
A powerhouse earnings palooza… with Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon all reporting results. The details from the Mag7 reports, plus the numbers from Qualcomm, Ford, and Chipotle’s quarters. And if all the earnings weren’t enough, a Fed decision as well. What we heard from the central bank today in what could be Chair Powell’s last presser, and what to expect from his successor after clearing a key Senate hurdle on the path to a final vote. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a $12 trillion day. Four members of the Mag 7 reporting in just the last hour what they had to say about the state of the air trade and capital spending and what it could mean for the markets tomorrow. Plus, it's not just big tech on the move. After hours we are getting the reads on everything from big auto to big burritos, what these companies had to say about the consumer, the economy and more. And later, Jerome Powell is leading what's expected to be his last meeting as Fed chair. What he had to say about inflation, job growth and his post chair plans and the stage he is setting for his event successor. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter, Braxton Worth, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with the all important night for big tech as four of the seven largest companies in the market report quarterly results. Dieter Bosa standing by on Amazon. Julia Borson has met a CMOS tracking Microsoft. We start off with Mackenzie Sagalas on Alphabet. Those shares are the only one of the four moving higher after reporting better than expected results. The call kicking off in just the last hour. Mac, what's the latest?
Mackenzie Sagalo
And those shares steadily climbing over the course of the call as CEO Sundar Pichai leans into cloud as the proof point for Google's AI strategy. Pichai saying that AI is now the primary growth driver for Google Cloud with Q1 revenue from products built on Google's generative AI models. Up nearly 800% year over year. That helps explain why cloud backlog nearly doubled sequentially to more than 460 billion. A clear sign of demand for for their AI infrastructure and a major endorsement of Google's in house silicon strategy. 50% of backlog is expected to be recognized as revenue within two years. The key question now is whether Alphabet ups its capex guide from $185 billion as it expands capacity in the market for TPU's CFO Anat Ashkenazi, saying that capex hit $35.7 billion in Q1 with the overwhelming majority of that spending focused in AI specific infrastructure. Free cash flow reaching 10.1 billion in Q1. And finally, Mel's search was also stronger than expected, which is key because that high margin business is funding the build out.
Melissa Lee
Mac. Thanks Mackenzie Sagalis and we are tracking those gains in the after hour session. Guy, what do you make of this?
Guy Adami
Great. It's good for good for Google and it was a four or five quarters ago when people were talking about the existential risk of the search business vis a vis, a lot of people were concerned. That's proven to be at least in the short term or last year and a half or so unfounded. And this quarter in terms of search, good for them. But then you just look at the metrics, operating margins. I break it down two ways of gross revenue, 36% the street was at 34% of net revenue, almost 42% the street with the 39 and a half percent. So the operating the business better which in my opinion means they're deserving of a higher multiple. So in my opinion this move makes sense.
Melissa Lee
I mean it is a stunning move given they were up a lot. I mean the best of the Max 7 into the print.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, that and Amazon. And you know, I'd say that the expectations for Google weren't actually nearly as high as let's say for Amazon. And we're going to get to that in a second. But I think the takeaway here is that cloud business growing 60% year over year and they only have 13% market share. So they are taking market share. I mean that's, you know, you get that, that sort of growth, but it's also that vertical integration of it. Right. So if you think of that backlog, you think of how much business is coming to them because of their own TPU kind of infrastruct structure there. So it just seems like everything's flying or you know, on, you know, all cylinders.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. So we got to go to mash. They Got more on Alphabet Mac, Mel.
Mackenzie Sagalo
We're getting a revised capex range for Google. They are now guiding to 180 to 190 billion dollars this year in Capex spend. That's up from a previous estimate of 175 to 185 billion, which is already double last year.
Melissa Lee
Thank you, Mackenzie. Mackenzie Sagalo so another one raising capex here.
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah. In line with memory prices.
Tim Seymour
Right.
Carter Braxton Worth
I mean some of that's going to be 20 to 30% increase in capex into where these companies had guided probably six months ago. I'm guessing most of that is memory. But in terms of what Google has told us, they've broken down some of this. I mean 60% of that went into servers, 40% of that went into data center. And yeah, they are, I mean they're, they're competing on cloud and they're, they're, they're winning. But it's funny, we didn't really, you know, no one seems too focused on YouTube, which I think continues to also be a really positive story here. Waymo rides doubled. I mean there's, there's parts of the story that we, we really think, I really believe are part of the underappreciated value in Google. And right, by the way, Google's not really a value story anymore. So be careful at least relative to 2 to 2 metta, but relative to Microsoft, I mean it's trading at a premium.
Dan Nathan
You know, interesting. Of course you made this point that it was the best performer coming into the event and that's a testament to relative strength. Right. As all factors, momentum, relative strength are very powerful. It also, I think it's a fairly muted move and it also is a testament how accurate often the options market are. The implied move was 5.2, 5.3% and here we are at about 5.6. So up and out new high from the best performer coming into the race.
Melissa Lee
All right, let's get to Matti here. Shares are dropping after the company raised its full year Capex Guidance social stock. Also blaming Internet disruptions in Iran and limitations in Russia for the drop in daily active users. The call kicks off in about 25 minutes. Julia Borson's got the results here. Julia, Melissa.
Julia Borson
Shares down nearly 7%. And a key reason for that stock move is the company raising its Capex Meta now saying it expects to spend between 125 billion and $145 billion for the year, up from the prior range of 115 to 135 billion. Saying, quote, this reflects our expectations for higher component pricing this year and to a lesser extent additional data center cost to support future year capacity. Now that overshadowing the company accelerating its revenue growth to 33%, beating revenue expectations by nearly $1 billion. This is its fastest quarterly revenue growth since the third quarter of 2021 when it reported 35% growth. But despite that first quarter revenue beat the company's second quarter. Guidance for revenue was right in line with Wall street expectations. But on the upside, losses in Met his Reality Labs division seem to have peaked with smaller losses than anticipated in the quarter. Metta will be Melissa will be listening to Met his call which starts in under 30 minutes.
Melissa Lee
All right Julia, thanks. Julia Warson. Meadow was already getting penalized for raising its capex the last time. And here we are again. It's raising its capex. Capex spending yet again. Guy it was, it was one of the first ones who was able to show Wall street that they could monetize.
Guy Adami
I don't think, listen, I don't think this move to the downside is justified. Look, I, Carter will tell you the move is justified because here we are. I understand that but you know, you go through the numbers. First of all, if you just go through free cash flow, it's almost 12 and a half billion dollars, which was three times what the street was looking for. Revenue growth continues to impress. Margins still hang in there. I mean, maybe people are scared about the spend, I get it but they're being rewarded for the spend on the back of the margin improvement. So I think you buy the weakness in Facebook.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I mean, I guess as you intimated, I would take the other side. It's a stock that's been lagging, the market's been lagging. Super cap peers, relative strength again being so important. Bearish price volume correlation, the dropping in gapping several quarters before, I think it's a no go.
Tim Seymour
You know, it's interesting. Daily active users, something I've seen a couple of times, went down a few percent, you know, quarter over quarter and you think about 3.5 billion. I don't know how many people there are in the world, but that's a lot of people that are on, you know, Facebook sort of products and you know, that's probably a little bit of it now when you think about, you know, them being able to serve better ads, use that technology over the last few years. But now they actually have to monetize those users. And you know, when you think about users outside the U.S. the ARPU. Tim, what is, what is that again? Average revenue per user yeah, you know, it just monetize.
Carter Braxton Worth
You could do by the way, you could be different things, could be units, could be a lot of things. Unicorns.
David Zervos
Guys.
Guy Adami
That's an excellent point of view.
Tim Seymour
And your junk.
Guy Adami
Yeah, well, no unity.
Melissa Lee
Let's get back on track.
Carter Braxton Worth
Please, please.
Tim Seymour
When you think about that, it's just harder to monetize the rates that they get here in North America. So if you're not getting adoption of the models that are integrated into all their products, then that's going to become a problem. Especially when you keep raising capex. And I heard you say this in the cbot, I nailed that. You know, they don't have this cloud business. We just spent a lot of time talking about GCP and said sort of thing. So that's where the real question comes into the spend.
Carter Braxton Worth
I like the ad numbers. And again, ad impressions and pricing are their friend. I mean they are, they are extracting pricing power. So in terms of roi, depending on how you want to look at this, I understand increased capex means you need a bigger roi, but there was nothing wrong with those advertising numbers and there's nothing wrong with that part of their business and their ability to monetize. So I get that this stock has been really stuck in a relative underperforming trend for a while. I'm not sure what shakes it loose. You know, as a matter shareholder tonight you are not, you're not feeling as if there's an existential crisis.
Melissa Lee
I'm sorry, maybe not raising the capex for the second time in a row.
Carter Braxton Worth
Which again, I mean I just think why, why wouldn't you be raising capex when we've heard about memory prices doubling on Dr.
Melissa Lee
I guess we'll hear on the call
Tim Seymour
what, what is this is also a company is using a lot of their free cash flow. They're actually doing creative deals to kind of build out this infrastructure. They keep raising that. I mean that sooner or later is going to be something that is. I think it's weighing on the stock right now. It has over the last three to six months, but I think it continues weighing on.
Carter Braxton Worth
What's interesting is, is that Google's raised their dividend. So I mean in terms of actually paying it out, that's another sign that they, you know, they have more free cash flow to give.
Melissa Lee
All right, let's get to Amazon. Those shares are down by about 3% right now after beating top and bottom line estimates. Its cloud business also growing 28% year on year. The call kicks off at 530 CNBC's Deirdre boss has got the numbers some details Dean.
Deirdre Bosa
So that's growth number key for investors and yes it beat the street but it was just shy of the whisper estimate. And Amazon's cloud unit isn't alone. You guys have been talking about it. The other hyperscalers seeing strong cloud acceleration to Google's rate more than twice that of as but of course off a smaller base now last quarter a 60% increase in capex. You guys have also been talking about this. That really spooked investors and sent Amazon shares lower. No mention of any revision to CapEx in this quarter's earnings release, but we'll have to see if it's mentioned on the call and that could move the stock further in the after hours. Of course Metta and Google have already revised theirs. Bottom line though guys, is that Amazon stock, it has been the best performing of the Magic 7 this year. Estimates came down significantly after last quarter's conservative guidance. So it had to beat which it did. But perhaps not enough for investors to have total conviction that momentum will continue to be as and second quarter. Sales guidance that came in above but operating income outlook at its midpoint that was slightly it was just under what analysts were looking for. Mel.
Melissa Lee
All right, Deirdre, Thanks. Deirdre Bosa, San Francisco. You know of all of the Mag 7 stocks, you could argue that Amazon has been the best steward of capital over the years, being able to turn up spending when it wants to and getting return on that spending afterwards.
Guy Adami
So people look at the capex up almost 77% year over year. I think what they should be looking at is operating margins were 30, 13.1%. Street was at 11.7% and we've talked about their ability to sort of turn the knob and get margins. So they're getting higher margins on the back of a spend. I don't know why the stock is lower here. Maybe it's giving up what it got during the day. Maybe there's a double top in the chart that Carter could point out. But I think Amazon is fine here.
Carter Braxton Worth
They just weren't enough to knock your socks off after a heroic run. Again, Amazon was outperforming the peer group, actually even outperforming Google going into this print and actually had kind of tested. I'm sure Carter's got a view on whether you actually had broken out to a legitimate fresh new high. But again the second quarter guide is certainly ahead. Operating income was a little weak but if you're thinking about also valuation and we all know that doesn't really matter. Sometimes on earnings night you're buying Amazon about as cheap as you as you can. Certainly, you know, relative to a Wal Mart in terms of ebit you're talking 11 to 12 times. You know, I'm not having a problem owning this stock here.
Dan Nathan
And it's a muted response. I mean a big, to your point, a big move, 30, 35% right to a former high. A little backing and feeling quite normal.
Tim Seymour
You know going back to the cash flow conversation we're just having. I mean their free cash flow is $1.2 billion in the quarter. That's down from 26 billion a year over year. So you think about that Capex, they just raised it I think, you know, going back to last quarter 125 to 200. Now they just give 200 a little bit of a bump here. So again we're going to continue to see more creative ways for these companies to finance this build. And that's the question. At some point it'll just be a little too much, you know, it'll just be a little too much debt. It'll be a little less raising of the dividend or buying back stock or the whole kind of, you know, pastiche that you'd like to say that these word. Yeah that these gross companies should have.
Carter Braxton Worth
Thank you. Start throwing French words bonjour to you.
Tim Seymour
I don't know what it means.
Melissa Lee
One, one, one thing that an analyst wrote that I read during that that was interesting in terms of Amazon being able to apply AI to its own business and benefit from it. It has, it is the only of the Mag 7, the only one that has a blue collar workforce that has logistics business that could seriously benefit from AI efficiencies based on that.
Guy Adami
Right. And there's 100% Facebook is that you mentioned it. That's the one of these companies that seemingly has figured it out. Amazon probably has the most to gain from it based on what you just said. I agree with that. You're not seeing it necessarily in this quarter. Although I will tell you margin improvement is substantial despite the spend. So again I think Tim is saying it, I will say it. I don't think you run too far.
Tim Seymour
Well, there is risk. That very high margin advertising business, that's something that's grown dramatically. And when you think about what, you know, agents and just these, you know, LMS mean for advertising, I mean this is something that I think a lot of these models can have to deal with, especially the ones focusing on E commerce.
Melissa Lee
Let's get to Microsoft now. Shares had been moving higher but they are now in the red, down by about 2% after top and bottom line results came in ahead of estimates. Sima Modi's got the details. Conference calls in 15 minutes.
Sima Modi
Sima that's right, Microsoft's growth in Azure it beat Melissa. But perhaps the scale of the beat is being debated by Wall Street. Its backlog, which does represent cloud bookings, came in at 627 billion. That is a big number. But it does represent a slightly slower growth rate of 99% versus the 110% growth rate in it saw in the second quarter. Also notable, Microsoft spending on AI dropped to $31.9 billion. That's lower than what analysts were anticipating and down from last quarter, fueling speculation that Microsoft is curbing to Wall street pressure. What we do see evidence of though is co Pilot its flagship AI assistant trending in the right direction now up to 20 million seats from 15 million last quarter. In addition to guidance, we will want color on OpenAI following the termination of Microsoft's excellent exclusive agreement. Piper Sandler analysts made the point ahead of today's print that Microsoft has the in house talent to develop its own models. But the question is can it reach parity with competitors when AI advancements are progressing? Melissa, at a very fast pace.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Seema, thanks Sima Modi. There's also question as to whether or not they're going to have to spend themselves more and to seem as point Q2 CAPEX slowed down quarter on quarter. So that is a departure from what we are seeing from the rest of the bunch of.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I think you know, you guys were talking about it again with Brent Thiel I think on the prior hour here and you know you kind of laid out this whole thing about like their enterprise exposure, right? This is one of the only companies that we're really talking about tonight that has that exposure. And so when you go from 365 seats from 15 million last quarter, so sequentially up five on a base that's over 400 million, it's not exactly saying, you know, great uptake. That being said, this deal moving away from OpenAI integrating anthropic, having the enterprise security aspects of it, I would expect at some point this to accelerate further. And that's going to be the thing. If they, you know, they have azure growing at 40%, you know, 40%, there's nothing to shake a stick at right there. And that did accelerate sequentially. So I think there's probably a lot of things that set up for Microsoft when sentiment is not Particularly good right now.
Carter Braxton Worth
It's awful. And I actually think these copilot numbers, I realized given how many installs on oh, 365 are out there, that you've only got 20 million plus paid seats. But you know, that's a big number. That's a big growth number over the 15 that was the former benchmark. I think you're paid to own Microsoft and it's what we've said. This is a legacy player that's on everybody's desktop. I'm not sure it's going anywhere and I do think they're going to be able to ring the register and maybe it's kind of a Google story. I mean I think people we've counted them out when in fact they can partner now with anybody. Maybe this is part of the news coming out of the open air.
Melissa Lee
How's the chart look?
Dan Nathan
Well, the worst of all, of course coming into this, I mean the stock peaked back in August and it's had a meaningful bounce which gives less opportunity for a bounce. I'd put it in the pair of twos category.
Guy Adami
Just not good.
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, it was inevitable, right?
Guy Adami
The pair of two, it's not good
Tim Seymour
and it's not bad.
Carter Braxton Worth
Yeah, it's just like, come on, I think a pair of two sucks.
Tim Seymour
Well, it's actually I don't want a pair of two.
Carter Braxton Worth
I want a pair of twos. A pair of nines is like, you
Melissa Lee
know, parachute is like toast. Right. I mean it's just sort of like. Well there.
Dan Nathan
The trick with a pair of choose a poker is to fold. It's the least hand you could have it having no hand at all. But don't put any more money in.
Carter Braxton Worth
But if we're telling people to fold Microsoft, we're telling them that this no meaning.
Dan Nathan
Meaning it's not. There's no discernible immediate opportunity to be
Guy Adami
long or short waiting for the flop. And you might flop it to Mel, as you've said many times and I think you could flop it to in the form of this quarter. I don't think it's bad at all. And you can actually make a case for Microsoft on valuation still despite the move from what 350 or so over the last couple of weeks. So I think to Carter's point, it's a bounce that was looking for a reason to sell. I think you found it. But I don't think the quarter was bad.
Carter Braxton Worth
I'm embarrassed I use the word stocks on tv.
Tim Seymour
No, you're not.
Melissa Lee
No, we in the previous hour there was somebody who was on our air who said that word probably six times.
Guy Adami
No.
Carter Braxton Worth
Notice how she couldn't say food toxic.
Melissa Lee
I'm not. No, I'm not. Anyway, we should point out that Microsoft's call is 12 minutes away, so a lot can happen between now and then. Coming up, we are keeping an eye on all the tech moves, bringing the headlines from the conference calls as we do get them. And it's not just tech, of course. The latest numbers out of Chipotle, Ford and MGM straight ahead. And if all the earnings weren't enough, we are breaking down today's rate decision. There was one what Jerome Powell had to say at what could be his last press conference as chairman and what influence he could wield as he stays on the board. Do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. A burrito blowout.
Carter Braxton Worth
Oh, it's bad.
Melissa Lee
I had to say it. Shares higher by 4 and a half percent after posting a surprise. Same store sales growth in its latest quarter. Brandon Gomez joins us here on set with the numbers and the very latest US from the call. Hi, Brandon.
Brandon Gomez
Hey, Melissa. The call still ongoing, but EPS and revenue coming in line with the Street's estimates. Clearly the street liking that revenue jump of almost 7 1/2% year over year. And I do want to point out that the company said that's largely driven by new restaurant openings. Yes, transactions up 0.6% but average check was basically flat. Same store sales better than expected up half a percent compared to an expected 0.7% decline. Guidance for same store sales for the year expected to be flat as well. Now executives on the call giving a bit more color on the consumer saying March saw a bit of softening around the time of the Iran conflict starting and some restaurant openings will be delayed in the region for that reason. Trends have since improved. In April, the company marking a return of double protein as their success metric. And still Chipotle wants to remain cautious on their outlook given the dynamic of the consumer environment right now. Melissa so the call again still ongoing but some signs of improvement for for the Chipotle.
Melissa Lee
Chipotle I know you're a big fan of the double protein, Tim.
Carter Braxton Worth
Sure. And the chicken pastor back. I mean there's good, good times and also my neighborhood store actually staying open till 11 o' clock like they're supposed to and having all the ingredients. But it gets back to a valuation story. This is starting to get kind of interesting. This is a stock that also the chart maybe charters got a view on this, but I look at a 28 multiple on a trailing on a forward basis. And when Brandon talks about the organic growth coming from new store openings, that was part of the growth story for a long time. It was not necessarily check sizes, etc. So I think the worst is over here and I think it's time to nibble.
Melissa Lee
I mean to your point, historically low valuation but the knock is that they were opening stores a lot to drive it. Except that we were seeing it in the revenue. I mean it was not speeding up as quickly as before. It's not a growth story anymore.
Guy Adami
It's not a growth story anymore and that's reflected in the stock over the last year. However, you can re inflect a little bit. I think you're seeing it in the comps brand mentioned. I mean you're getting cops apparently point half a percent. The shoe is looking for negative point seven percent. So that's a good sign. You know the other good sign people are looking for a real deterioration in margins year over year. You got it. But it wasn't as bad as the street was looking for. I think they came in at close to 24%. So I'm with Tim and in terms of the technicals now we traded down to November Lows seemingly held and bouncing. Now I think you can own cmg.
Dan Nathan
Well, I mean, if I were writing the headlines, I would say that coming into the print, Chipotle was down 53% from its high of $70 two years ago. And tomorrow morning, if it gaps up to where it's indicated, it'll be down only 50% from its high. I mean, it's like.
Carter Braxton Worth
Sounds like some twos, people.
Dan Nathan
Worse, maybe.
Melissa Lee
Worse.
Dan Nathan
I mean, you know, come on.
Guy Adami
It's a good thing he's not a headline writer, though. I mean, that's a sour headline.
Melissa Lee
And it's long. It's not very pithy.
Guy Adami
You know what it does, Mel? That headline headline, it sucks.
Dan Nathan
Sort of like the Burrito Company.
Melissa Lee
All right. Anyway, Brandon, thanks. Coming up, the headlines from today's Fed decision. What could be chair Powell's last meeting and how his successor could shake up the central bank. You're watching Fast Money Live, the NASDAQ MarketSite in times Square. Back right after this.
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing mixed today. The dow falling nearly 300 points now on a five day losing streak, its longest since October. The S and P and Nasdaq virtually unchanged. WTI crude jumping 7%, settling above $100 a barrel for the first time since April 7. And interest rates rising across the board. Ward with the yield on the 10 year treasuries coming above 4.4% for the first time this month. Shares of Carvana, meantime, higher after topping earnings and revenue estimates. The company posting a 40% jump in vehicle sales from a year ago. Well, the Fed holding interest rates steady but seen the highest level of dissent since 1992 with four members taking issue with parts of the decision. It is expected to be his in and is expected to be his last meeting as Fed chair. But Jerome Powell told reporters he is staying on the board as a governor after his term ends. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen just responding on Fox News saying it is highly unusual what former chair, soon to be former Fed chair Powell did. And Larry, to be clear, the last time a Fed chair stayed on the board, it was at the request of the president. And one thing I can promise you, President Trump did not request Jay Powell to stay. I think it's highly unusual for someone who says he's an institutionalist and cares about norms at the Fed. This is a violation of all Federal Reserve norms. And I think it's an insult to Kevin Warsh, Mickey Bowman and Chris Waller. For more, let's bring in CNBC contributor David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies. David, great to have you with us.
David Zervos
Good to be here. Melissa.
Melissa Lee
How does this set the stage for Kevin Warsh, given the most divisive meeting since 1992 and Powell staying on the board?
David Zervos
I mean, it's a message, right? It's a message to Kevin. It's, it's, I don't think it's a pleasant one, but I think Secretary Benson said it very well. This is outside the norms. This is in all likelihood a political decision that is like that is going to keep the board from falling into majority hands of the president. And I think it was actually even more aggressively against Kevin. I would go further than the secretary and say that, you know, they're almost, I almost felt like at one point during the press conference that, you know, I felt like Jay was sticking around to be like the hall monitor and make sure that the chair builds consensus as is, you know, part of the norms of building consensus. And if he didn't, that Jay would be there to kind of push it back in line. I found that all very, I just think it's troubling. I don't understand why there's this political decision making. But you know, I get it, I guess I get it, I guess I get the political side of it. But it is a political decision and I think we should see it as that.
Melissa Lee
Well, I mean to be fair, to be fair, what is outside all norms is trying to remove a Fed governor.
Carter Braxton Worth
Sure.
Melissa Lee
Taking them to court, investigating a Fed chair. I mean all of it is outside. Regardless of where you stand in the political divide, all the of, of it is out of the norm. But at the end of the day, we're now pricing out completely. Fed cuts. Where do you see the first cut able to happen, likely to happen, possible.
David Zervos
Let me, let me, let me put it this way. I actually think we're still likely to get a cut by the end of the year. I think, I think Kevin could make a pretty sound and cogent case from the supply side for rate cuts as well as the trading off of balance sheet for rate cuts. But that's beside the point in a sense because what we really want to get the answer to is what does it mean for broader markets? And here's the fact. Since this war started, we've priced out two rate cuts and we've seen energy prices go up almost $50 from 60 and change to almost 110 today. So 45, 50 bucks. We have seen the stock market rally 4 or 5% in that time period. That's an incredible statement. So we've taken out two rate cuts and we've seen enter the energy complex rise 60% in price and the market hasn't skipped a beat. Imagine where we would be if this energy story had never happened. If Iran never happened, I think we'd be up 10 or 15% for the year, if not more. So I think this, the real story is that we don't need the rate cuts. We've got an incredible momentum, we've got productivity, we've got clarity on the tax side. We've got all sorts of drivers from a business friendly environment that are just making returns on capital, earnings, profits and growth for companies very, very strong. And the fact that we don't have the rate cuts now, you know, it'd be nice to have them. We could probably get a little more out of them. But it's not going to get in the way of this economy. It's not going to get in the way the stock market.
Philippe LeBeau
David.
Carter Braxton Worth
Tim, I agree. We do not need a rate cut and risk assets tell you that and the wealth effect, you know, we'll then take that even further. But we've been having this conversation for the last week or so are equities, right? I mean if you look at rates markets, they're telling you a different story. The equity markets always last to know. I'm just curious. Look, we get what we see in earnings season has been extraordinary and it was expected to be extraordinary. I'm just trying to have you just reconcile that one more time. You think equity markets are making the right call?
Melissa Lee
I do.
David Zervos
And I think they're telling you something even more that, that they're, that one, they don't need the rate cuts. It would be nice to have them but they don't need them. But, but more importantly, if we look at the currency markets and even if we look at the long term interest rates, I mean 10 year note yields are what, up 20 basis points during this whole storyline of the last two months. That's, that's, that's a bad, that's one bad day on a payroll number and the dollar's basically flat. So I think all of your macro indicators are basically suggesting that this is not a major macroeconomic story that's going to get in the way of this stock market. And if anything, all of this makes me even more bullish because if we're able to withstand the 1, 2 punch of the taking out of these rate cuts to actually a little more than 2 since beginning of the year and this $45 rise in oil prices, which doesn't look like it's going away anytime soon, that means there's just so much momentum underlying this market to be able to withstand that, that it's a great storyline for when this all fades back. And when it does, which it eventually will, and we won't be talking about the Strait of Hormuz anymore and oil will come back down and we'll be on to the next major crisis, whatever that is that's going to try to drive stocks down but in the end won't, I think we've just got a lot of, a lot of momentum that's going to take us into a pretty incredible year by the end of the year. So this just makes me so much more positive as we go into the end of 26 or toward the end of 26.
Melissa Lee
David, always good to see you. Thanks.
David Zervos
Yeah, my pleasure.
Melissa Lee
David Servos of Jefferies. Guy, you agree?
Guy Adami
It's hard to argue with that. I mean, because he's right. The markets, it's been impervious to all those things. And you can make an argument you can't do the counterfactual. But if these things didn't happen, where would we pay? So I get it. I am concerned about the bond market. I don't think people are making enough out of it yet. But I think they're going to start to. When you see 10 year yields where they are on the back of again an administration that has been begging for yields to be lower, you look at what's happening globally, they're not going down. And I fear that at a certain point the market starts to pick up on that.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, Jeffrey Gundlach had some interesting things to say in the 3 o' clock hour with Scott. You know, he thinks that again you just said that we're pricing out cuts, right. And if you look at the stock market say look, we got pretty easy financial conditions right in the face of what's going on with energy costs and the like here. But he thinks you're tipping over towards rate hikes. And when you think about that, I mean I don't even think a 25 basis point hike is going to change anything that's going on in the stock market or the economy for that matter. But you will see a drag on economic growth the longer that you see energy prices here. And then if there's any other bottlenecks as it relates to supply chains, then you're going to have inflationary pressures and you're going to be thinking about multiple hikes rather than multiple cuts on the 10 year yield.
Melissa Lee
Carter, are we still within firmly the channel?
Dan Nathan
Yeah, we're just stuck there obviously today. You know it's always tempting to, you know, it's up to maybe here's the time it's kind of do it down but we just, we stuck right. It's been a very benign rate environment. It's one of the things the equity market has liked so much.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, it is not just big tech reporting results and numbers and details out of Ford's latest quarter and how our traders are steering into that auto trade. That's money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. An earnings alert on Qualcomm shares turning sharply higher after being down about 7% immediately after the report they're up 15 and a half, 14 and a half percent right now. The turn coming after the semi company said it is shipping datacenter chips to a HyperScaler. Though the CEO told our Christina parts nebulous, he wouldn't give details on which one until the Investor Day on June 24. It's interesting that we see all of these companies, they get double digit percent increases by just sprinkling in a little data center magic here. We saw this with Texan as well. I mean these bonds have companies right
Carter Braxton Worth
now got a little sexy outfit to wear.
Melissa Lee
You know that's quite a metaphor.
Guy Adami
I mean I won't go there because I'm not really sure what Tim's talking about. But sometimes you can be right for the wrong reasons. And we talked about Qualcomm on this television show earlier in the week and I think collectively we said this is a name that looks interesting. Now the quarter wasn't great. Let's be clear. I think if, if those comments weren't made you'd probably see the stock lower. But you know, sometimes it's better lucky than good. And I think that's we're seeing here in Qualcomm. But I think the momentum continues.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, and XPI which was the end in my Gen I last year, you know I love that game. Yeah, that Stock was up 20 some percent because they said data center 19 times its low single digit percentage of the revenue. I mean this is where you realize things are getting really silly. Forget what's going on memory. Those guys are getting double triple orders and they're beaten and raising. This is not that Texan and XPI now.
Dan Nathan
And this is not that it feels very exhaustive. There are different kinds of gaps. The breakaway gaps, runaway and also exhaustion gaps. You can't all just gap up and find new levels.
Carter Braxton Worth
But you know, I look at some of the headlines in the after hours and you know the CFO is out there talking about how auto is going to grow 50% year on year in
Melissa Lee
Q3 markets are strong.
Carter Braxton Worth
That's incredible. And again if you look at what's going on in the auto world, the tailwind in the secular dynamic for companies like Qualcomm is the car's never been smarter guy.
Guy Adami
Well, you know it's funny about that.
Carter Braxton Worth
The smart was your, was your Camaro smart.
Guy Adami
You're saying that to be derogatory and I admire that. But you know those 6768 Camaros, those muscle cars. As Mel will tell you, beautiful cars. I'm partial to the 67 GTO Melissa before the enduro bumper.
Melissa Lee
Move on. We have a tight show looking car. You notice a lot of news flow here. Another check on the other big tech movers. Amazon just turning positive in the last few minutes. Let's bring in Deepwater managing partner Gene Munster who who has been dialed into all the calls. Jean, good to see you. Thank goodness you're joining us. What's up with Amazon here, turning higher?
Gene Munster
Well, I think they're giving some confidence that revenue growth is going to sustain a little bit better than expected. Just in terms of their ability to capitalize this Agentix search piece, I think that that's helped. They've also been given a little bit more just clarity in terms of what Agent Commerce means. I think that's probably the, the piece on Amazon and I think that that is, that's good. But the bigger picture, we've really learned a meaningful update in terms of what's going on with AI in terms of how early we are. And I think it's been a resounding indication that we still have a long ways to go here. Mel. And if I may just kind of hit, Brian and I and our team have been kind of just plowing through all these, the calls and the data points here. Just kind of articulate or frame in what is important that's happened so far. And this concept around what's going on in, I mean the simple takeaway is we're early in AI and what's going on with the Capex spend. We've seen meta now guiding 93% capex growth. Previously they were at 78%. That's where the street was at for calendar 26. And Google is saying that next year will be up substantially from this year. Of course, the street was looking for 10% growth. That number could be 20 or 30%. That data point right there about Google, what They said about 2027 is probably the only 2027 data point we're going to get. That data point is probably going to be the most impactful takeaway or the most important data point of all the earnings tonight. And specifically it really gives investors a sense what that Capex looks like for the rest of the mega cap. Those companies were expecting about 10% or analysts were expecting about 10% growth for next year. The one liner here, Melissa, is that it looks like Capex for next year, Street's at 10% right now. For the big companies it's probably going to be 25% when things are said and done. Still very early in what's going on in AI.
Melissa Lee
I mean obviously you're on to talk about the big cap tech stocks that are reported tonight, Jean, but to me that points to sort of the picks and shovel side of the business having a definite, I mean for all you can say about how astronomical or exponential parabolic the moves are in some of the memory chips and, and all that. I mean, if you're saying that CapEx is going to increase by that much in 2027, should we expect more for the stocks?
Gene Munster
I think we definitely should. There is going to be a disconnect between the raise in expectations and how these stocks are going to react. It is very much a positive. But we saw this a year ago is at this point a year ago when we were looking at 2026, the street was looking for 15% growth for capex. This is for 2026. It looks like it's going to come in close to 70% which is the similar number as 2025. I mean just remarkable growth this year. But of course a lot of these stocks have done well, but not that well relative to this massive increase we're seeing this year. And of course the reason is that this belief that eventually we're going to have some big deceleration, the law of large numbers are going to catch up. That's not going to go away. That will still dog many of these companies. And so to answer your question, Melissa, yes, a lot of these smaller companies, they're going to be meaningful beneficiaries. We own a lot of them and feel good that those stocks, their e is going to go up as far as the multiple should see a little bit of expansion. But this wall of worry is just going to get kicked to 2028 should
Melissa Lee
matter be punished to the extent that it is being punished for spending money on Capex.
Gene Munster
I don't get it like this. It's just a scratch. There's two kind of issues I think with Meta. One was the CapEx again, 93% growth versus 78 for the street for 2026. But the part that is a mystery to me is that Google talks about their capex being materially higher and the stock really doesn't do much in after hours just, you know, 30 minutes ago. But somehow investors just don't feel that same comfort. Even though Metta has shown, I mean this is remarkable in the summer in June of 2025 or September of 2025. So it wasn't that long ago their business was up. Their advertising business for Meta was up 10%. It has accelerated to 30% here more recently in the 33% I believe in the March quarter. So they've shown that big capex can deliver higher revenue growth rates. And it is a mystery to me. I don't think I missed anything. I don't understand fully why investors seem to have more of a skeptical view. Perhaps because they don't have a cloud business that, you know, the other hyperscalers have that can more directly benefit from some of that capex. That might be the reason behind it.
Melissa Lee
All right, Gene, got to let you go. Thank you. Thank you, Munster. Yeah, we should remind everybody that the Microsoft conference call kicked off, you know, 16 minutes ago. So we're listening very carefully to it for any sort of developments. But the stock is still down 2.7% right now. We've had some time to digest now. How are you feeling?
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, I just get back to Amazon. Google is no question, and we saw the stock turn a little bit. But I just think with Amazon, it's a combination of this was a very clean quarter. It was very clear on the beat us. Very impressive. Their own chip business is growing astronomically. It's a 20 billion run rate. The valuation is inexpensive and as we know, they have the ability to turn on the operating income. It's cheap. It's cheap relative to peers.
Tim Seymour
Yeah.
Guy Adami
And I'll be consistent. I think that's what we said right after we reported. So I think this move to the upside Amazon makes sense. And Gene was a little perplexed by Facebook. I agree with that. I think Facebook, you're buying the weakness and it's now meta as opposed to fb.
Tim Seymour
You know, Google's market cap is greater than that of Apple. I was thinking about that. I mean, I haven't seen that. I mean Apple was like number one forever. And then Nvidia came along and then Microsoft took it for a little bit and now it's Google and it's just interesting to see like the, you know, the changing of the guards here. And you know, Apple to me looks very interesting tomorrow because their capex is going to be up, you know, 5% or something like that sequentially in a year over year. It's like flat ish or something like that. So that's the one. When you think about all this Capex we've talked about, what sort of leverage do they get off what all these guys are building on.
Melissa Lee
Another earnings alert here from Ford shares, the automaker well off highs even after a big earnings beat. Our Philippe is all over that call. He joins us now with the details. Hi, Phil.
Philippe LeBeau
Hi, Melissa. We're about 45 minutes into that call. Let's go over the numbers for the fourth quarter for Ford. $0.66 a share is what the company earned in the first quarter. We are not doing a comparison because we're pretty certain that the analysts were not factoring in a Key component of that, $0.66, which we'll explain in a second. The revenue came in 39.82 billion versus 38.82 billion was the estimate. Here's the component the analysts weren't factoring in. Ford is factoring into its first quarter results and expected $1.3 billion in tariff relief. As they apply to that to the government program for a refund, they're not putting that in the free cash flow because they're not sure when that'll actually happen. In terms of the results before for the three divisions at Ford, there you see what we saw from the traditional ice model business at 1.94 billion, commercial 1.7 billion. And EVs continue to lose money. They're going to lose about four to five billion dollars in EVs or four to four and a half billion dollars this year. Then there's the guidance. And this is getting a fair number of questions on the conference call. They're going to be seeing an increase in their commodity costs, another $1 billion. Most of this because of aluminum. The Novellas plant is expected to come back online. In fact, they're going to be doing a firing up of the hot mill there in May. That will help as they move through the year. Still, there's some shortages of aluminum around the world. For 26, they have increased their profit from 8 to 10 billion up to 8 and a half to 10 and a half billion with free cash flow of 5 to 6 billion dollars. One last thing, they are reiterating that their next generation EVs, Melissa, are still on track to come out next year. Melissa, I'll send it back to you, Phil.
Melissa Lee
Thanks. Phil LeBeau, what do you make of this particularly, you know, in comparison to gm, which we got yesterday?
Carter Braxton Worth
Well, I think they're talking more about commodity costs than GM did. And that's interesting because it's hard to believe it's not something that's going to hit everyone. I do think the free cash flow is way impressive. I do think that we knew about this tax benefit because GM's was bigger. I think we know at eight times forward it's not dirt cheap relative to itself, but it's attractive. I think we believe this company is on the right path to being run. I still think GM is, is the buy of the two.
Melissa Lee
Would you rather chart version?
Dan Nathan
They're probably pretty darn similar. For me, both are in the pair of twos category. So I wouldn't say there's better things to do.
Carter Braxton Worth
So neither a pair of neither two Pairs of twos.
Guy Adami
Tim made fun of me which is his want to do but specifically about a 40 year chart that I asked for. Yes, well let's pull up a 40 year chart of Ford because if you go back 40 years, Tim Seymour people do. Thank you Carter. Thank you Carter. You will notice Melissa Lee, it's the same price legit. The same price so adjusted for inflation
Dan Nathan
is about 95% of all you need
Guy Adami
to know the more you know.
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, a slew of big movers in today's regular session catching our eyes to the headlines on Bloom Energy, intel and more. More fast money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. There were a bunch of stock movers outside the Mag 7 that captured our attention today. Bloom Energy having its best day since November 2024 up over 27% after beating earnings expectations and raising guidance. That stock has doubled just this month. Intel also continuing its rally. Those shares up 12% today, setting another all time high. Stock has rallied more than 40% since reporting earnings just last Thursday. And on the downside, GE Health Care dropping 13% after missing estimates and cutting full year guidance this morning. Carter, I think the key here, well the moves higher can they continue?
Dan Nathan
I know it's quite with a sad day but again I know it's hard to repeat but it is such a testament to respecting price meaning think about it, be was strong and it got stronger. Health care is weak and it got weaker. Momentum, relative strength, price, volume, correlation, these are key parts of making good decisions when it comes to investing. But to your question, the extended ones, the sand things, it's quite remarkable all things come to an end. Hard to time that we know what happened to silver, we know what happened to bitcoin and it's this too will end. But right now the momentum is hard to fight.
Guy Adami
Smart thing to say in Bloom is to pull the ripcord here. But I got to tell you, given their guidance and given their EPS growth, the valuation, I mean it's not ridiculous. It's expensive but not ridiculous given their growth. So traded 18 million shares today typically trades 10. I don't think you've seen the buy side capitulation yet.
Carter Braxton Worth
You know with intel they're also doing some other interesting things on the capital market side. They filed a shelf, they're raising six and a half billion in debt. It's an interesting time for them to be going to market and buttressing this balance sheet.
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades, Final trade time.
Carter Braxton Worth
Jimbo, how about that Amazon? I think you want to stay in this one, don't be knocked off course. Clean beat Carter Braxton Worth Hershey's earnings tomorrow. I like it.
Tim Seymour
Danny Meta I'm with Carter, not buying the weekends guy.
Guy Adami
Our senior executive producer Sandy Cannell, who's listening right now. Very happy about that Nick performance last night. It feels as if, Tim, they have figured it out. I like Walmart, by the way. In case anybody cares. They figured it out, Mel. They figured it out.
Melissa Lee
Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Mad money. June Kramer starts right now.
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On this episode of Fast Money, Melissa Lee and the panel tackle an eventful earnings day featuring four of the "Mag 7" megacap tech companies—Alphabet (Google), Meta (Facebook), Amazon, and Microsoft—each releasing quarterly results and updating massive capital spending plans, largely driven by AI infrastructure. The conversation digs into the implications for the broader market, analyzes sector momentum, and contrasts investor reactions to tech earnings surprises. The episode also covers Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair, key moves in consumer and auto stocks (notably Chipotle and Ford), and closes with macro perspectives from Jefferies' David Zervos.
"The cloud business growing 60% year over year… they are taking market share."
— Tim Seymour on Alphabet’s AI surge (03:50)
"No discernible immediate opportunity… waiting for the flop."
— Dan Nathan on Microsoft’s ‘pair of twos’ scenario (17:45)
"We’ve priced out two rate cuts… energy prices are up 60%, yet the market hasn’t skipped a beat."
— David Zervos, Jefferies (30:47)
"It is a mystery to me why Meta’s punished more than others for ramping Capex... they've delivered."
— Gene Munster (40:53)
"Operating margins were 13.1%. Street was at 11.7%. They can really turn the knob."
— Guy Adami on Amazon (12:05)
"A stock that's been lagging… bearish price-volume correlation."
— Dan Nathan on Meta (07:59)
For further details or specific investing insights, visit fastmoney.cnbc.com.