Apple Earnings Next Week… And Housing Stocks Soar 7/24/26

Summary

CNBC Fast Money Podcast Summary: "Apple Earnings Next Week… And Housing Stocks Soar"

Air Date: July 24, 2026
Host: Frank Holland (in for Melissa Lee)
Panel: Courtney Garcia Bono, Mike Koh, Bono, Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley), Mackenzie Sagalos (Morgan Stanley, guest analyst), Julia Boorstin, Eamon Javers, Jim Bianco

Episode Overview

This episode of Fast Money covers key market events and investor themes ahead of the coming week, including the impending earnings reports from major tech firms (especially Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon), the intensifying focus on capital expenditures (CapEx) and AI spend, rising odds of a Fed rate hike, turbulence in energy markets, and notable sector moves—specifically in housing, transports, and financials. The team also analyzes high-profile corporate news like the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger and recent IPOs (notably SpaceX).

---

Main Topics and Key Insights

1. Big Tech Earnings Preview & CapEx Anxiety

• Earnings on Tap: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon all report next week; Apple trades near all-time highs in anticipation (01:02).

• CapEx Focus:

  • Markets are scrutinizing surging CapEx among tech majors—Alphabet’s CapEx up 101% YoY, Tesla's up over 140%. Investors wonder when AI spending will actually become profitable ([02:45], [03:34]).
  • “You’re just seeing this huge race toward artificial intelligence... no one really knows when that’s going to become profitable... [if] that continues, they probably are going to get hit.”
    — Courtney Garcia Bono [02:45]

• Return on Capital:

  • Shift in focus from “picks and shovels” toward monetization and demand. Are tech firms generating earnings from their spend?
    — Katarina Simonetti ([04:01])

• Alphabet’s Cloud Growth and Capital Mix:

  • Cloud business is growing, but issuing $40B in new equity raises dilution/valuation questions ([07:38]).

• Microsoft as a Laggard, Apple as the Outlier:

  • Microsoft seen as potential catch-up play, with strong enterprise positioning and less aggressive price action pre-earnings ([06:24], [08:01]).
  • Apple’s CapEx restraint makes it a unique case among hyperscalers ([02:45], [10:14]).

2. Apple’s Symbolic Quarter: Tim Cook’s Farewell Earnings

• Key Issues:
  • Last report under Tim Cook. Wall Street betting on whether Apple can lift earnings with price increases despite slowing unit growth ([08:56]).
  • Component costs are rising; Apple may need to hike iPhone prices by $200 just to preserve key margins ([08:56]).
  • “At roughly 34 times forward earnings, there is little room for disappointment as Cook rounds out his tenure as CEO.”
    — Mackenzie Sagalos [09:52]
  • China: Rebounding demand; iPhone growth back in double digits ([08:56]).
  • Panel Take: Apple seen as offering a margin of safety due to its business model and less CapEx-heavy approach ([10:23], [11:18]).

3. Market Broadening & Sector Rotations

• Growth in areas outside the “hyperscalers.”
  • Small and midcap stocks’ forward earnings are at all-time highs; equal-weighted S&P outperforming traditional S&P 500 indices ([08:01]).
  • “There’s so many other ones that are doing really well right now and I don’t ignore that either.”
    — Courtney Garcia Bono [08:01]

4. Energy Markets & Geopolitics

• Oil Price Volatility:
  • WTI crude dropped 3% to under $90 on geopolitical talks between the US and Iran ([12:14]).
  • Multiple reports of possible military escalation; major Saudi nuclear deal with unclear conditions ([12:42], [13:01]).
  • Options markets see more bets on crude downside but uncertainty is high ([14:13]).
  • Quote: “The problem with these negotiations...you can maybe agree with one or two factions and still have another three that you have to contend with.”
    — Mike Koh [14:13]

5. Media Mergers: Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery

• Merger delayed until June 2027; massive ticking fees ($7M/day after September 30th) kick in.
  • Paramount could owe up to $1.7B in delay fees ([15:10]).
  • Panel is skeptical of the financial upside given the mounting costs ([16:38], [16:51], [17:30]).

6. Semiconductors: Qualcomm Price Hike; Intel Reversal

• Qualcomm warning customers of double-digit chip price increases ([19:49]).
  • Input costs are feeding inflation, complicating the Fed’s efforts.
  • “This could be one of the causes of inflation… [and] makes the Fed’s job a little more difficult.”
    — Courtney Garcia Bono [20:15]
• Intel:
  • Posted best revenue growth in 15 years but sold off post-earnings on CapEx/fabrication worries ([21:32], [22:02]).
  • “They simply don't have the same fortress balance sheet … as those other CapEx spenders.”
    — Bono [22:02]
  • Market still crowded into large-cap tech, resistance to adding names even after good prints ([23:08]).

7. IPO Watch: SpaceX Analyst Rating

• HSBC puts a hold and $115 price target, effectively at current levels.
  • Analyst: “Even with an Elon Musk innovation premium, stock could stay grounded” ([26:09], [26:37])
  • Mike Koh challenges the call:
    “If you’re interested in Elon, you’re interested in space, they put 90% of the mass in orbit. So it’s really the only game in town.” ([27:40])
  • Next catalysts: Earnings and lockup expiration ([28:18]).

8. Federal Reserve & Inflation Debate

• Rate Hike Odds: CME Fed Watch Tool shows a rare 38% hike probability for next week’s decision, reflecting high uncertainty ([31:10]).
• Jim Bianco’s take:
  • Elevated inflation and strong economic data mean the “neutral” interest rate is rising ([31:35], [33:04]).
  • “Bond investors can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking … if they wait too long like in 2022, bond investors might run for the exits and you could see vastly higher interest rates.” ([33:04])
  • Panel split: Some think a quick hike could stabilize long yields, others think cuts are off the table but hikes aren’t imminent ([36:50], [37:50]).
  • “I think a 25 basis point increase is warranted ... it will probably stabilize the long end.”
    — Mike Koh [36:59]

9. Housing, Transports, and Banks

• Housing:

  • New home sales jump; homebuilder stocks (NVR, PulteGroup, Lennar, Toll Brothers) rally even as mortgage rates remain steady ([30:31]).
  • Still, uncertainty looms if mortgage rates rise ([31:03]).

• Transports:

  • Railroads hitting records (Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, CSX).
  • Outperformance vs. S&P and bullish sentiment on the sector, but valuations may limit upside ([40:17], [41:17], [42:11]).

• Banks/Financials:

  • Panel bullish, citing banks’ ability to profit in higher-rate environments and stronger M&A activity ([46:07]).

10. Consumer Signals via American Express

• Amex stock down on mixed earnings; guidance not raised, but spending among affluent customers remains strong ([43:36]).
  • Panel sees little sign of consumer stress or upper-income pullback ([44:54]).
  • “If nothing else, this earnings print has told us that that is really unfounded … I'd be looking for an opportunity to start establishing a position.”
    — Bono [44:56]

---

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “You’re just seeing this huge race toward artificial intelligence... no one really knows when that’s going to become profitable...”
  — Courtney Garcia Bono [02:45]
• “At roughly 34 times forward earnings, there is little room for disappointment as Cook rounds out his tenure as CEO.”
  — Mackenzie Sagalos [09:52]
• “Bond investors can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking … Kevin Warsh said inflation is a choice. We'll choose to do something about it.”
  — Jim Bianco [33:04]
• “If you’re interested in Elon, you’re interested in space... it’s really the only game in town.”
  — Mike Koh [27:40]
• “I think a 25 basis point increase is warranted ... it will probably stabilize the long end.”
  — Mike Koh [36:59]
• “There’s so many other [stocks] that are doing really well right now and I don’t ignore that either.”
  — Courtney Garcia Bono [08:01]

---

Important Timestamps

• 01:02 – Show open: Tech earnings, CapEx discussion, Apple’s setup
• 02:45–04:01 – Deep dive: CapEx race, AI investments, investor expectations (Courtney, Katarina)
• 08:56–10:14 – Apple’s earnings preview (Mackenzie Sagalos)
• 12:14–13:01 – Geopolitics & oil: U.S.–Iran, Saudi nuclear deal
• 15:10–17:49 – Paramount–Warner merger and financial implications
• 19:49–20:44 – Qualcomm chip price hikes and inflation discussion
• 22:02–23:08 – Intel earnings reversal & chip sector crowding
• 26:09–29:02 – SpaceX: Analyst calls, valuation, lockup discussion
• 31:10–34:18 – Fed rate hike probability, Jim Bianco on policy and market response
• 43:36–45:43 – AmEx spending read-through, consumer segment resilience
• 46:07–46:45 – Final Trade: Panel picks across sectors

---

Final Trades

• Katarina Simonetti: Banks/financials—benefit from “higher for longer” rates.
• Bono: Focus on rates, not chasing high performers; look for value, e.g., Dharmacom.
• Mike Koh: United Health—free cash flow, earnings trajectory, reasonable valuation.
• Courtney Garcia Bono: Small-cap stocks to benefit from broadening market.

---

Overall Tone & Takeaways

• Cautious Optimism:
  Panel is wary of tech valuations and CapEx bloat but sees opportunity in underappreciated sectors (transports, small caps, selected financials).
• Fed Policy Uncertainty:
  The coming Fed meeting looms large, with participants split on the timing and impact of future hikes.
• Broadening Market:
  Rotation out of megacap tech into other sectors is a major theme—with advice to look beyond the “usual suspects.”

This episode provides a comprehensive roadmap for active investors as markets transition from narrow leadership to broader participation, while navigating persistent inflation, Fed policy ambiguity, and new risks and rewards in AI and CapEx-heavy industries.

Transcript

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

Say you always wanted to have a backyard oasis. Here's the thing, if you get smart with your money, you can do things like that. With Empower, you can start making the most out of your money so you can go out and live a little. Isn't that why we work so hard to have some fun with our money, like treating yourself to something special or spontaneously doing something extra for a loved one? So use Empower and get good at money so you can be a little bad. Join their 20 million customers today at empower.com, not an empower client, paid or sponsored.

Mazda has been named Consumer Reports safest new car brand. It starts with our approach. Every Mazda comes standard with proactive safety features so you're more aware of what's around you, more focused on the road ahead and ready before problems ever start. Mazda more of what matters most to you. Go to mazdausa.com to learn more. Consumer Reports does not endorse or promote any product.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Live from the NASDAQ Markets site right here in the heart of Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Big tech on deck. Some $12 trillion where the companies reporting their earnings next week. What to expect from these results after the volatility that we've already seen this week and odds of a rate hike steadily rising as oil prices trade near more than one month highs. What the Fed could signal about the future policy next week, how it could impact your money. Plus intel start post earnings reversal. What Amex results say about the high end consumer and is there any hope that SpaceX shares can lift off? The latest read on the recent IPO and why one analyst says the Elon Musk Innovation premium that's already priced in. I am Frank Holland in for Melissa Lee coming to you live from Studio B right here at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight we have Courtney Garcia Bono and Eisen, Mike Koh and Katarina Simonetti and executive director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. And we start with what could be a make or break week for the markets. Big tech names like Microsoft, Metta, Apple and Amazon, all of them set to report their earnings next week. We're showing you right there. Apple seeing some solid gains today ahead of that report, closing just a half a percent away from a record high. Investors will be keyed in for indications of how much capex these companies are planning for the year ahead. After all, news that Alphabet expects to spend more than originally forecast. It really sent those shares plunging yesterday, yesterday. So next week's results kind of Ease investor concerns where they caused the recent sell off to gather even more steam. Courtney, I'm going to start with you right here. What do you think? We've got some big names coming up and I want to point this out. Microsoft actually reports on the day of the Fed meeting, as we know, interest rates. All of a sudden that's a big part of the big tech story, correct?

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

Yeah. And I think CapEx, that's really what investors are worried about right now because you're seeing if Alphabet is any sort of indication, they increase their capex year over year 101% and then you saw Tesla come out and they increase it by over 140% year over year and you're just seeing this huge race toward artificial intelligence and no one really knows when that's going to become profitable for these companies even though their core businesses are profitable now that actually had a negative cash flow. So I think you're really just starting to to be concerned about this and I think if it's any indication if that continues for these companies next week they probably are going to get hit. And that's where Apple may be interesting because they're one of the few who hasn't had this huge capex spending that a lot of their competitors have. So absolutely something to watch this week. But it is a concern especially because they all said that they are going to substantially increase their capex in 2027 and what that means we don't know yet.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Katrina, are you sure on those concerns? I mean we're talking about capex but I also want to go back to Alphabet because we mentioned it huge growth in their cloud business and also I just want to talk about earnings for a second. Elsa came out with the numbers. Earnings for the quarter are going to be 38% higher but if you look at tech up about 66, 67%, communication services up about 112% we're talking about earnings growth. So should we be focused on the CapEx or these other factors that can move the market?

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

Well I think most importantly investors are starting to really care about CapEx and we went from the momentum where like we were talking about picks and shovels and building up infrastructure and now it seems that the focus has shifted to monetization. What is demand for your services? What is the competition? Can older type of AI can be used because it's cheaper or this newest top edge technology has a demand and you will be able to place it but most importantly at what point all these investments that they're making in Their businesses is going to turn into earnings and that is top of mind for investors.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah, a lot of people talking about Capex might go. A lot of people talking about this other phrase, return on invested capital.

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

That's exactly, yeah.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

You know, it's interesting. I would probably just draw a little bit of a distinction between companies like Tesla and companies like Alphabet. You know, Courtney was talking about the fact that some of the Capex coming out of Tesla was a little higher than expected. But in terms of orders of scale, it's really quite small compared to some of the other names we're talking about. I mean we're really looking at a little over 5 billion bucks in Capex and they ended up with about a negative billion for the quarter in free cash flow. You know, in the case of something like Alphabet number one, I think they actually have a way to monetize all of this. I think that is a positive. The second thing is that a lot of those companies like the Alphabets of the world, Microsoft, Amazon, when they spend big, if it turns out, Metta, I should also add, if these companies spend really big and it turns out that they're not monetizing as effectively, they are very good organic free cash flow generators on their own. So, you know, I think Alphabet and Amazon and Meta all have a way to monetize this and the worst thing that could potentially happen is that they overspend a little bit is companies like Oracle and Tesla where it's a little bit harder to see how it's going to work. In Oracle's case, obviously the news between Open and Microsoft this week was a little bit troubling because makes you wonder where those dollars are going to come from that they have contracted with Open Air.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

You know Bono, when Mike said, you know, it'd be bad if they overspent a little bit, but I think there's so many concerns about that return on invested capital all the way going back to when Alex Karp was right here on cnbc, actually here at the NASDAQ on Squawk Box. Just talking about a lot of companies, they're not only concerned about the return on capital, but they're concerned about losing their IP which may just kind of lead to a longer term disruption in this whole trade.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Yes, I mean that's a great point. Mike did a great job kind of juxtaposing some of the different cohorts. One name that was left off was Microsoft. So I'll call attention there. I think there's two drivers there. One, you know, if Alphabet is any indication you would expect there to be robust cloud revenue growth there. Right. So that's one vertical that they have. And then you mentioned IP and kind of connectivity within the enterprise cohort and I think Microsoft is really there. The third thing that I'll mention is just the price action leading into an earnings sprint and quarterly results. So Microsoft has been a laggard. A lot of us has mentioned it bellwether nonetheless and I think that perhaps the price action leading into the quarter may actually serve them well. I mean it's tough to kind of call it. I think you can't ignore Alphabet's results. Clearly capex is going to continue to accelerate and you're in a situation now where you're in more or less of an arms race where you can't afford to fall behind. I would say Apple has kind of bucked that trend but that is not a hyperscaler. It's a seven company but its business model is strategically very different than the, the, the rest of the groups in the name of.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, thanks Bono. I just want to come back to you, let you respond. One other factor when Alphabet, I don't know if you mentioned it here on a previous show but they also issued about $40 billion in new equity. So that's certainly another factor when it comes to the stock. But I want to go back to Microsoft as well. Reports on the day of the Fed decision that could also be a factor. But what about Bono and point about Microsoft that maybe it's a favorable entry point into the print.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

Yeah and I do think you want to look at it. I don't think this, this trade is over. I just also don't know if this is going to outperform the way it has been because you're see cash flow is moving from the hyperscalers into the chip makers. And I also think you're seeing things like your mid caps and your small caps. Those forward earnings are also reaching all time highs. There's so many areas of the market that you want to take a look at. So yes I do think these can be entry opportunities when these pullback because this trade isn't over. But I don't think you want to ignore the rest of the market because this broadening that has happened I think is going to continue and today is a really good example of that where you're seeing the equal weight S and P is outperforming the S&P 500. So even though we talk about these exciting hyperscalers and you know the, the more sexy names there's so many other ones that are doing really well right now and I don't ignore that either.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah, broading trade has been kind of outperforming the market cap with S and P for quite a bit.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

Yeah.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

But want to turn back to Apple for a minute for more on what we can expect when Apple reports on Thursday. I want to bring in our Mackenzie Sagalos Mac.

[Mackenzie Sagalos (Morgan Stanley Analyst)]

So Frank, it is a hugely symbolic quarter For Apple, Tim Cook's final earnings report as CEO after 15 years at the helm. But Wall street, its focus is really going into this print on whether Apple can use price increases to see lift earnings even as unit growth slows. Morgan Stanley expects a modest June quarter beat, but sees more upside in September as higher prices across devices and services offset slightly lower unit sales. The Bank's revenue and EPS forecasts for next year are 8% above consensus and it raised its price target to $364, about 9% above where shares trade now. Apple may also be making those increases easier to absorb. A new upgrade program reportedly launches two days before earnings, letting customers spread a higher stick price across the monthly payment. The trade off of course is margin pressure. Component costs are rising quickly and Morgan Stanley estimates that Apple may need to charge $200 more for the iPhone 18 Pro just to preserve a 40% gross margin. But China again expected to be a bright spot with demand improving and July iPhone sell through back to double digit growth. Baird also raising its price target, saying it expects iPhone revenue up 22% this quarter. But at roughly 34 times forward earnings, there is little room for disappointment as Cook rounds out his 10 CEO Frank

[Frank Holland (Host)]

all right Mac, thank you very much. Mackenzie Segal is the very latest on Apple. Bono, I want to come over to you. What is your take on this Apple report coming up next week?

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Given the price action that we've seen in the other large captive technology names, the fact that Apple hasn't invested so heavily in capex I think sets up favorably. I can't argue against the valuation. 35, 36 times forward is tough but if you look at that last quarter we're talking about 16, 17% top line growth and I believe was 20 to 22% expected. On the bottom line, the argument against Apple is that it's been a bond like compounder for so long and hasn't had that growth. So as long as it can continue to do that and can continue to expand margins as it's done last quarter, I think there is still an argument to be made that it is viewed as having a higher margin of safety in an AI related or tech related sell off.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Katerina, coming over to you. Apple trading about 3,436 times forward earnings. As Bono mentioned, by the way, the market's trading at about 20 times forward earnings. So it seems like that's a pretty high bar for this earnings report.

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

Well, the question is, as Courtney said, it's not where the valuation is currently. Is can it actually continue to grow at the level it has been and setting realistic expectations because over the last couple of years what we're seeing is overcrowding in one security, overcrowding in one space. And while we still like our hyperscalers and we like the tech, you know, we're by no means are saying that we need to abandon the sector. How much of it is appropriate for a well balanced portfolio portfolio that is not only managed for growth but also for risk.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, huge earnings week coming up next week for the Mag 7 UPS as well. I'll be talking to the UPS CEO next week as well. All right, now turning to the oil market. WTI crude retreating 3% to settle below 90 bucks a barrel. The latest move amid reports that Pakistan is looking to restart talks between the US And Iran. Our Eamon Javers joins us with the very latest on this story. Amen.

[Eamon Javers (Reporter)]

Yeah, Frank, and the big question here is will we see more negotiations or will we see more intensified military action over the weekend? We just heard from the president in the Oval Office the past hour. He was asked about comments he made to Axios saying he's considering a massive attack that would be like nothing they've seen before military escalation. His answer? You know, he certainly doesn't deny it. He says he's ready to go but doesn't say what exactly he's decided. Here's what he said.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

We are talking to them right now. Look, there are two ways. I consider that the smarter way, but the other is probably the easier way doing what we're doing. And we can take that to a much higher level if we want to. You know, we're prepared to do that. As you know, we're locked and loaded. Locked and loaded and ready to go.

[Eamon Javers (Reporter)]

So Frank, you hear the president there saying that the United States is locked and loaded. No indication of what he's decided yet. So we'll watch that over the next 48 hours. The other big question on a lot of investors mind is this Saudi nuclear deal. Remember the president, his administration signed off on this Saudi nuclear deal earlier in the week, signing an agreement with the Saudis to allow civilian nuclear power in that country, not military. And then we saw the president the next day come out and say, well, actually no, there's some conditions on this deal. The Saudis have to sign off on the Abraham Accords and recognize the nation of Israel in order for this deal to go through. The problem was the deal had already gone through. It had already been signed. And there's really not a way, as far as we can tell, for the president to claw that deal back unless Congress is to override him. So the president trying to put some conditions retroactively on the deal. He was asked about that in the Oval Office today. You know, I reread the transcript of his answers. It's not clear whether he's withdrawing that condition or not. Seems like maybe he might be, but really not clear where that one stands right now.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Frank?

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah, a lot of questions when it comes to the straight up for moves in just that entire area. Our amen jabbers. Thank you very much for that report, Mike Co, when I come over to you.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

Yeah, it's interesting on the back of that, obviously we did see oil sell off a little bit. If we take a look at the options markets, you know, you've got WTI up. I think maybe Brent is probably the better analog for what's going on. And the most active contracts there traded about 20% above average put volume. It was the SEP 85 and 82 strike puts that were trading in Brent. Some people are betting that there could be further downside. The problem with these negotiations, though, seems like there's multiple factions there and you can maybe agree with one or two of them and still have another three that you have to contend with. So I'm going to wait and see before I really start pressing shorts on crude here.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah, looking at Brent CRU right now down about two and a third percent. All right now to a developing story. Paramount skydance down over 3% late in the day after agreeing to delay its planned merger with Warner Brothers discovery. Our Julia Boorstin joins us now with the details. Julia?

[Julia Boorstin (Reporter)]

That's right, Frank. Big news here. Paramount has agreed to delay the Warner Brothers merger until June 1, 2027, unless a judge issues a ruling before then. This means that the ticking fee that Paramount agreed to pay to Warner Brothers shareholders if the deal closing is delayed beyond September 30th is likely to go into effect. Now. Paramount has to agree to pay the equivalent of about $7 million a day starting after September 30, which means by June, end of June, Paramount could be paying an additional $1.7 billion for Warner Brothers discovery. Now, despite that additional payment, Paramount calls this clarity a win. Paramount saying in a statement, quote, today's agreement is a significant win because the result is exactly what we have sought from the outset, a direct path to a trial. Based on the evidence, this is the fastest and clearest way to prove that this transaction is good for competition. Now, New York Attorney General Letitia James also calls this a win, saying, quote, halting this merger while our case proceeds is a critical victory in our efforts to uphold the law and protect the film and television industries. Fees Paramount is paying over $110 billion for Warner Brothers discovery, including debt before any ticking fees if the deal falls apart, Paramount is committed to paying a $7 billion breakup fee. And remember, it paid a $3 billion breakup fee to Netflix. So, Frank, this is one to watch as this trial progresses.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah, certainly one to watch. We're looking at Paramount's guidance shares pulling back about 3%. Julia, thank you very much. Bono, I want to come over to you. Your take on the idea of this delay and kind of an increased cost to acquire Warner Brothers if the deal does go through.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

I think considering the debt that the new entity would have, I. Yes, I can understand that getting a clear path to a resolution and going through the proper legal channels is considered a win on its front, but I think if I'm purely focused on the quantitative metrics, essentially paying, what is it, 15 to 20% of what the breakup would feed. Breakup fee would be as a ticking fee. I don't know how I can see that as a marginal positive.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, Courtney, your take on this. Obviously, this asset, Warner Brothers Discovery, Netflix wanted it, then Paramount, Skydance basically fought them for it tooth and nail. Now they're on the path to having it, but it just could be more expensive.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

Yeah, I mean, I think looking at these kind of fees and the fact that it is stalling, I don't think this is something that I'd be jumping into from a stock perspective. I don't think this is going to create some sort of catalyst of a reason to be in there. So I think it's something to follow. Absolutely. Because you're right, this is a, like a jewel that everybody wanted and was bidding over. But with these kind of fees, I would. I would hang tight here and watch this.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah. By the way, since Paramount Skydance reached the deal to get Warner Brothers, those shares are down more than 25%. All right, coming up, a semi stumble intel given up its post earnings gains. What changed after last night's results to send those shares sharply lower. Plus a hard landing for SpaceX with the stock closing at fresh lows. So we're going to dig into one bold variable. Wall street call that any good news might already be priced into this one. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back in just two.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

You're watching Fast Money here on cnbc. We'll be right back.

Are you as confident as you should be when it comes to growing your business? Is your strategy ready to execute today? If cash flows aren't where they need to be, growth could be at risk, especially in the eyes of your investors, board members and the business press. But when your business is operating in top shape, you've earned the right to grow. Ey Parthenon can help you reimagine your business and execute a game plan for long term growth solutions that work in practice, not just on paper.

It's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one you can set earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover you can get this Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See [e-mail] credit card did you know

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

that skincare can start in the laundry room? Allfreeclear is the number one laundry detergent brand recommended by dermatologists, allergists and pediatricians for sensitive skin. All Freeclear is 100% free of dyes and perfumes.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

It provides an effective clean that's gentle

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

on skin while removing impurities like dirt and body oil without leaving irritating residues. Plus, all free clear liquid is safer choice certified by the US EPA for a clean you can feel good about.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All you need is All Free Clear. And welcome back to Fast Money. Shares at Qualcomm dropping over 2% today. The company reportedly warning customers that prices could rise by double digits due to higher input costs. The change will apply to products shipped after September the first, and that's according to the ftse. Qualcomm reports earnings on Wednesday after the bell shares are down 35% from their 52 week high court.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

What I find interesting about this is you've seen the same thing from Apple with their memory chips where this actually could be one of the causes of inflation. So we're talking a lot about oil prices and that that may be spiking inflation. But you bring up that the Fed is meeting next week. So if we see oil spiking you also see inflation. This could be a reason why the Fed either can't lower rates or may have to raise rates in the future. That's why you're seeing those expectations of Fed rate hikes actually rising here. I don't actually rise this week, but I do think all of these inputs, the more you hear this, the more it makes the Fed's job a little more difficult.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Mike, over to you.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

Yeah, I mean, as far as Fed rate hikes are concerned, I think if anybody is looking for a barometer on whether that's likely or not, probably the best indicator you're going to get is the same one that we've had for the last quarter of a century now, which is the two year Treasury. So the two year treasury has been ticking up consistently since the strikes in the Middle east. And I think the chances of any kind of a rate cut this year are essentially nil. And the chances of a rate hike at this point are actually quite good. So, you know, I wouldn't hold out any hope that the meeting's going to deliver any good news for investors on that front necessarily. Now, of course, a lot of these inflationary pressures are idiosyncratic though, and so I'm not exactly sure what a Fed rate hike would actually do to resolve them, particularly those inflationary pressures that are driven by higher energy costs.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah, absolutely. Also, we get PC next week after cpi. Previously a couple of weeks ago, Kevin War said it's not mission accomplished, it was at 3.5. So we have to wait and see what he says this time around. All right. Meantime, a big reversal in shares of intel today. The stock which was up double digits last night after earnings, it actually ended the day down nearly 8% despite posting its best revenue growth in nearly 15, 15 years. The stock now down five weeks in a row and has lost 35% since hitting a record high last month. Bono, and over to you.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

In all cases, I think you really need to kind of focus on where the stock is coming from as opposed to in a particular vacuum. And as you mentioned, the stock has had a tremendous run. There is no argument against the tremendous quarter that they had. With that said, they have again committed to reigniting capex. And I think that the concerns around FAB still persists. I think that one investor cohort takes this capex spending as confidence that they are seeing the customer acquisition, the customer expansion, the TAM all growing. On the other hand, it is not, it is not immune from the same criticism that the other hyperscalers or that the hyperscalers are facing in terms of overspending Capex and they simply don't have the same fortress balance sheet position that those other Capex spenders are coming from. So I expect this to come under quite a bit of scrutiny.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Katerina, coming over to you, your thoughts about chips in general. We often, I often at least call the hyperscalers the check writers. These guys are the check cashiers. But they've been under some pressure and

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

it's also is the case of selling the news at some point because the overall news is positive. But when you look at the hyperscalers and overall crowding of the tech space, majority of the investors have their tech concentrated in these few names, the seven names, just like the S and P. So the ask to add another tech name despite of fantastic earnings, despite of the nice projections and the fact that they have all these contracts lined up, it is still a heavy ask because the investors are fascinated and in love with the stocks that brought them such success. But what they need to do and what our message is is the broadening of the market comes also with broadening of exposure not only as a global, you know, the global scale, but also within each sector, including technology.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, well, there's a lot more to come right here on Fast Money. Here's what's coming up next.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

Houston, we have a problem. SpaceX shares hitting more turbulence after a cautious analyst call. Why? Analysts say that even with an Elon Musk premium, the stock could stay grounded plus an inflation wake up call. One top forecaster warning Wall street is underestimating risks to the economy and says the Fed could be running out of time to act. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

It's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one. You can set earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously, all of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show, see [e-mail] credit card.

Yeah, maxing is so maxing right now, bro. Get ready for spicy chicken maxing because Carl's Jr. Is saving you big with a 5.99 maxed out double stack.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Double stack.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

Double stack spicy chicken sandwich. Seriously, just 5.99 double stack spicy chicken. This is unreal value in the bromosphere. The new spicy chicken Max wallet friendly Max tasty only at Carl's Jr available for a limited time at participating restaurants. Tact not included. Not valid for use within a combo or a combination with any other offered discount.

[Julia Boorstin (Reporter)]

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

[Frank Holland (Host)]

I have no fear of failure.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

Trailblazing women Changing the game One of

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

my favorite pieces of advice Think about what your boss's boss needs.

[Mackenzie Sagalos (Morgan Stanley Analyst)]

Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

And welcome back to Fast Money and our Call of the day HSBC initiating Space X with a hold rating and a $115 price target that is $0.07 below where the stock closed today. Analysts saying SpaceX shares are fully valued even when taken into account the so called Elon Musk Innovation Premium. It sounds better when you say it like that. SpaceX shares dropping almost 3% today and are trading at half of what they were at their post IPO highs. Mike, I want to come over to you.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

You know, first of all, I'd like to know what the Elon Premium actually is. Because if you take a look at the premium that Tesla has relative to Ford, let's just say for the sake of argument, 1.6 million cars, $1.2 trillion valuation. So you've had a 750, $800,000 enterprise value per vehicle sold for Tesla versus probably 12 and a half grand for Ford. So that's a 60x premium that Tesla enjoys over Ford. Is that Elon? Is that full self driving? Hard to say, but the premium should be material. In SpaceX's case, it's the play in the space. 97% of the mass thrown into orbit from the United States is coming from SpaceX. There isn't really a comp, but if there was one Rocket Lab or something like that, and you threw 60 times valuation on Rocket Lab, that would get you to about a $2.4 trillion valuation. So I'm not really sure that it's undeserving of the premium it enjoys.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Mike, you're doing a lot of math really quick, but the price target's 115. Stock's at 115 right now. So are you agreeing with the call or not agreeing with the call?

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

I'm not really agreeing with the call. I think if you want to play in this space, pardon the pun, this is really the only way to do it. That's the thing. So if you're interested in Elon, you're interested in participating in space. They put 90% of the mass in orbit up there. So it's really the only game in town.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, Courtney, I want to come over to you just by the way, by the way, HSBC with the call of the day. But Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley, somebody who, you know, I think has a really good view on Elon Musk companies in general. His price targets at 300. He also says at 100 bucks a share, SpaceX would trade at about 16 times forward PE for fiscal year 28, which kind of reframes the way you can look at the company.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

Yeah. And I think Mike is right here. I think it has like, how do you really compare this to anything else? And investors are willing, which you've seen too, with Tesla put a much higher premium on this than the valuations would typically justify. So I think that's where this becomes a little hard to reconcile. And I think the next two big catalysts here are their next earnings report, which I believe is August 4th. And then you're going to get a little later here when some of your early investors do have the opportunity to sell. I think seeing how it trades at those two point of times, I think will give us a little bit more of an indication of where that valuation should lie. So I think investors who are in here, they're in here for the long run. They're in here because it's Elon Musk Company because of the innovations. We can look at the valuations all day long. It's just not going to trade on that. And that's what makes it so hard to discuss here from our financial standpoint.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

And by the way, even Adam Jones, he kind of agreeing with you as the lockup end is going to put even more pressure on the stock. At least he believes it could.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

Right?

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, coming up here on Fast Money, it's not just earnings on deck next week. It's a pivotal Fed meeting looming as investors look for clues on the road ahead for interest rates. We're going to dive into what's at stake when Fast Money returns.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

Moment of fast Catch us anytime on the go follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

And welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks kind of mixed and the week. The Dow adding 230 points. The S and P close to the flat line. The Nasdaq down losing over a half a percent. Tenant Healthcare soaring 17% for its best day in almost six years. The company beating earnings expectations and raising its full year guidance citing outperformance in both its hospital and ambulatory surgery center segments. Uber however, sinking over 4% late in the session. The FTSE reporting that Google's Waymo is exploring an end to its partnership with the rideshare company as tensions deepening between the Robotaxi competitors. Uber now trading at more than the 52 week low. Meantime, sales of new homes unexpectedly rising in June. The latest data showing sales of 628,000, 10,000 more than the prior month and well above estimates that help homebuilder stocks rally. Today we're talking NBR, PulteGroup, Lennar and Toll Brothers among the big winners. Katerina, come over to you. Kind of important to note mortgage rates pretty much the same as they were last year.

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

So what do you think they are? But they are potentially expected to go higher again. It all comes back to oil prices. All comes back to the Fed policy. And what you see right now is buyers and sellers are kind of rushing to conclude this real estate deals because if mortgage rates are going to start hiking like we've seen in the past, it is going to make a major difference. So we're not quite sure what's going to happen there. There is a lot of uncertainty, but we see that action on anticipation driven by the consumer fear.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Also a little bit of timing there. If you have kids and you want to move in by the time school starts, you got to buy that house right now.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

All right.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

It's not just earnings on our radar next week. The Fed delivers its decision on interest rates on Wednesday. The second under Kevin was the recent rise in oil prices and treasury yields certain to weigh on the central bank. Let's bring in market forecaster Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. Jim, thank you for joining us. So, so what is the forecast here? If I'm looking at the CME Fed watch tool, 62% of a pause, 60% chance of a pause. I should say 38% chance of a hike.

[Jim Bianco (Market Forecaster)]

I think that that is an extraordinary number. 38% chance of a hike because we're three trading days away from the Fed meeting. Normally before wash, that number would either be 0 to 2% or 98 to 100%. And the fact that it is 38% tells you that there's tremendous uncertainty about what he's going to do. This is the Wash Fed not offering any forward guidance. There is no leak to a media personality to tell us whether the Fed's going to do this or that. So we're left guessing as to where the Fed's going to go. Also, I think what you should expect is there probably will be a vote for a rate hike and it'll get somewhere between, I'll say four and seven votes. If it gets seven votes, we'll have a rate hike next week. But even if we don't get a rate hike, you might see 3, 4 or 5 descents for rate hikes. So this is very different Fed than what we're used to over the last many decades. Right now it's 12 independent voters and they're all going in different directions.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, so a lot of people in the market, including you, believe that we could see a rate hike coming up in September. Your question is, is it going to be too late by then? I want to ask too late for exactly what? Now, I'm looking at some of the data here. Initial jobless claims lowest. And I had to check this a couple times since 1969. Inflation headline at three and a half percent, but core down to 2.6. And then I'm looking at ISM Manufacturing today. Six months of expansion. Last time that happened was back in 2022. So too late for what? To hike.

[Jim Bianco (Market Forecaster)]

The economy is doing okay. As you mentioned, a 57 year low in initial claims and all of the other data and even the housing data. Today there's no worry about a recession. Now that may change next week or next month or in two years. But right now there's no worry about a recession and we have north of 3% inflation. What that means is that the neutral Fed funds rate is moving higher. If the Fed sits tight, they're easing. If the price of gasoline is going up and you're going to stimulate the economy so people can afford the price of gasoline, it's going to shoot higher and higher. You need to keep the funds rate near neutral, neutrals moving up. It should go higher. I would actually posit, and I've been arguing this as aligned, an old adage on Wall street, bond investors can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking. Kevin Warsh said inflation is a choice. We'll choose to do something about it. And if you hike rates maybe as early as next week, the long end of the yield curve, bond yields might calm down if you keep arguing, no, we shouldn't do it or we should wait and wait and wait. It could be like 2022. They waited way too long before they start raising rates. Bond investors lost confidence and rates went soaring at that point.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, so you're talking about bond investors losing confidence right now, the 10 year of 4.68. Is that the sign that bond investors are losing confidence? Katerina just mentioned the potential at least for mortgage rates to go up as well.

[Jim Bianco (Market Forecaster)]

Yeah, well, 4.68, the highest it's been in the second term of Trump, if you want to use that metric, was yesterday at 4.71. So we're at a 20 month high in yields. We're not that far in the 30 year, just a handful of basis points away from a 19 year high in yields. So those yields have been creeping higher with the expectations of higher inflation driven by higher gasoline prices because of what's happening in the Middle East. And there's the Hope is that 38% is not far from 50. Maybe the Fed will choose to do something about inflation and calm the bond market down. If not, and they want to keep telling us why they don't need to do it or ise going to produce productivity miracles and that we don't have to worry about inflation, bond investors might run for the exits and you could see vastly higher interest rates.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, so you're a forecast. Jim, one last forecast. We've got to get out of here. Is there any chance the Fed will see this energy inflation? Because that's one of the big stories here as quote, unquote transitory. I know we don't really say that word anymore, but any chance of that? There is a chance of that.

[Jim Bianco (Market Forecaster)]

That they could. I think it would be a mistake. You can always raise rates because of energy going up and if it goes back down, you could cut rates later. There's nothing to stop them from doing that. But if they want to think it's transitory, you're right. They don't have a good track record when it comes to using that word. And I'd be very careful in trying it again.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Yeah, I think everybody has some painful memories of the term transitory. Jim Bianco, great to see you. Have a great weekend. Bono, thank you. Over to you.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Well, it's really a question of whether or not this Fed is going to be given the the opportunity to establish themselves independently of the prior administration. Right. If they essentially feel pressure from the missteps that Bianco is referring to, then there is going to be this upward pressure. And this 36 or 38% probability is probably, if we're handicapping it to right now, it's probably around accurate. The real question is you don't want to slam on the brakes prematurely. So I'm kind of with consensus in terms of I think there's a higher probability of it happening, it's unlikely to happen next meeting. But I do think that perhaps if they are going to hold true and they are trying to reestablish credibility, I don't think this can get too far from neutral.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, Mike, going to come over to you. Your take on all this. We were talking a little bit earlier about the two year old kind of being an indicator of what the Fed may or may not do.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

Yeah, I mean, it's been the best indicator of what the Fed may or may not do for the last 25 years. And look, if you take up, you know, people often think of rates sort of, you know, moving lockstep. But actually my view is that if they act a little more hawkish and we see perhaps a 25 basis point rise, which by the way isn't slamming the brakes on, but indicates a willingness to try to make sure that you're preserving a lower rate of inflation, that could actually help suppress rates on the long end. And for a lot of areas of the economy that could be a good thing. We were talking about homebuilders before and you don't want to see, you know, the 30 year bond, for example, shooting up towards 6%. We're already at almost 5.2. So from my perspective, I think a 25 basis point increase is warranted. I think it's the right thing to do and I think it'll probably stabilize the long end.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Courtney, agreement, I don't know if they

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

really need to be hiking in the near term because I think a lot of the inflationary pressures, a lot of those are sector specific. And so I think what you needed to figure out is, is a rate hike really going to tamp down on that? But these are in fact there. I mean, the fact that we're seeing energy prices come up, the fact that we're seeing some of the inflation, I think it is something to worry about. So I think there is less, you know, less to no likelihood of cuts this year. I don't know if hikes are warranted at least thus far. So I think when they meet next week, we'll probably see them stand pat. But something to continue to watch later

[Frank Holland (Host)]

this year, that decision coming up on Wednesday. All right, coming up here on FAST MONEY, ups, earnings out for delivery, what to expect from the shipping stock as it reports on Tuesday and how to tackle the transports right now. Fast money's back right after this break

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

as our country celebrates its 250th anniversary CNBC spotlights the leaders driving business and the nation forward.

[M]

If I were to Describe the last 250 years of business and enterprise in our country, it would be entrepreneurial. From the earliest days of the Founding Fathers. Their DNA is what I think triggered so much of the success of businesses in America. They were underdogs, underestimated with a bold vision that I don't think anyone thought could ever be achieved in those days. They believed in a new form of government that included individual liberty, self rule, equality, and created an entirely new country. And I think that DNA runs into the business community that we have here in the United States. The United States is absolutely filled with risk takers and I think that's probably one of the most important attributes of our culture. It's that entrepreneurial spirit that continues to evolve our country generation after generation, from the earliest days in farming and manufacturing to the scaling of our country from the industrialists and the technology entrepreneurs that continue to turn the world upside down. It's that entrepreneurial spirit that keeps pushing our country forward.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Railroad stocks chugging in new records and posting a fifth straight week of gains. We're talking Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern and CSX all up double digits since the start of the month. By the way, record high trucking rates moving more of that volume onto the rails. Katerina, you got a thought about the transports?

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

Well, Frank, it's really interesting because I do have a very strong opinion on transports. I love the sector. I think everybody should have exposure to it. Transports outperformed S and P by 12% just over the last couple of months. But when you ask an average investor what is your exposure to transports, they're going to say, I don't know, quite frankly, because we're not looking at it this way. And this is a great case for broadening of exposure to these sectors like transports, like consumer discretionary, like industrials, in specific areas of industrials. But I think the sector is, has a lot of potential and we should look at it more closely as we continue to focus on stock picking.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

So by the way, as we look at rails right now, the LTL sector kind of a subsector in the transports, big outperformance this year. Names like XPO, Old Dominion, etc. And we have some more earnings transports on tap. We talked about it just a bit ago. We're talking about ups. The reports on Tuesday. Mike co. What is the options market saying about ups?

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

Yeah, so right now the implied move, at least as far as the options markets are concerned, is about a 7% move higher or lower by the end of next week after they report earnings. Now that's a lot more than it has moved the last two reported quarters. But that's in line with the longer term earnings related choppiness that we've been seeing in the name calls. Outpace puts by about 2 to 1. And that continues a theme that we've been seeing for about the last three trading weeks. And one of the most active contracts was the 15-8-1 calls. Those we saw among other big trades, a 400 lot of those being purchased against actually selling the near dated weekly options idea. There is people are trying to capitalize on these elevated options premiums but making longer term bullish bets in the name.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, I'm going to do one more shameless plug. Mike, hope you don't mind. I'm interviewing Carol to me the CEO of UPS next week on Tuesday after earnings. Bottom I want to come over to you.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Yes, I think this rotation or broadening out does continue. I mean it's hard to argue against the momentum, particularly in the short and intermediate term. But I will say is I would keep an eye on where these companies are valued because if you look at transports or even if you look at XLI any of the old economy, these valuations versus their 10 year median and versus the S& P are starting to get expensive. So if you think that earnings can continue to persist and that growth continues to persist, well, I think this trade really has legs. But when you start looking at that valuation and some safety that was priced in in terms of rotating out of higher rotation, higher valuation parts of the market to lower valuation parts of the market, that particular trade opportunity is no longer there yet.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

To your point, UPS trading about 15 times forward earnings. Also FedEx trading at about 15 times forward earnings. All right, coming up, reading the receipts, the encouraging spending signals in the American Express results and why the stock is not getting any credit more fast coming up in two minutes. Welcome Back to Fast Money. American Express falling 4% today after kind of mixed Q2 earnings. The credit card company said revenue growth for the year will come in at the high end of its forecast range. But investors were hoping for even stronger sales. The stocks posted six straight days of losses and also notched its worst week since February.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

Courtney, I think some of this too has to do with the fact that guidance wasn't raised and I think people were hoping that you were going to see an improvement there. But some of that also may be just some reinvestment from outperformance in the first quarter. So I don't know how much of that is justified. But when I look at them, they have a really good read on specifically the affluent customer who has continued to spend. And I think that's one of the biggest read throughs that you saw with American Express, which is retiring. You're seeing the transports are doing well, things are transporting across the economy, the consumer is holding up. You saw this with bank of America spending details as well. So I think all of this leads to likely less of a recessionary risk. And that's I think the biggest thing that I see when I look at, at these earnings numbers.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

So, Katerina, I agree.

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

I think it's all about the consumer confidence. And when there are so many risks out in the market, right, like geopolitical risks, interest rate risks, consumers are a little bit more hesitant to spend. And what we need here is this confidence that the market and earnings and like this great economic projections that we're showing actually is something that is going to come to fruition, which we think it would. But when it comes to spending, and especially spending on credit, this is where a lot of consumers, you know, put a pause and they would say maybe I will delay the spending. And we see that in forward looking projections and without strong forward looking projections, of course, you know, we see the data as, you know, is what they post to post it.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Finally.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Yeah, I think back to the SAS apocalypse and the concern about that upper cohort losing their spinning capacity. And I think that if nothing else, this earnings print has told us that that is really unfounded. So I'd probably be looking for an opportunity to start establishing a position. I mean, I'm not going to fight against recent trends or recent type of flows. But I think that they have shown that they are going to continue to be just fine. I'm okay with them not raising guidance. I'd prefer particularly as it pertains to facing customer spending. I prefer a more modest or conservative type of approach.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

Mike, 15 times earnings, strongest in the space in terms of their base. So I would be a buyer here.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

All right, American Express again, kind of mixed stock pulling back. Coming up next, we got your final trade. Stay with us.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

Anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Frank Holland (Host)]

Time for final trade. Let's go around the horn, Katerina.

[Katarina Simonetti (Morgan Stanley Executive Director)]

Banks make money in the high interest rate environment. Financials is my pick. Banking activity is up. M and A activity is up and higher. For longer is here to stay.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

Bottling.

[Bono (Likely Courtney Garcia Bono or another analyst)]

Yeah, I'm concerned about rates as well higher for longer, so I wouldn't be chasing XHP, but Dharma can compete on volume.

[Mike Koh (Analyst)]

Mike 5% free cash flow yield, 14% year on year adjusted EPS growth and less than 19 times earnings United held Courtney, last word.

[Courtney Garcia Bono (Analyst)]

I think taking a look at small caps here is something you absolutely want to be a part of, especially if this broadening does in fact continue. Make sure that you have a piece

[Frank Holland (Host)]

of this thanks for watching. Fast Money Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.

[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer yeah, maxing is

so maxing right now bro. Get ready for Spicy chicken maxing because Carl's Jr. Is saving you big with a 5.99 max staff double stack Double Stack Double Stack Spicy Chicken sandwich seriously. Just $5.99 double stack spicy Chicken this is unreal value in the bromosphere. The new Spicy Chicken Max Wallet Friendly Max Tasty only at Carl's junior Home. Available for a limited time at participating restaurants, tacked on, included. Not valid for use within a combo or a combination with any other offered discount.