Danger in the Subways

Summary

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City Journal Audio – "Danger in the Subways" (January 9, 2025)

Host: Brian Anderson
Guest: Rafael Mangual, Nick Ohnell Fellow at the Manhattan Institute

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the rise in violent crime within New York City's subway system, examining recent high-profile incidents and the broader policy failures contributing to commuters' fear. Host Brian Anderson and guest Rafael Mangual discuss crime trends, profiles of offenders, shortfalls in criminal justice, and policy recommendations for restoring safety—a timely conversation as New Yorkers approach crucial local elections.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recent and Notable Subway Crimes

[01:04–02:21]

• Mangual recalls several recent violent incidents, from horrific immolations to fatal and non-fatal stabbings, shoving incidents, and the infamous Frank James mass shooting.
  • "There have been fatal stabbings. There have been non-fatal stabbings, including on the Metro North actually just in the first couple of days of this year... There really are kind of almost too many to count." (A, 01:18)
• Not all high-profile cases result in criminal convictions (e.g., Daniel Penny’s chokehold, Jordan Williams’s self-defense case).
• The violence is persistent and varied across the system.

2. Crime Trends: Statistics and the Real Risks

[02:21–03:53]

• Subway homicides have quadrupled compared to pre-2020 levels, now sometimes reaching double digits annually—far above the 1–2 annual murders typical before 2020.
  • "For about...10 to 15 years preceding 2020, New York would see about one to two subway murders a year... in 2020, that number spiked...about a 4x increase." (A, 02:30)
• Despite overall ridership being down to 70% of pre-pandemic levels, rates of serious crimes per ride—assault, sexual assault, grand larceny—are higher than raw numbers indicate.

3. Offender Profiles and the 'Revolving Door' Problem

[03:53–08:36]

• Offenders almost always have long criminal records, most with 5–20 prior arrests and multiple prior convictions, sometimes even more.
  • "Almost invariably the offenders...tend to be people with very lengthy criminal histories." (A, 04:07)
• Many are arrested while out on parole, probation, or with active warrants.
• Police Commissioner (in a recent January 7 press conference) cited a 150% increase in felony assaults committed by repeat offenders (those arrested for the same offense three times in a year).
• Systemic Failure: Police repeatedly arrest the same individuals, but failures "on the back end"—courts, prosecutions, lack of consequences—allow repeat offenders to return quickly.
  • "The criminal justice system is failing to act as a backstop to the efforts of the police who are making those arrests." (A, 05:24)
  • Anderson notes a recent case of a perpetrator with "80 priors." (B, 06:37)
  • "It's very frustrating. It's also demoralizing...when police are sort of calculating the costs and benefits associated with proactive enforcement, you can be sure that...even if they make an arrest, that that person's going to be back out on the street before they finish their paperwork." (A, 07:06)
• Prosecutions (such as Alvin Bragg’s handling of the Daniel Penny case) are perceived as discouraging proactive policing.

4. Policy Recommendations: How to Get the Subways Under Control

[08:36–12:55]
Drawing on their City Journal essay with Bill Bratton, Mangual outlines three key policy solutions:

A. Simplify and Enforce Fare Evasion Rules

• Fare evasion is a "public order offense" and a primary way police encounter more serious offenders.
• Current enforcement is "convoluted," with most fare evaders facing minor or unenforced penalties.
  • "Making fare evasion subject to arrest, I think, is going to be a key to sending the kind of message that public order is going to be taken under control." (A, 09:34)
• He references a recent shoving video: just before the attack, others freely hopped the turnstile, demonstrating "broken windows" theory in action.

B. Address the Repeat Offender Problem

• Making it harder for prolific offenders to rapidly return to the system is crucial.
• "Almost always when you see a heinous crime...it's going to be committed by somebody who has an extensive criminal history." (A, 11:21)

C. Expand Inpatient Psychiatric Infrastructure

• There’s an acute shortage of psychiatric beds due to pandemic-era reductions.
• Lack of treatment contributes to random violence by people in crisis; both legal and medical investments are needed.
• "Until that changes, I do think that we're going to remain at an elevated risk of the kinds of deranged acts of spontaneous violence against strangers..." (A, 12:31)

5. Political Context & Election Implications

[12:55–14:25]

• Safety concerns (on subways and citywide) are a "growing concern" for voters and loom large in upcoming city elections.
  • "I do think it's going to play a role. The question is, is there a sort of critical mass of voters for whom this is the primary motivating issue..." (A, 13:35)
• Mangual doubts the likelihood of a Republican mayor but sees an opening for a candidate focused on public safety, whether incumbent Eric Adams or a challenger.
• Ultimately, while elections will matter, real systemic change is about more than a single electoral outcome.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There really are kind of almost too many [violent subway incidents] to count.”
  — Rafael Mangual [01:18]

• “Almost all of these offenses are driven by people who have been in and out of the system on multiple occasions.”
  — Rafael Mangual [04:50]

• “Even if they make an arrest, that, that person's going to be back out on the street before they finish their paperwork.”
  — Rafael Mangual [07:24]

• “Making fare evasion subject to arrest, I think, is going to be a key to sending the kind of message that public order is going to be taken under control.”
  — Rafael Mangual [09:34]

• "Until that changes, I do think that we're going to remain at an elevated risk of the kinds of deranged acts of spontaneous violence against strangers that really do drive a lot of the fear that people have of the New York City subway system.”
  — Rafael Mangual [12:31]

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Key Segments & Timestamps

• Recent subway violence overview – [01:04–02:21]
• Crime data and contextual explanation – [02:21–03:53]
• Repeat offenders and system failures – [03:53–08:36]
• Policy solutions (fare evasion, repeat offenders, psychiatric beds) – [08:36–12:55]
• Political/election implications – [12:55–14:25]

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Tone & Style

The conversation is data-driven, sober, and concerned, reflecting City Journal's reputation for rigor. Mangual emphasizes systemic failure, policy detail, and political obstacles, but remains grounded in practical recommendations rather than alarmism. Notably, the tone is frustrated but determined—a call for accountability rather than resignation.

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For more:

• Read "How to Get the Subways Under Control" by Rafael Mangual and Bill Bratton (City Journal, Summer 2024).
• Rafael Mangual’s book: Criminal Injustice (2022).

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Summary curated for listeners and policymakers seeking a clear, detailed briefing on New York City's subway safety challenges and paths forward.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign.

[B]

Welcome Back to the 10 Blocks podcast. This is Brian Anderson, the editor of City Journal. Joining me on the show today is Rafael Manguel. He's the Nick Onel Fellow at the Manhattan Institute. He's a valued contributing editor at City Journal and he's a member of the Council on Criminal Justice. He published his first book, criminal injustice, in 2022. 2022, I should say. And he writes regularly for us on crime, public order, criminal justice reform and other related issues. Today we're going to discuss the deteriorating or seemingly deteriorating safety situation in in New York City's subways which have seen some horrible violent crimes recently. Ralph, always great to talk with you and thanks for joining us.

[A]

Thanks so much for having me back. Always great to be on.

[B]

So, you know, why don't we just start by having you recap, especially for people who are listening who are not in the New York area might not have been following this. Some of these deadly incidents that have taken place recently in the subway system.

[A]

Yeah. Well, you had a really gruesome immolation at the Coney Island Avenue stop just toward the end of last year, which, you know, really grabbed a lot of headlines. There have been fatal stabbings. There have been non fatal stabbings, including on the Metro north actually just in the first couple of days of this year. There was a near fatal subway shoving, you know, but over the last several years that there have been a lot of really terrible instances of deadly force being used within the subway system. You had the Frank James mass shooting, of course. You had the shooting murder of a Wall street executive. You had the deadly subway shoving of Michelle Go. You know, there really are kind of almost too many to count. And you know, that doesn't actually include other fatal encounters that were ultimately ruled self defense. Right. You had the Daniel Penney case with Jordan Neely where he placed Neely into a chokehold and Neely later died. You had a fatal stabbing that was ruled self defense on a Brooklyn subway earlier that same year committed by somebody named Jordan Williams, who was briefly in custody but then released. So, you know, the situation is actually.

[B]

Pretty dire in terms of numbers. There's been in recent years a lot more murders on the subway than had been the case historically for a while. Right?

[A]

That's right. I mean, you know, for about, you know, the 10 to 15 years preceding 2020, New York would see about one to two subway murders a year. Generally in 2020, that number spiked and we have seen it reach double digits on multiple occasions. So you're looking at about a 4x increase in annual subway homicides. Now, you know, people tend to respond to this by, well, you're still only talking about a relative handful or two of offenses. And you know, there are millions upon millions upon millions of rides every year. But that really, you know, that doesn't hold a lot of water. I mean, for one thing, the risk of subway homicide is not evenly distributed across all people who enter the subway. Right. You know, there are certain parts of the population that rely on the subway more than others. Right? So the risk is disproportionately borne by people who are riding the subway every day, multiple times a day. Different lines are at different risk. So, you know, some lines get more police protection, have more citizens, you know, more eyes on the street. And then, you know, the other thing that none of this sort of debate about what to make of the subway crime statistics really takes account of is the fact that subway ridership is still only at about 70% of its pre pandemic normal. Which means that you really have to adjust, you know, for that reality. And when you do that, what you start to see is that the rate of assault, of sexual assault, of homicides, of grand larcenies and other kinds of thefts on the subway system is actually higher than the raw number suggests.

[B]

And what do we know about the criminal profile of the perpetrators in these cases? And you know, more broadly, what does that tell us about, you know, the state of current laws regarding public safety and, you know, public safety generally?

[A]

I mean, almost invariably the offenders of these types of offenses, you know, tend to be people with very lengthy criminal histories. I mean, this is something that we've been covering at the Manhattan Institute and at City Journal for quite some time now. What you'll see is anywhere between, you know, five to 20 prior arrests on average, you'll see prior convictions. You'll often see people who had active criminal justice statuses, right? So people who are out on probation or out on parole or have a warrant out for their arrest. And you know, the police commissioner, just earlier today we're talking on January 7th, during a press conference about the year end crime statistics, was talking about the rise of repeat offenders. In the crimes that are still elevated, crimes like felony assaults, which have gone up significantly in the subway system, she cited a nearly 150% rise in, in the share of those offenses committed by people who had been arrested for the same offense three times in the prior year, which is actually a relatively narrow definition of repeat offender. If you broaden that definition out to include people who just have criminal History, prior criminal histories. What you'll find is that almost all of these offenses are driven by people who have been in and out of the system on multiple occasions. And what that tells you is two things, really. I mean, it tells you that the police are actually doing a pretty good job of directing their resources, which is to say that the fact that somebody who has committed a homicide or a serious assault in the subway system has 10 or 12 or 20 prior arrests tells you that the criminal justice system, at least at the front end, is picking up on the bad conduct. But it also tells you that on the back end, the criminal justice system is failing to act as a backstop to the efforts of the police who are making those arrests, which is why these individuals keep finding themselves back out on the street. And, you know, that revolving door problem is really at the root of, you know, the subway violence and disorder problem that we're all really concerned about. I mean, you know, I would just point listeners back to the essay I did over the summer with Commissioner Bill Bratton. Part of that I did, you know, a couple of ride alongs with officers in the transit department of the nypd. And what we saw consistently was that when they would make an arrest and they would run the criminal history of the person that they arrested, inevitably these were people that had more than a dozen in one case prior arrests with, you know, and that is ultimately the thing that needs to get under control. I mean, you know, the primary response on the part of the city to this problem seems to be putting police back into the system. And that is good and necessary. But what we're seeing right now in the data is that it's also insufficient. Without the broader system operating as a backstop and committing to following through on the arrests being made, there's really not a lot of hope that this problem can be brought under control.

[B]

You really do have this kind of revolving door situation where there was the stabbing guy who had stabbed a couple of different people was caught this week completely deranged. I think he had read one report that said he had 80 priors. People who aren't familiar with what's going on in the criminal justice system in New York are going to look at that and say, how, how is that even possible? And I guess it must be, you know, frustrating for police to be rearresting these people over and over and over again and then just seeing them go out and commit some heinous crime.

[A]

It's very frustrating. It's also demoralizing, right? Because the reality is, is that every Time the police go to make an arrest, they are putting themselves at physical risk, and they're also risking legal exposure, too. Right? I mean, you know, it's no secret that this New York City Council and, you know, people like Alvin Bragg would be very, very happy to prosecute a New York City police officer for overstepp the course of making an arrest. And so when police are sort of calculating the costs and benefits associated with proactive enforcement, you can be sure that one of the things that they're weighing is the likelihood that even if they make an arrest, that that person's going to be back out on the street before they finish their paperwork. And, you know, that kind of problem, which is much more common than I think a lot of people, you know, understand, even outside of places like New York City, it breeds a lot of resentment, and it communicates to the broader public that no one's coming to save them. And that that sort of realization was exacerbated, I think, also by the prosecution of Daniel Penney by Alvin Bragg, you know, for doing something that I think a lot of New Yorkers hoped would be done if they were in the sort of situation that the other riders in that train car were in when Jordan Neely stepped in in the midst of a psychotic break and started making threats. So, you know, the city is really kind of facing a very arduous uphill journey in the near future. And, you know, the question is, is are we going to make the political changes that we need to make in order, problem under control? And I think the first hint of an answer to that question is going to come in November with the local elections here in New York City.

[B]

Yeah, that's looming. You know, you mentioned this signed essay that you and Bill Bratton wrote. It appeared in our Summer 2024 issue. It's called how to get the Subways Under Control. I'd like to return to that for a moment and, you know, maybe just briefly say what the main steps you and Bratton outlined there are, and maybe the political context has to shift to achieve some of these. But. Yeah, what's your case?

[A]

There's. Yeah, I mean, you know, basically, it's. It's kind of a tripartite analysis. I mean, the three things that need to happen to, you know, set the stage for a real recovery in terms of subway safety is that we need to simplify the fare evasion rules, because fare evasion is a public order offense that really is at the root of the broader public order issue within the subway system. It is one of the primary means by which more serious criminal offenders are being contacted by police and ultimately subjected to arrests or more serious crimes that are discovered throughout the course of the investigation. We out outline this in the piece, but when police office, the reality is that most offenders are not advertising their propensity to offend in an outwardly obvious way. People who run robbery rings don't wear their firearms on visible holsters. Drug dealers generally don't set up shop with their drugs out on a display table in full public view. So the police need an opportunity to discover contraband, to discover open warrants, to discover concealed firearms. And one of the ways, the primary ways in which that's done within the subway system is through the enforcement of the fare. Problem is, is, is that in New York City, fair enforcement has become this convoluted mess where we have these different tiers of enforcement where most people are generally subjected to a fine or a civil summons. I should say that has no. That they have no reason to pay, which is to say that if they fail to answer the summons, there's no warrant that issues. Nothing really happens to them. There's a narrower category of people who can be given a criminal summons, but only if they have a very specific kind of criminal history within the subway system. And if they don't pay their fine, then a warrant will issue. But the people who can be arrested for fare evasion are people who have very, very, very lengthy and recent criminal histories within that are specific to the transit system. And that's one of the things that really needs to change. Making fare evasion subject to arrest, I think is going to be a key to sending the kind of message that public order is going to be taken under control. And one of the things that I would just point listeners to, and I'm sure they all saw the horrific video of the recent nearly fatal subway shoving down in Chelsea on 18th Street. And if you watch that video, what you see is just before the gentleman who was shoved onto the tracks in front of a moving train was assaulted, two other people hopped the turnstile into the station. And, you know, it was kind of this perfect encapsulation of the broken windows issue that we've been calling attention to for, you know, decades now. But the reality is, is that where disorder is allowed to fester, those are going to be the places that become more vulnerable to more serious kinds of crimes. And it's not at all a coincidence that that particularly horrific felony assault was preceded by what people would consider less serious forms of disorder. So simplifying the Fare evasion rules and upping enforcement, I think, is step number one. Step number two is addressing the repeat offender problem that we've already talked about. Almost always when you see a heinous crime committed on the subway or even outside the subway, it's going to be committed by somebody who has an extensive criminal history. Making sure that these people are not able to easily find themselves. Their way back into the system, I think is absolutely going to be crucial to reinstituting the kind of safety that we had grown accustomed to in this city. And then finally, you need to expand the number of inpatient psychiatric beds available in the city, which is something that Mayor Adams has been talking about. And even Governor Hogle has lent her support, seemingly. But, you know, the infrastructure just isn't there. You know, the legal rules need to be expanded, need to be changed. And more than that, though, we need to increase the investment that we're making in building out the number of available beds because there just aren't enough. And that number had been reduced during the pandemic. It has not been fully recovered. And until that changes, I do think that we're going to remain at an elevated risk of the kinds of deranged acts of spontaneous violence against strangers that really do drive a lot of the fear that people have of the New York City subway system. And ultimately that just affects the prospects for New York's recovery writ large.

[B]

Well, that's a very useful breakdown if we want to read the details of Ralph and Bill Bratton's argument. The piece is again called how to get the Subways under Control. You can find it on our website. Finally, Ralph, you mentioned the political context. You have some big elections looming, including a mayoral race coming up. And, you know, you look around and look at polls, and a lot of them show that New Yorkers are growing in their concern over public safety, both underground and above ground. You know, how big a role do you think this safety issue is going to play in the upcoming political races in voters minds? And do we have cause for hope or sanity from any of the potential candidates here, especially in New York City?

[A]

I do think it's going to play a role. The question is, is there a sort of critical mass of voters for whom this is the primary motivating issue who are going to turn out? Not in the general election, certainly, but in the Democratic primary, you know, which has already happened. Right. That's going to be the main driver. I mean, I don't think New York City is necessarily ready for a Republican mayor. I don't know, if I see that happen, if I were to put my political prognostication hat on. But I do think that there are a lot of people who are growing increasingly fed up. And so there is going to be a lane for someone to take on the public safety front. Now, whether that's the incumbent Mayor Adams, or somebody else throwing their hat into the ring, you know, that remains to be seen. But I'm not really sure ultimately that the New York City election cycle is going to determine success or failure on this front.

[B]

Much too much to be concerned about and to watch. One of the best people out there keeping an eye on this. Ralph Our guest has been Rafael Manguel. He writes regularly for City Journal and other outlets on these vital public safety issues. His book Criminal Injustice is Out came out in 2022 and you can pick it up. You'll see a link to it in his author page in our description. You can also find cityjournal on Twitter. That's ittyjournal or I should stay on Next and on Instagram ittyjournalmi. If you've enjoyed this podcast today, please give us a five star rating on iTunes. Ralph, great to talk with you as always.

[A]

Great to be on Talk Soon.

[B]

Thanks for joining us for the weekly 10 Blocks podcast featuring urban policy and cultural commentary with City Journal editors, contributors and special guests.