City Journal Audio: "Shutdown Politics, Filibuster Fights, and the 'Abundance Bros'"

Date: October 2, 2025
Host: Rafael Mangual
Guests: Jesse Arm & Charles Fain Lehman (Manhattan Institute for Policy Research)

Episode Overview

In this lively and insightful roundtable, the City Journal team delves into the 2025 federal government shutdown, the strategic and philosophical battles around the filibuster, intra-party politics, and emerging moderate factions like the "Abundance Bros." The latter half of the episode brings a lighter tone, touching on Bad Bunny's upcoming Super Bowl halftime show and personal music recommendations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 2025 Federal Government Shutdown (01:24 – 21:49)

• Background & Core Issues:

  • The shutdown began October 1, 2025. Republicans who control Congress wanted a "clean extension" of government funding; Democrats refused, insisting on extending ACA (Obamacare) pandemic-era subsidies and reversing Medicaid cuts from previous legislation.
  • Charles: “Their two big asks were about a highly salient issue, a good issue for Democrats, which is health insurance.” (03:17)
  • Jesse contextualizes the conflict as rooted in Chuck Schumer’s response to pressure from Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (AOC) and the Democratic base:
    “This is really happening because Chuck Schumer is scared of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. He has very bad favorability ratings in his home state of New York. AOC has better ones.” (04:17)

• Political Calculus and Blame:

  • Democrats are feeling pressure to make a "sweeping gesture." At the same time, the common wisdom is that starting a shutdown hurts the instigating party.
  • Jesse: “It's sad because…there are a lot of people in the federal government and who rely on federal government services, who are going to pay the price for this. And it's also not going to have the intended political effect that Schumer believes it will.” (05:17)

• Technical Arguments (Rescission, Debt Ceiling, Spending Rules):

  • Charles introduces "rescission"—reversing appropriated funds by a simple majority, complicating negotiations.
    “Turns out they can do rescission, at least in some cases through 50 votes…So part of what Democrats are saying right now is, ‘Why would we sign on to a 60-vote deal if they can just turn around and stab us in the back with 50 votes later?’” (07:13)

• Filibuster and Dysfunction:

  • The 60-vote Senate filibuster threshold for spending vs. 50-vote rescission exacerbates gridlock.
  • Rafael: “It's much more detrimental to the country to spend money we don't have like a crackhead with $300 in his pocket…” (08:47)

2. The Filibuster: Principle, Practice, and Prospects (09:43 – 19:59)

• Erosion of Trust and Institutional Dysfunction:

  • Jesse: “The problem…is that Democrats don't trust Republicans to actually follow the spending laws that have already been passed.” (09:12)

• Philosophy of the Filibuster:

  • Rafael outlines its Federalist 10-style origins as a check on majoritarian power but notes the Senate itself is already counter-majoritarian.
    “This is sort of a counter majoritarian measure on top of a counter majoritarian measure. It seems kind of redundant…” (11:41)

• Debate Over Its Future:

  • Charles: “I tend to think more generally…Democrats do not believe, and Republicans often do not believe, that the other party is willing to play a coordinated game…” (10:22)
  • Jesse notes the filibuster has survived mainly for lack of situations where it truly blocks something the majority wants:
    “The moment it becomes the real obstacle between a party that holds the White House and Congress and a massive legislative prize, it'll probably disappear.” (12:37)

• Broader Congressional Lethargy:

  • Rafael attributes dysfunction more to Congress ceding power and responsibility to the executive:
    “They don't really have an incentive to pass laws because… the executive can do it and let them take the political fall for it.” (16:24)

• Political Consequences of ‘Nuking’ the Filibuster:

  • While the filibuster has been ended for judicial nominations, Jesse and Charles debate whether such procedural moves actually incur real electoral costs.
  • Charles: “When people do things that are bad, they are penalized electorally. And when people do things that are good, they are rewarded electorally.” (19:24)

• Shutdown Outcome Predictions:

  • Charles doubts the outcome will matter much politically:
    “Is anyone going to remember this in November of next year? Probably not.” (20:15)
  • Jesse, referencing prediction markets, expects “longer than 10 days but less than 35” for the shutdown to end. (21:50 – 22:22)

3. Intra-Democratic Party Tensions, Moderation, and the “Abundance Bros” (23:10 – 34:43)

• Democratic Party’s Dilemma:

  • Increasing anti-cooperation rhetoric and radical policy positions make moderation hard; Rafael lists examples from ICE protests to rhetoric about “Nazis” and “Gestapo.”
  • Charles: “I’m deeply skeptical of the ability of Democrats to discipline the radical wing of their party that dictated policy in 2020, that dictated policy through much of the Biden administration…” (26:22)

• Rise of the “Abundance Bros”:

  • A new faction (inspired by Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson’s book Abundance) argues for liberal goals via deregulatory, pro-growth reforms.
  • Jesse: “You have to embrace certain numbers of deregulations so that government can work in tandem with the private sector to achieve very Big things. It's an interesting faction, but everybody also kind of wants a slice of it.” (27:17)

• Coalition Politics and the Elusive Center:

  • Charles: “There really is a coherent middle. And the question is just…who is able to grab onto the middle?… The politician who has most effectively seized control of the middle…is Donald Trump.” (33:25)
  • The left, as Jesse notes, is now often an ideological movement, while the right is a “big confusing coalition.”

4. Cultural Closer: Bad Bunny, the Super Bowl, and Playlist Picks (38:10 – End)

• Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl Halftime Show:

  • Debated as both exciting and questionable for the NFL’s mostly English-speaking, American-focused base.
  • Jesse: “If the NFL is obsessed with globalizing its product…then sure, I guess Bad Bunny makes sense…But if you think of the NFL and football as…the center of so much of what we talk about…then… the Super Bowl halftime show should be in English.” (38:14)

• Music Choices:

  • Charles sheepishly admits to rarely listening to new music, mainly podcasts and classics (Billy Joel’s “Vienna,” country, and hip-hop).
  • Jesse: “I listen to the pop singer from Israel, Omer Adam, a lot, but I think he would make zero sense as a Super bowl halftime performer.” (41:51)
  • Rafael’s gym playlist is Joel Ortiz’s “Love, Peace and Trauma”: “I know gangsta rap and the Manhattan Institute doesn't always sound super coherent, but it's what gets me going…” (42:11)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Jesse on Shutdown Motivation:
  “This is really happening because Chuck Schumer is scared of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. He has very bad favorability ratings in his home state…” (04:17)

• Charles on Congressional Responsibility:
  “The solution to many of our problems … is to expose our elected legislators to more situations in which they are held directly accountable for decisions that they are formally empowered to make.” (19:37)

• Rafael on Party Incentives:
  “They don't really have an incentive to pass laws because, well, the executive can do it and let them take the political fall for it.” (16:24)

• On Abundance Moderation:
  Jesse: “You have to embrace certain numbers of deregulations so that government can work in tandem with the private sector to achieve very Big things.” (27:17)

• Charles on Political Center:
  “The politician who has most effectively seized control of the middle of the discourse in America today is Donald Trump.” (33:40)

• Jesse on Cultural Shifts:
  “NFL football is the one thing that consistently Americans are tuning into…So with that said, I don't think it's particularly nativist or xenophobic to suggest that the super bowl halftime show should be in English.” (38:14)

Notable Timestamps

• Shutdown Motivation and Blame: 04:01 – 05:42
• Filibuster & Congress Dysfunction: 09:43 – 16:24
• Predictions on Shutdown Duration: 21:50 – 22:22
• “Abundance Bros” and Moderation: 27:17 – 34:43
• Bad Bunny/Super Bowl Discussion: 38:10 – 41:07

Episode Tone & Style

• Language/Tone: Conversational, irreverent, and deeply knowledgeable. Frequent in-jokes and asides (e.g., “Republican-funded counterweight to NPR”), as well as playful ribbing among co-hosts.
• Style: Combines policy wonkery with pop culture and a wry, skeptical humor.

Summary Takeaway

This episode of City Journal Audio deftly explores the mechanics and motivations behind government shutdowns, the logic and prospects for the filibuster, and the challenges facing both parties as they try to capture—rather than lose—the “center” of American politics. The rise of the “Abundance Bros” and the shifting cultural terrain (as in the Bad Bunny debate) underscore an era where political and cultural fault lines are both familiar and unexpectedly fluid.