
U.S. treasury's surge while stocks drop as Chairman Kevin Warsh leads his long-anticipated first Fed meeting. What we learned from his press conference, and the major overhaul coming to Fed operations. Then in a CNBC exclusive interview, CME Group’s Terry Duffy talks perpetual futures, his reaction to the Fed meeting, and why he’s stepping down as CEO after 25 years. Plus, China stocks underperform while U.S. large cap banks soar, UniQure’s 75% spike, and why Netflix investors are changing the channel. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ markets out in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. There's a new sheriff at the Fed. Chairman Wash leading his first central bank meeting as the Fed leaves rates unchanged. What we learned and didn't learn from the press conference and how a wash Fed is going to look a whole lot different going forward. Plus the end of an era. Terry Duffy, the CME is stepping down as CEO. He will join us exclusively to talk about his decision, what he sees in store for the exchange and much, much more. And later, one firm's very rosy outlook for micro Microsoft, the China tech tumble and a biotech boomer. What is behind the massive surge in shares of Unicure? I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. We've got a packed desk for you. Tonight's a historic day after all. Tim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Dan Nathan Gaidami and the head of multiasset Macro Macro Investing. Your title's too long. Janice Henderson, Michael Kantopoulos, great to have you here tonight.
Guy Adami
Thanks.
Melissa Lee
But we start off with today's Fed decision and Chairman Kevin Warsh's first meeting at the helm. The central bank voting unanimously to leave rates unchanged. Warsh's first Fed statement a whole lot shorter than the last one from Powell. And the new chairman announced a major review of how the Fed works. He's establishing five task force here to break it all down. Our senior economics reporter, Steve Liesman.
Steve Liesman
Steve, well listen, new Fed chair Kevin was coming out of the gate with a hawkish message on rates, reflecting that he inherited an inflation problem and saying the committee is strongly pledging to deal with it.
Melissa Lee
We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed's long stated
Unidentified Speaker (short interjection)
inflation goal of 2%.
Brandon Gomez
That's been going on for more than five years. I am pleased to report that members
Melissa Lee
of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous this committee will deliver price stability.
Steve Liesman
Warsh clearly has embraced, at least for now, the existing hawkish bent of the committee that he inherited. Where nine Fed officials are now projecting at least one rate hike this year, 62 or more, eight expect to hold rate steady and one cut is projected this year. That's a big change from how it was before. And markets have taken Wash and the Fed seriously big sell off in the two year. The first hike in the fed funds market futures market now 67 probability for September had been that first hike priced in for December 2nd hike 55% in January. There was not really a second hike priced in before the meeting was pledged a rethink of how the Fed does its business. Appointing task forces to rethink Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs and the inflation framework, among other things. War stuck to his long standing view that productivity will be perform transformative for the US but it seemed as if any incorporation of that into policy that's going to have to wait until the new sheriff deals with the existing inflation problem and hitting that 2% target. Melissa.
Melissa Lee
Steve, I'm wondering if you if you thought that Warsh was definitively hawkish. I mean there is a case to be made that he's simply delivering the views of the committee and nine did lean that way. And so maybe it's being overly reacted to as being a hawkish sort of tone.
Steve Liesman
Perhaps, you know, when you first of all he did not really give forward guidance, but he did give forward guidance when you come in and say look, I have an inflation problem and we're definitively going to deal with it. Well, at the moment there's only one way to deal with it and that would be either to hold rates or to raise rates. And that's the way the committee put those dots. And I think it's interesting to think about whether or not he's kind of seeded the bully pulpit by not giving his own sort of take on things and not giving any forward guidance at all. You know what that does, Melissa? It makes every statement by every Fed official next week more important. And maybe, maybe he wanted to be sort of unclear like Greenspan was. But look at what the market did. Take a look at the two year. Those are real and substantial losses in the two year and a real rethink of where the Fed is going in the Fed funds futures market. So he can give guidance or not give guidance, but the market's going to find guidance and it's going to trade tomorrow no matter what the Fed Chair does.
Karen Feynman
Steve, it's Karen. I want you to explain something to me. I was surprised given how hawkish I thought he was, that the 10 year actually sold off. I would have thought if he came in dovish that that would have caused the 10 year to go. Maybe everything would have caused the 10 year to trade off, I don't know. But what's, what's your take on it?
Steve Liesman
I would look at it a slightly different way. I would look at the 210 spread if you could. And you can see that the 10 year went up by 6 basis points. But look at the 2 year 14 basis points. That's a real flattener. So one way to think about this is the market is kind of taking Warsh at his word that he will deal with the inflation problem and that means higher long term rates, sorry, short term rates, but not necessarily higher long term rates. Yes, the ten year did sell off a bit, but it could have sold off a lot more given that. I think what that means is that the market is not really pricing in so much inflation in the future as it did before.
Guy Adami
Yeah, Steve, this is Mike and topless, you know, War should mention that he is paying attention to the left side of the 2% number and not to the right side. So I guess he kind of bought himself an inflation target of 2.94%. I mean, do you think he sort of reset what the, the new benchmark is for inflation by saying that?
Steve Liesman
Not yet. Because if you listened a little later on he said it's 2.0. That's the committee's target right now. And he's sticking with it until this task force comes out. So. And I don't think what I heard him say is that we can, what Powell said we can change the target after we hit it. If you change it before you hit it, then you have a credibility problem. So I think longer term there has been for a while discussion about going to a range, being in and around the target, not trying to be so precise about it. That's always made some sense to me. But I don't think you can come off the target or even change the metric for the target before you hit it. And that gives you the flexibility. This task force may also give him the flexibility to do that. But that's going to be down the road.
Melissa Lee
Yep. Steve, thank you. Steve Leesman in Washington. Did the markets overreact, guy?
Dan Nathan
No.
Tim Seymour
I mean, guns blaze in the midst of hear from the administration, they tell you we don't have an inflation problem. They're winning the war on inflation. They've been saying that for a while. Turns out, according to the Fed chair, which I am not, they're not winning the war on inflation.
Dan Nathan
No, I'm not.
Michael Kantopoulos
I mean, I, you know, maybe someday.
Tim Seymour
I mean, but he's flat out said we have a problem. And we've talked about that on this show for quite some time. So I'm, I'm enthusiastic, the fact that he brings it up, but the market clearly didn't like it. And I think again, I've thought rates are going higher. This does nothing to change my view about that.
Melissa Lee
He did frame it perfectly. And, you know, last I checked, there was no tweet by Trump on this performance. So maybe he threaded the needle, but he framed it perfectly in terms of this delivering price stability because he said the American people have been dealing with inflation for five years now and we're going to do something about it. So politic. I know the Fed's not political, but politically he made it palatable to actually go down that route.
Guy Adami
Yeah, he sure did. I mean, he, you know, basically said, hey, this really started the obi, you know, the Biden administration, and it's just kind of continued for the last year. But, but overall, I thought Marsh did a fantastic job today. I really did. I was pleasantly surprised. I thought he threaded the needle perfectly. I am spot on. I agree with him on forward guidance. You know, I think the market needs to have a little bit of volatility to keep, you know, to keep things in check and to not allow for, for stupid behavior amongst investors. And, you know, I thought Wash did a pretty good job to, you know, make sure that the American public knew that they're serious about inflation and that it hasn't gone away. So I thought you did a pretty good job.
Michael Kantopoulos
Well, we'll talk about the stock market and its reaction. But I mean, to me there's no question war equals more volatility for the equity market, less transparency on the Fed. And this is a Bernanke thing. We go back to the Greenspan Fed and I go back to my first days on Wall street when you had, when you had economic numbers, especially a payroll number on Friday, you saw the market do a lot of things that you didn't expect it to do. I'm talking about like a cha cha cha cha and then eventually Dan's a cha cha guy. I also think it's just interesting because here's a little zing at the Fed. Inflation may be running ahead of the Fed's. The Fed's inflation target goals because of the Fed. I mean let's call it what it is. I mean I think there's been an accommodative policy at the Fed that goes back at least five years. You can make it goes all the way back to a Fed that's been involved in markets more than they probably should going back to the Fed.
Karen Feynman
I mean, you know it's not just monetary fiscal. Right. I mean look what's happened.
Michael Kantopoulos
I'm saying that the Fed is an institution whoever within the Fed. But the Fed arguably has as much to do with inflation in this country and I mean long term inflation I think than the politics in Washington. It's less about fiscal than it is monetary policy. I think monetary policy. And I think Wash is a guy, one of the, you know there, there are a lot of hawks out there that believe that Wash is exactly the guy for the job and that's because of what he said today. But he comes from a world and I think Scott Besson comes, comes from this world too where the sense is that the Fed has been goosing markets for a long time. So I mean I'm just, that's just my, my dig at the Fed that says inflation has been running ahead of our target. I think it's because of you. I also think that what I heard today is this is at least a Fed today. And I realize there may not be a labor force problem. We've had payroll numbers recently that have been actually very resilient and strong. But this sounds like a Fed that's a little asymmetric in terms of their dual mandate that they're focused a lot more on inflation than they are job stability.
Dan Nathan
Yeah. You know I go back to the last two times that we've seen rate hike cycle and that was kind of 2017 into 2018. Stock market acted very well throughout that 2022. It did not act particularly well. Right. And I think there were a lot of other things going on there and that was an inflationary story. But if we were to start having rate hikes here, I think the stock market at all time highs, the valuations where it is and when you think about a lot of that GDP growth where it's coming from at this stage of the game, it just could pose a little bit of a problem. And I think if you look at just the last year and a half or so, you know, we've had sell offs in the market and they've come from, you know, some events that have been really, you know, like, I don't know, like created for all intents and purposes by the administration. And when you think about the possibility of a Fed chair who is just appointed, which is very similar to 1718 with Powell who starts raising interest rates, well, it gets a bit more combative and then investors without that transparency probably lose a little faith, faith in what's going on. And I agree with Tim. You know, going back when I started the business, the Fed was, yeah, they did things, they would surprise you and they'd raise rates.
Michael Kantopoulos
No obligation to tell you what was.
Dan Nathan
And it was volatile and it was fun.
Guy Adami
It's healthy.
Dan Nathan
You know, they want fast money to be awesome again.
Melissa Lee
Well, wait, excuse me.
Michael Kantopoulos
When are we not awesome?
Dan Nathan
Sandy saying in my ear. No, I mean this will be fun. All right, have a call, people.
Unidentified Speaker (advertisement)
You know what I mean?
Melissa Lee
Like, isn't there a distinction between raising rates and a rate hike cycle?
Terry Duffy
Yes.
Melissa Lee
I mean, do you think that him talking today unleashes a rate? Is that.
Dan Nathan
Yeah. But in 2022, what was priced in going into that rate hiking cycle? It certainly wasn't going from 50 basis points to 550 basis points. And we don't know what the heck happened. I mean, like, Well, I mean, 2022
Guy Adami
is a poor example, Dan, because you're also during an earnings recession. And right now the US earnings growth is between 18, 20%.
Dan Nathan
So that's where, that's, where's it go from here?
Michael Kantopoulos
Well, that's a different story.
Guy Adami
Margins, peak earnings, but it's not going to go down. You're not going to have in the earnings story because the Fed hikes once or twice, to Melissa's point. Are they going to embark on a 500 basis point hiking cycle? Are you going to hike once or twice? And certainly that's going to matter in terms of the direction of earnings growth and economic growth. But one of the things that washed it today that I thought was really like, it was just good to hear is he basically said monetary conditions, financial conditions are easy outside of the housing sector. And he couldn't find a single place in the economy. I'm, you know, paraphrasing. You couldn't find a single place, the economy where monetary policy was actually tight other than in housing. And I just, I actually don't think Powell would have said that. And all we've heard is about how policy is, you know, on the tighter side of accommodative. And. And, you know, it's refreshing to hear that a little bit from Marsh.
Karen Feynman
I agree with. They're all saying about messaging to the market and that, that it's not our job to message. It's not our job to hold the market's hand. That's. We got a dual mandate. That's not a third mandate. So I thought that was interesting. I could see down the road where he might butt heads with an administration that is very focused on what the market is doing, but that's for another day.
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
Michael Kantopoulos
I think you have an environment where, again, by the way, 22, I think. I know we had a lot of accommodation. We had a lot of the fiscal accommodation, but the Fed went from transitory to holy cow, we are so far behind the curve, we have to nuke the market. And we had what we had in 22 for the stock market. I think we're all saying something different is happening. This isn't a cycle. The economy is in great shape. And if anything, the bank of America, the. The fund manager survey, they just put out more fund managers than not, said they think Fed policy is too accommodative, not too tight. I think, look, you can't look around at the stock market, everything else, and say that conditions, monetary conditions aren't overly accommodative. So I, I think this is good. Again, I think the chorus here is I give Warsh a lot of credit for flying in his own lane and not being afraid to make some changes at the Fed, that probably the Fed has become a little too big for itself.
Guy Adami
Remember, the transmission mechanism for monetary policy is through credit channels. All you have to see is look at credit spreads, and they're historically tight. Clearly, policy is not. Is not tight.
Melissa Lee
We've got a news alert on Apple. Brandon Gomez got the details. Brandon?
Brandon Gomez
Hey, Melissa. That's right. According to the Wall Street Journal, Apple is reportedly planning to raise prices on its products to offset the surging costs of memory and storage chips. Now, this comes directly from Tim Cook. In an exclusive interview with the Journal, Tim Cook said price increases on products are unavoidable due to surging memory and storage costs. Now, the same report says skyrocketing demand from AI companies for memory and storage chips have quadrupled their prices since last year. Some estimate passing the higher cost on to consumers while maintaining the current profit margins would add about $270 to the price of the next iPhone Pro model Melissa Stock is looking up about half percent.
Melissa Lee
Yep. Brandon thank you. Brandon Gomez that's, that's not insignificant.
Edward Jones Narrator
Jinx.
Melissa Lee
That's kind of a lot. I mean but, but to be fair, I mean for the Apple buyer maybe it's, it's not a lot but you'll still go ahead and buy it. But the impact on a lot of the other sort of electronic goods that aren't as high margin as an Apple who will also have to raise memory price, that's going to be much more detrimental.
Tim Seymour
I mean go back to the inflation thing. I mean this actually I'm sure Kevin Wash is sitting back and saying here you go. See so as you're making my argument for you this is going to be at the margins. My sense is names like Micron and Sandisk are probably higher. I haven't looked our crack staff and he can put up a chart at a. There comes a point where you wonder how, how long this can last. And again passing it on the consumer, that's inflationary. That's something we've talked about. We're at that point in the cycle now where these memory prices are getting passed on to us.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, you know it probably pushes out a portion of this super cycle upgrade, you know that we keep hearing about and we hear about that every year and doesn't really happen for all intents and purposes but when you look at this company, you think about the gross margins. I mean this is a 43% gross margin company five years ago expected to be 48 this year. So they have a little room to do this. When I say do this well, absorb it a little bit and maybe that's what they've been doing and especially as they do a ramp into a new phone. But again I'm with Guy, I mean if Apple is going to do it then you're going to see it a lot further down the food chain.
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Take a look at Micron in the after hours up 2%.
Michael Kantopoulos
Nice job guy and nice job. Crack staff.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, well the crack staff and EC
Unidentified Speaker (short interjection)
does a great job.
Melissa Lee
They're crack, whatever that means. It was down 6%.
Tim Seymour
Very cool cracks that very, very good.
Melissa Lee
Yes, in a good way. In only a good way but nice
Dan Nathan
bounce just like the show.
Melissa Lee
Not according to you. Let's get to the banks now ahead of the Fed decision. Goldman, bank of America, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley all hit fresh, all time highs. Citi jumping to its best levels in 2008 post warcious pressure. Most of today's gains disappeared. Look at the move in the KB Banking ETF starting at 2 o', clock. Let's dive deeper into financials. RBC Capital's Gerard Cassidy. Great to have you with us.
Gerard Cassidy
Thank you Melissa. Pleasure to be here.
Melissa Lee
What do you make of the reaction to the banks and probably more specifically to the flattening of the yield curve?
Gerard Cassidy
I think Melissa, you put your thumb on it is the flattening of the yield curve that may have investors a bit concerned because coming into the year a steepening curve was, you know, what many investors were anticipating. Obviously we had the conflict start in February and the consequences of the Middle east conflict with the higher oil prices and now maybe higher inflation. You all have been discussing it just a moment ago so that that changes the narrative a bit. But when you go back and look in time, you know the first couple of rate increases should we get them are actually positive for the banks and are not necessarily negative. The negative is the rate increases continue for an extended period of time and that leads us into a recession and the credit cycle takes over. We're not suggesting that's going to happen but the first couple normally are pretty good but it's a change in policy that I think people took today and that's why they sold off.
Karen Feynman
Gerard, it's Karen, thanks for being on. I think part of the recent run has been the excitement over IPOs and potentially M and A and financing and all of that that the money center banks really do well on. Do you think that will continue regardless of where rates may move in the short term?
Gerard Cassidy
Karen I think it will because the activity has been so robust this year across the board advisory ecm. You see the IPO calendar working well. You also have had a strong DCM debt capital markets. So again this is a bit not a surprise but it's a bit of a a jolt to the market but I don't think it's enough to really spook the capital markets business and therefore things start to tighten up and business really slows down the pipelines and we're going to hear when they report results which are going to be good in July. I expect the report robust pipelines as well.
Tim Seymour
I know you're a huge fast money fan and you will know for quite some time collectively we've been saying Citibank is too cheap and they don't deserve the same price to tangible book is JP Morgan but they certainly deserve half of that and 150 basically gets you there which is basically where we traded today. Is there more juice left in this squeeze as they say Guy, we're getting
Gerard Cassidy
Most of it out of the city already. And so I still think there's probably upside from here because they still have to spin off the Mexican subsidiary. They also have to start utilizing their DTA is the vertex assets which will be utilized starting this year. And there's more to be utilized in years to come. But you know, it's always in hindsight it looks easy, easy money has been made. But I still think there's some upside the city but it's, they got to deliver and that's going to be the big question, guy. Can they deliver on the expansion of the US card business and the global wealth management business? And if they do, then the upside will be, you know, still much to the more to go.
Melissa Lee
Gerard, great to see you. Thanks for joining us.
Gerard Cassidy
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
Gerard Cassidy, huge fast money fan also of RBC had no choice.
Brandon Gomez
I backed him in no choice and
Melissa Lee
then we cut him off after I said either. Given the run. What is your favorite bank right now?
Michael Kantopoulos
Citibank's been my favorite and biggest position for a long time. I mean it's a 45% move in Citi since early March. But I think it's, it's, it's less about Citi to the other folks. So this is your, you know, this is your argument to go out and buy money center banks. I think it's Citi relative to Citi. I think all the banks should be trading at a different multiple than they did three years ago for a multitude of reasons. And I think they're all sustainable.
Karen Feynman
So my biggest position is JP Morgan, but for obvious reasons, you know, what
Tim Seymour
is that obvious reason?
Michael Kantopoulos
You know, and that's sustainable as well.
Karen Feynman
But I do love Citi as well. Citi is a very big position.
Michael Kantopoulos
Also.
Dan Nathan
JP Morgan is pretty fascinating, the move that it's had over the last week. I mean you don't see this in one of the largest bank stocks in the world too frequently. You know, four consecutive updates. It got back to that all time high in January and it failed there. Now it didn't feel like it was going to fail until about, you know, 215 or 230 or something like that. And we've been making the argument, at least I have, that, you know, we had a market that was making all time highs, it seemed like every day for the last couple of months and the banks were not really participating, your city was. But like the fact that JP Morgan was stuck in the mud and then you have this 10% rally in a week and a half. It makes you think, all right, maybe the economy is just fine. Maybe these banks are looking forward to a whole host of different things on the, you know, capital markets front, that sort of thing. So who knows? I mean, I'm not buying it here, here though.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, strange bedfellows in big tech as Microsoft reportedly turns to a cloud rival for compute capacity. Why? One analyst is making the case that it's a sign of strong growth ahead. That's next. Plus China Tech taking a hit with the K web, shedding a quarter of its value so far this year. What is driving the slow drip lower and whether the group is starting to look cheap at these levels. Don't go anywhere. Fast money is back into.
Terry Duffy
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Michael Kantopoulos
It was amazing.
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Melissa Lee
We have a news alert on SpaceX now, the world's sixth most valuable company, just announcing that Roelof Botha has been added to the board as an independent director and member of the audit committee. The company saying in a filing that Bota will fill an existing vacancy and will serve until the next shareholder meeting. Botha has been at Sequoia Capital since 2003, is a member of the so called PayPal mafia along with Elon Musk serving as the company's CFO when it went public in 2002.
Michael Kantopoulos
Independent board so close. Independent board. Clearly independent board.
Melissa Lee
It doesn't really matter if it's, I mean, it doesn't matter what the board is because nobody can remove him.
Steve Liesman
Okay.
Melissa Lee
Right.
Michael Kantopoulos
But I like, I like how they frame it as an independent board member.
Melissa Lee
Meantime, let's get to our call of the day. Bernstein laying out a bullish outlook on Microsoft as the company rents cloud infrastructure from us to support its GitHub AI capacity issue. Analysts flagging the move as an indicator for an increase in the company's demand. Adding Microsoft's ramp in demand is not being seen elsewhere, believes the tech giant will be capturing and monetizing. Microsoft, still dropping almost 4% today, is still down 21% this year. I don't know if anybody's buying that, at least not today.
Dan Nathan
Well, I don't know how bullish it is right now. I mean, it's great that GitHub is having all this uptake. I mean Microsoft's having a whole host of problems in other parts of their AI, you know, whatever you want to call it, the breakup with Open Air and the like. And they don't have, you know, one of these like large language models of their own. And you know what I find more interesting is that arrangement between X and Anthropic and Google last week. And make no mistake about it, it's great for AI. They had excess capacity. But the interesting thing to me about it is, is that Grok is trying to play catch up, right, with Claude and with Chat, GPT and Gemini and look at all these like cozy relationships. At some point it just can't stay that cozy. And you know, to me, I don't know how to figure it out. We've been spending a lot of time talking about the circular financing in and around in video and OpenAI. But this just complicates the things a little bit.
Tim Seymour
Move since the beginning of the month. I think it traded north of 460 where we closed 380. I mean that's a pretty significant move, understanding that a huge bounce off the lows we saw a couple of months ago. Again, if valuation matters, which I'm not certain that it does anymore, but less than a market multiple for Microsoft, which is still one of the five most important companies in the world, I think it's compelling. And if you don't think they're behind sort of the curve in terms of balance sheet, in terms of the whole software thing, then the stocks are, is screaming by.
Karen Feynman
I do think though the software thing is weighing its problem very heavily. Yeah, you saw it bounce as the IGV had a really, really nice rally a couple of weeks ago and it's come back not all the way, but a fair bit down.
Dan Nathan
Let me, let me just add one thing here because I think it's really important. I don't know if you guys saw this, but you know, Microsoft's considering Putting deep seats R4 model in copilot, it started with chat CBT and then it went to Anthropic and now it's like the cheapest open source model that exists on the planet. And Deep Sea is just running away with it obviously in China and there's quite an also but around the world too. And so all of these companies that are spending hundreds of billions of dollars and possibly trillions by the end of the decade, here's an open source model by the Chinese that maybe not as good as these other ones, but if it starts being used on Azure, on GCP and all these other things, I mean, you're going to look back and you're like there were hundreds of billions of dollars just wasted it on this stuff.
Michael Kantopoulos
But I think that's good for Microsoft. I know they've spent a lot of money, but again, I would just get back to where Microsoft sits on every desktop and where they sit in enterprise. And if it gets cheaper, it's just, it's going to be commoditized and it's why, it's why I own Apple.
Guy Adami
Right.
Michael Kantopoulos
So I, I, I'm going with guy on a multiple here. I just think I'm fine owning Microsoft and nibbling below 400 all day long. And at some point I'm going to be right, I don't need to be right tomorrow. I don't know that they're right right now either.
Dan Nathan
And that's part of the way I think it's actually good for Microsoft. That's kind of the point I'm making. Yeah. You know, they don't have to pay big licensing fees to, you know, for this other, I mean, most of the
Melissa Lee
queries that you do on your desktop probably don't require that much power. Right.
Michael Kantopoulos
Especially guys.
Tim Seymour
Okay. I don't even know what that means.
Gerard Cassidy
I don't even know what that means.
Tim Seymour
By the way, Tim was making fun of my tie. We can do a fast money poll like a wide tie.
Michael Kantopoulos
Five inches, folks.
Tim Seymour
Quarter to five inches.
Michael Kantopoulos
I mean, I know you usually do
Tim Seymour
that yourself, but in this case like
Melissa Lee
a whole other TV show. Coming up, a glitch in the growth story for China Tech. With Alibaba and its peers under pressure again, why investors can't seem to get excited about this trade. That's funny. Be right back.
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Melissa Lee
welcome back to Fast Money. China Tech struggling Chinese Internet ETF the K web is down 40% since its 52 week high back in October. And take a look at where several top China tech stocks are from their yearly highs leading with Alibaba, which is down 4.44percent since its peak last fall. Michael, what's going on? Does what's going on in China relate to this?
Guy Adami
Well, so, so China growth has been quite weak over the last 18 months or so. I actually think there's an inflection coming up. I think you're going to see earnings growth start to accelerate. I think you're going to see the PBOC start to inject some liquidity into the system. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if you see China stocks more broadly led by tech start to outperform reform. You've clearly had a rotation into the chip players, particularly within emerging markets, Ex China, Taiwan, semi and Samsung, etc. You know those, those, those stocks still look great, right? And Amex China looks fantastic both on a valuation basis, broadly, but also on an earnings basis. But China has room to catch up, particularly as earnings start to accelerate and liquidity improves and they're in their dirt cheap. So we actually are starting to think there's some green shoots in China.
Michael Kantopoulos
I think they're green shoots and I but I've been an investor in Alibaba and you should have been a trader over the last few years because you've had some great moves. I think one of the issues with China tech is coming from over here. Meaning I think there has been, there have been people that have been buying Korea and Taiwan and not China. They're buying their global tech. Taiwan Semi is the biggest name in the book and obviously you can get your exposure to Samsung. I think that's the biggest issue. The crowding out.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a major leadership change of CME Group as longtime CEO and best money friends CEO Terry Duffy announces plans to step down. He will join us exclusively to talk succession plans and what is ahead for the exchange. That interview and much more right after this. Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks sliding into the close after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh led his first meeting where the central bank signaled there could be at least one rate hike this year. The the Dow closing 500 points lower after hitting intraday records, while the S and P and Nasdaq each fell by more than a percent. Salesforce dropping 4% for a 12th straight losing session, its longest slide on record. The stock now trading at its lowest level seen since January 2023. Well, shares of the CME Group continuing their recent slide. The stock dropping more than 3% today, now down almost 16% in the past month. Today's drop coming after the exchange announced its longtime leader Terry Duffy will step down as CEO. CME Group president and CFO Lynn Fitzpatrick will replace Duffy as CEO next March. It's not just the CME Group getting slammed. All the major exchanges down sharply. Nasdaq dropping about 7%. ICE down nearly 5%. In the CBO closing lower by nearly 4%. The losses coming as the conversations around perpetual futures and prediction markets are heating up. Joining us now for an exclusive interview, the CME Group's outgoing CEO, Terry Duffy. Terry, it's always a pleasure to have you with us and thanks for joining us.
Terry Duffy
Thank you, Melissa. Appreciate it very much.
Melissa Lee
We're going to talk about you stepping down in just a moment, but we've had certainly since the last time we've spoken to you such a robust discussion about perpetual futures. We've had the CEO of Calcion, we have had the CFTC chair, Michael Seligon, who joined us on Monday. And I'm wondering, Terry, if you think you know, any of this discussion has been behind why your stock and the stock of exchanges, of the exchanges are down. There is a perception that the incumbents are standing there and that they will be not displaced maybe, but some of their business will be taken away by some of these innovative Products, whether it be perpetual futures or other products that the CFTC is keen on bringing to the United States.
Terry Duffy
You know, Melissa, you left out one guy that you flew in from Vail yesterday. You flew in Scaramucci. He also had comments on this. Yes, with their ski outfit on. He also referenced it. Melissa, here. First of all, thank you. And first of all, when we say innovative products, I'd like to know what the innovation is when it comes to perpetual futures. Supposedly, there is no innovation associated with. The difference is on the. There is no exploration on what's perpetual versus the traditional futures market. So there is no real true innovation at all. It's just a replica of a futures contract is today, except it doesn't expire. So there's no innovation there. And if in fact, anybody wanted to go forward with an existing product and turn it into a perpetual, the innovation is flipping a switch. It's not exactly very difficult to do. The question is what's in the best interest of the user of that particular product and how they want to move forward with it. So I think that's really the argument. And when you look at certain asset classes, Melissa, you know, you could say that a crypto contract is perpetual unless it goes out of business or gets delisted. And you could technically say that an equity is a perpetual contract unless that company gets delisted from the exchange. And it's more perpetual. But when you look at interest rates, they have embedded, you know, dates of certainty associated with them. When you have commodity products, they get consumed or disposed of. So those are not perpetual. And then in the equities, Melissa, you know this, we have an exclusive license with every single provider of the benchmarks. So all of these would have to go through cme, regardless of the perpetual. And so I also find it amusing to some degree that when you had on chair Selig, he referenced that his decision was based off of some case law that took. Actually happened prior to Dodd Frank. So the case law has nothing to do with it. And there was case law on both sides. So the case law in Dodd Frank, there is none. So cme, we will be litigating this issue. Just so you know, I'm letting you know that right now and that litigation will be arriving tomorrow at the CFTC on the decision they made.
Melissa Lee
So let's be clear, the CME is suing the cftc.
Terry Duffy
That's as clear as it comes. And we'll say yes.
Melissa Lee
Okay. I'm curious. I get the point on innovative, I guess, you know, it's in the Eye of the beholder. But so is, so is, you know, whether or not it is the best product for the user. I mean, some people might say zero day to expiration products are not, you know, should not be listed either, they are dangerous, etc. I mean, plenty of arguments can be made about a lot of products. I'm just curious though, Terry, you know, if this is coming and perpetual futures are approved for crypto already, are you considering yourself dealing in perpetual futures offering that product?
Terry Duffy
You know, as I clearly said on your show last week, Melissa, in which I appreciate you giving me the time, I clearly outlined how if you were to be in the commercial hedging business like CME Group is, the perpetual futures do not work. You need to have a forward contract. Perpetual futures are a funding rate tied to the spot market. So they do not work in a forward hedging market for all the products that CME has. 80 to 90% of my business is institutional driven. As I said, There's 133 million open positions with $300 billion of money protecting those positions. So they don't work for those products. They might work for the speculator who wants a contract just to speculate on, but they truly do not work for the true hedger that has a fiduciary legal obligation to the people whose money they are entrusted with.
Melissa Lee
What do you want to accomplish with the lawsuit, Terry?
Terry Duffy
Well, there's a couple of things. First of all, under the Dodd Frank act, and this will all be laid out in the lawsuit under the Dodd Frank act, it clearly defines what a swap is and what a future is. And when there's two parties exchanging payments to each other, that's deemed a swap. So if anything, if anything, these products that he supposedly approved as futures are not futures, they would be swaps. And if there are swaps, Melissa, as you know, there's different requirements in order to participate in the swap market, such as five day margin, such as swap requirements for the users to register as swap dealers. There's a lot that goes into the Dodd Frank legislation. So the case law, as I stated, was pre Dodd Frank. It had nothing to do, so he circumvented the Dodd Frank Act.
Melissa Lee
So basically, I mean, if, if it plays out in your favor, Terry, it sounds like Kalshee would, in other prediction markets would not be able to offer these products unless they became swap dealers themselves.
Terry Duffy
Correct. They would have to list them as swaps. If that's the way it came out. I still believe that he is in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. But again, my suit will be based around the Dodd Frank act of 2010, not the Commodity Exchange act of 2000.
Tim Seymour
So, Terry, I get calls. I get Twitter. This perp thing scared Terry. He's going to retire because of it. And my response to them is my instincts suggest that this was planned in the fall of last year when you started talking about this. Lynn's been there since 2006. So speak to the genesis of this and sort of quell any concerns.
Terry Duffy
You know, Guy, thank you for that. And I almost backed out of putting this release out this morning when I did hear some, after I heard those calls. Because if you know me, I'm always up for a good battle. I've never shied away from one. And I won't shy away from this. I've been working on this plan with my board for eight months. I didn't start working on it two weeks ago Friday, when there was a quick approval of a perpetual future. So this takes a lot of time, a lot of fiduciary. This is the biggest obligation of any public company board, and my board took it very seriously. Lynn Fitzpatrick is going to be a dynamite CEO here at CME Group, and I will help transition to her over the next year and a half as I'll be here. But to say that I would. I'm concerned about what's going on right now is laughable at best. And I think anybody who knows me knows that I do not back away from anything. So I'm prepared, and I will be prepared to go through this. And that's why I wanted to announce on your show that we will be filing this litigation tomorrow, because we are not taking this lightly. I'm not trying to pick a fight with anybody. I'm just trying to state the law. So it's not personal, just trying to state the law. Melissa asked me the question. What I list is I need to understand what the rules of the road are first before I list anything. And I don't think the rules of the road are very clear. There's a lot of, I would say, misrepresentation of certain facts.
Melissa Lee
Do you think the CFTC is misrepresenting certain facts?
Terry Duffy
I do, Melissa, to an extent. They said on your show last week that they created a rule around 24 7. They did not create a rule around 24 7. There's a handful of things that the chairman has said, his own words that are just not true. He said that as it relates to how the Commodity Exchange act defines the futures contract, there are a lot of things that are. And he also suggested, as I said earlier, that there's case law to suggest that his decision was the right one. Well, he forgot to look at Dodd Frank and what that legislation said. So I think there's a lot of problems here. So, yes, I do.
Melissa Lee
And Terry, I just want to ask this question because, I mean, I think that this is the question that, you know, if you listen to Chair Selleck's interview, he made it seem like your exchange, the other exchanges, they are the incumbent exchanges afraid of losing business. So as a, you know, if you're a shareholder of CME and you're listening to this and you're hearing that the CME Group is not scared of these products, but you're going to spend the money to fight this products, what are you protecting for the shareholder then?
Terry Duffy
I am protecting the integrity of the marketplace. Melissa, as I said on your show two weeks ago, I think that's really important for the future. So I don't operate on a 24 in 24 hours and call it the next day. We operate looking for the long run about how markets should operate. As I said, I've been working on these markets for over 30 years. These are all speculative contracts that they are putting forth. These are not institutionally fiduciary contracts that people can mitigate and manage risk on. I heard what Anthony said yesterday that, you know, we got to get comfortable with certain things, even if we don't like them. I'm happy to get comfortable with them, but we need to understand the rules of the road and what they mean. And if they circumvent acts of Congress. Well, I can't get comfortable with that because why would I want to have my clients going into a product that Congress said is a swap, not a future? So I think there's a lot of things out there yet, Melissa, that need to be answered. So I think it's worth us putting up to get clarity. I think that the markets grow when there's regulatory clarity and, and I think that they go the other way when there's regulatory uncertainty. And I think that's what's going on right now. I think there's regulatory uncertainty. So we are willing to move forward. I'm willing to move forward to create regulatory clarity.
Melissa Lee
Terry, it is always a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining us. You're not stepping down till March, so we do expect to see you back.
Terry Duffy
Melissa Lee, I just want to know, can I have Scaramouche seat when I come next time?
Melissa Lee
You can have a vest.
Terry Duffy
I won't Wear a puffer vest. Deal.
Melissa Lee
Terry. Thank you. Terry Duffy.
Terry Duffy
Thanks, Melissa.
Melissa Lee
CME CEO. He's putting up a fight. So it's not going out quiet, that's for sure.
Michael Kantopoulos
Well, yeah, and CME has gone from trading pits to, to electronic clicks. I mean, this is a, this is an entity that has evolved with markets and has innovated all along the way. So I don't think they're running scared. My guess is they're protecting the marketplace.
Melissa Lee
Place much more Fast Money right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Lionsgate Studios falling 6% today. Netflix denying reports it is interested in buying the media company. Lionsgate Stock Popping nearly 14% on Tuesday on the acquisition rumors. Netflix meantime, falling another 2% today, down nearly 21% percent over the past two months. What do you think of Netflix these days?
Karen Feynman
Well, I'm long, I think, sad for thoughts about Netflix, the Lionsgate thing. I don't know why they should deny it. You should just not be in the business of commenting either way because then if you don't comment, then people know that whatever is maybe happening. But all that aside, I still like the Netflix story. But I mean, I think at this multiple, which is below a March market multiple, where I still think, think that there is more to come from advertising subscriber, you know, pay subscribers and the advertising business itself and that the cost of their content could come down. So I like it. But that has not been the right place to be for a while. And I've been there for a while.
Michael Kantopoulos
Yeah, I thought getting along on the, on the breakdown of the WBD deal was the right move. And so I made that move and, and I again, I feel very comfortable owning Netflix here. I think there's a lot to articulate in terms of really what the catalysts are in the story beyond what we already knew. But I agree, you can own it here with some confidence that the valuation makes sense.
Tim Seymour
Lion Gates, I think with this smoke, there's fire we talked about, I think in the fall into early this year, the next logical acquisition after, you know, the Warner Brothers, Paramount, Netflix thing, it's going to be Lionsgate and it's acted in kind. Obviously it's sold off today, but I think you stayed along.
Melissa Lee
Lionsgate up next, final trades, Final trade time.
Guy Adami
MICHAEL Kantopoulos, Value stocks have outperformed the s and P500 by about 6% this year. Kind of sneaky. I think that's going to continue as you get broadening value all the way.
Michael Kantopoulos
TIM with us tonight in the studio, the next leaders of Wall street, the capital markets and fixed income interns at Stifel.
Terry Duffy
All right, there they are.
Michael Kantopoulos
Oh, and Microsoft.
Terry Duffy
There they are.
Steve Liesman
Microsoft.
Karen Feynman
Yes. Sold the rest of my meta puts, which is like getting lost.
Dan Nathan
Dan yeah, I love Terry Duffy's fight here, down 23% in a couple of months. I think CME looks great now.
Tim Seymour
We'll be at the parade tomorrow if you want to see her
Melissa Lee
final trade, please. Alibaba thank you for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
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SoFi Narrator
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Episode Title: An Overhaul of Fed Operations… And Terry Duffy Steps Down as CME Group CEO
Host: Melissa Lee
Panel: Tim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Michael Kantopoulos
Special Guests: Steve Liesman (CNBC Senior Economics Reporter), Gerard Cassidy (RBC Capital), Terry Duffy (CME Group CEO)
This episode focuses on a historic shift at the Federal Reserve with Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, the CME Group’s surprise leadership change as legendary CEO Terry Duffy announces his resignation and lawsuit against the CFTC, as well as key moves across major sectors — with insights on tech, China, big banks, and value vs. growth investing.
Main Topic: Kevin Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair — a markedly hawkish tone, outlined operational overhauls, and the decision to leave rates unchanged — and immediate ripple effects across markets.
Memorable Quote:
“New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is coming out of the gate with a hawkish message... The committee is strongly pledging to deliver price stability.”
— Steve Liesman [02:17]
[03:50] Host Melissa Lee challenges whether Warsh was truly hawkish or simply channelling the consensus.
Steve Liesman: Warsh was “definitively hawkish,” citing the lack of forward guidance — which puts extra weight on next week’s speeches by Fed officials.
Quote:
“He can give guidance or not give guidance, but the market’s going to find guidance and it's going to trade tomorrow no matter what the Fed Chair does.”
— Steve Liesman [04:09]
Karen Feynman: Notes surprise that the 10-Year didn’t react stronger, highlighting the sharp flattening between 2-Year and 10-Year treasuries.
Warsh reiterated commitment to a 2% inflation target and dismissed talk of raising the target before it’s achieved. [06:05]
Tim Seymour: Praises Warsh’s candor on inflation, calls him “enthusiastic” for addressing longstanding issues.
Quote:
“He’s flat out said we have a problem. And we’ve talked about that on this show for quite some time.”
— Tim Seymour [07:41]
Guy Adami:
“I thought Warsh did a fantastic job today. I thought he threaded the needle perfectly… the market needs a little bit of volatility to keep things in check.” [08:20]
Michael Kantopoulos: Expects more volatility and less transparency under Warsh; puts blame for inflation on years of accommodative Fed policy over fiscal policy.
Dan Nathan: Raises concern that a renewed hiking cycle could challenge high market valuations and break the market’s confidence if transparency wanes — referencing “fun” volatility reminiscent of the pre-Bernanke/Greenspan era.
Karen Feynman: Applauds Warsh’s decision to focus on the Fed’s “dual mandate” (not “handholding” the market), hints at possible clashes with politically sensitive administrations in future.
[14:54]
Brandon Gomez: Apple will raise product prices due to surging memory/storage chip costs, driven by AI demand — next iPhone Pro could see a $270 price hike.
Panel on impact:
[17:16]
Major banks hit all-time highs but faded on post-Fed curve flattening.
Guest: Gerard Cassidy (RBC):
Citi and JP Morgan discussed as favorite positions; Citi seen as having more technical upside if it executes, but easy money may already be made.
[24:38]
Bernstein turns bullish on Microsoft after its move to rent cloud capacity signals strong future demand; Microsoft’s AI is reliant on cloud partners (e.g., GitHub, possible integration of Chinese open-source models).
Panel debates:
“If it gets cheaper, it’s just going to be commoditized and it’s why I own Apple.”
— Michael Kantopoulos [27:14]
Karen Feynman: Software pressures are weighing on Microsoft, despite broader IGV rally weeks prior.
[30:06]
[33:34]
Notable Quotes:
“There is no real innovation at all... It’s just a replica of a futures contract, except it doesn't expire.”
— Terry Duffy [33:49]
“CME, we will be litigating this issue… litigation will be arriving tomorrow at the CFTC.”
— Terry Duffy [35:38]
“I am protecting the integrity of the marketplace… we need to understand the rules of the road and what they mean. If they circumvent acts of Congress, well, I can't get comfortable with that.”
— Terry Duffy [42:00]
Panel Reaction:
The episode adeptly captured a transition moment for the Fed, with Kevin Warsh signaling operational overhaul and hawkish resolve, leaving markets re-pricing risk and the panel debating implications for volatility, transparency, and the possibility of a new “old normal.” In parallel, CME Group CEO Terry Duffy’s bombshell resignation and direct legal challenge to the CFTC’s new futures landscape marks a pivotal turn for US financial markets. The panel’s candor and in-the-moment analysis balanced these tectonic shifts, with actionable takes on banks, tech giants, inflation, and global equities — underscored by their signature mix of skepticism and wit.