Summary of "Negotiating with a Dictator: What Will End Putin's War in Ukraine?"

Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files delves deep into the complexities surrounding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, exploring potential avenues to end President Vladimir Putin's aggressive ambitions. Hosted by the esteemed journalist Christiane Amanpour and former U.S. State Department official Jamie Rubin, the episode offers a nuanced analysis of geopolitical tensions, leadership dynamics, and the interplay of international diplomacy.

1. The Stalemate in Peace Negotiations

The episode opens with a critical examination of former President Donald Trump's recent statements regarding peace talks with Putin. Trump emphasized the necessity of a direct meeting between himself and Putin to broker peace, declaring, "Nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together, okay?" (00:32). Amanpour and Rubin highlight the futility of these talks, especially in light of Trump's unfulfilled attempts to initiate meaningful dialogue during his presidency.

Christiane Amanpour underscores the complexity of the situation by stating, "It's not up to Trump, it's not up to Zelensky, it's not up to Europe, it's not up to American forces... We're going to find out whether Putin wants to stop the war." (01:07). This sets the stage for a broader discussion on the factors influencing Putin's decision-making and the international community's role in mediating the conflict.

2. Biden's Leadership and Health Concerns

The conversation shifts to President Joe Biden, exploring whether his administration could have altered the course of the war with Ukraine. Rubin references recent challenges faced by Biden, including a cancer diagnosis and criticisms regarding his mental acuity. He mentions a book casting doubts on Biden's capacity to lead effectively, questioning, "Would Biden have made any difference had he still been in office?" (02:02).

Amanpour defends Biden's legacy, recounting his long-standing relationship with the president and his pivotal role in negotiating the release of American hostages. She reminisces about assisting Biden during personal and professional crises, indicating his steadfastness despite personal health battles. Amanpour stresses that Biden's diplomatic efforts, particularly through Secretary of State Tony Blinken, were crucial in securing the release of numerous Americans detained abroad (04:26).

3. Analyzing Trump's Potential Influence

Rubin raises concerns about whether Trump possesses the necessary tools to influence Putin effectively. He reflects on Trump's previous meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, where significant progress was stalled despite high-profile engagements (18:33). The discussion delves into the skepticism surrounding Trump's ability to broker peace, emphasizing that Putin's resolve remains unshaken.

Amanpour concurs, suggesting that Putin is unlikely to change his stance solely based on Trump's involvement. She introduces the concept of "pain threshold," explaining that sustained military pressure and economic sanctions might eventually compel Putin to reconsider his actions (16:05). However, she remains doubtful about the immediate impact of Trump's negotiations.

4. European Dynamics and Support for Ukraine

The hosts examine recent developments in Europe, particularly Romania's election, which could influence the region's support for Ukraine. Rubin highlights the election of a pro-Ukraine leader in Romania as a positive outcome, contrasting it with the potential rise of a leader sympathetic to Putin's agenda (16:34). This shift is seen as a critical factor in maintaining robust support and assistance for Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict.

Amanpour emphasizes the role of European nations in sustaining pressure on Russia through sanctions and military aid. She points out that the collective effort of NATO and European countries is fundamental in presenting a united front against Russian aggression (17:57).

5. The Historical Context of Putin's Ascendancy

In the latter part of the episode, Rubin and Amanpour reflect on Putin's rise to power and his longstanding strategies to consolidate authority. Rubin shares insights from his documentary work, illustrating Putin's early maneuvers to entrench himself as a dominant figure in Russian politics (31:28). Amanpour adds depth by recounting an encounter with Putin in the late 1990s, highlighting his manipulative tactics and ruthless approach to governance (27:55).

They discuss the implications of past policies, such as Angela Merkel's strategies to integrate Russia economically into the West, which inadvertently empowered Putin's ambitions. The hosts critique the West's delayed recognition of the threat posed by Putin, suggesting that earlier and more decisive actions might have curtailed his aggressive policies (30:33).

6. Missed Opportunities and Future Strategies

Amanpour and Rubin contemplate the missed opportunities in foreign policy that allowed Putin's influence to grow unchecked. Rubin cites the U.S. hesitancy during the Obama administration to respond robustly to crises in Syria and Ukraine, leading to Russia's increased assertiveness (34:10). They argue that a more proactive stance, including timely military support and unwavering sanctions, could have mitigated the current conflict's severity.

Looking forward, the hosts advocate for sustained international pressure and enhanced military support to Ukraine as essential strategies to push Putin towards negotiation. They emphasize the importance of unity among Western allies and the need for a clear, unwavering commitment to uphold democratic values and territorial integrity (18:26).

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Amanpour and Rubin reaffirming the critical importance of steadfast leadership and international solidarity in resolving the war in Ukraine. They stress that while the path to peace is fraught with challenges, a combination of sustained pressure, strategic diplomacy, and unwavering support for Ukraine remains the most viable path to ending Putin's aggression.

Notable Quotes:

• Donald Trump: "Nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together, okay? ... And I don't believe anything's going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together. But we're going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying." (00:32)

• Christiane Amanpour: "We're going to find out whether Putin wants to stop the war. And so far he doesn't." (01:21)

• Jamie Rubin: "You're gonna have to say something. You can't just wave on a podcast." (36:21)

• Christiane Amanpour: "I think the invasion of Ukraine is the defining moment of my time in government and in foreign affairs. It's the most important thing that's happened certainly since 9/11." (17:26)

This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of the multifaceted challenges in negotiating peace with a determined aggressor. Through insightful dialogue and expert analysis, Amanpour and Rubin offer listeners a deeper understanding of the geopolitical landscape shaping the future of Ukraine and international relations.