CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary: "Amazon’s Quarterly Revenue Beats Out Walmart… And Palantir’s Next Move" (02/06/25)

Release Date: February 6, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Carter Worth, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami

1. Amazon's Earnings Report and Market Reaction (00:32 - 08:08)

Overview: Amazon reported its quarterly earnings, surpassing top and bottom-line estimates. Despite strong performance in its cloud unit, the company issued a weak sales forecast for Q1, leading to a significant after-hours stock dip.

Key Points:

• Earnings Beat: Amazon exceeded expectations in both revenue and profits.
• Cloud Growth: Cloud unit growth aligned with analysts' projections at 19%.
• Sales Forecast: Weak sales guidance for Q1 impacted investor sentiment.
• Foreign Exchange Impact: Amazon anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately $2.1 billion due to foreign exchange fluctuations.

Notable Quotes:

• Kate Rooney (CNBC, 01:30): "Amazon did beat for the quarter on top and bottom line... A leap year effect from last year."
• Karen Finerman (02:53): "Right in line is just not quite good enough right here to me... They’re not great at forecasting and I don't think they really care about forecasting."
• Melissa Lee (06:08): "They have the capacity to serve a lot of those clients... Their infrastructure build is a little different than say Google..."

Expert Insights:

• Tony Wong (T. Rowe Price): Highlights Amazon's long-term strengths, including infrastructure, AWS growth, advertising business, and robotics integration. Emphasizes Amazon as a "nice compounder" with multiple growth drivers.

2. Census Data Unavailability and Its Implications (13:10 - 16:28)

Overview: CNBC reports that crucial economic data sets from census.gov are currently inaccessible to the public, raising concerns among economists and data analysts.

Key Points:

• Data Blocks: Essential datasets like population estimates and Tiger mapping data are restricted.
• Impact on Research: Economists and researchers rely heavily on this data for economic analysis and scientific research.
• Potential Causes: Unclear whether it’s a technical glitch or part of a broader federal data purge affecting multiple sectors.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Liesman (13:39): "Data normally downloaded by economists is just not there... It suggests that there may be internal pressures not to publish data that we rely on."
• Dan Nathan (16:28): "Without being political at all, that's just one more reason why volatility should be coming back in this market in a somewhat meaningful way."

3. Pinterest's Impressive Q4 Earnings (19:00 - 22:42)

Overview: Pinterest reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, driven by enhanced shopability, AI integration, and strong user growth, leading to a surge in after-hours trading.

Key Points:

• Revenue Growth: Achieved first $1 billion revenue quarter.
• AI Tools: Enhanced advertiser efficiencies and a record number of clicks during the holiday season.
• International Expansion: Significant growth in Europe and other international markets.

Notable Quotes:

• Julie Boorstin (20:00): "Pinterest showing its focus on shop ability, AI, and direct response ads paying off... a record number of clicks during the holiday season."
• Bill Ready (Pinterest CEO): Emphasizes doubling down on AI to drive personalized user experiences and increasing platform shopability.

Panel Discussion:

• Karen Finerman (21:12): "Great balance sheet. The stock's trading up... people see an opportunity for a bright spot in big tech."
• Carter Worth (22:21): Reflects on last year's stock plunge and anticipates a potential price movement toward previous high levels.

4. Eli Lilly's Weight Loss Drugs and Pipeline Developments (24:30 - 29:10)

Overview: Eli Lilly experienced a stock jump despite its weight loss drugs missing sales estimates. The company remains bullish on its obesity pipeline, accelerating timelines for next-generation treatments.

Key Points:

• Earnings Beat Guidance: Although revenue from weight loss drugs Manjaro and Zepbound fell short, overall earnings guidance exceeded expectations.
• Pipeline Optimism: Moving up data timelines for injectable retatrutide and introducing oral Small Molecule GLP1 candidates.
• Market Potential: Oral medications expected to expand market access due to lower costs and higher accessibility.

Notable Quotes:

• David Reisinger (Leering Partners, 25:16): "The oral really can be transformational... they're hoping to blanket the world with it if successful in 2026."
• Dan Nathan (27:59): "Revenue guidance for the total company to grow over 30%... less than a million people are on tirzepatide for obesity or zepbound for obesity in the U.S."

5. Palantir's Record Stock Performance and Analyst Perspectives (30:36 - 38:23)

Overview: Palantir's stock surged over 35% in a week, driven by strong earnings and significant options market activity. However, analysts express skepticism due to the company's lofty valuation metrics.

Key Points:

• Stock Surge: Palantir up nearly 35% in a week and 400% in a year.
• Options Trading: High volume in call options indicates bullish sentiment, often dominated by retail investors.
• Valuation Concerns: Critics argue the stock's market cap is disproportionately high compared to its revenue and growth prospects.

Notable Quotes:

• Brent Thill (Jefferies, 34:54): "Palantir's fundamentals have been pretty incredible... 30% top line growth, high margins."
• Dan Nathan (37:38): "Even if you add the $5 billion of cash they have and say they're going to do $5 billion of revenue, it still wouldn't make any sense."

Analyst Debate:

• Brent Thill: Balances strong fundamentals with caution over valuation. Points out the lack of institutional investment as a potential catalyst.
• Melissa Lee (39:00): Questions the sustainability of Palantir's valuation compared to peers like Adobe and Snowflake.

6. Additional Market Movements and Insights (08:08 - 44:30)

Amazon's CapEx Plans:

• Kate Rooney (39:06): Amazon plans to spend $105 billion on CapEx for 2025, significantly higher than analysts' expectations. Majority allocated to AI expansion.

High-End Consumer Sector:

• Ralph Lauren & Tapestry: Both companies reported outstanding quarters, exceeding earnings and revenue estimates. Their strong performance reflects resilience in the high-end consumer sector, contrasting with weaker outlooks from competitors like Capri.

Sports Betting Industry:

• Super Bowl Impact: Anticipated record-breaking wagers with legal and illegal betting platforms competing fiercely. The industry sees a surge in user engagement and revenue prospects.

Notable Quotes:

• Melissa Lee (21:50): "Amazon's CapEx spending... it's the last of the mega caps to report here."
• Carter Worth (44:15): "Match.com I like the new CEO a lot."

7. Final Thoughts and Closing Remarks (44:34 - 46:40)

Host Sign-Off: Melissa Lee and Guy Adami wrap up the episode by highlighting key takeaways, including Amazon's aggressive AI investments, Pinterest's robust earnings, Eli Lilly's promising pipeline, and Palantir's controversial yet impressive stock performance.

Notable Reminders:

• Disclaimers: Emphasis on opinions being those of the hosts and guests, not CNBC.
• Promotions: Brief mentions of sponsors and upcoming segments, which were excluded from the main summary.

Conclusion: This episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" provided a comprehensive analysis of significant movements in major companies like Amazon, Pinterest, Eli Lilly, and Palantir. The panel offered diverse perspectives on earnings reports, strategic investments in AI, market reactions, and future growth trajectories, equipping investors with actionable insights to navigate the dynamic financial landscape.