CMO Confidential with Dr. Joel Shapiro, Kellogg School

Episode: What an NFL Injury Analysis Can Teach Business About Resilience

Host: Mike Linton
Date: December 9, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Mike Linton speaks with Dr. Joel Shapiro, a professor at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Business and expert in data analytics, about the parallels between predicting NFL injuries and building business resilience. Using his recent work on NFL injury prediction, Dr. Shapiro explains how organizations can learn to anticipate setbacks, deploy resources more effectively, and develop true resilience—not just in sports, but at every level of business.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Dr. Shapiro’s Background & Approach to Data Science

• Dr. Shapiro’s work centers on teaching organizations how to use data science, analytics, and AI to make better decisions and investments across industries.

  • “I basically teach organizations how to be successful with data and AI…with a keen focus on how to make smart investments in those kinds of people and tools and systems to get good business results.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (01:41)

• Shifted from public policy to business due to the immediacy and real-world impact available in the corporate sector.

  • “Business moves. It moves fast…working in business keeps me moving fast and makes sure that my work is good and timely and really has some real effect.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (02:27)

Predicting NFL Injuries: Methodology, Surprises, and Metrics

• Predicting injury in pro sports is often considered a failed use case, yet Dr. Shapiro argues otherwise, citing his work building predictive models for injury.

  • “We can find risk factors that just aren’t otherwise obvious…The data tells us stories that our human mind simply can’t see because the data is too complex.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (04:14)

• NFL chosen as a case study due to its clean, comprehensive injury data based on strict reporting protocols (07:00).

• The model aggregates extensive data (player history, training, college, turf type) and predicts the number of games each player is likely to miss due to injury in the upcoming season.

  • “It’s a person specific: how many games are you likely to miss in the upcoming season? That’s really the output.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (09:16)

• Introduction of the “Percent Cash Wasted” metric: calculates what percent of payroll is spent on injured players.

  • “Some people don’t like the word ‘wasted.’ But when I started to get pushback, I’m like, oh, I’m onto something…” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (09:42)

• Key finding: Higher “cash wasted” does correlate with worse performance, but the relationship is flatter than expected—teams can lose more salary to injury than expected before performance drops sharply.

  • “If you get really injured, it doesn’t impact winning as much as you might think…the average NFL team wastes about 10% of their payroll…” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (10:40)

What Truly Drives Resilience: The “Backup Effect” and Leadership

• By examining teams that went from healthy/good to injured, the data revealed a split:

  • ~25% remained good, 10% declined a bit, and 65% “completely tanked” (13:57).

• Critical insight: The only consistent predictor of collapse was losing a highly paid (start) quarterback—no team survived this intact.

  • “If you have a highly paid quarterback and the quarterback gets badly injured, you are going to tank. No team has been able to withstand the loss…” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (14:42)

• Backups matter: Having a good second-string (in business terms, depth in talent and resources) increases organizational resilience.

  • “In the NFL, backups matter. Having a good backup plan matters. The translation to business teams, I think, sort of speaks for itself.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (17:24)

Translating Lessons from the NFL to Business Resilience

• Predictive analytics can help, but many “bad events” in business are hard to avoid. Companies should focus on resource deployment and contingency planning, not just prediction.

  • “In football, it’s about the people. In business…it’s about the business processes.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (20:08)

• Resilience is not just “bouncing back” by force of will, but purposeful strategy: build systems and teams capable of withstanding and adapting to shocks.

  • “Resilience needs to be thought of really as a strategy unto itself…you want to be able to stay aggressive, seize opportunities, grow when others can’t.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (22:22)

• Testing for resilience means identifying real risks, measuring likely impact, and planning for recovery or adaptation—using a blend of data, experience, and ongoing learning.

Applying Data and Predictive Models as a CMO

• Use data to identify organization-specific threats and pain points; don’t rely solely on gut feeling or superficial risk assessments.
• Invest in depth—“backups”—not just stars.
• Treat resilience as core strategy, not just “back office” insurance.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Predictive Modeling in the NFL:

  • “What it does is it says for any given person, it tells us how many games they are likely to miss in the next season.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (09:16)

• On Impact of Losing a Star Player:

  • “No team has been able to withstand the loss of a highly paid quarterback and still have a good season.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (14:42)

• On the Essence of True Resilience:

  • “When people talk about resilience, what they typically mean is that when things go bad, you fight your way through it…And I think that sort of undersells the concept of purposeful resilience.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (15:43)
  • “Resilience needs to be thought of really as a strategy unto itself…when things go bad, you want to be able to stay aggressive, seize opportunities, grow when others can’t.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (22:22)

• On Predictive Models in Student Projects:

  • “I had three teams, three different student teams working on it, and every single one of them beat Vegas pretty handily with their machine learning models to predict who is going to make the NHL playoffs.” – Dr. Joel Shapiro (28:17)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Time | Segment / Topic | |:----------:|:--------------------------------------------------------| | 01:30 | Dr. Shapiro’s background and teaching philosophy | | 04:14 | Why NFL injury prediction was tackled, failed use case | | 07:00 | Details on NFL data, model construction | | 08:08 | Output of model and explanation of “percent cash wasted” | | 09:42 | Correlation of injuries and team success | | 13:37 | Can badly hurt teams still win? Chiefs case study | | 14:42 | Loss of starting quarterback — resilience threshold | | 17:24 | Importance of backups/backups in business teams | | 20:08 | Adapting NFL lessons to business resilience | | 22:22 | Treating resilience as an offensive, not defensive, strategy | | 28:17 | Student teams beat Vegas with predictive models |

Practical Takeaways for CMOs and Business Leaders

• Start with Business Problems: Don’t apply data and AI for their own sake—anchor efforts in tangible business problems.
• Backups Matter: Build strong teams with depth; don’t rely exclusively on a few stars.
• Purposeful Resilience: Make resilience a strategic priority, not just a contingency plan.
• Identify and Quantify Risks: Use data to actively surface and size up real threats—don’t assume past is prologue.
• Plan for Shocks: Have scenario plans for key personnel turnover, supply chain disruptions, market shifts, and other critical vulnerabilities.

Memorable Moment

• Dr. Shapiro’s pride in his students: “Every single one of them beat Vegas pretty handily…had they placed bets, they would have beat Vegas pretty handy. They could have almost paid tuition!” (28:17)

Tone and Style

Throughout the episode, both Linton and Shapiro maintain an approachable, engaging, and slightly humorous style, mixing serious data insights with NFL banter and practical advice, making this a memorable and accessible exploration of “resilience by the numbers.”