Podcast Summary: City Journal Audio

Episode: How Did Zohran Mamdani Win?
Date: November 19, 2025
Host: Rafael Mangual (A)
Guests: Renu Mukherjee (C), Santiago Villal Calvo (B)

Overview

This episode addresses the surprising victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York's mayoral election. Host Rafael Mangual and guests Renu Mukherjee and Santiago Villal Calvo analyze the demographic changes, campaign strategies, and broader political shifts that contributed to Mamdani's success. They discuss the implications for future elections, the importance of ethnic and economic appeals, and challenge the notion that demographic change inevitably favors the political left.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Shifting Electorate in New York City

• Immigration and New Arrivals:

  • Mangual notes Mamdani’s overwhelming win among people who have lived in NYC for less than 10 years, a group encompassing both domestic transplants and recent immigrants ([02:40]).

  • Renu highlights the rapid growth of the South Asian population (now approx. 5% of NYC), noting their historic low voter turnout but increased engagement due to sustained outreach by Mamdani ([03:58]–[05:27]).

    “The South Asian population in New York City has really sort of exploded over the last decade or so…Mamandi had really been cultivating their votes from when he first ran for state assembly in 2020.”
    — Renu Mukherjee ([04:30])

• Hispanic Community Turnout:

  • Santiago explains how Latinos, now about 25% of the city’s population, were crucial to Mamdani’s coalition ([06:32]).

  • The Latino vote did not necessarily reflect ideological alignment, but rather resonance with economic issues, specifically affordability.

    "When somebody comes and sells you this great plan and idea that we’re going to fix your life up and down…a lot of people heard Mandani because it appealed to their inner core problems."
    — Santiago Villal Calvo ([07:50])

2. Challenging the "Demographics Is Destiny" Narrative

• Swing Toward Republicans Nationally:

  • Both guests refer to data showing growing minority support for Republicans from 2012 to 2024, signaling that demographic shifts do not automatically benefit Democrats ([11:34]–[13:04]).

    “This notion…that increased immigration automatically means that racial minorities are going to en mass [join the] Democratic Party has actually been disproved by the data over the last 12 years or so.”
    — Renu Mukherjee ([12:03])

• Type of Immigration Matters:

  • Santiago cites Florida as a counter-example, where right-leaning Cuban, Venezuelan, and other immigrants have driven Republican dominance ([09:57]).
  • Advocates for policies attracting "high skill immigration that does not believe the lies of socialist candidates" ([10:59]).

3. Economic Issues as the Key Motivator

• Affordability & Inflation:

  • The high cost of living and economic insecurity united voters across demographic lines, overruling traditional cultural or ideological divides ([13:28]–[15:12]).

  • Mamdani’s message was effective because he addressed these bread-and-butter concerns, not because he relied on identity politics.

    "What was the sort of message that Mamdani ended up running on…but also more moderate Democrats such as Abigail Spanberger in Virginia…they ran on these messages while at the same time making Trump their foil."
    — Renu Mukherjee ([13:39])

4. Evolution of Campaign Appeals

• Identity Politics vs. Ethnic Politics:

  • Mamdani minimized classic identity politics, instead tailoring messages to specific ethnic communities ([15:12]–[17:34]).

  • Santiago argues Mamdani won not by emphasizing identity, but by establishing himself as a relatable immigrant voice, connecting through language, neighborhood engagement, and nuanced appeals ([17:34]–[20:48]).

    "He knew that his two cards were how do we evolution this step of vote for me, but connect with voters on the idea of I know who you are and you can connect with me this way."
    — Santiago Villal Calvo ([18:32])

5. Limits of Progressive Transplant Politics

• Transplants as Political Establishment:

  • Concern over progressive university transplants dominating NYC politics ([20:48]–[22:35]).

  • Renu points to Charles Lamont’s argument that centrists must now organize as an out-group to compete with this new establishment ([22:35]–[25:59]).

    "If New Yorkers have…more of a centrist party…then I don’t think that we’ve lost New York’s future to the sort of progressive transplant Mamdani, Jack Schlossberg, you know, ITE type of candidate."
    — Renu Mukherjee ([25:36])

6. What Comes Next?

• Long-Term Prospects:

  • Santiago suggests that Mamdani’s term will prove a test for socialist governance in a major US city. If he underperforms, it could generate backlash ([26:50]–[29:39]).

    "If Mandani were not to succeed…if he doesn’t succeed in his agenda…and let’s say…his majorship is going to fail…then I think it would also show voters that maybe we should not vote for these people anymore."
    — Santiago Villal Calvo ([27:44])

• The Role of Candidate Quality:

  • The group laments the lack of strong, competent opposition; calls for investment in building better candidates in NYC — not just conceding the city to the left ([29:39]–[31:20]).

    "It's one of the more frustrating things…I mean, look, I enjoy Curtis Sliwa’s radio show…But that was not going to be the next mayor…no one’s really invested in this city."
    — Rafael Mangual ([29:39])

7. Lessons for Future Campaigns

• Competence Wins:

  • Renu highlights the example of Boston Mayor Michelle Wu: despite progressive positions, she’s popular because of perceived (and real) effectiveness on city basics ([31:20]–[33:38]).

  • Bread-and-butter issues (public safety, clean streets, transit reliability) can transcend ideological divides.

    "If you can just convince voters that you’re competent, you can get things done, they are going to vote for you at the end of the day."
    — Renu Mukherjee ([33:33])

• Tactical Recommendations:

  • Santiago suggests mayors should not needlessly antagonize the federal government, should focus on perception and basics like public safety and transit, and must be able to manage big events (World Cup, city anniversaries, etc.) ([35:05]–[38:42]).

    "Cleaning up the subway from crime is one of the things that any mayor could do…those are things that you can do and are popular regardless of the aisle."
    — Santiago Villal Calvo ([37:00])

• Ethnic Outreach Without Grievance Politics:

  • Renu emphasizes the need for nuanced, issue-based outreach to different communities — not grievance-based identity appeals ([39:29]–[41:56]).

  • Cites example of NJ Democrat Mikey Sherrill’s targeted outreach to Indian communities.

    "Ethnic politics is not necessarily any more synonymous with identity politics. I think that’s something that Mamdani was aware of in this most recent election." — Renu Mukherjee ([39:29])

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “The South Asian population in New York City has really sort of exploded over the last decade or so…Mamandi had really been cultivating their votes from when he first ran for state assembly in 2020.”
  — Renu Mukherjee ([04:30])

• "When somebody comes and sells you this great plan and idea that we’re going to fix your life up and down…a lot of people heard Mandani because it appealed to their inner core problems."
  — Santiago Villal Calvo ([07:50])

• “This notion…that increased immigration automatically means that racial minorities are going to en mass [join the] Democratic Party has actually been disproved by the data over the last 12 years or so.”
  — Renu Mukherjee ([12:03])

• “He knew that his two cards were how do we evolution this step of vote for me, but connect with voters on the idea of I know who you are and you can connect with me this way.”
  — Santiago Villal Calvo ([18:32])

• "If you can just convince voters that you’re competent, you can get things done, they are going to vote for you at the end of the day."
  — Renu Mukherjee ([33:33])

• "Ethnic politics is not necessarily any more synonymous with identity politics. I think that’s something that Mamdani was aware of in this most recent election."
  — Renu Mukherjee ([39:29])

Key Segments & Timestamps

• Introduction and Framing – [00:09]–[03:58]
• South Asian and Hispanic Voter Turnout – [03:58]–[07:50]
• Economic Issues and the Latino Swing – [07:50]–[13:28]
• Mixed Impact of Demographic Changes and New York’s Political Future – [13:28]–[20:48]
• Analysis of Progressive "Transplant" Politics – [20:48]–[26:50]
• Implications of Mamdani’s Victory; What Happens Next – [26:50]–[33:38]
• Lessons for Candidates: Competence, Campaigning, and Outreach – [33:38]–[41:56]
• Final Recommendations for Political Strategy – [41:56]–[End]

Conclusion

The episode underscores that demographic change in New York is complex and multidirectional. Zohran Mamdani’s win was not inevitable nor was it solely a function of ideology; his strategic outreach, emphasis on affordability, and relative competence on local issues enabled a broad coalition. For challengers, the lesson is clear: ethnic outreach, competence, and a focus on everyday issues matter more than broad ideological or identity-based appeals. The future of New York politics will be shaped not by inevitability, but by who can speak most credibly to the needs, frustrations, and real lives of New Yorkers.