
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christoper Waller weighing in on the central bank’s next rate move. What they had to say about an interest rate adjustment, and what it will mean for the market this summer. Plus Circle keeps soaring, after the Senate passed its stablecoin bill. What the landmark legislation means for the crypto space. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Brian Sullivan
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Melissa Lee
Risk, including risk of loss.
Brian Sullivan
Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC Member NYSE SIPC.
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A surging semi shares of AMD vastly outperforming the rest of the semiconductor stocks this week. What is behind the move and what does it mean for the current leader in video plus oil's next move? We're going to break down what is next for the commodity as the world watches developments in Iran. Paul Sanki will join us coming up. Plus a bidding war in the DIY world circle keeps soaring to new highs. We are counting down Nike earnings next week. The options action on Nike straight ahead. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa Lee. Happy Friday. We are live, Studio B at the nasdaq. And on your desk tonight, Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso, Tim Seymour and Carter Worth. Welcome everybody. Good to see you. Happy Friday.
Karen Feinerman
Thanks for being here.
Melissa Lee
It wasn't my choice. All right, stocks closing out the holiday shortened week of the flat line with the Dow managing to eke out a gain of about what 3, 10 of 1% s and P and Nasdaq down. Nobody cares. The S and P though down a little bit today. But we're going to focus on the future because what's happening today. So we're coming off a holiday yesterday. We're going into a summer weekend. You got a lot of Iran stuff hanging over there. Nobody thought anybody was going to take big positions today and they did. There were some movers, the biggest laggards, communication services, materials and health care down. Communication down about 1.8%. Get more on that. Energy up 1%. Get more on that in a few minutes with Paul Sankey. Consumer staples and financials also rising. Now the action, or whatever you want to call it came after Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Steve Lispan that the central bank could cut rates at its next meeting in July Steve also sat down with San Francisco Fed head Mary Daly. That was in the last hour. Two big interviews today. Steve joining us now with all the headlines from my guest Steve. Really the daily stuff is fresh. Great job today working all day by the week. What do you think was sort of the main takeaway for you?
Steve Liesman
You know, I think we might have started the day with a big food fight at the Fed and ended up with something of a debate around the dinner table. And let me see if I can explain all this. You know, the idea that Waller comes out and off the bat says, hey, we're going to, I think we should be cutting in July. It sounds like it's dramatically at odds with where Powell is. But then along comes Daily and she says, you know what, I think the fall is a better idea. But she's sort of in the same places where Waller is for those reasons. Let's listen to what she said.
Karen Feinerman
We cannot wait so long that we forget that the fundamentals of the economy.
Tim Seymour
Are moving in a direction where an.
Karen Feinerman
Interest rate adjustment might be necessary.
Steve Liesman
So she says the fall is more reasonable. Waller thinks they ought to maybe think about cutting in July. How big a deal is that? Well, Brian, one way to solve that problem is you come out in July with a statement that strongly hints at the, the idea of a fall rate cut, which is pretty much all the same for the market because what is the Fed gonna do? It's gonna guide the two year lower through that process with a question as to whether or not the 10 year and the longer end comes along with it, which is a question that I have. But the idea that the Fed is a little less on the edge of its seat about tariff inflation is something that daily seem to express in my mind. And Waller certainly says, you know what, it's going to be higher, but we're going to look through it. So we'll see. And in a sense, Brian, we don't have to make up our minds. The data will decide for the Fed, will decide for investors. If the employment numbers come out substantially weaker, the Fed knows what to do. If the inflation numbers are pretty high, well then it's a bit of a bigger question and you can kind of roll the dice. And I'll just tell you where the dice are at this moment. I don't know if we have a full screen on this, but July 16.5% is the probability for a rate cut. So the market buying a little bit of it, I guess that's a little bit higher odds than your odds of rolling, say a hard 10 before you roll a 7 at the craps table. So I don't know how much you might take that bet, Brian, but then we get to 70% for September and 72% for December. So that's where the market still is despite all of the talk today day.
Melissa Lee
I love it. Throwing out the maybe the boxcars double six reference here, Steve, you know we, we often talk about inflation. The last few years the Fed focus has really been about inflation and rightfully so. But to your point, we kind of forget the Fed has two mandates, right? Price stabilization and maximizing employment. So just editorialize. Why not? It's Friday. What do you think is going to be the Fed's calculus between controlling inflation and protecting jobs if we start to see some kind of slowdown or job loss in the economy?
Steve Liesman
Well, I think the obvious and uncontroverted incontrovertible job loss is kind of like force majeure for the Fed. It has to move, it will move in that context and then it has to kind of hope that the tariff impact is one off and then is going to look at not just the tariff stuff. That's kind of the key here is look at the non tariff stuff. How is that doing? The Fed and the economy has gotten a gift. Housing, housing inflation is down. You heard about the softness in the housing market. You had non core, sorry core, non housing services also easing up a bit. We'll watch the goods, we'll watch the tariff that's expected to go up. But watch that and watch inflation expectations. It's pretty clear what the Fed has to do. And I think, you know, you could complain. I know some around the table there do complain about the Fed's transparency. Maybe it talks too much. But the upside of that is you get to look at all the data and kind of know how they think about this stuff and what they're going to do. So there's a lot of transparency. You got to think a little harder than if it was just one person talking. But I think you can make up your mind when the data come in.
Melissa Lee
And I guess we will. And we'll watch that data come in over the next days, weeks, months, whatever it may be. Steve Liesman, long day, Great stuff. All day long. Steve, thank you very much. Okay, we're going to pass from Steve to Steve. So Steve Grasso, I'm going to kick it off with you just because the name was top of mind. Nice.
Steve Grasso
I have Steve Liesman on more.
Melissa Lee
Well listen, two big interviews today. Waller made comments. I just don't know if anybody has any visibility, including Jay Powell on down about where things are going to be given. We don't know what oil prices are going to do, inflation's going to do, tariffs are going to do.
Steve Grasso
So you know, when you look at the Treasury Secretary Bassett, he had mentioned that the Fed is tight and he used that against the two year. So the two year and the fed funds rate two years around 4%. Fed funds rate floating four and a quarter, 450, let's call it 4.3%. If that's the benchmark, we're tight right now. And what are the things that increase inflation? What's a third of CPI? Housing, a third of PPI housing. So the Fed's rolling off 35 billion off of that balance sheet. Karen knows I've been on this for a while, maybe too myopic on it. That increases, increases an inflated tenure, increases an inflated 30 year mortgage. So if we're not going to attack that mortgage rate, then I think that the Fed is just going to remain handcuffed. And the Fed by their nature are always late. They're always looking at the data, they're always looking at something in the rearview mirror. So to Daily's point, I agree with her and I agree with Waller. I think you have to be ahead of the curve here. If you were to cut 25 basis points, you just get static right on that two year. I think that's probably the thing they should do and I can't for the life of me figure out why they just.
Melissa Lee
Well, they did cut rates last year, but 75 basis now though.
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, I sort of come around to your camp of I do think they should cut 25 basis points. I think that we haven't seen the inflation really out of control at all. In fact, it's going right way and it seems to be moderating a fair amount. We don't know the full effect of tariffs but to me it's starting to be that the Fed is so burned from having thought things were transitory that they will never see anything transitory ever again. It has to be absolutely written in stock stone before they move. And maybe that's not quite the right thing. How badly could you really screw up? If you do cut 25 and then inflation's a little higher, all right, then you wait, you wait longer before you cut again. So I'm sort of coming around to.
Melissa Lee
Let'S give Tim Seymour a promotion. He's now not only chairman of the Federal Reserve, he's all the Fed, you are all the Voting members. Does Tim Seymour cut the fed funds rate at the next meeting?
Carter Worth
First of all, Tim Seymour wants to know if Brian Sullivan said it wasn't his choice to be here at the start of the show because I mean I got to tell you that, you know, this is.
Karen Feinerman
But it wasn't ours either. Don't feel bad.
Carter Worth
What I thought I heard all right, I'm chairman of the Fed. Is it a food fight or is it a spat at the dinner table of which we tend to have both in my house. I just, I think this is all consistent with what we heard from Powell. Didn't he say he was not terribly concerned? Wasn't the implication we're not worried about PC at 3.1%. Didn't he come out and say until the labor market starts to, you know, convulse, I'm not that worried about things. And that's why the wait and see 25 basis points. Okay, but, but why. In other words, I think the. We know they're going to be late. He doesn't need to be early. So again, what we heard from Waller today was reinforcing what I think is the outer edge of the dovish Fed. But I think Powell said just as much. The fact that they said they weren't worried about inflation from tariffs was enough for me to think that they are slightly, slightly dovish.
Melissa Lee
You know, Carter, Worth, what's interesting was a lot interesting because they cut rates last year, as we said, we tend to forget about that. But what's interesting is that we had a small moment for about two weeks where rates fell like the 10 year was at what, 35 or 36 and everything sort of happened and then it just shot right back up. Any way to chart the expectations? Because the bond market and the Federal Reserve, I'm not going to say they're saying different things, but they don't necessarily appear to be humming the same tune.
Paul Sankey
Yeah, the key, what you said for a brief moment. There's a lot of brief moments and at the end of the day, and there's just no way around this, Brian, that the yield on the 10 year US treasury and the yield on the two year note are the exact same level right now as they were in the autumn of 2022. It's neither higher.
Melissa Lee
That amazing.
Paul Sankey
Isn't that amazing? Exactly. And so all of the effort and the spinning and, and, and toiling as to which way it's going, it's just, it's nothing. It's vanity and it doesn't matter. One day it will. But it hasn't mattered. And so it's one of the reasons, I suppose, that people are willing to expand the multiple on the general equity market because rates are neither a problem for being too hot or too cold. And that's why I have that bizarre phrase from the child's story of Goldilocks.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. And I think, Carter, we talk, we're going to talk about oil in a second. People will say, well, we don't buy oil, we buy gasoline. That's fair. Most people that are watching and listening, they're not trading bonds, but they may want to buy a home, they may want mortgage rates to go down, they want to buy a car, they want to pay 9%, they want to pay 7%. So any sign, Carter, you see anything, we're going to see a meaningful decline in macro borrowing costs over the next couple of months?
Paul Sankey
No, but I remain in the lower rates camp. I mean, as they say, thank you for choosing a side. You either are buying bonds here or, or you are selling bonds. And I am in the camp that rates go lower. I'm a buyer of us 10 year treasuries.
Melissa Lee
Buyer of us 10 year treasuries maybe. And that means yields going down. Maybe a little bit of good news there. All right, Fed bond discussion done. Let's move on to energy because oil settling a little bit lower today, but it's all on the ongoing Israel, Iran conflict. And your next guest says the commodity oil may be topping out at current levels. Paul Sankey, lead Research. Sankey Research. So topping out. Paul, welcome by the way.
Dan Dolev
Thank you. Very happy.
Melissa Lee
I would assume with a giant Asterix, which implies we don't have a, you know, a bunker buster bomb taking out the Fordo nuclear site.
Dan Dolev
Yeah, I mean, I think that.
Melissa Lee
Or a mine laid in the Persian Gulf.
Dan Dolev
No, I think, look, Brian, what happened was we got chopped up. We were, we were talking short down at 60, you know, and it's gone up to 75. And I think the Wall street view is that we're topping out here that you should fix. But having said that, you know, if you look back at the long history of let's bomb Iran potentially, which has been a 20 year question mark, the question was always, what do you do Day two, you know, you can bomb Iran, but then what are you going to do afterwards? Nobody's going to invade. So you get a fragmented situation, probably with the Revolutionary Guard in charge, and you probably end up with a Houthi style situation. That's the big risk. The dream scenario is obviously that Iran becomes A new democracy and we all live happily ever after. But of course, the history of these things, if you look at something like Venezuela is more like it's going to be an ongoing disaster area because nobody wants to go in there. So I'm very concerned about that side of the Iranian story. Having said that, Iran has never been a reliable supplier of oil, so we're not looking at a situation like an attack on Saudis such as we saw in 19. And we also reflect back that actually you haven't had an oil supply crisis out of the Gulf that actually physically greatly affected oil markets since the 70s.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Dan Dolev
And that, of course, was a missile war against tankers. And that's not off the table. If you just.
Melissa Lee
That would be a super spike in the price. Right. If we get some tanker that's hit by a rocket who just collided. But you could say, well, they just screwed up and they hit a couple days ago.
Dan Dolev
They've got the transponders off. Right. I mean, this is.
Melissa Lee
Well, they off. They got jammed.
Dan Dolev
Right.
Melissa Lee
What people were talking about.
Dan Dolev
So there's clearly issues. But the crazy thing at the moment is this, vast amounts of oil being delivered out of the Gulf in a huge rush to get oil out of the Gulf. And actually the physical outages have been in Israel. So I think this is a real plot twist, which is new this time, which is Israel previously wasn't a major gas supplier. Now it is with the Leviathan platform shut down 2bcf a day, that's actually constraining Egypt's gas supply. It's desperately short energy. And so they're importing oil. An Israeli refinery has been taken out. So that's had a major impact. So I think what people have missed here is that the actual energy impact has been on Israel and that's been what's hurting European gas prices, where again, they're behind on bill.
Melissa Lee
I know everyone wants to jump in, but this is fast money. It's. It's a stock show. So what does this all mean for the Valeros? The world, the Exxons, the world, the.
Dan Dolev
Chevrons, the refiners, the marathons, the volatility is not good. Right. So for the equities, you know, it's almost an argument to be a private refiner because the market's not going to reward you with this level of massive uncertainty. It's very hard to capitalize an oil price here. The market, as you know from the futures point of view, says this isn't going to last. It's heavily backwardated and then it's very flat forever. And one thing I always point out about a flat futures curve for oil is that it's nominally priced. So actually if we're in a world where we're trying to buy gold, hard assets, anything that's hard to defend against inflation, it's interesting that the oil price, implicitly real, is really backwardated, if you know what I mean. So if you would, if you would deflate it, that's a little bit of an involved point. But there seems to just be an absolute conviction on Wall street and I've been as guilty of this as anyone, that this is a peaking out. And in fact a couple of big hedge funds I've been talking to this week just using the argument, hey, everyone thinks fade this, everyone says, you know, this is not going to last. And they're actually tempted to get back in. The original 40 call that we made was about if there's far too much oil, how low do we have to go to shut down US emp? And in fact what happened, as you know, is the US cut back capex at the first sign of trouble. We've never seen them cut back capex with oil in the 60s policies as a preemptive move. And of course now, you know, so the idea that they would just keep producing onwards and onwards and finally that seems to be pretty good demand for oil out there. But it is summer, so I think the real, the real time to get negative oil is always after Labor Day.
Karen Feinerman
So we've seen oil, the energy sector underperform for quite a long time now. Is there some. I understand the potential pervasive bearishness and the backward or, you know, profound backward age that we don't really see that way. Is there anything that makes you bullish aside from everybody?
Dan Dolev
So bear, I mean, I genuinely believe that these oils will generate a cash return to shareholder that's undervalued in the market over time. You know, but this is not a market that buys, you know, the Warren Buffett school of Benjamin Graham style, you know, present value of future free cash flows. And so even with the oil age seemingly lasting a lot longer than we would have thought five years ago, or certainly that was discounted in the market. And 2020, 2021, when it was the energy transition and oil was dead and BP was saying, you know, we're going to have to not be an oil company. Everything that's happened since then tells you the oil age, particularly the gas age, is going to continue for another 50 years and the market's not paying enough for the cash returns that are implicit.
Melissa Lee
I know we got to go. Bp, they tried to change the. Beyond Petroleum.
Dan Dolev
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
I mean, BP has been a disaster for years. The CEO got whacked, like.
Dan Dolev
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
I mean, you get bought by Shell.
Dan Dolev
You know, I'm not sure it. Potentially, it could be a deal ultimately because BP is so, so cheap. Or it could be. For example, we've seen Abu Dhabi get into Australia. You know, who knows how much they're going to pick up around the world in terms of buying assets. But at the moment, I think that Wales. Sawan is very clear that he's going to run Shell to get Shell right. And he's. There's a really good message at Shell which is it's sequential. Let's get Shell right first.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Dan Dolev
Let's think about if we're not being rewarded, moving to the US and maybe one day we'll do a BP deal. But I really don't know why he would confuse the story and get involved with the UK government. And, you know, every time I talk about the UK government, I'm just so disappointed with what they've done with the North Sea and how badly our energy policy has been run. It's been, to me, a disaster.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, well, they found out that you can't run the world on windmills and dreams.
Dan Dolev
Imported wood chips from America. No, no.
Melissa Lee
And that's what they're doing. I loved your comment about Abu Dhabi getting into Australia. They bought Santos or buying Santos, which is also a big producer in Alaska. So Abu Dhabi is now buying into.
Dan Dolev
Alaska Pulse also, by the way, Brian, Mitsubishi Japan buying into US cmp, you know, so other people will see the value in oils if the, if the public markets don't.
Steve Grasso
So I think when, when you really look at these things, do we. Do we say goodbye to the guests?
Melissa Lee
We did, but he's still here. But we're going to say goodbye. So to your point, TV trip, you.
Steve Grasso
Look at the refineries, if you look. If you look at Valero and you look at npc, those are the ones who have outperformed the large integrated names. I think you stay with those names going forward. And if you look at E and P companies, they have really not performed. I'd stay with the refinery.
Melissa Lee
Oh, Marathon had a huge fire at its biggest refinery last Sunday. No one paid attention because what was going on in Iran? Luckily, nobody was hurt or. In the meantime, AMD separating itself from the rest of the semiconductor stocks. AMD stock up 10% this week while the rest of the chip sector up just so why? Well, the Wall Street Journal reporting that the U.S. preparing to revoke certain waivers for foreign semiconductor makers that use American technology in China. So Tim Seymour, explain this to us like we're fifth graders because there's a lot of double negatives in the revoke, not use waivers. What exactly is happening?
Carter Worth
I think this is about promoting the, you know, the American, or, sorry, the US producers here. But I don't think that today's news is part of AMD outperformance. Remember, AMD's underperformed Nvidia by 60% in the last 12 months. This is about both positioning, underperformance. AMD just came out of their event where they. Look, they gave a lot of insight into the 350 and the 400 chips. These are chips people had forgotten about when in the first early days of AI, it was really seen as they were a distant number two, but they were a number two. So to me, this is. I wouldn't call it relative value because Nvidia is cheaper. I think this is relative positioning and. And where I think there's a lot more momentum. Meanwhile, their core business, their CPU business, is actually doing quite well. I don't think today's news, I think it just highlights the fact that there is rotation going on in the chip space. Even though, yes, US producers and those that are strategically aligned with this, this administration and government are going to outperform.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, yeah. I think on a relative basis in video, everything that you said to start off this segment is negative. More negative on a relative basis for.
Melissa Lee
I'm not sure what I said.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, no one is at this point. I can't.
Melissa Lee
I know, but you get my point. They're revoking a waiver.
Steve Grasso
I think I remember you saying you weren't happy to be here.
Melissa Lee
No, I'm kidding.
Steve Grasso
I'm joking.
Melissa Lee
Obviously, my job is a joke. I'll try to make it Friday. Yes, but the idea negatives. The government may revoke the waiver. So right now they allow the tsmc, the world, to sell technology developed in America to China. The idea of this story is that they want to revoke that waiver.
Steve Grasso
Right.
Melissa Lee
Which allows them to sell into China.
Steve Grasso
I think anything that, anything that hurts an Nvidia helps an AMD. AMD is 5% reliant on China revenues. Nvidia is probably 10 to 16% thereabouts. So if AMD can gain market share, that's why you see a relative outperformance. I would stay AMD over Nvidia.
Melissa Lee
Okay, well, it certainly worked. This week. Coming up, a building bidding boom. The nuts and bolts on why Home Depot may be ready to join the battle for a big distributor you probably never heard of. But it's a multi billion dollar deal. Plus, is there any stopping Netflix? Why? Analysts see even more room to run for the streaming company as shares inch back up toward record highs. We got a lot more to do. Fast Money back into.
Brian Sullivan
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Carter Worth
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Melissa Lee
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Tim Seymour
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Brian Sullivan
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Melissa Lee
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Brian Sullivan
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Melissa Lee
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Brian Sullivan
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Melissa Lee
Area limitation and exclusions apply. All right, welcome back. Home Depot reportedly joining the battle to buy building products distributor gms. The offer, reported by the Wall Street Journal, comes after rival QXO bid $95.20 a share for GMS on Wednesday, valuing the company nobody's heard of unless you're a builder at $5 billion. GMS shares closed the day above 100 bucks. They're up 32% this week. Karen, you're watching all of this roll in.
Karen Feinerman
Yes, so I am Long qxo, which is Brad Jacobs next vehicle to roll up an industry.
Melissa Lee
Brad Jacobs started xpo.
Karen Feinerman
He started xpo, he started United Rentals, rolled up that industry. Very fragmented. The whole sort of theory here was this whole home building related distributions companies around America are very fragmented, not run particularly well or efficiently. We can roll them up. We can do so much better. They did their first deal, Beacon. And right after that other targets started trading up like this one. And then they sent a letter with a $95.20 proposal. Allegedly. And I believe it Home Depot put something higher out there. We'll probably see on Monday what that is. Now, QXO bumped their bid for Beacon. I think they have more in their pocket here for sure even though they're trying to talk that down. But we'll see. It's sort of an old fashioned bidding war, I think.
Dan Dolev
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
And Brad Jacobs, like they called him a serial dealmaker. You're right. United Rentals, XPO. Now this Carter, chart this.
Paul Sankey
Well GMS, interestingly it has a high of 105 back in November and today's high 105, it always is a mystery, but it's not meaning I have a lot of friends here in the investment banking world and they you ask them what do you think? Why do you determine the price you might propose to have something taken out? Well, we put it exactly at the all time high where no one who owns the shares could be unhappy. Meaning I'll bet you if it's going to go out, it'll go out right here at 105, not a penny higher. GMS, as to the one Karen was talking about, that has a lot of torque to it day to day.
Brian Sullivan
And I would be long.
Melissa Lee
All right, that's. Anybody else? Grasso, do we have time? Well, we could, yeah.
Steve Grasso
I think to everything that Karen said. On a fundamental side, I think Home Depot this gives them a tremendous advantage over Lowe's, the professional buyer, if they get the bid.
Melissa Lee
I mean they may not maybe Brad.
Karen Feinerman
Jacobs, well, they're gigantic.
Melissa Lee
So comes back in.
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, but Home Depot is a fierce competitor. They can afford to pay whatever they want.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, and the Professional goes to Home Depot by, by an average of 2 to 1. So the the professionals that shop at Home Depot are 50% of their revenue versus Lowe's, which is 25%. This probably just adds to that separation between the two.
Melissa Lee
All right, so you guys nailed it. There's a lot more fast money coming up. Here's what's ahead. Netflix to new highs. Why Wall street sees even more room.
Dan Dolev
To run for the streaming giant and.
Melissa Lee
The high value content analysts say could boost the binging. Plus stablecoin surge. The massive move in a recent IPO as crypto clears a landmark regulation hurdle. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
Brian Sullivan
We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
All right, welcome back. This is really interesting. There's a news alert on Apple, Bloomberg reporting that Apple held internal talks about potentially buying Perplexity Artificial intelligence. Earlier today, CBC confirmed that Meta had approached Perplexity also about a potential deal decided against it went with scale. I Tim Seymour, I think what's fascinating and maybe Perplexity is just shopping itself here, who knows? And letting reporters know. Who knows. But Apple has never been a buyer really of anything. They just build it. This would be clearly the biggest deal Apple's ever done.
Carter Worth
I mean, if anything, you're selling Google on this news. But I think this is not surprising to hear that they've kicked the tires. Whether this is a deal they find out right isn't their biggest deal. Beats at this point. So and all we do is talk about where Apple is not positioned in AI. So interesting headline, but right. Who hasn't looked? I would be surprised if this deal gets done. But that's what happens when you make bold Statements on live tv. I have no idea.
Melissa Lee
Well, that's kind of what we do. I mean. But Karen, my point would be. And listen, Perplexity, private company, there's AI competitors. We, I don't think it's. We know there's going. You don't need to use. I know there's going to be deal making in this space. There has to be. There's too many providers. Would it, would it be bullish for Apple? Would it be neutral for Apple, negative for Apple? Do we have any idea?
Karen Feinerman
I'm thinking sort of bullish. I mean, so much has been made of Apple not having, you know, that just so far behind in AI. It's interesting why we hear this story about Perplexity from Metta and then later from Apple. I mean, I think the last round of Perplexity was done at 14 billion.
Melissa Lee
I'm looking at now.
Karen Feinerman
14 billion.
Melissa Lee
14 billion.
Karen Feinerman
To your point, how big of a deal for Apple? That'd be way bigger.
Melissa Lee
What would they pay? What would they pay if the mult. And we're going to just. We call this wild speculation, I think on national TV. So if perplexity is valued at 14 as of December, the last funding round, it's more than that now. What would the multiple have to be to buy. How much would Apple Pay for a 14 billion valuation? Company 25.
Steve Grasso
See, this is why we get into whether it's bullish or bearish for Apple because Apple.
Melissa Lee
Right to the price.
Steve Grasso
But Apple could pay royalties. Right. So that was the normal thing. The conversation was perfect.
Karen Feinerman
Why buy it when you could just.
Steve Grasso
Why buy when you could rent it, pay per use or pay per click or pay for whatever?
Melissa Lee
Because then you could.
Steve Grasso
Same way with Google.
Melissa Lee
You can control the content.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, and that's assuming they want to control the content.
Melissa Lee
Well, BBC just sued Perplexity alleging who knows what's right.
Steve Grasso
But a royalty deal will get. Doesn't even need approval.
Steve Liesman
Right.
Steve Grasso
So you don't need any regulatory approval the same way that you would need.
Melissa Lee
Sounds like Grasso the investment banker selling Apple. Don't make the deal.
Steve Grasso
I would say don't make the bid.
Melissa Lee
Because we just talked about.
Steve Grasso
Beats was a $3 billion acquisition. This is going. The valuation is 14 billion. Is it smart to do right now when you usually either rent it or imitate? They're never innovative. They replicate. They're replicated. And this would be a break from that tradition of replicating. I don't know, it's, it's.
Melissa Lee
They built the iPhone. I mean, they did innovate. That they killed the BlackBerry. Remember, the BlackBerry was great.
Steve Grasso
Fair. But that guy's not here anymore.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, no, he's not. Steve Jobs. All right, coming up is the sum. Is this really going to be the summer of stablecoin? The stock Circle hitting a record after a record after a record. What is really driving the game? We're gonna talk about it coming up. All right, let's do a quick reset. Stocks closing out, the holiday shortened week. The Dow up, I mean, 35 points. That's it. That's point 08% yesterday, a holiday, the weekend summer. We don't know what's going to happen with Iran. Nobody's making big commitments. The NASDAQ did fall a little bit today, about 1/2 of 1%. By the way, your top performer was Kroger, the grocery store chain, up 10%, nearly 10%. Company raising its full year sales outlook. The grocer's interim CEO saying that Kroger is drawing shoppers seeking lower prices as opposed to shoppers seeking higher prices. Either way, that's I guess, what would you expect them to say? All right. Meantime, shares of Stablecoin issuer Circle continuing their surge, up another 20% today. Senate passing what some call the genius bill. That's how they named it will establish a Federal framework for US dollar peg stablecoins circle up about 700% since going public. Good. Your next guest says there's a lot of FOMO fear of missing out around stablecoins and Circle. Dan Dolev, managing director and senior fintech analyst at Mizuho Daniel, I don't, I'm going to be honest, I don't have any idea what to say about Circle anymore. They buy Treasuries and issue people money. It seems like a money market ish account. What am I missing here?
Brian Sullivan
I don't think you're. Hey, hey, Brian. Good to have. It's good to be on the show. I don't think you guys are missing anything. It's basically like behaving like an unregulated money market account. And I agree with you. There's a lot of FOMO around stablecoins. You're seeing that in the movements in Visa and MasterCard, which I think are unmerited. I think it's, it's going to settle itself out, you know, come full circle at some point when people realize that the business model is really just money markets.
Karen Feinerman
It's Darren, thanks for being on. It's Karen. So, I mean, aside from the excitement around the bill and all of that, I mean, this looks like fairly Classic squeeze. If you look at where the options are priced and you know, do you see it, I mean, do you see people who are, who legitimately think there's a valuation here at this level versus the whatever 40 it was two weeks ago?
Brian Sullivan
It's a great point. It feels to me like it's very retail driven and very story and narrative driven. I don't have, I don't have a particular view on, on Circle, we don't cover it, but just in general, there's so much buzz and other regulation and you have the Secretary, the Treasury Secretary saying it's a 3.7 trillion dollar market or TAM. All these things drive up stocks in general and drive down the potential stocks that are getting disrupted, even though we don't think they are.
Steve Grasso
So Dan, getting back to where you started the, the interview off, 99% of the revenues were driven by reserves backing. So to Brian's point, Treasuries. So if that interest rate does come down, that should have a dramatic impact, you would think, in a normalized world.
Brian Sullivan
On the stock, you nailed it, 100%. People don't realize that it's an interest rate play and they give you some of the, you know, they, they give the consumers some of the love. Right. So if you're Coinbase and you're Mint or you're issuing or you're, you're, you're helping them sell the coins, Coinbase is getting some of the love or a lot of the love. It's actually better for Coinbase than for Circle. We can talk about it another time. Once rates come down, it's going to be very difficult to make money in stablecoins in this environment.
Melissa Lee
Really, it's a fascinating story. I have no idea where it's going to go, but you seem to have an idea. Dan Dolov, we appreciate that view, Dan, thank you very much. Tim, what is your take on Circle? I rarely get left speechless, but with this one I am.
Carter Worth
Well, again, I think we framed it pretty well. The dynamic around the margin of that business is in its core business is not there. The leverage that's applied to the model is partly what people are doing here. And assuming that things only move in one direction for the company. Dan brought like I'm long Coinbase and I think this was a fantastic week for Coinbase. Again, the genius act, the dynamics that I think people don't appreciate in Coinbase is that Base is a major infrastructure platform for stablecoins and for the digital world. So it's not just the on ramp in terms of People trading digital stuff and I think that's why this stock Coinbase had a huge week and I think that's the play.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Carter, you want to get in there?
Paul Sankey
Well, Coinbase says a pattern goes is excellent. Right. You've got all the things you want. Your bullish price volume correlation, great relative strength and I would think it's headed immediately higher as to circle, of course that's an instance of insufficient price history. No pattern to interpret.
Melissa Lee
But final word, Karen, very quickly you think there is, there's a lot of short, a lot of stuff under the hood here.
Karen Feinerman
Yes, yes. I wouldn't touch it, even though I think there's something to it. We'll see great transformation.
Melissa Lee
But at this price you wouldn't touch with Grasso's money. There you go. Coming up, we're going to be lacing up for Nike's results next week. Mike Coh is bringing us an options trade for when the numbers cross that trade and Mike, when we come back. All right. Nike is one of the biggest names reporting their earnings next week. Options traders are betting that the stock will take off after Thursday's report. Michael Coe joining us now. Mike, what are you seeing in the options market? Yeah, we're seeing some pretty big anticipated moves. Whether it's going to be higher or lower, that of course still remains a bit of a question. Right now the options market is implying that the one day earnings related move is going to be more than 8% and more than 9% by the end of next week after they report. You know, the way I think you might want to think about trading, this is buying some longer dated. I was looking at the October 55 puts. I bought those today and then sold the June 27 weekly 57 strike puts. A higher strike put against it to collect some premium. That was the way to essentially try to sell some of that elevated premium. This is kind of a neutral bet because I don't think this stock is technically out of the woods. But there's somebody on the panel right now who's a lot more qualified than I am to speak to that. And that would be Carter.
Paul Sankey
Well, very kind. So let's talk about it. We have two charts. If it's productive and helpful, let's pull them up and try to figure it out together. The first thing that's quite shocking is that I mean the stock is the exact same price it was at its Covid low. I mean there are other beaten down great franchises or brands like Disney, but not even no one is as bad as this. So the Question is, well, isn't that the opportunity? Isn't that the reason it's cheap? Shouldn't one just hold one's nose? There's no technique known for just buying a stock in a downtrend just because one thinks it's cheap usually it's right for it to base and bottom. That's what a bearish to bullish reversal is. Be willing to miss some of the moves. So again quite symmetrical. It's 60 at the COVID low. It triples to 180, collapses back to 60. We have a comparative chart that also is informative and this is looking at the shares relative to the aspects and therein lies the tail. It's shocking but again it's usually right to resist buying anything that's in an established downtrend. Be willing to wait and miss some of the prospective move and then go after it.
Melissa Lee
Tim?
Carter Worth
I'd go after it. I'd certainly go after it. Relative to some of the high flyers in the space that I think have a valuation that doesn't make sense. It's hard to say Nike's cheap. I don't think Carter saying that and it's not really how he rolls. I'll say it's not cheap but that's not really the call. If, if, if Nike's dead on innovation and we're paying, you know, zero, I guess in terms of the valuation towards their position as the largest athleisure brand in the world then I think there's a lot of other names you want to sell here. I think Nike, the digestion of lack of innovation and China concerns. I think it's well in the price and therefore I think there are other names that if I wanted to own Nike I think I could be hedging on the downside and I do think whether it's a Deckers or an on on I know there are hot brands. You're probably wearing some right now, Brian. But I, I'm not afraid of owning Nike here.
Steve Grasso
There's a lot of non public and public competition in Nike. That's the problem. They've lost their innovation stock, tried to rally, it failed. Nike should probably think about buying Perplexity. That would be a good purchase and.
Melissa Lee
I'm wearing and they should ask why.
Steve Grasso
Their stock is not doing well. That would be my first question on Perplexity.
Melissa Lee
There you go. I'm wearing Rockports, Tim. It's a rock port. It's a young man shirts. It's a good look for you. Coming up, serving up some restaurant action. The Numbers from Darden's latest report and why McDonald's stock been terrible late. Maybe closing Red Lobster was a great decision. Darden restaurants that stock closing at a record high today. They beat earnings estimates. They gave an upbeat forecast for the year ahead. Kate Rogers what is Darden doing right?
Tim Seymour
Hey Brian. So it was a beat on the top and bottom lines for Olive Garden parent Darden driven by its same store sales gains. They were up 4.6% overall. Olive Garden up 6.9%. Really leading the pack. Darden stock is among the best performers in the sector for the year. It's up around 20% year to date alongside Papa John's and just behind Wingstop, which is the best performing name so far. It's also far outperforming other casual names like Bloomin brands down around 25% year to date. Texas Roadhouse is up just around 6%. And the category as a whole is relatively strong right now in casual due to both demographic exposure and the appearance of value. The proposition of simply getting more for your money is really resonating in the casual space. More so than fast food and quick service. Darden exec said this one morning that casual is just a good deal for the money, as they put it. It's seeing income cohort growth everywhere except for those making under $50,000 annually. And it's also seeing particularly strong growth from 150k and up households. And on that topic getting hit again today, McDonald's, it got multiple downgrades last week from Wall street with concerns over that low income consumer. The stock had its fifth straight negative week, worst week since midmark March rather. And it's also on track for its worst month since March of 2020. Wall street across the board just concerned about the momentum with the low income consumer. Although there are a few catalysts for McDonald's in the weeks and months to come, including the snack wrap coming back on July 10th, which I know a lot of people are looking forward to.
Melissa Lee
This nation is chronically underserved food and we need to have a fourth meal. Kate Rogers, thank you very much Steve Grasso but on a serious level, listen, the reality is this. You could pay whatever 12, 15 bucks at a fast food place or go to a fast casual place, sit down, spend a little more, but have more of an that trend that we've talked about, I know Kramer's talked about it showing up in the numbers.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, well I think Darden is that sweet spot between as you said, the sit down fast casual I think is by the way, Olive Garden is probably one of my favorite restaurants growing up.
Melissa Lee
Really.
Steve Grasso
I'm not kidding.
Melissa Lee
It's a Grasso family Christmas Italian tradition.
Steve Grasso
I grew up half in the Bronx than in Westchester and let me tell you some the Olive Garden. If I could drag my kids to Olive Garden right now, they would have.
Melissa Lee
The best delicious and you get a lot.
Steve Grasso
Let's look at the stock though.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, the stock's been great.
Steve Grasso
McDonald's not chart looks spectacular on that. On that stock. And if you look at Shake Shack, this is coming to an interesting point to the January 2025 level where it stalled and rolled over. If we could pass that level, I think Shake Shack is a buy as well.
Melissa Lee
Let's go now to Carbonara. Seymour. Tim, what do you. What do you have to say? Darden. Everyone gave him grief for shut down Red Lobster and now the stock's at a record high.
Carter Worth
First of all, I had no idea Steve was an Olive Garden aficionado.
Brian Sullivan
So.
Steve Grasso
Breadsticks.
Carter Worth
As someone that's been a longtime holder of McDonald's and doesn't hold it here, but recognizes to me just how they perform almost in all seasons and I think this is a great time to be started to pick up on McDonald's the sentiment around this stock, you know, and it's a 20% move now which finally is kind of caught up to it. I think it's interesting.
Melissa Lee
It is and it's been interesting. McDonald's, that's for a different show. We're going to take a short break. Final trades next. Tim Seymour, kick off. Final trades.
Carter Worth
First of all, Brian, you should think about some chess king with your Rockports.
Steve Grasso
Or whatever they're called.
Carter Worth
Total Energy European integrators are 10% free cash flow yield at $65. Oil they're worth owning.
Melissa Lee
Carter Worth.
Paul Sankey
I'm a seller of oil and I think we're headed back below $70 a barrel. You can use us O as the vehicle.
Karen Feinerman
Aaron, first of all, thank you for being here. Hard work on a Friday night. I like Lilly down on the story of UK not covering their Alzheimer's, but I like it.
Steve Grasso
Walmart back on the bullet train.
Melissa Lee
Love it, guys. Thanks for taking it easy on me. I appreciate it. By the way, long live chess king. Mad money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Courage.
Brian Sullivan
I learned it from my adoptive mom.
Melissa Lee
Hold my hand. You hold my hand.
Brian Sullivan
Learn about adopting a teen from foster care at adoptuskids.
Melissa Lee
Org.
Brian Sullivan
You can't imagine the reward brought to you by Adopt Us Kids, the UG Council.
CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary: June 20, 2025
Hosted by Melissa Lee and Brian Sullivan, with insights from a panel of top traders including Karen Feinerman, Steve Grasso, Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, and guest analysts Paul Sankey and Dan Dolev, the June 20, 2025 episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" delved into several pressing financial topics impacting investors.
The episode commenced with a robust discussion on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the possibility of a rate cut in July. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks insinuating a potential rate reduction sparked diverse opinions among the panelists.
Steve Liesman highlighted the internal dynamics within the Fed:
"We might have started the day with a big food fight at the Fed and ended up with something of a debate around the dinner table." [03:05]
Mary Daly, the head of the San Francisco Fed, presented a contrasting viewpoint, advocating for a rate cut in the fall instead of July. This divergence reflects the broader debate on balancing inflation control with economic growth.
The market’s reaction was quantified by Steve Liesman, noting:
"July 16.5% is the probability for a rate cut." [04:XX]
He emphasized that while July introduces some uncertainty, September and December hold higher probabilities for rate reductions at 70% and 72%, respectively.
Melissa Lee probed deeper into the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximizing employment. Liesman responded by emphasizing the data-driven approach the Fed is adopting:
"The data will decide for the Fed, will decide for investors." [05:57]
Paul Sankey provided an insightful analysis of the energy sector, particularly focusing on the impact of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict on oil supplies. He observed a peculiar trend in treasury yields:
"The yield on the 10-year US treasury and the yield on the two-year note are the exact same level right now as they were in the autumn of 2022." [11:42]
This stagnation suggests market ambivalence amid geopolitical tensions.
Dan Dolev discussed the potential stabilization of oil prices, noting:
"Oil prices, implicitly real, is really backwardated..." [15:XX]
He underscored the resilience of oil supplies, despite intermittent disruptions in regions like Israel, which has recently emerged as a significant gas supplier due to infrastructural damages.
The panel debated the sustainability of current oil prices and the performance of major refiners like Valero and Chevron, highlighting the sector's volatility amidst geopolitical uncertainties.
The semiconductor sector was another focal point, with AMD outperforming its peers by garnering a 10% surge this week. This outperformance is attributed to strategic market positioning and recent regulatory developments.
Steve Grasso and Carter Worth discussed AMD's competitive edge over Nvidia, particularly in light of the U.S. preparing to revoke waivers for foreign semiconductor manufacturers using American technology in China. Carter Worth emphasized AMD's relative strength: "I think AMD can gain market share, that's why you see a relative outperformance." [22:30]
The regulatory environment is poised to reshape the competitive landscape, potentially favoring domestic players like AMD over their international counterparts.
A significant bidding war is unfolding over the acquisition of building products distributor GMS, with Home Depot stepping up its bid in response to QXO's $95.20 per share offer, valuing GMS at approximately $5 billion. Karen Feinerman elaborated on the aggressive strategies employed by dealmakers like Brad Jacobs: "Brad Jacobs started XPO, he started United Rentals, rolled up that industry. Very fragmented." [25:32]
Steve Grasso added,
"Home Depot's bid gives them a tremendous advantage over Lowe's." [27:05]
He pointed out that Home Depot's focus on professional buyers could solidify its market dominance, distinguishing it from competitors like Lowe's.
The bidding war has sent GMS shares soaring by 32% this week, underscoring the high stakes and competitive fervor in the building products distribution sector.
Circle, a prominent stablecoin issuer, has experienced an extraordinary surge, with its stock soaring by approximately 700% since going public and rising another 20% on the day following the Senate's passage of a federal stablecoin framework bill.
Dan Dolev critiqued Circle’s business model, likening it to an “unregulated money market account” and expressing skepticism about its long-term sustainability:
"It's an instance of insufficient price history. No pattern to interpret." [34:28]
Karen Feinerman echoed caution, advising investors to avoid Circle at its current valuations despite the regulatory milestone:
"I wouldn't touch it, even though I think there's something to it." [38:02]
The episode highlighted the volatile nature of the stablecoin market, driven largely by retail investor sentiment and regulatory advancements, raising questions about the sustainability of such unprecedented stock surges.
In a surprising turn of events, Apple engaged in internal discussions to potentially acquire Perplexity AI, a move also courted by Meta. This would mark Apple’s largest acquisition to date, diverging from its traditional approach of organic growth.
Carter Worth expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of the deal:
"I would be surprised if this deal gets done." [30:26]
Karen Feinerman viewed the acquisition as potentially bullish for Apple, considering its efforts to bolster AI capabilities:
"It's interesting why we hear this story about Perplexity from Meta and then later from Apple." [31:04]
The discussion underscored the strategic importance of artificial intelligence in shaping the future trajectories of tech giants like Apple and Meta.
With Nike poised to report its earnings next week, the options market anticipates significant volatility, with implied moves exceeding 8-9%. Michael Coe suggested strategies to navigate this uncertainty: "I bought the October 55 puts and then sold the June 27 weekly 57 strike puts." [35:19]
Carter Worth and Paul Sankey offered divergent views on Nike’s prospects. While some panelists see Nike’s strong brand positioning as a buoyant factor, others express concerns over innovation stagnation and valuation metrics, reflecting the complexities in predicting Nike’s stock movement post-earnings.
Darden Restaurants, the parent company of Olive Garden, reported impressive growth with same-store sales up 4.6% overall and Olive Garden up by 6.9%. Tim Seymour highlighted the brand's robust performance:
"It's seeing income cohort growth everywhere except for those making under $50,000 annually." [43:57]
In stark contrast, McDonald's faced challenges, receiving multiple downgrades from Wall Street due to concerns over low-income consumer spending. The stock is on track for its worst month since March 2020, reflecting broader economic anxieties affecting consumer spending in the fast-food sector.
The episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive overview of the current financial landscape, touching upon pivotal topics such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, energy market dynamics amid geopolitical tensions, standout performances in the semiconductor sector, aggressive acquisition strategies in building product distribution, and the volatile rise of stablecoin issuer Circle. Additionally, discussions on Apple's potential major acquisition and the contrasting performances of Darden Restaurants and McDonald's underscored the multifaceted nature of today's investment environment.
Throughout the episode, panelists provided nuanced perspectives, backed by real-time data and strategic insights, ensuring a well-rounded analysis for investors navigating these turbulent times.
Note: All timestamps are approximate and correspond to the provided transcript segments.