← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Apple, Amazon Report Results… And Jamie Dimon Weighs In On Markets, Fed 7/31/25
00:43:47
Big tech results continue to filter in, as Apple and Amazon both report. The impact on the broader tech space, and what one top analyst sees in store for the companies. Plus JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon weighing in on markets, the Fed, regulation, and more. Where he sees stocks heading next, and his take on Fed independence, as the Trump-Powell drama continues following the central bank’s latest rate decision. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:01]
Melissa Lee
Fidelity Trading Dashboard brings live data, news.
- [00:03]
Steve Kovach
And charts into one screen so you can build and place trades. Better start for free@fidelity.com TradingDashboard Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member Nyse SIPC.
- [00:17]
Karen Feinerman
On WhatsApp, your personal messages stay private between you and whoever you send them to. So things like the passport numbers for your honeymoon stay between you and your fiance. And that video call for your gran's 80th stays in the family. Even your streaming password stays between you and your college roommates, who still ask for it every week in your group chat. Because on WhatsApp, your personal messages are yours. No one else can see or hear them, not even us. WhatsApp message privately live from the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Another earnings palooza. Apple, Amazon, Coinbase and more, all out with results in just the last hour. We are dialed into the calls bringing you all the action. And diamond on the Record, the CEO of JP Morgan sitting down with our Leslie Picker to talk markets, the economy, trade and more. We've got all the headlines from that exclusive interview. Plus pharma stocks taking a hit after the president calls for lower drug prices. A buzzkill for Budweiser as customers pass on the pints. And Figma flies the newest stock on the block more than tripling in its first day on the market. What to say about the appetite for IPOs, we will debate that. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Bono and Ison and Steve Grasso. And we start off with monster night of earnings. Two more members of the Max 7, Coinbase, Roku and Reddit all on the move. Tenaya McKeel is watching Coinbase. Mackenzie Seagalas is digging in on Amazon's numbers. But we start off with Steve Kobach who's got all the details on Apple rising although off the best sessions, at best levels of the session, I should say after posted its best revenue growth in nearly four years. Steve, what's the latest?
- [01:57]
Steve Kovach
Yeah, this is just a killer quarter here, Mel, for Apple just beating expectations by a long shot here. EPS was a beat $57 compared to a $43 revenue, $94 billion. That's 10% growth and like you said, best growth since the December 2021 quarter when we were in the middle of the pandemic and everyone is out there buying a Bunch of Apple products, iPhone revenue is up more than 13% to 44.58 billion. Also smashing expectations and services just humming along here, continuing to grow like crazy. $27.42 billion. Street was looking for 26.8 billion and China, it is growing again 4% to $15.37 billion. I chatted with CEO Tim Cook about all of these results and specifically on China. He told me part of what contributed to that was the government subsidies that helps for the lower end iPhones, giving some credit towards those. Plus there's that JD.com shopping holiday that offered some discounts. Also talk to Cook about the tariff impact and that idea of pull forward demand for iPhones contributing to that big record quarter. He told me, quote, on the buy, buying ahead relative to worrying about prices and so forth and tariffs. We did see some evidence of that in the early part of the quarter. We would estimate it to be about 1 point of the 10 points of company growth. And then of course we had to talk about artificial intelligence and all the investment we've been seeing from Apple's peers like Microsoft yesterday, Amazon today. What he told me was we're significantly increasing investment. I'm not giving you an exact number today about what that means, but we significantly increase in the June quarter and we're significantly increasing in the September quarter. He later told me that is for both talent, the artificial intelligence talent wars we've been seeing with Metta and others and of course compute chips and other servers and so forth. And then on the M and A front with artificial intelligence, you know, there's been a lot of talk about Apple potentially acquiring its way into this artificial intelligence moment. He told me Apple's acquired seven startups so far this year, not all necessarily AI companies. Also telling me, quote, none of those have been huge in terms of dollar amount, but we're open to M and A. That accelerates our roadmap and so we're not closing anything off there. By the way, the call just got started. Cook told me to expect some more comments on how the tariffs impacted the quarter and what they expect for the rest of the year on the tariff front meltdown.
- [04:28]
Karen Feinerman
All right, Steve, keep us posted on that. Steve Kovach out in Cupertino, what do we make of this quarter? What do we make about the commentary that 1 point of 10 points of growth was from pull forward as opposed to the other nine points and also the fact that they're not breaking out their AI spend as the others are. Karen?
- [04:46]
Tim Seymour
Well, the one point of ten. Well, I First sort of wonder how do you know? How do you know what is a pull forward? Do you have to ask sign up as a pull forward buyer? I don't really know if that is the case. Let's say they do know then I think that's pretty good. That's better than I thought it would be. So I mean it was a nice beat for iPhone. Some beat, some less on on some of the other hardware. Nice beat on services. So I'm surprised, I mean it wasn't like the stock was on fire going in. So this is somewhat of a muted response to what was far better than.
- [05:20]
Karen Feinerman
Feared Core and it's not like it, I'm an Apple fan. Right. It's not like it got any boost either in today's session on the back of yesterday's earnings as a lot of the other tech stocks did. So. Right. So it went in kind of flat. Here it is, it's up a percent. I mean lots can change on this conference call but what do you make of it so far?
- [05:36]
Bono
Battle and I think it was a solid chord. In fact I think if they had even doubled that pull forward number and Instead it was 2 to even 3%, you would still be be positively relieved by the fact that you're actually seeing some revenue growth here.
- [05:47]
Tim Seymour
I thought they said 10% 1 of.
- [05:50]
Karen Feinerman
10 and I'm saying 10 points.
- [05:51]
Tim Seymour
I'm saying you're even 2 of 3 of 10.
- [05:53]
Steve Kovach
I said even if we're.
- [05:54]
Bono
Even if it were 20 to 30% of that number, I still think you'd be in a positive situation and positively surprised. And all of this still comes without them essentially having a significant AI push. Now they mentioned the seven startups that they bought. I don't know to what extent those are involved there, but at least does show that they are somewhat open to AI via acquisition. And I probably brings forth, you know, probably a little bit more heat around that perplexity purchase discussion. I think definitely kind of restoring some momentum back in China also clearly you still have this 8,900 million dollars overhang from tariffs there. But I think you're seeing that offset. That's where I would say the tariff pull forward might be positive. In fact you're finding a way to actually offset what we've all now accepted as being a negative. So and then the last thing I'll say is the services revenue. So that address iPhones, the services revenue, which is the other kind of key driver in terms of multiple expansion here, a multiple defense. I think that was also, what is it, 13 17%. So again I think this is firing on all cylinders for something that's kind of been the laggard of the Max 7. And I'm with the the rest of you in terms of thinking that I would have expected a lot more upside here and I think you likely will see that follow through once we kind of get past the overhang that was the conference call with Powell and probably lowering of odds of that September rate cut.
- [07:10]
Steve Kovach
I think the overhang is that people thought that Apple's growth days are behind them. So if think about what stalled China. So China's back to growth. I spend September and June as Bono had said. IPhone sales, Mac sales services, all double digit. This is going to be a hell.
- [07:30]
Melissa Lee
Of a catch up trade going into.
- [07:31]
Steve Kovach
The end of the year.
- [07:32]
Karen Feinerman
Oh, you sound very bullish.
- [07:34]
Steve Kovach
I wish I could redo my acronym. It would be like Baxter instead of Boxer. But I just think that people just think about every analyst you're looking for really extraordinary growth companies. Now Apple's not on that list, right. But if you look at 2.4 billion installed base, how can it not be on that list? There's so many things that they could actually convert. So whether it's M and A for AI or if they go full bore and go right into Quantum, that's quite a leap. Well, it's because I own a Quantum stock I'd like them to buy.
- [08:09]
Karen Feinerman
Clever pun. Yeah, I didn't realize it. Let's say, let's say the pull forward is not repeatable and let's say that in the back half of the year there are price increases and let's say that there is no AI product because right now we don't know of an AI product that would spur any sort of super cycle. Tim, do you think that Apple can repeat this? I think that the stock reaction tells you that there is some skepticism about the ability to repeat this kind of growth going forward given the headwinds.
- [08:37]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, there's no question about that. And this is a catch up trade implies all of that. And I think we have this conversation regularly and my view has been that there's nothing in the price on AI. So why isn't that good news ultimately when the stock's been able to weather a lot of dynamics? Technically I think the chart holds well somewhere around $200 and but what we heard today are a couple of things that I think are very encouraging. The record services revenue is something that I think will continue and with the spend on capex in June and September quarters is something we can begin to at least estimate where more of that will go higher. I think the US telco kind of equipment sales and some it's. That's the best number in terms of buying from US telcos in the last six or seven quarters. I think that's bullish. I think the higher ASP on the 17 of $50 or more is very good. And we saw a gross margin that beat and that's a dynamic that I think also people have been concerned about. Apple is not giving this phone away. They are not cutting their margin. They are not doing anything. If anything, they're going in the other direction. I love that as a shareholder we know about the underperformance as a trader and as an investor. I like this name here.
- [09:51]
Karen Feinerman
All right, let's get to Amazon. Meantime, the stock is lower if the company gave weak guidance for operating income in the current quarter. The conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. Mackenzie Seagalas Got the latest here, Mac.
- [10:02]
Mackenzie Seagalas
Hey there, Mel. Despite beating on revenue and earnings, Amazon's weak operating income guidance for the current quarter rattled investors who want to see the company's massive A and cloud investments start to pay off. Amazon plans to spend up to $100 billion this year expanding its cloud infrastructure and software. CEO Andy Jassy is on the call now and we are waiting to see whether they up that CapEx number after Microsoft raised its spending target to $120 billion for the current fiscal year. Now most of that money is being spent on infrastructure and it's going into Amazon's profit engine. It is still very much the market leader and it did beat on revenue growth at near percent. But it now faces fierce competition from Microsoft's Azure and Google Cloud, who accelerated 39% and 32% in the most recent period, respectively. Now these platforms have become the backbone of AI computing, with demand so strong that even Microsoft has struggled to handle all of Open AI's workloads. And for the second quarter in a row, Amazon flagged tariffs and shifting trade policies as potential risks, even as its retail business beat in online sales and North America revenue. Listening closely for more on possible tariff headwinds as that call continues. Mel.
- [11:21]
Karen Feinerman
All right, Matt, keep us posted. Thank you. Mackenzie Segalos in San Francisco for U.S. third quarter operating profit guidance at the midpoint of the range. That was below consensus. That's a huge.
- [11:32]
Tim Seymour
I don't think it matters.
- [11:33]
Karen Feinerman
You don't think it matters?
- [11:34]
Tim Seymour
I don't.
- [11:34]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, they've never been good.
- [11:36]
Tim Seymour
That's not what they do. They're not good at.
- [11:38]
Karen Feinerman
So it's the Azure. It's the Azure. I mean, I think it's the Azure, it's Microsoft was gangbusters and Amazon was good.
- [11:46]
Tim Seymour
No, I think the. Well, there's two parts of it. What they talk about operating income for next quarter. They've never been good at telling you what I don't think they care so much on that. To me, the one thing I want to understand. So AWS was good, not good enough, right? Not quite good enough. Given the ones that we've seen before this, I'm wondering why I have to go through why the revenue was up and yet operating income was up a lesser percentage than the revenue. What's going on there in expenses? Is there something else there? So definitely want to hear the call for that. The retail part, which is not the biggest part of the story, was pretty good. North America was good. International, which is the smallest of any of the parts, was quite good. But that's not really the story here. It's AWS and the spend and I've got to get a better handle on that. But I'm not concerned about that guidance.
- [12:35]
Bono
Yeah, kind of piggybacking off your point, Karen. I really think us was the focus here, should be and I think 17 and a half, 18% is actually quite strong growth, but it's half of what the peer group has delivered and I think with that backdrop, it kind of presents itself as disappointing. I think in a vacuum, you perhaps you don't see it as such, but them being only 20% of US or cloud growth only being 20% of revenue, but 60% of operating income, I think that might be why investors are keying on because that's really your growth engine towards that margin expansion there. And if you have some hiccup there, again, we have to kind of read the fine print to understand what might be the hiccup. As you mentioned, revenue not kind of tying out to that. To that OPA income number. Barring something there I am with you. I'm not sure this really matters. The last thing I'll say is free cash flow is down significantly and clearly that's going to be tied into CapEx. But you're looking at tracking at 53, 54 billion in terms of last year's TTM. And this trailing 12 months is only about 18 or 19 billion. So clearly they are continuing to wrap up, ramp up that capex. And if those margins, the operating margins are not kind of marching upward in tandem with that spin, that's what's going to raise Eyebrows and perhaps cause people to drill down a bit more.
- [13:48]
Steve Kovach
I think people, as you said or someone else said, the growth engine behind Amazon story and if their market share has dropped recently from 31% down to 29% and Azure is growing, they're at 21, 23. Google's at around 12. They're nervous that their golden egg is going to start to crack. So you have to decide did I run this stock? You look back to February, there's a double top scenario that could be building and the top was 242 and a half ish. So we're not there right now, but this could be a good time to take some profits in Amazon.
- [14:27]
Karen Feinerman
How concerned are you, Tim, about this quarter?
- [14:31]
Melissa Lee
I think the US miss from consensus, even though the growth itself in absolute terms was fine, was closer to 17, 18% on just the miss on the expectations. So the 17 and a half percent versus wherever the street was and that's what it comes down to margin us is has to be coming in, has to be coming in for all of them. And so I still think it's a very interesting story. I continue to believe that it's cheap relative to its history, that the E commerce business is actually interesting. More interesting than it gets credit for. Back to where these stocks have performed, which is where Steve was talking. Excuse me. Amazon has outperformed Apple by 25% in the last three months. It's outperformed Apple by 30% in the last calendar year. So not that a lot of the mega cap techs haven't outperformed Apple, but. But Amazon's been a strong performer. So it's always that relative bar to where we've come from. There's nothing wrong with these numbers. We do want to hear about spend but I get a little worried about margins across the cloud space for all of them. It's wildly competitive and it's getting more competitive.
- [15:42]
Karen Feinerman
All right, let's bring in Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. First take on the quarters. Gene, let's kick it off with Amazon since we were just talking about it. What's wrong with the quarter? What's wrong with these numbers in your.
- [15:52]
Gene Munster
View is what's wrong. The whisper was plus 20% growth. I thought it was going to be like 22%. They did the 17.5. Why this matters is that this of course is one of the focus areas because the profitability piece. But if you look at the gap between what happened with aws, Azure and Google Cloud over the last three months, they have been losing share over the past couple years. They lost at a greater pace in the June quarter. That's a problem. And just given the tailwinds, I mean we had blowout Google Cloud and Azure numbers and the fact that we basically had similar growth in September, in June versus March, 17ish percent growth. I mean that, that's, that says something. The guidance, I mean just to put in the perspective of how much the street focuses on us, their revenue guidance for June, if you take the top end of their guidance, which typically they exceed, that means 13% growth. For September the street was at 9%. I mean it was a great guide. And the operating income guide, they always guide low. You got to look at the top end. If you look at the top end of the operating income, they would guide it higher. So I think this really speaks to. It's all about aws and I don't know what's wrong with it. I don't know why it shouldn't be growing faster given all the goodness that's happening in the cloud side.
- [17:16]
Tim Seymour
Gene, it's Karen, thanks for being on. So getting at the heart of the matter there, is there an explanation that would make you more comfortable? What's the one that. Oh, that makes me comfortable. Demand's still there. I just have to gear up and spend and, and then it will fill in. The margins will improve or we're seeing a slowdown, pricing's under pressure.
- [17:37]
Gene Munster
Well again the tide is so much in AWS's favor. The one piece that we need to find out is how much of that performance was capacity constrained. They said in the March quarter that they were capacity constrained on AWS and that led to analysts expectations inching up for growth rates in the back half of the year. But that question I think ultimately is going to. My guess is they're going to say they're supply constrained. But even, I mean they would have to be really supply constrained to have justified that number. So I think there just is still something deeper here. I think the automation piece, there's so much goodness going on in their retail business. Gross margins are going up. Operating margins two years ago were 3 1/2 percent. They're 11.4% this quarter. I mean just a lot of good things in retail but I'm kind of tone deaf if I focus on the retail business. It's all about aws.
- [18:27]
Karen Feinerman
So what is, what do you suspect is going on with the AWB business? I mean is their product inferior? Is it, you know, I don't understand like what it could be Microsoft just, you know, marketing better. There's a better stack there. I don't know.
- [18:45]
Gene Munster
Yeah, I think that they're probably just doing a better job of integrating those AI models into the overall system. That's Azure. It's just been a cloud first company for Azure and I think that that probably is impacting it. Hard to say they should be benefiting. They wrote the playbook and now they're not seeing it.
- [19:06]
Karen Feinerman
You know, Barron's had a headline gene today or it was a line in an article. Today Microsoft is evolving into the world's most important company. And when you talk about how Microsoft is maybe superior now to AWS and inherently superior to Alphabet, given its positioning, do you agree with that?
- [19:26]
Gene Munster
I mean, Microsoft's obviously important, but they're just not innovating at the same pace. I mean, Azure is. It's great, it's breathtaking what's going on there. But if you look at the breadth of what's going on, not only just in the public companies, but the big private companies, I think that you're going to see still a shifting of the guard. And I think ultimately just look at the growth rates. Microsoft guided to 18% revenue growth. I think that that's great, up from 14%. This is for their September quarter. But for a company to be like truly magnetic, I think that it's, I think it needs to be kind of in this mid to high 30% growth and that's probably not Microsoft.
- [20:04]
Karen Feinerman
All right, Jeanne, we'll check in with you in a bit. We want to go back to Steve Kovach who's got more from Apple. Steve.
- [20:11]
Steve Kovach
Hey there, Mel. Yeah, I was just listening to the earnings call and Tim Cook gave us more color on the tariff impact for Apple. So for the June quarter it was an $800 million in tariff related costs. They said they had originally guided towards 900 million. So a little bit better than expected. As for the September quarter, it's going to go up. They're now expecting $1.1 billion in tariff related costs, warning that this is assuming and all the rates stay the same as they are and there are no further changes. Obviously Tomorrow is the August 1st deadline. We might see some rate changes for different countries and including China, Vietnam and others and India that do impact Apple. And also Cook saying on the call about tariffs, they're not going to be guiding beyond the September quarter just because of all the volatility we've been seeing in these changing tariff rates and the whole back and forth there. So $1.1 billion, that's the headline number for tariff related costs for the September quarter. Apple's guiding towards right now.
- [21:10]
Karen Feinerman
Mel, have they talked at all about how they're going to mitigate those costs in terms of, I mean there's, there's a wide belief and expectation probably that iPhone costs will go higher, at least by 50 bucks a phone.
- [21:23]
Steve Kovach
Yeah, we haven't gotten there yet. I imagine that will come up in the Q and A a little bit. But yes, that is one lever they do have to pull is obviously increasing costs. We heard a quarter ago, of course, you know, shifting some of the supply from India into the United States. India of course has that lower tariff rate. Still not enough supply coming out of India to fulfill all the demand we have here in the US So there's still got to be a little bit workarounds there. So we'll see as the call goes on if they do talk about price increases and things like that. I would be a little surprised if they talked about that before the big September announcement of the next crop of iPhones though. Melissa.
- [21:58]
Karen Feinerman
Right, Steve, thanks. Steve Kovac. Tim, what do you make of that $1.1 billion the hit because of tariffs in September?
- [22:09]
Melissa Lee
In absolute terms it sounds extraordinary. In relative terms, I'm not sure where the street was on this, but I do think there's still a lot of open ended dynamics. But you can't tell me that in some level Apple hasn't priced in concerns around China, concerns around other parts of the tariff dynamics. Isn't weren't they one of the first ones to get to get crushed? Have they really received much of a tailwind? So you know the headlines in terms of the relative expectation? Frankly, I have no idea. I can tell you. I'm sure the stock is priced at it.
- [22:44]
Karen Feinerman
Yep. All right. We're going to keep an eye on the Amazon and Apple conference calls. They are getting underway right now about 22 minutes and the headlines and all the other after hours action straight ahead. But first, a flurry of pharma letters. How President Trump is tackling drug prices and the names he is targeting to make the cuts do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in two.
- [23:07]
Melissa Lee
With leading networking and connectivity, advanced cybersecurity and expert partnership. Comcast business helps turn today's enterprises into engines of modern business. Powering the engine of modern business powering possibilities.
- [23:20]
Karen Feinerman
Restrictions apply at Capella University. Learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University? Learn more@capella.edu A key July jobs report.
- [23:41]
Steve Kovach
Is trade uncertainty impacting the economy and the labor market. What the data could mean for future.
- [23:47]
Melissa Lee
Rate cuts, employment numbers and analysis. Squawkbox tomorrow, 8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC.
- [23:57]
Karen Feinerman
Welcome back to Fast Money. Eli Lilly, Novo, Nordisk, Pfizer, Merck and Regeneron dropping today after President Trump posted letters to them and 12 other drugmakers directing them to cut prices within 60 days. In May, Trump signed an executive order to bring US Drug costs more in line with other countries or what's known as most favored nation policy. Our Angelica Peebles has got more on this. Angelica?
- [24:19]
Mackenzie Seagalas
Hey, Melissa. Well, the White House is saying that the proposals it received in response to that May executive order fell short. And from now on, President Trump will only accept actions that provide immediate relief from drug prices. So the letters outline four actions that Trump wants to see drug makers act on. He wants them to provide most favored nation pricing to Medicaid, guarantee the US Will receive the best price for newly launched drugs, raise prices overseas and reinvest those higher revenues into lowering domestic prices as well as selling drugs directly. Patients at most favored nation pricing now bullet number two, guaranteeing low prices for all new drugs in all markets, Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial. To me, that's the most interesting piece of this, and it's hard to see how drug makers agree to that since you would essentially cap your prices right out of the gate and or you would limit your sales overseas. And yes, this is all voluntary. These are not mandates. But clearly this issue is not going away, and that's what this signals. And just the threat of drug pricing reform is weighing on pharma stocks, GSK, AstraZeneca, Novo, and Merck among the names getting hit the hardest today. And so this certainly does not help the sentiment around Pharma.
- [25:31]
Karen Feinerman
Melissa the letter seemed interesting to me, Angelica, in light of that EO back in May, since the EO says if not if no significant progress is made, it directs the HHS to go ahead and create some sort of policy that would lower prices through a DTC program, for instance, as well as possibly allowing the importation of medicine into the United States. So where does this letter fall? I mean, is that is this like the last warning before HHS actually steps in?
- [26:00]
Mackenzie Seagalas
You know, it's hard to know exactly what the last straw is here, but it's certainly an escalation, at least in rhetoric. But again, these are all voluntary actions that the president is asking companies to make, giving them another 60 days. Now I have heard that companies did go in. You know, they talked to the White House, they talked to this administration and, and those were difficult discussions. You know, this White House wants to see lower drug prices. This most favored nation across the board, if you remember Trump 1.0 really was focused on Medicare. And now from what I've heard, this administration wants it all. They want most favored nation in Medicare, Medicaid and also commercial. Now actually making that happen is difficult because they don't have the authority to really affect drug prices across the board. So maybe you are seeing this administration saying that public pressure could work. We've already seen companies like Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer, they went ahead and they announced this DTC program for Eliquis, that's a really popular blood thinner saying that people who are having a hard time paying for that drug, they can get it at a lower price if they get it directly from the manufacturers. Obviously you've seen lots of announcements in terms of manufacturing in the US as we hear these tariff threats. So maybe the thinking is that, you know, this public pressure could be one way instead of just going through and doing policy, which of course is much harder.
- [27:19]
Karen Feinerman
Right. Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles so much facing the pharma industry between this, you know, the push to lower drug prices, to tariffs, to a huge patent cliff. Tim and yet you find value here.
- [27:36]
Melissa Lee
Well there's the forward PS on a bunch of these companies are not terribly cheap. Let's be clear. I think the underperformance in terms of the stocks we well well documented the xlv Health Care ETF has underperformed the S&P by 24% since the market lows. So as the market has rebounded, obviously health care is underperformed because it really still does have, it had still a cloud of tariff dynamic hanging over it. But yes, some, some of these, these macro dynamics with Medicare. So I do think that ultimately this is a place where in terms of investment flows we've been totally underperforming but also under allocated. I feel pretty comfortable owning these companies in the medium long term. Pharma companies have been through this before. I don't think this time is that different. Although we have not had the tariff headlines. The places I feel probably most comfortable in there I think JJ has a diversified business, consumer products Pharma, Medtech and you know I like my pharma, my Pfizer.
- [28:40]
Karen Feinerman
All right, coming up, more after hours action shares the coinbase on the move. After reporting results, the details and numbers out of that quarter. Next. Next, you're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ markets at in Times Square. Back right after this. Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more@capella.edu.
- [29:29]
Melissa Lee
A key July jobs report.
- [29:31]
Steve Kovach
Is trade uncertainty impacting the economy and the labor market. What the data could mean for future.
- [29:37]
Melissa Lee
Rate cuts, Employment numbers and analysis squawk box tomorrow, 8:30 Eastern and streaming on CNBC. Plus.
- [29:47]
Karen Feinerman
We'Re getting some guidance out of Apple's conference call. Let's get back to Steve Kobach who's got the details. Steve?
- [29:53]
Steve Kovach
Yeah, Mel, Apple just guided some revenue growth or top line revenue growth, that is for the September quarter, expecting mid to high single digit percentage point growth. That's kind of in line with what we saw this quarter as well. Actually a little less than maybe. And then on the gross margin side, 46 to 47%. That of course, is including the $1.1 billion in estimated tariff costs that I just told you about a few minutes ago. So that could imply that they're going to eat some of the costs as opposed to passing it on to the customers. But still, we're going to have to wait until September to find out what those new iPhones are actually going to cost before you can really make a call on that. You see shares up 3% though, now on that guide there, Mel.
- [30:36]
Karen Feinerman
Okay, Steve. Thanks, Steve Kovac. And we see Apple shares up by about 3%. We are also meantime getting capex numbers from Amazon. Let's get back to Mackenzie Seagalas for that Mac.
- [30:45]
Mackenzie Seagalas
Hey, Mel. So on the earnings call just now, Amazon CFO Brian Olusofsky said that the company is upping its capex spending target to $31.4 billion for the current quarter. He described that as reasonably representative of Amazon's quarterly capital investment rate for the back half of the year. So that annualizes to more than $118 billion when you factor in its Q1 spend of 24 billion. And this really underscores an unprecedented AI cloud arms race among those hyperscalers, with most of Amazon's investment aimed at expanding AI infrastructure for us. Remember, it was just last Week that Alphabet raised its annual CapEx target to 85 billion. Microsoft said yesterday that it's going to spend $30 billion this quarter alone, putting it on track to hit $120 billion in its new fiscal year. Mel.
- [31:36]
Karen Feinerman
All right, Mac, thanks. Mackenzie seagallos. So is this Karen telling you that they're raising guidance? The stock goes lower in the after recession because it's not raising.
- [31:46]
Tim Seymour
Oh, capex.
- [31:47]
Karen Feinerman
Sorry, sorry, sorry. Yeah, that it's not paying that we're not seeing the payoff from spend because.
- [31:54]
Tim Seymour
Everybody else for the moment at this quarter, yes.
- [31:56]
Karen Feinerman
Right. Looking at a time and time.
- [31:58]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [31:58]
Tim Seymour
It is at one moment in time. But yes, that is immediately where you think, wow, you're going to spend even more. And what if you know, the marginal dollar is not quite there.
- [32:06]
Karen Feinerman
All right, let's get to Coinbase now. It is dropping after missing revenue estimates for the second quarter. Conference call starting just moments ago. CNBC's Tanakh has got the numbers. Tenaya.
- [32:15]
Mackenzie Seagalas
Hey, Mal. Yeah. Coinbase shares a little lower after a gains in its subscription revenue failed to offset weaker trading volumes for the quarter. Now analysts were anticipating a weak quarter of trading following that exuberance that we saw in Q1 as traders at the time. We're still celebrating the new pro crypto Trump administration. Come April, however, Washington's focus shifted to tariffs. Speculative trading by retail slowed across centralized exchanges and then it was inflows in crypto ETFs and buying by crypto treasury companies that was really supporting prices at the time. Looking at subscriptions and services offerings, that includes stablecoins staking interest income 9% growth year over year to $656 million. But that was still short of analysts projection of about $706 million. Stablecoin revenue was a bright spot though, coming in line with expectations at about $332 million. Stablecoins of course were the big theme and driver in the crypto market in Q2. Mel.
- [33:14]
Karen Feinerman
All right, Tana, thank you. To name Akil, what do you think of this quarter?
- [33:20]
Bono
I think it was all right, but I understand, I understand the stock price drop significantly as it should be. I mean this thing trades like 65, 67 times. If you're not getting the revenue growth, there's really no reason to. I mean I think it's like nine or ten times price of sales. And the PG ratio is also somewhere around there as well. I can look down, but I don't. Those numbers are roughly in line. But essentially the point is that you're paying for growth and then the last thing is a lot of this exuberance and I got out of this thing a little bit too early. But a lot of the exuberance is around institutional adoption. If you actually break down the transactions, the retail presence is 10 12x what the institutional presence is. Until you see that gap starts to start to close, I think you might want to call into question whether the growth expectations can be sustained.
- [34:01]
Karen Feinerman
Coming up, banking on Jamie, what the JP Morgan CEO had to say about markets regulation, the Fed and more. The details from CNBC's exclusive interview when Fast Money returns back into welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks erasing early gains closing out in the red as gains in Microsoft and Meta fail to boost broader markets. The Dow falling more than 300 points. The S&P down nearly 0.4% its third straight day of losses. And the Nasdaq closing virtually unchanged. Both IT and the S and P hit intraday records early in the session. Some big morning movers, earnings movers, that is Cigna dropping more than 10% despite beating EPS and revenue estimates. Shake shack plummeting nearly 15% after giving weaker than expected revenue guidance for the current quarter. And Norwegian Cruise Line jumping more than 9% after reiterating full year guidance, citing strong demand. And some more after hours action. Reddit, Roku for solar, Clorox and rocket companies all topping EPS and revenue estimates. Meantime, Jamie Dimon speaking exclusively to our own Leslie Picker earlier today about tariffs, the Fed stablecoins and much more. She joins us now to break down everything we learned from the JP Morgan CEO.
- [35:13]
Mackenzie Seagalas
Leslie hey Melia, we covered a lot of ground during our interview here in Charlotte, North Carolina. I asked diamond about President Trump's latest attacks on Fed Chair Powell.
- [35:26]
Melissa Lee
I think Jay Powell is a professional. I think independence is important. I think actually independence keeps interest rates lower. If you actually look through the history of interest rates a little bit and just lowering short term rates doesn't necessarily have the effect you want in 10 year rates and we should be a little cautious. The president gets a chance to pick a new Fed chair in like eight months from now. So I think they're kind of doing the right thing.
- [35:48]
Mackenzie Seagalas
Dimon added that given the macro environment, he thinks the Fed will cut rates soon.
- [35:55]
Melissa Lee
The economy's been chugging along. We've been in that soft landing now for four or five years. You know, inflation still hasn't hit 2%, two and a half or 2 7. Now we look at it and I think, you know, if inflation comes down, the economy continues to do well. They'll probably reduce rates shortly.
- [36:11]
Mackenzie Seagalas
And on the cusp of the tariff deadline, Dimon said they're, quote, more moderate and thoughtful and more carefully done. He said people can deal with 15% tariffs.
- [36:21]
Karen Feinerman
Mel did he talk about when he's going to step down? Leslie?
- [36:27]
Mackenzie Seagalas
He didn't. He always, you know, talks about it's going to be a couple more years. It's going to be a couple more years. We have a great deal bench. It's up to the board. So if we didn't talk about succession in this interview, but it's something that is always top of mind.
- [36:42]
Karen Feinerman
Of course.
- [36:43]
Tim Seymour
I watched the whole thing twice. Leslie, excellent job. He did talk about how positive he is on regulation, sort of helping banks and many other companies. I mean, he seems rather pumped up on that. Is that your take?
- [36:58]
Mackenzie Seagalas
That was my take. Based on the conversation we had, I felt like he saw two really big unlocks for global growth, in particular growth in the United States. Number one, it's obviously AI. It's something we've been talking a lot about. And I asked him whether he thought AI would be a booster of growth or whether it would be a detractor. And he said, yes, people will lose their jobs, but he thinks it's going to be ultimately beneficial for productivity and efficiency gains. And then the second one was what you mentioned, this idea of reforming regulation and how much growth you can kind of generate just by removing some of the friction and processes related to permitting and other things that has just kind of held a lot of companies back. And so those I saw from that interview were kind of the two unlocks that he thinks will drive growth higher.
- [37:41]
Karen Feinerman
All right, Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker. Pretty nice bus. I mean, going to ride around.
- [37:48]
Steve Kovach
They have a stabilizer you could watch. And the camera doesn't shake. Yeah, it's happening. Done on an iPhone.
- [37:57]
Karen Feinerman
Terrible. Actually, it could be. Tim, what do you think of banks here?
- [38:02]
Melissa Lee
I like them. The trends he's talking about in terms of deregulation I think are even better in Europe. So I like European banks over US Banks. I like Barclays, I like Santander, I like Deutsche bank. All trade in ADRs. I'm long them in ideal, my international ETF, the valuations, the, the, the give back in terms of capital market share buybacks, you know, everything is superior. But the deregulation in Europe is even on a Delta that much more impressive to us. They've had a lot more regulation there. So I just think the trade is very interesting for moneycenter banks around the world. And I Would prefer Europe over us.
- [38:38]
Karen Feinerman
Coming up, another check on Apple and Amazon after hours. What we are hearing from the conference calls when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. Another check on Big Tech after the bell. Apple is trading higher by about 3%. This is close to after hour session highs. The company giving revenue guidance in the mid to high single digits for the current quarter. Meantime take a look at that decline in Amazon shares down 6% after giving us Capex expectations. Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster is back. He's been on the conference call. What do you make of capex going higher for Amazon? Is that going to fix the US problem?
- [39:21]
Gene Munster
It's the right thing. It should fix it. I'm surprised the stock didn't react differently. They said that the backlog for us was supply constrained and the backlog grew at 25%. That should be a proxy going forward about revenue growth. I talked about that 20% whisper number. The market didn't like it. The market is somehow viewing some of this increase in capex as maybe it's, it's up but not enough but ultimately is. It's a show me story around us in terms of Amazon.
- [39:50]
Steve Kovach
So Gene, when you, when you look at Apple saying that they might buy another company, could Amazon do the same thing? So if they're not getting the same bang for their buck that they were getting in capex could they just turn around and buy somebody?
- [40:03]
Gene Munster
They could but the dynamic around AI and Amazon is a little bit different because they're trying to really use AI to improve the shopping experience and ultimately improve logistics and make it improve the automation different than what like Matt is doing around superintelligence. Try to big big bottles what Google is doing, Microsoft even what Apple is doing. And so I think that the dynamic is a little bit different. They don't have as good of a get out of jail card through an M and A like Apple would. I do want to stress something with Apple and that I've covered this for a long time. What we're seeing right now the stock being up 3% on this guide that basically the revenue guide was 8 or 9% the street was at 3. Best quarter in four years I think really just speaks to the Shomi part of the story right now and part of that show me is AI. And I want to just mention is that Cook emphasized that when it comes to AI it's all about the new Siri next year. So what he is saying is that the bar, I'm not going to raise the bar. Don't have Any expectations for Apple and AI until this new Siri next year, there's going to be a lot of focus on that. I think the setup is really good for Apple in the next few quarters.
- [41:13]
Karen Feinerman
If they can get that right. I mean there might not be anything in Apple right now for something that is right, a Siri that is good. And I. But if Siri, if the new AI Siri or revamped or whatever you want to call it is not good, I would think that that would be even more detrimental for the story.
- [41:29]
Gene Munster
That's a big problem. But between now and then, there's no other mega cap company that has almost no bar when it comes to AI. Anything good they do is going to be viewed as a POS positive.
- [41:39]
Karen Feinerman
All right, Jean. Thank you, Jean. Coming up, Figma shares more than tripling in its trading debut. What is behind that move and what it says about the IPO market? That is next, more Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of design software company Figma soaring in their debut. The stock pricing at $33 a share opened at 85, closed up 250% at more than $115 a share shares are up again in the after hours by the way up by 19%. Bonwen, what does this say about, I don't know the IPO market or this area of the AI trade?
- [42:25]
Bono
I think it says the same thing about both which is that the demand is there, the euphoria is there and if there was ever a time to come to market with anything that's AI adjacent market. I remember Karen used to say listen, if there's anything that even cloud in the name you want to come to market. I think that is very much the case here. What I will say is that it seems like they've even internally expectations were massively exceeded around where the IPO printed as well as where his incentive compensation levels are are half of really where the stock is trading now. So I think if you have anything air related you want to come to.
- [42:55]
Tim Seymour
Market, clearly I think it sort of shows if you can buy an IPO up 205% you should. But that's not what I'm saying. That's not what I'm saying at all. I mean this is, you know, this is just crazy.
- [43:09]
Steve Kovach
There's a scarcity value, right?
- [43:10]
Melissa Lee
Everyone's talking about it.
- [43:11]
Steve Kovach
We talk about the same seven names all the time because that's where that's 30% of the market moves, that's 30% of the momentum. So it accounts for 100% of all the profits in the marketplace. So when you look at those companies, you're trying to discover the Mag 8, the Mag 9. So people want to buy, investors want to buy a name like this with hopes of it having a meteoric rise. But as we all do, you look for lock updates and you look for pullbacks and you look for entry points and that's what you should do with this.
- [43:43]
Karen Feinerman
Or you may have seen circle right chime financial and not COR we've on the first day but COR weave after and thought you know what I got to get in because this is where it is. Tim.
- [43:55]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, until, until the music stops. It's definitely, it's a lot of fun. I think this also though supports the idea and those products that are out there that give investors exposure to the private markets. And this, this Figma was was a well known pre IPO story where there was an opportunity for people to buy in the gray market. I just think that that the message really is that the private markets, when markets are at all time highs are even more exciting for high net worth investors.
- [44:27]
Karen Feinerman
Up next, final trades. Welcome back to Fast Money. Forbes out with its fifth annual 50 over 50 list. And among all the incredible women, there is one name that stood out to us. Our own Karen Fireman, included in the investment category which highlighted her firm, Metropolitan Capital, her book, her podcast, her recent stake in the New York Liberty, and a little mention of her favorite endeavor, being a part of the Fast Money family, of course. Congratulations, Karen.
- [44:57]
Tim Seymour
Thank you, thank you.
- [44:58]
Karen Feinerman
Time for the final trade. Tim.
- [45:01]
Melissa Lee
Buyer of Karen and also a.
- [45:03]
Karen Feinerman
Buyer of Apple Karen.
- [45:05]
Tim Seymour
Okay, I guess I'm long Karen, but my final trade is not figma.
- [45:10]
Karen Feinerman
Wait, Vonnewin.
- [45:13]
Bono
I think the volatility in copper is adversely affected FCX and I think it's overdone FCX on the long side.
- [45:19]
Steve Kovach
They've read it.
- [45:20]
Karen Feinerman
All right, thanks for watching Fast Money. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or in other medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such to view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Capella University, learning the right skills could make a difference. That's why our business programs teach you relevant skills you can take from the courseroom to the workplace. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.