CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary: June 20, 2025

Hosted by Melissa Lee and Brian Sullivan, with insights from a panel of top traders including Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso, Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, and guest analysts Paul Sankey and Dan Dolev, the June 20, 2025 episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" delved into several pressing financial topics impacting investors.

1. Federal Reserve's Potential Rate Cut in July

The episode commenced with a robust discussion on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the possibility of a rate cut in July. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks insinuating a potential rate reduction sparked diverse opinions among the panelists.

Steve Liesman highlighted the internal dynamics within the Fed:
"We might have started the day with a big food fight at the Fed and ended up with something of a debate around the dinner table." [03:05]

Mary Daly, the head of the San Francisco Fed, presented a contrasting viewpoint, advocating for a rate cut in the fall instead of July. This divergence reflects the broader debate on balancing inflation control with economic growth.

The market’s reaction was quantified by Steve Liesman, noting:
"July 16.5% is the probability for a rate cut." [04:XX]
He emphasized that while July introduces some uncertainty, September and December hold higher probabilities for rate reductions at 70% and 72%, respectively.

Melissa Lee probed deeper into the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximizing employment. Liesman responded by emphasizing the data-driven approach the Fed is adopting:
"The data will decide for the Fed, will decide for investors." [05:57]

2. Energy Markets and Oil Prices Amid Iran Conflict

Paul Sankey provided an insightful analysis of the energy sector, particularly focusing on the impact of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict on oil supplies. He observed a peculiar trend in treasury yields:
"The yield on the 10-year US treasury and the yield on the two-year note are the exact same level right now as they were in the autumn of 2022." [11:42]
This stagnation suggests market ambivalence amid geopolitical tensions.

Dan Dolev discussed the potential stabilization of oil prices, noting:
"Oil prices, implicitly real, is really backwardated..." [15:XX]
He underscored the resilience of oil supplies, despite intermittent disruptions in regions like Israel, which has recently emerged as a significant gas supplier due to infrastructural damages.

The panel debated the sustainability of current oil prices and the performance of major refiners like Valero and Chevron, highlighting the sector's volatility amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

3. Semiconductor Stocks: AMD's Outperformance

The semiconductor sector was another focal point, with AMD outperforming its peers by garnering a 10% surge this week. This outperformance is attributed to strategic market positioning and recent regulatory developments.

Steve Grasso and Carter Worth discussed AMD's competitive edge over Nvidia, particularly in light of the U.S. preparing to revoke waivers for foreign semiconductor manufacturers using American technology in China. Carter Worth emphasized AMD's relative strength: "I think AMD can gain market share, that's why you see a relative outperformance." [22:30]

The regulatory environment is poised to reshape the competitive landscape, potentially favoring domestic players like AMD over their international counterparts.

4. Building Product Distributor Bidding War: Home Depot vs. QXO

A significant bidding war is unfolding over the acquisition of building products distributor GMS, with Home Depot stepping up its bid in response to QXO's $95.20 per share offer, valuing GMS at approximately $5 billion. Karen Feinerman elaborated on the aggressive strategies employed by dealmakers like Brad Jacobs: "Brad Jacobs started XPO, he started United Rentals, rolled up that industry. Very fragmented." [25:32]

Steve Grasso added,
"Home Depot's bid gives them a tremendous advantage over Lowe's." [27:05]
He pointed out that Home Depot's focus on professional buyers could solidify its market dominance, distinguishing it from competitors like Lowe's.

The bidding war has sent GMS shares soaring by 32% this week, underscoring the high stakes and competitive fervor in the building products distribution sector.

5. Stablecoin Surge and Circle's Meteoric Rise

Circle, a prominent stablecoin issuer, has experienced an extraordinary surge, with its stock soaring by approximately 700% since going public and rising another 20% on the day following the Senate's passage of a federal stablecoin framework bill.

Dan Dolev critiqued Circle’s business model, likening it to an “unregulated money market account” and expressing skepticism about its long-term sustainability:
"It's an instance of insufficient price history. No pattern to interpret." [34:28]

Karen Feinerman echoed caution, advising investors to avoid Circle at its current valuations despite the regulatory milestone:
"I wouldn't touch it, even though I think there's something to it." [38:02]

The episode highlighted the volatile nature of the stablecoin market, driven largely by retail investor sentiment and regulatory advancements, raising questions about the sustainability of such unprecedented stock surges.

6. Apple’s Potential Acquisition of Perplexity AI

In a surprising turn of events, Apple engaged in internal discussions to potentially acquire Perplexity AI, a move also courted by Meta. This would mark Apple’s largest acquisition to date, diverging from its traditional approach of organic growth.

Carter Worth expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of the deal:
"I would be surprised if this deal gets done." [30:26]

Karen Feinerman viewed the acquisition as potentially bullish for Apple, considering its efforts to bolster AI capabilities:
"It's interesting why we hear this story about Perplexity from Meta and then later from Apple." [31:04]

The discussion underscored the strategic importance of artificial intelligence in shaping the future trajectories of tech giants like Apple and Meta.

7. Nike’s Earnings and Options Market Activity

With Nike poised to report its earnings next week, the options market anticipates significant volatility, with implied moves exceeding 8-9%. Michael Coe suggested strategies to navigate this uncertainty: "I bought the October 55 puts and then sold the June 27 weekly 57 strike puts." [35:19]

Carter Worth and Paul Sankey offered divergent views on Nike’s prospects. While some panelists see Nike’s strong brand positioning as a buoyant factor, others express concerns over innovation stagnation and valuation metrics, reflecting the complexities in predicting Nike’s stock movement post-earnings.

8. Darden Restaurants vs. McDonald's Performance

Darden Restaurants, the parent company of Olive Garden, reported impressive growth with same-store sales up 4.6% overall and Olive Garden up by 6.9%. Tim Seymour highlighted the brand's robust performance:
"It's seeing income cohort growth everywhere except for those making under $50,000 annually." [43:57]

In stark contrast, McDonald's faced challenges, receiving multiple downgrades from Wall Street due to concerns over low-income consumer spending. The stock is on track for its worst month since March 2020, reflecting broader economic anxieties affecting consumer spending in the fast-food sector.

Conclusion

The episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive overview of the current financial landscape, touching upon pivotal topics such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, energy market dynamics amid geopolitical tensions, standout performances in the semiconductor sector, aggressive acquisition strategies in building product distribution, and the volatile rise of stablecoin issuer Circle. Additionally, discussions on Apple's potential major acquisition and the contrasting performances of Darden Restaurants and McDonald's underscored the multifaceted nature of today's investment environment.

Throughout the episode, panelists provided nuanced perspectives, backed by real-time data and strategic insights, ensuring a well-rounded analysis for investors navigating these turbulent times.

Note: All timestamps are approximate and correspond to the provided transcript segments.