CNBC Fast Money – January 9, 2026

Episode Theme:
This episode of Fast Money dives deep into two major market-moving themes: a sharp revival in the housing sector as mortgage rates hit three-year lows, and Meta’s headline-grabbing 20-year nuclear energy deal to power its AI-driven data center expansion. The roundtable examines the ramifications for home affordability, the way forward for stocks in related sectors, and critical updates in energy, tech, and weight loss pharma. Politics, policy, and innovation are woven throughout, reflecting how investors are digesting new developments under the Trump administration and a changing global economic landscape.

Main Discussion Points

1. Housing Market Revival & Mortgage Rate Drop

Mortgage rates fall to 5.99%, lowest in nearly 3 years (01:02–06:28)
- Triggered by the Trump administration's announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds.
- Immediate drop in mortgage rates led to a strong rally in homebuilder stocks: Toll Brothers, Lennar, Pulte, D.R. Horton, OpenDoor, and also home improvement retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s.
- Diana Olek: Outlines that the news alone brought rates down before any actual buying began, but also cautions the daily volume of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is so large that $200B isn’t as massive as headlines suggest.

"The way $100 billion worth of MBS trades every day, that's not now new money coming into the sector… so it's not nearly as much as came into the market when the Fed started buying MBS at the start of the pandemic."
— Diana Olek (04:59)

Affordability & Price Dynamics (03:35–06:28)
- Lower rates typically support higher home prices; prices remain up more than 40% from pre-pandemic levels.
- Not everyone wins: For many, qualifying for a mortgage—even as rates dip—remains the main barrier, not the monthly payment size.
- Homebuilders already buy down rates for buyers into the 5% range; this news potentially boosts their margins.
Structural Market Headwinds (06:28–12:09)
- Income gaps and chronic housing under-supply limit the impact of stimulus or lower rates.
- Most homeowners have locked in sub-4% mortgages, limiting the pool of “move-up” or resale supply.
- Supply constraints and qualification hurdles mean lower rates won’t produce a pandemic-like boom.
- Growing role of institutional landlords (per Pretium interview), with a significant cohort of Americans renting by necessity or choice.

"I think the trades in Home Depot… not in the homebuilders. I would be cautious here. Affordability… is a combination of really an income gap, a supply side dynamic that does not meet those folks."
— Tim Seymour (06:40)

"Structurally we just need way, way, way, way, way more homes… more than we have. Any action towards that… is going to be much more meaningful than doing a little buyback right here."
— Julie Beal (09:44)

2. The Macro View: Policy, Markets, and Volatility

Trump Administration's Policy Moves (13:08–17:38)
- Push for housing affordability is politically popular, but macro effect is modest.
- Upcoming tax refunds and “stimulus” may support spending, but further Congressional action unlikely due to election year gridlock.
- Fed remains on hold—will need clear data before more rate cuts.

"The Fed would like to cut a couple more times, but it doesn't have to be now...the data this morning was anything but; total mess."
— Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo (15:30)

Markets in a "Risk-On" Mood
- Volatility indicators (VIX, FX vol, rates) are all low, suggesting investors are comfortable taking risks in the near term.
- Individual stock volatility is rising, making it a “stock-pickers' market.”
- Earnings and immediate-expensing capex spend are supporting the market, reinforced by expected stimulus.

3. Google Approaches $4 Trillion Market Cap

Alphabet Surges Amid Strong Tech Sentiment (18:23–21:17)
- Hits new all-time highs, unlike rivals Meta and Microsoft, reflecting rotation within “MAG7”.
- Investors await earnings; optimism for further visibility into key segments like Waymo.
- Evidence of broadening gains as small caps/industrials participate, not just mega cap tech.

"If we had some more clarity there, I think that would be good for the stock."
— Karen Fireman on breaking out Waymo results (18:46)

"…the different pieces of that holding company that we call Google, it's starting to get rewarded too. But the broader market is the story."
— Tim Seymour (19:11)

4. Oil Majors & Venezuela: New Risk and Opportunity

US Pushes for Oil Investment in Venezuela (23:28–27:56)
- Trump admin hosts Exxon, Chevron, and others, promising $100B+ investment/protection.
- Darren Woods (Exxon CEO): Voices caution due to “uninvestable” conditions—legal risk and legacy asset seizures.
- Debate around the likelihood/timing of major investments, with recognition these are long-tail projects.
- Oil and oil services stocks (Halliburton, SLB) flagged as potential early movers before concrete action occurs.

"Venezuela today is uninvestable... we're confident that with this administration and President Trump working hand in hand with the Venezuelan government that those changes can be put in place."
— Darren Woods, Exxon CEO (24:00, via Eamon Javers)

5. Mega Mining Merger: Rio Tinto & Glencore

Prospects for World's Largest Miner (28:54–30:37)
- $260B merger rekindles after failed 2024 attempt; Glencore shares soar, Rio Tinto falls.
- Strategic rationale: bulks, copper, coal, and leverage to commodity cycles.
- Coal assets not seen as dealbreaker for Rio Tinto.

"If they're getting together, they have a view on the commodity complex… all this happening without a strong Chinese economy I think is very good news."
— Tim Seymour (29:22)

6. Meta's "Nuclear Deal" for Data Center Power

Meta signs 20-year nuclear power purchase (31:05–37:55)
- Partners: Vistra, Oklo. Aim: power critical data centers for AI workloads far into the future.
- Andrew Obin (BofA): Sees massive technological churn. Big industrial names (Trane, Johnson Controls) stand to benefit from long-term capex in infrastructure and services, though near-term volatility persists.
- Water-cooled chillers sold out for next 2 years—data center demand outweighs any marginal cooling efficiency gains.
- Nuclear capacity buildouts take time (not before 2030s), and regulatory hurdles remain even with fast-tracked policy.

"Meta is short power… Meta is basically going behind the meter or striking their own deals… tells you this story has legs. The hyperscalers are thinking a decade ahead."
— Andrew Obin, BofA (36:52)

7. Defense Spending, EVTOLs, and Upstart Aerospace

Trump seeks $1.5T defense budget - top names (Northrop, Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) and innovative air mobility (Joby Aviation, Vertical Aerospace) rally.
Regulatory tailwinds and federal push mean strong near-term setup for drone/eVTOL makers.

8. Weight Loss Pharma: Wegovy on Amazon

Novo Nordisk teams with Amazon Pharmacy for Wegovy sales (40:23–44:38)
- Both cash and insurance customers can access, tapping into Amazon Prime’s reach.
- Citi’s Jeff Meacham: Calls it a win for Novo but also underscores there’s ample room for both Novo and Eli Lilly as Medicare/Medicaid opens up.
- Small-cap innovation continues, but most new entrants likely need partnerships to succeed.

"It's not a zero sum game... both companies with broader access are really going to see their meds dramatically get much greater utilization."
— Jeff Meacham, Citi (40:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On housing hopes vs. reality:

"The only people that are going to be motivated to do this are 28% — basically above 5%. So... I don't think it's going to be a mad rush for homes."
— Steve Grasso (08:12)

On renters' reality:

"There's a huge market for renters… I'm not sure it's as much of the American dream as it used to be."
— Tim Seymour (10:35)

On risk appetite:

"Volatility… is really low. So I think it's telling us that people are pretty sanguine about taking risk right now. They're taking more of it as far as I can tell."
— Mike Schumacher (17:01)

On Meta’s data center "nuclear" pivot:

"Nuclear is the next solution. One of the biggest winners is going to be GE Vernova… it's just, it's nuclear. You don’t want this stuff blowing up."
— Andrew Obin (35:48)

Timestamps for Key Segments

[01:02] Housing revival, mortgage rate drop news
[02:15] Diana Olek on MBS buy, effect on rates
[03:46] Home prices and affordability, first-time buyers
[06:40] Traders’ take on housing, Home Depot, supply issues
[10:08] Renting trends & institutional landlord market
[13:51] Wells Fargo macro – Fed, stimulus, risk views
[18:23] Google/Alphabet approaches $4T
[23:28] Trump/White House meets oil CEOs over Venezuela
[28:54] Rio Tinto–Glencore merger talk
[31:05] Meta's nuclear deal for data infrastructure
[40:23] Novo Nordisk/Amazon Wegovy partnership
[45:17] Final trades

Final Trades — Trader Picks

Julie Beal: TransUnion (housing “safer play”)
Tim Seymour: SLB — offshore drilling, oil services
Karen Fireman: Buy SPY puts as protection (with low VIX)
Steve Grasso: Boeing (“think it’s going higher”)

Tone and Takeaways

Fast Money maintains its signature brisk, debate-filled style. The desk threads policy, macro, and actionable ideas, but shows recurring caution—headline stimulus ("big beautiful bill") and flashy deals don’t always translate to sustained investor opportunity. The panel emphasizes structural market limits (housing, energy), tech sector resilience, and a bullish bias toward industrial innovation (AI power, miners, defense, and drugs) as the U.S. moves into a pivotal 2026.

For investors:

Housing stocks rallied, but affordability and inventory remain stubborn headwinds.
Tech leaders like Google continue to break away from peers.
Policy support in energy, defense, and pharma is real, but hard structural work lies ahead.

Missed the episode? This summary brings you up to speed—not just on headlines, but on the logic and nuance behind market moves.

CNBC Fast Money – January 9, 2026

Main Discussion Points

1. Housing Market Revival & Mortgage Rate Drop

Mortgage rates fall to 5.99%, lowest in nearly 3 years (01:02–06:28)
- Triggered by the Trump administration's announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds.
- Immediate drop in mortgage rates led to a strong rally in homebuilder stocks: Toll Brothers, Lennar, Pulte, D.R. Horton, OpenDoor, and also home improvement retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s.
- Diana Olek: Outlines that the news alone brought rates down before any actual buying began, but also cautions the daily volume of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is so large that $200B isn’t as massive as headlines suggest.

"The way $100 billion worth of MBS trades every day, that's not now new money coming into the sector… so it's not nearly as much as came into the market when the Fed started buying MBS at the start of the pandemic."
— Diana Olek (04:59)

Affordability & Price Dynamics (03:35–06:28)
- Lower rates typically support higher home prices; prices remain up more than 40% from pre-pandemic levels.
- Not everyone wins: For many, qualifying for a mortgage—even as rates dip—remains the main barrier, not the monthly payment size.
- Homebuilders already buy down rates for buyers into the 5% range; this news potentially boosts their margins.
Structural Market Headwinds (06:28–12:09)
- Income gaps and chronic housing under-supply limit the impact of stimulus or lower rates.
- Most homeowners have locked in sub-4% mortgages, limiting the pool of “move-up” or resale supply.
- Supply constraints and qualification hurdles mean lower rates won’t produce a pandemic-like boom.
- Growing role of institutional landlords (per Pretium interview), with a significant cohort of Americans renting by necessity or choice.

"I think the trades in Home Depot… not in the homebuilders. I would be cautious here. Affordability… is a combination of really an income gap, a supply side dynamic that does not meet those folks."
— Tim Seymour (06:40)

"Structurally we just need way, way, way, way, way more homes… more than we have. Any action towards that… is going to be much more meaningful than doing a little buyback right here."
— Julie Beal (09:44)

2. The Macro View: Policy, Markets, and Volatility

Trump Administration's Policy Moves (13:08–17:38)
- Push for housing affordability is politically popular, but macro effect is modest.
- Upcoming tax refunds and “stimulus” may support spending, but further Congressional action unlikely due to election year gridlock.
- Fed remains on hold—will need clear data before more rate cuts.

"The Fed would like to cut a couple more times, but it doesn't have to be now...the data this morning was anything but; total mess."
— Mike Schumacher, Wells Fargo (15:30)

Markets in a "Risk-On" Mood
- Volatility indicators (VIX, FX vol, rates) are all low, suggesting investors are comfortable taking risks in the near term.
- Individual stock volatility is rising, making it a “stock-pickers' market.”
- Earnings and immediate-expensing capex spend are supporting the market, reinforced by expected stimulus.

3. Google Approaches $4 Trillion Market Cap

Alphabet Surges Amid Strong Tech Sentiment (18:23–21:17)
- Hits new all-time highs, unlike rivals Meta and Microsoft, reflecting rotation within “MAG7”.
- Investors await earnings; optimism for further visibility into key segments like Waymo.
- Evidence of broadening gains as small caps/industrials participate, not just mega cap tech.

"If we had some more clarity there, I think that would be good for the stock."
— Karen Fireman on breaking out Waymo results (18:46)

"…the different pieces of that holding company that we call Google, it's starting to get rewarded too. But the broader market is the story."
— Tim Seymour (19:11)

4. Oil Majors & Venezuela: New Risk and Opportunity

US Pushes for Oil Investment in Venezuela (23:28–27:56)
- Trump admin hosts Exxon, Chevron, and others, promising $100B+ investment/protection.
- Darren Woods (Exxon CEO): Voices caution due to “uninvestable” conditions—legal risk and legacy asset seizures.
- Debate around the likelihood/timing of major investments, with recognition these are long-tail projects.
- Oil and oil services stocks (Halliburton, SLB) flagged as potential early movers before concrete action occurs.

"Venezuela today is uninvestable... we're confident that with this administration and President Trump working hand in hand with the Venezuelan government that those changes can be put in place."
— Darren Woods, Exxon CEO (24:00, via Eamon Javers)

5. Mega Mining Merger: Rio Tinto & Glencore

Prospects for World's Largest Miner (28:54–30:37)
- $260B merger rekindles after failed 2024 attempt; Glencore shares soar, Rio Tinto falls.
- Strategic rationale: bulks, copper, coal, and leverage to commodity cycles.
- Coal assets not seen as dealbreaker for Rio Tinto.

"If they're getting together, they have a view on the commodity complex… all this happening without a strong Chinese economy I think is very good news."
— Tim Seymour (29:22)

6. Meta's "Nuclear Deal" for Data Center Power

Meta signs 20-year nuclear power purchase (31:05–37:55)
- Partners: Vistra, Oklo. Aim: power critical data centers for AI workloads far into the future.
- Andrew Obin (BofA): Sees massive technological churn. Big industrial names (Trane, Johnson Controls) stand to benefit from long-term capex in infrastructure and services, though near-term volatility persists.
- Water-cooled chillers sold out for next 2 years—data center demand outweighs any marginal cooling efficiency gains.
- Nuclear capacity buildouts take time (not before 2030s), and regulatory hurdles remain even with fast-tracked policy.

"Meta is short power… Meta is basically going behind the meter or striking their own deals… tells you this story has legs. The hyperscalers are thinking a decade ahead."
— Andrew Obin, BofA (36:52)

7. Defense Spending, EVTOLs, and Upstart Aerospace

Trump seeks $1.5T defense budget - top names (Northrop, Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) and innovative air mobility (Joby Aviation, Vertical Aerospace) rally.
Regulatory tailwinds and federal push mean strong near-term setup for drone/eVTOL makers.

8. Weight Loss Pharma: Wegovy on Amazon

Novo Nordisk teams with Amazon Pharmacy for Wegovy sales (40:23–44:38)
- Both cash and insurance customers can access, tapping into Amazon Prime’s reach.
- Citi’s Jeff Meacham: Calls it a win for Novo but also underscores there’s ample room for both Novo and Eli Lilly as Medicare/Medicaid opens up.
- Small-cap innovation continues, but most new entrants likely need partnerships to succeed.

"It's not a zero sum game... both companies with broader access are really going to see their meds dramatically get much greater utilization."
— Jeff Meacham, Citi (40:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On housing hopes vs. reality:

"The only people that are going to be motivated to do this are 28% — basically above 5%. So... I don't think it's going to be a mad rush for homes."
— Steve Grasso (08:12)

On renters' reality:

"There's a huge market for renters… I'm not sure it's as much of the American dream as it used to be."
— Tim Seymour (10:35)

On risk appetite:

"Volatility… is really low. So I think it's telling us that people are pretty sanguine about taking risk right now. They're taking more of it as far as I can tell."
— Mike Schumacher (17:01)

On Meta’s data center "nuclear" pivot:

"Nuclear is the next solution. One of the biggest winners is going to be GE Vernova… it's just, it's nuclear. You don’t want this stuff blowing up."
— Andrew Obin (35:48)

Timestamps for Key Segments

[01:02] Housing revival, mortgage rate drop news
[02:15] Diana Olek on MBS buy, effect on rates
[03:46] Home prices and affordability, first-time buyers
[06:40] Traders’ take on housing, Home Depot, supply issues
[10:08] Renting trends & institutional landlord market
[13:51] Wells Fargo macro – Fed, stimulus, risk views
[18:23] Google/Alphabet approaches $4T
[23:28] Trump/White House meets oil CEOs over Venezuela
[28:54] Rio Tinto–Glencore merger talk
[31:05] Meta's nuclear deal for data infrastructure
[40:23] Novo Nordisk/Amazon Wegovy partnership
[45:17] Final trades

Final Trades — Trader Picks

Julie Beal: TransUnion (housing “safer play”)
Tim Seymour: SLB — offshore drilling, oil services
Karen Fireman: Buy SPY puts as protection (with low VIX)
Steve Grasso: Boeing (“think it’s going higher”)

Tone and Takeaways

For investors:

Housing stocks rallied, but affordability and inventory remain stubborn headwinds.
Tech leaders like Google continue to break away from peers.
Policy support in energy, defense, and pharma is real, but hard structural work lies ahead.

Missed the episode? This summary brings you up to speed—not just on headlines, but on the logic and nuance behind market moves.

A Housing Revival As Mortage Rates Drop… And Meta’s Nuclear Deal 1/9/26

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Summary

CNBC Fast Money – January 9, 2026

Main Discussion Points

1. Housing Market Revival & Mortgage Rate Drop

2. The Macro View: Policy, Markets, and Volatility

3. Google Approaches $4 Trillion Market Cap

4. Oil Majors & Venezuela: New Risk and Opportunity

5. Mega Mining Merger: Rio Tinto & Glencore

6. Meta's "Nuclear Deal" for Data Center Power

7. Defense Spending, EVTOLs, and Upstart Aerospace

8. Weight Loss Pharma: Wegovy on Amazon

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On housing hopes vs. reality:

On renters' reality:

On risk appetite:

On Meta’s data center "nuclear" pivot:

Timestamps for Key Segments

Final Trades — Trader Picks

Tone and Takeaways

Summary

CNBC Fast Money – January 9, 2026

Main Discussion Points

1. Housing Market Revival & Mortgage Rate Drop

2. The Macro View: Policy, Markets, and Volatility

3. Google Approaches $4 Trillion Market Cap

4. Oil Majors & Venezuela: New Risk and Opportunity

5. Mega Mining Merger: Rio Tinto & Glencore

6. Meta's "Nuclear Deal" for Data Center Power

7. Defense Spending, EVTOLs, and Upstart Aerospace

8. Weight Loss Pharma: Wegovy on Amazon

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On housing hopes vs. reality:

On renters' reality:

On risk appetite:

On Meta’s data center "nuclear" pivot:

Timestamps for Key Segments

Final Trades — Trader Picks

Tone and Takeaways