← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
All Eyes on Nvidia’s Latest Quarter… And Housing and Retail Flash Warning Signs 2/25/26
00:43:35
The AI and software trades get a big test with Nvidia and Salesforce reporting results. What a top tech analyst sees in store for the names, and the conference call headlines moving shares after hours. Plus, a rough day for homebuilders, the real read on consumer affordability with the CEO of Tanger Outlets, and a read on retail investor sentiment from Charles Schwab. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones Member, SIPC before we had
- [00:31]
Carter Braxton Worth
AT&T business Wireless coverage, our delivery GPS
- [00:35]
Guy Adami
wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a
- [00:38]
Carter Braxton Worth
14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn, an influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business Wireless, routes are
- [00:49]
Guy Adami
updating on the fly and deliveries are on time.
- [00:52]
Carter Braxton Worth
And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though.
- [00:55]
Tim Seymour
AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.
- [01:04]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Nvidia shares higher by just under 3% after hours after the giant posted better than expected datacenter revenue gave solid guidance for Q1 sales. Did these results give the green light for the markets? We'll debate that. And the real read on retail shares of outlet operator tanger hitting nearly 10 year highs after its latest earnings earnings report. We'll hear directly from CEO Stephen Yoff about how his consumer is holding up and how deep affordability concerns really run. Plus a warning from Lowe's takes down the whole housing trade. Kava shares soar after their latest report and Bitcoin catches a much needed bid. Has the crypto space finally found its floor? I'm Melissa Lee. We are back at Studio B at the NASDAQ markets site. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Braxton Worth, Guy Adami and Julie Beal. We start off with earnings from the most valuable company in the market. Shares of Nvidia up by 2.8% after the AI giant beat profit expectations, posted datacenter revenue that grew by 75%. The conference call just kicking off at the top of the hour. Christine departs. Napoleon is here with the very latest. Christina?
- [02:10]
Christina Parts Neville
Well, what the number that moved the stock really, as you talked about at the Q1 Revenue Guide, $78 billion ahead of both street and buy side estimates. That's your headline. The quarter itself was driven by data center revenue up 20%, sequentially helped by networking products too because that falls within the data center category. That's the largest quarterly jump in company History. With gross margins holding in the mid-70s, demand is strong enough that even older Hopper and Ampere products are still sold out in the cloud. According to the company in this slide deck they had, the one soft spot was gaming down 13% sequentially with the CFO flagging supply constraints as a continued headwind into fiscal 2027. I bring this up because it still contributes roughly 7.7percent of total revenues. But that's a footnote that really the $78 billion guide is what matters at the moment.
- [02:56]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. What is the tone? So I mean the tone is just absolutely positive across the board here.
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Julie Beal
Yeah.
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Christina Parts Neville
Because of that 78 billion, which was way higher than even buy side estimates. And then it was going through the PowerPoint too. Free cash flow has doubled in just a year. 34 points, almost 35 billion dollars. Last year at this time for Q4 was 15 billion. The interesting thing is just the returns to the market in terms of shareholder buybacks. Last year was 8 billion. This year Q4, it was 4.1 billion. So perhaps there's an opportunity for them to return a little bit back to shareholders as opposed to acquisitions, etc.
- [03:32]
Melissa Lee
All right, Christina, thank you. Keep us posted. The conference call is about two minutes in right now. I'm missing it.
- [03:37]
Christina Parts Neville
Yeah, go reiterating the numbers.
- [03:39]
Tim Seymour
I'm okay.
- [03:39]
Melissa Lee
And listen, what do you make of the quarter?
- [03:41]
Tim Seymour
First of all, it's great to be back. It's like we should be playing welcome Back Katar or something by John Sebastian.
- [03:46]
Melissa Lee
That's all the songs in the whole world. That's.
- [03:50]
Tim Seymour
Anyway, it's great to be back and it's great to do it on a day when the stock that had to take us higher actually seemingly for now is taking us higher. I mean the things that Christina framed where not surprisingly this was a beaten raise. I think the things to me that are more interesting as you get into ASPS with Rubin and what that means for margin profile, one of the things we talk about that will be the beginning of the end and it's nowhere in the. In the horizon is when the margin degradation starts to happen. I don't see that happening. I think we're going to hear more good news, I think to China. Kind of the filings that you have H200 chips now actually getting ready to go to China. That's also good for amd. So this is great for the semiconductors which went into today at new all time highs. So it's. This is what we needed.
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Guy Adami
Margin 75%. Listen, I'll be the first to Say, I thought by now margins would be deteriorating. They're not. The fact that they're still 75% holding in there is remarkable good for them. Yes, the guide was in absolute dollars. It's extraordinary in percentage terms given what we've seen historically. I mean, it continues to sort of deteriorate. We've now what is about an 8 or 9% guide higher, which is still fantastic given the number. But bear that in mind. It's to me it's about margins. Christina said it's about the guide. I won't quibble with that. But I also say this. You know, if you look at the name now, it's got to prove itself in terms of that October high, which I think is to 12. Carter can speak to that. Here we are, 200. Is this the quarter that gets us through or do we stall here?
- [05:18]
Melissa Lee
What do you think?
- [05:18]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, I think the first thing, of course, is always price action. It's very muted. Right. The options market was implying a 4% move compared to the last 10 years. 40 quarters on average is about a 7. So the option market was anticipating something below average. And indeed it's not only below average, it's very muted, up less than 2%. My hunch is it's not enough to take out the highs. And there's a reason that this stock over the past six months is a market performer up 6,7%, whereas its brethren, as measured by the Sox index, is up 45%. So if relative strength is important, and it always is as a factor, Nvidia's relative performance or relative strength is very poor compared to the Philadelphia semiconductor.
- [06:01]
Melissa Lee
And you think that.
- [06:02]
Carter Braxton Worth
And I think the message after the print here is more of the same.
- [06:05]
Melissa Lee
All right, Julie Beal, has the story just become so transparent? That's why we're seeing the muted reaction. I mean, the hyperscalers, they all raised their capex. We got all these data points from the likes of TSMC and SK Hynix. They posted better than expected earnings. We heard from Jensen Huang at ceas. He was extremely bullish about demand. I mean, it's all out there already. Yeah.
- [06:28]
Julie Beal
This quarter is a pure open book test. There's really no reason to be surprised with any of the results. And it's really a function, I think where the stock moves is a function of guidance. And I think that the guidance is good for sure. But I don't think it is quite the breathtaking liftoff that we've seen in prior quarters. And I think that's what you need to kind of propel and find those recent highs. But where I think they can do more work is still in the operating margin expansion. I'm very excited as a super nerd that they are expensing their stock compensation and I hope more companies do it. But other than that, I mean I think good clean print but I wouldn't expect too much from here in terms
- [07:06]
Melissa Lee
of what we want to hear on the conference call. I mean I think a big question is the high costs, the skyrocketing rocketing costs of memory and the impact on margins.
- [07:15]
Tim Seymour
Look, I think that's right. I think we could hear about a 30% hit to memory out in the future especially on Ruben. I don't know if it's right now been we've been speculating on the cost of memory for everybody in this earnings season based upon what we've seen. I do think the look Jensen is out there trying to talk about this isn't just about hyperscalers. This is really about you know enterprise and agents and where we are actually seeing a much broader demand story. And I think that's fair. I really do. I think this is a story though I would continue to want to look at the margins. This is what guys jumping in on by the way the open book test guy didn't know on that but to don't feel bad, you're not alone. And anyway I think there's a lot to answer but I think China, the open air deal, they've nibbled. They've thrown that out there under the tape in the after hours that they're actually going to finalize some of that deal. We want to hear maybe a little bit more about other strategic these circular trades that they're involved in. I mean these are. This is part of the story that has Wall street perplexed and excited all at the same time. I think we need more detail.
- [08:15]
Melissa Lee
Well maybe that's why trades at the valuation of trades at. It's not a huge. It's not where it used to be.
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Guy Adami
No.
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Melissa Lee
At all.
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Guy Adami
It's price earnings Reasonable. Very reasonable.
- [08:24]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
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Guy Adami
Given the absolute reason though if you,
- [08:27]
Melissa Lee
if you take out those revenues or discount the revenues that they get from the circular financing then what do you come up with?
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Guy Adami
Well I don't want to say the margins be half of what they are because I can't do that math in my head. But they're not 75% let's put it that way. It's a much different story. But maybe it's okay. The market is. Nobody seemingly is concerned about what you just Brought up. Now with all that said, Tim's point about memory, I think in your point is spot on. Did they get in front of that or are they behind the curve on the memory? Because that obviously if they're behind the curve that's going to hurt margins. Now with that said they may get a pass on that given a huge run up over the last month or two months in memory. But that to me is a concern. The, the, the viability and the longevity of these margins.
- [09:10]
Tim Seymour
Really quick. Jefferies flagged some really interesting stats out there that the derating of the tech sector is such that staples are now more expensive than the tech sector and this, this, this derating has happened at the fastest pace in 20 years. So you know you valuation and what's priced in for Nvidia, I got to tell you I'm going to take the side that I think it's actually really cheap here and I understand that the market has had a lot of information but I understand on a relative basis to itself I'm okay with where we are in this valuation. I think actually the market needs to adjust to that.
- [09:41]
Melissa Lee
Let's bring in in video bull Chris Rolland. He's the senior semiconductor analyst at Susquehanna Susquehanna. He's got a $250 price target on the stock. Chris, great to have you with us. Melissa, what's your take so far?
- [09:53]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah, it was a monster guide. We were really concerned about capping that guide on supply constraints but they are managing very well.
- [10:04]
Melissa Lee
Are you concerned about the impact of memory costs?
- [10:08]
Carter Braxton Worth
Memory costs, not so much memory availability perhaps, but they, they have probably the best planning team in all of semis and so I'm pretty sure they've gone out two years in order to garner supply. I'm just worried about how much upside from here they can actually get. I think there is still some room there but perhaps the dream a dream scenarios might be a little bit more difficult to reach.
- [10:39]
Tim Seymour
Chris? Tim, thanks. In a market context again I was just talking about some of the divergence in valuations in different sectors. What have you been doing in the last six weeks while tech overall, even though semis have moved higher, what is the analyst community, the divergence between the markets and the analyst community. You sound where you have been and I appreciate the consistency. Has anything changed for you in terms of what you're doing with your model in the last six to eight weeks when it feels like we're in a terrible bear market in technology even though semis are higher?
- [11:09]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah, I think hardware we're now understanding how powerful it is that we still are in the early stages of a massive, massive cycle and unfortunately software is being eaten by AI and so some of the, the application layer investments are being compressed in terms of valuation. But hardware, it looks great and right now we love the optical interconnect space as a next place to look and also AI power using semiconductors as well.
- [11:50]
Guy Adami
Chris, if there's a risk to this story in Nvidia, it's competition coming seemingly out of nowhere. Is it, is it out there? Is there anything on the horizon that we should be concerned about?
- [12:00]
Carter Braxton Worth
So absolutely, the hyperscalers are going to make investments in their own silicon. I've talked about it on this show. I believe ARM as well as OpenAI are going to have a collaboration on their own. ASIC and then Google's been doing incredible things with tpu. Amazon's doubling down. You've seen in their capex number in their own infrastructure as well. So that will happen. There will be a diversification outside of Nvidia. But if you look at the numbers posted by the hyperscalers here, they're still growing at a consistent company rate. So, so yes, excess dollars are going to go to their own internal efforts, but Nvidia is still growing extremely well, even on the back of hyperscalers who are diversifying.
- [12:51]
Melissa Lee
All right, Chris, keep us posted on what else comes up on that call, which is now about 11 minutes in. Chris Rolling of Susquehanna and we should note that the stock is losing a little bit of its altitude. It's up by about 1.7% right now. It had been up by as much as 3 1/2% initially in the back of these earnings. I've asked, I think everybody we've had on after the Nvidia earnings, after the Nvidia print. Okay, so this is good. It's a good read through for all the hardware makers in theory. But does this sort of fuel that hardware is eating software narrative? The software feel additional pressure because we've got evidence that this trade is still on.
- [13:27]
Tim Seymour
I don't know if it adds fuel to a fire that still was uncertain. You know, we'll talk about Salesforce in a minute. We'll talk about Snowflake. I'm not sure we have answers today, but what I would point out is the, the, the breadth, the depth of the demand on the hardware side is indisputable and that's something that I think also for the broader market and we've talked about this many times where you're seeing a margin profile of, of traditional companies Changing dramatically Software I don't think we know.
- [13:54]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Julie Beal is Nvidia a value stock in your view?
- [14:00]
Julie Beal
I don't think I could quite call it a value stock with growth like that but I do think that for sure relative to other names it is a very high quality business and the biggest knock you can have against it is just the customer concentration. It is a little bit nerve wracking to think there are only probably five boards of directors that can make a pretty meaningful decision that will impact their business. And that's the only part, that's really the only fly in the ointment. But I actually think that's why the multiple is what it is. It reflects the nervousness that we still don't have good economic business models around AI yet. And so that part is still uncertain.
- [14:37]
Carter Braxton Worth
Just as Julie said the multiple it gets down to that at the end of the four multiple at 24, 25 isn't much more in the market. So the question is is this about where it belongs? And the market is saying right now people are trading this right now that they're for now is not a lot
- [14:51]
Guy Adami
of upside software question. We talked about it with Mike on your closing bell about I don't know, 40 or so minutes ago and you brought up the question that I was actually thinking in my head proving once again you reside with rent free but you know that you're trying to find a bot. Yeah, I've been trying to sort of, well software. You think at some point it's going to bottom out. Microsoft had probably one of the better days it's had in a while but is it just an oversold bounce or is there something there? I mean a name like Adobe, if you want to pull that up that made its all time high four years ago and we're going to talk about Salesforce to Tim's point I mean it's clearly problematic and that trade that long, semis long tech short software continues to work like a champ.
- [15:34]
Melissa Lee
Nvidia Shares up by 1.9% Christina parts Nevilles is more on the conference call
- [15:38]
Christina Parts Neville
Christina so the CFO is speaking right now and she said a few things. One, she said we, we believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to address future demand including shipments extending into calendar 2027. So people wanted to hear that reiteration that demand was going to continue into next year. She also said quote we expect sequential revenue growth as this is for data center revenue throughout calendar 2026 exceeding what was included in the $500 billion Blackwell and Rubin revenue opportunity. So perhaps they in the Q and A will increase that $500 billion. And then in their 10k there is a section about Open Air. Really vague and kind of not new news, but it's a headline so I'll just share it. Finalizing investment and partnership agreement with OpenAI. No assurance we will enter into an agreement with OpenAI. And then I'm just hearing now too because I got earpiece in one ear and the call in the other. They're talking about sovereign, sovereign AI and how it's grown exponentially. She just put a number on it too. But these are all tidbits that people wanted to hear to actually quantify that demand is going to continue into 2020, fiscal 2027.
- [16:43]
Melissa Lee
Christina, thanks. Keep us posted. Christina. Parts Neville and the stock continues lower. I mean we've gotten everything that we want. So what do you make of this? It's very interesting. Price action.
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Tim Seymour
I think the price action will continue to be interesting through the rest of the evening and maybe as we open tomorrow. I don't think there's going to be any disputing that their core business is alive and well and and I don't think you're overpaying for it here. So I actually feel pretty comfortable owning in video. Again, we're going to question all we want about what's going on in hardware. I don't know anyone out there that sees a let up in hardware. And again, while it hasn't Carter's right. The relative underperformance to the Sox is notable. Except for the fact that the Sox has this bubblicious stuff called memory which is driving the whole thing higher. And I'm not sure it's fair to be held to that standard.
- [17:29]
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean again, so six months it's performed in line with the S and P. It is the most valuable, most prominent, most owned, most loved company and yet it is delivering market returns and it's its peer group up 40, 50%. That must mean something. And the market is saying it does right now.
- [17:47]
Tim Seymour
I like you playing cards though. I mean it sounds like a pair of twos here. No, we're not doing it.
- [17:53]
Carter Braxton Worth
Pair of fives.
- [17:54]
Tim Seymour
Pair of six.
- [17:55]
Carter Braxton Worth
Pair of fives.
- [17:56]
Tim Seymour
Bubblicious.
- [17:57]
Guy Adami
That was great gum.
- [17:58]
Melissa Lee
Wasn't there an issue with Bubblicious?
- [18:00]
Guy Adami
You don't remember this?
- [18:00]
Tim Seymour
There was an issue with Bubba.
- [18:01]
Melissa Lee
Was there something like called Yum or something like that?
- [18:03]
Guy Adami
Yeah, there was.
- [18:04]
Tim Seymour
There was a lot of personal. There was a big bubble gum period. It was like in the Chiefs. It was Bubble. Yum bubble.
- [18:11]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
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Carter Braxton Worth
Sorry, but Bazooka was the original.
- [18:13]
Melissa Lee
Madam, do you have something to say regarding Nvidia?
- [18:16]
Guy Adami
I think we've said a lot about it. I mean, I will tell you this, Tim has been. He's not wavering on the Nvidia story, and despite the fact that since October it hasn't done all that much, it's done a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of years. So he's been spot on. Valuations not concerning. I've been concerned about margins. That's been unwarranted. I mean, it's steady as she goes.
- [18:35]
Melissa Lee
It appears Nvidia is up 1% right now. Meantime, Lowe's delivering a warning that sent ripple effects throughout the housing sector. The home improvement retailer CEO saying there aren't a lot of tailwinds for the group, that consumers feel locked into their homes and are not buying and selling. Shares of Lowe's were down more than 5%, while rival Home Depot more than gave back yesterday's gains. Builders, meantime, fell 2 1/2 percent, their worst day since November, even as mortgage rates hit their lowest level in nearly four years. What's going on, Tim?
- [19:04]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think this is when you. When you hear from Home Depot and Lowe's and you get some sense of really the bleak out look they have, especially from the. I mean, Home Depot, through their professional community and that business has a lot of insight. It's also coming on a day when mortgage rates are four year. I don't know what's the number? I mean, they're as low as they've been in a long time. I'm not sure what that time period is. It's also fascinating that homebuilders are getting this. What I'm also hearing in terms of this very big rotation we're seeing into things that are hard and build and things that people that do that. You're talking about homebuilders. A lot of people are saying this is a place actually you should have exposure in a world where we're uncertain about people that are in the services world.
- [19:45]
Melissa Lee
There is one little line from Home Depot about the impact of tax refunds, which overall to retail is expected to add about 2%, but they said it's only going to add half a percent compared to. So they're really not going to see much of an impact or something that everybody thought was going to be something great for retailers.
- [20:00]
Guy Adami
Question you have to ask, I think, is, is, are these leading indicators? Is the guidance that Lowe's gave, is that a leading indicator? Is what they're seeing in terms of the housing market. Again, you brought up correctly the fact that, you know, 1030 year mortgages are probably the lowest they've been in four or five to four years.
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Melissa Lee
Four years.
- [20:15]
Guy Adami
Four years, right.
- [20:15]
Melissa Lee
Yep.
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Guy Adami
The problem is there's the other side of the equation is how strapped is the consumer. Delinquency rates continue to tick higher. The unemployment rate is fine. But below the surface, is there damage being done in the employment market that to me overrides interest rates.
- [20:29]
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean this is what a pair of twos really is. And if we have a char we can pull it up on the screen.
- [20:33]
Tim Seymour
Tim. I mean, Tim, this is a pair.
- [20:35]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, no, you're right. You mean better pair of eyes. You know, these are one hand has to beat the other. But, but Home Depot, same price was a year ago and two years ago and three years ago. what point is it worth fooling with? And I would say not a short, not a long. Just play a different card.
- [20:49]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, we'll keep an eye on shares of Nvidia, bring you more headlines from the conference call as we get them. Plus the after hours action in Salesforce, Snowflake and more. And a number of fast movers catching our attention. Why Diageo is losing its buzz. The major move higher in shares of Kava and the rebound in Bitcoin as crypto tries to stage a comeback. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
- [21:12]
Tim Seymour
Comcast Business helps retailers become seamlessly restocking frictionless paying favorite shopping destination. It's how nationwide restaurants become touchscreen ordering quick serving eateries and how hospitals become the patient scanning data, managing healthcare facilities that we all depend on. With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership, Comcast business is powering the engine of modern business. Powering possibilities Restriction supply before we had
- [21:42]
Carter Braxton Worth
AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS
- [21:45]
Guy Adami
wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a
- [21:48]
Carter Braxton Worth
14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn. An influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business wireless routes are
- [22:00]
Guy Adami
updating on the fly and deliveries are on time.
- [22:03]
Carter Braxton Worth
And the influencer did get us 53 new followers though.
- [22:06]
Tim Seymour
AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything.
- [22:11]
Melissa Lee
What do the steam engine, electricity and AI have in common? These technologies not only change how we work, they can transform entire economies. I'm Stephanie Huang, host of where the Internet Lives, a podcast from Google and Latitude Studios about the unseen world of data centers. Explore how data centers are unlocking growth in every sector of the economy from agriculture to medicine to manufacturing. Data centers are powering a new era of AI innovation. Listen to where the Internet lives wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money. Salesforce on the move after hours, the software giant beating on top and bottom lines, upping its dividend and expanding its stock buyb. That call kicking off at the top of the hour soon. Modi's got the details. Hey Sima. Hey Melissa. CEO Mark Benioff of Salesforce touting its strong backlog Asian forest customer wins like Wyndham hotels and its mega buyback of $50 billion saying quote, I have never seen performance like this. He then said, this is obviously not a rational market. So we're using our remarkable cash flows to take advantage. This is not our first SaaS apocalypse. We've been through many SAS apocalypses. I remember the horrible one in 2020 when not only software industry was dying but we were all dying. But we made it through that one and we will get through this one as well. But Melissa, guidance is what investors are scrutinizing. With 2027 revenue outlook coming roughly in line. 45.8 to 46.2 billion was the range provided the estimate was 46 billion RBC Capital calling it a miss. And as we've seen this quarter as software companies miss or guide conservatively, that seems to reinforce the whole AI disruption fear. But Salesforce is still in the early innings of this whole AI adoption cycle, launching Agent Force. In 2024 it did see annual recurring revenue jumping from 500 million to 800 million quarter on quarter. I guess the question is how much more justification Wall street needs. We do have CEO Mark Benioff joining our colleague Jim Cramer on Mad Money tonight. Melissa. All right, Seema. Thank you, Seema. Modi, A lot, a lot has to be said about where the stock is coming from.
- [24:09]
Guy Adami
Amazing.
- [24:10]
Melissa Lee
Which has just been. It's decimated. Exactly. Obliterated. And yet it is still down. When we see the in line guidance
- [24:18]
Tim Seymour
and when they're buying back, you know, almost 30% of market cap.
- [24:22]
Melissa Lee
Right. So what does it say?
- [24:23]
Tim Seymour
It's. Well, it tells you first of all, if, if the AI boom is something that they're experiencing, it doesn't feel so great. When subs are, when you look at constant currency organic sub growth of 8% next year, that doesn't sound like a world where things are booming. And again, you need to see an acceleration in the second half of the year for that. So some green shoots in agentic. There's the agent force is certainly getting some, some follow through, some traction. But I don't know that this answers the software question. And it probably doesn't.
- [24:55]
Guy Adami
$50 billion to Tim's point the market cap now is probably 175. Given the sell off we're at a 3ish. If we're 180, this is a 3 year low in the name. If they say, you know, we can do an accelerated $50 billion stock buyback maybe that would get some giddy up to the stock.
- [25:10]
Melissa Lee
But accelerated versus regular, accelerated versus right,
- [25:13]
Guy Adami
which I think they can do. I don't know the exact rules but they could probably use that language. The market would like that. But to Tim's point the growth is just not there. I mean valuation has been, people have been talking about the valuation being reasonable now for the last 40 something dollars in the stock and it's been now been cut in half since its all time high I want to say in November of 2020.
- [25:32]
Melissa Lee
Yeah Julie, your thoughts?
- [25:35]
Julie Beal
I think the biggest challenge for them is that Agentic is not really ready for primetime in the way that I think it can be meaningful revenue contributor. A lot of companies are saying yeah, you can like pile on the air, I'll play with it around. But they're not really able to draw a lot of revenue from it. And so without that they can't really point to anything that says they're going to get through this cycle as more than just, you know, cold storage for data as the system of record. Until they have that, it's really hard to prove a counterfactual for them. And you know, I agree. I think that the thing for them to do and the thing that we heard before all of these software companies were reported was like please buy, buy your buyback your stock aggressively. And I agree it's a big buyback but an accelerated one would feel much better.
- [26:17]
Guy Adami
Yeah, I love when Julie Beal agrees with you. Yeah, makes me feel smart. And that rarely happens.
- [26:25]
Tim Seymour
It's not an open book test either.
- [26:26]
Guy Adami
Well no, it's actually how about the
- [26:28]
Carter Braxton Worth
charts gets back to the same thing. There is no such thing as good or bad news. There's just news and it's how the market interprets it. So the market is saying this buyback is no good, this quarter was no good, otherwise it would be up, not down. It's down in the market. People are selling, not buying it. There is no premise to buy a stock that's just in a downtrend like this.
- [26:48]
Melissa Lee
Coming up much more earnings action Nvidia's conference call still underway about a half an hour in right now. Plus details from after hours movers like Snowflake and Synopsis and the pops and drops in today's session why shares of Diageo are going flat, a bounce bounce back in Bitcoin and the surge in kava as investors fill up their plates. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at Times Square. Back right after this. Hey, this is Jeff Lewis from Radio
- [27:20]
Tim Seymour
Andy live and uncensored.
- [27:21]
Stephen Yalof
Catch me talking with my friends about
- [27:23]
Tim Seymour
my latest obsessions, relationship issues and bodily ailments.
- [27:27]
Stephen Yalof
With that kind of drama that seems
- [27:28]
Tim Seymour
to follow me, you never know what's going to happen.
- [27:30]
Melissa Lee
You can listen to Jeff Lewis live at home or anywhere you are. Download the SiriusXM app for over 425 channels of AD, free music, sports, entertainment and more. Subscribe now and get 3 months free offer details apply. Not every sale happens at the register before AT&T business Wireless checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.
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Tim Seymour
AT&T business wireless connecting changes everything
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Christina Parts Neville
91% of dog parents say their pup is an important member of the family and 40% would even save their dog over a human stranger. If that's you, you're not just a
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
feel confident that you're giving your pup something truly good. Build a plan tailored to your dog's needs with perfectly portioned meals and five recipes to choose from. Visit ollie.com obsessed and use code obsessed for 60% off your first box. Welcome back to Fast Monday. The Dow jumping more than 300 points. The S&P up 8.10 of a percent to the NASDAQ leading the charge climbing nearly 1.3. The S& P joining the NASDAQ in positive territory for the week. Shares of Kava surging more than 26% for its best day ever. On the back of earnings last night, the Mediterranean restaurant chain unexpectedly posting same store sales growth, full year revenue topping $1 billion for the first time. Meanwhile, alcohol stocks getting hit today. Diageo down nearly 16% after cutting guidance. The company also slashing its dividend. Boston Beer missing Q4 revenue estimate. Assets and Molson cores getting downgraded to underperform at bank of America. And crypto bouncing back. Bitcoin back above $69,000. And Ethereum, Solana and Ripple also seeing some big gains. It is still down though, more than 10% this month and 20% for the year. Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper sending a letter to Whirlpool's board accusing the appliance maker of destroying shareholder value, calling for sweeping changes to its strategy. Whirlpool pool has dropped more than 30% over the past year. Tim, the alcohol stocks, what's going on?
- [30:26]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean, in, in the case of Diageo, this really did feel like a reset. This really felt like this is a company that's trying to transform that. We know what some of the secular trends have been in booze and spirits. We know what some of the aspirational demand coming from China that erosion has looked like. This feels to me like an opportunity. I have to say I was interested in these stocks probably 20, 30% higher. I don't own the stock and I do think it's something that looks interesting here. I do think that there is a brand. I do think there is actually real demand and I do think there's a margin story.
- [31:00]
Melissa Lee
All right. We have got an update on the CME technical issues that led to metals and natural gas futures trading being briefly halted this afternoon. A source familiar with the situation telling CNBC that the technical issues were not data center related. Last November, CME futures were taken offline for hours after a cooling issue at a dentist. Data center paused trading. So that's the latest on cme. Coming up, the state of the consumer. Tanger CEO Stephen Yalov joins us with his post earnings take on retail and whether affordability concerns are weighing on his shoppers. Fast Money is back into
- [31:34]
James Castulius
Mr.
- [31:34]
Tim Seymour
Moment of Fast. Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [31:47]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of outlet mall operator Tanger jumping more than 5% after Q4 results. The stock closed today at its highest since October 2016. The company hosts its conference call tomorrow morning. Tanger CEO Stephen Yalof joins us here on Set for more on the quarter and the state of the consumer. Stephen, great to have you back.
- [32:05]
Stephen Yalof
Thanks for having me.
- [32:06]
Melissa Lee
You know, there is so much concern going into the quarter because of the bankruptcies. We've seen Sachs and Eddie Bauer reducing their footprint by a lot. How did you offset those bankruptcies?
- [32:16]
Stephen Yalof
Well, you know, our guidance really contemplates a lot of different potential outcomes. But as it relates to those particular brands haven't rejected any leases. You know, and I've said before, you know, in the outlet space especially, that's where the customer is coming for value. So a lot of brands, brands, before they go out of business or close their stores, they want to make sure that they, they keep those outlet stores open because they move a lot of inventory merchandise through them. I think in the case of the SAC stores, I think what we'll find is it'll be pretty competitive because those leases are pretty much under market across the whole population of real estate right now. And I think there's a lot of brands out there that are looking to grow their footprint.
- [32:53]
Melissa Lee
What are you seeing in terms of the length of leases? And at the end of the year there tends to be shorter leases. Correct. Just to get through the holiday season. And there's some aspect of seasonality to
- [33:01]
Stephen Yalof
that for that, for the bankruptcies themselves.
- [33:03]
Melissa Lee
No, no, sorry.
- [33:04]
Stephen Yalof
Overall, yeah, you know, look, there's, there's always going to be temp leases. You know, your occupancy is always going to be much higher in the fourth quarter because there'll be tenants that want to just come in and occupy space for that period of time. Those are actually the most expensive leases because if a brand wants to come in and only capture that fourth quarter selling, they're always, they're used to spending a bit, little bit more money.
- [33:24]
Guy Adami
You talked about the mitigation strategies for bankruptcies, but now, and by the way, I think we've talked about your stock very favorably over the last couple of years and mel just mentioned 10 year high. But now you can start to play offense Like M and A Strategies is one of the themes in the note that I read.
- [33:38]
Stephen Yalof
Yeah, well, look, it's something that we're looking at. There's a lot of, there's a lot of companies out there. They see us as an operator, we're an owner and operator shopping centers. And I think the operation business that we built is second to none. You know, we're marketers, we're leasers and we're property managers and I think that's where we're getting rewarded. By our investors.
- [33:56]
Tim Seymour
So talk about, though, an acquisition kind of pipeline. This is something, I think, in your earnings call. I mean, I think this is where the street is focused, frankly. And is that something that people should be concerned about also? Just from a, from a balance sheet perspective, from a free cash flow perspective, because this growth, as guy said, playing offense right now may be what you're supposed to do.
- [34:14]
Stephen Yalof
Yeah, well, first of all, I think the, I think the public markets are rewarding us for going out and acquiring properties. We've opened seven new centers now in the last three years, one that we built, six that we've bought, the most recent of which is Legacy in Kansas City, where the Kansas City Chiefs just announced that they're moving to the West Village entertainment district, which is pretty much where our shopping center is. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than smart, but in that particular asset, you know, we, we're going to invest a lot of money into a property like that because we see that a little bit more hybrid. We see a lot of brands want to come in, a lot of restaurants and food and beverage, which if you look across our portfolio, that's why we're winning right now. We're not just an outlet shopping center. We're an outlet shopping center that really caters to a lot of people that are coming through in that marketplace.
- [34:59]
Melissa Lee
What does your data tell us about the consumer and how the consumer shopping last night in the State of Union address there is, I don't want to say dismissive, but, you know, President Trump is saying the prices of everything are going down. So the affordability issue that had been so, you know, front and center for a long time, he really downplayed that. And you got to wonder whether or not the consumer really is feeling some pressure because that is, in fact, what we heard in conference calls.
- [35:24]
Stephen Yalof
Yeah, well, look, I think the math equation of affordability with inflation going down, but employment and wages going up, I mean, you could do the math and say, okay, things will probably be more affordable. But in, I think the consumer would probably argue that affordability means things are a lot cheaper than they are today. And, you know, I talked about it the last time I was on the show with you. We talked about price deflation, especially in the outlet channel, where you can go and you can buy items that are priced below that inflationary level. So value pricing is really the big winner. It was in the fourth quarter. And what we can, we continue to see our traffic build in both January and February of this month, this month. And because of that, I Just think the customer is voting. They still want to buy things and they want to buy them at the best possible price.
- [36:12]
Melissa Lee
All right. Stephen, it is always great to see you.
- [36:14]
Stephen Yalof
Thank you.
- [36:14]
Melissa Lee
I hope you'll come back.
- [36:15]
Guy Adami
Handsome man. Stephen Yalov. Am I allowed to say that?
- [36:17]
Melissa Lee
You just did.
- [36:19]
Tim Seymour
Half the stuff I'm wearing right now I bought in his outlet mall.
- [36:22]
Melissa Lee
Oh really?
- [36:23]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, absolutely. What you think keeps me the best dressed guy on fast money?
- [36:27]
Melissa Lee
You guys are all wearing the same shirt. I just said that basically. I mean I'm a stock guy.
- [36:32]
Guy Adami
Well, actually 15 multiple obviously is a bit of a trough multiple. I think even Steven would agree they don't deserve a market multiple. But give them an 18 multiple on the two and a half dollars and you got a $45 stock which was the prior all time high ten years ago. I think that's where it goes.
- [36:48]
Melissa Lee
How's the chart look?
- [36:49]
Carter Braxton Worth
You know, it's remarkable. Would you ever. One more. Would you consider a defensive read if
- [36:53]
Guy Adami
you brought the guest?
- [36:55]
Tim Seymour
I know you're not supposed to do
- [36:56]
Carter Braxton Worth
it, but you know what, I'm such a hybrid myself. We can do something like that.
- [37:00]
James Castulius
Well done.
- [37:00]
Carter Braxton Worth
Here we go.
- [37:01]
Tim Seymour
You did it.
- [37:01]
Carter Braxton Worth
Your peak in relative performance to the IYR was in the financial crisis low, meaning your Stock lost only 45% when REITs lost 70 and the S&P lost 50. Would you consider yourself a defensive asset within the asset class because that's the way the market treated you in the worst sell off in the last hundred years?
- [37:22]
Stephen Yalof
You know, I think there's been a reinvention of this company over the last five years. I think post Covid, I think we've proven to be extraordinarily resilient.
- [37:29]
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah.
- [37:29]
Stephen Yalof
And I think one of the major things that we've done, we've changed from being a developer of valid centers to being an owner and operator of shopping centers. And you know, by, by doing that, I think that we've added a number of different uses, we've added a number of different, you know, recession proof. We're going after restaurants, restaurants, we're going after entertainment. So we're bringing the customer in and then we're getting them to stay for the shopping or the customer comes for the shopping and then we get them to stay for the other, the entertainment, the other things. So as far as we're concerned, I think we've built this muscle of operations and if somebody says, hey, what should Tanger be famous for today? It's really an owner of shopping centers, but really as an operator of shopping centers for sure.
- [38:08]
Melissa Lee
Stephen, once again, thank you.
- [38:13]
Tim Seymour
So well delivered.
- [38:15]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, are the bulls losing steam? What our next guest sees in retail investor sentiment and why some younger traders are feeling the most uneasy. The details on fast money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. As a bubble, fears rise on Wall Street, Main street is also taking a more cautious stance in the market. The latest trader survey from Charles Schwab showing a decline in overall sentiment with 52% of retail traders describing themselves as bullish, down from 57% in Q4 and nearly 6 in 10 saying the market is overvalued. For more on the finding, let's bring in James Castulius, Schwab's head of trading services. James, great to have you with us. This seems like a change, do you sense like a change going on from the before that was the buy every dip mentality?
- [39:03]
James Castulius
Well, I think the buy the dip is still present, Melissa, but I do think we're seeing a bit of a change in shift and especially you put up some of the headline numbers. But the AI shift, the bullishness and shift was even more pronounced, going down about 12 percentage points. And so I definitely think we're the tide's turning a bit certainly.
- [39:20]
Melissa Lee
For what do you see in terms of the reaction to the software sell off that we have seen? Are you seeing retail traders going in and buying that dip or are they really staying away from that?
- [39:31]
James Castulius
No, when we looked in January, Microsoft was our most bought security. And it's interesting too because we're seeing a lot of selling at the top and we're seeing a lot of buying at the bottom. And so Tesla, which is always sort of in the top five of most traded, went from our most sold in December to our third most bought in January. And so dip buying is still pretty,
- [39:52]
Tim Seymour
pretty prominent for the retail smart retail trader. I mean everything you're talking about, right? I mean this is not the retail trader of old selling tops buying. Bob's.
- [40:00]
James Castulius
I think that's right. And I think if you looked at how, how the retail trader was positioning themselves coming into Nvidia earnings today, it would have been the same thing. We saw about 20% more options volume in Nvidia today. It was skewed way more on the call side. And the put rating we did see was much more about hedging than it was taking a bearish position.
- [40:18]
Melissa Lee
Julie's got a question.
- [40:20]
Julie Beal
Yeah, I was curious. We saw a lot of volume in biotech in the fourth quarter. Do you think that there are a lot of young people that feel shut out of really generating wealth in the housing market. They're trying to find more of these lottery ticket trades. Are you seeing them investing more thoughtfully than that?
- [40:36]
James Castulius
I think it's more thoughtful, Julie. I think we are absolutely seeing younger investors and all our traders trying to seek volatility. They're doing it in individual names, they're doing it in specific sectors, they're doing it in specific products and instruments. We've got the single stock zero dated options that have been quite popular with our clients since they, they went live a couple weeks ago. And so we don't see a lot of the sort of YOLO type things you might see in the biotech. It's, it's much more thoughtful than that.
- [41:03]
Melissa Lee
Zero day options seem a little YOLO ish and so do predictions markets. I mean there are all these new products and I'm wondering how the retail investor is reacting. What do you think is driving that shift to things like zero day options and predictions markets where it's a very binary outcome?
- [41:18]
James Castulius
Yeah, we do a lot in education to try to talk to the merits of zero day options, but in defined risk high probability trading as opposed to I just want to go long or I just want to go short. And so we see a lot more hedging than just sort of straight on. I want to take a position, I want to cross my fingers, I want to see what happens at the end of the day. And again, that's a lot of why we lean into education so much.
- [41:41]
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, the zero day options thing is, is a relatively new thing. Right. And by definition, if an investment has to have a time frame, you don't invest that, this drop will come down faster than that raindrop on the window. So it's all just outright speculation gone wild. Right. There is no investing if the timeframe. Games of chance, sports, dice, cards, dogs. Those are just dogs. Dogs. Dogs run, they'll bet on it or high lie or whatever. It's never right, whatever the paddle. But the point is that what would you characterize all of it is other than just outright, hey, it's fun to bet on the Giants or the Rangers and it's fun to bet on this.
- [42:17]
James Castulius
Yeah, we at Schwab, we draw pretty fine lines between sports betting and some of the things going on in prediction markets and then the options trading. So I think if you're talking about just a single leg option trade and I'm buying it now and the market's going to close in two hours and it's up or it's down, I think there's A fair comparison. I think if you're combining that with multi legged options positions and spreads and you're combining it with equity positions, we view that a lot different. And that's where I think in sort of what we said last time here and what Tim, I've heard you say a lot is the retail traders much more the smart trader now and they're doing a lot of more sophisticated things that historically would have been associated with institutions. And it's not just that sort of yolo. I'm going to go ahead and buy this and cross my fingers and hope.
- [42:58]
Melissa Lee
James, great to see you. Thank you. James Castulius, thanks so much.
- [43:01]
Carter Braxton Worth
High line.
- [43:03]
Tim Seymour
You ever been to High Bridgeport Highlight Milford High? I think they had, they both had one.
- [43:07]
Melissa Lee
Are we just going to digress or are we going to say something intelligent?
- [43:11]
Guy Adami
This is what struck me. We fielded more than 30 million calls to the service centers answered less than 30 seconds on average. That's amazing. But, but on average the new to firm retail client are in their 30s.
- [43:22]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [43:23]
Tim Seymour
Young that start young.
- [43:24]
Guy Adami
Start young.
- [43:26]
Tim Seymour
Watch fast money start young.
- [43:28]
Guy Adami
That's it right there.
- [43:29]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, that's nice.
- [43:31]
Melissa Lee
We got news on Anthropic. Kate Rooney's got the details. Kate. Hey Melissa. So the Pentagon appears to be escalating its ongoing fight with a giant Anthropic. It could make an unprecedented move. This is according to Axios are now reporting the Defense Department government has asked Boeing and Lockheed Martin to detail how much they actually rely on Anthropic's AI model. Claude that would mark what would be an early step towards what we have reported as well potentially labeling, labeling this company a supply chain risk. We have reported that according to sources but this would be new. So this designation at that level it's typically reserved for companies or adversaries. You think of Huawei for example. This is not common to happen to a US tech company. So it does mark a major shift here in the backdrop. Claude Anthropic's chat bot or AI model is really the only one right now that's been used for classified systems. There's been this back and forth. We've also reported Pete Hegseth, the Defense secretary has given CEO Dario Modi Modi until basically 5 o' clock on Friday to agree to this broader military use that is still ongoing. Anthropic has told us in a statement they are basically negotiating in good faith. They're not going to compromise safeguards. But there has been some pushback back and forth. There are competitors also popping up trying to fill the gap here including Xai. But that's the latest on this back and forth.
- [44:50]
Carter Braxton Worth
Mel.
- [44:50]
Melissa Lee
All right, Kate. Thanks. Kate Rooney. Coming up, purpose and profit how female leaders in biotech, pharma and health care are transforming business and reshaping industries. The latest CNBC changemakers next. More fast money into. You've got more for the Nvidia conference call. Let's get to Christina with that.
- [45:15]
Christina Parts Neville
Christina, the story coming out of Nvidia right now isn't just about Blackwell anymore. It's agentic and physical AI applications and they're actually starting to show up in the actual financial results, not just the roadmap. According to management on customers, hyperscalers were just over half of datacenter revenue, but growth was led by everyone else. So the demand base is really broadening on Vera Rubin, which is the next chip iteration. The CFO is really quite direct saying, quote, we expect pretty much every single customer to be purchasing Vera Rubin. Just timing on when and then you had demand sustainability. That's dominating all of these questions from the analysts. And one thing to watch though, starting this quarter, Nvidia is including stock based compensation in their non GAAP numbers. So EPS comparisons, earnings per share to prior periods will look a little bit different and models will need to be restated. It's a little technical but it'll change the numbers a little bit.
- [46:07]
Melissa Lee
All right, Christina, Thanks Christina. Parts nebulous. The third annual CNBC Changemakers list was released earlier today recognizing the women transforming business and philanthropy across sectors. For a few names making an impact in the health care space, let's bring in CNBC's Julia Warson. Julia well, Melissa, our CNBC Changemakers list includes a record number of leaders in biotech and pharma, including Gilead Sciences Chief Commercial Office Officer Joanna Mercier, the CEO of Lupin, who spearheaded a landmark effort to reshore Medicine Manufacturing, Novartis US Chief Commercial Officer Rashema Kemps Polanco and president president and CEO Helen Sabzavari, who's developing gene and cell therapies.
- [46:46]
Christina Parts Neville
Now Gilead's Joanna Mercier has helped Gilead
- [46:49]
Melissa Lee
stock grow about 30% in the past year, driving the global commercial launch for the world's first twice yearly HIV prevention injectable. The mission at Gilead has always been very, very clear around, you know, developing innovative medicines for really tough to treat diseases or ending potentially epidemics like hepatitis C, let alone now HIV potentially. And so that is something that really attracted me. You can find more about all of our CNBC changemakers at CNBC Changemakers Julia thank you, Julie Boorstin Final Trades Up Next. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable and but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer hey, this is Will Arnett, host of Smartless. Smartless is a podcast with myself and
- [48:11]
Carter Braxton Worth
Sean Hayes and Jason Bateman, where each week one of us reveals a mystery
- [48:15]
Tim Seymour
guest to the other two.
- [48:17]
Carter Braxton Worth
We dive deep with guests that you
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Tim Seymour
love, like Bill Hader, Selena Gomez, Jennifer
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Carter Braxton Worth
Aniston, David Beckham, Kristen Stewart, and tons more.
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Tim Seymour
So join us for a genuinely improvised
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Carter Braxton Worth
and authentic conversation filled with laughter and
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Melissa Lee
newfound knowledge to feed the smartless mind.
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Tim Seymour
Listen to Smartless now on the SiriusXM app. Download it today.