Dave Penski | Publicis Groupe | Media in the Age of AI: PART 2

Summary

CMO Confidential: Dave Penski | Media in the Age of AI – PART 2

Date: March 31, 2026
Host: Mike Linton
Guest: Dave Penski, Publicis Groupe
Episode Theme:
This episode explores the evolving media and advertising landscape amidst economic uncertainty, technological change, and shifting consumer behaviors, with a particular focus on the implications of AI, streaming, sports, gambling, and the strategic outlook for CMOs heading toward 2027.

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Main Themes & Purpose

• Assessing the real-world impact of the "hollowing out" of the middle class on marketing and business.
• Evaluating the state of media investment: the K-shaped economy and its ripple effects.
• Insights into streaming industry consolidation, sports as “AI-proof” content, and complex issues in gambling.
• Forward-looking advice for marketers and leaders preparing for industry headwinds in 2027.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The K Economy and Socioeconomic Shifts

• Definition and Challenge:
  Dave elaborates on the "K economy," where higher-income consumers buoy certain markets, while middle and lower-income segments face increasing challenges.

  “If you look across a majority of our clients, it’s a big part, and there’s a number of our clients that have more on the higher end...the ultra wealthy have covered up some of the problem of the top 1 or 2%.” — Dave Penski (02:16)

• Inflation & Consumer Impact:
  While official data may point to low inflation, everyday consumers feel squeezed, especially at the lower end, making profitability and customer retention a challenge for brands positioned toward those segments.
• Corporate Profits vs. Consumer Confidence:
  Corporate profits remain stable, supporting current ad spend, but declining consumer confidence could quickly erode advertiser confidence—something Dave flags as a looming risk.

  “When the consumer becomes finicky and it can lose consumer confidence, you then start losing advertiser confidence.” — Dave (04:19)

Advertising Market Cycles & The "F Curve"

• Political and Sports Event Buoyancy:
  Ad markets in 2026 are temporarily bolstered by political campaigns (midterms), Olympics, and the World Cup, but Dave predicts a sharp decline (“fail curve” or “F curve”) in 2027 when these vanish.

  “If I’m running an advertising company, that’s a pretty tough...called F Curve. Called it, Mike.” — Dave (08:21)

• Advice to Marketers:

  “Don’t spend all your 26 bonus in 27 because it might not be so good.” — Mike Linton (08:51)

Streaming Consolidation

• Industry Moves:
  Dave reacts positively to the (hypothetical) Paramount–Warner Brothers merger, highlighting increased competition as healthy for advertisers and consumers, reminiscent of media’s six-major-players dynamic of 20 years ago.

  “...it’s a much better place for Warner Brothers. I think it’s great. And I think Netflix being separate is probably better for our ecosystem.” — Dave (11:36)

• Cable’s Decline and Streaming’s Rise:
  Most key content and new production have moved to streaming, leaving cable with reduced relevance.
• Healthy Competition:

  “A bunch of big players is good versus one or two big players by themselves.” — Mike (12:25)

Live Sports as an Advertising Anchor

• Why Sports Is “AI-Proof”:
  Live sports remains must-see TV and immune to the kind of disruption AI brings to other categories.

  “Sports is as AI proof as it gets.” — Dave (14:06)

• Consumer Experience Challenges:
  Fragmentation across platforms and clunky switching between apps frustrate viewers and risk reducing live sports audience size.

  “If I was, if I as a consumer and probably as an advertiser, if I could fix one thing on sports, the ability for us to go back and forth...” — Dave (15:39)

• Hope for Unified Interfaces:
  Dave points to providers like YouTube TV as best-in-class for easier navigation and pushes for broader industry solutions.

Gambling: A Double-Edged Sword

• Growth and Risk:
  Gambling adds excitement and viewership to sports but also introduces risks—particularly around game integrity and regulation.
• Need for Regulation:
  Dave voices concern over the ability to bet large sums on lower-tier college games, which could incentivize fixing and threaten the essential unpredictability of sports.

  “If you destroy the fact that sports is...if you make sports fixed, that’s the killing of the goose...” — Mike (18:59)

• Drama Drives Engagement:
  The appeal of sports is in the drama and unpredictability, which could erode if competition becomes too tied to wealth or is undermined by fixing.

Advice for CMOs Planning for 2027

• Focus on Identity and Customer Understanding:

  “Make sure you’re able to understand who your customers are, who your prospects are, and the most efficient way to reach both.” — Dave (21:23)

• Update Strategies Around Evolving Consumer Journeys:
  Delivery (DoorDash, etc.), CRM, influencer, and commerce are converging, and knowing where a prospect begins and converts is essential.
• Tactical vs. Strategic Targeting:

  “Understand your customer for real, not just by media type.” — Mike (22:45) “That’s dead.” — Dave (22:53)

Practical Advice and Memorable Moments

• Punctuality as Success Factor:
  Dave’s advice for young marketers is simple: be on time—punctuality is within your control and demonstrates respect.

  “The most important thing in our business is still being on time.” — Dave (23:35)

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• "If you look across a majority of our clients, it’s a big part...the ultra wealthy have covered up some of the problem of the top 1 or 2%.” — Dave (02:16)
• “When the consumer becomes finicky and it can lose consumer confidence, you then start losing advertiser confidence.” — Dave (04:19)
• “If I’m running an advertising company, that’s a pretty tough...called F Curve. Called it, Mike.” — Dave (08:21)
• “Don’t spend all your 26 bonus in 27 because it might not be so good.” — Mike (08:51)
• “A bunch of big players is good versus one or two big players by themselves.” — Mike (12:25)
• "Sports is as AI proof as it gets." — Dave (14:06)
• "If you destroy the fact that sports is...if you make sports fixed, that’s the killing of the goose..." — Mike (18:59)
• "Make sure you’re able to understand who your customers are, who your prospects are, and the most efficient way to reach both.” — Dave (21:23)
• “The most important thing in our business is still being on time.” — Dave (23:35)

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Key Timestamps

• 02:16: The K economy and its implications for client businesses.
• 04:19: Discussion on consumer and advertiser confidence linkages.
• 08:21: The "F Curve" and media market concerns for 2027.
• 11:36: Streaming consolidation and competitive dynamics.
• 14:06: The enduring value of live sports for media and advertising.
• 15:39: Frustrations and opportunities in sports content navigation.
• 18:59: The perils and regulatory needs of gambling.
• 21:23: Strategic advice for CMOs: customer identity and journey understanding.
• 23:35: Dave’s advice on punctuality for industry success.

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a candid, big-picture discussion on the collision of economics, technology, and media, offering actionable insights for anyone steering brands, marketing budgets, or media partnerships in 2026 and beyond. The conversation is lively, honest, and filled with practical wisdom from two seasoned marketing leaders.

Transcript

[A]

The CMO Confidential Podcast is a proud member of the I Hear Everything Podcast Network. Looking to launch or scale your podcast, I Hear Everything delivers podcast production, growth and monetization solutions that transform your words into profit. Ready to give your brand a voice? Then visit iheareverything.com welcome to CMO Confidential,

[B]

the podcast that takes you inside the drama, decisions and choices that go with being the head of marketing. Hosted by five time CMO Mike Linton.

[C]

When is the last time you researched something on a website? If you're like most people, AI did that work for you. And that raises a question. If AI is doing the work, what is your website really for? This behavioral shift means AI bots are becoming your most important new visitors. A challenge our sponsor Scrunch is taking head on. Scrunch is the customer experience platform that helps you understand how AI agents experience your site, when and why they show up, and what's blocking them from being retrieved, trusted or recommended. Scrunch shows you the content and citation gaps and technical blockers and helps you fix them so your brand shows up when consumers start with AI because your most important site visitor might not be a human. For our listeners, Scrunch is providing a free website audit that uncovers how AI sees your site and how you're showing up in AI versus the competition. Run your site through [e-mail] CMO welcome

[A]

back to part two of our conversation with Dave Penske.

[C]

Hey, I want to shift topics because I mentioned earlier in one of our chats that you are, you know, you, you are almost like an economist in that you get to talk to so many companies and verticals and you mentioned that many clients are seeing what, what you referred to as the hollowing out of the middle class. Can you talk about what that means and how that affects business?

[A]

So I'm not the first person about the K economy, I guess that was. And I do think that we're looking at a very challenging situation in this ability to not just the middle class, but a number of our clients that focus on lower income and lower middle class families as part of their business. If you look across a majority of our clients, it's a big part and there's a number of our clients that have more on the higher end. Some of those, the ultra wealthy have covered up some of the problem of the top 1 or 2%.

[C]

Just for our listeners, the K curve is the high edge of the economic, the higher earners, higher income, buy a lot of stuff and that makes up for the gap of the middle Folks, and that's the K economy, which you say what you want about it. That's what people call it.

[A]

Yeah. So I think that is a significant issue and it's not going away anytime soon. I don't want to get into a political philosophy conversation here, but certainly I'm not going to speak about. But there is a. Our current focus with our country right now is going to be very challenging. And we can tell people that there's no inflation, but people go to the store and buy stuff. It's not like a genius. Gas prices are in good shape, but sort of.

[C]

And then a lot of other places are not. I mean, there's just so much.

[A]

There's a real inflation here. And at the same time, you know, there are. Our clients are being squeezed. You know, if you're a CPG by on the retail side who have their own challenges on the retail media side, on the tariffs on commodity pricing, all of those things have gone into a higher price for the consumer. And as a higher price for the consumer, this is a challenge for our clients across the board and especially when you are focusing on the lower half of that segment. And that is something that I wish I had a solution for it as an economist, I see it. I don't have a solution for it from a government standpoint, but this is going to continue to be an issue. And I'm not as focused on the stock market. It doesn't affect our clients as much. The one number that probably affects our clients most is corporate profits. The corporate profits haven't really fallen yet. So generally what falls in line with corporate profits is advertising spend that hasn't really fallen. So it's a okay market from advertising perspective, but from a consumer perspective. And when the consumer becomes finicky and it can lose consumer confidence, you then start losing advertiser confidence. It's a bit of a certain.

[C]

Yeah. And if the K curve doesn't work, if the high end of the K curve doesn't work.

[A]

Yeah. But even the high end of the K curve, it doesn't work across a number of categories. I think one of the things is when you get into the verticals, the K curve only serves certain verticals. Yeah. And even, you know, I always think of you with insurance. Mike, I'm sorry, but you can only charge.

[C]

I like insurance.

[A]

You can think of me.

[C]

That's Best Buy.

[A]

Yeah. You can only charge so much at the high end, and you still have consumers on the low end that can't afford it, so they'll drop it. And those Types of things and the rising, the other part is rising health insurance costs and how the country is dealing with it. I think that that's probably one of the key things that hopefully gets solved before the midterms is, you know, if we, if you keep spending more money in health insurance, that's less money going into the consumer market. And that is a challenging situation where, you know, if people drop health insurance, it causes a different public health issue. But those, those are things that, that, that I wouldn't say keep me awake at night, but certainly make me mind race a little bit is you start looking at it. And as I would say, this is as uncertain a year as we've had kind of going into it. Again, the disappearing up front is regards to. We have a lot of meetings coming with clients, and we have it. The one kind of other interesting factor in the marketplace right now is you have this massive amount of money that was spent in the previous upfront on both Olympics and on the World Cup. And will those dollars return or will all those dollars, let's say two and a half billion of those dollars, will those dollars return or those tolerances go straight to the bottom line on the advertiser side at the moment? If I'm betting, I'm betting a lot of those dollars go to the bottom

[C]

line because I would bet with you, if the K curve becomes an F curve, you'll have no choice but to move them.

[A]

And so that's another piece right now where I think you're seeing some. So when you look at the marketplace, the if I look at, you know, why some of our partners are doing well is if you're, if you're in local, if you're in audio, if you're in outdoor, if you're in local tv, you know, you are going to have a good year in 26 because of a midterm election, which will help your numbers. So you can probably buy yourself some time and some of that money will float up into national advertising and certainly with a lot of connected television and ability to buy, that will help. So that will kind of COVID up a bit of this problem in 26. But as you get into the even in January, November, December, January 26 into 27, when the political money is really going to be a long ways away from happening again, if a whole year of no politicals, no politicals, no Olympics, no World cup, that's a pretty tough. If I'm running an advertising company that's a pretty tough. Called F Curve. Called it, Mike.

[C]

Yeah. Well, I just made it into a fail curve.

[A]

Okay, yeah, I understood that. So I would say that that is a very bleak outlook into 27. If you're missing all of those things, those dollars don't come back. And I think there's a reality to. If the midterms don't get helpful and some decisions aren't made by our government to help one way or the other. This is both sides of the aisle. Could do better here as we know.

[C]

Here's the advice. Don't spend all your 26 bonus in 27 because it might not be so good.

[A]

I think that's a problem. I wasn't gonna put that clearly, but that might be a. That might be an accurate way to put it. Mike.

[C]

Not financial advice from CMO Confidential, but just. Just a topic to service to our listeners.

[A]

I do think that is as I look forward into this upfront in this season of. We try to look ahead a bit. 27 looks like a. A tough year in the market without the. Those of these other factors which have been positive. I mean that was an incredible Olympics. I mean I will tell you.

[C]

Oh yeah.

[A]

I wasn't sure how they would do. They had such. I thought NBC did so well and then I thought Milan, which was a terrible time zone for them. And just like Paris without people. No one was working during Paris in the middle of summer and people were off and you had kids off. I don't think it hurt that they snowed all of us into northeast for two weeks. You couldn't leave the house. Maybe that. Maybe that was

[C]

power can do to the weather.

[A]

Maybe NBC did a great job getting us onto some freezing cold weather. I couldn't leave my house for 10 days. But I do think for an 8am hockey game. I don't know anybody didn't watch the game and I don't know if this is true, but I heard the other day that it was the most watched morning event of all time. Which I have a. Probably accurate. I don't know who else is better than that. Think that was a nice thing to bring our country together. And I'm hoping that we have some more positivity like that. But I don't always feel that. And I thought they did a wonderful job on the Olympics in general. I thought the. Both the. The. The women and men's hockey teams winning was just absolutely fantastic. And I hope that we get more of that. But the challenge is in 27 none of that exists.

[C]

No Olympics. There's no Olympics.

[A]

And I actually. I think the World cup should be great. You know, I think the amount of Americans are actually very excited for the World cup is good and we'll see how that pans out. But I, I feel very confident in, in the World cup and I think we'll get better weather than the Olympics and hope so it's in June. I hope we get better weather, but does feel a little bleak at the moment as I'm looking into a frozen Hudson River. I do think that there's a, I'm hoping that again the, the rest 26 positive about it. Again, if I was, if I'm, if I, my, my negative New York hat on 27 looks tough. Looks tough.

[C]

There you go. Hey, I want to flip over to three other topics. Streaming, sports and gambling. Yes, you can take them anywhere you want. Streaming, sports and gambling. Well, you have a cat's eye view of all of it.

[A]

All right, so on, on streaming, the announcement yesterday of, of Paramount purchasing Warner Brothers, I think is, is great. I think that would be a great, you know, real competitor and I think that's a very strong place for it to go. And I actually like that the whole thing's moving with CNN and you're going to have a whole ability to have this other very large competitor in there. So I think that is, it's a much better place for Warner Brothers. I think it's a, I think it's great. And, and I think Netflix being separate is, is, is, is probably better for our ecosystem. So I am, I was actually just happy to see that. I guess they're both minor, both of them are clients of mine, so be careful with that.

[C]

But, but, but what you're saying is a bunch of big players is good versus one or two big players by themselves.

[A]

Yes. And I think that the ability to bring those two companies together, I think it's going to be a strong fit. I really think it's going good situation. So on streaming, you know, it's interesting, you know, if you go back, I'm picking 2004, but you know, you had basically six providers of most of the content and we have six providers of most of the content back again. And some of them have the same names like, like NBCU and Disney and some of them are new where you have, you know, now would be a Paramount, a Google, an Amazon, a Netflix. But again, you're about six people controlling and that was the same thing was true 20 years ago. So I don't think we want to, I think it's a good way for advertisers to have choices. I think it's Good for us to negotiate with a lot of different people. I think it will provide enough supply and I think that with what's happening now, the one piece falling out of this has been cable, where the numbers really are, you know, scraping the bottom. The, the, the streamers have moved most of that content and the new content's being produced on streaming with the cable basically being some, some reruns and some other things which is, you know, kind of, that's probably the biggest difference. But you know, you know, 20 years

[C]

we're not having consolidation like we did in a county like. So you didn't, you didn't go down from the, you know, I feel, I

[A]

feel, I feel very good about rear streaming on.

[C]

How about sports and gambling?

[A]

Sports is as AI proof as it gets. So I think as we continue to see this, and I can't say enough positive things about both the college football and the NFL playoffs were some of the best. I mean it was must see tv. So I feel very good about the sports landscape. We are big believers in sports going forward. No one wants to watch tape, tape delayed sports. So the ability to, to get live viewers and you know, I think probably the only thing I will say negative on sports is I think we got to get the nil stuff cleaned up so that we have a more organized NCAA sports opportunity. And I think that, you know, Amazon coming into this and they're, they're bidding up of course is good for the leagues, it's good for us. They're a very good provider of content. I have no issue with it. They've done an incredible job with both the, the Thursday football games and now with basketball. The one thing that I would say on sports, which is unfortunate, we will see how the numbers pan out this year is because of the providers, whether that be the Samsung's, the LG's, the Roku's, the world. It is hard at the moment. I think YouTube TV probably does the best job of hey, if I'm watching the Knicks on MSG and I want to flip to Amazon to watch the, the Nuggets play that and, or it's challenging, I have to go out of

[C]

the app and in the other.

[A]

So I think if I was, if I as a consumer and probably as an advertiser, if I could fix one thing on sports, the ability for us to go back and forth, I mean the amount of times that I'm watching my local basketball game, I used to go watch Kenny, Shaq and Charles at halftime and then go watch a little bit of that Game go back and forth. It is a cumbersome, annoying experience at the moment. And you know, I think the manufacturers would say it's the app guys that want the apps up. They don't want to leave the apps because you leave the apps, you're losing the customer. But I do think there needs to be some type of, of coming together on this exact issue if we want, if we want that to work. Because I think it's going to be a very hard. It's if you get, if you get all the viewership of the past, if you don't fix this issue. And as more and more sports go to the streamers and they think about how you watch college football, how you watch college basketball and if you gotta go in and out of four different apps trying to find stuff, it's a pain.

[C]

So I think, yeah, in the end someone will solve this.

[B]

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[A]

Now back to our discussion with Dave Penske. So this will get solved and this will be a, this to me is going to be a manufacturer or others. Google TV Pie again does the best job of this. The ability back and forth is. We need it. I mean if you think about it, even in the NFL, you got, you know, you got, the Netflix has got a game, you got, everyone's got a

[C]

game, everyone's got a game.

[A]

And trying to find, to go back and forth is, it's frustrating. It's very frustrating. And you don't want that consumer experience to be frustrated.

[C]

And let's go, let's go to the last gambling.

[A]

All right, so I'm not sure your exact gambling question. I like gambling. I don't bet on sports very much, but I, I am a gambler, I'm a poker player. I, I think the gambling aspect is a challenge. We don't have a gambling company as a client at the moment. So I'm not speaking from a client perspective. I think that gambling has brought interest into sports, but I, I don't know if it's, it's always been in the, the most positive light and I think if we've now had three or four of these things where players are getting paid. So I think there needs to be greater regulation around the gambling issue. You know, I don't think.

[C]

Because if you destroy, if you destroy the fact that sports is, if you make sports fixed, you that's the killing of the goose over.

[A]

So I am hoping on NAL and on this, like I don't think, I don't know why I'm going to pick on this school. But like I don't think you should be able to bet $25,000 on a Saint Bonaventure game. So I think that there needs to be some regulation on this. And, and so my worry is that people are betting on these. You know, if you have a, effectively a, the idea that the highest NAL player is $5,000 for the year, you shouldn't be able to bet more than that on a game because the ability and then the latest one is got these 25, 30 players that were playing these mid major markets not making much in NAL and someone offers them $25,000 to fix a game. You know, I'm not, I'm not really blaming the kid here. I wish I could say that, you know, this is how you shouldn't do this and obviously you shouldn't do this. And that's why I think that if, if we get the NAL fix where it's clean, clearer and cleaner and understandable. And you know, I think that, you know, I, I was, you know, really happy with how competitive all the games were pretty much in the playoffs. But you're starting to see this. You know, I don't think the LA Dodgers winning, winning, winning the World Series for the next 20 years is good. And I don't think you want to end up with four college teams. I think what makes college always interesting is the ability that especially in the NCAA tournament, you saw a lot less upsets last year. And I do get nervous that you're going to end up with the. Just like you have the AI winners and losers, the nil winners and losers and you know, whoever has the richest Dr.

[C]

Drama, it's the drama that makes it work. And if you beat the drama out of it, whether it's through like fixing games or just know the Dodgers are going to win. The drama, drama disappears, the audience may go.

[A]

So I feel could not agree more of that statement. So that's probably one thing I'm, I'm very, very bullish on sports. I'm not as bullish on gambling.

[C]

Hey, so what should you talk with CMOs all over the country?

[A]

Yes.

[C]

You know, and companies and everything. What should people be working on now for implementation in 2027?

[A]

Well, I think that a few things. I think one, you want to make sure that you're able to understand who your customers are, who your prospects are, and the most efficient way to reach both of those groups. And I think that we believe it's an identity solution. But we, however you do that, I think that's very important to understand how consumers are moving through. It's a very connected ecosystem across that paid media CRM on influencer and commerce. How is that, that journey happening now? And that journey has changed even from a couple of years ago. If you think about it. Pre Covid, if you're a qsr, there was almost no delivery. You now have a huge ability to reach a much younger consumer in delivery, which you couldn't. So there's a lot. There's some real positives to like a doordash that's now bringing a much younger consumer to, to a QSR which might have a much older base. On the other side now is that that delivery comes in. Is that separating that customer from the. The. From that customer from the end user. So we said that that customer from the qsr. So all of those types of things. I think understanding who your customer is is more important. Who your prospect is and what it takes to convert them. That's probably the most important thing to figure out.

[C]

And this is a really big strategic point I think you're making, which is understand your customer for real, not just by media type.

[A]

Yeah, that's. That's dead.

[C]

Yes. So this. I know we're at time, but we could talk with you a long time. So this brings us to our traditional last question, practical advice and or funniest story you would like to share with our listeners. You can take either topic or both, but you must take at least one.

[A]

Oh my God, that's a good one. I, I forgot. I did see this in the note and I forgot this once. I was thinking. I'm trying to think of. All right, so I, I will, I will. I'm trying to have a funny story that I could tell on this that wouldn't be embarrassing.

[C]

There's probably hundreds you can't tell.

[A]

So I'm going to pass on that one. And I, I will get, I'll do an advice when I so I have a group of people that I mentor and I still think this is advice that I will give to people that is, you know, absolutely true. The most important thing in our business is still being on time. And it's shocking how many of our young people are not on time the meetings. And so I will say that if I had one piece of advice when asked me this, I said a few things. I said on time is probably still the most important thing is the one thing you can control most of the time. And so I give one person a piece of advice that's, that's what I would give them.

[C]

I agree. Punctuality matters and it sends a signal that whoever you're meeting with that that person is important. So thank you, Dave for being as

[A]

I, as I am four minutes late to my meeting right now, so I can't wait. But as I just said that but ye. That is my point.

[C]

All right, I will finish up.

[A]

Thanks.

[C]

We'll have you back. Thanks for listening to See Confidential New shows drop every Tuesday and you can find our tired catalog of our 160 shows on Spotify, Apple and YouTube, which include Colonel Mustard in the study with the job spec. How poor design shortens CMO lifespans. A top venture capitalist analyzes the AI landscape. And Dave's first show, which ran in late 2023, a media maven discusses the marketplace, media and CMOs. Hey, all you marketers, stay safe out there. This is Mike Linton signing off for CMO Confidential. When is the last time you researched something on a website? If you're like most people, AI did that work for you. And that raises a question. If AI is doing the work, what is your website really for? This behavioral shift means AI bots are becoming your most important new visitors. A challenge our sponsor, Scrunch, is taking head on. Scrunch is the customer experience platform that helps you understand how AI agents experience your site, when and why they show up, and what's blocking them from being retrieved, trusted or recommended. Scrunch shows you the content and citation gaps and technical blockers and helps you fix them so your brand shows up when consumers start with AI. Because your most important site visitor might not be a human. For our listeners, Scrunch is providing a free website audit that uncovers how AI sees your site and how you're showing up in AI versus the competition. Run your site through [e-mail] CMO.