Podcast Summary: "From Terrorist to Statesman: Syria’s Saviour?"

Podcast: Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files
Date: December 9, 2025
Hosts: Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin

Episode Overview

This episode explores the extraordinary political transformation in Syria one year after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin analyze how Ahmed Al Shara (formerly Abu Muhammad al-Jolani), once labeled a terrorist leader, has become the interim president and a celebrated—even hopeful—figure for many Syrians. Drawing on Amanpour’s recent interview with Al Shara and decades of global affairs experience, the episode contextualizes Syria's new chapter, western policy failures, U.S.-Russia dynamics, ongoing regional tensions (including with Israel), and shifting alliances in light of the latest American National Security Strategy. Candid humor and sharp exchanges infuse this deep dive into a fractured Middle East and a world order in flux.

Segment 1: Syria One Year after Assad (00:08–24:46)

The Fall of Assad: Background and Dynamic Change

• Assad’s Legacy: Assad family’s 53-year rule described as a "quasi-military, one-family dictatorship." Bashar al-Assad’s harsh 2011 response to Arab Spring protests catalyzed civil war.
  • "2011...was the beginning of the worst of the Arab Spring" (Christiane, 01:12)
• Western Policy Missteps: Obama’s unfulfilled “red line” emboldened Assad and enabled Russian intervention.
  • "This was unfortunately one of the low moments of American foreign policy..." (Jamie, 03:29)
  • "We got rid of the chemical weapons...but Russia intervened." (Jamie, 03:37)
• Turning Point: Trump's administration followed through with force against chemical weapons use, issued a pivotal tweet preventing an offensive on Idlib—ironically, the stronghold that would eventually produce Assad’s successor.
  • "Trump decided to tell Putin and Assad not to finish off the rebels in Idlib..." (Jamie, 04:56)

The Rise of Ahmed Al Shara (Abu Muhammad al-Jolani)

• Transformation: From designated terrorist leader to president.
  • "It's a great example of how someone labeled a terrorist...has evolved into...a successful politician." (Jamie, 07:50)
• Power Transition: Al Shara’s advance from Idlib to Damascus was "pretty bloodless," with Assad fleeing, and Russians/Iranians refraining from further intervention (B, 05:57).
• International Legitimacy: Suspension of U.S. sanctions and Al Shara's proactive diplomatic charm offensive (UN, Trump, Saudi Arabia) are noted as key ingredients in rebooting Syria’s international standing.
  • "Trump loves to have peace and successful changes...he quickly suspended sanctions on Syria..." (Jamie, 08:11)
• Popular Support: Arab Barometer poll finds Al Shara with 81% approval—unprecedented since early hopes for Bashar Assad’s leadership.
  • "81% of Syrians are confident in Al Shara..." (Christiane, 09:29)

The Caution of Minorities and Reconciliation Challenges

• Unhealed Wounds: In Alawite/Druze regions, confidence in Al Shara and his government plummets below 40%.
  • "In Latakia, Sueda, Tartus...only 36% (trust) in the president..." (Christiane, 12:38)
• Al Shara Responds:
  • “All the components of Syrian society were part of the revolution...even the Alawites had to pay the price...we have inherited a big problem where all of us are victims.” (Al Shara, 13:45)
• Hosts’ Analysis:
  • “This is a traumatized country...Al Shara is trying to say...we’re gonna go about it in a fair and tolerant way...” (Jamie, 14:42)
  • "Unity is their big national strength and their big objective." (Christiane, 16:30)
• Sanctions & U.S. Influence: Caesar Act sanctions still in place; efforts underway for U.S. Congress to lift them.
  • "He's trying to get the US to lift that...it means a huge amount, this unity business." (Christiane, 16:30)
• Role of Syrian-American Lobbying:
  • “One of my proudest moments was to lobby on behalf of a group of Syrian American doctors...they pushed Congress into passing the Caesar act..." (Jamie, 17:32)

Governance, Women’s Rights, and Electoral Promises

• Al Shara’s Promises: Dismisses theocracy fears, speaks humorously on women’s rights, insists elections will occur in four years.
  • “Don’t you worry. Women have always been strong in Syria, and don’t fear for the women. You should fear for the men...” (Al Shara relayed by Christiane, 19:21)
  • "I asked...he said, no, we're going to have elections...in four years time..." (Christiane, 19:58)
• Rule of Law vs. Democracy:
  • "There are things more important than your first election. It's called the rule of law." (Jamie, 20:47)
• Israeli Tensions:
  • "Massive incursions by Israel...Al Shara was literally...really angry about that. There are many who believe that Israel does not want a united Syria..." (Christiane, 21:59)
  • "This would be the moment for a grand diplomatic initiative by Israel...but instead they're...relying just on their military...long term, stupid." (Jamie, 22:37)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "You cannot believe that a human being at the head of a government can order his henchmen to do what they did. And including children." (Christiane, 00:49/18:45)
• "He couldn't communicate, man. I mean, the guy was so stiff. This guy looks like he was a born communicator. So he has that on his side." (Christiane on the difference between Assad and Al Shara, 24:07)

Segment 2: U.S. National Security Strategy and Transatlantic Rift (25:23–34:11)

New U.S. National Security Strategy: "America Right of the Far Right"

• Summary: Trump administration strategy alienates Europe, embraces Russia, pushes "civilizational" fears, and espouses a contradictory nationalism.
  • “This essentially puts America to the right of the far right in Europe, basically putting Europe out into the cold...” (Christiane, 25:23)
• Jamie’s Critique:
  • "At its core, there's a fundamental hypocrisy in the document..." (Jamie, 26:42)
  • "America is the idea of a nation of laws...a nation of immigrants. So this is a national security strategy of a muddled, hypocritical, contradictory set of principles..." (Jamie, 26:42)
• European Reaction:
  • European leaders, such as Estonia's former PM Kaja Kallas (now top EU Foreign Policy official), remain diplomatic but defensive.
    • “I actually read the European part...there’s a lot of criticism, but I think some of it is also true...US is still our biggest ally.” (Kallas, 28:54)
  • “They want to use national security policies...to push European politics to the right...it has no business in a national security strategy.” (Jamie, 30:15)

Implications for Russia, Ukraine, and Transatlantic Relations

• Ukraine’s Predicament: Aid disruptions and ambiguous U.S. policy embolden Russia.
  • "Putin is making advances and they're quite significant...the difference between a dirty deal for Ukraine and a filthy deal for Ukraine." (Christiane, 33:21)
• European Dilemma:
  • "What matters in Ukraine is, is what the Europeans do to support Ukraine...The major theme of European leaders is...we've got to work with Trump...rather than confronting them." (Jamie, 32:05)

Segment 3: Recommendations (34:46–38:38)

Reading & Culture Picks

• Christiane recommends reading Marco Rubio's controversial substack targeting South Africa and the dignified response from South Africa’s Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola.
  • "It is really dignified. It is absolutely the response of a sovereign nation..." (Christiane, 35:59)
• Jamie suggests:
  • TV: Slow Horses (spy drama starring Gary Oldman).
  • Music: The band “Betty,” lauding their artistic and cultural impact, including LGBT representation.

Episode Takeaways

• Syria’s cautious hope: The arc of Ahmed Al Shara from jihadist to transitional president is compared with global examples of political reinvention. Widespread trauma and exhaustion temper high approval ratings and promises of a tolerant, modernizing Syria. Challenges remain over minority rights, remaining sanctions, and the threat of authoritarian relapse.
• Western policy soul-searching: U.S.-Europe-Russia strategic realignment continues to play out with serious consequences for Ukraine and for the future of Western alliances.
• The need for humility and realism in foreign policy: Respect for legal frameworks, honest assessment of western mistakes, and skepticism toward quick-fix democratic transitions.

Key Timestamps

• 00:08–01:12 – Setting the Syrian context and trauma under Assad
• 03:29–05:57 – U.S. and Russian intervention, Trump’s turning point
• 07:50–09:29 – Al Shara’s diplomatic rise, poll results
• 12:38–14:39 – Minorities’ fears, Al Shara’s response
• 17:32–18:45 – Caesar Act sanctions and Syrian-American advocacy
• 19:21–21:59 – Elections, women's rights, Israel’s incursions
• 25:23–30:15 – U.S. National Security Strategy and Europe drift
• 31:17–33:21 – Ukraine at a crossroads, U.S./Europe policy splits
• 34:46–38:38 – Cultural recommendations

Memorable Quote

“This is a traumatized country... Al Shara is trying to say... we’re gonna go about it in a fair and tolerant way... because what they want is the rest of the world to reinvest... to help them turn what is, you know, essentially one giant battlefield into a place that can thrive again.”
– Jamie Rubin (14:42)