CNBC's "Fast Money" Episode Summary
Title: Apple and Amazon Earnings Roll In, Eli Lilly Tanks, And Markets Brace For Jobs Report
Release Date: May 1, 2025

Introduction

Hosted by Melissa Lee alongside CNBC’s expert roundtable—Tim Seymour, Carter Worth, and Guy Adami—"Fast Money" delves into the day's most significant financial news. This episode centers on the latest earnings reports from tech giants Apple and Amazon, the unexpected downturn of pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, and the market's anticipation of the forthcoming jobs report.

Apple's Earnings Performance

Timestamp: [01:03] – [05:03]

Apple Inc. delivered a stellar earnings report, surpassing analyst expectations. The company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) stood at $1.65, beating the anticipated $1.63. Revenues reached $95.36 billion, exceeding the forecasted $94.66 billion. Notably, iPhone revenues climbed to $46.84 billion, a $1 billion increase year-over-year, up by 2%.

However, services revenue showed a more modest growth of 12%, slightly below expectations. This underperformance in services may be influencing Apple's stock performance post-earnings.

Steve Kovac highlighted, "Apple revenues were also a beat... Services though, just a teeny, teeny, teeny tiny mess here. Still up about 12% though that is likely what's hanging on the stock right now." ([01:58])

Tariffs and Supply Chain Management

A critical concern discussed was the impact of tariffs on Apple's supply chain. CEO Tim Cook addressed this, indicating a strategic shift in manufacturing locations to mitigate tariff effects. Specifically, over half of Apple's iPhones sold in the U.S. are now produced in India, with additional production in Vietnam for accessories like AirPods and Apple Watches.

Steve Kovac elaborated, "Assuming everything stays the way it is right now they're expecting a $900 million cost in the June quarter due to the tariffs." ([17:52])

Guidance and Market Reaction

Apple maintained its revenue growth guidance for the upcoming June quarter in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range, despite the $900 million tariff-related costs. However, the lack of clarity on the second half of the year left investors uneasy, leading to a nearly 3% drop in Apple’s stock during after-hours trading.

Tim Seymour remarked, "Cook's doing a great job in this quarter, and there's every reason to believe he'll continue to do a great job in the September and December quarters when we start getting through this." ([42:17])

Amazon's Earnings Performance

Timestamp: [08:54] – [12:18]

Amazon reported an EPS beat of $0.23 and stronger-than-expected revenue. Despite this, growth in its cloud division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), fell short of expectations, leading to a 4% decline in the stock's after-hours performance. Overall U.S. growth was 17% year-over-year, slightly below the consensus of 17.6%.

Kate Rooney noted, "AWS on the cloud side, the whisper number was around 20% as far as expectations," indicating investor disappointment in the cloud segment's performance. ([08:54])

Guidance and Strategic Insights

Amazon's Q2 operating income guidance projected between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, slightly below the street's expectation of $17.6 billion. Despite this, revenue guidance was raised by 2%, which Tim Seymour interpreted as a sign of resilience amidst a challenging retail environment.

Tim Seymour commented, "They guided revenue up by 2% in a really tough retail market. So I see that as a net positive." ([14:07])

Artificial Intelligence and Future Investments

Andy Jassy, Amazon's CEO, emphasized the company's aggressive investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with AWS AI services growing at triple-digit rates year-over-year. He expressed optimism about transitioning from on-premise to cloud solutions, enhancing Amazon's market position.

Guy Adami highlighted, "All these stocks have in common though? And the broader market does as well... Is it strong enough to thwart what has been some good quarters?" ([12:18])

Eli Lilly's Unexpected Decline

Timestamp: [20:02] – [22:36]

Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly experienced a significant stock drop of over 11.5%, marking its worst day since the 2008 financial crisis. Despite exceeding earnings estimates, the company's trimmed guidance and strategic setbacks contributed to investor concerns.

Jared Holz, Mizuho Health Care Strategist, analyzed, "The quarter I thought was fine, not anything to write home about. Maybe an extra 5% for CVS Novo." ([20:48])

Impact of Competitive Dynamics

Eli Lilly's guidance was negatively impacted by CVS Caremark choosing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy as its preferred GLP-1 drug, excluding Lilly's Zeppbound from standard formularies. This shift suggests potential market share erosion for Lilly, although Holz remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Lilly's drug portfolio.

Carter Worth added, "This doesn't change that view. I do think this changes give a better opportunity to buy it now than you did yesterday." ([22:14])

Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis

Timestamp: [12:18] – [37:10]

The episode delved into broader market reactions, emphasizing the significance of technical indicators like the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average—a "death cross." Panelists debated whether recent strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta could sustain market momentum against these bearish technical signals.

Gene Munster observed, "Amazon's ricocheted. Yes. And here it is sort of in the middle of the tennis court if you will. No man's land if you were." ([12:18])

Carter Worth compared market movements to strategic plays in golf, underscoring the unpredictability and volatility influenced by factors like tariffs and upcoming jobs reports.

Anticipation of the Jobs Report

Timestamp: [20:02] – [37:33]

Looking ahead, the market is bracing for the release of the April jobs report. Economists predict a slowdown in employment growth from March, with potential implications for Federal Reserve policies. Panelists discussed how job market data could influence investor sentiment and bond yields.

Carter Worth highlighted, "If you saw a really weak number, that treasury bond yield which was a lot higher three weeks ago, might get a lot lower." ([35:39])

McDonald's and Retail Sector Performance

Timestamp: [37:10] – [44:42]

In the retail sector, McDonald's reported its largest drop in same-store sales since the pandemic, declining by 3.6%, double the expectations. This downturn reflects broader challenges in consumer spending and traffic patterns, with higher-income traffic remaining stable while lower-income segments wane.

Jared Holz commented, "It's tough to say on the valuation... it's just a matter of what you want to pay for it." ([22:05])

Carter Worth noted McDonald's as a defensive stock, yet observed its relative underperformance amidst market rallies: "I mean, their cohort is the one that's been under the most pressure at different times." ([39:08])

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wrapped up, panelists emphasized the importance of navigating market uncertainties amidst strong earnings reports and looming economic indicators. With Apple and Amazon facing mixed reactions, Eli Lilly’s unexpected stock decline, and McDonald's sales slump, investors are advised to stay vigilant and consider both technical and fundamental analyses when making investment decisions.

Tim Seymour concluded, "They won't change that is the environment we're in." ([35:39])

Notable Quotes

• Steve Kovac ([01:58]): "Apple revenues were also a beat... Services though, just a teeny, teeny, teeny tiny mess here. Still up about 12% though that is likely what's hanging on the stock right now."

• Gene Munster ([12:18]): "Amazon's ricocheted. Yes. And here it is sort of in the middle of the tennis court if you will. No man's land if you were."

• Jared Holz ([20:48]): "It doesn't seem like it's going to be doomsday for Lilly by any means. But you don't want a competitor out there linking up with a PBM and taking share."

• Carter Worth ([39:08]): "I mean, McDonald's cohort is the one that's been under the most pressure at different times."

Stay Informed

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