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CNBC's "Fast Money"
Amazon’s Quarterly Revenue Beats Out Walmart… And Palantir’s Next Move 02/06/25
00:43:31
Amazon reporting results, with quarterly revenue beating out Walmart for the first time ever. The details from the company’s quarter, and why one portfolio manager says it’s not just packages Amazon is delivering, it’s the future of e-commerce. Plus Palantir’s record run continues, as shares continue to surge this week. How the options pits are positioning on the name, and why one analyst isn’t buying all the hype. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
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- [00:22]
Guy Adami
We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.
- [00:26]
Melissa Lee
Go to CNBCmakeit.com AI and register now.
- [00:33]
Guy Adami
Live in the Nasdaq marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Another earnings bonanza tonight. Amazon Whipsawing after hours and Pinterest hitting six month highs. The headlines behind all the moves and more. And a Palantir pop. The stock hitting another record today and up nearly 35% this week. How to make sense of this unseemingly unstoppable stock? What the options market is saying about what is next. Plus Eli Lilly jumps even as its GLP1 drugs disappoint coach parent Tapestry bags an all time high of its own. And what Qualcomm Struggles could say about the future for Apple. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Carter work, Karen Feitaman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with a volatile move in Amazon after earnings. The tech giant beating top and bottom line estimates, posting cloud unit growth in line with estimates. But a weak sales forecast for Q1 is weighing on shares in the after hours. The conference call kicking off moments ago. Sales. CNBC's Kate Rooney's got more Kate.
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Kate Rooney
Mel so Amazon did beat for the quarter on top and bottom line as you mentioned. But underwhelming guidance and then this foreign exchange impact causing what we saw that knee jerk reaction in shares after hours. The initial drop was around 5%. It has pared back some of those losses. Amazon's cloud growth rate was really the key item investors were watching. It was right in line with the street's estimate of 19%. But if you look at the pure US revenue number for the quarter did come up just a hair short of estimates at $28.8 billion. On guidance, Amazon's Q1 revenue range was light. Same thing with operating income. And the company clarifying in the press release saying it's a foreign exchange impact here does see a potential dollar impact and quote anticipates an unusually large unfavorable impact of approximately $2.1 billion from affects. They also call it a leap Year effect from last year. Advertising did miss estimates but the retail side of the business showing a lot of strength in the quarter thanks to holiday sales. Online sales beat 75.56 billion and E Commerce margins which are under this North America segment were 8% that was up from 5.9% in the prior quarter. CEO Andy Jassy on the conference call kicking things off now. Mel, we are waiting for that Capex number. Any sort of color around spending and then comments on tariffs potentially as well. Back to you.
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Guy Adami
A lot to come on that call Kate, thank you. Kate Rooney. Karen, you're deciphering the quarter. What do you make of it?
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Karen Finerman
Yeah, so I mean Kate touched on really the high points. I mean retail is good, that North America margin was great. But I think the story really here is NWC and in line. Right in line ish is just not quite good enough right here to me the, the miss whatever is being priced in for the guidance rather being weak that that was a miss was beat but I don't really give that much credence at all. They're not great at forecasting and I don't think they really care about forecasting.
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Guy Adami
And who wants to be a hero and give a strong forecast at the beginning of the year when the volatile year. Right, right. Tariffs are unknown and things are.
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Karen Finerman
The leap year thing is just ridiculous. I mean everybody's like surprised by leap.
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Melissa Lee
If you were born on February 29, it's not ridiculous.
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Karen Finerman
It's not ridiculous if that's your one birthday.
- [03:37]
Melissa Lee
That's what I mean.
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Karen Finerman
You're a company that wants to give guidance.
- [03:40]
Melissa Lee
That's what you mean.
- [03:41]
Guy Adami
And you're like.
- [03:45]
Melissa Lee
I think the setup was not too different than Alphabet. Right. When you think about it, trading at an all time high rallied 10% right into the print. It was down a little bit in sympathy when Google was down 8% yesterday. But it's like the same thing that happened, you know, if you think about Azure, if you think about Google Cloud, they came in like basically in line but it wasn't good enough, you know and I kind of disagree a little bit Karen, on that operating income guidance that they gave, you know the consensus was 18.2 billion. They guided to 16 or 14 to 18, so the midpoint is 16. That's down like 11% or so, you know and what I think is going on here, these companies have invested so much in the Capex and this company, they spent $75 billion last year. They said it's going to be higher. That's not too different than what we heard from Microsoft and Google and Metta. But again I'm surprised the stock's not down more to be frank. Yeah, because I mean like look where we are in the street. Look at how a lot of these names are also they're seeing that like the fever break a little bit. So let's see how this thing trades tomorrow. I suspect it trades lower.
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Guy Adami
Call me Pollyanna, but when, when the US numbers came in in line I thought oh well, maybe it would actually catch a bid because there is relief after Microsoft and after Alphabet there is relief that they were able to report an in line for, for cloud.
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Dan Nathan
I so much like Melissa better than Pollyanna.
- [04:58]
Guy Adami
I know completely different people.
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Dan Nathan
You know, operating margins to me, 11.3% good for them. I mean year over year improvement and obviously better than she was looking for. The capex number is probably scaring people. I'm sure that people pouring through this now, I think it's up like almost 30% higher than the street was looking for and it's up 91% year over year which is either really good or really bad. I'm sure Nvidia is probably higher on the back of this. I would imagine we'll see if that lasts. But I'm sort of in between Dan and Karen. Like I think it's fine. Like we've seen sell offs on the back of Amazon quarters before that a week and a half or so later get bought up. So I think that's, we're probably in the midst of now.
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Carter Worth
Yeah, I'm kind of in the fine category. Not exciting but I think it's important to note this that Amazon's performance to the market, which is important to the qs, which is important to the XL Y, to the entire consumer discretionary sector, all peaked during COVID Right. So Amazon has been with such a winner of course for the reasons everyone is ordering package staying at home. Its relative performance stands to this day almost four years ago. So the question is, does it have catch up potential with its sector consumer aggression with the cues with the market? Ultimately I think yes. And I would say the weakness is something to take advantage of.
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Guy Adami
Hmm.
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Karen Finerman
Just one thing about the guidance, the operating margin guidance that is pretty wide considering the revenue guidance. So it's just very vague.
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Guy Adami
Right.
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Karen Finerman
So I really don't think we should.
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Guy Adami
Just discount it entirely.
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Karen Finerman
Yes.
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Guy Adami
Yeah. If the capex number comes in in line with what the street is expecting for 25, which is $85 billion which would be a step up from the 75 expected for the total of 24. Is that going to be a positive?
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Melissa Lee
What depends. I mean, listen, Amazon, you don't hear them about building the sort of foundation model that some of their competitors, right? So they're really building an infrastructure for us. So they have the capacity to serve a lot of those clients, right. So they partnered with companies like Anthropic that have the cloud. Claude, excuse me, Claude. In the cloud, you know that model there, they've invested $8 billion in that. So their infrastructure build I think is a little different than let's say Google that has Gemini and they want to support that and then obviously Microsoft with their open air relationship. So again, I just don't think this as interesting. Think about their cloud growth was what, 19%? And you know, Google and Microsoft got punished for coming in a little below that $30 billion number. So I don't know. They have market share issues here too. I think those other names have kind of, kind of nipped at the, at their butt a little bit.
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Dan Nathan
So that sounds, but, but I don't.
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Melissa Lee
Know.
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Dan Nathan
You know, affects impact. We're hearing it more and more and they actually made a point of it in their guide to talk about the potential, the outsized impact of foreign exchange, which is, I think again we had Caleb on the other night and he talked about that was something that's crept into the vernacular. So again, I don't think there's anything to run away from. We've seen sell offs before post earnings with Amazon. If you go back and look at a chart, you'll see a number over the last year and a half. And I just think this is sort of that, you know, middle of the road type of thing we've seen before with them.
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Guy Adami
All right, for more on Amazon's results, let's bring in Hero. Price is Tony Wong. He's a portfolio manager of the firm's science and tech fund which counts Amazon as one of its top holdings. Tony, welcome to Fast Money.
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Tony Wong
Thank you.
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Guy Adami
What's your take of Amazon's quarter and how does it stack up to some of its competitors, so to speak, in large cap tech?
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Tony Wong
Yeah, well I think it's a really interesting position that Amazon is in. If you kind of look over the long term, there's a few things that are really going well for the company. One is that they have a lot of infrastructure through regionalization and if you look at the retail margins, I think over the multi year they can go up a lot higher as they essentially like fill in that capacity that they built during COVID and then I think A second one is, you know, also their AWS cloud. I mean it's still, you know, growing at 19% and over the long term should be a nice compounder, especially when we look at what's going on. Lower cost models that could proliferate and drive more upside and sustainability. And then I think third is that you've got like really nice advertising business on prime that continues to grow nicely and then also be very margin accretive. So there's multiple drivers here. And then on top of that you think about kind of the way that they are positioned with robotics. That's I think could be a new productivity boom. And you know, that cost deliver, driving that down and passing it on to the customers, you know, is what I think is really exciting over the long term.
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Melissa Lee
Hey Tony. So Amazon's not a name that you hear like the way you do with OpenAI and chat, CBT or you know, some of the other competitors. When you think about Olympus and Nova, what they've been building versus their relationship with Anthropic, how do you see that playing out? Do you see them as a bit of an underdog, building their own models?
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Tony Wong
Yeah, well, I think that there's a lot of different cross currencies like do you need to own the frontier model, do you need to build it, do you open source it, do you have it more close? And you know, I think it's still a little bit tbd. What is the best strategy? But I kind of still come back to that. If you have, you know, scale, if you have compute, you have expertise, you have the apps. I do think that is like kind of a good recipe to go in here with. And you know, Amazon is kind of playing their own kind of E commerce play here that they dominate. So I kind of think about it, perhaps you don't need to own it to really benefit from it. Especially you have other competitive advantages that you can drive roi. That's not a super competitive contested space.
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Karen Finerman
It turned it's Karen, thanks for being on tonight. So it sounds like you like the stock. What's your price target and sort of how do you get there among the pieces?
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Tony Wong
Yeah, well, I mean I think that long term this one has been a really nice compounder. You look at, you know, the very different various businesses, it's hard to find this kind of growth at this kind of scale. And I think that, you know, one thing is that margins continue to go up and there probably is a long term progression there. So you know, I think that, you know, we look at science and Technology find like you know, above market revenue growth, accretive margins over the multi year and kind of great competitive advantages that can sustain high improving returns. And you know, I think part of what Amazon like really attracts attract me to the story. There are multiple ways that, that you can win here and they are well positioned for like kind of a new productivity boom. You know, when it happens.
- [11:33]
Guy Adami
We're just showing your top eight portfolio holdings Tony, and they are the biggest cap tech stocks out there basically almost in order. And I'm wondering what is your favorite pick at this point? What's your, what's your favorite stock given we've seen most of the quarters?
- [11:47]
Tony Wong
Well, I think that the portfolio is you know, filled with I would say various groups of large kind of stable compounders that are kind of the bread and butter of the portfolio. And then there's also more emerging tech players that I think can have like significant outsized impact. And so we looked at like having a risk adjusted portfolio. We're not going to be you know, swinging for the fences every year. We look to outperform every year and capture good upside and downside. But when I look at the themes that kind of are interesting to me, I think that we are seeing AI switch to kind of the app layer. When you think about what's going on with you know, Palantir recently, that's been a really kind of remarkable move and does I kind of reshape the software landscape? You know that's one and I think like media and entertainment, like there's, there's a really nice industry structures going on there, like pretty attractive stories where margins continue to improve and after like some really intense competition, you know, areas like where Netflix and Spotify play are pretty interesting for, for more stable returns. So you know, I think that our framework is largely buying, you know, quality companies that are improving and have a multi year story to them.
- [13:01]
Guy Adami
Tony, great to have you with us. Thank you. Tony Wong of T Rowe. What do you want to know from the call which is ongoing spend is important?
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Dan Nathan
I think the spend is really important. I mean I would be curious as you know the margin improvement I think is really important as well. But there's clearly you know again this sort of like a Facebook story almost margin improvement in a meaningful way on the backdrop against maybe things seemingly slowing down on the EPS and the revenue front by the way, which is fine. I mean given the choice between the two, I'd love to see the margin improvement. That's what I'd be focused on.
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Guy Adami
Well, you've got Some breaking news now on data central to some economic reports. Steve Liesman's got the details here. Steve.
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Steve Liesman
Melissa, yes, CNBC has learned that many economic Data sets from census.gov are now not available to the public census.gov website. When you call up normal data sets like how many people live in the country, population estimate says how many access to the data is, quote, forbidden. Some data experts have found a workaround for some of these data sets, including going to another website, data.census.gov, but it's not all there and not all easy to do. Data normally downloaded by economists is just not there, according to several sources we've talked to. For example, Maureen Haver at Haver analytics, who provides data to cnbc, says my staff tried numerous economic releases and we could not access them from through census.gov Mike Horrigan, President of the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, says when was the last time that Census just stopped publishing data? That just doesn't happen. It suggests that there may be internal pressures not to publish data that we rely on and we need to figure out if that's true. It is unclear if this census data is a technical problem or part of a larger federal data purge that we've seen in things like health care and and other areas of the government. We emailed the Census Bureau. We called them. They could not be reached for comment in the last several hours. Melissa, just very quickly, Census does provide data for the household survey that the BLS releases tomorrow. I have no indication that there will be any problem with that data tomorrow, but obviously economists are concerned about this data and it is used widely throughout the economy. Another bit of data that's not available is Tiger mapping, data that's used widely in mapping programs like Google and all sorts of things. Those files are also unavailable at this time. We understand.
- [15:28]
Guy Adami
All right, Steve, do you know if there are that this data is unavailable or if it has been deleted?
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Steve Liesman
I do not know that. I know that when you go to access these files it says forbidden. I do know that many people have archived this data, Melissa, so it won't be unavailable forever, but from the government website, census.gov it could not be accessed by us and several data experts we've worked with over the past couple hours to confirm this story.
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Guy Adami
All right, Steve, thank you. Steve Liesman, and I know that a lot of doctors overnight have been desperately trying to download data from the FDA websites and from various health and human services websites because that data has also been removed from sites. This is data that is widely used in scientific research so there are a lot of people out there very concerned about not having access to this normal data they would have access to in order to further scientific discovery.
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Dan Nathan
Right. And without being political at all. I think that's just one more sort of reason why volatility should be coming back in this market in a somewhat meaningful way. I mean, it's anecdotal, I get it, but it's just part of a pastiche we've been talking about.
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Guy Adami
All right. Meantime, speaking of volatility, the Treasury Bond tracking TLT ETF has been steadily climbing since hitting a 52 week low last month. That ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. The TLT move guy was one that you flagged earlier today?
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Dan Nathan
Yeah, I think so. And Carter would love this one. I mean, if you go back to September of last year when it traded one to one, the TLT has been in this pretty precipitous downtrend. The second point was in December. The third point was made today. So this downtrend is still intact. Now we obviously seen a sell off in yields down to, you know, 440ish or so. The question is, is this the third point of a downtrend that will continue? I think it will. Which means, I think yields are going higher or are we about to break out on the upside for tlt, which means yields go lower. We're going to know a lot more in about what, 13 or 14 or so hours when we get the jobs number. A hot job number to me suggests you could see a meaningful sell off in tlt, which is what I'm expecting, and see yields go markedly higher.
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Carter Worth
Yeah, it's such a, it's such a big subject and yet it keeps being maybe the subject that is not so big in the sense that rates are not too high, not too low. It's kind of Goldilocks. But it is important to say that the end of Q3, 2022, we were at 435 and here we are almost three years later, 445. Not much has happened.
- [17:54]
Karen Finerman
I am short, TLT. I am short. But for just the reason you said.
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Dan Nathan
Good, Karen. Trading the trend. I love that.
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Guy Adami
All right, coming up, more after hours earnings action. Shares of Pinterest moving on the back of its results. The details and numbers from the quarter next and Eli Lilly jumping after results this morning. What the pharma giant had to say about its weight loss drugs and the latest on its next generation medications. When fast money returns.
- [18:23]
Melissa Lee
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- [18:54]
Guy Adami
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- [18:56]
David Reisinger
This world turning and behind every one of these companies is a partner helping.
- [19:00]
Melissa Lee
To keep it all moving.
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Guy Adami
It's why the local flower shop and.
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David Reisinger
Your favorite pizza joint, the startup and.
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Melissa Lee
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Guy Adami
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Melissa Lee
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- [19:25]
Dan Nathan
What's at stake when administrations change?
- [19:27]
Melissa Lee
From the first 100 days and beyond.
- [19:30]
Dan Nathan
EY brings insights on the issues that.
- [19:33]
Steve Liesman
Matter executive orders, regulation of AI, the.
- [19:36]
Dan Nathan
Fate of billions in tax credit, global.
- [19:38]
Melissa Lee
Trade and workforce stability. No matter the policy shifts, EY helps business and government leaders remain resilient and seize dynamic growth eye navigate the geopolitical and economic landscape with confidence.
- [19:57]
Guy Adami
Welcome back to Fast Money. Pinterest spiking after hours following a Q4 earnings report that showed better than expected revenue. CNBC's Julie Borson's got the details. Hey Julia, that call is going on right now. Pinterest showing its focus on shop ability, AI and direct response ads paying off revenue, revenue guidance and user growth all topping expectations. On the earnings call, CEO Bill Ready touting the success of the performance plus AI tools driving advertiser efficiencies and a record number of clicks during the holiday season, driving the fourth quarter to its first $1 billion revenue quarter. Now this year, Ready says they will double down on their initiatives, especially leveraging AI to drive more personalized experiences for users and increasing the shop ability of the platform. Now in Q and A going on right now, they're talking a lot about the growth outside of the US Strength in Europe, particularly around retail advertising, and also just the massive growth rate internationally beyond Europe and the us. So we're going to be talking all this and more with Pinterest CEO Bill Ready. We have an exclusive interview with him coming up tomorrow at 10:45am Eastern. Back over to you. All right, Julia, thank you. Julie Boorstin.
- [21:12]
Melissa Lee
Dan yeah, good quarter, good guidance. That's not something we've seen a whole heck of a lot. Obviously we did from Metta, but you know, when they talk about growth overseas or specifically in Europe, the average revenue per user here that raised was up 9% year over year is $9. In Europe, it's a $38. So it's growing at 12%. That's fine. But 80% of the revenues come from here in the U.S. so I think doubling down on the U.S. makes a lot of sense. It's much higher margin business. So to me, great balance sheet. The stock's trading up. I think it's been in this trading range. I think a lot of people see an opportunity for a bright spot in big tech, which has kind of been pretty mediocre over the last couple of weeks. At least the results in the guidance.
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Guy Adami
Yeah, the expectation was that first quarter comps are going to be very difficult. So for them to come in with better than expected guide. Sigh of relief here.
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Dan Nathan
Agreed. And monthly average users up 11% year over year. I think people are excited. Now the question is, do you chase this move, which is up, I think $6 or so in the after hours? And I say, you know what? I actually think you do. I mean, last summer was cataclysmic, the move we saw to the downside, but we held 30 like four or five times. I think we could be getting set to change trade to the levels that we saw last June, July, which I think was about 44 and a half. 45.
- [22:21]
Carter Worth
Well, that's exactly right. So last summer it plunged on its earnings, dropping from 40 to almost 30. And we've, we're retracing that now. It's, I would characterize, a rally to a difficult level. So this is where overhead supply comes into play. But there's also this. This was a $90 stock, right. Two or three years ago and it's trading at 39. It's been a tough investment in general for anyone who's been engaged.
- [22:43]
Karen Finerman
I've always said I'd rather be in matter. I mean, it's just, it's very similar. So much bigger, much better valuation. Only one thing. This could theoretically be acquired. Matter realistically. Could not.
- [22:54]
Guy Adami
Right? Sure. A lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [22:59]
Melissa Lee
Weighty issues for Eli Lilly. What the company had to say about its blockbuster drugs and how it's moving up the timeline for its next gen treatments. What all that could do for the stock. Plus, Palantir's record run continues. Why the options market could be pointing to even more gains ahead. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. The $150 billion pet industry is booming as people absolutely love their dogs. If you're looking for a solid investment, Dogtopia is the name to know. With 300 locations across North America, it's the largest, leading and fastest growing pet franchise offering a recurring revenue membership model. Dogtopia offers safe, open play, dog daycare, boarding and spa services. Want a recession resistant franchise? Check out Dogtopia because every dog and dog parent deserve it. Go to dogtopia.com to learn more.
- [24:01]
Dan Nathan
What's at stake when administrations change?
- [24:03]
Melissa Lee
From the first 100 days and beyond.
- [24:06]
Dan Nathan
EY brings insights on the issues that matter.
- [24:09]
Steve Liesman
Executive orders, regulation of AI, the fate.
- [24:12]
Melissa Lee
Of billions in tax credit, global trade and workforce stability. No matter the policy shifts, EY helps business and government leaders remain resilient and seize dynamic growth. EY navigate the geopolitical and economic landscape with confidence.
- [24:30]
Guy Adami
Welcome back to Fast Money. Eli lilly jumping over 3% after reporting an earnings beat in guidance that came in in line with investor expectations. Revenue for the December quarter did fall short though, with sales of weight loss drugs Manjaro and Zepbound missing estimates for the second straight quarter. Still, the company giving a bullish outlook for its obesity pipeline, moving up the timeline for data on its next gen injectable retatrutide. For more, let's bring in Leering Partners Senior Managing Director David Reisinger. David, great to have you with us. It's curious because, you know, they did give preliminary results back in January, so I, you know, nothing was really too much of a surprise. But in terms of the pipeline, what are you most excited about here in the pipeline? Is it the oral because we're going to get data in the second quarter, or is it the red of True Tide?
- [25:17]
David Reisinger
Yes, well, it's a bit of both. The oral really can be transformational. So I think a big driver of the stock move up today was the fact that management was quite bullish about the likelihood of success of the oral Small Molecule GLP1 candidate, which indeed will generate its first phase three results in the second quarter. What they discussed was that there will be no manufacturing constraints, that they will roll it out globally, aggressively like they would a normal launch. So they contrasted it with Tirzepatide, which is Mounjaro and Zeppbound, which they had to hold back given supply constraints. But here they can manufacture it and roll it out globally. So we're hoping they blanket the world with it when they start to launch that drug, if successful in 2026, what.
- [26:08]
Guy Adami
Is the time to market? You know, after phase three results are posted and they get the go ahead, how much longer do we have to wait for that to actually hit that worldwide release? And how do you view that in terms of cannibalizing sales of the injectables?
- [26:24]
David Reisinger
Yes, good question. So in terms of the filing, we're expecting a filing of what's called or for Glipron, that small molecule, in the second half of this year and then a launch hopefully, you know, maybe in the middle of 26 or third quarter of 26. So approval probably in less than a year after it's filed in the second half of this year and then the next one up after that is the triple G candidate that you mentioned, retatrutide. So that has three different mechanisms to lower weight. Tirzepatide has two mechanisms in it. So it could offer even greater weight loss than Tirzepatide. That will generate its initial phase three data this year. They move that up from 2026 to late 25 for the first trial. They'll file that in 26 if it's successful and launch that one in 27.
- [27:19]
Guy Adami
How do you think about margins? How do you think about revenue when it comes to the pill version, which presumably would be manufactured at a lower cost and maybe sold at a lower cost versus the injectables?
- [27:34]
David Reisinger
So we think it's going to significantly expand the market and access because they can potentially offer it at a lower price. It will be lower cost of goods sold and it will be more accessible. So certainly there won't be the supply constraints and you know, the difficulties of pharmacy access. So it offers a tremendous opportunity and helps to broaden the portfolio beyond.
- [27:59]
Dan Nathan
Just today, David, they gave guidance 22 and a half to $24 for earnings. I'll give you 24 and I'll divide by 870 and I'll throw you a 36 times this year's numbers. Big valuation. But does it even matter in this environment? Because when it matters, I mean, you think about it, historically these pharma companies traded half of that.
- [28:24]
David Reisinger
Yeah, that's an excellent question. Well, the reason why the stock supports such a high multiple and why we're still rated outperform on it is that the company's growth prospects are really just outstanding. So their revenue guidance for this year is for the revenue for the total company to grow over 30%. So, you know, that's more than triple most large cap pharma companies. And then beyond 2025, there's still a tremendous opportunity to generate additional sales in the field of obesity. We believe that today less than a million people are on tirzepatide for obesity or zepbound for obesity in the U.S.
- [29:11]
Guy Adami
I think a lot of them are here in New York. David, great to see you. Thank you. David, thank you so much of Lyrink. And oh, by the way, Eli Lilly does have a pipeline. It's got its alpha Alzheimer's drug, Kisuma. It's also got in the pipeline that's on the market. Kasuma in the pipeline, a metastatic breast cancer drug which could be coming to market. So it's got things other than obesity here.
- [29:34]
Karen Finerman
Yes, but obesity I think is really driving the story.
- [29:38]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [29:38]
Karen Finerman
You know, so there seems to be a lull in the last few weeks until this and Novo actually both today. I'm still long. It's expensive for sure. But I believe in the story being much, much bigger.
- [29:50]
Guy Adami
Would you rather?
- [29:51]
Carter Worth
Rather? I mean the other choice is don't do it cash. To your point, it's lulled. It's been sort of doing nothing since September. And this sort of not quite fixes the pattern, but today's strength repairs it to some extent. My own hunch is if you've caught this 20, 25% move off the low of a week or so ago, sell.
- [30:09]
Dan Nathan
Calls or trim filled a gap. If you go back and look, we had a huge downdraft gap that was created. This move today filled that gap on big volume. It's logical to CBW point that we pause here. Melissa.
- [30:22]
Guy Adami
Coming up, the Palantir pop continues. Shares up more than 30% in a week and more than 400% in a year. What my CO is seeing in the options pits and how one tech analyst says you should handle this move, don't go anywhere. Fast money's back in.
- [30:36]
Melissa Lee
To miss the moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [30:56]
Guy Adami
Welcome back to Fast MONEY Stocks Mix. Ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. The Dow dropping 125 points while the S and P and NASDAQ both manage gains. Shares of Metta hitting a fresh all time high. The Stock Notching its 14th straight day of gains, extending its longest winning streak on on record. It is up more than 15% in that time, adding more than $260 billion in market cap. Meantime, some chip stocks under pressure. Qualcomm and ARM holdings lower on the back of results yesterday and Apple Suppliers. Skyworks plummeting nearly 25% after the company said the iPhone maker shifting some of its business to a competitor, likely Broadcom. Skyworks also announcing a new CEO. And some more after hours action. Shares of ELF Beauty dropping after missing earnings estimates. Expedia jumping after beating expectations on the top of the bottom lines and reinstating its quarterly dividend. And Bill holdings plummeting on light guidance. Dan, you're pointing to the chip data points and how it built a pastiche about.
- [31:55]
Melissa Lee
That's actually, that's a Carter word to be honest. Max Myers, Mosaic.
- [32:02]
Guy Adami
You know all these things.
- [32:03]
Melissa Lee
Well, listen, you know, I don't think people had particularly high expectations of Qualcomm, right. And we know that that is very levered to handsets. Right. And at one point you could have made the argument that they're making chips for co pilot PCs, which was going to be an extension of this AI trade. Well, Apple is a 22% customer and based on what we heard from Apple in China, down 11% year over year. Obviously iPhone's a big part of that. Apple intelligence not there. Now the Chinese are looking at, you know, the services fees and the like here. It seems like the whole growth story for Apple in China is kaput. Apple did not grow handsets last year while Android grew like 3% or so. So I think everything related to handsets is not great. We've also heard consumer electronics away from some of the stuff that Apple did well on and Macs and iPad were okay, it's just not particularly great. So unless you're making GPUs that go into servers, that go into data centers or your Broadcom and you're making custom chips for folks like, you know, Apple and the like here, it's just not a great place to be. So you know, again, I think the Asics, I think Marvel and Broadcom are probably buys on dips.
- [33:06]
Guy Adami
All right, meantime, take a look at shares of Palantir jumping yet again today. Now up nearly 35% just this week and it's only Thursday. There's still another day here. The software darling posting blowout earnings results after the bell on Monday. And even with the record gains, options traders are still piling in. Mike Koh joins us here with the action. Mike?
- [33:26]
Tony Wong
Yeah, so we're seeing obviously very big moves and very big volumes. This was one of the busiest single stocks today, traded about a million calls, actually double its average daily volume. And the most active contracts were for next week anyway, the 110 and 115 calls. And we saw a buyer of about 12,110, 115 call spreads paid about a dollar and a quarter. So that's basically spending about one and a half million bucks in premium betting that the rally that we saw could continue. And by the way, when they put that trade on stock was still trading about a buck, oh seven. So it's already profitable.
- [34:02]
Guy Adami
Based on what you see, Mike, does it look like retail traders are doing most of the options trading?
- [34:06]
Tony Wong
Well, I mean, the one I just referenced, I don't think there's too many retail traders who are making one and a half million dollar bets for just one week. But there is a tremendous amount of retail flow as well. I mean, it's kind of similar to what you see in the likes of Nvidia and Tesla and and so on. This is taking on almost a meme stock kind of a tone to it right now.
- [34:24]
Guy Adami
Right? All right, Mike, thank you. Mike Koh, our next guest thinks the clock could be about to strike midnight on Palantir's Cinderella run. Jeffrey is managing director and senior software analyst Brent Thill joins us now. Brent, great to have you with us. What's so amazing, Brent, is that you have a lot of company in the analyst community in terms of not having a favorable view of of this stock that has gone gangbusters. There are 13 hold ratings on the stock, five sells and only five buys. Why so skeptical? Is a purely valuation?
- [34:54]
J
Yeah, look, we're wrong and we get things wrong, but I think a lot of other picks have been right. So I point to Palantir's fundamentals. There are very few companies that are doing what they are doing. So to give them credit, their fundamentals have been pretty incredible.
- [35:10]
Guy Adami
Right?
- [35:10]
J
30% top line growth, high margins. So the rule of 70 to 80 is in play. There are very few companies you look all week, this week, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, all disappointed on cloud, where's the AI? And Palantir saying, well, we got the AI. So I think ultimately right now what's helping Palantir, great fundamentals on their behalf. Secondarily, there are not a lot of institutional investors. I've said this, I do not deal with retail investors. Our clients are institutional investors. And institutional community is not there in big size. So is that a catalyst? Potentially, I think you go back to the third element is everyone else is not doing well in tech right now. And so ultimately this is giving Dr. Karp's view of hey, everyone else sucks and we're amazing pitch hold weight. And so again, I mean, we're at a point right now, where the stock is in la la land on multiple, there's nothing anywhere remotely close to this. Our team has been advocating there's better ways, safer ways for investors to own these themes are on AI, whether it's Security and CrowdStrike or Cloudflare. You look at other stories, but when you start to look at this market cap, it's the market cap of Palantir is the combination of Adobe and Snowflake combined. I mean, it's, again, we've never seen a multiple like this. And I can just give you history. When Snowflake, Datadog and others hit this multiple back in during COVID they didn't hold that multiple and it was not a good story on the other side of this mountain. It was, it was, they all employed. They went from 50 times revenue to Snowflake went to 8 times revenue. So again, we're not saying that happens short term. There's enough momentum and enough good, good goodness in the fundamentals. But I think again, you just, we have to look at it both from the fundamentals. A plus valuation, again, nothing even remotely close to this valuation.
- [37:10]
Dan Nathan
We've been making the same point, Brenton, and thanks for being here. And I'll say this, even if you give them add the $5 billion of cash they have and say they're going to do $5 billion of revenue, make that 10 and then divide it by 230, it's still a ridiculous valuation. So my question to you is, what will be the trigger that says when the street finally says this does. Because as you said, we've seen it before. So what are we waiting for? What do we need to see for that trigger to be sort of, I guess, set off?
- [37:38]
J
Well, I think there's a trigger ultimately in the multiple at some point.
- [37:42]
David Reisinger
Right.
- [37:42]
J
Again, it's gone from 25 times revenue to 50 plus. So, you know, could this go to 75 times revenue? You know, it's in, it's, again, it's in the stratosphere and it's, it's launch and it's there. So multiple could keep going higher in the short term. I think the fundamentals are good and at some point are they going to have a miss on the quarter or not? I don't see anything really competitive that's, that's causing a big issue. And I think the only thing right now is, you know, the rest of tech is kind of sick. You look at the mega caps, you know, even Amazon again, we're three for three this week of not making the numbers. And so ultimately I think there's, you know, some concern around what's going on with the rest of tech.
- [38:23]
Guy Adami
Right. Brent, nice save on the shot of Jefferies. Dan, just quickly on Palantir, this is actually, this whole segment was sparked by a comment that you made that this is basically nuts.
- [38:36]
Melissa Lee
The story, it's just hard, you know, Brent, just put it there. I mean Snowflake and Adobe and you put those together and that's the market cap here. This is a company like, you know, Guy said he's being very liberal of 5 billion. I mean if they do 4.1 on a 3.7 estimate right now, it still wouldn't make any sense. So you know, you got to figure out what are their moats, who's coming after and that sort of thing. It's a really small revenue base and the valuation is getting insane by the day or more insane.
- [39:01]
Guy Adami
We're getting more color from Amazon's conference call on CapEx and more. Kate's been listening in. Kate Rooney, what do you have?
- [39:07]
Kate Rooney
Hey Melissa. So we did get that CapEx number. Amazon does plan to spend about $105 billion for 2025. They put it this way, it was 26.3 billion in the fourth quarter. They say that run rate is expected to continue. So that was well above what a lot of analysts had been expecting. Andy Jassy, the CEO, talking about some of the thinking. He says the vast majority of that capex spending is on AI for us. He says the way the cash cycle works here, the faster we grow, the more we end up spending because we have to grid data center hardware and chips. Says they are indeed seeing those signals of demand. And when U.S. is expanding CapEx, particularly in what he describes as a once in a lifetime business opportunity that I represents, he says I actually think it's quite a good thing on that level of spending. He also talked about some of the constraints on chips which could be helpful for Nvidia. But guys, bottom line, the mega cap spending spree is continuing here.
- [40:03]
Guy Adami
So $105 billion in CapEx or fiscal 25k, that's, I mean wasn't expected to be 85.
- [40:11]
Kate Rooney
Yeah, about 86. So it's significantly higher than what the street was looking for. I haven't looked at the shares after hours after those comments, but I also wonder what it's doing to Nvidia. But it does talk about the level that they are planning to spend. It's the last of the mega caps to report here and some of the constraints and need for chips and power really so there are sort of knock on effects that will have broader market effects. And one of the fear factors going into this is that Amazon would not increase Capex and they clearly did here. But the call is still going on, Mel, so we'll bring any highlights.
- [40:43]
Guy Adami
All right, Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney, the stock is no surprise moving lower on the back of that big number coming up, the lap of luxury looking pretty comfortable these days. Results that had Tapestry and Ralph Lauren jumping during the session and whether there's more room to run. Fast money's back in June. Welcome back to FAST money. A couple of retail names hitting record highs today. Ralph Lauren and coach parent Tapestry both soaring after beating earnings and revenue estimates. The holiday quarters both painting a brighter picture for the high end consumer than Capri which gave a weak outlook yesterday and in particular for Ralph Lauren was interesting strength finally or relative strength finally in the wholesale part of the business.
- [41:29]
Karen Finerman
Yeah, I mean for both of us. I mean both of them were just outstanding quarters on pretty much every metric. And so similar stories actually for both. But it is interesting. I mean, how lucky? Good, whatever, smart. The Tapestry was unable to close that deal because the stock's been nothing but straight up since then. It was really, really impressive. I'm surprised we didn't see a little more spillover into some other names.
- [41:53]
Guy Adami
All right. Coming up, a bet that could really move the sticks. Sports betting stocks are warming up for what could be record breaking wagers on the big game. What the rivalry is doing for that space Next, more fast money in. Welcome back to fast money. Super Bowl 59 just three days away. Will the Eagles soar to victory or will the Chiefs score a 3 peat? Sports bettors have a lot at stake on the answer to that question as this could be a record breaking weekend for wagers. CNBC's Contessa Brewer joins us live from New Orleans for more Contessa. Well, Melissa, three peat would be historic. And look, there is big money coming in. Big money on the betting bull. We could say 1.39 billion. The estimate of how much Americans will wager on the nation's legal license sportsbook according to the American Gaming Association. But look, that's just chump change. If you look at how much is wagered on office spools, on illegal bookies and offshore accounts. Last year's wagering estimate included those platforms for a total of more than 23 billion. And this year you've got Kalshi and crypto.com crowding their way in. Robinhood tried and just ditched its effort to accept trades through the predictions markets plus their sweepstakes style, gambling and fantasy. Plus, look, it's just a lot of competition for the sportsbooks that have invested billions of dollars in licensing and customer acquisition. I got to ask Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes whether the boom in gambling is good for the game of football.
- [43:35]
Tony Wong
He gets people watching. I think that that's good for the sport. But at the end of the day, I want people to realize that it's a game that you play on the playground for recess and the stuff that you just go out there and give everything you love. And I think that's what we got to do on the football field. And I think that's everybody on that football field.
- [43:51]
Guy Adami
Chiefs right now, one and a half point favorites. Tomorrow, it's a gaming all star lineup with a who's who in the sports betting world. Starting off with Amy Howe. Bright and early on Squawkbox. Melissa, I'll send it back to you. All right, Contessa. Thank you. Contessa Brewer in New Orleans.
- [44:10]
Dan Nathan
Birds and over. Birds on the money line and over. Fly, eagles fly. Back to you.
- [44:16]
Guy Adami
I don't even know what. That's like a foreign language to me.
- [44:19]
Melissa Lee
Guy. What was it like at Super Bowl 1? Well, I know you cut.
- [44:23]
Dan Nathan
It's really funny you say that. You know, it's not even funny. It's not even funny at all.
- [44:28]
Guy Adami
How do any of these gaming socks look like?
- [44:30]
Carter Worth
I mean, I think they're all pairs of twos that you. This would just stay away.
- [44:34]
Guy Adami
Keeping with the theme and ahead of the big game, do not miss an interview with Kansas City Chiefs owner Clark Hunt on the new CNBC sports podcast launching today. Scan that QR code on your screen or go to cnbc.com sport podcast to listen in. Up next, final treats, final trade time.
- [44:59]
Carter Worth
Carter Upstart holdings for a pop.
- [45:02]
Guy Adami
Karen.
- [45:02]
Karen Finerman
Yes. Match.com I like the new CEO a lot.
- [45:05]
Melissa Lee
Dan Nathan, Novo Nordisk to fill in the gap.
- [45:08]
Dan Nathan
Guy, it is that time of year.
- [45:10]
Guy Adami
It is.
- [45:10]
Dan Nathan
And we have been blessed here. And you'd figure our luck's gonna run out at some point. But Martina Zachary has been with us now for the last few months. Spectacular. The University of Michigan should be proud of themselves because she's a proud alum.
- [45:24]
Melissa Lee
Thank you, Martina.
- [45:25]
Dan Nathan
As can be. And she's leaving us for much greener pastures, which is typically the case. Thank you, Martina.
- [45:33]
Karen Finerman
Thank you, Martina.
- [45:33]
Dan Nathan
I'm going to well up a little bit here.
- [45:35]
Karen Finerman
Oh, you're such a softy guy.
- [45:38]
Tony Wong
I am.
- [45:38]
Dan Nathan
It's so sad. Citibank Citibank.
- [45:41]
Guy Adami
Thank you and thank you Martina and thank you for watching Fast Money Bad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do.
- [45:55]
Melissa Lee
Not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal.
- [45:59]
Guy Adami
Their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the.
- [46:17]
Melissa Lee
Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither.
- [46:19]
Guy Adami
CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Learn how to.
- [46:32]
Melissa Lee
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- [46:37]
Guy Adami
We'll give you examples that can help you master AI tools.
- [46:41]
Melissa Lee
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