (0:15)
Right now, there is a war with no winners going on. The only way this war could be a win is if the regime falls.
B (0:23)
What Trump was threatening was really, really catastrophic. And as Senator Murphy says, a potential war crime. I've been in a war zone. Electricity, whether it be in Iraq, whether it be in Sarajevo, wherever it might be, it is terrifying stuff.
C (0:37)
His base is going nuts. This is not what they voted for.
B (0:45)
Hi, everybody. This is the latest episode of the X Files with me, Christiana Manpour in
C (0:50)
London and Jamie Rubin in Costa Rica.
B (0:53)
And you know what? We thought maybe we could move on, but no. We are now fully into the fourth week of this war, and minute by minute, things change. And it's not just small changes. These are huge, huge changes. President Trump has put out another truth social, you know, post about what he's going to do next. The real question we're going to try to explore today is will Trump escalate or negotiate? And can the Straits of Hormuz be reopened? He's now saying, not the 24 hours that would have expired already, but in five days, should Europe help? And what will the global impact, not just economically, be of all of this? So let's get started. Jamie, over the weekend, there was mass cris and panic because President Trump said that he would give Iran 48 hours to open the Straits of Hormoz or else there would be a mass destruction. He basically said, I will order the destruction or obliteration, in his words, of all Iran's power plants, starting with the biggest, he didn't name it. But the biggest, of course, is at Bushehr, and that's a nuclear power plant. And then he's pulled back. What do you make of his, you know, his latest post, which gives another few days to this threat?
C (2:08)
I think he is, as you said, in a quandary. The only power he has now is to threaten escalation. All the things done up to now have not forced Iran to capitulate, has not forced Iran to commit unconditional surrender. So we're down to the question where President Trump is going to decide whether he supports what I call the former neocons who want this war to go on for a long, long and want to make Iran regime, even if intact, far weaker than it was before the war. And to do that, he's got to eliminate their ability to control the world's oil prices through the Strait of Hormuz. To do that, he's going to have to escalate. So I think he doesn't want to escalate. Look, getting in the mind of Trump is not a place anyone wants to be right now. But if I were in his mind, I think he's looking for a reason to end the war. He sees that it cost a lot more than he expected, and he's going to try to use the threat of escalation to get Iran to stop the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, not begin to use the nuclear material in its enrichment facilities. And that's what he hopes to negotiate, not directly with the Iranians, but through a third party. That's my best guess.
