
Markets kicking off a busy week, including a Fed decision and earnings reports from more than 100 S&P and Dow companies. What one top strategist sees as the biggest catalyst for stocks while they hover at record highs, and how options traders are sipping on Starbucks ahead of its report tomorrow. Plus, the latest developments in U.S.-China trade talks, and the stocks that could get a boost if the tariff truce continues. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Melissa Lee
What does it mean to live a rich life?
Tim Seymour
It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes.
Melissa Lee
And everything in between.
Tim Seymour
With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and.
Karen Feiderman
Of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor.
Tim Seymour
Will be there to help you move ahead with confidence.
Melissa Lee
Because with all you've done to find.
Tim Seymour
Your rich, we'll do all we can.
Karen Feiderman
To help you keep enjoying it.
Dan Nathan
Edward Jones Member, SIPC Introducing the new Dell AI PC. Powered by the Intel Core Ultra processor, it helps do your busy work for.
Guy Adami
You so you can fast forward through.
Dan Nathan
Editing images, designing presentations, generating code, debugging code, summarizing meeting notes, finding files, managing.
Guy Adami
Your schedule, responding to Jim's long emails.
Dan Nathan
Leaving all the time in the world for the things you actually want to do. No offense, Jim. Get A new Dell AI PC starting.
Guy Adami
At 699.99@dell.comai-PC how those ahead?
Dan Nathan
Stay ahead.
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A big week ahead. From mega cap earnings to a Fed decision to the latest jobs report, there's a lot that could move the markets in the next couple of days. Both major indices trading at or near records. Can the data support another move higher? The US And China wrapping up day one of their latest trade talks as the August deadline loom over the markets. Will a deal get hammered out and what will it mean for stocks? Plus, just buy it. Why? One top analyst says it is now the time to swoosh into the long struggle. Boy, Nike shares of AMD hitting a 52 week high on news of its hiking prices of a key chip. And not so godlike UnitedHealth is single handedly keeping the Dow from hitting records. Is there anything that can turn this stock around as it reports earnings tomorrow morning? I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. And we start off with what could be a make or break week for markets. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 eking out new record closes today. But investors now turning their attention from the trade deal signed with the European Union on Sunday to the busiest week of earnings season and key economic data on deck. Nearly a third of the S and P and nine Dow components out with results this week. Tech titans Microsoft Media, Amazon and Apple headlining the action. But we also get important reads from other sectors with Visa, Starbucks, Qualcomm, Ford, ExxonMobil among the names on the calendar. On top of this, a huge slate of economic events, including a Fed decision on Wednesday, PCE out Thursday, jobs report Friday. So with stocks trading just off of records, could this week's events be an inflection? Oh boy. Why oh boy, Tim?
Dan Nathan
I mean you just laid it out there. I mean anything could happen with pretty much anything that could go on in markets is happening this week. So at the risk of I guess now I'm talking.
Melissa Lee
So you are talking.
Dan Nathan
Well, what's interesting, markets always there. There's a moment where you say, you know, you buy the rumor and you sell the fact. And is the EU trade deal or essentially looking like we're at the place where trade deals are going to be concluded by April 1st? Is it the sell the fact because we priced in or is it sell the fact because tariffs now really are an issue? We've got tariffs that are now six times what they were when Trump took office and we've got the highest tariffs in, in post world war history. So I do think at some point that's going to be an issue and I do think we've kind of, we've inched higher every time we get some better news. I thought last week's Japan news was the kind of news that the market really liked. But as you pointed out, almost everything that could bother the markets is happening this week. The one part that I think is probably going to be okay, but is the biggest part for markets as we get into the fall is that jobs number, the jobs number is the most important ingredient for what the Fed is going to do. And I think if the Fed is going to be more aggressive, meaning more dovish, you're going to have to start to see some weakness there. We're not even close to that. But markets aren't priced for any weakers in the labor, labor market. So again, markets are going to all this at all time highs. I'm not saying it sell the fact but I'm telling you the fact is very real. And I'm not sure we price that in.
Stuart Kaiser
It's always about and without a question, earnings matter. I mean to state the obvious, UPS tomorrow. I'm interested in that because it's been a disaster now for the better part of 3 1/2, 4 years stocks been cut in half. Is it a UPS thing or there are other things at work here. It has been a UPS problem. Specifically I think Coinbase on Thursday is fascinating. Given the run, they better say something great. Otherwise valuation gets in the way. But to Tim's point, jobs matter. And I'll say this again, the bond market is really stubborn here and I think people are starting to come to the realization of, wait a second, I thought yields were supposed to go down and they're actually starting to tick up now. I understand the market doesn't care. There's going to be a level where it starts to care. And I think today was an indication we might be getting closer tech earnings for 500.
Mike Khouw
Now that's the one I want to focus on here because I think Google told us a little something yesterday. Good quarter, good guy. They kind of had commentary in and around the things that people were most worried about here. And it was good quarter right all around. But then that Capex thing, you know, a year ago that would have been like a sort of bullish thing. Now it's almost an acknowledgment of how they have to play catch up. Depending upon where that spends going, I think that could be a focus for matter. We know that they've been spending like drunken sailors on talent. We know that they've been kind of committing to more and more capex and we also know that llama 3 is just not a great model and it's just not kind of stacking up pretty well against what Open air and those sorts of things are shipping. So given the run that a lot of those stocks have given the multiples of where they are. And again, I know that's not that important, but it's important if you start to see this Capex being a drag on profitability at some point, especially if you're not monetizing it on the other side. So Microsoft is probably the one that's going to demonstrate what they've done last quarter with Azure. You know, they've seen an uptick in that and they're actually getting some traction as far as AI sales. A lot of that has to do with their open air relationship. But I think, I think all of them, if they put up those quarters and they put up the guidance and they don't rally, I think it's kind of telling you, I don't know what else is going to kind of be the next leg of this.
Melissa Lee
I thought you were mentioning Alphabet because of the reaction or lack of reaction on the back of earnings. Because even if you thought they were good, the fact that they finished the stock, finished the day up a percent the day after is not great. Take a look at Netflix. That quarter was really good. Yes, it's down 7%. Roughly since they reported earnings.
Carter Braxton Worth
Okay. Just to play the devil's advocate. So running into earnings, Netflix was up enormously.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Carter Braxton Worth
Alphabet was up enormously. And you have. Metta is up. It's not. It is not at an all time high. Amazon also up. Not at an all time high. I'm optimistic on Metta and Amazon's earnings. I think with the VIX here and how far the markets come, I think you got to have some protection. So that's what I've been doing, even though I'm staying long. Remember when Liberation Day was announced? So you had this, this tariff levels that nobody ever imagined anything remotely close to. One of the things that was super damaging was confidence. Right, right. Confidence is back. We're starting to see a lot of spend. And when you look at what part of the big beautiful bill was, I come back again to this capex thing and there is a confidence there that people are willing to spend. We also started to see bank regulations come in a little bit. Bank earnings did. Banks did very well. They've come back a little bit. But. So I think earnings will be okay. Whether or not those stocks will be up or not, I'm not really sure. To me, the data points about PC and labor are even more important because I think another leg of this market will be what does the Fed do?
Melissa Lee
Sure.
Carter Braxton Worth
But so to.
Melissa Lee
Sorry to connect what you and Tim are saying in terms of tariffs. Now we have certainty, which is great for the market. Ish. Yeah, certainty. Ish. As long as they last. They last. Right. And they're working on them, the deals in place.
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
But we know that it's much greater than what tariffs had been six months ago or a year ago. But we knew they were going to be baseline 10%. So do you start factoring 15% versus 10% the impact on the labor market and therefore you see things much worse? I mean, is that. How does that. Ridiculous.
Carter Braxton Worth
Okay, so here's the thing about tariffs, though. So let's say you're Amazon and you import and you pay a 15% tariff. That's 15% of your cost of goods. It's not 15%. Right. So it's depending on what your gross margin is.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Carter Braxton Worth
It's not a 15% increase on what the consumer necessarily pays. Plus maybe Amazon eats some of that. Maybe the supplier does, maybe the customer does. So I think the tariff could be tempered on some kinds of things. So I'm not, I'm not quite as worried about that.
Dan Nathan
Well, we've had the conversation on the desk from either consumer Apparel consumer discretionary analysts that have said a little clarity goes a long way in terms of what the markets can now do in terms of begin to price it in and that companies will absorb some and that the consumers will absorb some and everyone should be okay. I think, I still think there's a big issue and I just to be clear, today was also another one of those days. You come in, you see Europe down one one and a half percent, you see the dollar up almost 1% and it's hey, is US exceptionalism back on as a trade? And I don't think it was totally off as a trade, but I don't think it's back on just because of today. And I think we talk about positioning that dollar positioning in terms of the bear side of the dollar call is probably the most crowded trade out there in terms of the perception. So you get a headline like we got today. But ultimately deregulation, tax cuts, those things are great. But tariffs are not good for the economy. Is today the day we start to price in a slower rest of the world? There's a couple of people out there talking about that. But I just think it's important to say that today the trades that were really important in the first half of the year and you know, as someone that manages an international fund and someone who thinks about this mega trade, I don't think you just reversed field in one day. In fact, if anything, the fact that you've cemented these tariffs, I think ultimately it's dollar negative. And I think you're going to get to a place where that trade is back on.
Stuart Kaiser
A week and a half or so ago, I think Carter Worth had a note out about countertrend move in the dollar playing for upside. He was spot on. His timing was right. Tim is right as well. I think this is just a bounce off an oversold condition. And go back and listen what President Trump said, I believe on Friday and I've been pointing this out, we've been trying to point out for a while in 16 through 20 that was the first administration that openly talked about the dollar being too strong and, and the want for a weaker dollar, although they will say that they like a stronger dollar. He said it again on Friday that a strong dollar actually hurts us, doesn't help us. Now I don't necessarily agree with that, although when you're $38 trillion in the hole, I get it, but they clearly want the dollar to continue to deteriorate.
Melissa Lee
China, they're meeting right now in Stockholm. Bessant and his counterpart what happens if they say there's some sort of a deal? And granted, a deal is in the eyes of the beholder, a deal is in the eyes of who is talking about that deal and how they are spinning it. But if they're able to say that they're going to. They're going to extend that tariff deadline from August 12th to whatever it is, 90 days out. Do the markets rally?
Dan Nathan
I don't know. I think we've gotten a lot of rally. I think there's certain parts of the market that will rally. I want to continue to buy China Tech. I think there will be other places to play. I think the semiconductor space will be very happy about that. Nvidia will be very happy about that. Maybe even Apple will be happy about that. And you can be sure they're going to tell you they got a trade deal. Both sides have a lot to gain by saying there's a trade deal. They've already kind of told us there's a trade deal. I think now this is, you know, President Trump and his team are not afraid to talk tough and to stir up a little bit more acrimony again. But I think right now the sense is Bessant and crew have found places that both sides can compromise and get something out of this deal.
Carter Braxton Worth
I think that even if there isn't a deal and they say there is no deal and they start talking to exactly what you're saying, and even if they really believe it, the market won't believe. The market won't believe that there is no possibility for a China deal. Trade deal. So I don't think the effect, if that were to be the case, and I don't think it'd be the case. I think kick the can is more likely than. I don't think there's that much downside.
Dan Nathan
Pretty good game growing up, by the way.
Melissa Lee
You guys played kick the can. That's just an extra.
Stuart Kaiser
We didn't. We didn't play that game because we needed to collect the cans to trade in nickels and stuff. Somebody stole my milk money and Scarsdale. They played it because it was funny for them where I grew up, anyway.
Dan Nathan
All right, buddy.
Melissa Lee
For more on what is at stake for investors this week, let's bring in Stuart Kaiser, Citi's head of equity trading strategy. Stuart, great to have you with us. How are we setting up into what could be, I don't know, a week full of tape bombs? Basically, Yeah.
Angelica Peebles
I think I'd probably borrow a little bit from everybody around the table, but I think big Picture, unemployment rate is singularly, I think the biggest risk to the equity markets this week I think is probably large cap tech earnings because the bar is set pretty high for those given the valuation, the performance, the concentration of positioning. If you were to get any sort of negative talk about earnings guidance or CapEx guidance, I think you could see a lot of pressure there. So for this week, that'll be the number one focus. But big picture, the unemployment rate for us has probably been the single most important data point we're getting all year. I think that continues.
Mike Khouw
All right, Stu. It's kind of hard to come up with a reason why the market might sell off a little bit, even like a little back and fill or something like that. You talk to a lot of really smart institutions. What are they saying? What's the bear case? And are they still kind of stuck in this sort of pain trade where they haven't totally bought back in?
Angelica Peebles
Yeah, I do think there is a little bit of that. We're not fully in just because I get too many questions on S and P up 35 basis point days of why is it rallying? And I think when people are asking about small rallies, it reflects that in terms of concerns. Look, the biggest hedging flows we've seen have been much more in the credit and rate space. So I do think long end of the yield curve, any disruption in credit spreads are probably the two things from a markets perspective that could kind of throw us off balance. As I mentioned though tactically here it's earnings and big pictures on a plummet rate. But the flows we are seeing is definitely on the credit side of the ledger.
Carter Braxton Worth
So what is the best labor number for the market? Right. Weighing what the Fed might do, what's, what's the best case?
Angelica Peebles
I think frankly a repeat of last month would be Great, right about 150k jobs. Unemployment rate stays at 4.1%. The Fed I think is willing to cut into that environment as long as inflation cooperates. And I have a lot of questions, especially from bond investors. Why does the equity market keep rallying? And my response is you've got a 4.1% unemployment rate, inflation's fairly friendly and we're debating how many times the Fed is going to cut later this year. It's actually a really good macro environment. So I think anything 100k and above is fine. I think you would need a really big miss on the, on the labor data to really send the market notably lower. So something I think you need to be below 75 or 50k. To really get people's attention to the downside.
Stuart Kaiser
Stuart, longest stretch without a 1% move, 23 days since the fall of last year. Meaningless or just setting up for the inevitable?
Angelica Peebles
I mean it matters because I think what it's telling you is you know, the market is rallying in low velocity way and we do have a lot of demand, you know, underneath the surface. We're going to buy back something like 1.2 trillion of stock this year. It's a lot of money coming into the market. Volume target fund systematic buyers are supporting the market. So I think what you're saying they're seeing there is a good macro conditions underlying demand for US equities and that is just compressed volume straight out. Does it increase risk reward? Yes. And as does valuation, as does positioning. We're paying a lot of attention to that. The only thing I would say is if you look at the vix, the VIX is, is low at the front of the curve but the VIX has a term structure and that term structure is still quite high. So the market is tell telling you there are kind of landmines out there over the course of the next three months that they're paying attention to. And if you're able to squeeze that risk premium out further, it is even more incrementally positive for markets.
Dan Nathan
Stuart, we're covering a lot of ground with you which is why it's great to have you here. So let's go back to semis and let's go back to capex spending and to me that's the part of the equity market that has had relief in the last quarter. Suddenly deep seat doesn't really matter anymore, everybody spending away. Is that the consensus of your analyst team as well? And is there anything within there that's either counter to the trend in the view?
Angelica Peebles
You know, I think it's, it's steady as she goes at this point. You look at, you know, whether it's AI power or just the stocks they're rallying materially. I think on the analog semi side we've gotten a little bit better commentary from management and that's really helped that analog semis was a really under owned part of the market and I think we've started to see that. Correct. So look, I don't really see any dents right now in that trade marketing internationally. I'm surprised that a lot of international investors feel underweight the trade and underweight us. And look, you can't own AI without owning US stocks. So essentially I think that's another sort of Source of maybe incremental demand. So, you know, steady as she goes for now.
Melissa Lee
Stuart, great to see you.
Angelica Peebles
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
Stuart Kaiser. All right, meantime, we've got a news alert on Serafda. Shares are halted after hours. The FDA just releasing an update on the alleged assist gene therapy drug. Angelica Peoples has got the details on this one. Angelica, has the stock started trading or.
Karen Feiderman
MELISSA it's still halted as far as I know, but the big news here is that the FDA has recommended that Sarepta can go ahead and resume shipments of that gene therapy Elevidis for patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy who can still walk. And remember, that's an important distinction because there's two groups here. There is the younger patients who can still walk and then older patients who can no longer walk as that disease progresses. And Sarepta quickly putting out a statement saying that they will resume shipments gene therapy and remember, it was only 10 days ago that we even got here that the FDA said that they wanted to see this drug come off the market, at least temporarily. And we've seen quite a bit of pushback on that FDA decision. And then Friday we saw the heat again increase when the FDA said that they were investigating a case of an 8 year old who died after receiving that gene therapy. But tonight the FDA is saying that it has determined that that death was not directly caused by levitis. And Brazilian regulators where that death did occur, they said that their investigation concluded that it was caused by influenza and exasperated by immunosuppression. And you get immunosuppression when you get this gene therapy, it kind of helps prevent some of those negative side effects that you can get when you get any sort of gene therapy. And so there's been so much back and forth here, but obviously this is good for Sarepta and they can go ahead and bring that drug back to market.
Melissa Lee
Melissa at least I can sell it to this demographic. Angelica, the deaths that were reported before in association with, with this treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, those deaths were in non ambulatory patients, correct? So they were farther along in the disease progression. Is there a commercial path now? I mean, is this enough, do analysts think, for Sarepta to remain afloat if they are able to sell to this smaller subset of the population?
Karen Feiderman
There are still some questions about that, but Sarepta has said that they think that just the ambulatory patient population alone could help. Elevidis do about $500 million in sales every year. And you know, they Already took some steps to restructure the company, reduce their spending. Of course they laid off about a third of their staff. There are still questions on whether that will be enough because they have, you know, these debt, these covenants that are coming up in 2027. They owe money there and they also have this revolver that they need to make sure that they continue to access. But I do think that at least having this product to sell on the market, you know, helps alleviate a little bit of that worry and it makes it a little less pressing that you might still see some more. But at least they have a path forward and it's not as life or death as it was just last week when they couldn't sell anything.
Melissa Lee
Right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles again, the stock halt in the after hour session. We're awaiting that trade. But the stock during the regular session was up strongly on big volume.
Stuart Kaiser
Somebody knew something two times normal. Number one. Number two, think about this for a second. We saw a zero price target, I think last week we discussed it. The range for analysts in the stock are 0 on the one side, 185. On the higher end of things, I think the average price target is still probably in the mid-20s to high 20s. This is relief rally written all over it. And people that have shorted the stock thinking it's going to zero. Citi initiated with a sell. J.P. morgan, a sell. There's going to be some pain to the upside in this for the next couple of days.
Dan Nathan
I mean this is an options trade, right? I mean right down.
Mike Khouw
This is 1.2 billion dollar market cap. Can we go back to China for a second? Because you know we're talking about trades. You just asked like what, what does it mean if you kick the can down the road? Right now we have a 30% tariff on China. Let's just be really clear about that. And we just did a deal with the EU. Supposedly it's 15%. And to your point, Tim, you start off the show talking about something has really changed here. If they kick the can down the road, think about what happened in 2018. We had just put tariffs on China. We had a market that was going higher into rate hikes. We had a VIX that was literally below the teens. It was trading at like couldn't come up with a reason why the stock market should sell off. All of a sudden. Then we get some global growth fears and the stock market started selling off. October, November, it was down 20% into Christmas. And I think that's a really good kind of framework to Think about what could go wrong right here. Because if all these tariffs are going to start weighing on global growth, I mean, I don't know if you guys read the headlines today and almost every major financial publication is like, it wasn't as bad as it could be. That was the EU thing. Fifteen percent is a lot more than two and a half percent is what.
Dan Nathan
We last six times knew that it.
Melissa Lee
Was going to be more than two and a half percent. I mean I was going to be.
Mike Khouw
15, I mean, so. And 30% stays on China for a long time. China's economy is very weak right now. And this back and forth is about rare earth materials and high end GPUs are slightly lower end GPUs. That's what's going on here. So I don't know, I feel like this is something that is going to come into greater light over the next few weeks because I don't think any of these other deals, and you said it yourself, Melissa, you can walk away from the table and say that's a deal. There are frameworks. Japan's a framework. This EU things a framework. The UK thing's a joke. You know, we don't have Canada, we don't have Mexico yet. So I just think it's not done. And you could say, well, we have a parameter, that's fine. But if it starts weighing on global growth, then you're going to have a problem here. Especially if we have weakening growth here in the US we have inflation that's sticky.
Dan Nathan
We have.
Melissa Lee
Are we setting up for a sell off? Is that what you're predicting? Listen, it sounds like no one can.
Mike Khouw
Predict it right now. Listen, I thought at like 6,6000 in the S&P 500 that was a good place for a sell off. So I'm not, you know, 6400 here. I'm not the guy to ask. I'm just kind of laying out what I think could happen.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, call on kicks, why Wall street is bullish on Nike's recent swoosh and where the analysts see the stock heading from here. Plus a drag on the Dow and shareholders, how UnitedHealth is taking a major bite out of the index this year and what to expect from the insurance giant's earnings report tomorrow. Don't go anywhere fast. When he's back in two.
Tim Seymour
On WhatsApp. Your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance. And that video call for your grand's 80th stays in the family. Even your streaming password stays between you and your college roommates, who still ask for it every week in your group chat. Because on WhatsApp, your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately at Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella.
Dan Nathan
Eduardo CNBC Make It Online Course how to Build a Standout Personal Brand Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step. There's no time like now to start.
Melissa Lee
Building your personal brand.
Dan Nathan
Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Nike jumping nearly 5% at the highs of the day after JP Morgan upgraded the stock to overweight. Analysts raising their EPS estimates, citing better inventory to sales alignment, improving wholesale orders and better operating margins. The firm also upping its price target to $93 from 64. That's about 17% upside from today's close. Tim, do you like this call?
Dan Nathan
I do like this call and I think other people are out there. We had that conversation with Jefferies about a month ago. Remember their fiscal 4Q numbers were important because they talked about that inventory correction. They talked about real demand in their running shoes. They talked about some, you know, essentially some change in the demand profile of what's going on. And this is a story that took four quarters to slowly both bottom and correct and turn itself around. And the valuation, at least on a sales perspective is compelling. So if you don't think that there's a major cyclical event or headwind for athleisure, then you do just buy it. And in fact you buy it, you hold it for a while because on a price to sales basis, this company is really cheap.
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah. Although on a price to other basis, price to earnings, it's not so cheap. But you know, I do give them the benefit of the doubt. It's not, it's not a tomorrow fix. It's going to take some time. So it is a little bit expensive for where they are in the turnaround, which is not that far right, not that far in, but I am long from higher.
Stuart Kaiser
The bounce post earnings obviously took me by surprise because when they reported, I'm like this was not a good quarter. We had the analyst on that was excited. Tim was excited. Correctly. So. However, there's still been some Downgrades along the way and it is still in a pretty significant downtrend for the last four years that's not been broken yet. So it's obviously done a lot of work to the upside, but its work is not over to break that trend.
Mike Khouw
Yeah, you know, you've been talking about the high end luxury trade. Now obviously this is not, this is consumer discretionary. But we've seen what's happened to Lulu. We see what's happening on the high end, which is kind of odd because when we go back to the bank earnings that we had a couple of weeks ago, it sounded like the consumer in general was in pretty good place. So it is odd that we're seeing on the higher end. We're seeing $125, like yoga pants are kind of stressed out a little bit, you know what I mean? So I don't know, there's a lot of different crosscurrents as it relates to consumer.
Dan Nathan
I mean I can't get enough $125 yoga pants. But I do think, but I think the point, sincerely, because we just showed that chart of lulu. This is, this is really bottom up stuff. In other words, you know, games off if suddenly discretionary spend changes a lot. You're looking at me kind of.
Stuart Kaiser
I'm not looking at, I'm not looking at fun.
Dan Nathan
Going to say something that's probably more than people need to know. I've started a yoga regimen in the last six months and you know, I haven't bought any chance. It's no, I don't need pants. The same pants I wore to the gym, I can wear the yoga class. So. But you know, anyway, I think Nike and LULU are a case of. This is stock picking, folks. This is a case where I feel much more comfortable on a Nike who's gone through a painful correction period. And Lulu, if the whole sector is under pressure, it's game off. Because I think there's a lot that still could be in the face of discretionary spend.
Stuart Kaiser
The bottoms up analysis was hysterical. Mel and I were smirking at that.
Mike Khouw
Like a downward dog sort of thing. Is that what's going on?
Melissa Lee
Is that yoga pants?
Dan Nathan
I'm not that clever.
Mike Khouw
I'm not.
Carter Braxton Worth
That's what we do, surround the trade. But just let me add one thing. The LULU valuation is far, far, far cheaper.
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more funding.
Stuart Kaiser
Well, there is a lot more. I'm not that clever. By the way, that's a line. If you remember in the Godfather, you give me too much credit.
Melissa Lee
That's great.
Stuart Kaiser
I'm not that clever. You remember that there's a lot more.
Melissa Lee
Fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
Dan Nathan
The weakest link in the Dow, how The plunge in UnitedHealth has kept the Dow from records and whether tomorrow's earnings.
Melissa Lee
Report can start to turn things around.
Dan Nathan
Plus, the latest on US China trade talks and the stocks that could be impacted as leaders from the two countries meet. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
Tim Seymour
At Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the course room to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella.edu on WhatsApp, your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance. And that video call for your grand's 80th stays in the family. Even your streaming password stays between you and your college roommates who still ask for it every week in your group chat. Because on WhatsApp, your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. UnitedHealth shares up slightly today as the insurance giant gets ready to report earnings tomorrow before the bell. The company withdrew 2025 earnings forecasts back in May. Just last week confirmed the DOJ is investigating its Medicaid practices. The stock has taken one hit after another. This year it is down 55% from its all time high. UNH by itself is responsible for shaving nearly 1400 points points off the Dow this year, keeping that index from its own record. Of course, while the NASDAQ and S and P sit basically at record highs. There's a little bit of a turnaround story in this. There's a little bit of the government uncertainty story in this. And there's certainly a lot of medical loss ratios trending higher. That's a big problem in this story.
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah. I mean, right. We have the CEO change as well. If I were the new CEO, I don't know why you'd put any guidance out out there at all. For so many reasons. Right. There's so much uncertainty around the business that I think, who knows where this government case ends up? Who knows. So how can you possibly put out any numbers? Well, you will hear. We'll get some sense of the business and maybe, maybe have some sense for the effects in the business. You could make a case it is not expensive but you have to make a guess, right? What will they end up being able to earn one day? This will be great. I am nowhere close to participating now.
Melissa Lee
Nowhere close. Are you anywhere close?
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I'm, I have participated in the last six weeks. And so I think you're right that if you go to the CEO new CEO playbook, it says we don't have to do a whole lot impressive here but I think it's important, important for the company to reestablish some kind of guidance And I think the street is looking at, you know, $18 as a floor somewhere for at least in here. And as the question is really where do you begin to set the bar for 26 so federal, you know probe is something that is very tough to handicap. And so you know that's the part of this that I'm less concerned about Medicare Advantage than I am concerned about a coating probe for it's before the.
Stuart Kaiser
Markets are so hard you can do here but I'll go out on a limb and say there's a very good chance. You see this back to 325 which was the last leg down from that 600 hour level. Remember it sort of flatlined for a while then took this last leg down to 280. Anything just on the margins. That's encouraging. And this stock goes up 25$30 tomorrow.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, details from today is US China trade talks, what we know about the meeting in Stockholm and how it could impact investing in mainland equities. The details when fast Money returns.
Dan Nathan
Missed a moment of fast Catch us anytime on the go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast MONEY Stocks closing mix to kick off the busiest week of earnings season and ahead of the Fed meeting that starts tomorrow. The Dow seeing a small loss. The S and P eking out a record close along with the NASDAQ which gained 3. 10 of a percent. Coinbase falling nearly 4% today. The stock on a six day losing streak, its longest since February now down more than 15% from its record high. Tesla and Samsung stock Both jumping after CEO Elon Musk confirmed a 16 and a half billion dollar chip deal between the two companies where Samsung will supply the EV maker with semiconductors through 2033. And take a look at shares of AMD jumping more than 4% hitting a 52 week high. This after after a report the semi giant hiked prices on its high end AI chip by $10,000 and some after hours. Action to tell you about Whirlpool and Nucor lower after missing EPS and revenue estimates. Cadence design jumping after beating top and bottom line expectations. And a news alert on Procter and Gamble, the company announcing CEO Shailesh de Jurekar will succeed John Mueller as CEO at the start of the year. And as the market digests this weekend, big trade headlines are now next. Guest says that despite a 90 day tariff pause, Chinese goods are about to get a lot more expensive. David Riedel is president and founder of Riedel Research. David, welcome. It's always great to see you. Why are they going to get more expensive?
David Riedel
Well, I think that, you know, industries have done what they can to absorb the tariffs.
Angelica Peebles
So far.
David Riedel
Companies have all worked through any inventory that they had from before the tariffs or during any breaks in the tariffs.
Angelica Peebles
Tariffs.
David Riedel
Once you have a period of time with 55% tariffs on US imports from China, that's going to start showing up on, on shelves pretty, pretty dramatically. And this is all going into our holiday season. So if you do get another 90 days and don't get some reprieve on the 55%, I think prices are going to go higher for US consumers.
Melissa Lee
Suggest an extension without any sort of reprieve. That is not going to be a victory. And does that force the hand of Besson and company at all anymore? I mean, if you have consumers complaining about the price of everything that they want to put under their tree or under their menorah going up, it's certainly.
David Riedel
Going to and it sort of should because I think China has reminded everyone that they do have a lot of levers to play here they are. It's obviously a huge market for, for a lot of things. There is huge supplier of many things that are important to American consumers. And of course, the rare earth's power remains extremely strong. Some good announcements from the DoD and other people getting involved in materials and some of these other stocks. But still, that's many years on the horizon. So if they, if, if Beijing keeps the Trump administration on short leash in terms of rare earths, they can continue to extract concessions.
Dan Nathan
David? Tim, so I'm trying to understand if, if, if she and the current administration in China are taking a different negotiating stance than they have have in the past. It's really hard to tell here where the outcome is. And my view is that both sides need very badly some type of a headline deal. I realize that the Trump administration may not feel that way and it may not appear that way, but I think it's going to be Very difficult otherwise. Is do you think the negotiation here is any different than what we've seen at other times?
David Riedel
Quite honestly, I think Beijing's position is hardening. They've seen how the administration treated our allies like Canada and Ukraine with the dress down of Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. There is no way that Beijing is going to put Xi in any position where he loses face down the track. So they're going to agree to a very, very tight framework deal that is in a strict prohibition on negative comments from the, from the Trump administration in order to continue any sort of conversations. So I think they're hurting the positions because they don't like the uncertainty.
Stuart Kaiser
Sorry about that, David, curveball for you, but you can answer this. Where does tick tock fit into this whole negotiating period of time? Is that a chip that somebody's going to play?
David Riedel
I don't think it really helps. I don't know if anyone really cares in Beijing. They're happy for the status quo. They'll just keep it coming along. It continues to grow in popularity and in use. I mean, if, if there's something that the Trump administration can put on the table. But, but I just don't see that happening and I don't think Beijing cares.
Mike Khouw
David, for 20 years, forced technology transfer was a big bugaboo for US tech companies and probably longer than 20 years, right? So you think about the kind of push out of these export bands of these Nvidia chips. The longer we push out a trade deal, right, the more likely that the Chinese a have to take as much of this inventory as possible and then be continue to innovate, whether it's Huawei and that sort of thing. Do you think there's a chance we're kind of getting played? I mean, it's fine that we get the rare earth materials from them, you.
Dan Nathan
Know what I mean?
Mike Khouw
But that's not maybe as important longer term than taking this technology from us right now.
David Riedel
I think you make a really good point. I mean, we've seen with the Deep Sea example what they can accomplish when they put their minds to something. We've seen some of the homegrown chips really achieving some pretty impressive, impressive gains. So I think the administration needs to be a little bit careful not waiting for everything that they want and getting some sort of settlement. But Beijing, like I said, is not going to put Xi in a position where he might get dressed down in the future or somehow insulted.
Melissa Lee
David, it is always great to get your analysis. David Riedel, Riedel Research.
Dan Nathan
All right.
Melissa Lee
So what do we do with Chinese equities? You still like gaming?
Dan Nathan
I still like gaming. I don't know that you have to get too far afield in terms of Chinese tech. I talk about Alibaba a lot. So I'll talk about Tencent. I think Tencent on an EVID is as cheap as it's ever been. And I would argue that this is maybe one of the most sophisticated tech incubators in the world. We may not see that some of the parts but three year high starting to break out. Those two names Baba and Tencent are companies that the Chinese government needs to see succeed.
Carter Braxton Worth
Same same. So I baba FXI Kweb which is a Dan name. Right. I think that any deal would be a very good one for all of these equities. Just the uncertainty going away plus the valuation is incredibly cheap. We'll see Bob in about two weeks or so.
Stuart Kaiser
Earnings we're going to have Carter in a second but k web above 39 and you will have a it's 36 and change a classic bearish to bullish reversal. Melissa Lee. Stay tuned for that.
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up markets hovering near record highs. But has a rebound come too far too fast with the chart master investor sees in the technicals that is next and the options set up for the busiest week of earnings season. How investors are positioning ahead of one of tomorrow's big reports. Ahead Fast money's back into welcome back to Fast Money. It's been a record setting summer for the S&P 500 which notched a sixth straight record close today. But the trial master says a lack of highs in some other measures shareholders might be a sign of trouble. Carter Braxton worth of worth charting has the charts. In fact he's got six charts.
Dan Nathan
Carter, here we go.
Guy Adami
Let's get to it. First one is the S and P where it is in relation to its pre tariff sell off. So the S and p is about 4% above its high of February before its 21% plunge. So let's take this same exercise and move through various indices. The next indices the most venerable and oldest of all the Dow is right back to that high. Now look at the next one, the most popular of all. This is the Mag 7. It is right back to that high but again has not exceeded. So this is a big week. Not so much for earnings or FOMC or GDP or payrolls. It's do these or don't these break out. Next index. Look at the S&P 400 mid cap. Now of course it's about 5% below and is that's the one that's really lagged. And yet it is one of the best long term performers since its inception, has beaten the S and P. And then finally look at the S&P 500 equal weight. So you have the equate S and P is identical to the Dow, identical to the Mag 7, all having recouped their losses and are sitting here, right here today at those former highs. Do they all finally exceed the high, make new highs or as the S and P has done or are we in some other circumstance? My hunch is that if it doesn't happen this week, it's a big telling thing. But I want to speak specifically about the S&P 400 mid cap. Take a look at this comparative chart now. Now you can only compare something as long as it's been in existence. So this is not an arbitrary start point. It was launched on June 19th, 1991 and you see that the S and P midcap has blown away the S and P in orange. And it's also notable that the S&P 500 equal weight, which is the one that's always cited as a problem, right for a breadth, has also blown away the S and P. And in many ways maybe this recent strength in the S and P itself is just, just itself trying to catch up with the other two. Meanwhile, it is perhaps the most important week not because the earnings, the GDP of the payroll there or any of the things, it's the tariffs, it's because these critical indices will either need to break out here and now and it's those fundamental macro things that will cause it or earnings or put in a double top. My own hunch is that one wants to reduce exposure, anticipating what would be a normal dip drawdown, sell off, decline, drop, something that has a counter trend nature to it.
Carter Braxton Worth
Carter, it's Karen. So what would indicate that it has broken through? How long, how high above that line does it need to get to confirm that it's not just a one day thing? Right? What do you need?
Guy Adami
That's right. I mean, that's right, you know, you beat a record. So if all of those were to make a slight new high and then fall 20%, you'd say see it made a new high. Not you personally, you generic one would say, but that's not what it is. You need to clear form former high by a certain amount. Now the typical that's three and a half to four percent which is about where the S and P is now. And so you need to stick Your landing. That's really if you think about the gymnast that does the fantastic move and then you either nail it or you wobble. And so nailing it is getting above a former high and staying above it versus faltering and putting in either a double top or what is known as a bull trap.
Melissa Lee
Carter, always good to see you. Thank you Carter Braxton worth of worth charting I think carrot was it Carrie.
Carter Braxton Worth
Struggling we always talk about.
Stuart Kaiser
Yeah, it was tremendous. Come on, stop. It's embarrassing. She got carried off by Bella Carolla or somebody with the broken egg ball.
Dan Nathan
And with a metal. She got carried off with a medal.
Melissa Lee
We need the Mag 7 to do.
Dan Nathan
I don't know why you.
Melissa Lee
What's the last vault?
Angelica Peebles
Yeah, that's a good point by you.
Melissa Lee
Have a jam packed week of earnings. We've got to get to this. Actual trades including a big report from Starbucks tomorrow afternoon. How options traders are setting up ahead of the numbers when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. We got a quick check here on Surrepta Therapeutics just resuming trading after being halted in the after hour session. Remember the FDA basically reverse its decision allowing the gene therapy for muscular dystrophy levitis to be marketed to those ambulatory patients in need of the drug. So clearly Good news up 50% right now. Meantime a huge slate of earnings coming this week with Starbucks, Visa, Boeing, UPS and Procter and Gamble all on deck to report tomorrow. Mike co seeing some interesting options trades brewing one of these names there.
Angelica Peebles
Yeah, we're taking a look at Starbucks. This one's implying a move of about 7% or so by the end of the week after they report that significantly higher than the average that the company has experienced after they've reported earnings put significantly outpaced calls today. In fact it traded well over two times its average daily put volume. And the most active contracts on the put side were the January 85 puts. About 5,000 of those traded for about four bucks a contract. Overall that's about $200,000 in premium being bet on those. A downside bet In Starbucks, the second most active were the Sep 90s. So it does appear that there's some bearish sentiment going in.
Melissa Lee
Are you bearish, Tim? I mean I know you feel bearish after you pay $6 for a coffee.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, well, I mean although you know, maybe I should be bullish because some people have the type of loyalty that I do to Starbucks. Even though they're not brewing their coffee anymore, they've got these little machines. Anyway, let's do that the fundamentals I don't think have turned. Okay, so I'm not sure that this is the quarter where you're going to suddenly feel. In fact, the stock has been meandering for the last six months and I think it will continue to my ass.
Stuart Kaiser
Mike, a quick question about volatility and he's Stuart Kaiser talked about the curve in the vix. You tweeted out something about that, say I follow that your Twitter account. Can you speak to the importance of a VIX that's in a steep contango much like.
Angelica Peebles
Yeah, basically what we're looking at, the VIX futures curve are suggesting that, you know, volatility could increase pretty significantly. You know, it's not uncommon for forward volatility to be a bit, little bit higher than it is at spot. But if you go out six months, right now this is about as steep as I've seen it. So basically the options market is implying some, some real choppiness potentially towards the back half of the year.
Melissa Lee
All right, Mike, thanks. Mike Koh up next, next final trades, final trade time.
Dan Nathan
Timothy Great to have the Stifel fixed income interns in the house. Yeah, yeah. Come on, Tencent. I think these Chinese equities, the mega cap techs are moving higher.
Melissa Lee
Karen. Yes.
Carter Braxton Worth
So I'm long as you know, a very max 7 heavy portfolio. I gotta have some protection buying more triple Q put spread.
Mike Khouw
Dan Yeah, I got a note this weekend from my aunt Nancy, longtime NBC Universal producer, that sort of thing. She said I have to enunciate speak up in the final trade.
Melissa Lee
That's good advice, aunt.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, Nancy.
Mike Khouw
So Apple, I would not chase this thing in earnings. How's that?
Stuart Kaiser
Happy birthday. Charlie Cannell Sandy's son, 19 years old. Devin Energy all right, thanks for watching.
Melissa Lee
Fast Mad Money starts right now.
Tim Seymour
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right. Business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.
Hosted by: Melissa Lee
Featuring: Tim Seymour, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Stuart Kaiser, Mike Khouw, Carter Braxton Worth, Angelica Peebles
Location: NASDAQ Markets, Times Square, New York City
Air Time: Weeknights at 5 PM ET on CNBC
Melissa Lee opens the episode by outlining a highly eventful week ahead for investors. She highlights a slew of mega-cap earnings reports from giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, alongside significant economic data releases, including a pivotal Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, PCE figures on Thursday, and the jobs report on Friday.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Melissa Lee (01:03): "Can the data support another move higher? The US and China wrapping up day one of their latest trade talks as the August deadline looms over the markets."
The discussion shifts to the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the impact of elevated tariffs and ongoing US-China trade negotiations.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Dan Nathan (02:52): "With tariffs now being six times what they were when Trump took office... that's going to be an issue."
Stuart Kaiser (04:04): "The bond market is really stubborn here... yields are starting to tick up, which might indicate a shift in market sentiment."
A significant portion of the episode delves into the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, their potential outcomes, and the broader implications for global markets.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Dan Nathan (11:09): "Both sides have a lot to gain by saying there's a trade deal. They’ve already kind of told us there's a trade deal."
David Riedel (33:03): "Once you have a period of time with 55% tariffs on US imports from China, that's going to start showing up on shelves pretty dramatically."
Carter Braxton Worth (37:49): "Any deal would be a very good one for all of these equities. Just the uncertainty going away plus the valuation is incredibly cheap."
The panel discusses specific stocks that are either performing well or facing challenges amid the current market conditions.
Nike (24:08 - 26:02):
Dan Nathan (24:08): "The valuation, at least on a sales perspective, is compelling. If you don't think that there's a major cyclical event or headwind for athleisure, then you do just buy it."
AMD (26:02 - 30:11):
Dan Nathan (26:19): "This is really bottom-up stuff. If discretionary spend changes a lot, you're looking at me kind of."
UnitedHealth (29:28 - 30:11):
Carter Braxton Worth (29:28): "There is so much uncertainty around the business... I am nowhere close to participating now."
A detailed discussion on Sarepta Therapeutics’ stock movement following FDA updates on their gene therapy for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Karen Feiderman (16:47): "The FDA has recommended that Sarepta can go ahead and resume shipments of that gene therapy Elevidis for patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy who can still walk."
Dan Nathan (18:37): "Street is looking at, you know, $18 as a floor somewhere for at least in here."
Carter Braxton Worth provides an in-depth technical analysis of the market indices, focusing on the S&P 500, Dow, Mid-Cap, and Equal Weight indices.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Carter Braxton Worth (38:37): "If it doesn't happen this week, it's a big telling thing."
Guy Adami (41:17): "You need to stick your landing... getting above a former high and staying above it versus faltering and putting in either a double top or what is known as a bull trap."
The panel examines options trading activities ahead of major earnings reports, particularly focusing on Starbucks.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Angelica Peebles (43:13): "It traded well over two times its average daily put volume... $200,000 in premium being bet on those."
Dan Nathan (43:56): "I'm not sure that this is the quarter where you're going to suddenly feel. In fact, the stock has been meandering for the last six months and I think it will continue to my ass."
Mike Khouw and Angelica Peebles discuss the implications of a steep contango in the VIX futures curve, indicating potential future market volatility.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Angelica Peebles (44:34): "The options market is implying some real choppiness potentially towards the back half of the year."
Mike Khouw (44:34): "If you're able to squeeze that risk premium out further, it is even more incrementally positive for markets."
In the concluding segment, panelists share their final trade recommendations and insights before signing off.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Dan Nathan (45:21): "I still like gaming. I don't know that you have to get too far afield in terms of Chinese tech."
Carter Braxton Worth (45:29): "I'm long as you know, a very mag 7 heavy portfolio. I gotta have some protection buying more triple Q put spread."
This episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive analysis of a critical week for investors, marked by significant earnings reports, pivotal economic data releases, and ongoing US-China trade negotiations. The panel emphasized the importance of monitoring tariff impacts, Fed policies, and specific stock performances, while also highlighting the potential for increased market volatility. Investors are advised to remain vigilant, consider protective strategies, and stay informed as the market navigates through these multifaceted challenges.
For more detailed information, visit Fast Money on CNBC.