Software Leading a Market Rally… And What To Expect from Yen Intervention. 8/3/26

Summary

CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Software Leading a Market Rally… And What to Expect from Yen Intervention
Air Date: August 3, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Guy Adami, Carter Braxton Worth
Main Theme:
This episode unpacks the powerful rally in software stocks led by Microsoft, the underperformance (and potential comeback) of semiconductors, the major yen intervention and its global market impacts, retail sector surprises, Boeing’s reversal, transport stocks’ strength, and key moves in biotech and oil.

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1. Software’s Surging Rally: Microsoft and Beyond

[01:02–09:46]

Key Discussion Points

• Historic Moves: Microsoft up over 25% since its earnings last week, contributing $720B in market cap and igniting a broader software sector uptrend (IGV ETF near 2-month highs).
• Semis Stall: The SMH ETF (Semiconductors) lags badly this quarter, but some traders still see opportunity in both tech subsectors.
• Earnings Reassurance: Microsoft, Amazon, and others are showing robust ad growth (26–28%), reassuring investors over AI and cloud monetization.
• The “All-Clear” Signal: Several panelists felt that much of the fear around software stocks had abated following these results.

“I do think you sort of get an all clear sign here and we've been bullish on the IGV for a while... I think that's where it trades back up to and it can do that regardless of whether or not Microsoft moves from here.”
– Guy Adami [02:43]

• Cautious Optimism vs. FOMO:
  • Carter Braxton Worth emphasized that such rapid surges (Microsoft up 26% in three days) often reverse, suggesting a tactical “fade the rally” approach for short-term traders.
  • Others pointed out that volatility in single large-cap tech stocks remains elevated—even as the VIX is low.

“If you're short term in nature, you want to sell calls against these things or trim... It feels again impulsive, impetuous, a bit knee jerk.”
– Carter Braxton Worth [04:48]

• Market Broadening:
  • Not just an AI/software story—equal weight indices are up too.
  • The panel agreed investors are rewarding companies that can monetize AI, but also noted the need to stay diversified.

Notable Quotes

• “There's some sense that [hyperscaler free cash flow] is coming back... These companies are still growing massively... At the end of the day, the numbers that these folks have reported should have given a lot of reassurance.”
  – Guy Adami [03:11]

• “There is some room for this [NASDAQ] trade to continue to rotate into, because that has not been one of your best performers this year.” – Courtney Garcia [07:52]

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2. Palantir’s Blowout Earnings and AI as Competitive Edge

[10:26–15:32]

Highlights

• Palantir Surges: Revenue up 149% YoY in commercial, 90% in government sectors; stock up over 10% after hours.
• CEO Alex Karp’s Exclusive Interview:
  • Stressed enterprise desire to control their own AI models, not rely on “Frontier Labs”.
  • Criticized OpenAI and Anthropic's data use policies and championed Palantir’s application-layer approach for AI.

“What you see in both the sovereign demand for our product... helping to open up the world to being receptive to open weight models and their fine tuning... Frontier is a business unlike any other business that is poised to grow with these margins...” – Alex Karp via Seema Modi [11:14]

• Valuation Caveats:

  • Forward P/E at 86, raising “show me” story concerns—can this momentum continue?
  • Commercial-client mix now 50/50 with government—seen as a positive evolution.

• Technical Outlook:

  • Carter Worth sees $144–$145 as a short-term target before harvesting gains.

“Just as you all referred, down some 48-50% from its peak... the 150 day moving average comes into play... around 144. Again, indicated at 139. I would think it gets a little bit higher. 144–145. And that's where one might want to harvest if one is a short term trader.”
– Carter Braxton Worth [15:00]

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3. Macro: Interest Rates, Value, and the Yield Curve

[15:57–18:31]

• No Hike Expected: Morgan Stanley’s Cathy Entwistle sees no further Fed rate hikes this year, with a base case for a cut in 2027.
• Portfolio Positioning: Advises moving cash into longer-term, higher-yielding assets before rates shift.
• Yield Curve: Suggests focusing on intermediate duration; mortgage rates likely to normalize around 6%.
• IPO Trends: Warns of less short-term IPO “pop,” says value is captured earlier in private markets.

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4. Boeing’s Rebound: Sentiment, Regulation, and the “Double Upgrade”

[23:35–26:39]

• Event: Boeing soared 8% on Max 7 FAA approval and a rare “double upgrade” by BNP Paribas (new target: $300).
• Analyst Take:
  • Regulatory green light a key sentiment shift after years of set-backs.
  • Free cash flow emerges as the core thesis for a durable long-term recovery.

“It’s more about a company economy that does seem to be on the right side of the regulatory environment… I do think it’s a case of free cash flow once again with Boeing.”
– Guy Adami [24:11]

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5. Retailing: Macy's, Target, and Consumer Surprises

[28:44–31:43]

• XRT ETF at 5-year highs; Macy’s, Target rallying hard; Abercrombie & Fitch with its best day since November.
• Macy’s Thesis: Margin improvement, online expansion, real estate value—stock not expensive (sub-8x earnings).
• Selective Approach:
  • Not all retailers are equal; Lululemon down 40% YTD even as Macy’s is up 14%.
  • Broader rally suggests consumer health is stronger than expected.

“I think this does challenge the idea that the consumer is falling apart. They're clearly holding in, I think, better than people have been giving them credit for.”
– Courtney Garcia [30:15]

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6. Yen Intervention: Unprecedented Move & Global Impact

[34:43–40:38]

Key Points

• Coordinated US-Japan-EU Intervention: First such action since 1998 to prop up the yen, which hit 40-year lows (hovering near 155 to the dollar).
• Market Implications:
  • Carry trade “unwind” risk if the yen strengthens sharply could shake global markets.
  • Intervention viewed as temporary—true policy shift (pegging, significant coordinated hikes) seen as unlikely.
  • Japanese exports/stock market could be affected, but current intervention likely maintains yen in a tight range.

“This is maybe the compromise, get the yen somewhat stronger... but not such extent that it affects their export machine or their banking system.”
– Ben Emmons [36:32]

• Investment Takeaway: Short-term: playable bounce in the Nikkei; long-term: caution as further intervention could sell Treasuries and impact US yields.

“My hunch is to play the Nikkei for a bounce here.”
– Carter Braxton Worth [39:59]

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7. Biotech: Amgen and Pharma M&A Buzz

[40:38–43:45]

• Amgen: Technical setup points to a breakout; Carter Worth sees 8–9% upside (“about 412” target).
• Industry Tailwinds: Biotech M&A is picking up, with AstraZeneca making moves, and large-cap pharma seeking new growth drivers.
• Panelists Highlight: Opportunity in “laggards” like Biogen alongside strong trends in big pharma and select biotech.

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8. Transportation Outperformance

[43:45–45:43]

• Transports: Railroads and airlines both outperforming S&P; rally driven by lower oil, receding geopolitical risk, and solid earnings.
• Rotation Play: Rails slightly stretched; opportunity seen in airlines as market broadens out.

“It's always good to double back, find something like this that's sort of off the radar, that hasn't participated and favor it.”
– Carter Braxton Worth on Boeing [26:02]

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9. Oil Majors vs. Refiners

[32:27–34:43]

• Integrated Oil Companies (Exxon, Chevron): Despite political scrutiny over profits tied to the Iran war, cash flows are strong and stocks may continue to rerate higher.
• Refiners: Seen as stretched; panel favors integrated majors for further upside.

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10. Final Trades & Takeaways

[46:06–46:54]

• Carter Braxton Worth: DJX stalled—bearish on Walmart and Costco.
• Guy Adami: Bullish on Target; expects surprise in same-store sales.
• Courtney Garcia: Likes Caterpillar at post-correction levels.
• Tim Seymour: Calls Alibaba the final “trade.”

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Memorable Moments / Panel Quotes

• “Carter gives us a lot of, a lot of good vernacular in terms.” — Melissa Lee [09:13]
• “Frontier is a business unlike any other business that is poised to grow with these margins and with this revenue growth for another 18 months.” — Alex Karp [11:14 via interview]
• “Double secret probation of course is what happened to [...] the fraternity in Animal House”—Guy Adami and Tim Seymour riffing on analyst “double upgrades” [25:03]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• [01:02] – Show opening, market summary
• [02:29–09:46] – Microsoft/Software rally, semis stall, broad market volatility
• [10:26–15:32] – Palantir earnings and AI landscape
• [15:57–18:31] – Interest rates, macro positioning, IPO trends
• [23:35–26:39] – Boeing’s FAA approval and “double upgrade”
• [28:44–31:43] – Retail (Macy’s, Target), consumer trends
• [34:43–40:38] – Yen intervention: causes, consequences, investment strategy
• [40:38–43:45] – Biotech, Amgen’s breakout setup
• [43:45–45:43] – Transportation sector strength
• [32:27–34:43] – Oil majors vs. refiners
• [46:06–46:54] – Final trades

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Overall Tone:
Fast-paced, data-driven, witty, and direct—with the traders blending tactical advice with long-term perspectives, and lively exchanges on both macro risk and stock-specific momentum.

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For more actionable insight from Fast Money, subscribe and catch new market-moving episodes each weeknight at 5pm ET on CNBC.

Transcript

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[Melissa Lee]

any product the board recommends approving.

[Guy Adami]

Regarding that seat on the committee, we're promoting quarterly earnings.

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[Melissa Lee]

Live from the NASDAQ Marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Software surging a semi stall. What's behind the reversal in these two pillars of the tech trade and where do these groups go from here? We'll debate that an unprecedented action to support the yen and what this weekend's intervention means for the Japanese currency and the potential ripple effects for global markets. Plus, Boeing bounces for its best day of the year. Macy's heads towards nearly five year highs and transport tailwinds, a group quietly outperforming the broader market this year. What's got these stocks putting the pedal to the metal and how much higher they still have room to run. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from CUB at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Guy Adami and Carter Braxton. Worth of worth charting. We start off with stocks and big gains to start the week now adding nearly 700 points setting a new all time high at the close. The S and P also within spitting distance of records. And while the NASDAQ is still about 4% from its best levels, the tech heavy index did lead the gains today up more than 2% while one big winner, Microsoft up another 5% on the session, its third straight day of gains. It is now up a whopping 25% since earnings last Wednesday adding $720 billion to its market cap in that period. The gains helping the long lagging software stocks make up ground against semi stocks. The IGV ETF trading near 2 month highs while The SMH is down double digits this quarter. So can this outperformance last? What does it mean for the rest of the of the market? Has software gotten an all clear of some sort guy?

[Tim Seymour]

Last time we were together on Thursday

[Melissa Lee]

I believe in 10 minutes ago.

[Tim Seymour]

Well we were together 10 wells bell over time. Yeah and anyway Thursday no, but I

[Guy Adami]

spent a lot of time together really as well. It's good, it's good for TV's audience

[Tim Seymour]

by the way But Tim mentioned he thought the Microsoft move continue and here we are. That's an extraordinary move by anybody's standards. And look I thought it would sort of fell on Thursday's close. It did not. But I'll say this to your point about the the igv. Yeah I do think you sort of get an all clear sign here and we've been bullish on the IGV for a while. So that 115 level ish is where it broke down from a while ago. I think that's where it trades back up to and it can do that regardless of whether or not Microsoft moves from here.

[Guy Adami]

I think the free cash flow in the hyperscalers is something that we've spent a lot of time looking at and I think there's some sense that it's coming back. I think there's some sense that they're going to continue to not necessarily deliver this ROI that we can quantify but that there is some sense of these. These companies are still growing massively. What we've learned when we whether we heard about ad growth at 28%, 26% for, for matter for, for us but Azure absolutely. The, the growth that blew away the numbers at the end of the day the numbers that these folks have reported should have given a lot of reassurance. Does this solve the software dilemma? Well I tell you what we're going to talk about Palantir, we've talked about a lot of different parts of the software trade that never were even affected by anything related to data, anything related to infrastructure, anything related to just to security. So I think you had overrotation. I think you had a dynamic where these things were left for dead. I actually think that semis and software can rally here and that's what today was all about.

[Courtney Garcia]

And I think what I really like to see is on a day like today markets are doing well, you're seeing the trade is doing well. But it's not that the rest of the markets are doing poorly. People aren't necessarily taking money out of those areas. And if you look at the equal weight that was up today also and not as much obvious your trade is doing better, which I think is good as people are rotating back in. But I don't think this is saying okay all in on AI trade. I think you still want to be broadly diversified here, but I think investors are really rewarding those companies who can monetize AI and show some sort of clear path to that monetization. And that's going to continue, but I think the broader markets are going to follow with it.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter, what are your thoughts on today IGV broader markets?

[Carter Braxton]

Well, IGV of course before the past two to eight weeks of strength was trading at 14 year lows relative to, to semis and to tech in general. And the question is, and there's really no answer to it, we're all going to wonder and figure it out in the day days ahead. But for Microsoft to pop 26% in one day, three days, excuse me, Amazon and so forth with gaps, is that impetuous knee jerk, impulsive? And on a tactical basis is it right to assume they pull in, they dip, they give back, consolidate, or, or is it the beginning of something that's very enduring? My own hunches, if you're short term in nature, you want to sell calls against these things or trim then to the broader question on the desk, is this the beginning of what can be, hey, maybe the worst is over for this very impaired area within the most important sector. But since I'm on the shorter term nature of things and it gets down to this buy seller hold, I am a fader, a seller of these very aggressive three day moves in such big marquee names with gaps. It feels again impulsive, impetuous, a bit knee jerk.

[Melissa Lee]

Couldn't be clearer than that. It does feel though like overall we're seeing a little bit of a mean reversion here in terms of valuation. Even if we just showed a chart of Metta, I mean Metta basically erase its post earnings losses back to the pre earnings levels.

[Tim Seymour]

I was surprised at how poorly it traded in the aftermath but now here we are higher than where it started. So the one problem I have with the broader market continues to be by the way we're within half a percent of an all time high in the S and P so obviously the market doesn't care. But these, these intraday moves on big name stocks and big cap names is extraordinary. I mean 8 to 10% moves seemingly two or three times a week and dozens of names where the vix below now 16 so the single Stock volatility is there obviously the broader market volatility is not.

[Guy Adami]

I just think that the bounce we had last week was so powerful. Forget Carter's right. I mean 26% on Amazon and Microso interesting. They both made this exact same move. But I'm talking about that bounce off the 100 day which is really where they bounced back in March where they continue to bounce. And it's been very, very vociferous. I mean really if you think about the biggest companies in the world and also semiconductors, I think you can still be in that semi straight. I just think there are different pieces to it. Nvidia was very interesting today. Nvidia certainly relative to itself had the kind of a move today that you want. We also combine that with manufacturing data that I realize has been a little bit lumpy. There's been a lot of pull forward dynam there's been but you know Datacenter is a big part of this too. Best manufacturing numbers in four years. Suddenly we're on a seven month trend in terms of manufacturing that's almost on a tear. We have payroll numbers on Friday that I think if they're decent. The story for the broader economy right now is that I think you've got the underpinnings of a market. Underpinnings for the market that is allowing the broadening and we haven't even gotten to retail yet. And as was referenced there's a couple names we're going to talk about that are quietly moving.

[Courtney Garcia]

Yeah and I think when you look at the markets, the S and P and the Dow are near their all time highs but the NASDAQ still has some room to grow go here. And I think that's just pointing out that there is some room for this trade to continue to rotate into because that has not been one of your best performers this year. And I think you are going to see some of that catch up trade continue to happen. So I do think these are going to continue to do well. But I don't know if you want to get out of these other areas. You absolutely want to still be in them moving forward. But that trade people are going to catch up to it. As you're seeing these earnings come out and they are supporting that capex that's out there least for certain companies and if that is going to justify the earnings.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter, how are you feeling about Nvidia?

[Carter Braxton]

Well, so in a way your cake and eat it too. So the great one, let's call it that because that's what it has been for so long has been the one that has not participated for the better part of 18 months. And so do you go for the high flyers that crash down 30, 40, 50% that can give you the ricochet or do you favor something like this, which was always the premium supreme name that has been a laggard a dollar for the past 18 months. My preference is to pick in video. If one were doing that choice.

[Melissa Lee]

I think that is the first time that the word dollar has been used on fast. But it is, it is a fine word that should be used more often.

[Guy Adami]

Carter gives us a lot of, a lot of good vernacular in terms.

[Melissa Lee]

Yes. And calls, by the way.

[Guy Adami]

Yes.

[Melissa Lee]

Is there a theme that can be applied to all of these big moves that we've. You can say that the earnings story has come through and that, you know, Microsoft and Amazon have shown that you can spend and there's a pathway to profitability and that clears away for the likes of an Alphabet and Google, etc. Or you can say on a valuation basis relative to the other parts of the trade, these, these stocks were relatively cheaper. Lump in video in there and now we're seeing money go back there.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I don't know if there's that.

[Melissa Lee]

Well, as opposed to the momentum kind

[Tim Seymour]

of theme for me is this continued sort of again, the volatility in single stocks that I have not seen since we've been starting to do the show. And these are not small biotech stocks. I mean these are significant companies. And now it's been going on for a couple of months. So that to me is the overriding theme. But what appears to be going on now is people look at Microsoft and Tim's point says we, we don't want to be behind the eight ball here. They've clearly figured it out. There's, there's an, there's sort of a reemergence of growth here and we don't want to get caught waiting for it to come back to us. So that's why the chase is on. But as Carter just pointed out correctly now you have two huge gaps in the chart on the downside. Mr. Softie.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, let's get an earnings alert here on Palantir which is surging in the after session. The company sale past earnings and revenue estimates are. Seema Modi chatted exclusively with CEO Alex Karp earlier. She joins us now with the details.

[Seema Modi]

Sima Melissa first to earnings. The key takeaway is that Palantir's commercial business is taking off up nearly 150% year over year. While government sales surged about 90% as the war with Iran continues. But feeling commercial is Palantir's artificial intelligence platform, CEO Alex Karp continues to double down on his criticism of the Frontier Air Labs, arguing that enterprise should not be forced to give up their intellectual property to work with the Frontier Labs. Instead, Karp says enterprises want to control the weights of their model and work with companies like his that offer an application layer that sits on the top of a company stack.

[Alex Karp]

What you see in both the sovereign demand for our product, the product offering, our alliances both compute all the way up, including helping to open up the world to being receptive to open weight models and their fine tuning beginning to fine tune these models. So the models work at Frontier is a business unlike any other business that is poised to grow with these margins and with this revenue growth for another 18 months.

[Seema Modi]

Anthropic and OpenAI have said over the last month that customer data is secure and is not used to train their models, but Karp isn't buying it. He also doesn't blame the Chinese open source players for distilling or replicating the Frontier Labs. Listen in.

[Alex Karp]

How do you think the models got their value? They distilled all the value of IP everywhere, including enterprise everywhere. Like we're in a battle here. Those things have to work. There's only one way for them to work ethically and that's called an application layer. On the back of your own compute where you control the model, there's a way to get it. It's not the only way, but the best way to do it is you buy Palantir, you install it, you have us do it now.

[Seema Modi]

Karp was the first executive to take direct aim at OpenAI anthropic on CNBC in early July, blasting their token struct his comments igniting a fiery fairy debate, but also self serving with a pivot to open source helping Palantir's business. But again it's reflected in that commercial pop that we saw in revenue. Stock is up about 10% as the conference call is underway.

[CDW Advertiser]

Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Yep, Seema, thank you. Seema Modi. Fascinating. I mean Al Karp is always an interesting interview, but what do you make of these results? Again, a huge move for stock, double digit percent.

[Guy Adami]

Well on the move. This was a stock though that had underperformed the S and P by 40% from March into the lows and even into this print, down by 32%. So now Alex is very outspoken, he's very sure of his business and he should be year over year, second quarter sales up 149%. I mean they blew away the numbers that had been expected. I think the term he used was outer worldly, which is now another maybe might have been the first time was mentioned on our show too.

[Tim Seymour]

I don't know, guy, I didn't use it.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, well you should. But I think it's a case where the valuation is very difficult. But. But Palantir is so well situated within both the US government contracts and some enterprise. The thing that's the worry here is what he's talked about and other countries have talked about. Europe is scrambling. It's a sovereignty issue. They could be boxed out of a lot of other parts of the world for those sovereignty issues. And I think that's something that the market might discount them on.

[Tim Seymour]

What is the game we play at the beginning of the year with the letters and stuff, acronyms?

[Melissa Lee]

This is the P and your hope trade. Remember this is like three years ago

[Tim Seymour]

though, maybe even longer.

[Melissa Lee]

Maybe longer.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah. And one of my thesis was that at some point they're going to get away from government contracts and get in the middle. Small businesses, mid and small businesses. And now if you look at the mix, it's 5050 now, government and commercial. Good for them. As Tim just mentioned, the problem is valuation. But it's a good quarter and the setup was good. I mean the stock had been selling off since October. So how much is left in it? Well, given what we saw in Microsoft, maybe another 15 or 20%.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I mean the valuation challenge, it's like an 86 forward P E even with decline. I mean, that's crazy.

[Courtney Garcia]

Yeah, I mean they have really impressive growth in earnings here. And even after these numbers here, I think that that could potentially justify it. But the question is, is it going to continue to grow as fast as it has? And that's what people have been questioning really for this category as a segment. And that's why it's really been underperforming the markets. But now it's the show me story. And as you're seeing these earnings come out, they are proving why that they should be valued that way. And I think that specifically which guy pointed out here, the fact that they're growing in commercial, not just government, is a really good sign for them. And I think you want to watch that moving.

[Melissa Lee]

It's not just revenue growth, it's also total deal value on commercial, which should surpass analysts expectations. Carter, what was your take on. On Palantir's chart?

[Ben Emmons]

Right.

[Carter Braxton]

Well, of course, just as you all referred down some 4850% from its peak of November at 207 and change. And so the indication here at 139 versus today's close at 125, there's a level that matters, at least by my work which is where the 150 day moving average comes into play. And that's around 144 again indicated at 139. I would think it gets a little bit higher. 144, 145. And that's where one might want to harvest if one is a short term trader.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. At least for now. I mean does Microsoft and palantir combined the two plus we had, you know, pretty good results from ServiceNow. And does that all lay the foundation?

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, IGV, absolutely. I mean if you, if you want to play the ETF game, that's the place to be. And where to close it, like 94 and a half or 95 I'd have to look but 97 and change. Wow. So I think one the mid one teens of 115 to 118, I think that's where it's at it more on

[Melissa Lee]

the big tech trade and the market. Let's bring Cathy Entwistle, managing director and private wealth advisor at Morgan Stanley. Kathy, great to see you.

[Cathy Entwistle]

Great to see you too.

[Courtney Garcia]

Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

So it's interesting because everybody is in a tizzy thinking that Kevin Warsh is going to raise rates. You think that there's nothing happening and you're actually positioning, you're looking forward to next year and your base case is a cut.

[Cathy Entwistle]

Yes, we are thinking that at Morgan Stanley. So I would say that everyone's talking about, you know, this raise. We don't think that's going to happen this year. We think it will stay pretty neutral. And even when you see what's just been happening over the weekend or since last week, hike with growth stocks, people piling back in, looking at the opportunity for, you know, opportunities there. And then also with energy oil taking a hit, it could be another indication that perhaps we will not actually get another rate hike. So I would look into next year and think about specifically even cash. Cash is like a variable asset, right. It's a variable rate in terms of it's going to change very quickly. So we want to get ahead of the game and get people that have money that's supposed to be for longer term needs into longer term investments before that changes.

[Melissa Lee]

So longer term investments like what?

[Cathy Entwistle]

Well I mean longer term investors. Yeah, long duration. Longer duration for cash. We also like Value, you know, cash flows, great balance sheets, long term investing, things like that. In terms of, you know, we just had this whole conversation about AI and we're thinking AI infrastructure is sort of getting more mature and now we're looking for the companies that can monetize. And I think that's also why we're seeing some of these software type cloud owning companies coming back into play and also the discount.

[Courtney Garcia]

Now Kathy, I'm curious what your take is with the steepening of the yield curve. So even if there are cuts here which could affect the shorter term end of the curve, how do you guys view the longer term end of the curve which can affect things like your housing market and mortgage rates and things like that? Like will that come down also? What's your view there?

[Cathy Entwistle]

Yeah, unfortunately I would like to say that it is coming down, but I think we're getting to a new normal and really the inter, you know, intermediate sort of part of the curve is probably the best place to place clients, you know, fixed income or duration assets. And in terms of the individual, individual investor, I still think there needs to be some kind of relief for these first time home buyers and things like that. The mortgage rates might go back to what the norm was back in, I don't know, the 90s or so, where it was more like a 6%.

[Tim Seymour]

You got to be getting questions about SpaceX going into it and I guarantee you're getting it now. Talk about SpaceX.

[Cathy Entwistle]

Technically I can't speak about individual stocks.

[Discover Advertiser]

However.

[Cathy Entwistle]

However I can speak about IPOs and things like that. So I would say, you know, traditionally we have seen wealth creation during the IPO or right immediately following. But in the last few years we've seen a transition, a shift and that's in the private market space where value is created early on and you have to be a private investor to participate in that. Now what can happen is you'll go to the ipo, you won't see that wealth creation right up front. But I would say if you have a long term view of a company or a sector, you should either buy at the dip, maybe not be part of the ipo. If you're a long term investor, maybe wait until you see a little bit of a pullback and go in or just say at the end of the day I, you know, it's going to fluctuate in price and when you can go in as it drops, hopefully you get, you know, points to purchase.

[Melissa Lee]

Are you hearing from clients, for instance, that may have had exposure to these, you know, high flying IPOs, well known headline grabbing IPOs like a SpaceX or Jersey Mike's that are down, that they've gotten bitter over the IPO process.

[Cathy Entwistle]

I see two kinds of investors, really. There's the ones that are going in for the fast money and there's the ones that are there for the long haul because they really want to own that company. So I've had conversations with different clients over the years with IPOs that they're interested in and they will say, no, I want to hold it because I want to hold this for a long period of time. And you think back to a lot of the early stage technology companies 20 years ago, we've seen incredible growth in wealth. So sometimes there's opportunities for trades and sometimes there's opportunities for long term thinking. And you have to find that balance.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Kathy, you got to leave it there. Good to see you. Thank you. Thank you, Kathy. So, well, what do you think?

[Guy Adami]

The cleansing of the Mag 7 is interesting and part of what we talked about. And I think this is, it's important because I think there are clients out there that actually they saw the types of moves in matter, they saw the types of moves in some of the other names and it's like, hey, should we be doing something here? I think, I think those instincts have been obviously right, but I think people don't want to get too far away from these trades. The IPO market and Space X was such a unique story in terms of where, you know, people are playing the long game there. But this is something that, you know, the question about the valuation was so difficult going into that IPO that it's hard to say, I told you so. It just feels like there was room to wait and there will be those IPOs that you have to own. But the wasn't one.

[Tim Seymour]

We play the game. If I told you this, what would. And if you'd said to me, Space X is going to break price in a week and be trading either side of $105, what's the broader market? I'd be like, it's broader markets getting smoked because it was such a consumer sentiment thing in terms of what people were focused on. And it has not played out that way at all. And if you look at what's going up with Open Air and some of the other names, they're not coming public this year. Market doesn't seem to care.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Boeing catches a tailwind. The FAA green light. That censure soaring today. And why one Wall street firm just flipped from bear to bull Plus a retail reawakening. The big moves breathing life into the sector today and whether the rally is more room to run. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money is back into

[Fast Money Announcer]

this is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc.

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Boeing soaring 8% on two bullish catalysts. First, analysts at BNP Paribas upgrading the stock to outperform from underperform. Boosting the price target to $300 from 230. The FAA also certifying Boeing 737 Max 7 plane, the smallest model in the 737 line. The move following almost a decade of delays tied to deadly crashes of the company. Max 8 model is this the bee in Timbo? No, it's not.

[Guy Adami]

It has been much like Guy looking back on years gone, hopes gone by. This was. This might have been the B and bicep.

[Melissa Lee]

Bicep, yes.

[Guy Adami]

Yes. You know, but. But I do think the max 7 approval is an Important moment sentiment wise. I think it's very important also tailwind wise, I guess pun intended, I don't know. But it's less about these upgrades today. It's more about a company economy that does seem to be on the right side of the regulatory environment. And I realize that could change. But remember this has been such a long term thing and the company has been looking for some guidance. I don't know that the investor community has been waiting for this. I think the analyst community actually likes it. I do think it's a case of free cash flow once again with Boeing. I do think this is a company that will surprise to the upside. I do think that the rerating that's going on in the airline industry could be played upon what's going on on the industrial side.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, free cash flow. Tim, Nell and I think they reported on the 28th or so and the quarter suggested exactly that. So you rarely was a double upgrade. You don't see that that often.

[Guy Adami]

Very like a double secret or. Yeah, probation.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, secret probation.

[Guy Adami]

Double secret probation of course is what

[Tim Seymour]

happened to that does not know that

[Guy Adami]

the fraternity in Animal House they were put on devil secret probation.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, I didn't expect you to know that. By the way, with that said, you don't. You rarely see it, but this one's justified. So they've been getting in their own way now for the last five or six year. Boeing finally they seem to getting out of their own way. I think this is the right move.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean it's interesting you mentioned the earnings before. They were mixed results. It's not like the double upgrade came on the back of gangbusters results. And it was like right afterwards sort of a delay and it wasn't clear that this was going to be a double upgrade candidate out of earnings.

[Courtney Garcia]

Yeah, but I think this has been a story people have wanted to see for so long that there has been a turnaround. This is a duopoly. They should eventually come back up to speed here. But they have just had setback after setback and I think we've had a long enough period here where that turnaround is getting believed. And I think that's what those double upgrades are showing is that people are actually really getting behind this story. And I think that's a good sign.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter, are you behind the chart?

[Carter Braxton]

Yeah. I mean just as you all have articulated as something that's gone nowhere, done nothing has sort of been non participatory. In fact it's the exact same level it was in August of 2021. The stock was around $230 then, and here we are at 233. I think it's an excellent kind of thing to have in a book rather than just having only high flyers that are working and then all of a sudden crashing and all of the things that are in the news. It's always good to double back, find something like this that's sort of off the radar, that hasn't participated and favor it. And so I would all right, there's

[Melissa Lee]

a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Fast Money Announcer]

Retail Therapy Investors flocking back into the discretionary trade. What's driving big, big gains in names like Target and Macy's? And which stocks should you add to your shopping cart? Plus, a yen intervention inside the historic move to prop up Japan's currency and the potential ripple effects on stocks, bonds and beyond. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money, a rally in the retail space today with the XRT ETF up almost 2%, closing near its highest level in nearly five years. Among the big winners, Abercrombie and Fitch, with its best day since November. Long struggling. Target also higher, closing at Its best level since November 2024 and Macy's gaining 5% today. The stock ending the day near more than 4 year highs. Once upon a time you had Macy's.

[Guy Adami]

I did and it might have been in the ME trade, I don't know but there's no question it's a name that I've owned at different times. And I was looking at my screens today and it jumped out because ultimately what has really changed to Macy's, their addressable market hasn't really changed. The margin profile has. And this is a company that has figured out how to operate in this declining department department store space but also with their online business and also their real estate value and a much better balance sheet. So I think this is indicative of where the market is looking for consumer names. Going into retail earnings with a consumer that is better. Macy's is not expensive. It's probably trading sub kind of eight times and I think he can go higher on this one.

[Melissa Lee]

How are you feeling about Macy's Carter or retail in general?

[Carter Braxton]

Well, starting with the XRP which you mentioned, I mean it's slowly poking its head up now, well below its all time high of 2021. But I think the bias is up here and I would be long that particular instrument XRT Macy's fine, closed around 25, 26 that I'd play for 28.

[Cathy Entwistle]

Yeah.

[Courtney Garcia]

And I think what this does is it challenges the idea that the consumer is falling apart. They're clearly holding in, I think better than people have been getting giving them credit for. But you do want to be selective of names here because people are being choosy of where they spend their money. So just looking at this like for example Macy's is up 14% since the beginning of the year. Take a name like lululemon is down 40%. So I think you just really want to look at where you're spending your money. I wouldn't look at this as a sector on its whole, but I think there's names that will work here. And I also like the idea that you're seeing names like this working alongside the trade is just again indicative that this is a broad market rally. And that's what I like to see.

[Tim Seymour]

The turnaround in Target as Tim has talked about is clearly that is. Is it this year.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, I was, wow, good to be on time. Right. This one, you know you got this

[Tim Seymour]

one called because I mean the stock's up 80 something percent since the lows which is amazing. They don't report their off cycle. August 19th it probably continues to rally because it's broken a downtrend. It's been in place since the summer of 2021. So good on Target, as they say.

[Guy Adami]

I also think because Wal Mart had taken so much oxygen out of the room and I think Wal Mart and I'm reading reports from the Street, Wolf had a note where they said they actually think that same store sales could be a little messier than think you have a dynamic here where they're moving in two different directions in terms of the trends on same store sales and the overall merchandising mix. And I think giving room to other names because Wal Mart is such a massive name and it's, it's been everybody's favorite stock, not so much.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Carter, quick on Wal Mart.

[Carter Braxton]

Well, I mean to Tim's point, it's not just Wal Mart, it's Wal Mart. It's Costco, it's tjx. The three biggest winners of all. It's just the same circumstances in the market overall, the winners, the high flyers are under pressure, its rotation and people are doubling back and finding laggards and trying to play them.

[Mazda Advertiser]

All right.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, the next move for Japan, why the US Just swooped in to bolster the long struggling yen and the major implications it could have for markets. That's money's back right after this.

[Fast Money Announcer]

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks in rally mode to start the week, the dow rising nearly 700 points to record, close to close up records, excuse me, The S and P gaining a percent and a half. The Nasdaq rose over 2%. Exxon and Chevron lower after President Trump said the company has made, quote, too much money on high oil prices tied to the Iran war. Both companies reported profit windfalls in their latest quarters. Exxon ending down just a quarter of a percent while chevron fell nearly 2%. And some stocks on the move after reporting in the last hour on semi surging after topping estimates, saying it expects a datacenter revenue to more than double this year. Whirlpool dropping after missing estimates and cutting full year guidance citing an updated interest expense outlook. And SNAP soaring after revenues and daily active users came in ahead of expectations. You can watch by the way, SNAP CEO Evan Spiegel in a CNBC exclusive interview tomorrow morning, 8:10am Eastern Time time on Squawk Box. I didn't want to go to oil because you said last week that for sure all these companies would have Targets on their backs because of their strong quarterly report.

[Tim Seymour]

Yes. When we got right and it was pretty, I thought over the weekend you'd hear it on the weekend shows, but you heard it from the president directly again, talking about how well these companies are doing. And I'm saying vilifying, but saying we need to get prices down. So I think the stocks were definitely in the crosshairs. By the way. The quarters were really, really strong, long. I think these stocks should continue to go higher. But for a couple of days at least, you can see what the problem is going to be.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, he singled out Chevron and its CEO Mike Worth saying, oh, well, you should be thankful to President Trump and the great administration.

[Guy Adami]

Venezuela.

[Melissa Lee]

Venezuela.

[Guy Adami]

And I guess what's, what's fascinating here is a political base that's very supportive of these oil companies. So it's, it's, you know, this is, this is politics and this is how you have to play it. And ultimately it's not a reason to run away from the oil companies. That free cash flow dynamic that was well beyond high expectations is something I think you can still invest behind. I think they continue to rerate.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter, would you rather integrated or refiners right now?

[Carter Braxton]

Well, the refiners are pretty darn stretch. I'd rather go after Exxon or Chevron.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean, that was very succinct.

[Melissa Lee]

It's good. Yeah.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean, he could have played it up a little bit.

[Cathy Entwistle]

It.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, Mel, since you're asking me to play the game, which I enjoy, he

[Melissa Lee]

doesn't engage in such no Tom foolery.

[Tim Seymour]

I know this.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, let's, let's get to the yen strengthening today after the US Stepped in to buy the Japanese currency over the weekend. It was the first intervention since 1998. The yen hit its lowest levels in almost 40 years last week. For more on the ripple effects of the move, Fed Watch Advisors founder and CIO Ben Emmons joins us now. Ben, great to see you.

[Cathy Entwistle]

Good.

[Ben Emmons]

See you. Mel was good.

[Melissa Lee]

Beyond it was a coordinated intervention, which, which maybe is more important. And I'm wondering how long you think this works for.

[Ben Emmons]

Yeah, that is actually an open question because, you know, this is the first time they do coordinated. And as I looked at the data, there was a big spike in yen volume on Thursday. But on Friday, the euro volume, which the treasury traded in was actually really low or nothing. So my guess is they're going to come back with more now. They're going to try to push this yen a little lower. And I got to note that the Yen is hovering just above 155 to the dollar, which is a pretty key technical support from since 2022 move. So I think that they're going to try to break through that and that could give us a little bit more rally in this yen. Now we know what happened two years ago in August of 2024 when Yen strength led to this carry unwind, this carry yen carry unwind. So you have to watch that too because if you're getting more squeeze on the end down more stronger yen, then that carry trade comes to play.

[Guy Adami]

Ben, Tim, what's a more powerful force for the BOJ and the political cycle at home in Japan? Is it inflation that clearly is in Japan and something that is starting to bite the consumer, or is it the fact that it's been such a tailwind for Japanese exporters? The Japanese stock market is one of the best players performers in the world. I'm very long Japan. I would be concerned about an overly significant move in the appreciation.

[Ben Emmons]

Yeah, I think that's right, Tim, because it has been a major tailwind and they've been very careful with raising rates now also because the banking system sits in so many JGBs, there's a lot of risk there. And then this inflation picture in the meantime is accelerating and they are relying on almost 90% of their energy inputs from the Strait of Hormuz. So I think what we're dealing with here is that this is maybe the compromise, get the yen somewhat stronger to the, to the dollar and the euro, but not such extent that it affects their export machine or their banking system for that matter. So I think once the yen sort of like peters out, which is going to happen with these interventions, this is actually a buy, right? The Nikkei becomes interesting. That's kind of traded off from the high. I think there will be an opportunity

[Tim Seymour]

and treasury getting involved suggests everybody realizes this problem. I would say all read all roads lead to gold on the back of this. Any thoughts on that?

[Ben Emmons]

Yeah, it would be, it would be a difficult road here, Guy, because you know the history of interventions, even the coordinated ones, you know, at some point the market knows like that they're in the market. So it doesn't have much surprise element. If you look at this data, they have something like 1-1/2 trillion of a war chest, if you will. But that would include also selling Treasuries. So there's a limit to how much they can do. So the only way they can actually get the yen really materially down would be a peg on, on the, on the yen and that, that is, that requires like a really significant policy commitment on both sides which I don't think will happen. So I think the yen intervention will be with us for the next sort of week to two weeks but then it fades off.

[Melissa Lee]

There's some talk Ben, that there is beyond what happened recently that in September there will be coordinated central bank action that both will hike. Do you believe that's going to happen? We're going to see both banks hike rates.

[Ben Emmons]

So that's interesting dynamic now because the bank of Japan will raise rates again. They've signaled that. But we know with the Fed what's happening so we don't know exactly about that. If they both do that then you're not going to see much of a yen strength from here. I mean if anything I think the dollar would actually rally more on, on a Fed hike given what's happening with our economy and you know what happened last Wednesday and the way interest rates reacted to the press conference. So I think it's a, it's a interesting way of thinking about it. My guess is that they will stay coordinated to an extent but it actually puts the yen some sort of a range. Once they hike both, my guess is we're going to end up somewhere in the 150 to 155 range on the dollar yen if they both hike interest rates.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Ben, good to see you. Thank you. Emmons of Fed Watch. By the way, be sure to catch Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant on squawk box. That's tomorrow 7:30am Eastern time right here on CNBC. So I'm sure he'll get a lot of questions about this intervention coordinated action. At what point do you start getting concerned about your Japanese stockholders holdings?

[Guy Adami]

Well, I think somewhere kind of around 154. There's some levels there that I think would would really trigger next level down or strengthening of the yen. I do think Japan, Japan is certainly still considered an export economy. I think the Japanese banks would be most exposed here and I do think that there's a credit dynamic at some point. All of this should though help the rates dynamic and what we've seen with JGB yields is they've been moving, moving in the other direction of the currency that's been depreciating. So that would take some pressure off the banks.

[Melissa Lee]

What do you see in Japan, Carter?

[Carter Braxton]

Well, I mean the sell off is sort of in the same time frame as it was the Nikkei sell off as the Cosby, the Taiwan Stock Exchange, the US SOX index and so forth. But it was the most sort of mild of all, dropping only 17% where those others have dropped much more. My hunch is to play the Nikkei for a bounce here.

[Courtney Garcia]

And I think when you look at markets today, you're seeing oil down and rates are down, which markets are liking. But what this does risk is that there has to be Treasuries that are sold off in order to support this, which could potentially send rates higher. And I think that's one of the concerns here which would put into question your longer duration assets. So I don't think we're there yet, but I think that's why you need to watch this.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, a screaming biotech buy. The technical signals that have the chartmaster turning bullish on Amgen and the key levels for investors to watch when fast money returns. Welcome back. Shares of Amgen down ahead of its earnings report tomorrow afternoon. Shares of the biotech hit a record on Thursday and the trimaster says there are more gains to come. Carter, what do you see?

[Carter Braxton]

Well, let's, let's get right to it. So I have five charts, four daily and then one long term. So here is Amgen's chart with no judgments. Let's go ahead and annotate it in first iteration of three more. It's all very symmetrical, right? The sell off since March 2, the recovery right back to the level from which the sell off occurred. And here we are trading exactly at the former high. Another way to draw the lines, just to reiterate just how remarkably similar the recovery has been to the preceding seller. Literally the same number of days, weeks, hours down and then right back up. The sort of technical way to draw it. Next chart would be whether you call it an ascending wedge or an ascending triangle, this setup more often than not is resolved higher where you come away from a peak return to it. And then that's what a breakout candidate is. Final chart. This is a long term and These are perfectly mathematical 45 degree lines. The stock has ascended north by northeast, higher, steadily higher, never getting extended for the past 10 years just to get to that upper boundary is about 412 and that's a nice sort of 8, 9% move from here. And we think it's right to be long into earnings guy.

[Tim Seymour]

They have $6 billion drugs. I mean, valuations definitely not a concern. If there is a concern, it comes in the form of that trend which we're at the upper end of and the fact that of the 35 analysts that cover it, the average price targets about 358 which is obviously lower than we are now. So this would be a classic breakout. You need them absolutely to crush on the revenue side, which I think they're capable of doing. We've seen it before. I think they've beaten revenue 18 the last 20 quarters and I think they've beaten EPS 60 in the last 20. So it's poised for this type of move.

[Melissa Lee]

By the way, there's a lot of pharma earnings out this week in particular Lilly, Novo, Merck, Pfizer.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, and Pfizer for sure. Looking for that catalyst, I would just go also to even a biogen which is the B in Timbo. That's the B has a similar as a similar chart. Lookembe is a catalyst. It's certainly been a catalyst to upgrades. I think you look at what's going on in the pharma space today, there was a big at least a lot of noise around AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers and certainly didn't behave well for AstraZeneca stock, which I am long.

[Alex Karp]

So.

[Guy Adami]

So there is some talk and we've talked about this a lot. There's a lot of money in pharma M and A biotech for sure.

[Courtney Garcia]

Yeah, I think that AstraZeneca news was a big headline today because you're seeing a lot of M and A in this space as they're really having to buy up for their next leg of growth here and I think you're going to continue to see that. So especially on these earnings reports, I think you want to start to listen to what's next year coming up.

[Melissa Lee]

Transports trucking higher inside the stocks leading the group this year and whether the latest bounce is just a pit stop or the start of a longer rally. Rally more fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast money. Airline stocks taking off today. Frontier, Alaska, United and American taking off after President Trump backed down from further strikes in Iran. Cruise lines also sailing higher. Norwegian Cruise line rising nearly 6%. Carnival and Royal Caribbean also seeing a boost today. The moves helping the train transports which have quietly been outperforming the rest of the market this year. The group's 18% gain handily beating the broader industrial sector and more than doubling the performance of the S and P. Tim, you flagged this one.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, it's a lot more than the S and P. In fact, it's probably a three bagger to the S and P. And last week was a particularly bad week for transports, obviously in the early part of the week as oil prices went higher, we know the impact there for airlines and related. But it's the Rails that were big underperformers. And honestly it's, it's. There was some bad earnings, but ultimately I think the whole group got taken down. There's some rotation. I think you go back into that trade. I do think that the numbers there have been fantastic. And I like the Rails and the airlines.

[Tim Seymour]

UPS. I'm sorry, real quick. UPS reported that stocks trailed off 7%. It had had a big move into earnings. But I think the pullback. You got to buy it. I think valuation is still compelling here and I think analysts probably offsides. I think UPS goes higher.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter, what in transports you like?

[Carter Braxton]

Well, rails a little stretch. Of course. It's a price weighted index. Right. So Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific are almost 20% of the entire Dow Jones transportation. Those two. I think they're extended. I would double back and favor things like airlines here.

[Courtney Garcia]

Yeah. And I think this again, it's a really good sign of the broader economy you're seeing that things are moving right now, which is exactly what you want to see. And I do think this is something you want to be into, especially if you see geopolitical risk is coming down here, which it is. That will again improve the space even more. So. So I think you absolutely want to be in here.

[Melissa Lee]

And guy's a doubt theorist. So he likes this move.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, Charles and I went to school together, so I was very proud of him when he came up with that. Rest in peace.

[Melissa Lee]

Up next, final trades. Rest in peace. Final trade time. Carter Braxton worth of worth charting.

[Carter Braxton]

DJ X has stalled and we think it's in trouble. Wal Mart and Costco are not a place to be for sellers, Timbo.

[Guy Adami]

We've got a couple of weeks till Walmart and Target, but Target, same store sales I think are going to surprise. Second half comps are easy. I think the multiple continues to move higher.

[Melissa Lee]

Courtney ahead of earnings here.

[Courtney Garcia]

I take a look at Caterpillar. It's down almost a quarter from its highs right now. So I think I'd take a look here.

[Tim Seymour]

Mass exodus today. I mean they're jettison menacing players left and right.

[Guy Adami]

Gave him so much time to.

[Tim Seymour]

It's gonna be amazing if they could field a team. Mel was just saying it before.

[Guy Adami]

Look, those are some great moves by the Yankees too. And if you're expecting those three old guys to get back on the playing field anyway, what's your final strike?

[Tim Seymour]

It would be Alibaba, Tim.

[Melissa Lee]

Oh, it's not the bean. Timbo, thanks for watching Fast Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

[Fast Money Disclaimer Narrator]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or in other. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money DISCLAIMER, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer when you partner

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