
Fast Money Live is back! Die-hard fans from all over the country and globe join Melissa and the traders for a jam-packed show. Questions and answers on gold, crypto, international investing, and much much more. Plus Stocks turn lower as President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk trade jabs online. And Former JPMorgan Chief Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic warns of a major market pullback. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
As America's leading business lender, bank of America is on your corner and in your corner. With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation, we help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn more@bankofamerica.com LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Guy Adami
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Melissa Lee
And execute your trading strategies to help keep up with the markets.
Guy Adami
Because better trading starts with finding what you need fast. Your Fidelity Trading Dashboard is ready now. For free, visit fidelity.com tradingdashboard Investing involves risk, including risk.
Melissa Lee
Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE, SIPC live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is a very special night here on Fast Money. We are joined by a full house of our most faithful and die hard fans. Take a look at them, folks. Joining us from all across the country and even the other side of the globe. Guy Adami here is all geeked up to join you all for your questions shortly. But first, here's what's on tap tonight. Musk versus Trump. The relationship between the most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world ripping at the seams as they wage a knockdown drag out war boards on their respective social media platforms. The devastating impact on Tesla today, the ripple effect on the markets and how this D.C. divorce could derail Trump's tax bill. We'll get the latest from Washington. Plus, we're joined by former Trump NSC director and current IBM Vice chair Gary Cohn to break it all down. Then, a market warning. Marco Polanovic will join us in his first TV interview since leaving JP Morgan. Why he thinks stocks are about to see a pullback and how you should position yourself right now. And later, earnings from Broadcom and Luke Lululemon Stablecoin issuer circle with a monster market debut. And you've got questions. We've got answers. The traders take on our fans Burning questions live. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. Great night. Great audience that we have.
Karen Feinerman
It's amazing.
Melissa Lee
The energy in the room is off the charts.
Karen Feinerman
Somebody from Australia you mentioned it across the globe. Australia is here. It's amazing. Over 30 states. Mary Duffy and her team did a tremendous job putting this together and they.
Dan Nathan
Brought some news flow. I mean I tell we like to bring some volatility to markets and it's an exciting night.
Melissa Lee
Take a look at that group. Good looking group we got there. We'll get to your questions in just a minute. Meantime, we've got to get back to that social media smackdown between President Trump and Elon Musk. The two men trading insults over the course of the afternoon. Just in the last hour, the Tesla CEO saying on X that Trump's tariffs will cause a recession in the second half of the year. And agreeing with the Post calling for the President to be impeached and replaced by JD Vance. His post coming after the President said on Truth Social that Musk just went crazy and threatened to axe the Tesla CEO's government contracts. That of course, in response to Musk taking credit for Trump's election win. Tesla shares plunged as the feud escalated. The Stock dropping nearly 18% at its lows, shedding $150 billion in market cap on the session. That's its biggest one day loss ever. Shares down further in the after hours session. The broader markets whipsaw too. The S&P 500 finishing the day down half a percent. For more on the war of words between Trump and Musk, let's bring in Eamon Javors who's at the White House. Amen.
Eamon Javers
You know, Melissa, I do this for a living and even I am just kind of out of words to describe what's happened here. I mean, it's just an epic meltdown between the most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world. And as you say, we saw Elon Musk tweeting out just a short time ago that Trump's tariffs are going to cause a recession in the second half of the year. So that's Elon Musk taking on Trump's most important economic move of the year. Then he moves on to the President's most important legislative move of the year, which is his big beautiful spending bill up on Capitol Hill. Elon Musk saying that's a disaster and urging people to kill the bill. And then Elon taking on Donald Trump as a man, as just a human being, saying that he's in the Epstein files and retweeting over the past 20 minutes or so video of Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein, the longtime convicted pedophile. You know, the astonishing nature of that is just sort of you know, beyond my ability to put into words right now. Melissa, it is an astonishing thing, the President seeming befuddled by all of this. Earlier in the day, he was in the Oval Office. He was meeting with the Chancellor of Germany, and, you know, he said, look, we had a great relationship. I don't know if we're going to have a great relationship going forward. And he sort of reminisced about last week when Elon Musk was in the Oval Office with the President. They were both heaping praise on each other, and Trump even said at one point, you know, Elon Musk had a black eye. And I offered to get him some makeup to help him, and he said, no, no, no, I don't need. I don't need any makeup. Trump seemed a little befuddled by that, too. All of this has just enormous implications for Elon Musk's businesses, for the future of the Republican Party, for technology, for cryptocurrency. You can go on and on and on about all the ways this can rupture relationships around the conservative movement, the crypto movement, the tech movement, all of it at stake now, as Steve Bannon, the outside Republican adviser to President Trump, is now encouraging President Trump to investigate Elon Musk as an illegal alien, suggesting that he needs to be deported, suggesting he needs to be investigated for alleged drug use. So where this can go is anybody's guess from here, Melissa. But it has been a wild ride here at the White House today.
Melissa Lee
We are somewhat out of words, too, for this. Amen. It's been a remarkable afternoon in terms of the war of words. Thank you so much. Eamon Javers with the latest from the White House. Let's get more on the impact on Tesla. Phil LeBeau joins us with that now.
Phil LeBeau
Phil and Melissa, the one, the one post that I want to focus on from the President that really should catch the most attention with Tesla investors, it's this one. It has to do with the government subsidies that Tesla receives. The easiest way to save money in our budget, billions and billions of dollars, is to terminate Elon's governmental subsidies and contracts. I always was surprised. I was always surprised that Biden didn't do it. The reason I'm showing you this, Melissa, is not because of the subsidies that Tesla may be receiving. Whether you talk about the EV credits, et cetera, it's the fact that Trump could make life a living hell for Tesla investors. How? Look at all of the agencies, and this is just a few of the primary ones that have some form of regulation over businesses that are core to Tesla, to SpaceX, to Elon Musk. NHTSA oversees regulation of robo taxis autonomous vehicle regulations. The FAA is in charge of SpaceX rocket launches. NASA has a huge say in terms of SpaceX missions, whether you're talking about the International Space Station, whether you're talking about missions to Mars eventually. And then the FCC has regulation over Starlink. Now, you might be looking at this and saying, well, yes, theoretically they have regulation over this, but how much could that really impact Tesla? It could be incredibly problematic. We're not saying that's going to happen, but remember, next week we have the robo taxi launch. If you want to go to war with the president, Melissa, ask the people at Harvard how that goes. He will continue to battle and he will raise the stakes. So that's the thing that investors of Tesla have to be watching at this point.
Melissa Lee
Absolutely, Phil. Thank you, Phil LeBeau. And by the way, Musk said, go ahead, make my day when it came to that tweet threatening that contracts would be terminated. So that's, you know, another concern for investors. Where do you want to go here?
Karen Feinerman
Well, the broader, the broader market is where we go first, Dan. And everybody can talk about Tesla, but, you know, we were having this conversation before the show. What does this mean for the bond market? Is it bond bullish or bond negative? I will tell you, in terms of the US Dollar, I think it's absolutely dollar negative. So therefore I have to think at some point it's broader market negative. Now, if the bond market rallies on this, that's probably what, you know, a lot of people want in the first place. But if you see a solo in the bond market and a subsequent weakness in the dollar, this is what we've seen before. It's not market friendly.
Melissa Lee
I mean, in terms of, you know, if tariffs are delayed because of all the negotiations that are going now, if tax is delayed, if all that's dollar positive, feasible, Right?
Dan Nathan
That's all dollar positive, guys, right? I mean, we, we've, we've had these days where we've seen the dollar, we've seen bonds, we've seen stocks all go down the same day. We've said, you know, this is what happens in emerging markets. The political circus here is something that doesn't help, whether that's something that we'll see follow through. And I think the more important part of this is I do think that this has emboldened and this is not a political show. No one cares about my politics. I'll just say that this stand up actually could Bring some folks on the GOP to at least be more bold to come forward and push back on a bill. Where does that put. What does that do for the bond market? What does that do for the dollar? I think it's bond positive. I ultimately think that if you derail a lot of this policy and you get in at least some sense that this president has a little less power, you're going to see a little more of a flight to quality. And it's so early here. But I do think that if you think about where this administration was very clear, they wanted lower interest rates. You know, I don't know how they were going to get there necessarily, but they definitely wanted a lower dollar. And they had gotten that. And we were actually. Look at 98. You've kind of broken some key levels that the dollar was holding up. Let's watch it.
Melissa Lee
You got the popcorn?
Guy Adami
Oh, sorry. Wait, is it my turn right here? No, I mean, this is. It's a clown show. I mean, let's be clear. And you know, we can go to tax, you can go to $this, you can go to rates or, you know, debt ratings and whatever. At the end of the day, the conflicts of interest that Elon Musk has, it's not just here domestically, it's not just the fear of regulation, and it's not just the fact that he's the richest man in the world, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Think about where his manufacturing bases are in China, in Shanghai, right? The cars that they make in Shanghai, which they're not selling a whole heck of a lot in China anymore, they go to Europe, we have all this tariff stuff going on. Think about the importance of starlink in all of these sorts of situations, whether it's, you know, with Ukraine and Russia. Think about the fact that Elon Musk last year had communications with President Putin, right? So if this is going to hell in a handbasket right here and we've never seen anything like this, I think there are broader geopolitical implications all this, and I do not think they should be discounted. At the end of the day, you look at these two men of this great amount of power and you say to yourself, whose interest do they have in mind? Do they have our country's interests in mind or their own self interest in mind? And I think that's what's really disappointing about this because this is not going to end here and now today. Tweet wars like this, that's one thing, but the other sorts of wars of influence, those things could go on for a while and they chip away at this whole idea of American exceptionalism.
Gary Cohn
So, I mean, there's a lot, you could make a lot of different arguments. To me, what I think is that if this tax part of the bill is threatened, I mean, that has been a source of, I think, a lot of the rally in the last couple of months. Obviously we had the tariff, you know, pause that too. But that is sort of an important underpinning of their plan. Right. Tax. Make sure this tax plan is more permanent or permanent. So if that's threatened, that's one. You could also make the argument, though, that they're going to be able to get rid of a lot of pork. Right. That maybe this, when they relook at this bill, that they know they got to get it done and they won't, maybe it'll be a different bill which will be less.
Dan Nathan
Check out using the term like that, the pork term.
Melissa Lee
Why not use the pork term? It's perfect.
Dan Nathan
Tons of pork.
Melissa Lee
Yes, but the Runway to tax just got longer, longer. And for that reason, that's market negative. I mean, whatever, whatever the bull case was in terms of the back half of the year, we're going to see developments on trade. That's, we're going to have a bunch of deals done, we're going to have tax done and it's going to pave the way for the rally in the back half. That's a longer Runway now. We're going to wait a little longer for that.
Karen Feinerman
I believe so. And if, if the market been rallying on the back of that solely, it's fair to think that we give most of, if not the entirety of it back. And again, you know, we've talked about the volatility index. I think it becomes in play yet again. You know, this 1817, half 18 level, which was resistance forever, is now become.
Melissa Lee
Support for more on the markets and the Trump administration's economic policies. Let's bring in Gary Cohn, vice chair of IBM. He served as director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration and as president of Goldman Sachs president prior to that. Gary, it is great to see you.
Dan Nathan
I think we should clap him in.
Karen Feinerman
You hear the crap.
Marco Polonovic
I'm ready to go home. I'm done.
Melissa Lee
What do you make of all of this?
Marco Polonovic
Well, first of all, I would not overreact to all this. If we've learned one thing over the Trump administration. This is a few hours. The world could be completely different a week from now. So I understand everyone reacting to what we've seen today. And I understand that we're all market driven, but this could change. It could change overnight, it could change next week. And in the middle of this, I think we all missed that, the president announced a trade deal with China, which is probably pretty bullish for the markets as well. So it's not like the White House is sitting there only worried about the Elon Musk situation. They're driving business forward and they're trying to deliver on their economic promises.
Karen Feinerman
Couple things. Gary could be anywhere right now. I'm sure his phone is blowing up. He chose to be with us. He committed this a couple months ago. He's here with us now. Gary's an absolute gentleman, number one. Number two, I ask you, in terms of tax, you sat in that seat for a long time. Mel made the point. I guess both, you said it to me earlier, they both want the same thing. They're just getting at it in a different way. So sort of speak to that.
Marco Polonovic
Exactly. So, look, let's take a step back, take the temperature down for a minute. It is an absolute imperative that we roll over or continue the Trump tax cuts that were put in place in 2017. The implications of not rolling them back and going back to where we were in 2017, we haven't talked about that. But the negative impact on the economy and the markets would be close to catastrophic. I don't think anyone's prepared for that. None of you have talked about it. No one is talking about not rolling over the Trump tax cuts. What's in there for businesses on the accelerated depreciation on the R and D, making interest deductions, making these things permanent. This is really important for the economy. So I don't really think Congress has a choice. And then you can throw in border security and other things in the bill. I think the vast majority of us want a secure border. So these things are going to happen. How we get there, I don't know. As you said, I was part of it when they did it, you know, eight years ago. It's never clean. It's messy, getting legislation done, and it's a lot of compromises. But at the end of the day, we'll get to the compromises to continue the Trump tax cuts and roll them forward. When you look at the deficit piece of the equation, which is what the argument's about today, the deficit in the bill is coming from rolling over the tax cuts. That's what's driving the deficit. It's not additional spending. Yes, there's some spending in there for the border, but the driver of the deficit is the tax cuts. And that's because this arcane way that we score things in the United States, we send it to the Congressional Budget Office, they score it, they statically score it. They say, no matter what you do in the tax bill, it has no effect on the economy. Whether you increase taxes, you decrease taxes, you end taxes, you take them to 100%, it will have no economic effect. We know that's wrong. The static scoring came up with this $2.4 trillion loss over 10 years. If you go back to where we were in 2017, our tax bill statically scored at a huge loss. Revenue is coming in dramatically higher than they would have budgeted revenue to come in because we created economic growth. I think this bill continues to create economic growth by leaving tax rates where they are and leaving corporates involved in this. So I think you have to understand that, like Elon's talking about the deficit, which, by the way, is a big problem, but the tax bill being rolled over is equally as important, and that's what's causing the deficit. So I think we've got to separate the deficit issue and spending, because, look, we decided as a country to spend a lot of money during COVID and I don't think anyone has a problem with that. Unfortunately, when Covid ended, we never went back to pre Covid spending levels. We continued on that trajectory, conflating the tax bill and the COVID spending. They're two different items, and I think we have to look at them separately.
Gary Cohn
So first of all, thank you so much for being on. Do you think it got harder or easier? Because the last few days it seemed like there was. There was some cracks in the ability to get this deal done. Do you. Where do you think we stand now?
Marco Polonovic
Look, we're going to get the deal done. The question is, what's in the bill? Okay, that's. And look, I don't want to go down the crazy path of reconciliation, but they're using reconciliation, which means they need a simple majority in the Senate. But here's the. But the Senate and the House have to agree on the exact same piece of legislation, and that's where the issue's going to come. You know, the House put in there an increased cap on salt deductions, state and local tax deductions. The Senate doesn't necessarily like that. I don't think that's going to end up where the House put in. There's going to be a compromise. There's going to be lots of compromises in this bill. And I Think right now in week one of the Senate legislative process, everyone's asking for their ultimate asks and there's going to be compromise and you're going to negotiate down from the starting point. And that's what we're. We're watching the sausage being made in some respects.
Melissa Lee
I know that you want to take the long view on this and you want to have a cool head about it, which we admire, but we got to figure this out in terms of the impact on the markets. And so to the extent that this does make achieving an agreement on tax, rolling them over a little bit longer from here, that the deal gets messier, that the process is longer. What is the impact on the markets? How do you see that impacting the bond market?
Marco Polonovic
Let me just add this one point. I don't think it's going to be that much longer. There's a forcing function in this whole tax legislation because we've got debt ceiling established in there. So when Secretary Besson comes out with his X date or the date that we run out of capacity to finance ourselves, that's going to be when legislation has to happen. I always assumed that Congress would take all the time they could take to get to the legislative agenda they want. So I don't think it's going to slow down. I think we're going to go through this normal process as far as markets are concerned. Look, I think anyone who thinks that this bill is not going to get through and taxes are not going to be extended, I think they're making a miscalculation. On the flip side, you know, I talked about the China trade deal, the China trade deal. If we actually have a China trade deal and we're going to see more normalized relationships with China, that's pretty bullish to the markets, pretty bullish to companies. And you think about the exports and the imports and the fact that we're not going to have to worry about supply chains, and we've all been talking about corporate uncertainty for the last four months. One of the big uncertainties has been China. If you take the China uncertainty off the table, it's clearly a good moment for markets.
Guy Adami
Yeah, but Gary, I mean, there's no trade deal with China. Right. And if you go back to the first administration, the first time we put tariffs on China in 2018, we didn't have a phase one deal until January of 2020. And you could say the stakes are much higher now. We lived through Covid. We understand the implications of disrupted supply chains. Now throw in, I throw in this race that we're in. Which is really going to determine, I think, you know, who wins the race between the US and China over the next 100 years. They seem to be in a position where they can wait it out. I just don't think that we can say today there's a strong framework for a trade deal with China anytime soon.
Marco Polonovic
Well, look, we don't know what was agreed upon today. What may have been agreed upon today is the stop fighting for the Chinese to reinstate some of their exports of rare earths, magnets, things that we're hearing about that are in short supply. We do know, we do have the data that we do know. Since Liberation Day, the Chinese have been exporting less to the United States. We see the freight coming in, we see the ships coming into the ports. We know there's less coming in. So if the Chinese reinstate some of the shipments of those goods that we need that go into manufacturing, further manufacturing in the United States, because they're not finished goods, that's important to the US Economy. It's important to manufacturing here. It helps us get what we need to get done. Just those things by themselves are stabilized in the markets. Look, China needs things from us as well. We know that we export food, we export energy to China. They need food, they need energy. There are compromises to be made here. And if there's just a understanding between the two heads of state, and they invited each other to come to each other's countries and they said they've accepted, just the thawing of the relationship is pretty positive.
Dan Nathan
So I hear you and I appreciate the resolve and the calm on this deal is going to get done in terms of the budget and whatnot. So as a market participant, and while you spend time in Washington, you're a markets guy. What, what policy initiative do you want to see for the market beyond taxes? We've, we've made the assumption that's going to happen. You've said we've got a China deal done. I. Let's not, let's not challenge that. What's next? Because I feel like this administration was already getting ready to drop the next bit of candy on the market. Is there any.
Marco Polonovic
Look, I don't know if there's any. I think it will take us the better part this year to get this, this big, beautiful bill done. Yeah, I mean, this may take till August, September, depending on X date. So then we start getting into, you know, primary season, reelection season, midterm season. This may be the hallmark piece of legislation. If you look back at administrations, administrations tend to get one piece of major legislation done in the first year. And so this will be the piece of legislation. Look, I do still think that there is a need to take on spending in the federal government. You know, look, this is why Elon Musk was going after spending in his Doge facility. The president is going after spending. They're both right. We spend too much in this country. So ultimately, whether they can get it done in this bill or not, and maybe they can go back to regular way in the Senate, which is 60 votes, and we can eliminate some things that cost us money that maybe we don't need in this country. Maybe there's a bipartisan way to cut spending because I think both sides of the aisle are feeling pressure on the spending.
Melissa Lee
Gary, great to see you. Thank you so much for coming by.
Marco Polonovic
Thank you for having me.
Melissa Lee
Come by anytime.
Dan Nathan
Gary Cohn makes it sound so. I mean, we needed a measured voice here on a day.
Melissa Lee
And bond impact.
Karen Feinerman
Better day to have. GARY Cohn, There is no better day. And again, I said it, and I'll say it again, an absolute gentleman to be here because I guarantee that every network in the United States is looking for this voice right now. So thank you, Gary.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. But if we had to go back to the markets. Yeah, we heard your geopolitical impact speech. Get that. But in terms of the markets, what do you think they do tomorrow?
Guy Adami
Yeah, I mean, it's not good for the markets. I mean, we were talking about uncertainty for the last two months. And we know what that happened, you know, in April when we had a whole heck of a lot of it. I don't have a lot of confidence that, you know, this call with Xi is, I don't know, crap about anything. Okay. But let's just be honest. We have enough time now. The first administration, we see how this sort of stuff goes. He's very easily flattered, but now he's very easily distracted. And I can't, I can't stress this enough. I mean, all of these conflicts of interest that Elon has, he's got pressure points right here. And you know, you think about China, okay, Canada and Mexico, our two largest trading partners, have not even come to the table. They haven't even talked about negotiating. You think China is going to strike a deal before the EU can? Markets are up and they're massively outperforming through the lens of the markets. I think that folks are kind of waiting to see what sort of deal we have with our allies before we have one with our adversary.
Gary Cohn
Could you talk about Tesla itself for one second. Okay, so Tesla is right around where it was the day after the election, which makes sense. A lot's happened though. I think this is a way worse scenario, right? I think that for Tesla because when he was elected, you know, clearly Musk and Trump, there was no daylight between them at all. Right? They were fast friends. And so he had every reason to hope that everything would go his way, Tesla's way. You can imagine now that scenario not playing out in a bigger way at a time when the value of Tesla is so much about Robo taxi, so much about full self driving and robots. I don't leave that aside for a minute. You can't help but feel like that is damaged, at least in the near term.
Melissa Lee
Remember what Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said About Tesla, the $1.1 trillion market cap, most of it is based on businesses that basically don't exist right now. They're not commercial businesses. And to that extent, yes, Tesla's in a much worse position because who has a target now on his back? Elon Musk does. The contracts are going to be gone.
Gary Cohn
The credits are gone. The credits which would happen anyway.
Melissa Lee
The contracts in terms of, you know, Starlink, et cetera, those will be gone. In theory, if this really plays out the way Trump says it's going to play out.
Karen Feinerman
I saw one of the fine shows, I think it was on Power Lunch. One of the analysts $120 price target was talking about some of the things you're talking about. And I know on this show we talked about this recent move to 360 was a text market book. 50% retracement of the all time high and those 220 lows. But now given this news, I'm sort of with Karen. It's not ridiculous to think we're not going to visit that to 20 level.
Melissa Lee
All right, we've got to get to Broadcom right now. Shares at after our session lows despite a revenue and earnings beat. Kate Ruby's got the numbers. Kate Amel. So expectations were pretty high for Broadcom heading into this print. That is part of the stock drop we saw after hours. It did pare back some of those losses, but by most measures, if you look at the chip maker and the fiscal second quarter, it did outperform at least for, for the quarterly numbers. It was driven by strong demand. CEO Hawk Tan, Just saying on the earnings call, that momentum in the quarter, he called it robust demand for AI networking. Broadcom of course is a key player in this whole AI hardware ecosystem. Chan said the momentum is expected to continue into future quarters. He expects growth in AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to 5.1 billion in Q3. That comes as their hyperscaler partners continue to invest, as he put it. EPS revenue topped expectations. Same with Q3 revenue guidance. That was roughly in line at 15.8 billion. Semiconductor and infrastructure revenue also topped expectations. Back over to you Kate. Thanks, Kate Rooney. Just to put the decline after hours in context, record high close. So we started off very high on Broadcom going into the print.
Guy Adami
Yeah. Up nearly 9% right. Since the April lows. And you know, I think it's important to remember.
Dan Nathan
90, 90, 90 I thought you said.
Guy Adami
And that's how we got back to the fateful eight people. Right. I know you guys have been dogged with this Mag 7, but you know, it's over a trillion dollars in market cap right now. The one thing I'll just say is like here's a company that's growing earnings and sales. High teens, okay, high teens. And it's trading at like, I don't know, 39 times or 20 times sales, that sort of thing. So I'm not sure the valuation is commensurate with the story that Hock Tan is telling. He's already given us massive targets about what Custom Silicon could be out to 2027. That's why the stock in December rallied 40% in two days. So I just think it's important remember that this stock got cut in half from its December highs to its April lows. You could say, well, it's important to remember the stock just doubled from there. This is when things get a lot harder for investors, when you're trying to process what is in the stock right here. I think a lot is in the stock.
Melissa Lee
Right. We've got to take a quick break right now. Guy has somewhere to go.
Karen Feinerman
I'm getting up, I'm getting up and I'm moving.
Melissa Lee
He's going to go check in with our fans to get their trader questions. Folks from dc, Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, even Australia. Say hello Australia. What they want to know about the markets. That is next. Also had former JP Morgan chief market strategist Marco Klonovic is here and he's got a stark warning for where markets are headed next. That and much more on our very special edition of Fast money. Back into foreign how will you shape.
Guy Adami
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Marco Polonovic
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Melissa Lee
Whether that's a waffle maker for his.
Gary Cohn
Beloved breakfast and bed.
Guy Adami
Come to papa. Or new pickleball paddles for some friendly father son competition.
Melissa Lee
Come to Papa.
Marco Polonovic
Yeah.
Melissa Lee
Or gifts like a steel shaker for his signature dad hat and cocktail. Come to Papa.
Guy Adami
From cookware to sports gear, shop everything.
Melissa Lee
For Father's Day on Amazon.
Marco Polonovic
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Eamon Javers
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Marco Polonovic
Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to this special Fat20 live event. Guys on the ground with our fans. We've got some burning questions. So guy, who do you have?
Karen Feinerman
I am here. It's hard to hear. I'm here with Natasha. Natasha, stand up please. In from Australia, is that correct?
Melissa Lee
Yes. Yeah, flew here. It took about 18 hours and it's great to be here.
Karen Feinerman
Well, we're thrilled that you're here and we've all been talking about it since we found out, so thank you. But you have a question?
Melissa Lee
Yes, I'm just wondering whether you think the worst correction has taken place so far for the year.
Karen Feinerman
That's a fair question. I'm going to throw that to Dan Nathan in terms of correction, where we are now and for the rest of the year. Dan?
Guy Adami
Well, you know, Guy, we've been talking about this. It seems like billionaire hedge fund investor after billionaire hedge fund investor have suggested we're going to go back and test those prior lows from April. When you think about this, you know, you think about the potential for recession. Elon Musk, also a billionaire, he's suggesting that there's a good chance that we have a recession in the back half of the year. The thing about the stock market, it kind of sniffs it out one way or another and we're not there just yet. We're within, I don't know, striking distance of the prior all time high. So I think you can probably take cues from the market A little bit. See where the leadership is going right now. It seems like there's a lot of groups that have been acting pretty well away from big cap tech. If you start to see them weaken, that might be pricing in a recession. That said, if we do have a recession, if you do have a retest of that 4850 in the S&P 500, it probably makes a lot of sense to start thinking long term and start dollar cost averaging into what might be another bull run for the market in the years ahead.
Karen Feinerman
Karen's in from Washington, D.C. one of my favorite cities in the country. Thanks for joining us.
Melissa Lee
Thanks for having me here.
Karen Feinerman
You got a question, Please.
Melissa Lee
I do have a question. I wanted to find out about Nike. Should I invest more or should I fail?
Karen Feinerman
I'm going to throw that to Tim Seymour. He's the Nike expert on the panel. TIM seymour, NIKE well, let's, let's just do it here.
Dan Nathan
Karen, thanks for coming. First of all, it's great having everybody here and it's interesting. We're going to talk about Lululemon later on in this show. Down 20% at last. Look, the impact for Nike, you know, you could make an argument it's not just a Lulu story. It could be discretionary. It could be Athleisure night down about 3% after hours. I love Nike here. So let's just be clear. I think there is some discretionary spend. There's some concern. I think the concern about the competitive landscape overdone. I think if you saw some of that share loss by Hoka, I think you have hoka's on right now. Deckers had, yeah, they had poor numbers. Nike's revalued a lot. I think you've priced in a lot of negativity and I think this company is getting ready for a multi year expansion.
Karen Feinerman
All right, before I go to Christopher, I'm going to call BS on that. And everybody in here, you can see I'm actually wearing shoes. So everybody give Guy Adami a round of applause for not wearing helpers. Exactly.
Dan Nathan
Exactly.
Karen Feinerman
Chris is in from the great state of Texas. Chris.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Tiny little dot there on your map. And I just want to first, you know, being that we're each former football players, I think you probably must have.
Gary Cohn
Been a db, obviously, offensive line for.
Melissa Lee
Myself, I did read something about the 104 yard intercept.
Karen Feinerman
That's a long time ago, Chris. That's a long time ago.
Melissa Lee
Come on. Come on. But here, but basically what I want.
Marco Polonovic
To know is I've been a long.
Melissa Lee
Term Holder of a Home Depot solid dividend, you know, just like a good family member. But what I'm wondering is, do I stick with it or do I move on to something, maybe a faster grower like Costco?
Karen Feinerman
I think that's a great question. And you know who's well suited to answer that? The great Karen Feinerman. Home Depot. Karen.
Gary Cohn
So I'm long Home Depot. I have not been long Costco. I always found that to be too expensive and that was the wrong move. Home Depot, I think, is a great company. We want rates to be lower. You know, it was interesting story we did yesterday about how much home equity lines people are taking out of their homes. And I think a lot of that will be going to Home Depot. So staying long there.
Karen Feinerman
Sabrina's here from the great state of Arkansas, some of the best bike riding in the country. Is that true?
Melissa Lee
That is very true.
Gary Cohn
Best in the world.
Karen Feinerman
In the world. That's high praise. But you have a question?
Melissa Lee
Yes. I wanted to get your thoughts on Coreweave since their IPO in March 2025.
Karen Feinerman
Well, that's clearly going to the great Dan Nath Nathan, Core weave. Dan Nathan, what do you think?
Guy Adami
Nothing great about the call that I've had on this thing. I still don't think it's a great fundamental story. I think there's a really strong chance that in the next year or so we see overcapacity. I think some of their biggest customers, 70% is Microsoft of this one company's revenue base. I think some of that starts to go away. So I'm not a buyer here, but it's clearly turned into a meme stock.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, you've been watching this to Karen, because the short interest is.
Gary Cohn
Is, yes.
Melissa Lee
Crazy.
Gary Cohn
What's happening in the narrative. The narrative about AI and all of that data centers happen has nothing to do what's happening with the stock right now. It is a short squeeze. I follow every day I ask Goldman Sachs, how much does it cost to borrow? Today it's down to 100%.
Melissa Lee
So that means literally down to 100.
Gary Cohn
Down to 100 from 200. So if you borrowed it, that's a price for a year. You'd have to pay 100% on the borrow. So you are allowed to be shorted. And if the stock went to zero, you would be flat on the trade. So there's a short squeeze here. This is not what's happening in the underlying business.
Melissa Lee
All right. By the way, we'll have many more questions from our fans later on in the show, but first Time to get bearish. Stocks just a whisper away from record highs. But former JP Morgan chief market strategist Marco Polon says the good times will not last. While he is predicting a pullback when fast money returns.
Guy Adami
Lights, camera, innovation.
Marco Polonovic
Walt Disney Studios chose advanced 5G solutions from T Mobile for Business to transform the moviemaking process. Together we kept a remote production hub in Hawaii in sync with a team in California to bring Lilo and Stitch to theaters this summer. This is picture perfect collaboration. This is Walt Disney Studios with T Mobile for Business. Take your business further@t mobile.com now. Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the Febr February 2024 Nelson Report.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing lower as investors digested the president's escalating feud with Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The Dow falling more than 100 points. The S and P down to more than half a percent. And the Nasdaq leading the losses down 8. 10 of a percent. Stablecoin issuer circle Internet Group making a splash a big one in the market debut today surging as much as 235%, closing nearly 170% higher. The stock price at its IPO at $31. And shares of whiskey maker Brown Forman plunging nearly 18% after results this morning. The company missing estimates on the top and the bottom line citing tariffs and weak spending on alcohol. Well, the man who is known for moving markets is on correction watch. Marco Collantovic joins us now for his first TV interview since leaving J.P. morgan last summer. He was a firm's chief market strategist, co head of global market research. He joins us here on set. Marco, it is great to see you.
Marco Polonovic
Thank you. Great to be here.
Melissa Lee
You're looking for a garden variety pullback. Does anything change based on what is unfolded this afternoon?
Marco Polonovic
I mean a little bit, you know, because we got close to all time highs. I believe Nasdaq was one and a half percent. And then you had this sort of Tesla Palantir, a bunch of these momentum stocks taking quite a bit of beating. So it does remind me on what happened in February 19th. If you remember, that was when the sort of palantir went down and then momentum stock unraveled, you know, so, so I do think that that could be a catalyst for, for a bit of a correction because close to all time highs, but we still have all the problems. We have a trade war. We had a sort of signs of economic slowdown, you know, valuations are back to highs. So you know, that's, that's sort of what I'm kind of expecting, a little bit of a pullback here.
Melissa Lee
Does that negative political backdrop, has it gotten worse based on what we've seen this afternoon between President Trump and Elon Musk, or is that a sideshow?
Marco Polonovic
I think it's a little bit of a sideshow. It's important for certain company and it can spill over because if you look at the Tesla is one of the biggest holding of retail, retail investor, you know, they're like kind of little ecosystem of stocks around it, you know, like. So I think it could be a little bit of a catalyst. Although I think much bigger problems are sort of what we saw for instance last three days with adp, with initial claims, with challenging job cuts. I think that's like a real problem. And the fact that we have this trade war which and almost nothing is resolved yet. Right.
Guy Adami
Marco, A lot of folks want to focus on corporate earnings and really growth, right. As they think about the stock market and potential gains. But one thing is really important. If you go back to, let's call it early April, we didn't have a lot of clarity. You know, we had a careening stock market and we had the US dollar, you know, well below, you know, below 100. It got down to like, I don't know, 98 or something. That's a US dollar index. And we also had 10 year yields which were much lower. Now they're much higher, 4.4%. How important is that disconnect in your opinion as you think about the macro situation here? Because you have a stock market that's very close back to its prior highs, but you have the 10 year yield and you have the dollar trading near where they were when the stock market was much lower.
Marco Polonovic
So there is this kind between dollar and ten year, right. You know, and ten year I think is a problem, right, because it sort of drives a lot of different things. Real estate, commercial real estate, mortgages, all kind of things, right. Also you need to compare equity risk, premia and bond risk premium or what are you earning on equities, what are you getting from bonds? You know, like so bonds are cheaper than equities, equities are expensive. So I do think that's a sort of a negative thing. You know, there is a bit of also this standoff between Fed and the President. Right. You know, so everywhere, everywhere else in the world rates are being cut. Here they are not, you know, eventually that has to impact negatively risky asset classes here. You know, so, so bonds sold off a lot of different theories from systematic selling to sort of this like divesting of our trade war sort of counterparts to sort of, you know, inflation risk terminals, premium, all kind of different things, you know, like. But that's a negative. You know, it's a negative. I do think that bonds are probably oversold at this point. Last two or three days we are seeing a bit of a rally. I think it's more driven by a weak economic data or signs, hints of weak economic data. And so I think we could have a bit of a convergence there. So equities a little bit lower, bonds a little bit higher. Just to kind of equalize a little bit these two yields risk premium.
Dan Nathan
So a couple of things. First of all, treasury yields were fourth closed one year ago. The 10 year closed at 439. It closed today at 439. So I mean at some level there's been much to do about nothing. I'd be the first. We've all said there's reasons why we've been concerned about bond yields. And it doesn't sound like you're terribly concerned about a big sell off. I'm trying to qualify. You know, first of all, garden variety means also opportunity. I'm looking at a market now that also over the last few months has seen real allocation internationally. Any thoughts on that? That's kind of work you guys did at JP Morgan. Look where people are positioned. And again this US exceptionalism trade is something that got a little, a little long in the tooth.
Marco Polonovic
Yeah, look, I mean I was, I was on a Dan's podcast back in November. I said go buy international stocks, they're cheap relative to us. But that has reversed a lot. I mean look at the sort of Dax like that's a straight line up like to the kind of all time highs, you know, situation there. In Europe there is a trade war. They do depend on exports a lot. Right. So I'm not so you know, sold that now is the time to go in that trade. I think that that sort of passed, you know with some of these, many of these international instances literally at all time highs in the face of trade war, global slowdown, you know, valuations that are reset higher. I'm not sure that's the time now. So I, I would probably stay away from that. I mean, if you were in that trade, great. I probably even didn't expect it's going to go this far. Right. You know, you know, but Europe had some sort of, you know, measures to stimulate and so there's some optimism there. I'm skeptical about it. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I think like probably weighted out a little bit in bonds. There are some cheap aspects of the US Markets as well. And maybe wait for that Covid garden variety sell off, you know, that can be maybe, you know, 5%, 10%, you know, and if we still don't have the recession probability shooting up, then it's a buy opportunity, you know. But I would keep an open mind that maybe at that point there is increased probability of recession and Maybe even that 5% is not a buy that.
Melissa Lee
Marco, thank you. Good to see you, Mark. Coming up, guy, we're going to send you back. Get out of here.
Dan Nathan
Work to do.
Melissa Lee
We got questions on crypto gold, cyber stocks, opportunities overseas. That's all next. Plus, Lululemon results are out. Shares are falling on the report. Details and numbers from the quarter when the special Fast Money live returns. Welcome back to Fast Money, guys. Where else? Back with the fans with more questions. Guys.
Karen Feinerman
I'm here. I'm here with Lance from the great state of Kansas. How are you, Lance? And you have a question? I do have a question.
Marco Polonovic
Two things keep me up at night.
Karen Feinerman
In the heart of America every day, and it's Moody's downgrade of US credit and the increasing debt to GDP ratio. So my question is, does that affect your allocation of US Equities? And when you consider using international equities as a hedge against that, well, that goes right to the ambassador that Moody's downgrade happened on a Friday. We call that a Friday night dirty. But Tim Seymour, I know you have the answer to this question.
Dan Nathan
Well, Lance, first of all, we do love your part of the country too. And I tell you what, I think you have an argument for international allocation. I know Marco said something otherwise, but I think if you look at the allocation overweight by foreign investors to the US we're starting to see some of that unwind. I think valuation is still attractive, higher divs. So yes, Lance, we love usa. We also love international.
Karen Feinerman
Jerry's here from Hawaii. We had somebody from Hawaii last show. Jerry came all the way from Hawaii for this show, which is amazing. We're humbled by that. Jerry, what's your question?
Gary Cohn
Well, first of all, aloha from Hawaii.
Karen Feinerman
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
And a quick question I have is.
Gary Cohn
I'd like the panel's recommendation on initiating a small position.
Karen Feinerman
That's a Karen Feineman. I mean Kay Fine has been on Bitcoin since Brian Kelly wrote the book in 2014. Karen, what do you got?
Gary Cohn
So if you have no exposure to bitcoin then I would say yes, you get started here. The Ibid is an easy way to do it. It's, you know, there's a little bit of expenses but it's clean and easy. That's what I would do. Doesn't matter where it's been before or after. This administration is very, very pro cryptic.
Karen Feinerman
Dan is here from Denton, Texas, one of the great high school football cities in the country. Is that correct?
Melissa Lee
Yes. Go Ryan Raiders.
Karen Feinerman
Go Ryan Raiders. If you're watching. So what's your question?
Melissa Lee
Okay, so I want to get the traders take on Siemens.
Karen Feinerman
That would be Tim Seymour again sort of an international flair. The General Electric sort of overseas. Tim, what do you got?
Dan Nathan
Love to be in the spotlight. Love loves me. Don't mess with Texas Miga. Right. Make international great again. We joke but there has been that argument. So part of the whole story in Germany, the great historic kind of moment I would say about three and a half months ago was Germany decided they who have the best kind of fiscal austerity would start deficit spending. Rearm Europe, rearm Germany. Siemens benefits directly 20 times forward, not expensive, had a great run. I am long in my etf, Marcus.
Karen Feinerman
Here and if I'm not mistaken, yep, New York. I mean he upstate New York. Is that correct?
Guy Adami
Yeah.
Marco Polonovic
Shout out to Melissa Lee. Buffalo, New York, not far away.
Karen Feinerman
Please don't, don't pander to Melissa Lee. What's your question?
Marco Polonovic
Question about aerospace. There's been some great performance out of the big caps.
Guy Adami
Boeing, Raytheon, also small caps. Do you guys have an opinion about.
Karen Feinerman
The best next place? I know Karen thinks about Boeing and I'll let her take that one. I'll say real quick, Raytheon is now rtx. I think it made an all time high today. You juxtapose that with Lockheed Martin. It's been an amazing performer. But Karen, Boeing, yes.
Gary Cohn
So I think you, Tim and I have all been on Boeing. We all like it. Dan, I don't know. He doesn't like things sometimes. So we still like it. I think this turnaround story is very early and we are going to start to see cash flow and that's what's been missing in Boeing I love Kay.
Guy Adami
Fine, I love you.
Melissa Lee
Who doesn't?
Dan Nathan
Okay, that's nice.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, more after hours action shares. The Lululemon dropping hard after reporting results and details and numbers in the quarter when this special edition of Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Another earnings alert on Lululemon shares losing more than a fifth of their value even after a top and bottom line beat. The Athleisure company posting disappointing same store sales reducing full year earnings guidance. At these levels the shares have erased about six weeks of gains. What a decline, Karen?
Gary Cohn
Yes, quite a decline. I mean they did. I don't know why anyone provides guidance because particularly if you input if you're you know importing like they are so much their stuff from China, who knows. So they put out guidance was a little bit light. I am surprised how much the market's reaction to it was down 20. I don't know where it is right now. 22, 23%. The guidance was only a couple of a percent miss so I don't know. I think it's an overreaction. But you don't need to jump.
Guy Adami
It's a really hard time for investors. You know, you're trying to parse out what's going on with the consumer, what's going on, how companies are operating and then how are they dealing within this trade war. And so that's one of the things I think we're going to continue to hear. I disagree with Karen on the guidance thing. I think incrementally any sort of piece of news that you can get, especially in a period like this, I think it's helpful for investors. So. So this is the sort of thing you love the story. It's a lot cheaper now. You feel like they're going to have, you know, some sort of, I don't know, they're going to get things better on their own execution or the trade war is going to be take a long term view. And this is a great name. So you probably think about what three days? Is that what you do, Karen? Three day rule. Three day rule.
Melissa Lee
Okay, okay. You got a lulu shirt on.
Dan Nathan
I do have a lulu shirt on. So the fashion's nice, but the stock's not. We have a case where I just remember this was a $500 stock not that long ago. We all we did was talk about the competitive landscape. All we did was talk about peak margin. I think there's something to not jump into tomorrow.
Melissa Lee
All right, up next, final trades time flew on this show. Final trade time.
Marco Polonovic
Tim, I'll tell you what we have.
Dan Nathan
The best audience, the best fans in financial TV and any TV guy have great was tonight.
Karen Feinerman
Did everybody have a good time tonight and we still have some drinks going.
Melissa Lee
This is amazing.
Karen Feinerman
Real quick, my final trade. Asa Lawson from the page program his last night. Asa, thanks for everything you've done for us.
Dan Nathan
I appreciate best money. We love our fans. Southern Copper Copper's going higher all time high. Stay there Karen.
Gary Cohn
Lulu I agree with Dan though. Wait, wait.
Melissa Lee
Dan.
Guy Adami
Yeah, Broadcom. In a market of disconnects, this is really surprising to me that this stock is not trading lower. Huge expectations. The numbers were good, the guidance was fine, but I don't know why this thing is not down a bit more. I would not be buying in here.
Melissa Lee
Thank you all for watching, especially our live fans, the ones who are here at the NASDAQ market site tonight. We'll see you shortly. See you back here tomorrow for more Fast Mad Money starts right now.
Marco Polonovic
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer A crucial May.
Guy Adami
Jobs Report as investors watch for signs.
Marco Polonovic
Of strength in a changing economy, will wage pressures and policy uncertainty shift the jobs outlook?
Guy Adami
Employment numbers and Analysis Squawkbox Tomorrow, 8:30.
Marco Polonovic
Eastern and streaming on CNBC.
CNBC's "Fast Money" Special Edition Summary
Episode: Stocks Turn Lower On Trump, Musk Feud
Release Date: June 5, 2025
Introduction
Hosts Melissa Lee and a panel of top traders convene for a special edition of CNBC's "Fast Money" broadcasted live from the NASDAQ markets in Times Square. The episode delves into the escalating feud between former President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, its repercussions on the stock market, ongoing tax bill negotiations, and critical earnings reports. Engaging insights from industry experts and live questions from a global audience shape the in-depth discussion.
1. Musk vs. Trump Feud and Market Impact
The episode opens with a high-energy atmosphere as Melissa Lee outlines the night's key topics. The central focus is the contentious exchange between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, which has led to significant volatility in the stock market, particularly impacting Tesla.
Feud Escalation: Musk and Trump have engaged in a public war of words on social media, leading to dramatic market reactions. Musk criticized Trump's tariffs, predicting a recession in the latter half of the year, while responding to Trump's threats to terminate Tesla's government contracts.
Tesla's Plunge: In response to the feud, Tesla's shares plummeted nearly 18%, erasing $150 billion in market capitalization—the largest one-day loss in the company's history. The broader market mirrored this instability, with the S&P 500 ending the day down 0.5% ([02:58]).
Expert Insight: Eamon Javers from the White House discusses the unprecedented nature of the conflict:
"It's just an epic meltdown between the most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world." ([03:33])
Javers highlights potential long-term implications for Musk's businesses and the Republican Party, noting Steve Bannon's provocative suggestions to investigate Musk's legal status.
2. Government Contracts and Tesla's Future
Phil LeBeau provides an in-depth analysis of how Trump's actions could jeopardize Tesla's government subsidies and contracts.
Impact on Subsidies: LeBeau emphasizes the significance of government contracts in Tesla's operations, stating:
"Trump could make life a living hell for Tesla investors... There's regulation over robo taxis, autonomous vehicles, SpaceX launches, and Starlink services." ([06:00])
Strategic Vulnerabilities: The potential termination of subsidies threatens Tesla's financial stability and growth prospects, particularly concerning upcoming projects like the robo taxi launch.
3. Tax Bill Negotiations and Market Implications
The discussion shifts to the ongoing negotiations over Trump's tax bill and its potential effects on the market. Gary Cohn, former Trump NSC Director and IBM Vice Chair, joins the panel to provide his perspective.
Rollover of Tax Cuts: Cohn argues for the necessity of rolling over Trump's 2017 tax cuts, emphasizing their positive impact on economic growth and corporate investments.
"The Trump tax cuts have been a source of rally... It's imperative we continue them to sustain economic momentum." ([13:49])
Deficit Concerns: Marco Polanovic addresses concerns about the deficit, clarifying that the primary driver is the extension of tax cuts rather than increased spending.
"The deficit in the bill is coming from rolling over the tax cuts, not additional spending." ([13:49])
Legislative Challenges: Polanovic predicts that while compromises are inevitable, the urgency imposed by the debt ceiling will accelerate the legislative process.
4. Market Warning: Pullback Predictions
Former JP Morgan Chief Market Strategist Marco Polanovic warns of an impending stock market pullback due to heightened political tensions and economic indicators.
Potential for Correction: Polanovic draws parallels to previous market downturns, suggesting that the current political strife could trigger a significant market correction.
"We have all the problems... a trade war, economic slowdown signs, and high valuations. A pullback is expected." ([35:12])
Broader Economic Indicators: He cites job market weaknesses and ongoing trade disputes as critical factors that could catalyze the anticipated market decline.
5. Earnings Reports
The panel reviews recent earnings reports that have influenced investor sentiment.
Broadcom's Performance: Despite exceeding revenue and earnings expectations, Broadcom's stock saw after-hours declines. CEO Hawk Tan highlighted robust demand for AI networking, forecasting continued growth.
"Momentum is expected to continue into future quarters with AI semiconductor revenue accelerating to $5.1 billion in Q3." ([25:03])
Lululemon's Decline: Following a strong quarterly performance, Lululemon's shares dropped nearly 20% due to disappointing same-store sales and reduced full-year earnings guidance, erasing six weeks of gains.
"Lululemon posted disappointing same store sales, reducing full-year earnings guidance, leading to a sharp stock decline." ([46:53])
6. Bond Market and Dollar Impact
The conversation transitions to the bond market and its relationship with the U.S. dollar, highlighting concerns about market sentiment.
Dollar's Downturn: Karen Feinerman points out the dollar's negative trajectory, suggesting broader market implications.
"In terms of the US Dollar, I think it's absolutely dollar negative." ([08:21])
Bond Market Rally: Dan Nathan discusses the bond market's potential rally as a response to economic uncertainties, although Karen expresses skepticism about its market-friendly nature.
"If the bond market rallies on this, that's probably what a lot of people want in the first place." ([08:29])
7. Guest Analysis: Gary Cohn
Gary Cohn offers nuanced insights into the current economic landscape, focusing on tax policies and their effects on the market.
Tax Policy Advocacy: Cohn underscores the importance of making Trump's tax plan more permanent to sustain economic growth and corporate investment.
"Rolling over the Trump tax cuts is crucial for maintaining economic momentum and corporate profitability." ([13:49])
Legislative Outlook: He anticipates that despite the complexities, the tax bill will progress through the Senate, potentially altering its initial form through necessary compromises.
8. Trader Q&A
The live segment features audience questions addressing a range of topics, from investment strategies to specific stock inquiries.
Home Depot vs. Costco: Viewers seek advice on whether to maintain or shift investments between these retail giants. The panel generally endorses Home Depot for its solid dividend and growth prospects.
"Home Depot is a great company... I think staying long there is advisable." ([33:07])
Coreweave's IPO: Questions about the recently launched Coreweave stock reveal skepticism about its long-term viability despite its meme stock status.
"There's a strong chance of overcapacity and reliance on a single major customer, making Coreweave a risky investment." ([33:44])
Bitcoin Investment: Karen Feinerman recommends initiating a small position in Bitcoin through accessible platforms like Ibid.
"If you have no exposure to bitcoin, then I would say yes, get started here." ([44:11])
9. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
The panelists discuss overarching market trends and future expectations amid ongoing economic and political uncertainties.
Valuation Concerns: Marco Polanovic highlights the disconnect between equity and bond markets, questioning the sustainability of current high valuations.
"Equities are expensive and bonds are cheaper than equities, which is a negative indicator." ([39:01])
Global Trade Dynamics: The potential stabilization of US-China trade relations is viewed as bullish, though uncertainties remain regarding a comprehensive trade deal.
"If there's an understanding between the two heads of state, the thawing of the relationship is pretty positive." ([20:45])
10. Conclusions
The episode wraps up with a consensus that the interplay between high-profile political conflicts, ongoing tax bill negotiations, and mixed earnings reports is creating a turbulent environment for investors. The shadow of a potential market correction looms large, compounded by uncertainties in both domestic policies and international trade relations. Panelists advocate for cautious optimism and strategic positioning in anticipation of market adjustments.
Notable Quotes
Eamon Javers, White House:
"It's just an epic meltdown between the most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world." ([03:33])
Phil LeBeau:
"Trump could make life a living hell for Tesla investors... There's regulation over robo taxis, autonomous vehicles, SpaceX launches, and Starlink services." ([06:00])
Marco Polanovic:
"Rolling over the Trump tax cuts is crucial for maintaining economic momentum and corporate profitability." ([13:49])
Gary Cohn:
"The Trump tax cuts have been a source of rally... It's imperative we continue them to sustain economic momentum." ([13:49])
Karen Feinerman:
"Something that got a little, a little long in the tooth." ([40:51])
Conclusion
This special edition of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of the intricate dynamics between political power plays, economic policies, and market behaviors. With insights from seasoned experts and real-time audience engagement, viewers gain a nuanced understanding of the factors driving current market trends and the potential trajectories ahead.