← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Apple Reports Results… And Crude Climbs Amid Middle East Tensions 1/29/26
00:43:36
Big tech earnings roll on with Apple reporting results. The numbers from their latest quarter, and what Fast Money friend Gene Munster thinks of the recent rout in the software space. Plus Crude prices surging as Mideast tensions ramp up. How the U.S. may respond, and what one oil analyst sees in store for the energy sector. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Transcript157 lines
- [00:01]
A
At Strayer University, we help students like you. Go from will I to why not? For over 130 years, we've been innovating higher education to make it more affordable.
- [00:11]
B
Accessible and attainable so you can reach your goals. Go from thinking can I?
- [00:17]
A
To yes I can and keep striving.
- [00:20]
B
Visit strayer.edu to learn more. Strayer University is certified to operate in Virginia by CHEV and its many campuses, including at 2121 15th Street north in Arlington, Virginia. Looking for a Valentine's gift she'll truly love? 1-800-Flowers.com knows what she wants. For 50 years, 1-800-Flowers.COM has helped guys get it right, delivering millions of fresh Valentine's roses nationwide with high quality bouquets guaranteed to last. Right now, when you buy one dozen premium roses, they'll double your bouquet to two dozen for free. Valentine's is coming fast, so don't wait until the last minute. Double your blooms today at 1-800-flowers.com sxm. That's 1-800-flowers. Com sxm live for the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Golden Delicious. Apple notching a big beat on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, inciting staggering iPhone demand, but shares well off their after hours highs. What's behind this move? Plus the software slump in the regular session. Microsoft losing nearly $360 billion in market cap. Oracle hitting eight month lows. The IGV software ETF entering bear market territory. What drove the drop? And is there any relief in sight? The R in Karen's car sinks after earnings. You remember that one. United Rentals, Royal Caribbean shares set sail in crude oil. Top 66 bucks a barrel for the first time since September. How much room is left to run for this trade and what will it mean for the stocks? I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan and Laurie Calverton ahead of U.S. equity strategy at RBC. And we start off with those big Apple earnings. Shares are higher by just about a percent in the after hours. The iPhone maker handily beating revenue and earnings estimates, seeing double digit growth in iPhone sales, a sharp reversal from a year ago. The conference call kicking off just moments ago. Cnbc. Steve Kovac is in Cupertino with the very latest. Steve?
- [02:16]
C
Yeah, Mel, that call is just getting started and we're expecting to hear some commentary about forward looking guidance. And also there's memory prices that have been such a discussion about margin. So I'll be back on once we get more on that. In the meantime, yes, it was a big beat on EPS coming in at $2.84. That was a healthy beat. Revenue a big record here, up 16%, 143.76 billion. Another beat there. Services, they were up 14% to 30.01 billion. That was mostly in line with estimates. But China, I really want to point out greater China here, it was up a whopping 38%. I have not been able to say that on an Apple earnings call for quite some time now. China is 25.53 billion revenue for the quarter and I asked Tim Cook what was behind that because we've seen such a slag and sluggish sales over there in China for the last several quarters here. He said, quote, I think it's a result of the product resonating with the Chinese in a huge way. We just saw a lift that was much greater than we thought we would see and so we were surprised. But it's very product driven and, and they love the iPhone. That backs up so much of the anecdotal stuff that we've been seeing out there. Our contestant Brewer, for example, she was out in Macao last fall and sent me a video of just packed iPhone lines at the Apple store out there. We also talked about this new Google partnership on artificial intelligence with their Gemini system. And while Cook would not say what that financial deal looks like between these two companies, we did get into privacy and how this new partnership plays into Apple's privacy. Here's what he told me on that. We're not changing our privacy values. We still have the same architecture we announced before, which is on Device plus the private cloud Compute. So if you type something or use your voice, ask something that can be done on the device, it goes to the cloud and lots of both of those kinds of queries. So basically saying it's going to work as they originally advertised, just powered by this Gemini system. Call's just getting started guys. We're going to get that guidance and that commentary on the memory prices that I know everyone's eager. Meantime, we see the stock up here, 1% in after hours trading mill.
- [04:26]
B
All right, Steve, Thanks Steve Kovac. Obviously a couple of big questions Steve had highlighted still outstanding, which would in theory be answered on the conference call. But the stock going into earnings, the bar was very low. 8 week losing streak as we entered the week here. Tim, what do you make of the.
- [04:40]
D
Quarter so far I thought it was a fantastic quarter. Now the way the stocks trade in the aftermarket is a very small snapshot of time. It's going to be volatile, but it kind of tells you that while we had insane demand and I mean, you know, it was really strong iPhone demand, double digit, etc. But the 17% revenue growth is something that the market doesn't believe is sustainable. It's fascinating because the two parts that made this a great number, both the China component and just, you know, I think the anecdotal Google stuff is stuff that we've learned in the last couple of weeks during this period where Apple's had this eight straight down week. So we know memory is fine, we know memory is fine for the March quarter. We don't know it's fine for the second half of the year. Even though we assume, assume that Apple has the ability and the pricing power even with someone like Samsung who's about 70% of their memory, to actually be able to push suppliers around a little bit in an uncertain memory environment. I think it's services and I think it's memory that are the two things that are holding the stock back from what. Otherwise I think the stock should be a lot higher and I think it traded going into the numbers on weakness in services concerns there, I think these numbers were good, yeah, year over year.
- [05:44]
E
The China number, while Quebec just said it was 38% last Q1 fiscal 2025 was a disaster in China it was down like 11%. So you're coming off like on a comparison basis, like a really low compare. Right. So that's great. So China's come back a little bit, you know the story for Apple and maybe this is one of the reasons why Tim just mentioned like we know the things that were like pretty good there. It really comes down to what's going to happen in this June quarter as far as the release of Apple Intelligence and the upgraded Siri. And you could say they're all set up, look at the installed base that they have. People have upgraded these phones to the latest phones. I mean that being said, you're going to need, they're going to actually have a lot of this Siri on the device. I mean that is really their plan, right? It's about security and that sort of thing. So again it'll be really interesting because like for the last two years the excitement has been an upgrade cycle with Apple Intelligence. While they've already gotten, it seems like the upgrade cycle here, which maybe puts them in a great position and I Don't think there's any reason to sell it. I am surprised the Stock's only up 1%. I mean, look at the headlines. It is an amazing quarter.
- [06:47]
B
Yeah. What's your take?
- [06:49]
A
So I think it was a point that you brought on the 4 o' clock show about overtime, closing bell.
- [06:54]
B
Overtime.
- [06:55]
A
Right. About Tim Cook's lack of comment on the question about memory and him wanting to answer it later in the conference call. Which sort of leads one to believe maybe it's a bit of an issue. Maybe. I mean, if it is for them, it has to be for everybody else. To Tim's point about who's got, you know, negotiating power, but to the upgrade cycle, I think there's still a lot of room to go in the upgrade cycle, even though it was much better than I thought it would be and much better than I think the street thought it would be. So, I mean, there's a lot to like here. When you have a big revenue beat, usually good things happen. But in so many of these, you have to listen to the call. There's so much nuance there that can change things on a dime.
- [07:33]
B
Yes, absolutely. And we. Interesting to see the lack of reaction in Apple maybe given the huge reaction that we're seeing across the board. Laurie. I mean, look at the swings in Metta and Microsoft and then in the. After our session on SanDisk. Granted, this is not a blowout, the numbers blow off the doors kind of quarter for Apple, but still it's a very muted reaction compared to what we've seen in earnings season so far.
- [07:53]
F
What I think is really interesting about some of these big moves we've seen in some stocks, not all of them. This is what we used to get in small cap. And people would say they had pity on us because of the wild swings. We aren't used to this in large cap. It's been a relatively recent phenomenon that we get these kind of big swings. Look, it's been a very kind of squishy, soft start, start to reporting season. I feel like we're finally getting to the real part of reporting season with these big mega cap names. The whole debate on the street has been whether you quit them and it's ultimately going to be earnings that come through. Maybe at this point, what we're seeing, it's rotation within them. You have to pick and choose. But I kind of agree with Karen. You got to get to the call and see what they say.
- [08:29]
B
Yeah, an AI strategy roadmap. That's what a lot of people want to hear. Whether it Is Apple Intelligence, the revamp of Siri, which is supposed to be in the next couple of months or so.
- [08:38]
E
Listen, this is the perfect AI story now, okay? A couple of years ago it was all on the come, right? So these guys did not spend hundreds of billions of dollars like all the major hyperscalers to build out to train models, that sort of thing. So they're never going to have that sort of business. But what they do have is an installed base of 2 billion users and they're largely consumers, right? And if you think about how open AI and how the hyperscalers are going to monetize these businesses, it's going to be with the enterprise, right? So this might be, other than OpenAI, one of the first human huge success stories as it relates to the consumer. But we got to see what they roll out. We can all agree that whatever deals they do with OpenAI or Google Gemini, they're going to be great deals. They're working on the back of this infrastructure spend. But again, you know, you guys tell me, is it a cheap stock? What sort of earnings appreciation are they going to get? What sort of margin appreciation are they going to get? The agentic layer of AI will be one on this device and they're going to be the first ones to capture it from a consumer.
- [09:33]
D
Consumer.
- [09:33]
A
What about OpenAI device? I don't know.
- [09:36]
B
Oh, you mean the threat of a device.
- [09:39]
A
The threat's closer now.
- [09:40]
E
Good luck. It's not going to be an iPhone and people are not going to be ready for a pin or some sort of like little device.
- [09:47]
D
I thought the announcement on this, on the six with, with Google was, was the story. I mean, it was the 12th, it was two weeks ago. And I think that's the story. I think the setup here for, I mean, hearing that we have a revamped series, hardly something that gets me excited.
- [10:02]
B
It has to be revamped anyway.
- [10:03]
D
I mean, series a disaster. And Siri is listening and we'll probably turn my phone on just to spite me and have my ringer go off. But I think it's a case where the expectations here were so low. I still think first of all, the inelasticity around the ASP rises. In other words, people are spending more for an iPhone, gross margins holding in. We have to figure out how they can continue to grow services. I think that's the key and I think there's still concern there.
- [10:26]
F
I just want to pick up on something that Dan said. I think you were quoting from my earnings preview report.
- [10:31]
A
I always read.
- [10:32]
F
Well, of Course you do, but. Because everyone loves to read sells.
- [10:35]
D
But he didn't footnote you, which is all.
- [10:36]
F
No, no. But no, my point is, I think what you are saying here is something that I said generally coming into this reporting season that I think investors are ready for real numbers. Like they want to understand what the impacts are. And you know, I can't comment on this specific company but what I have read so far in this reporting season is I'm still getting the general like, oh, we're enhancing productivity, oh, we're adding to efficiencies, we're enhancing our employee experience, we're enhancing customer experience. That is simply not going to be enough. And I think that, you know, are we just still too early, too experimental that you know, is this just sort of a pipe dream for me that I'm going to get any of this color anytime soon? Maybe. But you know, I think you hit the nail on the head. I don't think it's an issue for one company or industry. This is the broader issue, which is.
- [11:19]
B
What I mean we saw that in matter and that's why matter spikes. So because you could point to different things, this is where the investment is yielding the most results.
- [11:26]
A
Yes. And those numbers were phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal. Interestingly, they pushed Mark Zuckerberg to give us some kind of roic. What, what are we looking at on this enormous spend? And it was a very squishy answer with no metrics, you know and I'm so I was actually a little bit pleasantly surprised that the street didn't penalize that at all for that. And with that very big capex and.
- [11:52]
D
Really quickly the message for, for the earnings season that you say started squishy on the consumer is really strong. I mean what we've heard from these companies, at least the real consumer companies which are Metta and Apple are the ones and the ones that are more enterprise focused are the ones that are struggling.
- [12:05]
B
Yep. We had another earnings alert here on SanDisk. Shares soaring after the company reported earnings, revenue and guidance that blew past Wall Street's estimates. The conference call kicked off in the last hour. Christina Parts and Nevilles is here on set with all the details. Christina, I'm just going to follow the flow because you were talking about numbers and they provided the numbers really I had to triple check to make sure that I wasn't making any mistakes. On the earnings call they really spoke about demand outpacing supply well beyond 2026. The other thing that I mentioned to you and they really got asked about multi year commitments this is something different for the memory world and storage world. Normally it's considered a cyclical environment and that's why you have traders go in and out. They are making the argument that because of the AI out in datacenter providers and hyperscalers, those customers are more willing to sign multi year agreements and that's helping them plan for the next few years. That's also helping them raise prices right now because of course supply is short. They also said that they're seeing their consumer business. Keep in mind that they do USBs as well and other little products. Their consumer business grew 50% year over year growth and that they've signed innovation deals like FIFA. They mentioned that's a pretty big deal on the call. And I think overall this is reflective of many companies. Just on Monday I was at Micron, I was speaking to them and they said the same thing, that many customers are signing these multi year agreements and that almost as an investor we shouldn't treat them as a commoditized product. Whether you believe that or not and that it's not a cyclical environment anymore and that because demand is outpacing supply for so long. And so it's an incredibly bullish call. Comments on this call thus far and that's why you're seeing shares continue to stay high double digits. All right, Dan, what do you make of of these moves? Because you know, you had some skepticism surrounding the sector but, but Sanders delivered and then some. I mean the guidance is twice what they delivered in EPS for the last quarter. The guidance for the current quarter, I mean it's just staggering.
- [13:54]
E
Yeah, so the stock's up 1100% since September 1st. So you could add all you wanted under $100 and here it is at $600. So if you tell me now that they're signing multi year deals, they're telling you that's not cyclical. Listen, this is clearly secular. Secular, okay. But the idea that none of these customers are double ordering, triple ordering. I mean, you know, when we talk about this again and again with this, you know, OpenAI throwing out a trillion and a half dollars of you know, compute, like build, you know what I mean? Like they're not going to feel it's not going to happen. Like it's not going to happen in a straight line either. So I mean, if you're buying this stock, I don't know, you're buying the stock here for. We all knew this was going to happen to the extent of it, fine. So good luck trying to get this upside. The Next quarter we already see that there's multi year quarter. So again I said this last quarter, you know, that sort of thing. But you buy into a bubble like this, it overshoots like this, it's going to go the other way too. And people forget, I mean, you know Palantir, which has been a darling, it's one of the very few software stocks that has actually benefited from this entire trade. It's down 25% right now from its recent highs in the fall or excuse me in the spring from the February highs into the April lows. It got cut in half. So the notion, and this is much. It's got hundreds of billions of dollars more in market cap. The notion that it couldn't happen from a much higher level when we know so much more about the fundamentals is ridiculous. So this stock will get cut in half at some point this year and if you buy it at any point here, you're going to lose money.
- [15:19]
D
Get cut in half at some point this year.
- [15:21]
E
100%.
- [15:22]
D
Okay.
- [15:23]
E
I'll bet my leg. Left pinky, the tip of my left.
- [15:25]
D
I mean chop that like that little.
- [15:27]
E
Bit like that little thing.
- [15:29]
D
No, I can appreciate the silver lining from Dan here. I mean I actually think that the, the nothing coming online till 27 while that's what we know in Nanlan is something that I guess I have to find skeptical. But when it does, you can't tell me that Samsung isn't going to the moon on production and isn't in an ability to do it. So there will be a supply response and this will become somewhat commoditized. I think in the short run we're at that Nvidia moment where these numbers are so extraordinary. The beat was even better than what people needed to see. It's not expensive here even relative to the pre 1100% move back to September. Based on the earnings profile of prices that have gone up eight times.
- [16:11]
B
What is the read through to the likes of Dow which I think is the D in your D bang or be Dang, dang dang. Yeah, I get those. It's still January.
- [16:21]
A
There's time for you to get to get the hang of it. It's mixed for Dell. I mean I think we're seeing PC demand, right? Well actually I have to look at Apple as well. Different PC but, but we have the same cost issue, right? If, if Apple's not going to be able to control with their suppliers Dell who is is a bigger, they sell more but they're going to have some difficulty I think absorbing all of it? I don't know. Are they? I don't know if they're the type who would sign multi year deals. I would think so.
- [16:51]
D
Is Christine still here?
- [16:53]
B
She's here, yeah.
- [16:55]
D
I mean this must be tough for you.
- [16:57]
B
We have any multi year deals? No, they just said hyperscalers. Hyper. Hyperscalers. Okay.
- [17:04]
A
I just think this is a little bit different from the Nvidia moment though in that there is some fungibility in these versus Nvidia chips. There was no alternative at any price anywhere to Nvidia chips and I think there could be here.
- [17:19]
D
But dang.
- [17:20]
B
That's a good but dang.
- [17:21]
A
Okay.
- [17:22]
B
Dang.
- [17:23]
E
There's split screens all over the place. So Celestica, which a contract manufacturer was down 16% today. They have large customer concentration. It's Google, it's Metta and It's Amazon. Okay. 50% of their customers. And they make the servers, they make the racks that go into the data centers that train the models and it just wasn't good enough. And their operating margins were flat and you know, their capex was higher than expected. So you're going to have this sort of activity. You're going to start putting together a lot of these pieces and you know that's when some of these. It's a bubble. That's a bubble. You know what I mean? Like those memory names are a bubble. And you're going to.
- [17:55]
D
She's not here anymore.
- [17:56]
E
I'm talking to you, dude. Yeah, I'm looking at you and I'm talking to you. Okay. So my point is I look at a SanDisk and the price action right here. I don't think it's bullish for the broader market. If you're involved in SanDisk, have a ball. I'm sure it's amazing.
- [18:10]
D
There it is.
- [18:11]
E
You know what I mean?
- [18:12]
B
Is it not in the. Is that why you're saying they go.
- [18:14]
E
Buy the last model S that they're going to sell? You know what I mean? Maybe buy an X2. Okay. But like my point is, is like this doesn't make me feel better about the S&P 500 at 7,000.
- [18:24]
B
We're going to move on. Christina, thank you. Thanks for letting me know if I couldn't. All right, let's get together. Big tech story of the day. Software stocks getting crushed. Investors increasingly concerned over the threat poses to the space servicenow. Microsoft both dropping 10% after earnings. Salesforce and adolescent Atlassian. Atlassian I should say. Deep in the red. For more on the sell off, let's bring In Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management. Gene, good to see you. Hello. It was indiscriminate. I mean they sold ServiceNow hard on good numbers. They also sold Microsoft hard on an okay quarter and maybe some warts that people didn't like. But what do you make of this sort of this pressure that still exists on software?
- [19:09]
G
So I first want to enumerate the ServiceNow numbers is that they grew at 21% in the September quarter, about 21%. This is their subscription business, about 21% in December, similar growth and they guided to 21% in March and the stock gets hit. And I think the reason you're seeing that Microsoft had some challenges but if you look at the sequential change like in deferred revenue for example it's similar to the typical seasonality. So what effectively is going on is this is probably one of the most powerful cases of a negative narrative. We talk about the positive narrative around some of the NAND stuff those companies are doing well. But the concern about this two edged sword around what happens with AI. On one side you can have lower seat growth because people lose their jobs that are using these tools on the other side is that could there be essentially just a reordering or re ranking of the software world with new AI first companies. This is xai's macro hard type of approach that Elon has been been a fan of. And so I think that that just kind of creates some uncertainty. So Melissa, the simple take is I wish I could come to a fundamental, you know this is the canary in the coal mine kind of piece but the numbers are largely pretty good and these stocks are getting crushed which just tells you investors just simply don't want to hold them. Feels like an overreaction at this point.
- [20:31]
B
The couple of things that that investors did not like about the Microsoft quarter was the RPO up 110% but 45% of that RPO was open air. And we saw that sort of open air ecosystem today also feel the pressure. Oracle, Core Weave and I'm just wondering, you know, is this, is this just concern here that open, open air is not going to be reliable in terms of ponying up for those bookings in the future? Is it that we're not sure what Microsoft is getting out of open? I mean why isn't it that, you know, look at the RPO's up 110. That's amazing. Thanks to OpenAI. Great that we have you on board.
- [21:10]
G
You know it's a slightly different part of the conversation on the software side but in general that's the issue is that this is a 45% of the business and I think that it speaks to the concern. And I would just, I mean this, this topic even spills over to what's going on with Apple right now, if I may, is that you look at the results, you look at what the stock is doing in the aftermarket. We're going to get the guidance. And my, my sense is the guidance will have an impact on how it trades tomorrow, but it's not going to change the narrative most likely around Apple. And I think that narrative will be changed when the new Siri comes out. But when it comes to Microsoft and kind of what's happened with the concerns about Azure growth, it's all about the sustainability when it comes to Apple and getting rewarded for whatever phenomenal results. I think yes, we're waiting for the guidance but I think more importantly they're waiting for the moment that Google had in the middle of the year where they stood up and said Gemini is great and we got Nano Banana and then we have Altman saying they're in code red. Like that validation. We haven't had that moment for Apple. That's the breakout I think needs to happen and that is the confidence that the software names need and they're just not getting it.
- [22:23]
A
Gene, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. Just going back to Microsoft for a minute on Azure. Do you buy the story of we can't supply as much as there is for demand so that it's demand delayed, not denied, it's part of it.
- [22:40]
G
But now that's like standard issue. You have to have that commentary that you can't keep up with demand in cloud. And so the little nuance that happened on the call last night that kind of spooked people as they talked about adding capacity. They need to keep up. But they also said that not all that capacity would go to Azure. They tried to change. This is kind of a story that I think is going to come out of this Microsoft call. They started to try to change the narrative, try to say don't look at Azure as much. We've got these other businesses that are doing well, we're going to fund those businesses and that's usually a sign that something probably is changing in terms of Azure growth when they want to communicate different Part of the story, we've of course seen that many times over years when companies try to change that. So Karen, I think that at the end of the day is that they've got pent up demand for it, the growth is going to be great. They'll grow at plus 30%. It won't be 40%. But I still believe in all of this and like this has been a rough two days for me. I think I've been very optimistic at how early we are in AI. These stocks are responding like I would hope. But I'm still in the camp that we're still early and you're going to have great growth from Azure and us and Google Cloud and Apple's going to get AI right.
- [23:48]
B
Chin up Gene. Earnings season. Jean's going to stick with us and we'll check back with him later on this hour. Is Microsoft here? Buying opportunity?
- [23:58]
D
I think it's interesting. Certainly we've, we've gone back to, and I referenced in some notes earlier, it's almost like this is Microsoft is, is back to a price before we even knew who Sam Altman was. And now Microsoft has underperformed the entire S and p by about 10% since July of 2020. Some charts today and so and again in the greatest run for tech and enterprise and cloud and software. And so I think the market, even though it's not a cheap stock, I think after today's move, I think this is a reassessment of really where they are. By the way. Yes, they have investments in things that are a lot more valuable than are probably priced into the stock.
- [24:37]
E
I also think it's interesting and when you think about it, forget the price action. I just look at this and last night we're sitting on the desk and we're saying oh they just were touting 15 million paid, you know, co pilot users and we were just doing some quick math and we're like that's five and a half billion dollars. But then if you think about it, they have 400 million.
- [24:55]
B
It seems like a small percentage right in terms of penetration painting.
- [24:59]
E
But I look at the other way, silver lining guy. I say to myself, 400 million global paid Office 365 users and then 15 goes to 50 and 50 goes to 100. And then all of a sudden you've got a massive business that's actually really high margin too. And this is a company that's seen their margins go down over the last three years or so. So to me I think there's more opportunity at 425 than there is risk here.
- [25:24]
B
All right, coming up we're keeping an eye on all tonight's after hours movers. We'll bring you the headlines from Apple's conference calls, the conference calls 24 minutes in right now. No guidance yet. Speaking of earnings, United Rentals getting slammed after its report last night. The numbers that investors selling out of the stock ahead do not go anywhere. Fast money's back in tune.
- [25:47]
H
We've been the trusted experts since 1960 because nobody knows tires better than we do. And with over 90 tire brands, we.
- [25:54]
E
Have an abundance of options in stock for your vehicle.
- [25:57]
H
Buy and drive today@discounttire.com let's get you taken care of.
- [26:02]
B
Looking for a Valentine's gift she'll truly love? 1-800-flowers.com knows what she wants. For 50 years, 1-800-flowers has helped guys like you get it right, delivering millions of fresh Valentine's roses nationwide. 1-800-Flowers offers premium fresh cut flowers backed by their seven day freshness guarantee plus same day delivery when you need them on time. Valentine's is coming up and bouquets are selling fast, so so don't wait on this order today at 1-800-FLowers.com sxm. That's 1-800-FLowers. Com sxm. Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing. You're managing all the things. So why waste time sending important documents the old fashioned way? Mail and ship when you want, how you want with stamps.com, print postage on demand 24, 7 and schedule pickups from your office or home. Save up to 90% with automated rate shopping. That's why over 1 million small businesses trust stamps.com go to stamps.com and use code podcast to try stamps.com risk free for 60 days. We've got a news alert on a potential deal for SpaceX. Pippa Stevens has more. Pippa. Hey, Melissa. Well, Elon Musk, SpaceX is reportedly considering a potential merger with Tesla. That's according to Bloomberg, or an alternative combination with xai, which Reuters reported earlier today. This of course, coming ahead of Space X's IPO, which is expected this year. Tesla shares up about 3.7% here in extended trading. Melissa. All right, Pippa, Thanks. Pippa Stevens put them all together. You're actually saying Tesla and X, I.
- [27:34]
E
Mean, for years, of course he's going to do this. I mean like, like think about it and like we talked about Solar City, what, 10 years ago, of course he was going to do this, you know, and so again, when you think about he's trying to get this thing out, this SpaceX, it's supposedly as hot as can be. But if you put XI with that, that's just another X factor that you can look at the, you know, the private markets and you see how a lot of Their competitors are being valued. And then the Tesla thing, I mean, he's going to do whatever the hell he wants with it. I mean like that's just always what he's.
- [28:01]
D
Why wouldn't he just sell them all, sell them separately. Why do you need to jam it into Tesla when in fact Tesla's already.
- [28:08]
E
This is the CEO of all three.
- [28:10]
D
But I think he benefited some of the parts. Again, we're talking about holding companies that don't trade in line with the, with the navigation. The nav trades at a discount to the assets. I think Xi in this environment should be doing its own raise. I think Space X we know is doing its own raise. It's going to be stratospheric and Tesla's still. We talk about almost every day getting priced in for things that are not part of their core business and not struggling on valuation. I don't know why they put them together.
- [28:36]
B
All right, earnings alert here on Visa. Shares lower despite beats on the top and the bottom lines. Revenues rising 15% with the company citing resilient consumer spending. Host of other consumer facing companies also also on the move today. MasterCard up 4% after topping estimates citing healthy consumer spending. Royal Caribbean soaring almost 19%. Guidance flowing right past expectations and policy group rising 3% even after the homebuilder reported disappointing earnings. Southwest Airlines which released results last night gaining nearly 19% on a strong 2026 forecast. Laurie Consumer all of all data points point to a strong one.
- [29:10]
F
So look, I think the narrative on consumers coming into the this reporting season was the capacity to spend is still there because people still have jobs. There was caution underneath the surface because of lousy consumer sentiment data and that sort of thing. But you know, the idea of prioritizing experiences, that caution really being more on the goods, no red flags from the financial companies, you know, that's kind of been the thesis. I'm not sure anything has really changed there at this point. But what I will tell you is worrying me just a little bit is that just about every single meeting I did in December and January, clients told me there are massive tax refunds coming. And so we're all bulled up on stimulus and consumers in particular. And there's also been, you know, a little bit of stabilization that you've seen on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, obviously not seen on the conference board data. But I do think that there has been a lot of optimism on the consumer that I have sensed in my client meetings from that tax refund issue. And that does make me a little nervous.
- [30:03]
B
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [30:05]
E
Next shares of United Rentals getting slammed. What had investors bailing out of the construction equipment leasing company and do our traders believe in a bounce back? Plus, Mideast tensions rattling the energy sector, crude oil prices surging to their highest levels since September, how the Trump administration will respond to the overseas unrest and what one oil expert sees in store for this space.
- [30:31]
D
You're watching Fast Money live from the.
- [30:33]
E
NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
- [30:35]
D
We're back right after this.
- [30:43]
A
Psoriatic arthritis Symptoms can be unpredictable I.
- [30:47]
B
Had joint pain and I couldn't move like I used to. I needed relief. I got Kosentyx. It helped me move better.
- [30:57]
G
Cosentyx Secukinumab is prescribed for people 2 years of age and older with active psoriatic arthritis. Don't use if you're allergic to Cosentyx. Before starting, get checked for tuberculosis. An increased risk of infections and lowered.
- [31:09]
B
Ability to fight them may occur like.
- [31:10]
G
Tuberculosis or other serious bacterial, fungal or viral infections. Some were fatal.
- [31:15]
B
Tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms like fevers, sweats, chills.
- [31:19]
G
Muscle aches or cough had a vaccine.
- [31:21]
B
Or plan to or if inflammatory bowel disease symptoms develop or worsen serious allergic.
- [31:25]
G
Reactions and severe eczema like skin reactions may occur.
- [31:28]
E
Learn more at 1-844-cosentyx or cosentyx.com.
- [31:38]
D
Ask your rheumatologist about Cosentyx.
- [31:44]
B
At Strayer University, we help students like you go from Is it possible? To Anything is possible by offering access to up to 10 no cost gen.
- [31:52]
A
Ed courses so you can reach your goals affordably and fast.
- [31:57]
B
Visit strayer.edu to learn more. No cost gen eds provided by strayer university affiliate sofia. Eligibility rules apply.
- [32:04]
F
Connect with us for details.
- [32:05]
B
Strayer University is certified to operate in.
- [32:07]
F
Virginia by Chef and has many campuses, including at 2121 15th Street north in Arlington, Virginia.
- [32:13]
B
Close your eyes. Focus. Listen to work getting done with Monday.com relax as AI does the manual work while your teams are aligned on a single source of truth. Feel the sensation of an AI work platform so flexible and intuitive it feels like it was built just for you.
- [32:34]
G
Notice you're limitless. Limitless.
- [32:37]
D
Now open your eyes.
- [32:38]
B
Go to Monday.com, start for free and finally, breathe. We're getting some updates out of Apple's conference call. Shares are higher by under a percent. Now let's get back to Steve Kovac.
- [32:49]
C
Steve yeah Melissa. We got some guidance and those memory price concerns addressed here on the call. First let me go over guidance. CFO Kevin park says to expect revenue top line growth to be between 13 and 16% year over year. So another quarter in a row of double digit percentage growth expected. Services as has been the story for a couple of years now, also expected to grow by double digit percentage points and margins expected to be between 48 and 49%. Now that also plays into the memory conversation we've heard about memory prices increasing. Tim Cook did address this on the call. Two ways to look at this here that he talked about. First of all, the memory price are expected not to impact as much in the second quarter that we're in right now. But he did say moving throughout the year they do expect those prices to continue to increase on the supply side. Now just on the iPhone side he also made a point about being supply constrained on the iPhone. That's because sales were basically better than they thought in the December quarter and Cook called the inventory remaining quite lean. So they're still playing a little bit of catch up on the iPhone side trying to meet the demand after this hot seller of the iPhone 17. So the big takeaway here though guys is those memory prices are going to be concerned maybe not so much in the current quarter but moving forward throughout the year. Tim Cook saying he expects those prices to continue to go up now.
- [34:18]
B
So I guess we are to assume that there is no contract locking in price even though, I mean we're hearing more about multi year contracts from customers. We don't even have multi month contracts from Apple.
- [34:29]
C
Right? Yeah, I'm not sure they did not address the contract thing and what they've already pre negotiated. All he did say was they expect those memory prices to increase and the.
- [34:40]
B
Margin guidance of 48 to 49% compares to what Steve?
- [34:45]
C
I do not recall what it was in the year ago quarter but that is in line with what they just reported for the December quarter for sure. And part of that and that's that's despite increased R and D spending and so much more.
- [34:57]
B
All right Steve, thanks. Steve Kovac with all the latest guidance numbers. Well what do you think so far on memory?
- [35:04]
D
None of this should be a surprise. I think the street knows that they had these LTA's, these long term agreements. I don't know how many months they are but they're certainly out through mid of the year. I think everything is fine. The March quarter is fine. It's the second half of the year and that's still hanging over them. And If Tim Cook is bringing up that uncertainty, I think the analyst community is going to be zeroing in on it's 10 to 20% of the cost of building an iPhone right there.
- [35:27]
A
Wow.
- [35:28]
E
And on the margin front, so year over year it was up 3% and sequentially for the current quarter they just guided. It was down 1%. I mean again, it's not a big deal. I'm surprised. On the revenue guide, I think expectations were for 10% growth year over year in Q2 and they just guided a 13 to 16%. You'd think that's pretty healthy especially given what they're talking about. They didn't, I don't know, do they report eps? Like do they guide EPS anymore? Because I don't see it down here. But that's good revenue growth.
- [35:53]
B
Let's get to Gene Munster for more reaction here. Jean, what's your take?
- [35:58]
G
Take Dan's line. They at 10% for the guidance was the expectation, I guess for March and 13 to 16, the margins typically they do see some improvement from December to March and they're guiding to that. And I understand that they have some commentary about the back half year in margins but in total there's just something else going on. Like this is I think give me a blank sheet of paper. I'd probably say this stock should be up something like 5 to 7% based on results and what they're seeing about kind of customer buy in and so what's the piece that's not lined up? I think it goes beyond just kind of the nuances about the back half of the year and guidance. I still think it comes down to the sustainability. Our investors comfortable that this party can continue. And that's been a story, a long time story about Apple. But these results, the guidance, it's just really impressive. Stock's not showing it. I would add one other piece is the second or third question on the call was related to kind of what you're doing with Google and tell us kind of a little bit more. And really Cook didn't say anything. And so at some level I think investors just want to know that they got those AI chops. They're going to show it, but we're going to have to wait around to see that.
- [37:10]
B
All right, Gene, thank you. We'll check in with you again. Gene Munster, the stock is ticking a little bit higher up almost a percent at this point. Karen, what do you make of all this?
- [37:18]
A
Well, I'm sort of wondering when they do have those price increases, who pays them? How did they apportion them between what the customer pays and what they. And what they pay.
- [37:26]
B
Yeah. Coming up of a fueled AI a fuel trade. Fueled up trade, I should say. Crude prices surging as tensions rise in the Middle East. The latest out of Iran and the impact on the energy sector and the stocks. That's when he's back into. Welcome back to fast money. Stocks closing well off their lows as Investors digested the first of MAG7 earnings. Dow adding nearly 56 points. The S and P with a small loss and the Nasdaq falling about 3/4 of a percent, snapping a six day winning streak. It had been down more than 2 1/2% at the lows. Gold, silver and copper all hitting fresh records in a volatile day for metals. Gold already up 24% so far this year. Silver surging more than 64%. And some more after hours action in shares of Deckers Outdoors. That stock jumping after beating expectations on the top of the bottom lines of the revenue for the HOKA and UGG brands topping estimates. So we have that stock up by about 12%. We do want to get to shares of URI which really tanked today. I mean, yes, awful day, Karen, what happened here?
- [38:30]
A
Awful day. Worst day in a long, long time. They missed on revenue, they missed on earnings, they missed on margins, they missed. I mean, and that's unlike uri, right? You're normally an under promise over deliver. So part of the things that were a little problematic last year that they worked through like this idea of having these big projects where they have to move equipment across the country or further than they normally do. One of their strengths is that they're everywhere but that required them to move a lot of equipment that's expensive that has persisted. They did have one very large project that was delayed which I don't know exactly when that will start so but, but I think the response was overdone at its lowest. The stock was down, I don't know, a couple, two or three more percent than this. And I think the balance sheets in great shape. I don't think the story has fundamentally changed so much. A little bit on the margins being bigger revenue, less margin.
- [39:25]
B
Right.
- [39:25]
A
But still having good earnings power, good free cash flow. So I liked it. I actually bought a little today which I normally don't do on a first day when something's down a lot. I did buy a little bit. I think this is overdone.
- [39:38]
B
Despite this move lower in URI industrials overall for today. A good sector, Laurie. And you know, we saw soft, we saw isolated areas of the market being sold off. But then we did see that sort of broadening trade continue.
- [39:52]
F
Industrials is a funny one. We're neutral on the sector and, you know, we've generally liked the fundamentals. I will say that most clients that I talk to seem to be in the space pretty heavily. And it actually ranks as one of the most expensive sectors in the S&P 500 by a mile. That's looking at median PE. So it doesn't speak to every individual stock. But it has seemed like an area that in theory should benefit from the rotation, except for the fact that everybody's already there.
- [40:16]
B
Coming up, the crude climb. You'll talk to a top oil analyst about the hot commodity and where the energy trade goes from here. More fast money right after this. Welcome back to FAST money. Crude oil jumping on growing concerns. President Trump will strike, will strike. Iran WTI settling almost 4% higher while Brent rose more than 3%. It's now over 70 bucks a barrel, seeing its highest close since July. Let's bring in energy analyst Paul Sankey of Sankey Research. Paul, great to have you with us. How much of an Iran premium is in Brent right now?
- [40:51]
H
It seems like a lot. I mean, we've broken through the 200 day moving average to the upside and the last time that happened was the previous Iran bombing that was back in June of last year. So it seems like a big part of this move is related to that. Although I'm a bit perplexed by the size of the move, I have to say. Who knows? I mean, maybe there is something big about to happen that will be very interruptive to oil supply. But it's been a surprise move here for sure, even with the threats to to Iran.
- [41:18]
D
Paul, it's Tim, great to have you on what's fascinating time and help us zero back in on really what is the driver ultimately for the oil price because we do have a better demand backdrop. We do have dynamics that at least say global growth and demand continues to pick up. Historically, this has been a big part of the story and supply is always kind of ebbed and flowed. I'm just curious where you're putting, you know, the emphasis here.
- [41:43]
H
Well, you know, we look back and over two years ago, we thought that the low in oil would be around February of 2026 and we were saying the oil would be in the 40s by now. So for us to be above 70 is, you know, obviously a disaster in terms of the oil price forecast when you look at the moving parts, absolutely. Demand has been somewhat better than expected. And we're now thinking that we may be missing barrels on the demand side because the extent to which oil has held up would imply that there's more demand out there than appear in the balances. And then there's just been a lot of disruption, Tim, as you know, particularly around sanctioning of tankers and additionally China building inventory. As much as a million barrels a day that have all added up to what seems like a tight market. But when you look at the major forecasting agencies and do your own numbers, we still seem to be 1 to 2 to 3 million barrels a day of oil oversupplied, which is what makes this move so surprising. And then of course the kicker has been this winter that we've seen both in Europe and in the US which is causing a lot of incremental demand. I'm sure you've seen stories about Massachusetts and PJM, the electricity market, burning upwards of 300,000 barrels a day each of oil to generate power in what is a real tight energy market right here in the US with this weather, you.
- [43:01]
B
Know, with the scorching rally we've seen year to date in both Brent as well as wti. Paul, a lot of the stocks are at multi year all time highs. Which ones do you still see value in?
- [43:10]
H
Well, we've been loving Schlumberger for the first time in many, many years actually this year. So we've been the right side of that one. And we thought that oil would go down and the oil stocks would go up, which is always kind of a hero call. But you know, the oils had got so beaten down that we were almost in the mood to buy any of them on the basis that the market would couldn't sell anymore. When you think about the S And P at 30 times earnings, these oil stocks were down well below 10 times earnings. And the other thing here of course is terminal value has gone up. So there's a wide acceptance now that the oil age is not ending in the way that people thought it would five years ago. There's been capitulation by all those who claimed that the oil age was over, such as the iea, such as bp. And the more responsible forecasters like Exxon have said we think oil demand will stay flat through 2050. So we were going to put that terminal value back into the oils, haven't taken it out. So things are acting very well. And as I say for us, the stock has been slumberjay. I think Exxon will have great results. We had an amazing beat from one of Our favorites, Valero today. They continue to deliver brilliant results.
- [44:14]
B
Yep, all time highs on vlo. Paul, great to see you. Thank you Paul. Thank you. Coming up, Staples off to a good start this year and the Chartmaster sipping on one name in particular. The name he thinks is ready to bubble up to record high. Next, more fast, fast money in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. The Chartmaster couldn't be here today but he did send us a postcard. Carter worth of worth charting saying it is time to buy Coca Cola for a shot at a breakout to all time highs. By his work, the longtime range bound name is ready to end its 18 month spot log and could make a move above 80 bucks a share. Meantime, the broader consumer staples sector has outperformed the market so far this year. It hit an all time high on Tuesday. It is up more than 6% versus just under 2% for the S&P 500. This is a group that you like?
- [45:09]
F
Well, we're neutral this sector but we did upgrade it last summer and we have six neutrals and we've put it in the top tier of them and we the best neutral out of this, we've divided up the six and to the top three and the bottom three. And what the top three have in common there, REITs, energy and staples because they all have attractive valuations. And what I thought was really interesting about the three of these coming into the year, December, January, everyone's like Laurie, what's cheap? What's cheap? We want to look at cheap sectors. They want to talk about health care, financials which look good, you know, look reasonable but these are even cheaper. And the beverages in particular on our industry work are also looking pretty undervalued.
- [45:43]
D
Coca Cola, I like it, I'm long it. I just think they continue to deliver solid performance. They've evolved the business. The margin profile is better. They are a great beneficiary of technology and they are great beneficiary. I just think of, of global efficiency and they've, they've, they've restructured their business over the last 10 years and I think the company's never been more profitable even though no one drinks Coke anymore.
- [46:04]
A
Well so Carter if he were here would probably say and resistance becomes support.
- [46:09]
B
Or it's been fallow for so long.
- [46:12]
A
Yeah, pair of twos and yeah, the Coke.
- [46:15]
E
Yeah, he's saying buy it, it's going to break out.
- [46:17]
B
What are we doing right now after.
- [46:18]
A
A long resistance has become support.
- [46:22]
E
Right. Well if it breaks out and holds it.
- [46:24]
A
What, what if it will? If it breaks out.
- [46:26]
H
Hold it.
- [46:26]
A
Okay.
- [46:27]
B
Anyway, Carter says bye. Up next, final trades, Final trade time. Lori Calvacena we like materials.
- [46:40]
F
Metal and mining are not that expensive. The chemicals are cheap.
- [46:44]
B
Great to have you here.
- [46:44]
D
Laurie thank you Tim so be one of the best performing stocks of the year. Had numbers affirmed their international growth is there. I really like SOB and think it's going high.
- [46:54]
A
Karen yes so United Rentals despite the not so fun day. If I own none I would look at it here and say yeah, I like it but wait one more day. Give it another sell off by Unite.
- [47:05]
E
Dan yeah, Microsoft to the downside. I was surprised it was down so much and then Apple. I'm surprised.
- [47:12]
B
Thank you for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5 for more fast. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer@ Strayer University, we help students like you go from Is it possible? To anything is possible by offering access to up to 10 no cost gen.
- [48:03]
A
Ed courses so you can reach your goals affordably and fast.
- [48:07]
B
Visit strayer.edu to learn more. No cost genites provided by Strayer University Affiliate Sophia. Eligibility rules apply.
- [48:14]
F
Connect with us for details.
- [48:15]
B
Strayer University is certified to operate in.
- [48:17]
F
Virginia by Chef and has many campuses including at 2121 15th Street north in Arlington, Virginia.