Fast Money – Episode Summary

Podcast: CNBC's Fast Money
Episode: "AI & Metals Fever Breaking?... And Top Tech Picks For The New Year"
Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee), with traders Steve Grasso, Bono(n) Ison, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan
Notable Guest: Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities

Overview

This episode dives into whether the explosive rallies in both AI-linked stocks and precious metals like gold and silver are starting to cool off. The traders debate what’s behind the sharp reversals in metals, implications for tech investing in 2026, the evolving risk profile of China tech names, dollar stores’ surges, and General Motors’ breakout year. Dan Ives joins to reveal his top tech picks for the new year—and notably, which prominent name he left off the list.

Metals Meltdown: Margin Calls and Panic Buying

[01:02 - 15:29]

Key Discussion Points

• Silver and Gold's Sharp Drop: Silver dropped nearly 9% in one day after reaching record highs, while gold fell 4.5%.
• Driving Factors:
  • Raised margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange triggered forced selling.
  • A flood of $75 call options in silver being exercised led to sharp market movements.
  • Technical “engulfing pattern” (higher high, lower low, closed lower) signals possible further downside short-term.
• Market Psychology:
  • The panel debated whether the recent moves were panic buying or investor repositioning.
  • “It more feels like you’re seeing the money that’s chasing this sort of trade just kind of move from one thing to the next.” – Dan Nathan [06:18]
• Industrial Demand vs. Safe Haven:
  • Silver’s price surge partly linked to industrial demand (including AI/data center buildout).
  • Gold’s rise credited more to central bank buying and de-dollarization, less to retail action.

Notable Quotes

• Guy Adami: “When you see prices move of that magnitude to the upside, you will see margin requirements raised by these exchanges. ... I think this is just a pause to a larger move higher.” [03:02]
• Steve Grasso: “Historically, the 10 to 25 biggest up days are followed with a 20% drawdown. ... These things have run so far so fast. I still believe upside is there.” [04:09]
• Bono(n) Ison: “The day-to-day volatility ... reminds me of what we’ve seen previously in some of the Snowflakes or Cloudflares. That type of price action is concerning. I would wait for volatility to die down.” [05:15]
• Dan Nathan: “When you talk about the fever breaking... it feels like to some degree people have taken their foot off the pedal and started to look around for other things that are moving.” [06:18]
• Guy Adami: “Central banks have been hoarding (gold) in ways we have never seen before—they are playing with de-dollarization and finding their way into gold.” [08:03]

Chart Analysis

• Carter Worth (Chartmaster) [12:22]:
  • Silver’s extreme move vs gold is among the most excessive since the ‘70s; the gold/silver ratio snapped from 107:1 to 55:1 and back towards a long-term average of 60.
  • “Every time this extreme has occurred, silver has underperformed gold 3, 6, 9, 12 months later... except once. ... The bet here is: sell silver outright, or short silver/long gold.” [14:00]

China Tech: Alibaba's Slide and Geopolitical Risks

[15:29 - 20:13]

Key Discussion Points

• Alibaba and China Stocks:
  • Alibaba dropped 2.5%. China’s industrial profits posted double-digit declines.
  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions with Taiwan heighten investor uncertainty.
• Valuation vs. Risk:
  • Panellists agree Alibaba looks cheap based on fundamentals, but uncertainty about leadership, the economy, and foreign policy discourage confidence.
  • “With all that said ... all these China stocks seemingly topped out in the fall” – Guy Adami [16:13]

Notable Quotes

• Dan Nathan: “We know the economy’s weak...They have this deflationary problem, we have an inflationary problem. ... I think the Chinese are acting like they won the trade war.” [17:16]
• Bonnie Glick: “From a technical standpoint ... it starts to look interesting. ... But I think it’s kind of a show me rather than tell me situation—until you see follow-through, you’ll probably wait to re-enter.” [19:19]

Dollar Stores in Focus: Dollar General & Dollar Tree

[22:16 - 25:49]

Key Discussion Points

• Dollar General Hits Highs:
  • Stock up 80% YTD, best performance since IPO 2009.
  • Technical support and earnings surprises have driven analysts to re-rate the stock.
  • Dollar stores benefit from “trade-down” effect during economic uncertainty and tariff impacts.
• K-Shaped Recovery:
  • “If we thread the needle and have this Goldilocks scenario, will the momentum behind this name continue? That would be the one thing that concerns me here.” – Bonnie Glick [24:05]

Notable Quotes

• Steve Grasso: “They sell, 80% of their products are staples...Essentials, and they’re cheap essentials. In this day and age where tariffs made everything else more expensive, they really usher more consumers in.” [23:16]
• Dan Nathan: “As unemployment goes higher...demand for these sorts of items should buoy these stocks.” [25:49]

Autos: GM’s Rebound & Supplier Picks

[27:12 - 30:49]

Key Discussion Points

• GM’s Best Year Since Bankruptcy (2009):
  • Up 56%, outperforming Ford, Toyota, Tesla.
  • Market reacting to U.S. policy shifts back toward internal combustion engines (ICE) and relaxed EV mandates.
• Auto Parts Plays:
  • Guy Adami spotlights BorgWarner (BWA) as an auto parts name with technical upside if it breaks key resistance [28:27].
• EVs and Software:
  • Discussion on Rivian and Tesla highlights growing focus on autonomy, not just EV hardware.

Notable Quotes

• Steve Grasso: “They chose ICE over EVs. The trade may stall, but ultimately, it goes higher.” [27:49]
• Dan Nathan: “Rivian...they make good cars. … We've been talking about full self-driving for a while. Elon has shifted towards autonomous rideshare.” [30:24]

AI & Big Tech: 2026 Picks with Dan Ives

[31:50 - 38:55]

Key Discussion Points

• Tech Weakness into Year-End:
  • Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla all underperforming S&P 500 YTD.
  • Evidence the tech rally may broaden out as “market fever” cools.
• Dan Ives’ Top Tech Picks for 2026 (Wedbush):
  • Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Palantir, CrowdStrike
  • Notably Nvidia is not on his very top-5 list (but still in his broader “Ives top 30”).
• Rationale:
  • Bullish on “second, third, fourth derivatives” of the AI revolution beyond just Nvidia.
  • Robotics, autonomy, and cybersecurity are key themes.
• Specific Name Highlight
  • Serve Robotics (SURF): A robotics company “off the radar” but poised to benefit from autonomous delivery trends [35:42].

Notable Quotes

• Dan Nathan: “It could be bullish that you’re seeing a broadening out away from some of these names that have been huge contributors to S&P 500 growth.” [32:26]
• Dan Ives: “To me... there’s only one godfather of AI, Jensen [Huang]. But the derivatives, the second, third, fourth [waves] are just starting.” [33:52]
• Dan Ives on Palantir: “Super expensive stock today. ... I think it’s a trillion dollar valuation in the next two or three years as the AI revolution plays out.” [34:46]
• Dan Ives on Oracle: “I think [investors] are wrong to call out the RPO as fluff ... I think 80 to 90% gets done. ... $78 upside, $15 downside risk/reward.” [37:27]
• Bonnie Glick: “The case for Oracle is a little bit tougher for me, but I can see scenario ... where you say ‘that really would have been an awesome opportunity…’.” [37:46]

Housing Market: Rising Sales, Dropping Builder Stocks

[38:55 - 42:22]

Key Discussion Points

• Surprise Jump in Pending Sales:
  • Pending home sales at a three-year high, indicating future existing home sales may rebound.
• Homebuilder Stocks Lag:
  • Builders like Lennar, Pulte, and DR Horton underperform, despite positive demand signals.
• Mortgage Rates Still Too High:
  • Investors waiting for rates below 5.5% to unleash new demand; higher unemployment might be a bigger threat than rates.

Notable Quotes

• Steve Grasso: “You need mortgage rates to come below 5.5%. We still have a ways to go there... I’d still be a buyer of the homebuilders here. Rates will benefit.” [40:56]
• Guy Adami: “It’s about the unemployment rate and that’s the deal ... If the unemployment rate continues to tick higher, homebuilders continue to tick lower.” [41:35]

Netflix: Long December

[42:34 - 44:17]

Key Discussion Points

• Netflix Lags:
  • Stock down 8% since WBD (Warner Bros Discovery) bid news; only up ~5% YTD.
  • Panel sees Netflix and Spotify both as “mature compounders” lacking near-term catalysts, but interesting if they decline further.
• Opportunity in Weakness:
  • “If Netflix does not get Warner, I think you buy it with two hands.” – Dan Nathan [43:47]

Final Trades

[44:34 - 45:23]

1. Steve Grasso: Serve Robotics (SURF) – Robotics play, presenting at CES. [44:34]
2. Bonnie Glick: Vertiv Holdings (VRT) – AI infrastructure, with Softbank’s moves providing sentiment signal. [44:46]
3. Dan Nathan: Spotify/Netflix – Both starting to look interesting at these prices. [45:10]
4. Guy Adami: ExxonMobil – Holding up even as oil goes down. [45:13]

Memorable Moments & Best Quotes

• Dan Ives on AI Investing: “There’s only one godfather of AI—Jensen [Huang, Nvidia CEO]. But the derivatives, the second, third, fourth [waves]—just starting.” [33:52]
• Guy Adami on Gold: “Central banks have been hoarding in ways we have never seen before—they are playing with de-dollarization.” [08:03]
• Panel on Dollar Stores: “For the year, one’s Barry Bonds, one Sammy Sosa. Ultimately, only one can win.” – Brian Sullivan [24:36]
• On Homebuilder Pain: “You bought your house during the Carter administration?” – Steve Grasso (to Brian Sullivan’s comic 14% mortgage rate) [41:04]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Metals meltdown (margin calls, psychology): 01:02 – 15:29
• China/Alibaba/geopolitical risks: 15:29 – 20:13
• Dollar General & retail trade-down: 22:16 – 25:49
• GM, autos, BorgWarner discussion: 27:12 – 30:49
• Tech/A.I./Dan Ives interview: 31:50 – 38:55
• Housing market/homebuilders: 38:55 – 42:22
• Netflix/streaming: 42:34 – 44:17
• Final trades: 44:34 – 45:23

Tone

The episode is brisk, insightful, and laced with trademark Wall Street banter. The roundtable balances technical and fundamental analysis while weaving in wit (and a few sports jokes). Dan Ives brings bullish excitement on AI, while the rest of the desk offers a slightly more cautious, seasoned perspective on trades ranging from precious metals to China tech.

This summary captures all actionable discussion, memorable moments, and top soundbites—perfect for those who missed the show or need a refresher for investment decisions as 2026 kicks off.