CNBC "Fast Money" Podcast Summary

Episode: Alphabet Reports Results… And Pharma Stocks Diverge In Weight Loss Drug Race
Date: February 4, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Guy Adami, Bono, Carter Worth
Special Guests: Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Jared Holtz (Mizuho)

Episode Overview

This episode dissects a packed day of earnings and market moves, leading with a deep dive into Alphabet’s (Google) impressive quarterly results and soaring capital expenditures, setting off broad implications for Big Tech, semiconductors, and software. The roundtable also explores a sharp divergence in the fortunes of weight loss drug giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, and examines falling crypto and chip stocks, closing with actionable insights on other earnings movers like Qualcomm, as well as individual stock picks for the current market.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

Alphabet’s Blowout Results & AI-Fueled Spending Surge

Alphabet Q4 Earnings Recap

• Revenue: First-ever $400B+ revenue quarter for Alphabet.
• CapEx: Alphabet forecasts up to $185B in capital spending for 2026, nearly doubling 2025 and topping Microsoft’s $150B annualized run rate.
  (MacKenzie Sagalos, 02:04)
• AI & Cloud: Google Cloud's growth surges 48% y/y, affirming Google’s “underdog” momentum in the cloud wars.
• Apple Partnership: CEO Sundar Pichai touts Gemini powering Apple’s Siri across 2.5B devices, with Google now Apple’s preferred cloud provider—a move boosting both stocks in after hours.
• Hardware Partners: Broadcom jumps ~6% after landing large orders for Google’s custom AI chips (TPUs).

Desk Reaction: Valuation, Confidence, and CapEx — plus a note of caution

• Guy Adami (03:48):
  “A very strong quarter… The CapEx guide is clear, not scaring anybody… But the problem now is, back then you could make a very compelling valuation case, now, not as much so at 31 times [earnings]. Valuation is probably priced almost to perfection.”
• Tim Seymour (04:24):
  “That 30% growth against a 30% multiple… gets you to a really attractive PEG ratio. That cloud growth number is shocking at 47%. At a time when the cloud competition is heating up, I love to see that.”
• Carter Worth (06:05):
  “But the market is saying it’s come too far, it’s full. I would sell calls against it or trim my longs.”

Is Alphabet’s AI and Cloud Investment a Rising Tide for Tech?

• Panel: While the heavy CapEx is a bullish sign for hardware suppliers (Nvidia, Broadcom), debate remains over software market risk.
  • Sellers (Guy, Carter): Trim profits, potentially “too much, too fast.”
  • Holders/Bulls (Tim): Attractive PEG, robust core business, but reward for restraint might be higher short-term.

Guest Segment: Gene Munster on Alphabet’s AI & the Broader Trade

• Jean Munster (09:37):
  “This capex guide was remarkable. 100% growth… it speaks to the breadth and how early we are in AI. The talk that we’re at the cusp of AI slowing down is just totally off base.”
• Munster highlights flywheel effects for cloud business, Gemini AI advancements, and reiterates the huge size of new infrastructure bets:
  “Going into the print, the Street was looking for 30% CapEx growth for Google, but they just guided to 108%.”
• Software Impact:
  “A good read through for the infrastructure, and a negative read through for the software companies.” (11:09)
• On Microsoft comparison:
  Google’s Cloud growing faster and improving underlying AI, “using Gemini a lot more than Microsoft products as well.” (12:21)

Desk Takeaways

• Alphabet’s CapEx is a win for AI infrastructure, but risk of overvaluation and potential software industry shakeout persists.
• Key Quotes:
  • "Selling calls and trimming a position that's run a lot is what I was doing" — Tim Seymour (07:17)
  • "On a relative basis... if you compare that to what's been happening within the space, I think it gives you a more complete picture." — Bono (08:20)

Tech Market Fragmentation: Hardware Soaring, Software Suffering

Software Slide vs. Semi Strength

• Software ETF IGV falls for seven days straight (13:33), while semis outperform.
• Jensen Huang (Nvidia) Soundbite: Argues the sell-off in software is "illogical", likens AI to a better screwdriver for existing software—he’s defending, but real disruption is “somewhere in the middle.” (13:52–14:31)
• Bono: "There will be some AI disruption at the margins, but... the large enterprise stack will persist." (14:31)

Chartist View: Carter Worth's Call for Mean Reversion

• Carter Worth (15:16):
  “Semis have tripled the performance of [software]... The play here actually is to bet against semis... play it for mean reversion.”
• Tim & Guy see some near-term bounce potential in software, but much depends on whether semis really roll over.

Crypto Rout & Tech Correlation

• Bitcoin: Hits $72,000 (lowest since Nov 2024), worst week since Nov 2022.
  Proxy stocks (MicroStrategy, Robinhood, Coinbase) tank alongside.
• Guy Adami (21:20):
  "The overlap between the crypto investor and the tech investor is probably pretty large and you'd start to see some carnage… but I don't think the crypto sell off is over by any stretch."
• Bono:
  "Strategy is going to underperform Bitcoin on the downside… it's really a matter of do you want leverage to the upside." (22:42)
• Carter Worth:
  "Momentum is a powerful force both on the way up and on the way down… [it's] in the wrong direction." (23:19)

Qualcomm Earnings Disappoint: Guidance Sags Despite Beats

• Report & Exec Comments:
  • Revenue and EPS beat, but guidance "100% related to memory" supply constraints and high prices. (Christine, 25:59)
  • Premium handset market can "absorb higher memory prices," but China/lower tier more impacted.
  • CEO expects a return to growth when supply normalizes, but admits uncertainty.
• Desk Analysis:
  • Tim: Worries about Apple/Samsung moving in-house ("biggest problem").
  • Carter: "It's the same price it was five years ago… What a waste of time." (29:11)
  • Bono: No major tailwinds, guide is concerning, Android growth won’t offset Apple/Samsung loss.

Pharma: Eli Lilly Surges, Novo Nordisk Tanks in Weight Loss Drug Race

Eli Lilly (LLY):

• Stock jumps 10%: "Blowing past quarterly estimates thanks to soaring demand for its weight loss drugs." (30:27)
• Forecasts up to 27% growth this year.

Novo Nordisk (NVO):

• Stock tumbles 6% after –20% in two days: Guides sales to fall 5–13%.
• Jared Holtz (Mizuho) unpacks the divergence:
  • “It’s kind of amazing… the data and the products don’t seem that dissimilar, but the stocks have just taken completely different paths.” (32:08)
  • Novo cautious on Medicare/Medicaid coverage timeline, and IRA pricing effect disadvantageous vs. Lilly.
  • "It seems like the market is telling us they would be better off if they had never gotten into [the GLP-1 weight loss drug] business." (33:29)
• Lilly: More diversified pipeline, better positioned beyond weight loss.
• Panel: Novo needs M&A to diversify, looks late to the game.
• Tim: “They have no street cred with the investor community… everything that seems to be wrong with them is communication.” (37:21)
• Carter: “Reduce your exposure or get out.” (38:03)

Uber Disappoints: Mixed Results, Weak Guidance

• Shares Down 5%: Despite strong bookings and record users, misses on earnings; guidance soft. (41:12)
• Bono: Operating expenses, autonomous vehicle focus (with increased Tesla/Waymo competition) concerns.
• Tim: Not profitable enough—investor patience thin.

Hot and Cold Stocks: Cisco, PNC, Deere, Netflix

Highs

• Cisco: “Software business is a high margin business… I think it’s going higher.” — Tim Seymour (42:34)
• PNC: Attractive net interest margin and deposit growth—“probably getting into overbought territory.” — Bono
• Deere: Guy wouldn’t buy up here after recent run.

Lows

• Netflix: Consensus bull call from the desk—now looks like a buying opportunity.
  • Tim: "I can own Netflix with a lot of comfort here. I’m not sure how much the overhang... will continue."
  • Carter: "It’s a mature, deliberate eight, nine month decline. This is exactly where you should get some sort of counter trend." (45:40)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Guy Adami on Alphabet:
  “Very strong quarter… rumors of the death of Google 6, 7 months ago were obviously exaggerated, greatly exaggerated.” (03:48)
• Jean Munster on AI:
  "The talk that we're at the cusp of AI slowing down is just totally off base.” (09:37)
• Jensen Huang soundbite (Nvidia):
  “If you're going to use a screwdriver, are you going to use a screwdriver, or are you going to invent a new screwdriver? You're just going to use it better based on the new tools out there.” (14:15 paraphrased by Melissa Lee)
• Carter Worth:
  "Momentum is a powerful force both on the way up and on the way down." (23:19)
• Jared Holtz (Novo/Lilly):
  “The stock would fare better if they had never gotten into this [weight loss] business—that’s what the market is telling us.” (33:29)
• On Netflix:
  "You’re dunking down 41%. One thing if you dropped in one day, you’d say this is a mature, deliberate eight, nine month decline. This is exactly where you should get some sort of counter trend." — Carter Worth (45:40)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment & Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------|------------| | Alphabet Earnings / CapEx | 02:04–07:17| | Analyst/Trader Roundtable | 03:40–07:35| | Gene Munster (AI Trade) | 09:27–13:03| | Tech Market: Software vs. Semis | 13:33–16:42| | Chart Analysis (Carter Worth) | 15:16–16:42| | Crypto Market Decline | 20:19–23:51| | Qualcomm Earnings | 25:59–29:59| | Pharma: Eli Lilly vs. Novo Nordisk | 30:27–38:43| | Uber Results | 41:12–42:06| | Market Highs: Cisco, PNC, Deere | 42:34–44:11| | Market Lows: Netflix (Buy Case) | 44:21–45:54| | Final Trades | 46:13–46:56|

Actionable Takeaways

• Tech: Alphabet’s CapEx and AI push is a bullish signal for hardware/infrastructure plays but could spell ongoing pain for software—mean reversion may be setting up.
• Pharma: Confidence heavily favors Lilly over Novo as divergence in growth, pricing, and pipeline clarity persists.
• Crypto: More pain likely—watch “momentum unwind” in high-multiple tech and crypto proxies.
• Single Stocks: Cisco and Netflix get the green light as buys on desk consensus; caution urged on Qualcomm and Deere at highs; PNC needs careful entry.

This episode delivers a nuanced, actionable look at tech and healthcare through the lens of major earnings, capital spending, and competitive positioning—offering investors both tactical and big-picture perspectives as sector leaders diverge sharply.