Circo Massimo – Lo spettacolo della politica

Episode: La pace eterna di Donald e di Bibi appesa al filo di Hamas

Host: Massimo Giannini
Date: September 30, 2025

Overview of the Episode

In this episode, Massimo Giannini offers an incisive analysis of the proposed peace plan for the Middle East brokered by Donald Trump and Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. He reflects on decades of failed peace attempts, the complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the critical role of Hamas in the fragile truce. Giannini scrutinizes the rhetoric and actual substance behind the so-called “eternal peace,” exploring the geopolitical, political, and moral implications of the current proposal.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. History of Failed Peace Initiatives

• Giannini opens by revisiting pivotal peace attempts such as Camp David (1978) and Oslo (1993), highlighting the recurring pattern of hope and disappointment in the region.
  • Quote: “Quante volte ci siamo andati vicini alla pace in Medio Oriente?” (00:02)

2. Trump and Netanyahu’s “Eternal Peace” Plan

• Trump and Netanyahu announce a sweeping peace initiative with “20 key points” aiming to resolve the Gaza conflict.

  • Trump’s Rhetoric: Giannini notes Trump's tendency for grandiloquence, calling it a “giornata storica” (“historic day”) and mentioning the involvement of Arab leaders, seemingly as a ploy for the Nobel Peace Prize. (02:28)
  • Irony in ‘Peace Eterna’: Giannini criticizes the phrase “pace eterna,” pointing out in Italian culture this equates to “death,” not harmony. (03:10)

• Main Proposals in the Plan:

  • Immediate release of all hostages by Hamas within 72 hours.
  • Total demilitarization of Gaza.
  • Voluntary right to stay or leave Gaza for civilians.
  • Destruction of Hamas’s terror infrastructure, with conditional amnesty for militants who surrender.
  • Establishment of a transitional government with major roles for Palestinians, possibly with Trump and Tony Blair providing technical leadership.
  • Transfer of governing authority to the Palestinian National Authority post-transition.
  • Key Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan) to aid in dismantling terrorist networks.

3. Political Realities and Internal Obstacles

• On the Israeli Side:

  • Ultra-Right Opposition: Major Israeli far-right figures (Smotrich, Ben-Gvir) are likely to oppose returning Gaza to Palestinian control and any retreat from West Bank settlements.
  • Netanyahu’s Survival: Suggests a behind-the-scenes deal for Netanyahu, who faces criminal charges, ensuring his protection in any future political arrangement. (16:10)
  • Quote: “Cosa ne pensano di questa ipotesi di pace perpetua vari Smotrich e Ben-Gvir...?” (17:00)

• On the Palestinian Side:

  • Legitimacy of Hamas: Hamas cannot be a legitimate negotiator after the October 7 mass killing, but their compliance is essential for the plan's success.
  • Hamas’s Incentives: Pointedly notes the lack of incentives for Hamas beyond amnesty for surrender—potential deal-breaker for their leadership.
  • Quote: “I tagliagole di Hamas non possono rappresentare una forma di interlocuzione per il futuro di Gaza…” (22:50)

4. Risks and Geopolitical Dynamics

• Arab Countries’ Involvement: Doubt is cast on whether Arab nations will accept a leading operational role, particularly with Western figures like Tony Blair involved, whom many in the Arab world distrust.

• Hamas’s Likely Reactions: The probability of new waves of terror if the plan is perceived as an expanded version of the Abraham Accords, which Hamas viscerally opposes.

  • Quote: “Questa sarebbe una pace degli ultra ricchi. Per questo l’unica cosa che dobbiamo temere è un’altra reazione disperata ma ancora più efferata dei terroristi di Hamas.” (31:25)

• Historical Parallels: Giannini cites David Grossman’s verdict on the Abraham Accords as “la pace dei ricchi” (peace of the wealthy), warning this attempt is “la pace degli ultra ricchi.” (30:35)

5. Pessimism and Warnings

• Unlikelihood of Swift Peace: Giannini tempers expectations, recalling Trump’s tendency for grand gestures without follow-through and the intractable nature of the conflict.
• The Real Danger: Warns of escalated violence by Hamas as a reaction to feeling marginalized by deals made without their integration.
• Quote: “I problemi ormai plurisecolari di quel lembo di terra, difficilmente si risolvono con la bacchetta magica.” (29:45)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the meaning of ‘eternal peace’:

  • “Sappiamo bene, per la nostra cultura, che cos'è la pace eterna. È la morte, non è l'assenza di conflitti duraturi e la concordia tra i popoli.” — Massimo Giannini (03:10)

• Trump’s motivation:

  • “Sembra quasi che stia snocciolando l'elenco di quelli che dovranno votarlo per il premio Nobel della pace.” — Massimo Giannini (04:10)

• On the complexity of peace:

  • “Al di là della ridondante retorica e della ridicola enfasi... ci sono almeno 20 punti riassunti nella proposta di pace americana, alcuni dei quali oggettivamente molto interessanti…” (05:10)

• On Israeli politics:

  • “Dovrebbero ritirarsi anche da lì gli israeliani? È evidente che questo accordo, laddove avesse gambe per camminare, potrebbe mettere a rischio la tenuta del governo Netanyahu…” (17:30)

• On the threat of further violence:

  • “Questa sarebbe una pace degli ultra ricchi. Per questo l'unica cosa che dobbiamo temere è un'altra reazione disperata ma ancora più efferata dei terroristi di Hamas.” (31:25)

Critical Timestamps

• 00:02–04:10 — Historical context: failures of Camp David and Oslo, and skepticism toward new peace talks.
• 05:10–12:00 — Breakdown of “20-point” peace plan; U.S. and Israeli perspectives; criticisms of the rhetoric.
• 16:00–19:00 — Internal Israeli political tensions and Netanyahu's precarious position.
• 22:50–29:45 — The challenge of involving Hamas and the Arab states; anxieties about excluding key players.
• 30:35–31:25 — Comparison to Abraham Accords; Disquiet about rich-country peace frameworks; possible consequences for regional security.

Tone and Language

• Giannini maintains a sharp, sometimes acerbic tone, laden with irony and skepticism regarding the political spectacle surrounding peace initiatives.
• Language is precise yet accessible, mixing historical references, political analysis, and emotional appeals (“non ne possiamo più e quindi sperare nella pace è legittimo e doveroso”).
• He alternates between critical commentary and direct questioning, effectively drawing listeners into the complexity and gravity of the present moment.

Summary

Massimo Giannini dissects the latest bid for Middle East peace brokered by Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu, scrutinizing the substance behind the spectacle. He questions the viability of any deal that does not fully account for Israel’s far right and the entrenched motivations of Hamas, all while reminding listeners of the deep, unresolved wounds and interests that make “eternal peace” a daunting, possibly illusory, goal. The episode ultimately urges skepticism, historical perspective, and a wary eye toward the prospect of escalation in the region.