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Jamie Rubin
This is a Global Player original podcast.
Cristiana Amanpour
So, Jamie, I think you like soccer. We call it football. But all of England is in an absolute state of euphoria because the Lionesses, the English soccer team, won the Euros last night. So I've got girls on now. This says girls just want to have fundamental rights. You know, I just put the girls on because it's so exciting. It was in penalty time and, you know, what is it, penalty kicks and all the rest? It was super.
Jamie Rubin
Penalty kicks are always the most exciting part of soccer because you can't believe that it all boils down to one poor guy who'll either hit or miss.
Cristiana Amanpour
Actually, this was a girl. Lots of ladies. It was.
Jamie Rubin
I mean, guy is a. Guy is a sort of a. Yes, you're right.
Cristiana Amanpour
Anyway, it's fantastic. And you know, it's important to say that certainly on this side of the Atlantic, the women's football teams are really the winning, the winning ones, you know, they get to the, you know, finals of the World cup.
Jamie Rubin
The opposed to those poor guys who never quite make it.
Cristiana Amanpour
Yeah. And in America, too, the women's soccer is, is huge. So Trump, President Trump has been here in the UK Basically, it is a Scottish golf resort. And he's been hammering out trade deals ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. He's met with Prime Minister Starmer and he's met with the head of the eu, Ursula V. Line. And he basically said, this is going to be a deal that I think Starmer and the UK Are going to like. So we're going to ask in this episode, and maybe people don't like the expression special relationship, but it's been there for decades. So we're going to ask and talk about how special is it? What does it actually mean? Then we're going to talk about the crisis, the starvation crisis that has reached tipping point politically as well in Gaza. And we're going to ask about President Macron and other Europeans having recognized a Palestinian state. Where does that lead? What does it mean? Hello and welcome, everybody to the X Files with me, Cristiana Manpour.
Jamie Rubin
And I'm Jamie Rubin. I worked in the State Department under President Clinton and President Biden, and I've.
Cristiana Amanpour
Been a longtime correspondent in the field, foreign correspondent for cnn. And now I have my own show. So let's get started. Okay, JB first part of our conversation for this episode, how special is the special relationship? So Trump is here. It's not the state visit, which is next month. Well, it's in September, but it is a private visit to his private golf club where he took the opportunity to, you know, trash and bash those, you know, windmills, which are the, you know, sustainable energy windmills. But apart from that, he also did some trade deals with Europe and with Prime Minister Starmer. So how do you reckon?
Jamie Rubin
Well, you know, Donald Trump has made the presidency a very personal matter, and how he feels about people, about countries, about protocol matters to him, and thus, unfortunately for a lot of other countries, matters to the world. In this case, we're all better off because President Trump respects the UK Is very much wants to be respected by the royal family in the UK And Keir Starmer, I think, has done a pretty good job of doing business with Donald Trump, despite the fact they come from politically, I guess one could say opposite poles. And that's why the British government is. Gets more access to Trump, gets a greater ability to pursue their interests. And Donald Trump obviously likes to go to Scotland to his golf course and play golf.
Cristiana Amanpour
Yes. And just a note, really, because some here, they've pointed out that the last time Trump came, which I guess was in. Oh, gosh, when was it he came anyway? Several years ago, and he put the full weight of his presidential campaign into Brexit. And he said, you know, this is a great idea and all of Europe should be doing it. And this time he's a little less effusive about Brexit. And he's even said that the post Brexit situation has been, I think he said, chaotically managed. So people are reading whatever they might read into that. He slapped 15% on Europe. And Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said, well, it could have been even worse. They were threatening 30%. But it's come to this.
Jamie Rubin
Donald Trump, President Trump, the Trump administration has used trade, the American economy, in a geopolitical manner that is, I think, extremely damaging to the United States, to our people, to the world. Because the most important thing in foreign affairs, in world affairs, is to make sure that our allies stay allies and that we get more of them. We face a world with a rising China spending more money on defense than ever before in history. The largest military buildup in history, arguably. We face Vladimir Putin, who's launched an invasion with hundreds of thousands of troops. It's a dangerous world out there, and in a dangerous world, you want allies, unfortunately, because Donald Trump thinks he knows better than anyone else about trade and how it works. He's used trade as a weapon, a weapon to weaponize the American economy. And that has alienated our friends and allies. They don't have much of a choice because they want American support. They will hold their tongues and bite their tongues and try not to say what they really think when they're in public. But I can assure you they are furious. They are furious that the United States is using its economy as a weapon with its allies. That's the point. We should be using economic sanctions and economic policies, geoeconomics vis a vis China, not vis a vis the UK not vis a vis the European Union. We used to have a world in which Europeans, Americans, Japanese, the major countries in the world, agreed, broadly speaking, there should be fair trade. And then they argued about details. I remember back 30 years ago, we used to fight with the Europeans about bananas. That was understandable. That was real. You had differences in particular countries and who would import and who would export, and that's fine. But that's an argument among friends because he's weaponized our economy. He's made our friends less friendly. And I worry that over time, if this isn't turned around someday, that we won't have the friends. When Donald Trump has a crisis, when the United States has a crisis and it turns around, there may not be anyone behind us. That's the real risk. Britain has traditionally been the first friend of the United States.
Cristiana Amanpour
Hence the special relationship.
Jamie Rubin
Hence the special relationship.
Cristiana Amanpour
I mean, it's not as. Do you think? It's an outdated term. Some people don't like it.
Jamie Rubin
Not really. I mean, look, the UK Is unique for several reasons. One, we speak English. Two, the United States was a colony of the United Kingdom. Three, our governments and cultures and businesses are deeply, deeply aligned. The intelligence community, the Defense Department, our economic leaders spent decades learning, meeting, knowing each other in the UK and the United States. That's the real special relationship. People tend to focus on who's president and who's prime minister and do they get along and how do they meet and blah, blah, blah. But the real special relationship is the depth. And that doesn't go away no matter who's president or who's prime minister. And that's why it's special.
Cristiana Amanpour
Back to this European 15% tariff trade deal they've got. Apparently, in exchange, Brussels has had to agree to purchase $750 billion worth of American gas, oil, nuclear fuel, chips, and the lot. But Ursula von der Leyen went to great lengths to say for the duration of this presidency. I mean, she said for the next three and three and a bit years. So I thought that was kind of interesting. Plus, invest an additional 600 billion in the US into military equipment and opening up markets in the direction of various tariff free trades. It's actually, I mean, it's kind of interesting. They say it's the best we could have got. But they want, absolutely, as you said, to maintain America's security umbrella, the stability and predictability for citizens and businesses. They need the transatlantic relationship I to flourish.
Jamie Rubin
Right, Absolutely. And that's why they're biting their tongue and holding back from what they really think and through gritted teeth saying this is the best deal we could get, knowing that as soon as the Trump administration is over, they'll snap back to a more normal, we hope, trade relationship. But look, investment of Europeans in the United States. My guess is they collected some numbers from various businesses and figured out what was going to happen anyway and added it all up on a piece of paper. So Trump could brag, that's what he likes to do, brag about the biggest deal ever, the largest investment ever in the United States, when if you took this deal away, it'd probably be much the same. There's not really much there. Of course they're going to invest in the United States. We have extremely linked economies. The new part is essentially a tax. Donald Trump is taxing the Europeans and in fact taxing our consumers because Europeans, companies may add these prices onto their goods. Americans will pay more. I'm not an economist. I can't add it all up for people. What I can tell you for sure is that it's going to cost Americans more money and we're not going to get the gigantic benefits that the Trump administration always claims for these things. Plus, they haven't even really figured it out. They've just figured out the headlines. They have to do all the details and these things can unravel just on.
Cristiana Amanpour
That, you know, claim credit and how they've done a great job. They are doing that right now. You know, obviously you see it in the US on the news in White.
Jamie Rubin
House, biggest deal ever in the New York Post.
Cristiana Amanpour
Yeah, yeah, that, yes. But even before they're saying even the 10% global tariffs we already, you know, put on since the inauguration, oh my gosh, we've, we've brought in billions of dollars worth more than we had this time last year. Well, yeah, I mean it would be that, but I wonder what, I know we're not economists, but they have brought in more. And so he's able to point to it, but I don't know whether that's long term or what.
Jamie Rubin
Economics is complicated. There are multiple factors. What would have happened without this, how things would have Been different. What happen to the stock market? What happens to the dollar? Remember, the most important single thing beyond our military that makes America a great nation and makes the world a safer place is the fact that the dollar is the primary currency in the world. That's America's great power. We can borrow trillions at low rates and we can make sure that those countries that are the rogue states, the North Koreas, the Irans, the others who try to violate sanctions, can't do it because of a dollar based international economy. We lo more and more we pressure countries economically. The more and more we use our economy as a weapon that someday somehow we may lose this incredible benefit that's worth hundreds of trillions of dollars to the American people. The fact that the dollar is the single currency in the world and it gives us a very, very powerful tool geopolitically that enables us to impose sanctions on rogue regimes, that enables us to prevent China from trying to dominate Asia and the world. These are important things that are aff using our economy in a, in a crass and an unequal way that alienates our friends and our allies and only benefits the Chinese.
Cristiana Amanpour
Some of the Europeans who are commenting on this weekend deal and some of the, I guess the advisors close to von der Leyen have said basically we seem to have gotten a worse deal than the uk so this meeting is happening in the uk. Prime Minister Starmer did go to visit him.
Jamie Rubin
It's a special relationship.
Cristiana Amanpour
Well, there you go.
Jamie Rubin
Gave him 5%.
Cristiana Amanpour
Yeah, yeah, he's got 10.
Jamie Rubin
That's what I mean. 5% less than the Europeans.
Cristiana Amanpour
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Does it make sense?
Jamie Rubin
No, none of this makes sense. It makes only sense in the minds of the President of the United States. But there are some points here that are worth pointing out. The special relationship is usually described as how does Donald Trump get along with Keir Starmer? How does Maggie Thatcher get along with Ronald Reagan? How does Winston Churchill get along with fdr? And then the famous Blair Clinton, which I thought was wonderful. 1999, many European. The Economist magazine declared the height of European civilization because of their collaboration. Then we had Blair Bush and Tony Blair backed George Bush in invading Iraq and the world went south. Imagine if we hadn't invaded Iraq. Imagine the trillions of dollars saved, the thousands of lives saved and the alienation that caused in the Middle east and the chaos caused by that invasion which Tony Blair supported and because of primarily his relationship with George Bush. That's where the special relationship can get us in the soup.
Cristiana Amanpour
We briefly touched on the idea of alliances in the Middle east and this and that the Middle east and this ongoing war against Gaza has now reached a certain tipping point. We've been reporting for months ever since Israel blockaded aid from going in on the mounting starvation, famine conditions, people dying of hunger, they've moved a little bit over the weekend. And we know of course also that President Macron even before has decided to join the other nations, Spain, Norway, Ireland in recognizing a Palestinian state. So where does that politics go? But more importantly, immediately, how does one alleviate the terrible suffering in Gaza? When we come back.
C
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Cristiana Amanpour
Okay, we're back and we're going to turn our gaze, of course, onto Gaza and the terrible humanitarian suffering. I mean it is, you know, what we've been reporting for weeks and weeks on this podcast, what people around the world have been reporting on what I've been doing on my show. And it is come to a head now because there has been so much focus on the people who are dying in Gaza, especially the children, the mothers. Now the doctors are getting weaker and they're unable to, you know, help the people who needs like the weak can't even help the weak. Journalists, the people who we rely on are stringers and, and, and you know, colleagues in Gaza a week, they can't get the food as they, as they should be able to. So Jamie, finally Israel has decided that it will make a couple of tactical pauses to enable some aid. And then this kind of scandal, I have to say of the airdrops, we know what happened last time. I know what airdrops look like. I've seen it in Bosnia and parts of Africa. They don't really work. This is a man made issue that can be solved like that in terms of the aid anyway.
Jamie Rubin
And this is very simple to think about. Prior to March of this year, Israel, because of the Biden administration, insisted over and over again that its assistance to Israel support for Israel was contingent upon allowing the required amount of humanitarian assistance. We counted trucks. Tony Blinken would meet with Bibi Netanyahu and talk about how many trucks got in that day. And if the right number didn't get in, we pressed them and it changed things. And what we've learned is that Trump can do the same thing. And finally recently he got fed up and he said it looks bad that people are starving in Palestine. And then boom. He didn't say Palestine, he obviously said Palestinians. Boom. We can talk about that. The country, Palestine, boom. They open up the truck routes and say they won't bomb in certain times from 8am to 6pm or something like that. That's a solvable problem. The Israelis, too many Israelis in their system are denying the effect of their control of Gaza on people's lives. They can fix this easily under Trump. In March this year, Israel changed its policy and started actually constricting the amount of aid coming in, stopping it. There was a ban on aid going in and they've basically caused the starvation of innocent men, women and children. It's unforgivable. It is destroying Israel's reputation around the world. And it's fixable and it has no impact whatsoever. The Israeli military has now admitted that these claims that Hamas was stealing all the UN aid turns out to have been exaggerated wildly. And so again, we have a situation where Israel has legitimate security needs. The killing of innocent civilians often happens because of Hamas. I'm the first one to say that. But that doesn't excuse using food and medicine and shelter as a weapon. You're not allowed to do that. It's illegal. I don't much believe in international law, but in this case that is important because Israel should. The Israeli people don't want to think that they are causing the starvation, or most of them, of innocent Palestinians. And I think Israel's government can fix this. And we've seen it. Now what happens? Donald Trump puts some pressure on him and suddenly, boom, it's open. Well, why wasn't this done for the last five months?
Cristiana Amanpour
Again, unsure whether it's Donald Trump, but just what you said in terms of the Israeli military, the U.S. military or the U.S. u.S. Government has also basically told the New York Times that they too have not seen any widespread Hamas Theft of aid that came in via the UN system. And of course, Israel stopped the UN system, which was the only one there with multiple hubs all over the country, which understood how to take it, where to take it to the people, how to secure the aid. And in the interim, when the, you know, the unwra, it's called the UN for the Palestinian territories, was banned by Israel, and then, as you know, a private American organization, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, I mean, it's been a disaster. They've basically, people have been killed by direct fire, by stampedes trying to get to these very few areas. It's very, very important because that narrative by Israel is the one that kept food going in, in this latest iteration, Jamie, though I know, because we've discussed this before, genocide is a word that more and more intellectuals, specialty organizations, human rights organizations, not to mention people concerned people, are beginning to say is happening. Well, have been saying is happening in Gaza. And something very unprecedented happened today, Jamie. You know, Betsellam, which is one of the most, you know, amazing human rights organizations in the world, happens to be Israeli, and it has issued a major report. Israel, obviously has reacted furiously and denies it and says that it complies with international law. But this is getting very, very serious, Jamie. It's unavoidable that the weight of this human rights pressure is coming to an unavoidable conclusion now.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah, look, I think, you know, that's why you put it this way, that I find it very unhelpful to get caught up in international legalisms. I don't think it's constructive. I don't think it gets the job done. What's the job? The job is to get the Israelis to change how they deal with the Palestinians. That's the job. They're dealing with them unfairly. They're causing massive suffering. People are dying from food, shelter, medicine, and direct attack. That's a fact. Those are facts. The rest of it is what I call high policy. How do you describe it? What do you call it? These lawyers think this. These lawyers think that. I don't think it's constructive because it causes Israel to go into its kind of, you know, corner and be angrier than it already was and more difficult than it already was in dealing with the un dealing with the European countries. It doesn't help. And, and I think it's different than the Palestinian state question, which we can talk about in a minute. That. That's a different question. Calling what Israel, the country that was founded as a result of genocide, a genocidal government is going to cause a reaction that's not going to help the problem. So I don't find that, that a constructive way to go. I don't know how to describe these facts. You know, it's a legal term. I. I don't find it constructive. What's constructive is to show the Israelis that they are losing steam with their friends, their friends in the United States, their friends in the US Government, their friends in Europe, their friends around the world are losing support for them because of their behavior, and get them to change their behavior. That's what's happening. I do. As a policy advisor, maker, analyst, I think that's more constructive than trying to figure out what the right term is and figuring out how many lawyers think this and how many international scholars think that it causes a reaction from Israel that's worse than they already were, which was monstrous. So what I would do is focus on the numbers, the numbers of dead, the numbers of food, the numbers of medicine, the fund for shelter, and say, you, you tell me, what is this? How many people have died? And you make the Israelis under pressure rather than throwing the word genocide in their face, which causes them to go into a defensive crouch and not be constructive. They're unconstructive as it is. We're making them more unconstructive because, look, these charges come out of stupid things said by people around the Israeli generals and in the Defense Department and the Prime Minister's office, where they say, well, all the Palestinians cheered on October 7th, so we don't care about them anymore. And generalize from the Hamas monsters who did this, who started this, who caused this, and every day we need to remember how this started on October 7th, instead of focusing on them, we focus on dumb Israeli leaders who say dumb things about not caring about the lives of Palestinians, which leads these groups to say, use those quotes and say, look, look, they're generalizing it. They're trying to kill Palestinians in general. Then they get to the word genocide. So I don't think that's the way to go as a policy advice. I think the way to go is to force them to allow the food, medicine and shelter in, and force them to, through pressure, real pressure, to get a ceasefire, get this war over that everyone knows is not contributing to Israel's security anymore. And then maybe, just maybe, do something wonderful, which is always possible in these times, which is get the path to a Palestinian state, Saudi recognition and real security for Israelis, instead of every day being accused of genocide.
Cristiana Amanpour
I just need to read you a little bit of this because it's important. So B'Tselem and his physician for Human Rights, the Israeli chapter, have said that Israel's onslaught on Gaza includes, quote, mass killing both in direct attacks and through creation, creating catastrophic living conditions, large scale destruction of infrastructure, destruction of the social fabric, mass arrests and abuse of detainees, and mass forced displacement, including attempts at ethnic cleansing. And it added that statements made by senior Israeli decision makers, quote, have expressed genocidal intent throughout the conflict. So I know what, what you say, but I'm just reporting what, what here they're saying. Just one, one thing I need to say because it's, it's quite, it's quite, this is where you're going to get really, really furious. Basically, they say they also accuse the international community of enabling genocide. Quote, many state leaders, particularly in Europe and the United States, have not only refrained from effective action to stop the genocide, but enabled it. Through statements affirming Israel's, quote, right to self defense or active support, including the shipment of weapons and ammunition, which continued even after the icj, the International Court of Justice ruled that, quote, there was a plausible risk that Israel's actions amount to genocide acts. That's these groups, betsellim and Physicians for Human Rights. It's very, very, very serious and I don't know what you have to say about it given that you were in the US Government.
Jamie Rubin
I have to say that these people are entitled to their opinions and they are well meaning, intentioned, you know, well intentioned people who look at the world and then write down on a piece of paper what they think about it. But they don't strike me as more important than a lot of other people who don't agree with that. I know their facts are usually correct. It's interpret those facts.
Cristiana Amanpour
One of the issues this past week was President Macron of France, who has apparently been described as being totally now fed up with President Trump with the US Doing nothing to alleviate what we've just been talking about. Can't stand the sight of what's going on. And remember, he has not only the biggest Muslim population in Europe, but the biggest Jewish population in Europe as well. So he joined last year's declaration by Spain, Norway and Ireland to recognize a Palestinian state. And you might know because you're in New York, there's the French Saudi conference around a Palestinian state happening in New York this week. And I interviewed the Palestinian Prime Minister of the pa, the Palestinian Authority just a few days ago, who was really looking forward to that, by the way. He also said America holds the leverage to stop what's going on. I agree with that right now, the human suffering. But he said, you know, we need to move the ball along to get a Palestinian seat. But Trump has dissed it. Right. It's probably unlikely right now that Keir Starmer will agree because he has to thread a needle between Trump and, you know, the suffering. He's also remember a former human rights lawyer, Keir Starmer, and others like Giorgio Meloni, more conservative, the prime Minister of Italy has said, yeah, we're all for a Palestinian state, but we need a ceasefire and all of that.
Jamie Rubin
That I believe that a Palestinian state would be the defeat of the Hamas movement and Bibi Netanyahu made a terrible mistake during this war by denying and misrepresenting the facts, by saying to, to create a Palestinian state would be a victory for Hamas. No, no, no, no. It puts pressure on Hamas to ultimately lose political steam because they don't want a Palestinian state state. They want permanent struggle that leads to one state. And it puts pressure on the Israelis because they hate it. And they know, and everybody knows who's looked at this, that ultimately peace for Israel will require a two state solution. American politicians know that, even the ones that defend Bibi to the end of their days. One of my friends is a congressman. I won't mention his name, but he admits that a two state solution is the only solution. So pushing for a two state solution by recognizing a Palestinian state is a good international pressure device that I can understand and support.
Cristiana Amanpour
What's the likelihood?
Jamie Rubin
Well, it's far less likely than Netanyahu. Far more likely than Netanyahu going to prison as a result of an indictment by the Israelis. Yeah, but with Trump, with Trump, I mean, look, he gets the big deal if he does this. He gets the Saudi deal. The Saudi deal that will lock in his success in the Abraham Accords and create a, probably a Nobel Peace Prize for those who do it. If you create a path to a Palestinian state. And remember the Palestinians I met with on this show, Tony Blinken talked about how he sent me to see the Palestinians. I talked with their leadership. They are prepared to do something they've never done before, which is agree to conditional recognition of their state. So that it requires that the conditions that reasonable Israeli leaders know need to be met. Such as?
Cristiana Amanpour
So who's prepared? The Israelis?
Jamie Rubin
The Palestinian Authority is prepared to agree to the conditions. And Dennis Ross, one of the experts about this, had told me they've never said that before, that they would be able, would be willing to agree to various conditions for their recognition, including, you know, no. Hamas, including recognizing that they can't pay salaries, pay money to those who commit terrorist acts. All the things that would show they are serious about peace, they're prepared to put in a conditional recognition proposal. That's, that's progress. If Trump does want a Nobel Peace Prize, he can get it. That's what this is always about. The extremists help each other. Israeli extremists help Hamas. Hamas extremists help Israeli extremists. A two state solution with a Palestinian state is a defeat for both sides. Extremists, I'm for it. And let the, you know, the Europeans recognize if that's necessary to put pressure. I have no problem with the, that.
Cristiana Amanpour
You, me and 99.9% of the rest of the world are for it. We've talked about how Trump could weigh in, but, you know, in public, when he was asked about the starvation in Gaza, he went on about how much US has contributed to help children there. But he suggested again that aid is being stolen and complained he hasn't received a thank you. Honestly, he says people are stealing the food, they're stealing the money. They're stealing the money for food, they're stealing weapons, they're stealing everything. Think it's a mess. The whole place is a mess. Well, we just spent the beginning of this little segment saying that there's no evidence, not the US has evidence, nor Israel has evidence. So my problem is with the public statements that keep coming out, which fly in the face of their own officials telling them the actual facts, that it hasn't been stolen in a significant form or fashion at all from the UN and we need to get the UN system back rolling ASAP to save these people from dying. It's impossible. I mean, I mean, I would just say that, you know, when you were with the Clinton administration and I was in the field and the Bush administration before Clinton, there was famine in Somalia. Bush sent U.S. forces and they relieved the famine when it was terrible in Bosnia. It was as awful as the, as the air drops and things were. They did a bit of airdrops and they insisted on bringing aid even though it was under siege. So it's possible. It's possible. It's possible. And airdrops in Gaza, they say, won't work because a, it could kill people biologically. Only the strong will get the bits that fall here and there, maybe even into the sea. And even if they were going to do it, apparently it takes, according to the BBC, who mocked up a sort of A diagram with the Metrics. It'd take 160 flights per day to give the necessary food at this point.
Jamie Rubin
The good part is though, when they do airdrops, when they do airdrops, it shows the ridiculousness of it. Yes, everyone knows that that's not the best way to do it. And so once you start doing that, then, then the Israelis will bend on the trucks and the trucks are the.
Cristiana Amanpour
Way to get food in. That's people don't have time and the children who don't have the strength of the adults are dying. And it's just unconscionable for all of us. We're gonna come back in a moment and talk about where are we with Iran after Israel's bombing and the US Bombing? Are they back anywhere near a nuclear negotiation?
C
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Cristiana Amanpour
So here we are, back again as promised. We're just going to give you a quick update on Iran. We've been talking about how Israel and the United States bombed the nuclear facilities, causing a lot of damage. Would it spur Iran back to the negotiating table or to pull out of any safeguards and go underground? So Jamie, now after meeting with Europe, there's been a conversation. The famous E3, France, Germany and the UK who said that they would put sanctions back on Iran over its nuclear program unless they played ball. Now they say they're ready to give that so called snapback process an extension if Iran meets its legal obligations and specific needs under the deal in order to come back into compliance.
Jamie Rubin
Yes, well, look, there's a few points quickly. Number one, everyone's going to be continuing to assess the damage from this bombing and was it complete or was it partial and whether we're better off with the diplomatic solution. Number two, as Tony Blinken told you and me the other day, there is a dramatic solution that the Iranians have talked about prior to the bombing that one hopes one can get back to. They're obviously not willing to do so right now because they don't want to do it after having been bombed. But at least they showed their bottom line and we can get there. And that would be minimal enrichment and verification of any possible use of nuclear weapons on a missile. That would be dramatic, would solve the problem. Number three, snapback, unfortunately is complicated because you have to get a. If you're going to extend it, you got to get a resolution through the Security Council and that means the Russians and Chinese can veto. So it's a very complicated diplomatic reality, but probably they can find a way to fudge it because you usually can in these situations. And the Iranians have to decide. They're not apparently running away from the table, which is very good news and I feel very happy about that because we don't want them to run away from the table. Leave the Non Proliferation Treaty, leave the IAEA system and start building a nuclear weapon as fast as they can. That would be a disaster. So good news is they're still talking and let's see if we can get them back to the table to agree to that offer they made to the Europeans and the United States that Blinken talked about and then we can, you know, really solve this problem for all time.
Cristiana Amanpour
You mentioned Russia because it all plays into the same story. Russia, according to the FT over the weekend, is running out of weapons. Apparently it's depleted its stockpiles of Soviet era stuff since its invasion and it, according to this article, increasingly relying on North Korea. As we've seen the weapons, the parts, the troops and all the rest of it at the same time. You know, President Trump and Prime Minister Starmer had their press conference after their meeting on Monday in Scotland and they have announced, or Trump has announced that he's giving Russia now, I don't know, another 10, 12 days for a ceasefire. So he keeps Jamie all over the place on these deadlines.
Jamie Rubin
I'm gonna make a new deadline of about 10, 10 or 12 days from today. There's no reason in waiting. We just don't see any progress being made.
Cristiana Amanpour
The last one we heard was 50 days and that was not 40 days ago. So I don't know what's going on.
Jamie Rubin
Who knows? Look I wouldn't mind being a fly on the wall when Keir Starmer and Trump are meeting because they are very different people. I mean, I can't imagine two different leaders, styles. I mean, Keir Starmer, a buttoned up, careful lawyer who, you know, carefully moved the Labour Party into the center so he could win an election, and Donald Trump, who is Donald Trump? And we all know these are very, very different people. They have almost nothing in common personally. But because the United States and the UK have this unique relationship, business gets done. And I think it's important that Donald Trump keeps putting pressure on Putin. And if they're really running out of weapons, that would be really good. Unfortunately, I think that report is probably exaggerated. They are relying more on North Korea. And think about that in the modern world. North Korean troops, North Korean weapons being used fighting Ukrainian troops, using German tanks, German missiles, American weapons. Think about what a world war this really is inside the heart of Europe and that's a reason why it needs to stop. And again, the solution will lie in how much pressure Donald Trump will put on the cause of the problem. In this case Putin.
Cristiana Amanpour
The North Koreans helped Russia get Kursk back from Ukraine. So they do have some kind of use. I know that's crazy, but it's true. The FT did a very interesting profile, Jamie, on this guy. As I think most people who look at Ukraine know the name Andre Yermak. He's the very powerful friend, ally and chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And some have even said, you know, he's deputy president and he has a huge amount of autonomy and power. What did you think of him as the interlocutor?
Jamie Rubin
I think that we've seen what happens when Vladimir Zelensky gets bad advice.
Cristiana Amanpour
Volodymyr.
Jamie Rubin
Thank you. Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv gets bad advice. And he got some bad advice. Passing legislation to scale back the anti corruption tools that are being used in Europe, in Ukraine that give Europeans confidence that their aid will be properly distributed and not diverted. Andrei Yermak is behind that kind of bad advice. My experience was all of the decisions of Zelenskyy that we were troubled by and it often happened, we ended up pending. Back to Yermak. I think it's a sad thing when someone comes out of nowhere like Zelenskyy did as a comedian who had a very close friend and producer who helped him climb to the top of the international ladder is very hard to give up your friends. But sometimes the greater good requires you to I think the Europeans and the American, certainly the Democrats in Congress that I know and the people that I've been close to that care about Ukraine would have a lot more confidence in helping Ukraine if they didn't think you're my wielded the power that he now wields. The only way to stop that is probably for him to let him go or push him aside. It's just one of those realities in life in politics where someone gets too big for their britches, so to speak. And Zelenskyy relies on him, unfortunately. And someone needs to have a heart to heart with him because most of the corruption and political problems that we observed during the Biden administration's two and a half years during the war were, were pointed back, found to be related to the decisions, actions, recommendations of Yermak. So that's my view. I don't know him that well. I don't, you know, haven't had dinner with him, but I've been in meetings with him. And I just know that from a substantive standpoint, the country of Ukraine and the world would be better off if he weren't wielding this much power. And someday Zelenskyy will realize that. I hope.
Cristiana Amanpour
Apparently he was the one who pushed for the fateful meeting in the White House between Zelenskyy and Trump.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah, it all worked out. He's one of those people who's so confident and then it blows up in his face and then he blames someone else.
Cristiana Amanpour
Yeah. So I was speaking to a really knowledgeable person, the former deputy NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Rupert Smith, who was also the last great general on Profor General in Bosnia before the Dayton Peace Accords.
Jamie Rubin
We went to his retirement ceremony together.
Cristiana Amanpour
Yes, an amazing guy. And he's still following things very closely in the Balkans and in Ukraine, particularly on the corruption issue. And he was saying, saying, yes, you know, for years, especially now, the Russians have been interfering and making Ukrainians doubt their own government on Ukraine. But there's also actually stuff that is corrupt and some of the safeguards weirdly have been taken away. He said, for instance, USAID cuts and US and the cut of US aid and, you know, very, very tight influence has lifted the pressure from the US on the corruption issue, which was something the US Was very.
Jamie Rubin
The Europeans have to do it.
Cristiana Amanpour
Well, the Europeans, you know, have reacted now by suspending a big tranche of money.
Jamie Rubin
And they had an impact. And the Zelensky pulled the legislation he.
Cristiana Amanpour
Has, and they said, you know, the Europeans were, you know, probably a little too willing to Let things slide. They was their ally leader in war. And he said also, you know, it's slightly understandable that a wartime leader wants to consolidate power, but that's different from, you know, an autocratic centralization of power. So he was saying also that please. Well, I'm now interpreting. Hopefully this won't damage Ukraine's ties to the EU and its desire to at least accede to the EU eventually, if never to NATO.
Jamie Rubin
It won't be with Yermak as chief of staff, I can assure you that.
Cristiana Amanpour
Well, because it needs it and Europe needs it. This is a major issue, you know, we'll see. I mean, to get to the eu, Europe needs a buffer and Ukraine needs.
Jamie Rubin
Yeah, I mean, you're exactly right. The end point to this war. Since people often ask me, when's the war going to end? How's it going to end? Is going to involve Ukraine as part of the eu, some arrangement between Ukraine and NATO countries to provide a backstop, a security blanket, a security assurance that Russia can't reinvade without terrible consequences for Russia and some frozen territory that will be in Russia's hands but never accepted by the international community. That's the three point plan that will end this war and anything that interferes with that, like recommended policies of Yermak that backfire against Ukraine will harm Ukraine, the people of Ukraine. How can these patriots who've seen their people go through this terrible suffering, put themselves over their people? I just never understand it. Why can't people in power see that their presence harms their nation? And I believe that people.
Cristiana Amanpour
That's a question for all time.
Jamie Rubin
It sure is.
Cristiana Amanpour
For everyone. Okay, well, that wraps it up for this week. A lot has been going on and thank you as always for listening. Make sure you follow the feed as well so you don't miss an episode. And of course, we'll see you again on Thursday. For our bonus episode, Questions from you, which we try to answer and we really like them. So keep them coming. Coming. Email us@amanpourpodlobal.com or find us on social media, which is @amanpourpod. And remember, you can always listen to this podcast on Global Player. Download it from the App Store or go to globalplayer.com Bye, Jamie.
Jamie Rubin
Bye. Bye. This is a Global Player original podcast.
C
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Summary of "Why is Gaza Still Starving?" - Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files
Release Date: July 29, 2025
In the episode titled "Why is Gaza Still Starving?" of Christiane Amanpour Presents: The Ex Files, esteemed journalist Christiane Amanpour and her former husband, Jamie Rubin—a seasoned former U.S. State Department official—delve deep into the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The conversation spans a range of geopolitical issues, including the strained U.S.-UK relationship under President Trump, the escalating hunger and suffering in Gaza, and the broader implications for Middle Eastern stability and international diplomacy.
Discussion Points:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Rubin argues that the foundational elements of the U.S.-UK relationship—shared language, historical ties, and aligned governmental and business practices—remain robust despite political fluctuations. However, he criticizes Trump's approach to trade, suggesting that weaponizing economic policies risks alienating traditional allies and undermining long-term strategic partnerships.
Discussion Points:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Rubin emphasizes the need for constructive pressure on Israel to alleviate Gaza’s suffering, advocating for the restoration of truck-based aid delivery systems. He argues against the use of legalistic language, suggesting that concrete actions and international pressure are more effective than labeling actions as genocide, which may provoke defensive reactions from Israeli authorities. Amanpour underscores the dire humanitarian consequences and the urgent need for international intervention to prevent further loss of life.
Discussion Points:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: The hosts converge on the necessity of a two-state solution to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, viewing it as a strategic move to diminish extremist influence and foster regional stability. Rubin highlights the importance of international consensus and conditional recognition to ensure that such a solution is viable and sustainable.
Discussion Points:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Rubin advocates for resilience in diplomatic efforts, emphasizing the need to keep Iran engaged in negotiations through the extension of sanctions and international pressure. He underscores the fragility of the situation, noting that failure to secure compliance could lead to nuclear proliferation and heightened regional tensions.
Discussion Points:
Notable Quotes:
Analysis: Rubin criticizes the internal leadership of Ukraine, particularly the influence of Yermak, suggesting that effective governance is crucial for Ukraine’s success and international support. He links internal corruption to broader geopolitical outcomes, warning that without significant reforms, Ukraine’s chances of EU and NATO membership may be compromised, further destabilizing the region.
Final Reflections: Christiane Amanpour and Jamie Rubin conclude the episode by reiterating the interconnectedness of global crises, emphasizing that solutions require both local and international efforts. They underscore the importance of strategic diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and steadfast alliances in navigating the complexities of today’s geopolitical landscape.
Notable Closing Quote:
Overall Analysis: This episode of The Ex Files presents a comprehensive exploration of the Gaza humanitarian crisis within the broader context of international relations and regional stability. Amanpour and Rubin offer insightful analyses, blending on-the-ground reporting with high-level diplomatic critique. Their discussion underscores the urgent need for effective humanitarian intervention in Gaza, strategic diplomacy between global powers, and the resolution of internal conflicts within Ukraine to ensure long-term peace and stability in the Middle East and beyond.