CNBC "Fast Money" - 2025 Trading In The Books… And UnitedHealth’s Next Move In The New Year

Air Date: December 31, 2025
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Melissa Lee)
Guests/Panel: Carter Worth, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Karen Feinerman, Halima Croft, Courtney Reagan

Episode Overview

This special New Year’s Eve episode of CNBC’s "Fast Money" takes a deep dive into the market trends and drama of 2025 and looks ahead to big themes for 2026. The roundtable discusses the year’s standout stock, sector, and commodity performances, key moments of volatility, and top actionable ideas for the new year. Special segments highlight oil market risks, retail surprises, Warren Buffett’s retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, and a technical breakdown of UnitedHealth.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025 Market Wrap-Up: Winners, Losers & Trends

[00:46–02:44]

• Major Index Gains: S&P 500 up over 16% with 46 intraday record highs; Nasdaq surges 20%, mostly thanks to AI; 10 of 11 sectors close up for the year; communication services, tech, and industrials are the big outperformers.
• Metals & Crypto: Silver and gold had best years since 1979; oil hit its lowest annual close since 2020; Bitcoin hit a new record ($125k+) but ends the year down 6%.
• Volatility and Commodities Divergence: While stocks surged, commodities and crypto saw mixed results.

"Cheers, by the way, to the year: market rolling out a third year of double digit gains." – Brian Sullivan [00:46]
"Oil though, a different story... oil's worst year since 2020." – Brian Sullivan [02:29]

2. Volatility Outlook & Macro Risks for 2026

[04:01–07:41]

• Volatility Expected: Panelists anticipate more turbulence ahead, with particular attention to the bond market and potential for another 10–15% correction early in 2026.
• Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates: Guy Adami warns that 10-year Treasury yields could hit 4.5%, and that this would raise mortgage rates, impacting housing markets.
• Self-Inflicted vs. Exogenous Corrections: The 2025 correction was unusually self-inflicted (tariffs), with a swift rebound not driven by outside shocks.
• Quick Market Moves: Rapid drawdowns and equally fast recoveries are now the norm, reflecting the era of instant news and algorithmic-driven trading.

"I think we're in for another type of volatility event in 2026... I also think the bond market is something that not enough people are paying attention to." – Guy Adami [04:08]
"We forget though what happened in April... one of the fastest rebounds... are you seeing some kind of... violent drop in the cards next year?" – Brian Sullivan [05:36]
"It doesn’t give you a lot of time to adjust to it ... you have to, I mean it's scary to stay long during those really difficult down periods, but that's what I try to do." – Karen Feinerman [09:56]

3. Breadth, Concentration, and Sector Rotation

[10:36–13:20]

• Stock Picker’s Market? Despite the narrative, 71% of actively managed funds underperformed, showing just how concentrated gains were in a few names.
• Sectors in Focus: Only three S&P sectors outperformed: industrials, tech, telecom; 150 S&P stocks were negative for the year.
• Warning Signs: Heavy concentration is "good until one day it isn’t." When rotations happen, they can be violent.
• Risk in Private Markets: Dan Nathan flags unappreciated pockets of risk in private equity, venture capital, and the ripple effects these can have if forced selling hits public markets.

"It was supposed to be a stock pickers market... 71% of all actively managed mutual funds underperformed this year." – Carter Worth [12:13]
"In the private markets there are pockets of risk and they've been funded by VCs, by private equity, by insurance companies... if things go bad... that's not something I believe is appreciated right now." – Dan Nathan [13:20]

4. Oil Market 2026: Oversupply, Geopolitics & OPEC Moves

[14:41–20:32]

• Oversupply Risks: 2025 was a weak year for oil, primarily due to resilient global supply from the US, Brazil, and Guyana, and an OPEC decision to phase out production cuts.
• Geopolitical Risks: Possible inflection points in Venezuela (potential output changes if Maduro is ousted), Russia (prospect of sanctions removal), and ongoing instability in Nigeria and Iran.
• OPEC’s Limited Options: OPEC may not have much more spare capacity and could be quick to cut production if prices drop further.
• US Producers’ Pain Point: Sub-$50 oil is unsustainable for many US producers and could drive production cuts if it persists.

"What caught a lot of market participants by surprise this year was the OPEC decision... But that came against the backdrop... of very high US production, continued high production out of Guyana, Brazil. So we had plenty of oil this year." – Halima Croft [15:37]
"If we’re holding in like the low 50s for WTI, like that is not a price that works for producers." – Halima Croft [19:05]
"If we were staring down like an appreciably lower price environment, I do believe [Saudis/OPEC] would come back into the market." – Halima Croft [20:14]

5. Retail’s Rollercoaster: Big Winners & Surprising Survivors

[23:07–27:19]

• Tariffs and Consumer Resilience: Despite tariff shocks and sticky prices, retail stocks (XRT) ended positive. Deep-discounters like Five Below, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree soared, while specialty retailers also saw selective rallies.
• Stealth Rallies: Victoria’s Secret rose 200% in six months, Macy’s and Kohl’s benefited from strategic changes.
• Short Squeezes & Leadership Changes: Notable moves in Tapestry, Lululemon, PVH, Target, and others. Changing leadership and turnaround stories key (e.g., Abercrombie & Fitch, up 90% after being "left for dead").
• 2026 Picks: Analysts like Nike, Ralph Lauren, TJX, and Signet. Mixed future for on-holding.

"If you would have told me that would have been the case in April, that retail would be positive at all, I would not have believed you." – Courtney Reagan [23:57]
"Abercrombie and Fitch... It’s up 90% plus off of good earnings, solid earnings, but totally just left for dead with a great balance sheet." – Karen Feinerman [27:15]

6. Warren Buffett Steps Down: The Berkshire Era Closes

[28:27–32:15]

• Buffett’s Legacy: Retiring after 60 years, Buffett’s watch saw a 1.1 million percent return in Berkshire’s A shares; he remains Chairman, with Greg Abel as CEO.
• Timing the Exit: Panel notes he’s leaving "literally at his all time relative peak" compared to S&P 500.
• Cash Pile for Opportunity: Berkshire’s underperformance is blamed on its $370B cash stockpile, but this could prove opportunistic in a market correction.
• Buffett as ‘Bid of Last Resort’: In previous crises, Berkshire’s willingness to deploy capital stabilized markets (e.g., 2008 banks bailout).
• Outlook: The company’s conservative approach is expected to deliver alpha during turbulent periods, as in the past.

"He announced that he was going to stop literally at his all time relative peak... he was sort of ridiculed, right as having missed a lot of this technology AI stuff just as he was in 99 and 2000. We all know how that worked out for him very well." – Carter Worth [29:16]
"So I think there’s a chance that if you see a downturn in the broader market... they will be rewarded if they put it to work at a lower level." – Guy Adami [30:31]
"He’s been the bid of last resort. I mean, I can’t imagine how much money he made on those, you know, warrants and all the stock that he bought in the throes of the financial crisis." – Dan Nathan [31:10]

7. Tech Analysis: UnitedHealth’s Rocky Year—Ready to Rebound?

[33:19–35:26]

• UNH Breakdown: UnitedHealth ended down about 35% (worst Dow performer since 2008). A string of management crises, including serious criminal events, hammered sentiment.
• Technical Take: Carter Worth sees a technical bottom, with a new minor uptrend; if wrong, sideways, but bias is up.
• Risks & Opportunity: If headline risk remains low, there’s potential for share price recovery into Q1 2026, especially with upcoming earnings.

"Down 34, 35%, the worst performing stock in the Dow... I think the lows are in... it has all the elements of reversal." – Carter Worth [33:19]
"In the absence though of bad news... I think you see a levitation in earnings... I think this thing rallies in the early next year." – Guy Adami [34:52]

8. Trading Desk’s 2026 Party Picks

[36:30–39:41]

Each trader shares "stocks ready to party" in 2026:

• Karen Feinerman: Versant (Comcast’s media spin-out): “Quiet ones really party… I think it’s sort of an interesting risk reward. Not a ton of risk.” [36:52]
• Carter Worth: Favors large U.S. banks (BKX) over brokers/investment banks (Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Robinhood) after the latter’s outperformance—believes rotation is due. [38:21]
• Dan Nathan: Likes "consumer internet" names left for dead—Spotify, Netflix, Uber, Snap, Pinterest—as possible comeback stories. [39:04]
• Guy Adami: Energy (XLE ETF): "Has been trading sideways since the fall of 2022… I think we will [break out] in 2026." [39:26]

9. IPO Market Recap & Outlook

[40:42–42:49]

• 2025 Rebound: 200+ IPOs (most since 2021; $44B raised), but performances mixed. Standouts: Circle, Core (rallied then faded); Klarna, Venture Global (fell).
• 2026 Outlook: Big “unicorn” listings still elusive; anticipation surrounds SpaceX and other giant debuts. Panelists warn that hyped-up mega-IPOs can disappoint after launch (e.g., Facebook, Uber, Saudi Aramco).
• Banks vs. Listings: Banks benefit via fees, but not guaranteed winners for investors. Nasdaq is highlighted as an underappreciated play as more companies list.

“For me, what the big challenges in 2026 for the IPO market is can they bring these massive market caps? We’ve never seen it before. If they can’t bring the big ones, they’re not going to be able to bring a lot of these small ones.” – Dan Nathan [41:15]
“Often though, those super giant ones, like maybe a Space X or something like that, are so hyped up, but by the time they actually come… very mediocre.” – Karen Feinerman [41:16]

10. Final Trades (Top Actionable Ideas for 2026)

[44:03–44:32]

• Karen Feinerman: Amazon ("Should trade at a higher multiple than Walmart"), also likes Rivian for a bullish reversal.
• Carter Worth: Snap—bearish to bullish technical reversal.
• Dan Nathan: Snap—expects an "AI moment" next year.
• Guy Adami: Devon Energy (DVN)—energy remains a favorite sector.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Swift Market Moves:

  "We have three months of decline in three weeks and then maybe we bounce back just as quickly." – Brian Sullivan [09:30]

• On Oil’s Worst Year:

  "Oil having one of its worst years in years. Down about 20%. American oil output is at a record high, inventory globally they’re up.” – Brian Sullivan [14:41]

• Buffett's Impact:

  "His all time peak in terms of performance as an asset compared to other things was in October of 08 into early 09. That was the top." – Carter Worth [31:45]

• Karen on Buying Opportunities:

  "When it’s super scary, when the VIX goes as high as we've seen, like 55 or 60 or something like that, as difficult as it is, then it’s time to buy." – Karen Feinerman [09:56]

Timestamps by Segment

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------- |------------------------| | 2025 Market Wrap-Up | 00:46–04:01 | | Outlook for 2026 / Volatility Discussion | 04:01–09:56 | | Market Breadth & Risks | 10:36–13:20 | | Oil Market & Macro Risks | 14:41–20:44 | | Retail Sector Recap | 23:07–27:19 | | Warren Buffett/Berkshire Discussion | 28:27–32:22 | | UnitedHealth Technicals & Outlook | 33:19–35:26 | | Trader Picks for 2026 | 36:30–39:41 | | IPO Market Recap | 40:42–42:49 | | Final Trades | 44:03–44:32 |

Summary Table: Trader Party Stock Picks for 2026

| Trader | 2026 "Ready to Party" Pick(s) | |-------------------|-------------------------------| | Karen Feinerman | Versant (Comcast media spin), Amazon, Rivian, Abercrombie & Fitch | | Carter Worth | Rotation to large US banks (favor BKX over brokers) | | Dan Nathan | Spotify, Netflix, Uber, Snap, Pinterest | | Guy Adami | XLE (energy ETF), Devon Energy (DVN) |

Episode Takeaways

• 2025 brought sizable stock gains, with record highs powered by AI and tech, but narrow breadth and increasing risks below the surface.
• Bond market and macro risks are a focus for 2026; expect volatility and rotations.
• Commodities and oil face oversupply, but geopolitical wildcards remain.
• Retail shocked skeptics with select breakouts; 2026 could see more if consumer strength holds.
• Berkshire faces a new era post-Buffett, but its huge cash stockpile could make it a big winner in the next correction.
• UnitedHealth seen as technically ripe for a rebound following a brutal year.
• Panelists’ top ideas for 2026 focus on neglected tech, financials rotation, energy, and turnaround candidates.
• IPO window is open, but skepticism remains about mega-listings outperforming after debut.

Listeners can walk away with a comprehensive sense of how 2025 unfolded across markets—and where opportunity and caution both lie heading into 2026. The traders’ candid, occasionally humorous banter keeps things lively, but the actionable insights and hard-won skepticism shine throughout.