CNBC "Fast Money"

Episode Summary:

Big Year For Banks… And What’s In Store For AI & VC In 2026
Aired December 30, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Panelists: Steve Grasso, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Special Guests: Shahzad Kazi (China Beige Book), Laura Rippey (Alumni Ventures), Kate Rogers (CNBC)

Episode Overview

This Fast Money episode is a year-end power roundtable reflecting on major market moves in 2025 and looking ahead to 2026. Key topics include the outperformance of big banks, the AI funding boom and possible risks, US-China geopolitical tensions and their impact on markets, energy stocks' resilience, trends in venture capital, emerging tech, robotics, and shifts in the restaurant sector. The tone is lively, energetic, and often sharply opinionated, as the team blends actionable takes, forecasts, and a brass-tacks investor focus.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Big Banks' Banner Year & Outlook

• Bank Stocks’ Leadership:

  • Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and especially Citigroup saw massive gains, with Citi up more than 60% ("its best performance since the turn of the century" – [01:01]).
  • Outperformance even compared to many AI names.

• Drivers Behind the Run:

  • Effective leadership (Jane Fraser at Citigroup praised for shrinking to grow smartly).
  • Restructuring, focus on asset & wealth management, efficiency gains from new technology including AI.
  • Current strong economy, manageable credit quality, robust capital markets, and regulatory clarity.

• Panel Forecasts for 2026:

  • Guy Adami: Citi remains undervalued; sees potential upside to $148 if it continues on its current path ("I think there’s still a lot of room to the upside here." – Guy, [02:54]).
  • Karen Feinerman: Not selling—banking sector’s efficiency improvements and AI-driven margin boosts excite her: "Just because it’s year’s ending, I’m not going to sell my banks and look for something new." ([04:01])
  • Dan Nathan: Wants to let stocks “breathe” but acknowledges tailwinds (capex, IPO activity, M&A); wary of macro headwinds if economy slows, or if rates drop fast, which could pinch net interest margins ([05:23]).

2. AI, Venture Capital, and Domino Risk

• OpenAI as Market Linchpin:

  • Dan Nathan predicts a big AI company (hinted as OpenAI) may “blow up”—not to zero, but stumble—impacting both the tech sector and banks exposed through lending and IPOs ([06:18]).
  • Host (Brian Sullivan) agrees. “If, if that company OpenAI were to stumble at all, I think, I think the markets writ large go down 10, 15%.” ([10:35])

• Venture Capital’s Interconnected Risks:

  • AI/data center buildout tied to VC and private credit; banks have “financialized” these deals in ways reminiscent of the lead-up to the housing crisis ([08:28]).
  • The investment ecosystem is heavily concentrated around mega-raises for firms like OpenAI and Space X, possibly at the expense of other innovation.
  • “There’s a whole host of other things that are not working not just in technology, but also in our economy.” — Dan Nathan ([07:12])

• AI’s Efficiency May Hit Employment:

  • Article cited: CEOs planning for 2026 do not prioritize hiring; AI efficiency may push unemployment up toward 5% ([07:12]–[08:00]).

• Private Company Exposure:

  • Collateral risks: If OpenAI/AI slows, impacts will extend to data center construction, tech suppliers like GE Vernova, and private credit funds ([08:59]).

Notable Quotes:

• “It’s getting to a point, I mean JP Morgan, I think Jamie Dimon said it… they’re getting ready to write $10 billion checks for this sort of stuff.” — Dan Nathan ([08:28])
• “If OpenAI stumbles, the market’s in trouble.” — Brian Sullivan ([08:09])

3. China Tensions & Global Markets

• Geopolitical Wild Card:

  • Chinese military maneuvers near Taiwan escalate risk for global markets; could be “catastrophic” ([13:41]).
  • Shahzad Kazi (China Beige Book): Positive on relative Chinese equity performance in ’25, but clouds remain. Stimulus and property market stabilization remain critical. ([12:41])
  • The Xi-Trump summit offers calm in early 2026, but danger potentially returns.

• China’s Economic Signals:

  • Chinese economy “doing just fine” versus a year earlier, per China Beige Book’s December data, despite consensus negativity ([14:20]).
  • “The big one has to be consumer spending. Chinese consumers are going to be very, very cautious unless policy changes…” — Shahzad Kazi ([15:25])

• Yuan & Markets Risk:

  • No major devaluation risk but policymakers are managing currency tightly to avoid disruption ([16:15]).

Notable Quotes:

• “If something were to happen militarily, that would be catastrophic for markets across the world.” — Shahzad Kazi ([13:41])
• “They love relying on the manufacturing sector, keeping the world reliant on them.” — Shahzad Kazi ([15:25])

4. Stock Watch: Nike, Boeing, ExxonMobil (Energy)

• Nike Insider Buying:

  • CEO Elliot Hill buys 16,000 shares (~$1 million). Panel not reading much into it. “I don’t know that that’s a vote of confidence, to be honest.” — Karen Feinerman ([18:08])

• Boeing Bullishness ([21:17]):

  • Boeing lands $8B Air Force contract; Grasso and Feinerman praise free cash flow growth and improved defense/commercial prospects.
  • Target price consensus: $250–275—about 20–35% upside ([24:06]–[24:25]).
  • “Much more upside to Boeing… administration piece through strength, there’s going to be a lot more contracts that are funneling through” — Steve Grasso ([22:08])

• ExxonMobil and Energy Outlook ([26:24]):

  • Exxon hits 52-week high despite flat oil prices; Adami cites improved balance sheet, operational efficiency, lower break-evens (now around $40/barrel).
  • Refiners like Valero, Par Pacific, outperform due to better margins from low input costs. Large integrated names and refiners seen as best energy plays.
  • “I think 26 is a year where these stocks [energy] make a lot of sense.” — Guy Adami ([27:36])

5. Venture Capital & Tech: Trends and Opportunities

Guest: Laura Rippey, Alumni Ventures ([29:33])

• Early-Stage Investing Themes:

  • Focus on seed/Series A rounds, often via alumni networks.
  • “We follow our alumni connections when we can and we bring that to individual accredited investors.” — Laura Rippey ([30:47])
  • Major success with companies like Grok, Oura, Blue Sky, and Impulse Space.

• Private-to-Public Switch Is Slowing:

  • Time to IPO now 12–14 years (was 5–8 in the 2000s), so most VC returns happen privately ([34:19]).
  • “There’s $3.9 trillion of value in unicorns right now… Those are companies ripe to go public.” — Laura Rippey ([34:19])

• Emerging Areas (2026 and beyond):

  • Defense tech and space innovation as major private market opportunities (“defense innovation is enormous”—[32:02]).
  • US badly lags China/Russia/Ukraine in drone production (“We produce like 25,000… They produce 2 million.” — Rippey [33:10]).
  • Companies like Firestorm (edge manufacturing for drones), Impulse Space (next-gen rocketry), and nuclear energy investments (Allo Atomics, Radiant) are fast-rising.

Notable Quotes:

• “Energy is a $38 trillion opportunity. There’ll be many [winners].” — Laura Rippey ([35:42])

6. Robotics: Reality and Hype

• Humanoid Robots & Tesla ([38:13]):
  • Viral demo of Unitree G1 robot; being tested by OpenAI, Nvidia, Amazon.
  • Dan Nathan: “If you’re buying Tesla here, you’ve got to believe in Optimus. This is a big part of the story going forward.”
  • Debate on the real-world readiness of robots—much of it is still remote-controlled; fully autonomous, truly useful humanoids still some distance away.

7. Restaurant Sector: Winners, Losers, and Trends ([41:04])

Guest: Kate Rogers

• 2025 called a “humbling year” for restaurants.
• Big losers: Sweetgreen (-80%), Kava, Chipotle
• Winners: Dutch Bros (+18%), McDonald’s, Yum Brands, Brinker (Chili’s), Domino’s, Papa John’s
• Trends for 2026: More value offers, new menu specials (GLP1-friendly at Chipotle), and a focus on loyalty programs and customer data.

Notable Quotes:

• “If you’re a value menu, we see them moving away from Sweetgreen, where you have to pay 18 bucks for a salad… I do like Darden, I do like Breakers, I like things where you can get a value meal.” — Steve Grasso ([42:26])
• “Is there any money to be made in restaurants at all?” — Brian Sullivan ([43:07])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI Risk:
  "If OpenAI stumbles, the market’s in trouble… if that company OpenAI were to stumble at all, I think, I think the markets writ large go down 10, 15%." — Brian Sullivan ([10:35])
• On Citigroup’s Strategy:
  "Jane Fraser has done a great job… getting bigger in terms of stock valuation by getting smaller—she’s being very targeted, very smart about just ditching businesses she doesn’t need." — Brian Sullivan ([03:38])
• On Drone Deficit:
  "China, Ukraine, Russia all produce 2 million drones a year. Do you know how much we produce?... 25,000. We are behind the curve." — Laura Rippey ([33:10])
• On Nuclear’s Future:
  "Energy is a $38 trillion opportunity. There’ll be many [winners]." — Laura Rippey ([35:42])
• On Robots:
  "If you’re buying Tesla here, you’ve got to believe in Optimus… It’s about Robotaxi and about Optimus." — Dan Nathan ([38:13])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Topic | Speaker(s) | Timestamp | |---|---|---|---| | Opening & Headlines | Recap, tonight’s topics | Brian Sullivan | [01:01] | | Big Banks Review | Citi, MS, GS, outlook | Guy, Karen, Dan | [02:54]–[06:18] | | AI, VC, OpenAI Risks | AI’s systemic role, VC bubble talk | Dan, Brian, Guy, Karen | [06:18]–[11:45] | | China Wild Card | Geopolitics, markets, economy | Shahzad Kazi | [11:52]–[16:35] | | Nike Insider Buy | Reax to CEO purchase | Entire panel | [17:45]–[19:57] | | Boeing & Defense Stocks | New contract, bull case | Steve, Karen, Guy | [21:17]–[24:25] | | Exxon/Energy Trade | Energy stocks, refiners | Guy, Karen, Brian | [26:24]–[28:45] | | Venture Capital Shift | Private/public, sector bets | Laura Rippey | [29:33]–[36:52] | | Robotics | Unitree demo, future | Brian, Dan | [37:15]–[39:42] | | Restaurant Sector | Winners/losers, value menu | Kate Rogers, Steve | [41:04]–[43:07] | | Final Trades | Panel picks | All | [44:10]–[44:59] |

Final Trades

• Steve Grasso: Serve Robotics (double-down from previous night)
• Karen Feinerman: Boeing (“even though it’s up, had a nice year, I still really like it” – [44:33])
• Dan Nathan: Alibaba and related Chinese internet plays (“She’s long the Baba… KWEB is a good place” – [44:44])
• Guy Adami: Halliburton (as part of his OIH/energy trade theme)

Episode Tone

Conversational, humorous, and honest, the crew debates, agrees, and challenges each other’s “big proclamations” for 2026. Each segment is peppered with real-world analogies, quick math on-air, pop culture references (robots, “Ex Machina”), and frank assessments of risk.

Summary

This episode distills 2025’s biggest market forces and projects the major themes that will shape 2026 investing. It calls attention to the dominance (and risk concentration) in big banks and big AI, growing VC/private market dynamics, the shifting energy landscape, geopolitical flashpoints, and the ongoing disruption across tech, defense, and even food. Listeners are left with actionable, frank takes, a sense of the market’s structural risks, and the trends most likely to matter as a new year dawns.