Apple and Amazon Earnings Roll In, Eli Lilly Tanks, And Markets Brace For Jobs Report 5/1/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary
Title: Apple and Amazon Earnings Roll In, Eli Lilly Tanks, And Markets Brace For Jobs Report
Release Date: May 1, 2025

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Introduction

Hosted by Melissa Lee alongside CNBC’s expert roundtable—Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, and Guy Adami—"Fast Money" delves into the day's most significant financial news. This episode centers on the latest earnings reports from tech giants Apple and Amazon, the unexpected downturn of pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, and the market's anticipation of the forthcoming jobs report.

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Apple's Earnings Performance

Timestamp: [01:03] – [05:03]

Apple Inc. delivered a stellar earnings report, surpassing analyst expectations. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) stood at $1.65, beating the anticipated $1.63. Revenues reached $95.36 billion, exceeding the forecasted $94.66 billion. Notably, iPhone revenues climbed to $46.84 billion, a $1 billion increase year-over-year, up by 2%.

However, services revenue showed a more modest growth of 12%, slightly below expectations. This underperformance in services may be influencing Apple's stock performance post-earnings.

Steve Kovac highlighted, "Apple revenues were also a beat... Services though, just a teeny, teeny, teeny tiny mess here. Still up about 12% though that is likely what's hanging on the stock right now." ([01:58])

Tariffs and Supply Chain Management

A critical concern discussed was the impact of tariffs on Apple's supply chain. CEO Tim Cook addressed this, indicating a strategic shift in manufacturing locations to mitigate tariff effects. Specifically, over half of Apple's iPhones sold in the U.S. are now produced in India, with additional production in Vietnam for accessories like AirPods and Apple Watches.

Steve Kovac elaborated, "Assuming everything stays the way it is right now they're expecting a $900 million cost in the June quarter due to the tariffs." ([17:52])

Guidance and Market Reaction

Apple maintained its revenue growth guidance for the upcoming June quarter in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range, despite the $900 million tariff-related costs. However, the lack of clarity on the second half of the year left investors uneasy, leading to a nearly 3% drop in Apple’s stock during after-hours trading.

Tim Seymour remarked, "Cook's doing a great job in this quarter, and there's every reason to believe he'll continue to do a great job in the September and December quarters when we start getting through this." ([42:17])

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Amazon's Earnings Performance

Timestamp: [08:54] – [12:18]

Amazon reported an EPS beat of $0.23 and stronger-than-expected revenue. Despite this, growth in its cloud division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), fell short of expectations, leading to a 4% decline in the stock's after-hours performance. Overall U.S. growth was 17% year-over-year, slightly below the consensus of 17.6%.

Kate Rooney noted, "AWS on the cloud side, the whisper number was around 20% as far as expectations," indicating investor disappointment in the cloud segment's performance. ([08:54])

Guidance and Strategic Insights

Amazon's Q2 operating income guidance projected between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, slightly below the street's expectation of $17.6 billion. Despite this, revenue guidance was raised by 2%, which Tim Seymour interpreted as a sign of resilience amidst a challenging retail environment.

Tim Seymour commented, "They guided revenue up by 2% in a really tough retail market. So I see that as a net positive." ([14:07])

Artificial Intelligence and Future Investments

Andy Jassy, Amazon's CEO, emphasized the company's aggressive investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with AWS AI services growing at triple-digit rates year-over-year. He expressed optimism about transitioning from on-premise to cloud solutions, enhancing Amazon's market position.

Guy Adami highlighted, "All these stocks have in common though? And the broader market does as well... Is it strong enough to thwart what has been some good quarters?" ([12:18])

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Eli Lilly's Unexpected Decline

Timestamp: [20:02] – [22:36]

Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly experienced a significant stock drop of over 11.5%, marking its worst day since the 2008 financial crisis. Despite exceeding earnings estimates, the company's trimmed guidance and strategic setbacks contributed to investor concerns.

Jared Holz, Mizuho Health Care Strategist, analyzed, "The quarter I thought was fine, not anything to write home about. Maybe an extra 5% for CVS Novo." ([20:48])

Impact of Competitive Dynamics

Eli Lilly's guidance was negatively impacted by CVS Caremark choosing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy as its preferred GLP-1 drug, excluding Lilly's Zeppbound from standard formularies. This shift suggests potential market share erosion for Lilly, although Holz remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Lilly's drug portfolio.

Carter Worth added, "This doesn't change that view. I do think this changes give a better opportunity to buy it now than you did yesterday." ([22:14])

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Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis

Timestamp: [12:18] – [37:10]

The episode delved into broader market reactions, emphasizing the significance of technical indicators like the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average—a "death cross." Panelists debated whether recent strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta could sustain market momentum against these bearish technical signals.

Gene Munster observed, "Amazon's ricocheted. Yes. And here it is sort of in the middle of the tennis court if you will. No man's land if you were." ([12:18])

Carter Worth compared market movements to strategic plays in golf, underscoring the unpredictability and volatility influenced by factors like tariffs and upcoming jobs reports.

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Anticipation of the Jobs Report

Timestamp: [20:02] – [37:33]

Looking ahead, the market is bracing for the release of the April jobs report. Economists predict a slowdown in employment growth from March, with potential implications for Federal Reserve policies. Panelists discussed how job market data could influence investor sentiment and bond yields.

Carter Worth highlighted, "If you saw a really weak number, that treasury bond yield which was a lot higher three weeks ago, might get a lot lower." ([35:39])

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McDonald's and Retail Sector Performance

Timestamp: [37:10] – [44:42]

In the retail sector, McDonald's reported its largest drop in same-store sales since the pandemic, declining by 3.6%, double the expectations. This downturn reflects broader challenges in consumer spending and traffic patterns, with higher-income traffic remaining stable while lower-income segments wane.

Jared Holz commented, "It's tough to say on the valuation... it's just a matter of what you want to pay for it." ([22:05])

Carter Worth noted McDonald's as a defensive stock, yet observed its relative underperformance amidst market rallies: "I mean, their cohort is the one that's been under the most pressure at different times." ([39:08])

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wrapped up, panelists emphasized the importance of navigating market uncertainties amidst strong earnings reports and looming economic indicators. With Apple and Amazon facing mixed reactions, Eli Lilly’s unexpected stock decline, and McDonald's sales slump, investors are advised to stay vigilant and consider both technical and fundamental analyses when making investment decisions.

Tim Seymour concluded, "They won't change that is the environment we're in." ([35:39])

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Notable Quotes

• Steve Kovac ([01:58]): "Apple revenues were also a beat... Services though, just a teeny, teeny, teeny tiny mess here. Still up about 12% though that is likely what's hanging on the stock right now."

• Gene Munster ([12:18]): "Amazon's ricocheted. Yes. And here it is sort of in the middle of the tennis court if you will. No man's land if you were."

• Jared Holz ([20:48]): "It doesn't seem like it's going to be doomsday for Lilly by any means. But you don't want a competitor out there linking up with a PBM and taking share."

• Carter Worth ([39:08]): "I mean, McDonald's cohort is the one that's been under the most pressure at different times."

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Stay Informed

For more insights and real-time updates, visit Fast Money on CNBC.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

As America's leading business lender, bank of America is on your corner and in your corner. With $215 billion in business loans and over 3,700 business specialists across the nation, we help businesses thrive so communities prosper. What would you like the power to do? Learn [e-mail] LOCALBUSINESS bank of America Official bank of FIFA Club World Cup 2025 Copyright 2025 bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. Hey Fidelity, what's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app?

[Tim Seymour]

Start with as little as $1 with.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Carter Worth]

Hmm.

[Kate Rooney]

That's music to my ears.

[Carter Worth]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Steve Kovac]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Carter Worth]

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[Tim Seymour]

Some account types and securities excluded.

[Steve Kovac]

[e-mail] Commission Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member.

[Carter Worth]

NYSE SIBC Live from the NASDAQ markets.

[Melissa Lee]

Out in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Another big night of earnings. Apple and Amazon headlining the action tonight, but we've got reports for many more. We are dialed into the calls to bring you all the details. Plus losing weight. Shares of Eli Lilly paring down in a big way in their worst day since 2008. Why? The company's earnings report sent the stock sharply lower and stocks in rally mode. The NASDAQ now back above where it was on President Trump's so called Liberation Day. Can the momentum keep going? And what will tomorrow's jobs report mean for the run? I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Carter Worth and Guy Adami, three musketeers here. We start off with a triple night of earnings tonight. Apple, Amazon, Airbnb all reporting in the last hour as well as a slew of other names. You got full team coverage of the results. Deirdre Bosa standing by, an Airbnb. Kate Rooney's got the details on Amazon. We start off with Steve Kovac who's got Apple results and more on the company's monster buyback.

[Steve Kovac]

Steve Monster buyback, Mel but not as big as the monster buyback a year ago. We'll get to that a second. First, let's go over the results here. Apple's EPS was a beat at a buck. 65. Street wanted to see a $63 per share. Apple revenues were also a beat. 95.36 billion. Street was looking for 94.66 and then iPhone revenues. This is a beat as well. $46.84 billion beating by about $1 billion and up 2% year on year. Services though, just a teeny, teeny, teeny tiny mess here. Still up about 12% though that is likely what's hanging on the stock right now. After hours. China revenues down slightly 2% year on year to $16 billion but showing some improvement quarter over quarter. And then I did catch up with CEO Tim Cook on all these results and talked about a number of topics. From first on pull forward demand. We talked about that a lot going into these results. Tim Cook telling me, quote, we don't believe that there was a significant pull forward due to tariffs into the March quarter. There's no obvious evidence of that. And then on China going into this report, also something that he teased last quarter about those national subsidies for some electronics. He tell, he's telling me, quote, that they have this national subsidy program and it's helping to some degree. You can see in our results accelerated sequentially. We were at negative 11% in the the Q1 time period. We accelerated to a minus 2%. And then he goes on to say if you measure all that in constant currency, they were roughly flat for the year or year on year rather. And then on India, another huge topic of conversation about all those iPhones being produced here to get around tariffs. He says if you look at the current quarter that we're in now, if you look at the US over half of the US sales of iPhone come from India. That's a really important thing. But how on the rest of tariffs? We're expecting to Hear More from Mr. Cook on the call, which is getting kicked off right now. Also guidance, will they pull their guidance or give a little bit less color than normal due to all the uncertainty we're seeing out there? We'll find out in a few minutes. Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Steve, back to the services number. I mean was it 12% basically consensus?

[Steve Kovac]

Yeah, it's almost in line. It was just slightly lower than expectations by just, just a few million dollars I think. So that could be what's weighing down on the stock here, but other than that it's a big growth quarter.

[Melissa Lee]

Can I also ask you potentially a stupid question, but I think a lot of people want to know the answer. How would you know that the sales that they booked in the quarter were not pulled forward?

[Steve Kovac]

Yeah, that is a very good question, though I can only tell you what Mr. Cook told me, which is he saw no evidence pull forward. And that doesn't mean this. Keep in mind, this is March before the Liberation Day tariffs. So it's definitely possible in April, which is the quarter we're in now, that they did see some pull forward in early April. We just don't know that yet. We're going to have to wait to see if maybe we get a hint of that in the guidance. Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Right. Okay, Steve, keep us posted. Steve Kovac, that Apple call going on right now, it's down by about 3%. Timothy, would you make of the call?

[Carter Worth]

I'm in trouble, Timothy. And by the way, not a dumb question and very interesting because, you know, if you're looking at headlines coming out of the journal right now, they're basically saying iPhone, iPhone, demand surged ahead of tariff uncertainty. So I think that's part of the problem with this number. It does look fantastic. If you look at the March quarter, this is the best, these are the best numbers in a couple of years. You can't like the service numbers and you can't like the service numbers because that's been supporting the margin and ultimately supporting the valuation is should a hardware company trade it 30 times? No. Should a hardware card company trade it 34 times? No. And you know, it's traded anywhere in there. And if you put even a 28 on this thing, I think the company's probably going to struggle a little bit. So that, that's the, I do think the, the Indian news, how much production, how quickly is stuff that the market really cares about in the medium term. But in the short term, I really do think it is about where's the new demand coming from and how much of a hit will China be?

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, I look at it and Sam, I understand what Tim is saying, but now services are almost 28% of overall revenue. So even though it was a very slight miss, it's a bigger percentage of overall revenue. Might be the biggest we've ever seen. I don't know. My sense is it probably is. Which sort of justifies it. Margins are holding in there. To your point, there's no way to tell unless you say historically, in this quarter, if we saw a pull forward, we'd be seeing this plus X or something. I don't know how they came. That determination I'm sort of surprised to see here.

[Carter Worth]

Sounds like we got an app.

[Guy Adami]

No, no, no. I just want to be, I want to be fair here. I mean, I'm surprised the stock is lower on the back.

[Carter Worth]

I mean, you have to be so defensive.

[Melissa Lee]

No, in all seriousness, I raise that question. There was pull forward with everything else out there. Everything. Cars, clothes, everything. So why not an iPhone? One of the biggest purchases people would make. Especially if there is an impending upgrade cycle and there are old iPhones out there. I know that I have an iPhone 11 and I need to upgrade. Why wouldn't I do it before the tariffs? I didn't by the way. But that's beside the point. Carter, what do you make of the stock?

[Gene Munster]

Well, I mean I don't think there's anything idiosyncratic about the stock. I think that it's the same setup we've seen in other big stocks. We know that almost all stocks that have been very important have advanced for the past two years. All broke hard with the market, all have ricocheted. And now two that gapped up, Microsoft and Metta. Now we're going to get the opposite out of Apple and Amazon. And so I don't think there's anything unique to this and I think it's a question of whether one fades these moves or not. My hunch is to fade.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. By the way, an increase in the dividend 4% by 4% and up to $100 billion in share repurchases, well, that.

[Carter Worth]

Speaks to the capital markets side of their business which makes Apple extre extremely defensive. And so and I do think Apple will be somewhat defensive. The hardest thing here is the multiple I accused guy of being an Apple. I'm actually long Apple. So I mean you are an Apple. So you know, to the extent that I actually believe in the story and I don't believe that we priced in a refresh. I really don't and maybe we shouldn't have. In fact Apple intelligence really isn't a whole lot of anything what kind of worries me here and it's great having Carter, isn't that a downtrend on Apple? That's that I'm looking at really from kind of the end of the year that right now it could be selling off right at the top end of that downtrend.

[Gene Munster]

And that's the setup that is I know Microsoft is also back up to the downtrend and Microsoft has gapped above that. But I think the issue really for Apple because it's always about one thing. Are you generating alpha in your selection its relative performance? The qs peaked in Q4 of 2022. We're Q1 of 2025. It is not delivered the goods.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, let's get to Amazon shares Right now they are also falling in the after hour session despite a top and a bottom line beat. The conference call kicked off at the top of the hour. CNBC's Kate Mar the numbers. Hey Kate.

[Kate Rooney]

Hey Mel. Yes, so Amazon earnings did beat by 23 cents on strong revenue for the quarter. A miss though on cloud growth really hitting the stock after hours. It has been down about 4% around that range now. U.S. growth was the big disappointment for investors though. It was 17% year over year shy of consensus which was looking for 17.6%. And expectations had been even higher heading into Amazon's print. After Microsoft's strong quarter on the cloud side, the whisper number was around 20% as far as expectations. Q2 operating income for his guidance was also disappointing as well. Although Q2 revenue guidance was stronger than expected. Amazon noting a slight headwind from foreign exchange in Q2 advertising was a bright spot, up 19% year over year beating expectations. North America sales beat but retail margins did contract sequentially. Tariff impact in the press release was called out explicitly in the forward looking statements. We do expect to hear more about that. Andy Jassy just mentioned this on the call right before we were coming to air. Mel, I want to get you this comment quickly. He said here obviously none of us know where tariffs will settle or when. We haven't seen any attenuation of demand yet. To some extent we've seen heightened buying in certain categories that may indicate stocking up in advance of any potential tariff impact. Also said we have not seen the average selling price of retail items appreciably go up yet. So that is brand new from the earnings call. Mel back over to you.

[Melissa Lee]

All right Kate, keep us posted. Thank you. Kate Rooney. Amazon shares down by 3.6%. So basically guidance, the revenues at least the bracket was above where consensus, I mean consensus at the bottom of the bracket. But there's a big asterisk here with this guidance.

[Guy Adami]

So if you're. Yeah, it's the second quarter operating income guidance which was 13 billion to 17 and a half and the street was at 17 6. So that ratcheted things down. Okay, that's fine. But then you look at the quarter itself. 11.8% operating margins. I mean that's pretty extraordinary. I think she was looking for 11 3. It's up from 10.7 a year ago. I mean these are all good numbers. You can nitpick here without question and maybe cloud disappointed a little bit but I think you hit the nail on the head. I think that guide is giving people a little bit of a concern and.

[Carter Worth]

Drilling into that margin, operating income margin at US BE Street I think by 350 basis points. So this profitable part of the business that we all know some people's say you get E commerce for free is part of the story. I think it just gets into Amazon has always had some cyclicality to it and I feel like that's, it's a term I know I've been using this week on Fast Money because I do think it's very important when we think about a week when we've digested not some great macro and we're starting to contemplate what's really going on in addition to tariffs. And I think in the case of Amazon, that's part of the story here. I do think that the E commerce business, it's a secular trend. It's their business to control and dominate. I think, I mean Wal Mart would say something different but I think on us it gained growing cloud and then they had this marketing business. So I mean I like it, I like it relative to itself. On valuation I think you have plenty of headlines that don't look great for Amazon but I think in the medium term you love this stock.

[Gene Munster]

Again, I don't think there's anything specific. It's just the nature of this market right now. We know macro is the, is the big thing. Amazon's been an uptrend for the past two years. Yes. Amazon drops hard with almost every other stock starting in February. Yes. Amazon's ricocheted. Yes. And here it is sort of in the middle of the tennis court if you will. No man's land if you were.

[Carter Worth]

I mean, did I just hear a pair of twos?

[Gene Munster]

It might just sort of.

[Melissa Lee]

I learned just the other day was the worst hand you could possibly have except for five random cards. I didn't know there are five you could have in the hand but now I learned it depends on what you plan.

[Guy Adami]

No, but you know, pair of twos. But we talked about 27 offsuit being. You don't want that.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, I don't know what you're talking about.

[Guy Adami]

Let's move on. Okay, I'll do that. You know what all these stocks have in common though? And the broader market does as well. The 50 day moving average crossed down through the 200 day. We've talked about this ad nauseum on the show, this death cross, all these individual names and The S&P 500 all have traded back up to the 50 day. Some have overshot it. Microsoft for example. The question is with those death crosses or that formation, is it strong enough to thwart what has been some good quarters? And the Carter's point all these moves have done have gotten us back to a level is in fact a pair of twos that you fade. We're going to find out over the next couple of days.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, let's get more on these tech results with Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster. Jean, great to have you.

[Tim Seymour]

I'm Lissa.

[Melissa Lee]

Let's, let's kick it off with Amazon. Since we were just talking about that. You think the guidance is actually better than how the street is interpreting?

[Tim Seymour]

Can you explain exactly, Melissa? They typically come in at the high end of their range. And so you have to factor that in. Look at the high end, the high end was 2% higher than where the street is at for the June quarter. And that really is a powerful statement relative to the macro we're in. That's what I'm curious to hear on the call is like what was factored into that, Were they being conservative? They take in the current environment, running with it, whatever that might be. But that piece on the operating income side, a lot of people looked at that as a disappointment. Again, you have to go to the high end of the range that was in line with the Street. So the way I look at this, they guided revenue up by 2% in a really tough retail market. So I see that as a net positive.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, just to be clear, the guidance that Amazon gave is for the second quarter, correct? I mean, there are a lot of things that's correct. For instance, you know, in the E Commerce side of the business, I've read reports that, you know, they believe that there is enough inventory pretty much to cover through May. And so that would encompass pretty much the entire quarter. So their ability to give guidance for the current quarter is much greater than the back half of the year. So, you know, embedded with this, along with this asterisk to the second quarter, there's also the big unknown of the second half of the year. And, and how they are thinking about that second half of the year.

[Tim Seymour]

That's a big piece to it too. Just one more just on this, what's going to happen in the June quarter. That's true on the inventory side. But there is an element in terms of how consumers are thinking. Even if they're able to keep pricing where they're at because they've got inventory, there is a question about how consumers are going to be spending. And so I think that that guidance, the in my view, plus 2% factors in is a little bit more resilient of a consumer than what I would have thought a couple of days ago. All that said, you're correct like the back half of the year is going to be any commentary about that's going to have a big impact on how the stock trades tomorrow.

[Melissa Lee]

How about Apple? Gene, what did you make of Tim Cook saying he has no idea whether there's pull forward?

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I think that this is the first time in a long time I've said that they beat the iPhone number and that's, that's important. I think he's a straight shooter and I think he can see the numbers. He can see what happens. If they would have seen a spike in the last week of the quarter, for example, I think he would have reported that. So I think you need to take this +2% iPhone number at face value, the 2% growth and that's a solid number. But the real question is related to the iPhone number and the long time that I've been following and researching this company investing in it. I think that the dynamic around what's going to happen in their commentary around shifting production tariffs and AI is going to be a big part. I would mention this in terms of AI Cook and the prepared remarks just before I jumped on here did mention that they have more of their own models that they're starting to implement. What he's I think starting to tease out is they're not beholden to Gemini or OpenAI and trying to show to investors that they've got more AI chops than they're given credit for.

[Carter Worth]

Gene, are you worried about any of the Google revenue which is 25% of again, you know, operating income and a lot of headlines around this and would really be kind of a game changer. It's the kind of annuity that makes Apple kind of an annuity in terms of that buyback.

[Tim Seymour]

If I kind of think about all these pieces, I think that Google piece is probably the thing that makes me not rest well at night. I think they're going to actually figure out the tariff stuff. I think they're going to figure out what's going to happen on production over time. They'll sort all that out. But how this Google revenue that's, you know, call it, it's 10, 15% of their earnings. I mean it's a big number that they get from that relationship. And so I think that that is something, you know, this, the case that came up, this revision related to the epic trial today. I just want to remind people that Apple made these decisions and tweaks and adjustments knowing that this could happen. I think that they're going to prevail in this. But ultimately that's related to the epic thing, which is somewhat related to Google. I think that the Google piece is an answer question. We're not going to get clarity tonight. What I think investors are going to leave with tonight is pretty straightforward. They got a billion and a half customers that love their products. They're not going anywhere. Even if it takes them three years to figure out, they're not going anywhere. And I think investors are going to give them the benefit of the doubt that they're going to be able to navigate all these cross currents in the near term and get to much higher growth in 2026.

[Melissa Lee]

Stand by, Jean. We're going to go back to Steve Kobach who's got some more details from the conference call. I believe Tim Cook is talking about tariff impact, Steve.

[Steve Kovac]

Yeah, that's right, Melissa. Just some commentary here from CEO Tim Cook about tariff impact here. The headline here is Cook saying assuming everything stays the way it is right now they're expecting a $900 million cost in the June quarter due to the tariffs. Again, as we know, things can change things to go back and forth. But right now as things stand, he's saying to expect a $900 million cost in the quarter, but also saying they can't predict beyond that just because of so much uncertainty. Also saying and related tariffs for the March quarter, the quarter that they're reporting on, there were some limited impacts is the way he said from tariffs, but they were still able to have some supply chain optimization and get inventory ready for the current quarter we're in, which may be some of those reports that we got about iPhones being flown in in India and stuff like that. He didn't say that directly, but that's kind of how I read it. So basically getting things ready for the June quarter to mitigate the impacts, but still expecting a $900 million cost because of the tariffs. Assuming everything stays the same here, Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

And we're seeing the stock lift off at the after hour session lows. Steve. Thank you. Steve Kovac. Keep us posted. Stock down 2%. Jean, your quick take on that 900 million.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, that 900 we can put in the numbers. That's 1%, a 1% hit they're talking about to earnings 1 to 1.2%. Pretty modest. And I think that's why you're seeing the stock move higher.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Jean, we'll check back in with you thanks for that. Thank you, guy. Your take on this quarter?

[Guy Adami]

Well, I mean, down 2% in China off of last quarter, down 11. I think it's a win. I think, you know, services being a bigger percentage of overall revenue. I think it's a win. I think margins holding in there as well. I think it's all pretty good. I'm surprised the stock is off, you know, marginally. But again, technically a lot of these stocks I think are breaking down.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, we'll keep an eye on Apple and Amazon, of course, keep you posted on the conference calls. Meantime, we've also got all the other after hours action. Airbnb, Live Nation, Amgen, Roku, Instacart all reporting results. The details out of the quarters next. And speaking of earnings, shares of Eli Lilly dropping on the back of their results this morning. Why top and bottom line beats were not enough for investors. Do not go anywhere. Fast Money's back into a pivotal jobs.

[Tim Seymour]

Report with the Fed decision right around the corner. Are tariffs and policy uncertainty taking a toll on the job market? Employment numbers and analysis squawk box tomorrow, 8:30am Eastern and streaming on CNBC.

[Melissa Lee]

Plus, welcome back to Fast Money. Eli Lilly dropping over 11 and a half percent after earnings for its worst day since the financial crisis. The pharma giant beating estimates but shares getting hammered on trimmed guidance. And on news that CBS Caremark will make rival Novo Nordisk wegovy its preferred GLP1 drug. Caremark will also drop Lilly Zeppbound from its standard formularies list. For more on all this, Mizuho health care strategist Jared Holz joins us here on set. Jared always gets to see you. That 11% decline. How much of it was CVS? How much of it was the results?

[Jared Holz]

Tough to say. But I think on a day where pharma struggled, I think maybe 2 or 3% pharma weakness, just a couple, you know, a couple percent on the sector rotation dynamics, etc. The quarter I thought was fine, not anything to write home about. And so maybe, you know, an extra 5% for CVS Novo. I mean it's, it doesn't seem like it's going to be doomsday for Lilly by any means. But you don't want a competitor out there linking up with a PBM and taking share. So it kind of makes sense.

[Melissa Lee]

How much of an impact is it losing CVS Caremark for Lilly?

[Jared Holz]

We don't really know. I mean, they're no longer the preferred vendor. It doesn't mean they can't prescribe it for certain patients that are looking for extra weight loss. We don't know the details of this plan as of yet, but a lot of patients are starting on the Novo drug and then they're opting to go to Zepbound because of either adverse events or they want more weight loss. So I do think there's a possibility that it starts out fairly favorable for Novo but in the end winds up being a small impact.

[Carter Worth]

So again, this isn't a day where that relative value trade tilts you more towards Novo. And again then weaving that into the earnings, just to complete the question, they reaffirmed guidance. I mean this is a company that's, that's kicking on all cylinders and these were tough headlines. But doesn't change that view.

[Jared Holz]

It doesn't. I mean, I've been on here. I mean, last time we spoke, I mean, I was kind of bullish on novo at 70. Right. So it's kind of like right back there hasn't done much.

[Carter Worth]

I was probably bullish at 80.

[Jared Holz]

Yeah. So I mean the valuation argument has been there for Novo for a while because the disparity has been so massive. I still think on a 12% pullback or 11 to 12% pullback in Lilly, you got to buy some. You've got oral next year. The earnings are still rock solid. I don't really think this changes the trajectory for the drugs at all. So you just have like a better opportunity to buy it now than you did yesterday.

[Guy Adami]

You have to have staying power though. Does this. Does today's action show that maybe the valuation cushion, to the extent that there is one, is just not there and it's self first asked questions later?

[Jared Holz]

It's tough to say on the valuation. It's been trading in a bubble for such a long time relative to the group. Is today the day where everyone kind of decides that it doesn't deserve to trade at 2 or 3x the peer group multiple? I'm not sure that's the case. It's still by far. When you look at the fundamentals across Pfizer, Merck, Bristol, you still wind up coming back to this one. It's just a matter of what you want to pay for it. But I think on weakness you kind of have to buy it.

[Melissa Lee]

What are the odds as time goes on that Novo actually buys an asset, buys a drug in the pipeline? I mean, Pfizer got a huge boost. Just sort of alluding to the fact that it would be in the market to buy something we saw. GPCR is a Viking. Hop on that. I mean, why wouldn't novo just do that.

[Jared Holz]

I think they eventually have to. I think they will. I mean, are they stubborn to some degree because they feel that they're the market leader and don't have to or one of the market leaders and don't have to? I would think that's probably part of the equation. But as time goes on, if they don't have an oral offering and you got Lilly on the market next year with or for Glip run, it's going to be pretty bad for them. So I'd say high chance, just timing is is tough.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, we got to leave it there. Jerry, we got some news on Amazon. Thank you for coming in. Jared holds updates from Amazon's conference call. Kate Rooney's got him. Kate.

[Kate Rooney]

Hey Melissa. We're just getting some comments from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy about AI, about Amazon Web Services on AI in particular. He says that part of the business, artificial intelligence, has a quote, multibillion dollar annual revenue run rate. He says it continues to grow triple digits year over year in terms of percentages and is still in the very early days also talking about just investing aggressively in general. He said before this generation of AI he thought, or we thought being Amazon, that NWC had the chance to ultimately be a multi hundred billion dollar revenue run rate business. We now think it could be even larger than that. Talks here about investing aggressively as I said, and then also the opportunity moving to from on premise to cloud said that's a lot less sexy but a more exciting opportunity and it's been talking about that for a little bit. Last thing on tariffs, he said they're weathering the trade war as he put it. We have extremely large selections, hundreds of millions of skews. He says, quote, we are often able to weather challenging conditions better than others when there are periods of discontinuity given our really broad selection, low pricing and speedy delivery. He says, quote, we have emerged from these uncertain areas with more relative market segment share than we started and better set up. He said he is optimistic this could happen again. So there on AI and tariffs, Mel. But we'll bring you more as we get it.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Kate, thank you. We do have more updates here on Apple as well. Back to Steve Kobach for that. Steve.

[Steve Kovac]

Yeah, Melissa, we did get some guidance here. There were some questions going into whether or not we would get this. But as for the June quarter, Apple is now guiding top line revenue growth to be in the low to mid single digit percentage points. That's kind of in line with the way they've been giving guidance since the pandemic hit several years ago and margins, they're estimating that between 45 and a half and 46 and a half percent and saying that does include the tariff related costs of $900 million for the June quarter that I was just talking about. And again, I just want to reiterate this all assumes everything stays the way it is. Now we of course know that could change with the tweet from the president, but that is where things stand right now. And still you see shares down nearly 3% right now. Melissa.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Steve, thank you. Steve Kobach.

[Carter Worth]

Tim, I would listen to Andy Jassy, especially when he talks about investing for the future. I mean we forget it's one thing to even talk about the investment into us, but how about the investment Amazon made for many years into logistics, erp warehousing. And people were like how are they going to, you know, what are they doing? Suddenly they were able to turn on the margin in that E commerce business. The ability during a tariff dynamic where SKUs are missing. Where else are you going to go then? Amazon? I mean that's exactly where I would go to, you know, and I'm long the stock. So this may sound overly bullish, but again I think the company is ready to weather more than the peers. And this is a time where actually it's you take advantage of that battle runs.

[Guy Adami]

Right. I mean Carter can look back and see what we traded back I think in May, earlier this or May of last year, I want to say. And then again where we just traded down to this 165, 170 level is sort of a launch point. But now you're sort of in no man's land. I'm with Tim. There's a lot of reasons to like it, but then the fundamentals in terms of those moving averages are starting to come into play as well.

[Gene Munster]

Yeah, I mean to think that Amazon dropped 30 plus percent from its peak 33s and P only 21. And the after hours action isn't that bad. Right? You're not getting a drop in gap of 7% or 10%, that kind of thing. Of all of these, I guess this would be my favorite. But in the category, let's give it a pair of fours.

[Carter Worth]

I like that.

[Gene Munster]

That seems to be a bit better.

[Guy Adami]

Than a little bit better.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah. Okay.

[Carter Worth]

Yeah, I like that.

[Melissa Lee]

Your word for it. Coming up, more after hours action to bring you Airbnb, Live Nation, amgen, Roku, Instacart, all out with results in the last hour. The details and numbers out of those quarters ahead. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ markets at Times Square. Back right after this.

[Tim Seymour]

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[Melissa Lee]

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[Tim Seymour]

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[Steve Kovac]

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[Tim Seymour]

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[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Airbnb lower after reporting first quarter results. The home rental company posting in line earnings but giving disappointing second quarter guidance. That conference call is just wrapping up. Deirdre Bose has been listening in. Hey D. Hey.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Mallard just wrapped up. That's right. And shares, they're falling really on that Q2 revenue outlook, which was a little light. There's also some uncertainty on the macro head that might be making investors a little jittery in Q2 so far the company said it's seeing softness in the US On a sequential and a year over year basis. They believe it's driven by that macro uncertainty. Inbound travelers to the U.S. they are coming down, but they are choosing to travel to other places. Still with Airbnb, near term bookings remains relatively strong, but people just aren't booking as much in advance. They're more waiting and seeing. That said, though, no change to its full year guidance. CEO branches, he actually opened the call noting that Airbnb was built during the uncertainty of the Great Recession in 2008, came out of the pandemic stronger. And he said that today, quote, things feel uncertain once again. He says they will adapt. That was really the main message coming out of the call. They may be diversifying too. Mel in the shareholder letter, the company teased its upcoming summer release on May 13, writing Airbnb will go beyond places to stay. Chesky has long teased opportunities that they'd move out of their core of home sharing and experiences. So we'll see what that is. Maybe services related.

[Melissa Lee]

Interesting. Debo, I should probably know this, but in terms of geographies, if we're seeing softer business in the U.S. but that business is being reallocated to somewhere else in the world, let's say, or another country is there it's difference in profitability between markets.

[Deirdre Bosa]

It's such a small percentage. They did make this point in terms of travel into the U.S. what is a bigger business is travel domestically. So Americans traveling within the U.S. they said that that actually remains pretty strong. So it's not going to be a major hit where they're going. These say they said that, you know, Canadians, for example, that aren't going to the US as much. They're going to places like Latin America where you would think that the adr, the average daily rate wouldn't be quite as high. But again, it's a small portion. So overall, you know, that's why they said that they're expecting to keep their full, full year guidance in line.

[Melissa Lee]

Debo. Thanks. Deirdre Bosa stocks down 5.9% I believe Airbnb was the A and guy's calm trade. Look at you or clam as it begins.

[Tim Seymour]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

[Guy Adami]

No, no, no, no, no. Agnico eagle mind clam. But Airbnb itself is in calm. That's a good as long by you. I also that was a long time ago. It was a long time ago when Deirdre Bosa was talking about, talking about this is not just sort of a bookings play. This is technology play and look and sort of go into the fine print and they're talking about re basically redoing their app and May 13th I think is the day they talked about. I actually think you sort of buy Airbnb here.

[Gene Munster]

So we heard that of course it was a Covid kind of thing. When it came out, it was December of 2020 and the IPO price was $68 a share. But unless you were in before that, which means you were allocated shares, the first print was $146 dollars. The stock right now is trading below the price that anyone in the public could ever have owned it. Which is to say this has been a tough investment. Euphoria is a heck of a thing. It was very euphoric when it was.

[Carter Worth]

Launched and it's going to be though as much of a headwind in terms of what's going on out there. I think Airbnb could face it in the world we're talking about. That's uncertain. But 30% growth 18 times forward. It's not expensive.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, stocks rallying as earnings season rolls on. But with a big jobs report coming tomorrow. Will the data further fuel the market comeback? We'll debate that when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks jumping on the first day of May boosted Microsoft and Met as a post earnings gain and Dow and S&P 500 both on an eight day winning streak. The Nasdaq has now recouped all its losses since President Trump's tariff announcement on April 2nd. GME in time losing steam in today's session after lowering guidance this morning is now expecting a 4 to 5 billion dollars impact as a result of President Donald Trump's auto tariffs. And some more after hours action. Fintech company Block Block lower after missing revenue estimates. Amgen, Reddit, Roku all topping EPS and revenue expectations. Instacart missing a top bottom line expectations. Twilio also beating EPS in revenue estimates. Live Nation posting a smaller than expected loss but missing revenue expectations. And U.S. steel beating on the top and the bottom lines. We are getting some more updates now from Apple's conference call. Tim Cook was actually asked about the back half of the year. Gene Munser has been listening in. You've got the color, Gene. What is it?

[Tim Seymour]

Well, Melissa, by my count, two out of every three questions have been tariff related. And in this instance one of the analysts really pushed for commentary beyond June. As you said, and I'm going to quote him, he said that it's very difficult to predict beyond June. And I translate that to very difficult to predict beyond June as that gives investors a restless night and you saw shares starting to drift a little bit lower. It's been a little bit of a roller coaster in the after hours. On the positive side, the guidance was effectively in line for the top line for June. But as you talked about earlier on in the show, it's really about beyond June. And that comment about very difficult applaud Cook for shooting straight. But I think that that commentary is something that investors are just going to have to live with for the next months until we get this trade thing sorted out.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Gene, thank you. Gene Munster, the stock is now down about 3% on this lack of clarity about the second half of the year, which you know, we sort of expected given they gave guidance in the second quarter and that they would be pushed for guidance in the back half. We have it and that is there is no guidance because it is so uncertain guy messy.

[Guy Adami]

I mean off that 170 level you got up to what, to 20 or so? Was that enough you're going to pull? What does this pullback get you? To me, Carter can give you levels, but that's what you're going to see. It's almost as if the quarters don't necessarily matter as much as the technicals and now some of the noise around tariffs and stuff. That's the environment we're in Melbourne.

[Melissa Lee]

That is my takeaway that what you do is the most important thing or.

[Gene Munster]

Not Just this practitioner, anyone who does it.

[Melissa Lee]

Right, right, of course, studies price.

[Carter Worth]

Well, the level has been pointed out on the stock that it was liberation. I think it was around 220. And the question remains, is this stock defensive in this environment or is it not? And you know, I do think that when you started to hear some of the exceptions in the carve outs for the, the mobile phone makers and electronics, it was and you know the news now that India can be 50% of where production comes from. There's a lot of things that ultimately can mitigate your concern that Apple, which was in the line of fire, is now just faced with good old Apple issues. The issues we had before that were related to China and the issues we had that were related to the multiple. I don't think anything's changed. I think it's defensive.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, so of course today we had a rally fueled by Matta and Microsoft and their results. Yesterday we had big gains across the board, particularly in the trade. And then tonight we get Apple and Amazon with some disappointments. Tomorrow we get the April jobs report.

[Carter Worth]

Which will be very just like that.

[Melissa Lee]

Interesting economists expecting employment growth to decelerate from March. Will the data help keep today's rally going? Will it save the markets? Will it put more pressure on it? Because one could argue that today's after hours earnings will put pressure on that rally that we saw in today's session.

[Carter Worth]

Well, it's also interesting because today they're not related. This jobs data is number from last month. Today we had a more concurrent number in job initial jobless claims and they jumped and they jumped significantly higher. It's as I always point out, it's a noisy data series which means you can have a lot of volatility in there. But, but jobless claims have really been holding up. So and if you remember that that payroll number last month was a bit of a relief to a market that was a little bit concerned about growth. So tomorrow's number is big. I think if you saw a really weak number, that treasury bond yield which was a lot higher three weeks ago, might get a lot lower.

[Guy Adami]

When I came earlier today, Rory McIlroy.

[Melissa Lee]

Was here, love earlier to the NASDAQ.

[Guy Adami]

To The Nasdaq here I pointed to being interviewed by Andrew Ross Sorkin. It made me think of the great sport of golf. And the front nine today was great. The back nine not so much. I mean we gave a lot back in that back nine. You like what I did there. And tomorrow is sort of the final round of the week.

[Carter Worth]

So a day in the markets like a round of golf.

[Guy Adami]

Today it was just during the session.

[Melissa Lee]

But the after hours session would be.

[Guy Adami]

I don't know, maybe it's a nice recession. I'm not sure.

[Carter Worth]

I mean, don't hold me time to drink.

[Gene Munster]

Yeah. This is the 19th hole. I think that the important thing is the 2 year yields keep going lower. 10 year yields are stuck here and oil's in freefall. It all is messaging.

[Melissa Lee]

A certain thing is bad news on the jobs front. Good news that has indicated that it's more willing to come in if jobs soften inflation.

[Guy Adami]

Okay, that's fine. But just got if you looked at GDP print, the inflation component was hot. The gd, the other component was soft. The final piece of the stagflation puzzle is jobs. If jobs is weak, that's problematic to me.

[Carter Worth]

Yeah. Well I think if jobs are weak, it's going to be a bad day. I think you have a growth scare is a lot worse than than an inflation scare. And I'm not worried about the Fed on inflation. I'm worried about growth and I'm worried about the Fed that has to step in here for that, that stocks are not priced for recession. I think they've done a good job of navigating the murkiness. But not priced for recession.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, a big Mac bummer. McDonald's seeing its worst sales drop since the pandemic. Why diners are not rushing to the golden arches as much as they used to. That is next. Fast Money's back in June. Welcome back to Fast Money. McDonald's shares falling today after the fast food giant reported its largest drop in same store sales since the pandemic. The 3.6% decline is the worst since the second quarter of 2020 and twice as much as Wall street was expecting. The company also missing revenue expectations. Shake Shack also reporting its worst same store sales result since 2020 up just 2.10 of a percent compared to Wall street estimates of 2.4%. Starbucks also remember gave disappointing numbers earlier in the week. So there is a trend there specific to McDonald's. They called out the lower income traffic being much lighter, higher income traffic holding up. So that's sort of the story of retail in general at this point?

[Carter Worth]

Well, it had to happen, right? I mean, McDonald's has been such a horse through all this and in fact, the stock has to through some difficult times, been very defensive. It's not surprising to me it was also giving up a little ground, even on a relative basis to the market as it was rallying so much. So look, their cohort is the one that's been under the most pressure at different times, even though they found a way to beat the competition to really whatever discretionary income they had to spend on McDonald's.

[Melissa Lee]

Is it a horse? A good.

[Gene Munster]

I mean, sure has been. Look, they're all sort of dropping and get horses. Brinker horse, factory horse, pair of mules, maybe. But. But what? Brinker dropped in on its numbers. It's a, it's a space that's under pressure and it's obviously consumer related. I think there's no reason to be long. It looks like it's either stuck here or will give ground.

[Guy Adami]

I don't think it's as much to tell on McDonald's as it is to your earlier point on the industry and the, the backdrop, the macro backdrop, I mean, to use the term that Tim has used before correctly, I don't think you run too far from McDonald's here.

[Melissa Lee]

So out of all of those though, McDonald's is the best one. I think the ones that we talked I more defensible within this sector.

[Carter Worth]

Oh, without question. And Shaq can't grow, you know, flat. I mean, they have to grow. They have to grow. They have a multiple that says they have to grow.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, another check on Apple now at session lows down 4%. More on what is driving that move and what the company had to say about where it is manufacturing in the face of tariffs. Let's get back to Steve Kovac with more updates from Apple. Steve?

[Steve Kovac]

Hey there, Melissa. Yeah, as you can imagine, tariffs just dominated the conversation on the call, which is winding down right now. And let's talk a little bit about what Tim Cook has been saying about managing the supply chain. Now, he told myself before the earnings call happened that he expects over half of iPhones sold to the United States in this current June quarter to have been produced in India. And on top of that, it's not just India, it's also Vietnam and other countries like that. For example, for accessories like AirPods and watches. All of those products that are sold in the US end up being produced in Vietnam. But China is still important. Tim Cook saying on this call that for the rest of the world Excluding the United States, the vast majority of products are still going to be made in China. That includes everything from iPhones to iPads to Macs. If you if you live in Europe or if you live in another country, that is likely going to be made in China. But we really what we're seeing here, Melissa, is Tim Cook's managing of the supply chain. A lot of this actually began during COVID during all those lockdowns in China, where they had to expand outside in order to get basically product out the door and overseas. And that is really kind of paying off in a different way now with the tariff thing and what we're seeing in the June quarter, they're still able to guide revenue growth and they're still able to mitigate the effects of these tariffs with that 900, $900 million in charges there. But really pay attention. India is going to keep ramping up for USA products. Vietnam as well.

[Melissa Lee]

MELISSA all right, Steve, thank you. Steve Kovacs, basically, products bound for the U.S. u.S. Sales will probably come from countries other than China. Everywhere else in the world, the products will likely come the vast majority will likely come from China. But it is the commentary about the back half that is weighing on the stock right now. Let's get Gene Munster back in the conversation. Gene, any takeaways from the latest in the conference call?

[Tim Seymour]

I think Steve set it up really well. There's two tracks going on. One is about what they're doing in the near term, how they're managing it, and I'll give them a 10 out of 10. They basically maintain their revenue guidance despite the macro earnings guidance, maintained despite this hit, this 1% hit to the tariff impact. That's one track that's all very positive. But investors are just obsessing about this, wanting to have some superpower to look in the back half of the year. And so I think that that's if if there's that's not going to be resolved anytime soon. I do believe that ultimately investors are going to take a step back and look at the substance, that Cook's doing a great job in this quarter, and there's every reason to believe he'll continue to do a great job in the September and December quarters when we start getting through this. And so that's what's the rub on the stock right now.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Gene, thank you for your analysis throughout the hour. GENE munster, Deepwater Asset Management END all right, so let's go back to this. Gene said he doesn't have the superpower, so investors should be so so hard on the stock at this point for not being able to guide in the back half of the year. That is fair, but at the same time that's what investors want. So can you blame them for selling in the after hours?

[Guy Adami]

No is the short answer. You cannot. And now it's it's an approved me period of time. Again, quickly, technical seem to be more important than fundamentals right now.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, up next, final trade. Time for the final trade.

[Carter Worth]

Timothy Got a big game for my Leafs tonight in the battle of Ontario by the way. Anyway, Novartis NBS Carter playing for lower.

[Gene Munster]

Yields, buying XLU utilities guy.

[Guy Adami]

Tough 18 hour period out there at Shea, but hey, you know, going to St. Louis, I'm sure everything will be fine. Summit SMMT thank you for watching Fast.

[Deirdre Bosa]

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[Melissa Lee]

And may have been previously disseminated by.

[Deirdre Bosa]

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[Melissa Lee]

You should not treat any opinion expressed.

[Deirdre Bosa]

On this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither.

[Melissa Lee]

CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer A pivotal jobs.

[Tim Seymour]

Report with the Fed decision right around the corner, Are tariffs and policy uncertainty taking a toll on the job market? Employment numbers and analysis squawkbox tomorrow 8:30am Eastern and streaming on CNBC.