How much good is lost when charity optimizes only for what can be measured? When does a cost-effectiveness model clarify reality, and when does it create false confidence? Could the most important interventions be the ones that look too uncertain, too political, or too indirect to fit neatly into a spreadsheet? What would it mean to judge philanthropy not only by the marginal dollar, but by its power to unlock whole systems of future impact? And if social change follows a power law, should doing good look less like buying guaranteed outcomes and more like building a portfolio of serious bets? Why might cash transfers be unusually powerful despite their simplicity? What happens when money does not just help one household, but circulates through an entire local economy? How should we weigh scalable, robust interventions against more complex programs that may work brilliantly only when execution is excellent? What do donors miss when they ignore team quality, government relationships, political context, and second-order effects? And in a world where every intervention sits inside a messy system, how do we stay rigorous without becoming trapped by certainty?

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GiveDirectly

Nick Allardice is the President and CEO of GiveDirectly, which uses technology to send cash directly to people living in poverty, and has variously been named amongst the most audacious, innovative and fastest growing organizations in the world.

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