Who gets a bomb? The Middle East’s nuclear race

Summary

Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files

Episode: Who Gets a Bomb? The Middle East’s Nuclear Race
Release Date: July 1, 2025

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Introduction and Historical Context

In this compelling episode of The Ex Files, renowned journalist Christiane Amanpour and former U.S. State Department official Jamie Rubin delve into the intricate and perilous landscape of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. They unravel the historical threads that have led to the current state of nuclear ambitions in the region, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical tensions at play.

Notable Quote:

“Forget about a new world order – right now, there’s no world order.” — Christiane Amanpour [00:00]

Personal Narratives: Amanpour's Iranian Roots

Christiane Amanpour shares her personal experiences growing up in Tehran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. She recounts the dramatic changes her family endured as the Shah's regime fell and the Islamic Republic took hold, highlighting the stark transformation of Iranian society and the impact on everyday life.

Notable Quote:

“Things are never going to be the same again in this country.” — Amanpour [02:00]

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Historical Ties

The discussion transitions to Iran's nuclear program, tracing its origins back to the U.S. "Atoms for Peace" initiative under President Eisenhower, which initially supported Iran's nuclear energy development. However, the program's trajectory shifted as geopolitical dynamics evolved, leading to Iran's current pursuit of nuclear capabilities.

Notable Quote:

“The Non Proliferation Treaty was successful...now there are three countries that we can talk about, India, Pakistan, and North Korea that have gone nuclear outside of the non-proliferation Treaty.” — Jamie Rubin [21:07]

Lessons from North Korea

Jamie Rubin draws parallels between Iran and North Korea, emphasizing the challenges of nuclear non-proliferation. He critiques the "maximalist" strategies employed by past U.S. administrations, which he argues contributed to North Korea's eventual development of nuclear weapons despite initial agreements to curtail their program.

Notable Quote:

“Military action can be a part of the equation, but it cannot solve the problem because you don't know what's going on on the ground unless you have inspectors and you have a diplomatic arrangement.” — Jamie Rubin [31:17]

The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Its Efficacy

The hosts examine the effectiveness of the NPT, established in 1968 to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament. While acknowledging its successes in limiting the number of nuclear-armed states, Amanpour and Rubin discuss the treaty's limitations, particularly concerning countries like Israel, India, and Pakistan, which have developed nuclear arsenals outside the treaty framework.

Notable Quote:

“The goal here is to make sure that Israel...doesn't acknowledge it has nuclear weapons. It doesn't say it has them, it's not publicly discussed.” — Jamie Rubin [41:12]

Israel's Nuclear Capability and Regional Dynamics

Amanpour and Rubin delve into Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal, comparing its status with that of Iran. They discuss the strategic ambiguities surrounding Israel's nuclear capabilities and the international community's varying responses to different nuclear states, highlighting a double standard in global non-proliferation efforts.

Notable Quote:

“Israel is not perceived that way by Europeans, by Americans, by many countries around the world...But Iran has called for death to Israel and has brandished its weapons capabilities by enriching uranium to 60%.” — Jamie Rubin [44:24]

U.S. Foreign Policy: From Diplomacy to Military Action

The conversation shifts to U.S. foreign policy approaches under different administrations. Rubin criticizes the Trump administration's "maximalist" strategies, arguing that short-term, aggressive tactics may undermine long-term diplomatic solutions. He advocates for a balanced approach that combines military action with robust diplomatic efforts and international inspections to effectively contain Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Notable Quote:

“Donald Trump's presidency...has the attention span of a gnat. These problems require long-term diplomacy.” — Jamie Rubin [34:13]

Future Outlook: Containment vs. Capitulation

Amanpour and Rubin conclude by weighing the potential outcomes of current policies. They express concern that aggressive military actions without sustained diplomatic efforts could push Iran further away from cooperation, increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation. The hosts emphasize the need for comprehensive strategies that prioritize containment and international collaboration over coercion and ultimatums.

Notable Quote:

“The goal is to contain Iran's program. Make sure you know where it all is and make sure you'll have plenty of warning if they were to break out.” — Jamie Rubin [35:21]

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Key Takeaways

• Historical Influence: The U.S. played a pivotal role in Iran's initial nuclear development through the Atoms for Peace program, inadvertently setting the stage for future proliferation.
• Non-Proliferation Challenges: The NPT has been effective in limiting nuclear-armed states but struggles with exceptions like Israel, India, and Pakistan, revealing a persistent double standard.
• Comparative Analysis: Lessons from North Korea's nuclear journey caution against aggressive policies that may backfire and exacerbate proliferation risks.
• Policy Recommendations: A balanced approach combining military action with sustained diplomatic efforts and international inspections is essential for effective nuclear containment in the Middle East.

Conclusion

This episode of The Ex Files offers a deep dive into the complexities of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Through personal narratives and expert analysis, Amanpour and Rubin illuminate the historical and geopolitical factors that influence Iran's nuclear ambitions, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of one of today's most pressing global issues.

Transcript

[Jamie Rubin]

This is a Global Player original podcast.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So you're what, Jamie, curious about my T shirt?

[Jamie Rubin]

Yeah. What is it? I think it's about pressure. Pressure is a privilege. It is a privilege.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yes. And don't forget it. And guess who coined that. The great, wonderful Federer. Billie Jean King.

[Jamie Rubin]

Oh, Billie Jean King.

[Christiane Amanpour]

She's going to be mad at you when she listens to this.

[Jamie Rubin]

Well, Billie Jean is our friend and we love Billie Jean. And I made a mistake.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yes, you made a mistake. Because she has not just been a brilliant tennis champion, but a champion for women and girls rights. And everything she does is to promote essentially the progress of women and girls and to have an equal status with the men, including equal pay, which she brought more than 50 years ago now to the Grand Slam. So pressure is a privilege. I've got that on because it's been a highly pressured couple of weeks with this Iran, Israel, US War. This week, we're winding back the clock a little bit to take a more historical, historical look at a couple of major issues which face the world right now. So, of course, Iran continues to dominate the headlines. But what was it like before the Islamic Revolution of 1979? I'll take you back a little bit to the Tehran I grew up in and try to explore just how radically life has changed for people there since the Islamic regime took over. That was 45 years ago.

[Jamie Rubin]

Plus, we're going to look at the whole question of nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons and who has them and who doesn't. Why do some countries seem to get away with having them and why others get pressure to give them up? Israel, Pakistan and North Korea have the bomb and yet everyone is focused on Iran trying to get the bomb. Is that right? Why is that? We're going to look at all those hard questions.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Hello and welcome to the X Files with me, Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin. I am a longtime correspondent for CNN and I host my own program now.

[Jamie Rubin]

And I'm Jamie Rubin, senior official in the State Department under Presidents Clinton and President Biden.

[Christiane Amanpour]

You know, Jamie, there's been a lot of talk in this last couple of weeks about not just Iran's nuclear program, but also where are the people, where is the country, what is the history, etc. And people are looking back before the revolution and looking forward. So of course, I grew up in Iran and I happened to be on my year out of high school in Tehran during 1978 when the revolution started to really boil against the Shah. So the anti Shah protesters would were really gathering steam and really gathering Ahead. And the thing I remember so clearly was that the Shah eventually declared martial law and we had soldiers on our streets. I mean, this was unheard of. Obviously. You know, there was plenty of surveillance and security and intelligence throughout in this monarchy. But soldiers on the streets with their weapons remember being out past curfew, which was either 8 or 9 o' clock with my dad. And we'd come back from a friend's for dinner, and the soldiers kind of shouted at us, where are you going? What are you doing? And luckily we were very close to home, so my dad got us out of that problem. But that's when I began to understand what was going on. And again, with my mom sitting on the stoop of our house, listening to the voice of Ayatollah Khomeini, who was in exile, but he and his followers had managed to smuggle cassette tapes of him in, urging people on to revolt against the Shah. I mean, we could hear these being played and broadcast out of the loudspeakers at the minarets, at the mosques. I mean, honestly, it was so chilling and different for those of us who. My father was a monarchist. We were not, you know, Islamic revolutionaries, although some of my family did go and march and did believe there needed to be this change. But it was such a strange experience and we were scared and we wondered what was going to happen. And my father, you know, had said, things are never going to be the same again in this country. And I don't know what's going to become of us because, of course, we grew up in a very pro Western Iran, you know, where girls and boys had the same, you know, activities where we didn't think that was, you know, it was going to be about religion. And my dad was not.

[Jamie Rubin]

You never wore a headscarf, right?

[Christiane Amanpour]

No, never wore a headscarf. Although, of course, many, many did. And those were mostly, you know, you know, people in the villages, they were the conservatives, they were religious. They were in the villages mostly. But in Tehran, you saw much less of that. And of course, that's because in the early 1920s, when the Shah's father, Reza Shah Pahlavi, came to power, having deposed the previous dynasty, he tried very fast to modernize Iran. And one of the ways he did it, one of the issues was essentially ripping the veil off the women. And that wasn't good either, because conservative, you know, traditional families really rejected that. But he was trying hard to bring Iran into the community of more developed nations. And, you know, there was just. It was just strange to think that.

[Jamie Rubin]

And when did your family leave the whole country?

[Christiane Amanpour]

So my family stayed even after Khomeini came back, which was February 1st, 1979. Two weeks earlier, I believe it was January 16th. And I'm remembering this off the top of my head. The Shah left Iran. He had basically told the people that I'm going to go on a vacation. And, you know, nobody knew whether he was going to come back or not. I guess people who understood politics knew that he was never going to come back again. I didn't know a thing. I was completely apolitical, ignorant, didn't understand, just knew that my dad and our life and way of life was going to be completely upside down. But my father had told me before the Shah left with his family that I needed to get out because I was trying to get to university. And who knew what would happen if I was stuck? Who knew what would happen in any period of. Could there be unrest? Could there be upheaval? Could they close the borders? Anyway, I had left. Then the Shah, you know, took off. And then two weeks later, Khomeini came back. And then a few days after that, they declared the Islamic revolution. And my parents stayed. Everything changed. My mother then, you know, an English Catholic, had to wear the headscarf and a long, you know, coat thing when she left. Not the chador, but when she left the house. My two little sisters who were still there going to school, suddenly had to go to school in the whole hijab thing. And they tell me, and they were little, you know, they were, I don't know, 8 and 10 or whatever it was. And they tell me that at their school, which was the Persian, French, lisay, they not only had to wear the headscarf, but great wads of pages of textbooks were ripped out. And suddenly you had to learn, you know, the Islamic prayer and all the rest of it, you know, education for sure. But they were completely befuddled. But anyway, that's how it was. My mom tells me that once, when she didn't cover herself well enough, and she was in the bazaar where we used to go and shop fruit, vegetables, you know, textiles and all the rest of it in Tajrish, which was one of the targets of the Israeli bombing, not the bazaar, but a site up there, she was spat on, and she said, oh, my God, I've been in this country 23 years. I've had nothing but great relations with everybody. And, you know, my mom, Jamie, I mean, she was, you know, you don't spit on my mom. She was just so nice. To everybody. And she was so shocked. And anyway, eventually they left practically by accident because summer holidays, they all went to England. And then as they were going to go back September 1980, to put my, you know, sisters back in school, Saddam Hussein invaded Iran and all the borders were closed, so they never went back. But what was it like, you know, for you? I mean, you would have been around, I don't know, 1819, when the Revolution happened. What did you think is American?

[Jamie Rubin]

All I remember was the hostage crisis. Prior to that, I barely remember Iran. Except you'd occasionally see this sophisticated people who were called Iranians, and they'd talk about caviar and there'd be great big parties in New York for rich Iranians. That's why we had a revolution, probably. And then the hostage crisis came, and that was a galvanizing event for Americans. And, you know, I remember being watching every day Ted Coppell on Nightline reel off the number of days of The American hostages. 444 days. And it destroyed the Carter presidency. And I remember one of my friends grew a beard and said he wasn't going to shave until the hostages were released. But anyway, that was such a big issue, which is why when we reported this before. But I think it's worth repeating, when you had a chance to interview Mohammed Hatami many Years later in 1997, I thought it was really important.

[Christiane Amanpour]

January 98, let's be right.

[Jamie Rubin]

But we.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yeah, he was elected in 97.

[Jamie Rubin]

You're right. Right. But we were together discussing the proposal to interview him at our honeymoon. Sorry. When we got engaged in 1997, over the holiday. And we're just trying to be precise here.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Who cares? Come on.

[Jamie Rubin]

Okay, then. So we thought it was important. I thought it was important you agreed to get right at this hostage question because that was the thing that all really Americans knew about this regime. Death to America. Death to isra. But the hostages. And that was something really dramatic that all Americans cared about. And frankly, it was a great thing. You got him to express some regret for it. It didn't achieve our objectives in terms of changing the policies of both parties, but it was a great question.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I'm just remembering also the new year of 78 into 79. Essentially, the revolution was coming to a boil there, coming to a head at the end of 1978. And my parents decided to get us all out of Tehran for a bit of respite in Dubai, which I have to tell you, is really a beautiful fishing village then it was not what it is.

[Jamie Rubin]

It's not what it is. No big airport.

[Christiane Amanpour]

No, no, no, no. Anyway, we flew from Tehran down to the airport at Bandarabas, which is on the. The Persian Gulf coast. But by the time we got there, the airlines were on strike. There was a big general strike called by Khomeini as part of the pressure against the Shah's regime. And it. Anyway, we didn't know what to do. Probably we should have got a dhow and sailed across, but that's. My father didn't do that. I wouldn't have known what to do. So he turned us all around. But there was no plane to go back to Tehran, so we had to get in a bus across the desert and then in a train. And honestly, we're not talking about, you know, the kind of trains that we know in Europe or in the United States. It was tough going sick and it went through the desert and there were barely any tracks. I mean, there were tracks underneath. At one point we ran over a camel and that held us up. And my two sisters had a fever. And where was my dad? My dad, the fierce monarchist, was in the engine room trying to convince the workers who were revolutionaries, why it would.

[Jamie Rubin]

Be a problem for them, which is.

[Christiane Amanpour]

My mother was terrified. She said, come back, come back. Don't keep doing this. Shut up. You know it's dangerous. And he just kept on to trying to persuade them.

[Jamie Rubin]

Your father was a great man. I remember him well. He lived to over 100. But one of the things that I remember from our marriage is that because of your prominence as an Iranian living now, a British citizen, a British subject, Iranians from all stripes, from the current regimes to the position to them, to the monarchists, to the secularists, to the anti monarchists who wanted a democratic government, all of the different stripes would talk to you and we'd meet them. And I think through you, I met the queen of the former queen, Empress Farah, as she was the son. I think we met the son, the young.

[Christiane Amanpour]

No, you didn't.

[Jamie Rubin]

I think we did anyway. I think we did anyway. We met all the different stripes. And the reason I raised this is because one of the things I learned from that is, you know, the prominence of Iranians all over the world. They're architects, they're sophisticated people. Iranian Americans that live in Tarangalis, and they all want change, but none of them seem to accept that how hard it's going to be that every time there's an attempt to change the regime. When people stood up to protest during the hatami period in 1998, as you put it, and during the Green Revolution some years later, and then during the most recent time of Women life freedom in 2022, the people stand up and they're very brave and they risk everything. But then the regime has enough people to attack them, to confront them, to jail them or to slaughter them. And until that basic equation changes, until there are less numbers of Iranian security services willing to shoot their own people and Iranians willing to risk their freedom or their lives, I fear that this regime is going to stay in place no matter how much it gets weaker by recent events.

[Christiane Amanpour]

You know, it was the Iranian revolution that awakened my political brain, my, you know, my awareness. And I decided to go, you know, leave the country, go to the United States, study journalism, become a journalist. And I did all that. And I got my first proper job, permanent job was at CNN as a desk assistant in 1983. And remember back in those days before the revolution, Iran and Israel were allies. Iran was America's basic bulwark in the Middle East. It was essentially America's Cold War bestie. You know, it was viewed as very important to America's geopolitics in the world. And remember when the Arab nations put an oil embargo on because of America's help for Israel in the 1973 war, Iran came into its own by not turning off the oil taps. Of course, it raised dramatically the price of its oil, got a lot of money than it had before. But it, you know, it was allied with Israel at that time. How times have changed now.

[Jamie Rubin]

But hold on, just on that point, this is why strategists have said there's no fundamental reason why Iran and the United States shouldn't have similar interests, that if it weren't for the politics of their regimes and the US still not getting over the hostage crisis or wanting to respond to the use of Hezbollah and Hamas or the nuclear issue, or the Iranian regime calling, organizing itself around being opposed to the United States. If we could get rid of those political factors. Maybe you can't, but if you could, Iran as a country and the United States as a country, there's no reason why we shouldn't be friends and allies.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Next we're going to go nuclear, so to speak. Jamie is going to regale you all with the nerdy but now vital issue of nuclear non proliferation. It is actually fascinating. And there's one rule, as we know for some and another rule for others, and we're going to discuss why. And just saying it was in fact an American program under President Eisenhower that helped launch Iran's initial nuclear ambitions and program. Back then that story next.

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[Christiane Amanpour]

Hi, we're back. We're going to talk about going nuclear. We're going to talk about non proliferation treaties and the like. And, and is it all fit for purpose? And particularly in wake of the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, we actually do want to play a little piece of Pete Hegseth and his first press conference in which he got very, very, very personal and vitriolic and angry with the press over their depiction of the mop, so to speak, the MOP bombs and their mission. Here's what he said.

[D]

And I mean specifically you, the press, specifically you, the press corps. Because you cheer against Trump so hard it's like in your DNA and in your blood to cheer against Trump because you want him not to be successful so bad. You have to cheer against the efficacy of these strikes. You have to hope. Maybe they weren't effective. Maybe the way the Trump administration has represented him isn't true.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I have to say viscerally it hit me in the solar plexus and he got very personal to specifics. I might have had to get up and walk out if I was there when he called various people out. If I was them, I might have left. But the point is, Jamie, and this is, you know, you're gonna, you know, widen this, this, this explanation is that he did give a very, very good presser, or at least the chairman of the Joint Chiefs did. On the mission of the B2 bombers, the actual mission, and it was really interesting and they were really successful in the fact that out dropped their bombs. Several of them encountered no resistance. And this had been planned for years and years and years. But he didn't give us full battle damage assessment of what exactly has been accomplished. And we still await that. But Jamie, use this to tell us more about the whole issue.

[Jamie Rubin]

See this is thank you. This is a classic you're welcome and thank you and please, in case I.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Forgot, you never used to say that. No, it's please and thank you.

[Jamie Rubin]

Please and thank you.

[Christiane Amanpour]

We always used to forget please and you thank thank you.

[Jamie Rubin]

That's why I'm adding a few extra pleases and thank yous. He was doing two things interestingly there. One I would say he was projecting. Projecting is this famous psychological phenomenon where he was thinking the reporters would behave the way he behaves when the democrats are in power, hoping the democrats will fail. Always describing every single thing Biden did as a failure. The truth is people like me, as you know from this program, I wanted these raids to succeed and I was pleased that they were able to reduce the amount of enriched uranium Iran could have. But the larger point was the use of force as a method of non proliferation. Does it work? And I think this was the hardest case ever, Iran. So let's go back and think about non proliferation. This is a treaty that was the non proliferation treaty put in Place in 1968. It was during the height of the Cold War and the US and the Soviet Union had begun to talk about their nuclear arsenals. And people were afraid that there would be a proliferation proliferation of countries, 20, 30, 40 countries with nuclear weapons. And that's why this treaty was put in place. And remember, at the heart of the treaty was this bargain that the nuclear powers, Russia, that is the Soviet Union, the United States, Britain, France and China would reduce their arsenals, would pursue disarmament. That's in the non proliferation Treaty in exchange for all these other countries giving up the right to ever have nuclear weapons weapons. That was called the basic bargain of the npt. And what we've learned is that it's very, very been very, very successful in a funny way because back then, what is that 60 years ago the people thought there were going to be a lot more nuclear weapon states by now than there are. There are three countries that we can talk about, India, Pakistan and North Korea that have gone nuclear outside of the non proliferation Treaty. But those that part of it, Israel as well.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Obviously you say Obviously, but they don't declare it. Nobody declares it. It's there, but it's obvious. But nobody declares it.

[Jamie Rubin]

That's right. And we'll get to that in the next segment. But for this segment, we're getting to.

[Christiane Amanpour]

That now in this segment.

[Jamie Rubin]

Well, okay, well, let me try to address it. So there are countries that joined the npt.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Well, maybe we'll do it in the next segment. No, carry on, carry on.

[Jamie Rubin]

Honestly. All right, so the Non Proliferation Treaty had this bargain where you would get help from the nuclear powers in nuclear. And thus the Atoms for Peace program that Eisenhower put in place that allowed Iran to develop the original technology and expertise to develop nuclear energy. That was something that nuclear states were going to provide in exchange for limitations, controls and arrangements. So to make sure that that civilian nuclear energy wasn't transitioned into nuclear weapons program.

[Christiane Amanpour]

And just to stop for one moment, moment. Because you're talking about the Iran one. And that's fascinating because. Yeah, yep, the US Helped with that and their pictures of the Shah with President Eisenhower, the Shah with then President of France, Valerie, in various nuclear sites and things like that. And that was, you know, before the Islamic revolution. So they had a different view of who they were dealing with, obviously the United States.

[Jamie Rubin]

But going on to the broader question. So the Non Proliferation Treaty was successful. People thought Brazil and Argentina would go nuclear. Remember, South Africa probably did go nuclear and then gave up their weapons. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons. South Korea under pressure from the United States and Britain. And that turned out to be a terrible mistake for them. But in any event, this system was working. Now there were these exceptions and these problem countries. North Korea was one of them. Them. And I think we should talk about that because I think North Korea holds for us an extremely important lesson on dealing with Iran. Because North Korea, when I started in the government in 1993, was the first meeting I went to. I was joining a session by the U.S. negotiator, Robert Gallucci. Gary Seymour, who's a prominent expert, was part of that team. And they were negotiating with North Korea and getting North Korea to agree to controls on their plutonium system so that they wouldn't go nuclear. And it worked. The 1994 accord worked, but it was hated by the Republicans, what I would call the maximalists, the people who thought you could get the other party to just capitulate. So they opposed the agreement. And when George Bush became president, you know, eight, nine years later, they ended up behaving so dumb diplomatically that North Korea pulled out of the accord, who played so dumb. I think the US adopted a maximalist strategy forcing North Korea to capitulate or admit when they were lying or admit when they were cheating. Remember, the goal was to prevent them from going nuclear, not to get them to admit how awful they were. We knew how awful they were. They were run by the Kim Il Sung family. These were terrible dictators. And so the Cheney and the Bush Republicans wanted to North Koreans they thought were on the verge of collapse. And they thought if they just pressured North Korea the regime would fall and then we could solve the problem that way. And they were wrong. And by using a maximalist strategy, I believe they made a terrible mistake and ended up causing the North Koreans to pull out of the non Proliferation Treaty which they had joined to pull out of the agreement called the 1994 Agreed Framework, in which all of their plutonium was in a controlled environment and ended up testing nuclear weapons. And now they are a full fledged nuclear weapons state and that has brought them security. Nobody wants to attack them. That's what we keep. We can't do with Iran if we approach it smartly. But it's what I fear we will do if Netanyahu and Trump continue to adopt a maximalist strategy. Remember, the goal is to prevent them from going nuclear or to contain the program, not to win political points and show how smart you are.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Hold on one second because I'm having flashbacks in 1994 when your administration, the Clinton administration that you work for, did the Agreed Framework. Ted Turner and CNN went to North Korea. And I, I wonder whether Jimmy Carter was there at that time too.

[Jamie Rubin]

He was a crucial player in all that.

[Christiane Amanpour]

A crucial player. And, and, and it was really extraordinary. They met Kim Il Song. I mean nobody meets Kim Il Song. You know, it was just an extraordinary moment. And then flash forward in the, you know, when you're talking about George W. Bush after they pulled out of the NPT etc and went so underground and started to build their enriched, I guess whatever they had plutonium rods, it wasn't uranium.

[Jamie Rubin]

At least they went the plutonium method. They were threatening. We found a secret uranium method and that's what became the casus belli for them to pull out. But anyway, go ahead.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yeah, but here's the thing. Even George Bush, the maximalist and his, Cheney's and Rumsfeld's and I don't know what else, who are doubly maximalist. There was a moment in 2008 when they wanted to reopen this attempt to talk to North Korea about the nuclear program and there was a Phenomenal cultural exchange program the likes of which we've never seen before or since. The New York Symphony Orchestra was going to Pyongyang under the, you know, direction with them, right? Yes, Conductor Lauren Meisel and the New York Symphony Orchestra. And they allowed several journalists, I can't remember how many, but there were several news organizations. CNN was one of them. And we, and we had incredible access. Obviously not anywhere, any place access, but we talked to people. We. Eventually they allowed us, just three of us, cnn, AP and abc. We were taken into Pyongyang. The, the, the Yongbyon. Is that. Am I saying it right?

[Jamie Rubin]

Yong. Beyond. Reactor.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yes, reactor. And so we saw them. It gives me chills, actually, because, you know, I've been in quite a lot of rogue regime reactors, including in, in. In some of the ones in Iran. But, you know, we saw them dismantle, you know, the crucial bits inside. We saw them try to, you know, move, move their plutonium rods and I guess store them out of where they could be dangerous. They were in a big pool and we all looked over them. We all dressed up in this, you know, nuclear safety outfits of, of white.

[Jamie Rubin]

You looked great in a nuclear safety suit.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yeah, nuclear safety suits. And we thought, wow, this is happening. This is incredible. And it was actually happening. And we were invited back some three months later, if I recall, the same group, abc, CNN and ap, and we were sat on a little hill outside Yongbyon, and the very cooling tower, the symbol of that, of any nuclear reactor which we'd filmed intact three months before, was being blown up to show that they were heading in that direction. But I just want to say, because I know you'll give me the, you'll give me the, you know, the real story afterwards. But American engineers and North Korean engineers who were all there, they were almost in tears because those are the people who were. It was their life's work and they had created something incredible. But then the threat was meant to be reduced. But what really.

[Jamie Rubin]

So here's what, what was really going on is they were doing the right thing. All the people you met, they were working on nuclear disarmament. They were preventing North Korea from going nuclear. But what was happening really was that North Korea was developing also an. In a uranium method to develop nuclear weapons. They were doing that secretly. The plutonium method was the one that was being watched, the one that was being monitored, the one that was being contained. But they were allowing it to be set back. And these destruction of the cooling tower and the react and all that, because they were Also pursuing a uranium method. We found out about that secretly. And then instead of handling that with diplomatic aplomb, the Bush administration and those who hated non proliferation, hated agreements, hated diplomacy. Those who, the maximalists used the uranium enrichment secret program, which was a violation of the 1994 accords. There were big debates about whether it was technically a violation, but it was certainly a violation of the spirit of it. They used that to pressure North Korea and they thought, thought North Korea was folding. They thought the regime was collapsing. And instead of collapsing, the North Koreans used that pressure to pull out of the non proliferation treaty, give up all this disarmament effort that all those people worked on for all those years. And then what did they do? They actually tested a nuclear weapon. And that is where we are today. And that is what we have to make sure doesn't happen with Iran. You have to prevent that by having containment and having inspectors so that you can detect any violations in time, time for a military significant response. There's all these different ways to achieve non proliferation. One is the diplomatic way that I'm talking about. But remember Israel always had a different method. It was called the Israeli method.

[Christiane Amanpour]

We'll talk about that in the next.

[Jamie Rubin]

In the next we will. But it was the military attack. We're talking about Israel's program, but I'm talking about the method of non proliferation. They attacked the Iraqi Osirak reactor and they destroyed the Syrian reactor in 2007. Then they now are trying to destroy the Iranian capability. What I learned from all this, and this was my first job, my first career, is that military action can be a part of the equation, but it cannot solve the problem because you don't know what's going on on the ground unless you have inspectors and you have a diplomatic arrangement that permits those inspectors to go where they want. And if the other side is violating it, they won't let the inspectors go. And that gives you warning. Warning.

[Christiane Amanpour]

We'll talk about that diplomacy because Trump in 1.0 did try to have diplomacy and have a breakthrough with Kim Jong Un, who is, as you know, the leader of North Korea, now the grandson of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea. And it ended up going nowhere. But next we are in fact going to talk about Iran again, as you said, trying to figure out why some countries have them, some don't, and everything in between.

[C]

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[Christiane Amanpour]

Welcome back. This is the final part of this episode and we want to talk about who has weapons, who doesn't, and those in between. Look, I want to say that there are many people who suggest that Donald Trump's madman theory of foreign policy and maybe even domestic policy may end up, up turning out. It may end up setting back Iran's nuclear program and eventually leading to a wider solution in the Middle east that eventually leads to a Palestinian state. I mean, that is in the future, but it might, on the other hand, it might drive any ambition Iran has underground. I remember covering Donald Trump's summits with Kim Jong Un of North Korea back in 1.0. Remember he had called him little rocket man and there was a whole flurry of, of verbal vitriol between them. But then they met and they seemed to be having a great old time. It eventually didn't go anywhere. When Trump got back to Washington, I was told by the then South Korean foreign minister that when I brought up the Hanoi summit, she said, oh my, Christiana, it was a debacle. I went, what? You guys never talked like that? And I said, what do you mean? And she said, well, sadly, when Donald Trump got back to Washington after these summits and after Hanoi, there was no follow up. So Jamie, take it away.

[Jamie Rubin]

So that's exactly the problem here. Donald Trump's presidency, the Trump administration, foreign policy has the attention span of a gnat. And every time something happens, they don't understand that, especially when it comes to the international affairs. These problems occur over time. They get resolved over time. They require real, real attention. They require attention by experts and they require long term diplomacy. It's not something you can fix and slap dash together. And unfortunately the Trump administration is acting like they've solved the nuclear problem and.

[Christiane Amanpour]

When and they're going into talks about.

[Jamie Rubin]

The bigger Middle east, the Gaza and we'll get to that if they ever get there. There's some rumors that they're doing that. But let's start stick with Iran for a second. They haven't solved the problem. They've set back the program to some degree, we don't know how far. But the issue is will they have provoked Iran to stop cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency, stop its membership in the proliferation.

[Christiane Amanpour]

It's impossible to say.

[Jamie Rubin]

They may have provoked Iran to pull out of the non proliferation Treaty and no longer cooperate with the iaea, the International Atomic Energy Agency. And they have shown and if that happens, if that happens, we will be ruing the day of this military operation because a nuclear Iran would be a frightening prospect if they do what North Korea does, go covert and because of a maximalist pressure from Netanyahu and Trump diplomatically and a claim that the Iranians only solution is to capitulate and give up everything, which is what Netanyahu says the Iranians don't regime doesn't seem likely to do that. They will possibly go into a diplomatic arrangement. We can talk about how that might happen, but they're not going to capitulate. And if they go covert and they end up testing a nuclear weapon, we will be very, very, very sorry.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I just want to ask you one thing here because we need a little bit of, a bit of context here. So, so the argument over obliterating the sites to me is almost a sideline to what actually did they destroy and what was Iran able to take out. So a very, very good source who's very familiar with the program essentially said that they believe a sufficient number of centrifuges were removed and or all the 400 kilos of highly enriched uranium to 60% the offending causes Belli kilos of highly enriched uranium were removed before the Israelis even started attacking. And as I, as I say that would go to where you're going. If they decide that they have no other option now to have some kind of deterrent, they might go nuclear. But can we just before we get to Israel because we've talked about how, how the American atoms peace program helped with the knowledge for civilian reactors. We've talked about the relationship between the Shah of Iran and President Eisenhower and how he gave it to other countries as well. But what we didn't say is the Americans started to get worried about the Shah's ambitions, even the shah, and they started to wish they hadn't, you know, shared this technology, because he then started putting up, you know, barriers to the safeguard part of the Atoms for Peace.

[Jamie Rubin]

Exactly. To preventing it from becoming a civilian nuclear energy program, which gives you expertise and knowledge and some of the materials that you need to then further enrich or to reprocess if it's plutonium. And that capability is the hard part of making a nuclear weapons. We used to say it's the goop, it's the stuff that if it's enriched to the right degree or if it's plutonium and it's reprocessed, that's the hard part. To going nuclear, it's not. Not the physics, it's not hard. The technical weaponization is not as hard. It's the having enough enriched uranium or reprocessed plutonium. And once you have some plutonium or some uranium and you have expertise, then you can grow it. And right now, the Iranian government, for example, the parliament, has passed a law saying it's going to stop cooperating with the International Atomic Energy. It's going to stop it, and we'll see if it's resumed. Now, if we're going to get success here, we're going to need somebody to broker arrangements between the Iranians and the United States and Israel, and we're going to need the west to adopt a sensible policy to get what we want. Remember the goal here, keep your eye on the ball. The goal is to contain Iran's program. Make sure you know where it all is and make sure you'll have plenty of warning if they were to break out. The goal is not to humiliate Iran. Iran and to make them capitulate, which is what, unfortunately, too many in the Israeli government think is their goal. It's not the goal. And I fear that the combination of Netanyahu and Trump's short attention span and the fact that this Witkoff fellow is supposed to do everything means that the hard diplomatic work, the hours and efforts that you saw those people go through in North Korea, where they were crying because they'd been working on this for 5, 6, 7, 8 years in order to achieve this result. It takes years of work to get these things done.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yeah. Witkoff, even the Iranians say, was bringing constructive plan for this consortium and this and that. So we'll see where that goes. But as you say, the capitulation thing is so overplayed. Obviously, the Iranians have said we never will surrender. President Trump had called for total surrender. But you know, you know, John Kerry, who negotiated the JCPOA under the Obama administration, told me this week that, you know, Iran's. And he used it three times, a proud, proud, proud people. And as you say, this is not the way to get them to do what you want. And furthermore, they're constantly asking people like me when I interrogate them, well, why don't you talk about Israel? Why don't you ask Israel about its nuclear program? And of course, nobody does, not even journalists. So tell us, Jamie, the Orid page of how they got, you know, Dimona, how they got their nuclear weapons and why was that never under any npt? They're not in the npt.

[Jamie Rubin]

Well, you can't make a country join the npt. Israel didn't join the NPT the way India didn't join the npt. Either way, Pakistan didn't join the npt. Countries like Iran and North Korea, who have alienated themselves from the international community and want to rejoin it so that they get economic benefits, so that they get the benefits of the international markets and globalization and all of those, that good stuff, have to persuade the international community that they are no longer threats. Wait a minute.

[Christiane Amanpour]

It's okay that Israel packages.

[Jamie Rubin]

No, I'm about to. If you let me bring it home, I'll bring it home. But you got to give me another minute.

[Christiane Amanpour]

30 seconds. Sorry.

[Jamie Rubin]

Iran and North Korea are perceived as threats to the world and they use the joining of the NPT and the cooperative measures to, to convince the civilized world that they are no longer a threat. And thus they can gain the benefits of joining the international community. Israel is not perceived that way by Europeans, by Americans, by many countries around the world. In the Arab world, they're of course perceived as the enemy, but in much of the Arab world, not all of it.

[Christiane Amanpour]

They're all being given a pause and.

[Jamie Rubin]

All right, we'll get to that. But remember, India and Pakistan didn't join.

[Christiane Amanpour]

The NPT and they surprised on your administration. Right, Clinton's administration.

[Jamie Rubin]

Exactly. Because the goal is always proliferation. You want to limit the number of countries. So the way you do that is you're always against anybody going nuclear. But sometimes countries decide for their own reasons to not join the Non Proliferation Treaty, like India, like Pakistan. And they are seen to be responsible countries. So they get the benefits of being part of the international community. Israel did the same thing. But what they did at the time when we were worried about, about them becoming nuclear is they deceived the United States. There's a famous story where they finally, under the pressure of John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson and later presidents agreed to inspections of their famous Dimona plant. And they created a phony room, a fake control room so that the inspectors would be fooled into not knowing that below or in the other part of the facility was a reprocessing plant for plutonium, I believe. And so they, that Israelis basically deceived the international community, the United States their best friend. And in the end it was I believe Nixon who sort of decided to let it go because we had other business with Israel and we were engaged in the Cold War and there was a war where Israel was attacked by all its neighbors. Remember at the time Israel went nuclear. And I know it's hard for people to appreciate this given the behavior of Netanyahu. Israel was thought of as the undertaking dog until. Yeah, until it invaded. Right, until it invaded Lebanon in 1982. So all those years, 60s, 70s and 80s, they were the underdog and so they're getting nuclear weapons was not as seen the same way as Iran would.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Be or okay, so they would.

[Jamie Rubin]

David explanation.

[Christiane Amanpour]

They were David then and they are Goliath now.

[Jamie Rubin]

That's right.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Why then should somebody like Iran or I don't know, India pack first? Iran, should there still be this double standard or do you think the aim also is to pull India, Pakistan, Israel?

[Jamie Rubin]

I don't think we, I think we have to acknowledge that there are going to be some countries who don't join the non proliferation Treaty who like India, like Pakistan, like Israel. That's just the way it is. The goal here is to make sure that Israel, remember doesn't acknowledge it has nuclear weapons. It doesn't say it has them, it's not publicly discussed. They, they don't brandish them against the world threatening to attack or annihilate or wipe off the mat at another country. That's part of the problem that Iran has death to.

[Christiane Amanpour]

But it hasn't brandished nuclear weapons chamber yet.

[Jamie Rubin]

Hold on. No, I'm not. My grippage is very good. It has called for death to Israel and it has called for wiping Israel off the map and it has brandished its weapons capabilities by enriching uranium to 60% which has no civilian purpose. So they are trying to threaten for domestic purposes and for negotiating purposes and it ends up blowing up in their face. Let's just hope that we can get Iran into the non Proliferation Treaty for good. It is for good because they're threatening to pull out because of the attacks by Israel. And the United States and get a diplomatic arrangement so that Iran can again one day join the community of nations by resolving. Remember, we don't like to talk about this, but Iran's help for Assad, 500,000 dead Syrians, Iran's help for Hezbollah, Iran's help for Hamas is what makes them a threat to the region and why all the Arab countries were secretly applauding the attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States. Not all of them, but some of them were quietly applauding it because they see Iran as a threat, because Iran has used its power in the region to try to dominate, and it overplayed its hand. And the whole axis of resistance that it created in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq has collapsed in its face. And now they're fighting to maintain their own power inside Iran. And that's a good thing because that axis of resistance was dangerous and was bad for the region in the meantime.

[Christiane Amanpour]

And let's just go back quick. It was apparent, apparently, and you probably know this, but it was the Pakistani nuclear scientist, A. Q. Khan, who gave Iran the first centrifuges and sent it on its on that series.

[Jamie Rubin]

That's right. So Gary Seymour, one of the experts in this, has sort of said, yes, the US Started Iran on its Atoms for Peace program, but it really was a civilian program. And it wasn't.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I went into Busheh.

[Jamie Rubin]

Yeah, right. And it wasn't until A. Q. Khan, the Pakistani scientist, started giving them the capability to enrich uranium to a higher degree that it became a threat.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So now I am worried because one too many people who know the regime, which is, by the way, right now cracking down because it's seeking out what it believes is a whole fifth column of spies for Israel and doesn't want any protesters, as we have discussed before. So it's a heavy crackdown on individuals there, particularly in the Kurdish region and elsewhere. But, you know, one of my sources basically said to me, well, what would you do? Would you go for a bomb now?

[Jamie Rubin]

So this is what I'm worried about, too. I really am worried about it. And this is one of the things of the backfiring, the blowback from these military operations. It was a great operation. People like Democrats like me praise our military, even when it's conducting operations under the Trump administration. I just hope that some of these people in the Trump administration will do us the favor when we are in office of respecting the military and respecting our activities. That's what Pete Hague says was signaling. He can't do that when the Democrats are in charge so he's assuming that the other side is hoping for the United States to fail. I want my country to succeed. I want Trump to turn this military action into a diplomatic success in Iran, primarily through the nuclear arrangement that will get inspectors back. But more broadly, if he would just, just put pressure on Netanyahu to make peace in Gaza, have a Palestinian state path to statehood, we would get Israel's founders to get what they've always wanted, which was recognition and acceptance by all of its neighbors.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I know you're trying to pull yourself.

[Jamie Rubin]

If they would just do that, it would be great for everybody.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I know you're trying to tease them in. And of course, for the Palestinians, it would finally give them their own, own rights back because it has been a disaster for 75 years since the Nakba. It's been an absolute catastrophe and a disaster for them. And they need their rights. And honestly, people write, even I want to say. Anyway, I'm not going to quote, but I just read an article which I know this to be true. If that terrible injustice for the Palestinians is resolved and so that Israel can be secure next to a free and sovereign Palestinian state, it would take away and deny all the troublemakers and all the.

[Jamie Rubin]

Exactly. And there'd be plenty of Nobel Peace Prizes for Trump and his team. And I'd be happy, and unlike Pete Hagg says, I would be happy to attend the Peace Prize ceremony where Donald Trump gets praised. I'd love that. I don't feel like it's going to happen because of this attention span issue that we've discussed.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Maybe he has somebody who will turn up.

[Jamie Rubin]

Maybe an outside player who we may know might play a role.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Oh, yeah. Are you, are you auditioning?

[Jamie Rubin]

No, it wasn't me I was thinking of.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Okay, we'll get into that next time. So everybody, thank you for listening. Make sure you follow the feed so that you never miss an episode and we'll see you on Thursday with our bonus episode where we answer your questions and do keep them coming in because we really like to know what you, you think and what's on your mind. So email [e-mail] or find us on social media @amanpourpod. You can, of course, listen to the X Files with me, Christiane and Jamie on Global Player. Download it from the App Store or go to globalplayer.com Bye.

[Jamie Rubin]

Bye. Bye. This is a Global Player original podcast.

[C]

This July 4th, celebrate freedom from spills, stains and overpriced furniture with Annabe, the only machine washable sofa inside and out where designer quality meets budget friendly pricing. Sofas start at just $699, making it the perfect time to upgrade your space. Annabe's Pet Friendly Stain resistant and interchangeable slipcovers are made with hook high performance fabric that's built for real life. You'll love the cloud like comfort of hypoallergenic high resilience foam that never needs fluffing and a durable steel frame that stands the test of time with modular pieces you can rearrange anytime. It's a sofa that adapts to your Life. Now through July 4th get up to 60% off site [e-mail] Every order comes with a 30 day satisfaction guarantee. If you're not in love, send it back for while a full refund, no return shipping, no restocking fees, every penny back. Declare independence from dirty, outdated furniture. Shop [e-mail] Offers are subject to change and certain restrictions may apply.