City Journal Audio – "Danger in the Subways" (January 9, 2025)

Host: Brian Anderson
Guest: Rafael Mangual, Nick Ohnell Fellow at the Manhattan Institute

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the rise in violent crime within New York City's subway system, examining recent high-profile incidents and the broader policy failures contributing to commuters' fear. Host Brian Anderson and guest Rafael Mangual discuss crime trends, profiles of offenders, shortfalls in criminal justice, and policy recommendations for restoring safety—a timely conversation as New Yorkers approach crucial local elections.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recent and Notable Subway Crimes

[01:04–02:21]

• Mangual recalls several recent violent incidents, from horrific immolations to fatal and non-fatal stabbings, shoving incidents, and the infamous Frank James mass shooting.
  • "There have been fatal stabbings. There have been non-fatal stabbings, including on the Metro North actually just in the first couple of days of this year... There really are kind of almost too many to count." (A, 01:18)
• Not all high-profile cases result in criminal convictions (e.g., Daniel Penny’s chokehold, Jordan Williams’s self-defense case).
• The violence is persistent and varied across the system.

2. Crime Trends: Statistics and the Real Risks

[02:21–03:53]

• Subway homicides have quadrupled compared to pre-2020 levels, now sometimes reaching double digits annually—far above the 1–2 annual murders typical before 2020.
  • "For about...10 to 15 years preceding 2020, New York would see about one to two subway murders a year... in 2020, that number spiked...about a 4x increase." (A, 02:30)
• Despite overall ridership being down to 70% of pre-pandemic levels, rates of serious crimes per ride—assault, sexual assault, grand larceny—are higher than raw numbers indicate.

3. Offender Profiles and the 'Revolving Door' Problem

[03:53–08:36]

• Offenders almost always have long criminal records, most with 5–20 prior arrests and multiple prior convictions, sometimes even more.
  • "Almost invariably the offenders...tend to be people with very lengthy criminal histories." (A, 04:07)
• Many are arrested while out on parole, probation, or with active warrants.
• Police Commissioner (in a recent January 7 press conference) cited a 150% increase in felony assaults committed by repeat offenders (those arrested for the same offense three times in a year).
• Systemic Failure: Police repeatedly arrest the same individuals, but failures "on the back end"—courts, prosecutions, lack of consequences—allow repeat offenders to return quickly.
  • "The criminal justice system is failing to act as a backstop to the efforts of the police who are making those arrests." (A, 05:24)
  • Anderson notes a recent case of a perpetrator with "80 priors." (B, 06:37)
  • "It's very frustrating. It's also demoralizing...when police are sort of calculating the costs and benefits associated with proactive enforcement, you can be sure that...even if they make an arrest, that that person's going to be back out on the street before they finish their paperwork." (A, 07:06)
• Prosecutions (such as Alvin Bragg’s handling of the Daniel Penny case) are perceived as discouraging proactive policing.

4. Policy Recommendations: How to Get the Subways Under Control

[08:36–12:55]
Drawing on their City Journal essay with Bill Bratton, Mangual outlines three key policy solutions:

A. Simplify and Enforce Fare Evasion Rules

• Fare evasion is a "public order offense" and a primary way police encounter more serious offenders.
• Current enforcement is "convoluted," with most fare evaders facing minor or unenforced penalties.
  • "Making fare evasion subject to arrest, I think, is going to be a key to sending the kind of message that public order is going to be taken under control." (A, 09:34)
• He references a recent shoving video: just before the attack, others freely hopped the turnstile, demonstrating "broken windows" theory in action.

B. Address the Repeat Offender Problem

• Making it harder for prolific offenders to rapidly return to the system is crucial.
• "Almost always when you see a heinous crime...it's going to be committed by somebody who has an extensive criminal history." (A, 11:21)

C. Expand Inpatient Psychiatric Infrastructure

• There’s an acute shortage of psychiatric beds due to pandemic-era reductions.
• Lack of treatment contributes to random violence by people in crisis; both legal and medical investments are needed.
• "Until that changes, I do think that we're going to remain at an elevated risk of the kinds of deranged acts of spontaneous violence against strangers..." (A, 12:31)

5. Political Context & Election Implications

[12:55–14:25]

• Safety concerns (on subways and citywide) are a "growing concern" for voters and loom large in upcoming city elections.
  • "I do think it's going to play a role. The question is, is there a sort of critical mass of voters for whom this is the primary motivating issue..." (A, 13:35)
• Mangual doubts the likelihood of a Republican mayor but sees an opening for a candidate focused on public safety, whether incumbent Eric Adams or a challenger.
• Ultimately, while elections will matter, real systemic change is about more than a single electoral outcome.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There really are kind of almost too many [violent subway incidents] to count.”
  — Rafael Mangual [01:18]

• “Almost all of these offenses are driven by people who have been in and out of the system on multiple occasions.”
  — Rafael Mangual [04:50]

• “Even if they make an arrest, that, that person's going to be back out on the street before they finish their paperwork.”
  — Rafael Mangual [07:24]

• “Making fare evasion subject to arrest, I think, is going to be a key to sending the kind of message that public order is going to be taken under control.”
  — Rafael Mangual [09:34]

• "Until that changes, I do think that we're going to remain at an elevated risk of the kinds of deranged acts of spontaneous violence against strangers that really do drive a lot of the fear that people have of the New York City subway system.”
  — Rafael Mangual [12:31]

Key Segments & Timestamps

• Recent subway violence overview – [01:04–02:21]
• Crime data and contextual explanation – [02:21–03:53]
• Repeat offenders and system failures – [03:53–08:36]
• Policy solutions (fare evasion, repeat offenders, psychiatric beds) – [08:36–12:55]
• Political/election implications – [12:55–14:25]

Tone & Style

The conversation is data-driven, sober, and concerned, reflecting City Journal's reputation for rigor. Mangual emphasizes systemic failure, policy detail, and political obstacles, but remains grounded in practical recommendations rather than alarmism. Notably, the tone is frustrated but determined—a call for accountability rather than resignation.

For more:

• Read "How to Get the Subways Under Control" by Rafael Mangual and Bill Bratton (City Journal, Summer 2024).
• Rafael Mangual’s book: Criminal Injustice (2022).

Summary curated for listeners and policymakers seeking a clear, detailed briefing on New York City's subway safety challenges and paths forward.