Dan Nathan (2:36)

I thought you were saying we can't own Intel 274.

Joe Kernen (2:38)

We can only. We can only own Versant and happy to do so, but we're ordering in.

Dan Nathan (2:45)

Yes, because intel stock did hit an all time high just in after hours right now. And what's driving it isn't just the numbers, it's really where the growth is coming from. So datacenter revenue came in over 5 billion bucks, well above estimates as Gentex AI drives a surge in CPU demand. The CFO Dave Zisner told me they're so constrained on the server side that they're shifting PC production capacity over over to meet data center demand more so in the second half of the year. They've also been raising their average selling costs for pieces as well as CPUs to offset the this supply crunch within the CPU CPU part and then the memory costs on the PC part. But with higher pricing flowing through the second quarter, the CFO said both pricing and improving output will be meaningful contributors to revenue growth. On the Foundry front, this is what Wall street is definitely watching. The segment still has essentially one internal customer. The CFO said 18Y, which is a more advanced manufacturing process, are tracking better than expected. And 14, which is not expected until 2028 is already ahead of where 18 was at the same stage. In other words, they are doing better on the both both fronts. However, they did not announce a new partner or a new customer. He also said advanced packaging is now shaping up as a multibillion dollar per customer business. And then lastly, Tariff fab, the CFO called the Elon Musk Partnership quote, a great endorsement of Intel's Foundry and said there are quote many other customers behind, end quote. With Elon. A detail still being worked out though with both CEOs. Intel is trying to turn that Foundry from a money pit into a competitive asset. So it is a sign of strength. But they didn't finalize any details about that Foundry business deal.

Joe Kernen (4:26)

It's the market cap. I'm blown away. I was blown away where it was when it was at 18 because I watched it for 40 years probably and I watched the AMD Intel wars and

Karen Feiderman (4:38)

it was always two bucks.

Joe Kernen (4:39)

Yeah, and it was always I remember Jerry Sanders. I knew him. And what's AMD's market cap all of a sudden? I looked at that after some of the, the, the AI deals that it embarked upon. But intel, this puts it all the way back about 350 billion. What is it for 97, 490AMD did you know that, Carter, that that was

Carter Worth (4:57)

going to have a number at the top of.

Joe Kernen (5:00)

Anyway, Christina, thanks. We've got. Actually we do this a certain way and I always like we talk about it. Yeah, we're going to. But then we're going to trade it or you want to talk about.

Dan Nathan (5:10)

I usually, sometimes I sit here and

Joe Kernen (5:12)

join in, but please do you please do. Please do. And then you can. In fact, you can come in and talk about it tomorrow. And I'm personally invited.

Karen Feiderman (5:19)

No, no.

Dan Nathan (5:20)

The only thing I would add is that the stock.

Karen Feiderman (5:22)

Wow.

Dan Nathan (5:22)

I'm getting a little embarrassed right now for saying that, but the stock has run up a lot because it's been less about fundamentals and more about the narrative. You had President Trump, you know, tweeting about it. Elon Musk, you had Google saying that they're going to extend a partnership and so may maybe this earnings report really shows that revenue is climbing and that they potentially, you know, margins are improving, etc. So the numbers are starting to show some of that narrative and proving it now. You guys are looking at me, but yes.

Joe Kernen (5:48)

Well, I won't.

Gene Munster (5:49)

I'll look at.

Joe Kernen (5:50)

I'll look there. Intel results coming after The VanEck Semi ETF closed at a record. The SMH added a percent with Texas Instruments Microchip. And on Semi, among the best performers. The SMH up after hours as well, which is not surprising. Tim.

Tim Seymour (6:07)

Yes, sir.

Joe Kernen (6:07)

First of all, Joe, it's so great to have you watch how naturally I say this, Tim. Oh, yes, you've been pointing to Semi outperformance.

Tim Seymour (6:16)

It's so nice of you to have noticed that, Joe. Over the last.

Joe Kernen (6:19)

I knew she liked United Rentals. Right. Well, but I knew you've been talking

Tim Seymour (6:24)

about and we knew you were going to bring your special flair today, so it's great to have you. Thank you. It's been a long day.

Joe Kernen (6:30)

You were welcoming me and it's, it is hard. It's. It's hard work. It's hard to get back in here.

Tim Seymour (6:36)

Well, again, you put in a long day. So great to have you. And it's. I mean, Semi seemed like they'd put in a hard day going into today and yet look at this move. The fact that we're opening the show with intel to me is startling. It not because it wasn't a startling number and the move in the stock hasn't been extraordinary, but because intel has been so irrelevant. This renaissance in the cpu, which is what we've talked about, I mean, it's kind of the game is kind of played right into their hands. I still think that the market is doing too much with this whole concept of liquid's ability to, you know, asset sales, potentially strategic deals. We're hearing about Tesla now. I mean a lot of this feels a little bit like the Tesla model. Look over here while I'm doing this. The reality is that, that there are exciting things going on but there's a limit to what they, I think they can do on the production side given some supply constraints and some balance sheet constraints. Having said that, as you reference Joe, so semiconductors are going through maybe their most extraordinary period in the market. I mean outperformance and I mean outright absolute moves to all time highs. More so than they have at any time in the last three years when all we've done is talk about semis. That's extraordinary seeing as I don't know what inning we're in. Hopefully in Flushing where it seems like it's late innings early here. I do think we're in middle innings here and it's extraordinary. Consider we've had a big run.

Joe Kernen (7:56)

Do you have a lot on Intel?

Karen Feiderman (7:58)

Well, I do find this quarter just absolutely stunning. And going in the bar was I think getting higher and higher. Obviously the stock has had a huge run, but the magnitude of the revenue beats is really in the first 10%. 10 or depending on which, which data data centers. But just overall, overall on every metric.

Joe Kernen (8:19)

And Munster says that's, that's gigantic proposal. And you were talking to Santoli. I was inside out.

Peter Santoli (8:27)

Well, here's news. And I'm less interested in the 10% beat and revenue and the guidance up 9%. I mean this is a company that's growing earnings off a very low base. So if you wanted to say it was a huge beat. I read that a couple of times here. Here's the last time the stock was 70 bucks. Okay, you got to go back to 2021. There was peak earnings in sales that year. Okay. They basically did $79 billion in sales. 5, $5.47 in earnings. They had 57% gross margins. Okay, so this year it's at spot. Let's just assume numbers are going to go up kind of big. Right. They're expected to do $60 billion in sales. I'm just going to throw that out there. As far as the guide, if you want to kind of move that out, they're going to have what, I don't know, 55 cents in earnings, let's call that a dollar. Okay. And 37% gross. Margin. So we all know how to do math. All right, so the last time a Stock was at 70, just like that. Just think about that. So the multiple here is absolutely insane. For it to grow into that is going to be a real problem. And then here's the other thing. They're losing a lot of money on manufacturing. Okay? They lost two and a half billion dollars in the quarter. Now they have one customer and maybe this tariff thing works out well for them. This company does not have a great track record in manufacturing. Now I think it's great that they're going to be bringing manufacturing back here to the United States, but that's also going to be costly. And it's also going to be costly if they're shifting production away from PC chips over to these CPUs that they can sell into, you know, data centers. So to me, I think it's like, it feels like a bubble. That's all I'm saying. And then the SMH is now up 60% in a month.

Karen Feiderman (9:54)

I agree with that. I mean, I haven't owned it first, I haven't owned it and missed the entire run at every point along the way. I thought it was expensive and I still think it's expensive. And with the move, I particularly think it's expensive. But if you are owning it today for this, I think you're pretty happy with what these earnings are. So whatever excitement and forward multiple you want to put into it, I agree that the tariff is great, but that's, you know, three years down the road. So I can't, I, you know, the multiple is just way too high for me.

Carter Worth (10:23)

But that's been the many ways to look at it. I mean, we know that if it opens where it's indicated now, post close, it will finally take out its high all time high of August. So then what does that mean if you're back to where you were in the year 2000, just inflation, it means you're still down about 40%. So there's so many ways to tell the story. It depends how you want to do the headline. It's also worth note that Intel's relative performance to the tech sector peaked in around 96. And so again, these are great moments. You can trade this and that's all true. But as an asset, the greatest one of all turned out to be the biggest dud of all. This was the number one. It was the number one by far. So the question is, and also Texas Instruments, it's not idiosyncratic. The whole group is doing it. And herein is the rubber the only time where you've gone up 45% in a three week period? It happens during the last part of the bubble in 98, 99 and it also happened in 010203 on the way down when you had these violent countertrend moves. So we assume we're not in a downtrend, we're in an uptrend. Does it mean that we're close to that former peak? It would have to suggest that.

Joe Kernen (11:33)

Do I have to revise everything I said about the CHIPS act, how the government can't pick winners? Didn't it look like a bad well pick when we, when we gave so much money to intel and then all of a sudden it's like it looked

Tim Seymour (11:46)

like a subsidy too. I mean it looked like a warrants

Karen Feiderman (11:49)

though and they did have to meet certain.

Joe Kernen (11:50)

But is it working? And I'm not just blaming, you know it was a bipartisan deal and I'm not blaming by. But then the Trump administration went all in on this too. They know how to pick stocks. Obviously do that. They do, yes.

Peter Santoli (12:03)

Actually didn't they convert the grants to stock? So yeah, that was the trick and have a ball. I mean that wasn't the dumbest thing we could think of, right?

Joe Kernen (12:13)

I mean I can't do it. I have to give credit to both administrations. I think I do. Yeah. Do it.

Karen Feiderman (12:18)

Are you going to explode?

Joe Kernen (12:20)

I don't know. I've never done that before. Let's bring in Gene Munster for more. He's managing partner Deepwater Asset Management. Gene, you. It was a story stock on the way up and now it's real. That's what you're thinking right now.

Gene Munster (12:34)

Well, let me back up about a year just at Deepwater we own a lot of AI infrastructure. We're big believers. We're in the second inning. And we also sold Intel a year ago, never brought it back. And I think as I listen to the conversation here, we're kind of making the same mistake. We're overthinking this. We're looking at what the multiple is. We can look at the revenue multiple which trades at about half of where TSM and Nvidia are. So there's a little bit of valuation justification there. But I think we're overthinking this. What's going on here? This is, this is a broken company. This company was on the ropes. I have worked with people who have left intel because they felt they had no more mojo. And what has happened from going from revenue down 4% in December to up 7% in March. And if they do the same thing to their June quarter in terms of exceeding expectations, exceeding the high end of the same rate, they'll grow at 24%. So minus 4 plus 7, plus 24%. What's going on here is this is a rising tide. Now, I'm not saying we're going to buy the stock tomorrow. I struggle with missing something this spectacular. But the what is going on here is this is testimony to everything that we have been hearing. We are still very early in AI. It's testimony to the concept that Elon's been talking about, which is that chips are a big bottleneck. This advanced packaging piece is a major headache for how we're going to basically fuel the AI brain in the next five years. And intel, whether they have still dysfunctionality with all of their deficiencies, this defines the rising tide lifts all boats. I don't know what you do with that when it comes to do you own the stock? Do you not own the stock? But let's just call it like it is. That's what's going on here.

Joe Kernen (14:24)

If Gelsinger were still there, would we be here right now, do you think? Is he somewhere right now just like, is he like this? Or is he like. Or is he happy? Because he's still got a lot of Intel? Probably happy, probably happy.

Gene Munster (14:37)

But I mean, I think that I don't want to take anything away from their team, their leadership, any of that. But again, this is, I think, evidence that, you know, this rising tide. I saw Nvidia is down in the aftermarket. There's going to be this conversation about share taking between Nvidia and Intel, some sort of a distorted conversation around that. I mean, the reality is, is that we're still very early. And these bottlenecks. We talked about the tariff AV in 2029. I think, Karen, you mentioned that that's probably the right time to think about it. But think about that context is we're going to be having this conversation for years. So, Joe, I don't know. Again, I don't want to go and pile in. You know, just there's a natural reaction not to do that. But there is something still bigger going on here. And I think that we have to look beyond intel and look at the broader air trade and recognize we are still very early.

Tim Seymour (15:26)

So. But Jane, how about, you know, I get the fact that we've now rotated into CPUs and we've actually been doing that and. But you know, what do you do with then a Texas Instruments because again, it's one thing to say intel has had the market come to them. And I still don't think this bails out intel, although a lot of people might be throwing money at them. But from balance sheet issues and dynamics that I understand, Lip Bhutan has done a nice job with layoffs and trying to, to kind of refocus. But what do you do with the other names that weren't this beleaguered vertically integrated player that, you know, makes everything it then needs to mass produce?

Gene Munster (16:04)

Well, not all the stocks are going to kind of equally benefit, unfortunately. I just don't know a ton about, you know, Texas Instrument when it comes to the stock. And so I don't want to speak to that, but I do kind of want to speak to again, back to, you know, the broader trade. The question comes down to when I think about this Rising Tide impacting a lot of different players. They don't all have to be vertically integrated. There's a lot of suppliers, whether it's on energy or optics, that are having meaningful beneficiaries here. The question is not at this point whether or not the revenue numbers are going higher than expectation. The question comes down to will the market reward that we have seen in video continuing to raise and raise expectations. And the stock largely has not been rewarded for that. So Tim, as I kind of think about the dynamic and think about this Rising Tide, you know, it's definitely going on. It's going to go on for years. The question is at what point or how much the market is going to continue to expand the multiple on these companies in anticipation of this growth.

Joe Kernen (17:03)

All right, Gene, thank you and keep us posted with the details. So are you going to tell me whether they're buy this or not? Dan, is that traded?

Peter Santoli (17:12)

No, I think you sell it. I mean, I think it actually gives up a lot of these gains probably tomorrow. I think it's probably pretty exhausted and maybe this is a bit of a short squeeze. It was probably a short headed into the print given where in the expectations. But again, I go back to a 10% beat on sales and a 10% give me guys, I just don't find it particularly interesting, especially for a stock. You know, it used to be okay, you beat by 10%. You're up 10% that.

Karen Feiderman (17:37)

Oh no, not when your revenue's up 10. That's not you. There's no. You're not counting operating levels.

Peter Santoli (17:42)

Okay. But I mean like just, you know, okay, 13%. You know, my point is, is like this is getting a little much. Texas Instruments again, you know, 9% of their sales. And listen, I'm not like this is not hurting me one way or another. I'm just saying if you're going and chasing this right here, I just think you missed it. You missed it once, you missed it twice, you missed it three times. And so it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. And you know, this is probably one reason though if you see Broadcom has gone up in a straight line, right? So if you're looking for chip plays you need to do things that are going to play into inference that are get more specific. And I think that's one of the reasons why Google one of the only hyperscalers that's back towards its prior all time highs in this period that we've been because they have that TPU exposure in the they're getting orders outside of their own usage. So to me there's other ways to play it. I'd rather buy Google here than Intel.

Joe Kernen (18:29)

All right. Meanwhile, the software side of tech that trade dropping the IGV losses led by ServiceNow it saw its worst day on record. The company's subscription revenue taking a hit due to the war in Iran and the headwinds dragging down names like Workday as you can see their salesforce Also IBM, IBM, Microsoft also tumbling after it announced its first ever voluntary buyout. About 7% of its U.S. employees are eligible. Karen?

Karen Feiderman (19:01)

Yeah, so I don't, I don't own ServiceNow but I do think this, I mean first of all IGB has had an enormous bounce back so I think it was sort of poised to maybe correct a little. But one could make, if you wanted to make this apocalypse case the bearish case, you can sort of I guess start here. I mean there's a company normally, you know, Bill McDermott is extremely bullish all the time and, and wanted to sound bullish here and I think the Street's just not buying at the moment. Like could this be the one that we remember? The stock's obviously down a lot already before this. But this is a pretty dramatic response.

Carter Worth (19:38)

I mean just a testament to momentum in both directions, right? I mean a stock in an established downtrend that's dropping and gapping it did it again. Momentum is a factor is the single most robust and most quant models. And the opposite is for a strong stock that gets stronger at some point you say it's too far right. We can get a mean reversion. But buying a stock like ServiceNow just because it's down there is no known technique that makes that a good one.

Joe Kernen (20:02)

I'm ready for anyone to say what they want, but they told me to tease. But I want to give everyone a chance. Tim, you're good.

Tim Seymour (20:09)

I like your pants tonight. How about that?

Joe Kernen (20:10)

They're little lemons. I told you I like yours. You look pretty good in them. Jeans. And I like. I said that to you, too. And I asked whether it's okay for me to. But those are not normal like, those you don't buy, like, at a normal place. Those are nice, right? Thank you. You're welcome.

Karen Feiderman (20:26)

Thanks for highlighting that I am wearing jeans.

Joe Kernen (20:29)

They're not just jeans. Do they begin with a G?

Karen Feiderman (20:30)

They do.

Joe Kernen (20:31)

And end with an I?

Karen Feiderman (20:33)

They could.

Joe Kernen (20:35)

All right,

Karen Feiderman (20:37)

all right, all right.

Joe Kernen (20:38)

That narrows it down. Coming up, the tease already. That is now.

Karen Feiderman (20:41)

Tease again.

Joe Kernen (20:42)

Coming up, Industrials. Oh, you're not. Huh? Not the only one. You're not the only one. You're not the only one. I forgot. Industrials in focus, a couple of key names climbing higher in today's session. What's behind the moves and how much higher can they go? Details are next. Plus, we're watching shares of Nike after its latest job cut announcements. The details plus what the Lulu CEO announcement means for that company. Don't go anywhere fast Money is back in just a couple minutes.

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Joe Kernen (23:18)

And welcome back to Fast Money. United rentals soaring nearly 23% today after boosting its full year sales guidance last night. The stock trading at its highest level of the year. And fellow industrial name Caterpillar meanwhile closing at a record up another 3% today. It's now up six sessions in a row, 13 out of the last 14 gaining almost 16% in that time. And Karen, as we've been talking about earlier, you are in United Rentals.

Karen Feiderman (23:43)

I am in United Rentals. It's a big position, have been in it for a long, long time. This was a really, really good quarter. One of the things that happened last quarter and the stock traded down was that they had all these great big projects, products but they didn't have the right equipment where they needed to have it ultimately and it cost them a lot of money to deliver it and move. And they were very effective in getting that, in getting that delivery expense way down. That was excellent. So the margins were good. Also this is a team that likes to under promise over deliver. So they're going to raise guidance. I'm going to believe them. The thing is it's not super cheap here. So this is a really nice, it's fine, it's up 22% but, but if you don't own it today, I don't know that I would have to jump in tomorrow. I'm staying with it for sure for the long term but good for them. And this is, these projects are going to be multi year projects so we know they're going to have good revenue for some time.

Joe Kernen (24:33)

And how long have you been in it?

Karen Feiderman (24:35)

At least 10 years.

Joe Kernen (24:36)

10 years? Yeah. Well, I wasn't expecting that.

Tim Seymour (24:39)

She's a long term investor.

Karen Feiderman (24:40)

I'm a long term investor on a show called Fast Money.

Joe Kernen (24:42)

Are you the only person here that is in this, I think this is Karen's baby.

Tim Seymour (24:48)

I mean she's, she's been on it, she's been right. And I think there's been both a strategic kind of a secular element of what's been going on in the space. But I'll talk about Caterpillar if that's fair. What do you think?

Joe Kernen (25:01)

I'm ready to hear that.

Tim Seymour (25:03)

I'll jump in there. Well, I mean I think there's a story with Caterpillar too that there actually has been macro that's been very supportive. They're also strategically well positioned in the energy space, especially on pipeline manufacturing. And that's been part of the call for kind of fresh green shoots in the space. But it does at some point. We all know valuation is a terrible timing mechanism but, but Caterpillar as an industrial name is trading probably 35 to 40% more expensive than its 5 and 10 year historical. It's trading somewhere around 43 times on a trailing 12 month. And it's, it's just, you know, again I get where they're positioned and I get where there is a lot of infrastructure build out in this country. But at some point again, this is one of these stocks. It actually looks like it's a data center stock.

Joe Kernen (25:50)

All right, great. There's, we're going to go now unless Carter, you got a Caterpillar.

Carter Worth (25:56)

Great. I like that kind of momentum. I mean obviously it's expensive but that's not it down yet. It's not a reason to buy or sell a stock unless of course it's 10 years and that's a different matter. I will point out. Just maybe get on this. Do you know where? The exact opposite. I've never had a long term capital gains my life.

Karen Feiderman (26:12)

Really. Oh, I love to maximize as I possibly can. If we ever get married that would be great.

Carter Worth (26:21)

We will offset each other beautifully.

Joe Kernen (26:23)

Eamon Javers, I am told urgently in my ear. Eamonn, what's going on? This is unplanned.

Eamon Javers (26:30)

Yes, that's right. Take a live look inside the Oval Office right now. The President just called White House reporters. He's introducing ambassadors from various places in the world and he just put out a truth social post. The President said that he has met with the ambassadors to Lebanon and to Israel. You see there the Secretary of State Marco Rubio is talking alongside Vice President Vance and the President himself. The President in his truth social post says that the meeting with the representatives from Israel, Lebanon went very well. The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks. I look forward in the near future to hosting the Prime Minister of Israel, Bibi Netanyahu, and the President of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun. It was a great honor to be a participant in this very historic meeting. He's now reading out that meeting to the press pool in the Oval Office. So we'll update you with any details. The significance here. A couple of things, Joe. One is the extension of this cease fire by a three week period of time now between Israel and Lebanon. That is something that the Iranians had said was crucial to any peace agreement between the United States and Iran. They wanted all along the cease fire to include Lebanon and Israel to stop their attacks there. The president seems to be going some way here toward what the Iranians want by announcing this extension of the cease fire. The other language here that's interesting to me, Joe, is the president saying the United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah, suggesting that there are factions inside Lebanon that the United States has some agreement with already to work in a counterintelligence way against Hezbollah. So we'll see what what else the President has to announce in the Oval Office right now.

Carter Worth (28:26)

Joe, back over to you.

Joe Kernen (28:28)

Excellent. I'm glad you were ready, Eamon, and thanks for bringing us that. And you bet. Keep us updated. All right. We'll have more fast money in just a couple minutes.

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Julia Boorstin (29:42)

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Dan Nathan (29:46)

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Joe Kernen (30:12)

All right, welcome back to Fast Money. You can see shares of Nike right now flat or so. Not much happening after the company announced it was cutting about 1400 jobs. That's less than 2% of the workforce. But the second round of layoffs this year. And the news comes after a day after news that longtime Nike exec Heidi O' Neill was going to be the next CEO of rival Lululemon. And she starts on September 8th. Is this a loss for Nike, a gain for Lululemon?

Karen Feiderman (30:45)

Well, I get Lululemon thinks not. Right. The stock's telling you not maybe. No. Obviously Nike has a used to own Nike. I sold it pretty recently. It didn't work. So people seem somewhat disappointed in the choice and that if Nike this was plucked from Nike where Nike isn't a shining example of what to do as a retailer in the last couple of years. I think they. The other thing is when you get a new CEO, if I were the new CEO, the first thing I do kitchen sink. Kitchen sink. Right. That first quarter just take it down. Right. No reason to put the bar high and so they could end up doing that. I mean this. I didn't think I would see Lululemon at this P E multiple. But I mean maybe it really is. We were talking Carter about is it an Under Armour situation? I don't know. I'm not long in here.

Carter Worth (31:35)

Yeah, it's just the kind of thing resist the temptation to buy cheap is a four letter word in this business. Or 500 stay away.

Peter Santoli (31:41)

Yeah, it's interesting to note, you know, 1800 jobs, 78,000 base, that's 2%. Right. So Metta just announced that they're cutting 8,000 jobs. They also have 78,000 employees. Right. So if you're Nike and you're having these execution, I mean the list goes on and on about their problems and the stock is trading at levels it hasn't seen in 15 years or so. You'd think that they really would. You're saying kitchen sink, the new CEO, you just got to take things out. You get you to turn this thing around and give people a reason to kind of buy it and just to suck this new plan coming here.

Karen Feiderman (32:13)

I think referring though to Lulu as potential Under Armour, not Nike.

Peter Santoli (32:17)

Yeah, no.

Karen Feiderman (32:18)

Okay.

Tim Seymour (32:18)

Yeah. No, look, in my neighborhood we had Alo and Viori and I mean no one cares about that other than to say I think there's way too much athleisure other than Joe, I know is a big consumer in that space. I mean, you know, they last.

Joe Kernen (32:33)

I don't have a consumer recently, but I have a lot of Lululemon.

Tim Seymour (32:37)

Well, and the argument against Lulu is also, you know, they went into this downturn at peak margin, so we don't really even know what the multiple is. I, you know, look also at Burke. Look at, look at, look at Deckers. Look at, look at a lot of this trendy either footwear, outdoor wear. I think there's a flood of it and I think discretionary in that corner is part of also the over. I think there's a macro concern and I think there's a bottom up.

Joe Kernen (33:03)

All right, good. Coming up, we talked to Bookvar. He always puts out some called the. The Book Report. Get it? Yeah. He says good read. And he used to work for a place called Bleakley. To match. I know to match his thinking almost all the time anyway. He thinks the markets have gotten too complacent and where he's still finding opportunity at this point. Fast Money is back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. A top investor worries the market is becoming too nonchalant when it comes to risks. The NBC contributes contributor Peter Bookvar is the chief investment officer at one point BFG Wealth Partners. I kind of agree with you and then sometimes I kind of don't, Peter, because I think that at this point the narrative is changing and this is kind of a crowded viewpoint that there's a lot of people saying, you know, we totally underestimated the length of this war. At this point, we saw the V shape. It almost looks like liberation day. Right. And here we are and you know, there's estimates it could be months and then after it does reopen months to get things going again. So I think everybody's a little bit more. I don't see a lot of complacency right now.

Peter Bookvar (34:24)

Well, at the end of March when the CNN Fear Greed index got to 10, I had wrote that we're ripe for a rally just trying to figure out what the catalyst would be. And the catalyst was the messaging out of the White House that seemed to be that they wanted to end the war. And I've been optimistic that that's going that was going to happen over the last couple weeks. But each day that goes by, the supply shortages, the supply chain crunches become more acute. And while of course the war is going to end, that strait is going to reopen at some point. The longer it drags out, the more I'm worried about accidents beginning to happen. And now that we've come as far as we have, that's where I think the complacency is. Now the market is rewarding those companies that are seeing good business. Anything touching, of course this AI data center build out is doing well. The spenders on that, the hyperscalers, they're not. Those stocks are still below where they were last October. So I don't, I don't care about what the S and P is going to do. I'm trying to find things in between and underneath that are going to do well and avoid things that I think are getting too extended here. Like the Sox, which since the mid-90s has never been up in its history 17 days in a row.

Joe Kernen (35:42)

Well, you would say right now that the backdrop, the current narrative for how this is going to play out is that we're still thinking there's going to be something within days, maybe Friday, some type of agreement to extend the cease fire and reopen the strait. Because I don't think, I don't, I don't see that complacency. I know the market has rebounded and maybe the market itself looks complacent, but I think there's still plenty. A huge wall of worry just in sentiment for the market to keep climbing. I think everybody agrees with you right now.

Peter Bookvar (36:13)

Yeah, no, I agree with you. I think that there's obviously clearly plenty of risks. I mean we're negotiating now it seems like with the irgc. I mean, flip a coin on how that's going to go. But just when you have this speed and rapidity of a rally in a very condensed period of time tells me that the market has pulled forward. A lot of optimism.

Joe Kernen (36:35)

I mean it is pretty staggering that we broke out to all those new highs right in the middle of, of this. And once that surprises over, maybe you're right. Maybe here there's backing and filling or we could go to new lows. Theoretically, no one's saying that we couldn't. I know some technicians, you know, Katie Stockton kind of kidding her about it, but she right before the 13 day NASDAQ streak, she said, oh yeah, 6100 on the S&P and you know, 58,000 on Bitcoin. It's like that could still happen, Peter.

Tim Seymour (37:10)

It can. And I guess my view or my thought, my question to you Peter is what if, if say war is done and I understand elongating the conflict only continues to add to inflation pressure. So let's just say decks are cleared pieces here, S and p is at 7100. Where are you now? And I think we see the world the same way, which includes we kind of like the rest of the world, etcetera, etcetera. I'm just curious, let's just say war has been settled. What do you do with the market here?

Peter Bookvar (37:39)

Well, I'm particularly bullish on commodities and we know energy prices are going to fall sharply when that happens. And the question of course is where oil is going to settle out. But I'm of the opinion that commodities generally are going to see a higher low and that you're going to see 85 being the new 65 when it comes to crude oil, for example, you're going to see global stockpiling and hoarding and strategic reserves of everything. And if that's the case, if commodity prices remain elevated, we're going to see because of these supply disruptions that will continue even upon cessation of the war, just a general bid I believe still to inflation that's going to make interest rates relatively sticky occurring or higher levels. I mean quietly the 10 year JGB yield is just shy of its highest level since 1999. The German bond yield, the 10 year is just shy of its highest level Since 2011. So I still think that those are going to be issues but I do think we also revert back to maybe a weaker dollar which can benefit international markets which certainly had a great year Last year after 15 years of underperformance had a good January, February until the pullback. But they've come roaring back too along with the S and P. So Kerry,

Joe Kernen (38:50)

we had, you know, a couple of Iraq wars we had, we've had so many like mirror images of what we've seen this time around. They always, they didn't always have oil as a wild card. With the Straits close, should this be like the other ones where we shouldn't be surprised that we got a V bottom?

Karen Feiderman (39:09)

It was worse then when we didn't have because we weren't self sufficient. Right.

Joe Kernen (39:13)

That's a big part of it.

Karen Feiderman (39:14)

That's a big part. I remember being very bearish when 41 went on the offensive in Kuwait and that was the bottom. That day was the bottom. And I remember thinking oh this is

Joe Kernen (39:26)

terrible right but yes, and this time we knew that. And everybody said, you know, usually you look through the geopolitics, political and blah, blah, but no one really believed. But then it happened again. How did it happen again, though? It happened again, we never learned. But is it, is it justified to happen again this time? Or could we all be. Could it be a terrible trap?

Karen Feiderman (39:47)

I guess it could be a terrible trap. But I really believe that you would know this way better than I think.

Joe Kernen (39:51)

Peter thinks it's a terrible. He thinks it's a terrible trap.

Karen Feiderman (39:53)

But I think that Trump has really, really not a lot of. Not a lot of patience for this hurting the market, although he'll do whatever it takes for the market, resolve it for the market to get back on its foot.

Joe Kernen (40:07)

And you can tell a lot of times by what he's responding to, how he's thinking and he's saying, I don't need to do anything right now. They're the ones that are getting squeezed. We're fine. They don't have any revenue. They can't last. So I'm patient. But when he says that, I think he's.

Karen Feiderman (40:21)

Well, he's under the clock of the midterms.

Joe Kernen (40:23)

Yeah, he is. And the American stomach for a protracted war, which we had a few of those.

Karen Feiderman (40:30)

So you're the whisperer. What would you say?

Joe Kernen (40:35)

I think you should accomplish what this is. In 47 years, is this not the best time to try to really do something? And the midterms are. I don't know. What are you going to do about those anyway at this point? I do what you need to do. That's what presidents are supposed to do, weren't they?

Karen Feiderman (40:52)

I guess so.

Joe Kernen (40:54)

All right. We weren't. We. Dan, I promised we wouldn't talk, that I wouldn't say the T word. And it just came out. I think it was your fault that the T word is Trump. Yeah. Yeah. We weren't.

Peter Santoli (41:05)

Oh, he's winking. I thought it was TPUs. I thought you meant TPUs. And we already did that. The A block.

Carter Worth (41:10)

We weren't going to.

Joe Kernen (41:11)

We're not going to do this. We're not a political show. This is. No, you're not.

Tim Seymour (41:14)

We're fast money.

Joe Kernen (41:15)

No, the CNBC is not. Not a political network. Far be it from me. Thanks, Peter. Coming up, where chartmaster Carter Wirth sees the health care sector heading next. We're going to dig into the technicals with fast money returns. We've got another news alert out of Washington. President Trump making some comments on a soldier that's been arrested for betting on Maduro's removal. Get back to Amen for that. Hey, Eamon.

Eamon Javers (41:48)

Hey there, Joe. That's right. The President was asked about this ABC News report that crossed us a couple of moments ago. The ABC report says that a Special Forces soldier was arrested by law enforcement earlier today and accused of making $400,000 in profit in prediction markets betting on the removal of Maduro. This soldier allegedly participated in the. The Maduro raid and so obviously would have had insider knowledge of that. The President was asked about that report. He said he doesn't know anything about that particular arrest, but he said, in his view, the whole world has become a casino. He asked whether the soldier bet that Maduro would or would not be removed. And then he said that this is like Pete Rose betting on his own baseball team. He appeared to suggest that this was a corrupt act, but he said he was not aware of this particular soldier and the accusations against him.

Joe Kernen (42:41)

Joe, now, now you're making it personal, Eamon. Talking about Rose betting on the Reds was one thing. It was betting against the Reds. That would have really been. Would have really been bad. And I don't know whether that actually happened or not. Should he be in the. In the HOF or not even. We got to go.

Empower Advertiser (42:58)

If it's.

Eamon Javers (42:59)

If it's. If it's me. No. And I rooted for him when he was with the Phillies.

Tim Seymour (43:04)

I'm on Amen's team on this one.

Joe Kernen (43:06)

4200 hits put me in. Coach. How many guys had heads the size of pumpkins after standards?

Tim Seymour (43:14)

I mean, what about Barry Bonds? Where are we going with this? I mean, I don't know.

Joe Kernen (43:18)

20 seasons of 200 plus hits.

Tim Seymour (43:20)

Every Barry Bonds in the hall either.

Eamon Javers (43:22)

I think you wiped out the whole steroid era.

Joe Kernen (43:25)

So you don't think.

Tim Seymour (43:26)

I'm not saying anything. But he might.

Joe Kernen (43:27)

You're not.

Tim Seymour (43:27)

Whatever might have been going on, we

Joe Kernen (43:28)

have Pete Roseway in Cincinnati. I love Pete, but just no hall of Fame.

Tim Seymour (43:33)

Yeah, Big Red machine was as good as it got.

Joe Kernen (43:36)

Think about it. Think about.

Tim Seymour (43:38)

You want me to go through Dreeson? Yeah, I mean, Joe Morgan. Come on, Ben. Sean Gullet, Perez. All right, you win.

Joe Kernen (43:48)

We got to go to Carter, not Gary. Meantime, health care is the worst performing sector this year, down almost 6%. And the Chartmaster thinks it might be ailing for some time. Carter, what do you see?

Carter Worth (44:00)

Yeah, as far as. I'm kind of with you on the body of work. Hall of Fame for me. But anyway, here we go. Not me, Mr. Rose. Here we go. So here's the chart and what we know is this thing is just meandering and meandering and basically the whole thing has gone nowhere. That's the problem. Two years of nothing. Let's clear that and look at the next one and annotate it a couple different ways. Same chart once again. Is it a double top? It sure looks like that. Let's keep that same annotation. Next iteration. Let's put in the trend line. We are hovering ominously and you'll see it here coming up. We're hovering ominously right on trend. Next chart if we can get it. And you'll see that the risk is we're going to break trend right here. Let's keep that same trend line in effect since the lows of tariff iteration number three. Take a look. Not only is it a double top on the longer term chart, but you'll see here we have something of a head and shoulders. These formations are very real and time tested. And so let's also look at relative performance. Let's look at a two panel end with that. This same setup on top. That's clear. Most importantly, sideways for two years. So what does that mean? Relative performance down and down and down and down. In fact, today the health care is making 10 year relative lows. The S and P. Wow. No premise to be long.

Joe Kernen (45:18)

All right, thank you, Carter. Karen.

Karen Feiderman (45:21)

I am long. Keep your eye on, well, the health care that's broader. I'm long Lilly. I'm long Novo. I'm long Merck. Tim and I share, we share some Pfizer.

Tim Seymour (45:31)

Pfizer love.

Joe Kernen (45:32)

Yes, yes. Really, Pfizer. They need a weight loss drug I think, don't they? Meanwhile, shares of Comcast seeing their best day in nearly three years at after beating top and bottom line estimates for the first quarter, the former parent of CNBC saying that its streaming service Peacock is approaching profitability for the first time in the current quarter. Now, Dan.

Peter Santoli (45:54)

Yeah, I mean media has been a tough place, right. So we had that M and A or that actually, I mean it went on and on and on. We're seeing spin offs and I would expect to see as some of the degradation in some of those sub numbers as we're like I just can't imagine, imagine if Peacock is starting to make money that you're not going to see additional cord cutting. So to me I think it's a tough place to be. But like you said, that version that's actually made up a lot of ground. I know you bought it towards the lows here and it looks like I

Joe Kernen (46:19)

bought it and I admitted it. Yeah, no, 32. It actually by. Under, under 30.

Karen Feiderman (46:25)

I bought a 41 all the way down to.

Joe Kernen (46:27)

You did.

Peter Santoli (46:28)

Yeah. But it trades very well.

Joe Kernen (46:29)

And it seems like the only thing,

Peter Santoli (46:30)

again, we're talking to, you know, an audience of one here. It seems like there's some interesting stuff on there.

Tim Seymour (46:36)

You're like Pete Rose betting on his own team.

Joe Kernen (46:37)

No, don't CEOs, when they come in, don't they take a stake there? I know I'm going to work hard for Versant, so why wouldn't I? Why shouldn't I be an owner?

Karen Feiderman (46:47)

Was the president saying he was betting on himself, that he was going to get Maduro this soldier? Is that what he was saying? I'm saying if he knew that the game was on, that. That was the part that.

Joe Kernen (46:57)

Oh, okay. Now I'll tell you about Comcast. The thing that was most. And you guys haven't lived and died with every quarter of Comcast either, because that was our parent for so long. They finally had broadband ads. You know when the last time they had ads?

Peter Santoli (47:13)

Net ads, 13 years ago?

Joe Kernen (47:15)

No, almost 2000, I think 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020 or 21. So that was a big, big switch. I think that's why it was up. Meantime, Netflix, Julie would know this. Netflix lost the bidding war for Warner Brothers in February, but could the streamer be looking for another deal now? CNBC's Julia Boorstin has the details. Hey, Julia.

Karen Feiderman (47:37)

Hey, Joe.

Julia Boorstin (47:38)

Well, Netflix today making its first big move in the wake of losing that Warner Brothers deal. Announcing a new $25 billion share buyback program. This is in addition to $6.8 billion remaining from a previous share buyback authorization with $2.8 billion in a breakup fee from that Warner Brothers deal. Netflix isn't just using its cash to bolster its stock, but it also said it has built its M and a muscle. Netflix has said the company will be disciplined and opportunistic around deals. And given the limited big assets up for grabs, its next deals are likely to be smaller companies that accelerate key priorities, including growing its ad business and also competing with YouTube for younger viewers. Now, there are a couple type of types of deals to watch out for. One is rights to sports events like the NFL's five game package that Netflix is currently in talks for shows around YouTube creators like Netflix's Mark Rober show to help lure younger audiences, ad tech companies to help with Netflix building its own ad stack. And more AI visual effects companies. Like Inner Positive, which is Ben Affleck's AI company that Netflix bought just last month. So, Joe, be an interesting period to watch without those big things up for play, right?

Joe Kernen (48:54)

Okay. Thank you, Julia. Speaking of gamblers, Ben Affleck. Whoa. Anyway, Karen, what do you think?

Karen Feiderman (49:03)

What do I think? I'm long Netflix. It's not. It's not cheap. I think that. I mean, that would have been a very big deal for them Warner Brothers and somewhat trajectory changing. So. So I like it here. I'm staying with it. I hope. These are just sort of fill ins that add to, you know, like the visual effects, which I think could help them on expenses a lot.

Joe Kernen (49:22)

Okay, we're going to come back in a second with some final trades. Final trade time.

Tim Seymour (49:40)

Tim, Joe, George Foster, Davey Concepcion and other members.

Joe Kernen (49:43)

Numbers of the big machines are geronimo.

Tim Seymour (49:45)

Cesar, don't buy the igv.

Karen Feiderman (49:49)

Okay, Karen, in the Don't Buy theme, you are. I like it. But wait, you'll have a better chance. And thank you, Joe, for being here.

Joe Kernen (49:55)

Thank you for having me and putting up the dance.

Peter Santoli (49:58)

Yeah, don't buy intel here. I said that two days ago, but

Joe Kernen (50:01)

I would not buy it here. And Carter, Health Care.

Carter Worth (50:03)

Don't buy xlv.

Joe Kernen (50:05)

Oh, my God. I've got five seconds. What to do? I was going to think of Tommy Helms. Oh, no. Oh, that's before that Madmanni starts out.

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Julia Boorstin (50:44)

confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

Dan Nathan (50:47)

I have no fear of failure.

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Trailblazing women, changing the game.

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One of my favorite pieces of advice.

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Think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

Joe Kernen (51:02)

Life is short and you just gotta

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think big to accomplish big things.

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