CNBC’s Fast Money: Turning Sour On Apple… And Single Stock Volatility On The Rise

Episode Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Steve Grasso, Bonawyn Eison, Guy Adami, Katie Stockton
Special Guests: Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Mandy Xu (CBOE)

Episode Overview

This episode centers around mounting concerns and bearish signals for Apple amidst a broader rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks, especially the “MAG7”. The panel discusses whether Apple’s decline represents a significant trend, potential buying or selling opportunities, and the implications for investors. The episode also explores volatility shifting from macro to single-stock names, new political and economic headlines (including the latest on mortgage rates and the Federal Reserve), major moves in GM, agricultural stocks, and developments in biotech and consumer staples.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Apple’s Bearish Technical Setup and Fundamental Risks

• Apple shares fall for a seventh consecutive session, underperforming the MAG7, and technical signals point to more downside.
• Katie Stockton (Fairlead Strategies) highlights intermediate trend deterioration and advises caution.

  “The weekly MACD for one has flipped to a sell signal and that is something that should interrupt the uptrend for more than just a couple of weeks… The next support that we see on Apple’s chart is around 243, 6 to 7% below current levels.” — Katie Stockton [02:13]

• Guy Adami and Steve Grasso agree with the technical damage but cite Apple’s embedded strength in ETFs and its $2.35 billion install base:

  “With passive investing... it’s very hard for Apple to have a material move lower. But with that said a 243 price target from here is significant.” — Guy Adami [03:34]

• Broader concerns include Apple’s lag in AI innovation, valuation, and gross margin pressures from rising memory prices.

2. Debate: Short or Hold Apple?

• Stockton does not advocate shorting Apple near highs, but sees little reason to add exposure now. She notes a more definitive “wait and see” approach is prudent.

  “We actually don’t advocate shorting stocks that are not too far off their highs… but we feel that we are going to see this correction deepen.” — Katie Stockton [03:05]

3. Valuation, Macro, and Rotation to Small/Mid Caps

• Bonawyn Eison frames Apple as a “bond-like compounder” that retains a premium due to its fundamentals and services growth, but is cautious on valuation.
• Panel notes a significant rotation from mega-cap tech into cyclicals and small/mid caps, affecting Apple and peers.

  “The uptrend drawn back to the April low has now been broken. So that makes us wonder if maybe this shift isn’t something that could stay with the market maybe for much of Q1.” — Katie Stockton [07:35]

• Q1 is set up for increased volatility and potentially better entry points in tech.

  “We’re looking for a volatile Q1 and then we’ll see ideally some great buying opportunities.” — Katie Stockton [08:24]

4. Fundamental Bull Case for Apple: Gene Munster’s Take

(Interview starts: [10:30])

• Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management) maintains a bullish long-term case, citing three catalysts:
  • Upcoming earnings beat (December).
  • A major upgrade to Siri (“the most entertaining story in the first half of this year”).
  • Apple’s potential to emerge as a dominant “AI device company”, similar to how Tesla reframed itself with physical AI.

  “There’s just fundamentally an opportunity for a company to be an AI device company… Apple is in a great position to capitalize on that over the next few years.” — Gene Munster [11:28]

• Warns, however, that China exposure is Apple’s Achilles’ heel: 16% of revenue, 45% of products built there.

  “If something goes awry in the trade side, Cook has navigated that… but if there is something bigger geopolitically… Apple’s going to get dragged down. I’m going to be wrong on this.” — Gene Munster [13:00]

• Margins could be at risk from elevated memory costs, but history suggests eventual mean-reversion.

5. Panel Reaction to Bull-Bear Balance

• Bonawyn Eison finds both the bull (Munster) and bear (Stockton) cases balanced, reiterating the China risk overhang and Apple’s resilience as a compounder.
• The panel agrees core fundamentals remain strong, but recommend caution in adding new money until better setups appear.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "When you see 30, 35% of the S&P is these mega cap tech names... that’s why the S&P outperformed a lot of these MAG7 names is that Google and Nvidia outperformed by a large margin."
  — Steve Grasso [08:42]

• "If the fundamental story is a bond-like compounding, do you want to pay low 30s forward for this?"
  — Bonawyn Eison [05:38]

Other Key Segments

6. Political & Economic Headlines

a. President Trump’s Mortgage Rate Maneuver ([16:18])

• Trump proposes using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s reserves to buy $200B in mortgage bonds to lower rates and stimulate housing.

  “It’s an interesting move… this seems to be maybe a twist on QE… using Freddie and Fannie’s cash reserves as a sort of a QE stimulus.” — Amen Javers recap [16:26]

• Panel questions the legality and effectiveness, noting it could be challenged in court and depends on bond market reaction.

b. ACA Tax Credits Extended ([19:23])

• The House passes a three-year extension of ACA tax credits with bipartisan support, a key relief for healthcare stocks and consumers.

7. Sector Moves: Autos, Ag, Biotech, Consumer

a. GM and Ford Take EV Charges, Focus on ICE ([22:29])

• GM takes a $7.1B Q4 charge for EV and China restructuring; Ford’s charges even larger at $19.5B.
• Investors approve of pivot back to profitable ICE models; both stocks near highs.

  “They are prioritizing the high profit in demand vehicles, ICE models primarily that are hot right now and that’s why these shares have been moving higher.” — Phil LeBeau, reporting [24:39]

b. Ag Stocks Rally on Venezuela Trade ([27:47])

• Deere, Bungay, Archer Daniels, Scott's Miracle Grow, and Caterpillar all surge.
• Market expects resumed payments and export growth thanks to US engagement with Venezuela.

  “Now they’re actually going to start getting paid and it could move up to a 50% market share… Now they actually have money to pay for this food.” — Steve Grasso [28:01]

• Panel likes the DBA ETF as a broad ag/commodity play. — Katie Stockton [29:18]

c. Biotech & Patent Cliff ([41:17])

• Merck acquires Sadera Therapeutics; also linked to Revolution Medicines bid as big pharma preps for patent cliffs.
• Panel sees small/mid-cap biotechs as prime potential targets.

  “Watch those micro cap, the smaller cap biotech names. They’re all going to be of interest.” — Steve Grasso [41:52]

d. Constellation Brands’ Post-Earnings Surge ([43:18])

• Constellation Brands (beer) rallies after a surprise beat, but management warns of Hispanic consumer weakness.
• Technicals show relief rally possible, but long-term fears persist as consumers shift to seltzer, spirits, and cannabis beverages.

  “Over 80% of revenues are from beer… beer is sort of the long tail that’s really dying right now.” — Steve Grasso [44:39]

8. Shifting Volatility: Macro to Single-Name Stocks ([32:03])

• Mandy Xu (CBOE) highlights rising single-stock volatility and sector rotations away from tech/MAG7.

  “People are more focused on these idiosyncratic risks.” — Mandy Xu [32:34]

• New “option-based ETFs” provide accessible hedging tools for the public.

• Traditional safe havens like gold are now behaving more like risk assets, reducing their effectiveness as portfolio hedges.

• Gold technicals stay bullish, but silver volatility could signal reversal risk.
  — Katie Stockton [37:22]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Apple Technical Breakdown: [02:13]
• Debate: Sell/Short Apple? [03:05]
• Fundamental bull case for Apple (Gene Munster): [10:30]
• China/macroeconomic risk for Apple: [12:40]
• GM/Ford EV Charges & ICE Pivot: [22:29]
• Ag stocks & Venezuela: [27:47]
• Volatility shift, single stock focus (Mandy Xu): [32:03]
• Biotech patent cliff & M&A: [41:17]
• Constellation Brands earnings: [43:18]

Final Trades Roundup ([45:10])

• Steve Grasso: Shoutout to Serve Robotics and Soundhound (recent successes)
• Katie Stockton: Likes Texas Instruments (TXN) on a short-term breakout in its 5-year range
• Bonawyn Eison: Costco reversing its short-term downtrend
• Guy Adami: SLB Corp (oil services)

Memorable Quotations

• “I think it’s more of a pair of twos than it is a bearish setup.”
  — Bonawyn Eison on Apple [05:38]
• “There’s just fundamentally an opportunity for a company to be an AI device company... Apple is in a great position to capitalize on that over the next few years.”
  — Gene Munster [11:28]

Rare Disease Awareness (CNBC Cures)

• Becky Quick emotionally shares her family’s journey with rare disease, launching CNBC’s new “Cures” initiative and podcast, advocating for research and awareness.

  "One in 10 Americans have a rare disease…" — Melissa Lee [39:40]

Summary

This episode delivers a nuanced, actionable debate on Apple as both technicals and fundamentals are at a crossroads. While technicals point to further pain ahead, Apple’s core strengths keep long-term investors in the game. The panel navigates sector rotations, single-stock volatility, and evolving hedging strategies. Macro headlines—from housing to the Fed—continue to shape markets, but the focus is increasingly on stock-picking and resilient sectors. Powerful personal stories and real-time corporate developments round out the show, making it both informative and resonant for investors of all backgrounds.