James Kostohyrz argues there’s a real chance that Israel and Iran are going to war. Like bombs and missiles. Real war. If so, what’s Iran’s first move? Shut down the Strait of Hormuz and immediately block 20% of the world’s oil production. Oh crap. What would that mean for oil prices? It’s a scary yet possible scenario we are facing. Horrifying with huge ramifications for oil prices. James argues it’s not priced into today’s crude prices.

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00:00 - Intro
01:52 - How Anas Makes Money
03:09 - Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices
07:10 - Impact of Middle East War on Oil Prices
11:29 - Iran's Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
17:59 - Iran's Economy and Potential Regime Change
27:46 - Public Executions in Iran
28:40 - Israel's Regime Change Policy
29:40 - Likelihood of Regime Change in Iran
32:53 - US Shale Revolution Insights
34:00 - Overconfidence in US Shale Production
36:20 - Asymmetric Risk/Reward in Energy Sector
40:00 - Market Strategies for Investors
43:53 - Israeli Perspectives on Regional Issues
51:54 - Trump Administration's Potential Actions
58:05 - Scenarios for War Outcomes
1:00:50 - Potential Peace Deal Scenarios
1:02:44 - Iran's Nuclear Program and Israeli Strategy
1:05:50 - Trump’s Iran Policy and Diplomacy Prospects
1:10:05 - Israel's Threat from Iran's Proxies
1:11:02 - Ukraine's Role in the Conflict
1:19:10 - Market Apathy Towards Geopolitical Risks
1:20:17 - Contact Information for Teddy
1:21:10 - Recent Changes in Israel
1:23:06 - October 7, 2022 Events

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Crude Tensions: the Missing Israel - Iran Risk Premium