CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary

Episode Title: A September Slump Or Fall Fury?... And Options Strategy Ahead Of Earnings
Air Date: August 29, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee (and CNBC roundtable: Steve Grasso, Mike Khouw, Julie Biel, plus guest experts)
Location: Live from NASDAQ MarketSite, Times Square, NYC

Overview

This episode dives into pressing questions for investors as the markets close out August and look toward a notoriously volatile September. The Fast Money roundtable discusses whether the market's “summer sizzle” is losing steam or if a rally could be ahead, elaborates on the impact of recent earnings, tariff rulings, options strategies for key tickers like Broadcom, Lululemon, and Salesforce, the ongoing debate over Fed independence amidst political drama, and what to watch in crypto and sports betting as autumn approaches. Real-time breaking news on a US court ruling Trump-era tariffs illegal adds urgency.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. August Market Recap & September Outlook

[00:31 – 07:00]

• Stocks end the week with losses but remain up for August: S&P and Dow both log their fourth straight positive month; Nasdaq posts a fifth straight monthly gain.
• Semiconductor Selloff: SMH (semiconductor ETF) experiences its worst day since April, notably due to a 19% plunge in Marvell Technology (sympathy declines for Nvidia, Broadcom).
• Small Caps: Russell 2000 posts its best month in a year but is still below last November's highs.

Steve Grasso ([02:50]):

“When you start… I pull the lens back... Look at that selloff we had in April, look at how fast we regain that selloff. It was the fastest in history... So, I think we're going to have a little bit of temporary weakness in September, maybe for about two weeks… then depending how those pan out… do we get the rate cut?... And then I think we get back on the horse in late October.”

Julie Biel ([04:21]):

“The earnings growth for the Russell just really hasn’t been there… 40% non-earners. So it doesn’t surprise me that it’s been [a] persistent underperformer. This is a rotation based off value and people chasing cyclicals, feeling less worried about tariff fallout.”

2. Volatility, Seasonality, and Fed Focus

[05:09 – 07:29]

• September is historically weak for stocks (S&P falls ~1.1% on average historically), with volatility (VIX) still low but expected to tick higher.
• Fed’s upcoming rate decision is the major market focus; FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) could be a volatility catalyst.

Mike Khouw ([05:52]):

“September is a slightly above-average month in terms of volatility. October even more so, and interestingly November as well… Right now I still think the setup is pretty good... Like Steve though, I think everybody’s eyes are going to be on the FOMC in September and if they get disappointed that could see that uptick in volatility and the pullback that you just referenced.”

3. Federal Reserve Independence and Lisa Cook Case

[07:56 – 13:39]

• Breaking news on the legal fight over President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook; debate over the meaning of “for cause” in Fed statutes.
• Arguments on the politicization of the Fed and whether Fed officials might react to political pressure.

Eamon Javers ([08:00]):

“The hearing today was basically two hours of really metaphysical debate over what the idea, what the meaning of for cause is in the statute… The government arguing … the president has got an enormous amount of discretion.”

Ben Emons, Fed Watch Advisors ([12:17]):

“It does matter because if it [the Fed] gets really influenced by outside forces... you could debate about whether that is politically influenced... Ultimately, the markets... care about what’s the Fed going to do... Are you going to cut or not?”

• Discussion on whether the Fed might act to spite presidential pressure on its independence; consensus is Fed will follow data, particularly labor and inflation.

Julie Biel ([17:16]):

“It was really clear from Jay Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole that we are now moving to an employment focus rather than an inflation focus… if you look at the CPI data... you’re seeing real pricing pressure… There’s wage pressure as well. And I don’t think anyone’s really talking about that part.”

Mike Khouw ([19:05]):

“I’d like to think that those who are making decisions at the Fed will be able to recognize those weaknesses and will focus principally on policy... when people think about rates and how difficult that’s making certain sectors of the economy, the housing market… that isn’t anchored by the Fed funds target rate… that’s going to be anchored by the 10 year… more closely influenced by what the Fed does with its balance sheet.”

4. Earnings Highlights: Affirm, Caterpillar, and Market Themes

[22:13 – 25:39]

• Affirm (+10%): Beats earnings/revenue, posts profitability after prior years of losses; active users and merchants up 24%, active card users up 97%. However, still “making up lost ground” since the COVID boom.

Steve Grasso ([24:00]):

“There is a need for this and they are filling a niche… But, if you look back on a five-year chart... just making up all the ground that it lost in the last four years... I would probably scale out some profit on these pops that you see.”

• Caterpillar (–4%): Warns tariffs will cost $1.8B this year, up from $1.5B.

Julie Biel ([25:05]):

“More and more evidence on the industrial side of companies that are having a hard time managing through these tariffs... many investors seem to be willing to look through some of the tariff pressure. This is kind of the first time investors are stopping and saying, you know what, actually this is a problem.”

5. Crypto’s Rough Week & Market Relationship

[27:03 – 29:27]

• Bitcoin: Down ~7% for the week; Ethereum down more (double digits), despite both recently hitting records.
• Crypto has become correlated to broader market weakness, especially in high-volatility/seasonal periods.

Steve Grasso ([27:20]):

“Crypto is correlated… If the VIX is going to shoot up... Bitcoin and Ethereum should probably sell off. Seasonality is a weak time of year for both of the top cryptocurrencies... But Etherium hit a record high. Bitcoin hit a record high recently... I think you’re going to see a real fast push in the last two months of the year where these both can go much higher.”

Mike Khouw ([28:37]):

“...this show is called Fast Money. The actors in the bitcoin/crypto space are going to be amongst the fastest... it’s very high beta... you would necessarily then also believe that this is an area where that volatility would be even greater... But overall I still think that the fundamentals remain intact. So I rather think of these as a little bit of an opportunity, although the short term technicals don’t look so hot right now.”

6. Options Market Strategy Ahead of Key Earnings

[31:22 – 32:58]

• Broadcom, Salesforce, Lululemon: All set to report.
  • Broadcom: Market implying a 6% move post-earnings.
  • Salesforce: 7.4%
  • Lululemon: 12%
• Salesforce Options Trade ([31:44]):
  • Sell October 10th 225 puts (cash covered) for $3.55 each. If assigned, you're buying below 52-week low.
  • Alternatively, sell 285/290 call spread for nearly $5, yielding a 1.8% standstill rate.

Mike Khouw:

“One of the opportunities might be found actually in Salesforce... sell the October 10th weekly options, the 225 puts... for those interested in doing something a little more complicated, you could also sell the 285/290 call spread... a nice 1.8% standstill rate of return.”

• Lululemon: Facing margin issues from tariffs and intense new competition.
  Julie Biel ([32:58]):

“They have so much competition, it’s been brutal for them... but if they end up in better footing, it’s great because right now, at least on the buy side, people are haters.”

7. Breaking News: US Appeals Court Rules Trump Tariffs Illegal

[34:48 – 42:33]

• Ruling could have major implications for tariff-exposed industries and the broader market—though a Supreme Court appeal is expected and uncertainty remains.
• The immediate market reaction is likely to be muted until the legal process is resolved, but heavily tariff-impacted stocks could pop.

Megan Cassella, CNBC ([38:01]):

“The appeals court agrees... that because this statute does not say that this is an international emergency, he shouldn’t be allowed to impose tariffs via executive order.... What we don’t know right now... is what happens to the tariffs in the meantime... the status of the tariffs at the moment is still in limbo.”

Host ([39:57]):

“The sound you hear is the collective scream of every supply chain manager in the United States… if the tariffs are seen to have held this market back at all… and the tariffs are now wiped off, I don’t see how this is anything other… than a market ripping headline... unless… the Supreme Court overturns it.”

8. Sports Betting Outlook for the Fall

[43:14 – 47:57]

• Football season marks a growth surge for US sportsbooks; Americans are expected to wager $30B this NFL season.
• Leaders: FanDuel (Flutter), DraftKings, Bet MGM, Caesars.
• Industry facing new forms of competition (prediction markets, sweepstakes, offshore books).
• DraftKings and Flutter remain analyst favorites due to size, brand, and growth prospects.

Stephen Grambling (Morgan Stanley) ([44:56]):

“DraftKings and FanDuel… have been able to hold on to their market leading position... one of the best single growth stories in all of consumer... we still see a path for the overall market to actually get to a $25B GGR market beyond 2027.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Resilience ([02:50]):
  “The show is called Fast Money. ... When you really look at how these things collapse on each other, you have bull, you have bear markets that collapse on each other. They cycle through really quickly.” — Steve Grasso

• On Tariffs & Market Impact ([25:05]):
  “Along with the automakers, we are seeing more and more evidence on the industrial side of companies that are having a hard time managing through these tariffs. … investors are stopping and saying, you know what, actually this is a problem.” — Julie Biel

• On Breaking Tariff Ruling ([39:57]):
  “The sound you hear is the collective scream of every supply chain manager in the United States...” — Host

• On Lululemon Competition ([34:00]):
  “No asset’s so bad that price doesn’t matter. Price does matter... the returns on equity in this business are still very high. They do have some part of a loyal fan base. ...if they can get this ship turned around, it might be an interesting candidate.” — Julie Biel

• On Crypto Volatility ([28:37]):
  “The actors that are in the bitcoin crypto space are going to be amongst the fastest market participants there are and it’s very high beta. ...the fundamentals remain intact both for Bitcoin and for Ethereum.” — Mike Khouw

Important Segments and Timestamps

• August Market Recap and Small Caps: [00:31 – 05:09]
• Fed, Volatility, Rate Cut Odds: [05:09 – 07:29]
• Lisa Cook Federal Reserve Legal Battle: [07:56 – 13:39]
• Fed Policy, Balance Sheet & Rate Decision: [13:39 – 20:18]
• Earnings: Affirm & Caterpillar (Tariffs): [22:13 – 25:39]
• Crypto Market Update: [27:03 – 29:27]
• Options Strategy for Earnings: [31:22 – 32:58]
• Lululemon & Retail Market Discussion: [32:58 – 34:34]
• Court Ruling on Tariffs: [34:48 – 42:33]
• Sports Betting Sector Outlook: [43:14 – 47:57]
• Final Trades: [47:57 – 48:40]
  • Julie: Encino (mortgage origination software)
  • Mike: S&P call options for September
  • Steve: DraftKings

Tone and Style

• Lively, actionable, frank, occasionally irreverent with Friday humor.
• Panelists candid about biases, with spirited back-and-forth and breaking news.
• Frequent “big picture” reminders and technical analysis balanced with practical trading advice.

Conclusion

The Fast Money team concludes the week by urging viewers to pay close attention to September seasonality, the upcoming FOMC rate decision, inflection points for options earnings strategies, and breaking legal developments on tariffs (with implications for everything from Caterpillar to the entire supply chain). With sports betting about to explode for NFL and college, and crypto expected to remain volatile, the fall market narrative is primed for headline-driven moves and sharp rotations.