CNBC "Fast Money" Podcast Summary

Episode: Apple Reports Results… And Crude Climbs Amid Middle East Tensions
Date: January 29, 2026
Host: Melissa Lee
Panelists: Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Lori Calvasina (RBC), Guest: Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management); Steve Kovach (CNBC), Christina Partsinevelos (CNBC), Paul Sankey (Sankey Research)

Main Theme

This episode zeroes in on Apple’s blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings and the shifting landscape for tech and energy investors. The panel breaks down Apple’s outperformance, particularly its China sales renaissance and AI momentum, reflects on sharp moves across the software and memory chip sectors, and analyzes the surge in crude oil amid growing Middle East tensions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Apple’s Q1 2026 Earnings: Blockbuster—but is it Priced In?

• Headline Results: Apple handily beat both revenue and EPS estimates. EPS: $2.84 vs. expectations; Revenue: $143.76B, up 16% y/y.
• iPhone Sales: Double-digit growth, reversing year-ago sluggishness.
• China: Revenue soared 38% in Greater China, a sharp rebound after past quarters’ declines.
  • Steve Kovach [02:55]: “China is up a whopping 38%. I have not been able to say that on an Apple earnings call for quite some time.”
  • Tim Cook (to Kovach, quoted): “It’s a result of the product resonating with the Chinese in a huge way … it was much greater than we thought ... they love the iPhone.” [03:30]
• AI and Google Gemini Partnership: Discussion around new AI integrations, with Cook reaffirming Apple’s commitment to privacy despite Google-backed Gemini features.
  • Cook (to Kovach): “We’re not changing our privacy values … still the same architecture … on-device plus the private cloud.” [03:57]
• Muted Stock Reaction: Despite big numbers, shares only up ~1% after hours.
  • Tim Seymour [04:40]: “The two parts that made this a great number ... we know memory is fine, we know services are fine … I think it’s services and memory holding the stock back.”
• Panel’s Take:
  • Skepticism about how much of the growth is sustainable, especially China’s resurgence after weak comps last year.
  • Focus shifting to Apple’s AI roadmap, particularly the upcoming “Apple Intelligence” releases and revamped Siri in the June quarter.
    • Dan Nathan [05:44]: “It comes down to … the release of Apple Intelligence and the upgraded Siri … for the last two years the excitement has been an upgrade cycle with Apple Intelligence.”
  • Ongoing memory price risks and service margin concerns for the remainder of 2026.

2. Conference Call Updates: Guidance and Memory Cost Risks

(Timestamps: 32:48, 34:18)

• Q2 Guidance: Revenue seen up 13-16% y/y, another double-digit increase.
• Margins: Expected between 48-49%, in line with previous quarter.
• Memory Prices: Tim Cook acknowledged rising memory costs, likely to impact later quarters this year, not immediately; Apple remains supply-constrained on iPhone.
  • Kovach [34:18]: “Memory prices expected not to impact as much in the second quarter … but moving throughout the year do expect those prices to continue to increase … they’re still playing catch up on iPhone supply.”

3. Software Sector Slammed: Microsoft & Peers Under Pressure

(Timestamps: 07:52, 18:24–22:23)

• Big Swings: Microsoft’s market cap dropped $360B; Oracle at 8-month lows; IGV Software ETF in bear market.
• Gene Munster’s Perspective: Despite decent numbers, software stocks are getting crushed, likely due to negative AI disruption narrative—not fundamentals.
  • Gene Munster [19:09]: “Numbers are largely pretty good and these stocks are getting crushed, which just tells you investors simply don’t want to hold them. Feels like an overreaction.”
• Microsoft/Azure/AI Uncertainty: Investors are concerned whether explosive AI demand can be fulfilled or reliably monetized.
  • Munster [20:31]: “45% of the [RPO] business … speaks to the concern … sustainability … the guidance will have impact but not change the narrative … waiting for Apple’s AI breakout moment.”
• Panel’s View: Market reassessing Microsoft’s AI and enterprise dominance; co-pilot adoption seen as underpenetrated opportunity but margin concerns linger.
  • Nathan [24:58]: “To me, I think there’s more opportunity at 425 than risk here.”

4. Memory and Hardware: SanDisk Earnings Send Signal

• SanDisk Blows Out: Revenue, earnings, and guidance all smash expectations; company claims demand will outpace supply “well beyond 2026.”
  • Christina Partsinevelos [12:05]: “They’re making the argument … that because of the AI datacenter providers, … customers are willing to sign multi-year agreements … not a cyclical environment anymore.”
• Skepticism on Sustainability:
  • Dan Nathan [13:54]: “If you buy into a bubble like this ... it overshoots, it’s going to go the other way too. … This stock will get cut in half at some point this year.”
  • Tim Seymour [15:27]: “In the short run we're at that Nvidia moment … the beat was even better than people needed.”
• Dell & PC Read-Through: If memory prices are rising for Apple, Dell and other large PC vendors could be facing margin pressure.

5. Energy Market Surge: Crude Oil Spikes as Tensions Rise

• Middle East Geopolitics: Crude hit $70+ for the first time since July, with the threat of US action against Iran.
  • Paul Sankey (Sankey Research) [40:51]: “A big part of this move is related to that [geopolitical premium] … but it’s been a surprise move here for sure, even with the threats to Iran.”
• Demand vs. Supply: Despite forecasts of oversupply, disruptions (sanctioned tankers, China stockpiling, winter demand) are tightening the market more than expected.
  • Sankey [41:43]: “We may be missing barrels on the demand side … the extent to which oil has held up would imply there’s more demand out there than appear in the balances.”
• Winners: Schlumberger and oil majors (Exxon, Valero) highlighted for value and profitability.

6. Consumer Sector & Sentiment

• Visa & Royal Caribbean Results: Strong consumer spending persists; guidance remains robust across travel and financials.
  • Lori Calvasina [29:10]: “The narrative on consumers ... is the capacity to spend is there because people still have jobs … the idea of prioritizing experiences … no red flags from the financial companies.”
• Tax Refunds and Sentiment: Some worries among institutional clients that consumer optimism may fade after anticipated tax refunds.

7. Other Notable Moves & Commentary

• Tesla/SpaceX/xAI Rumors: Reports suggest Elon Musk may merge SpaceX with Tesla or xAI before SpaceX IPO.
  • Nathan [28:09]: “He’s going to do whatever the hell he wants with it. … Tesla gets priced for things not part of their core business.”
• Final Stock Calls:
  • Lori Calvasina: “We like materials … metals and mining are not that expensive, chemicals are cheap.” [46:40]
  • Tim Seymour: “SOBE, one of the best stocks of the year; international growth is there.” [46:44]
  • Karen Feinerman: “United Rentals, despite the not so fun day, I’d look at it here and say, I like it … give it another selloff and buy.” [46:54]
  • Dan Nathan: “Microsoft to the downside surprised me, Apple surprised me as well.” [47:05]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Apple’s China Comeback:
  Steve Kovach [03:30]: “China is up a whopping 38%. … It’s a result of the product resonating with the Chinese in a huge way.”
• On Apple's AI Approach:
  Dan Nathan [09:32]: “The agentic layer of AI … will be on this device and they're going to be the first ones to capture it from a consumer.”
• Software Sector Rout:
  Melissa Lee [18:24]: “Software stocks getting crushed. Investors increasingly concerned over the threat AI poses to the space … It was indiscriminate.” Gene Munster [19:09]: “Numbers are … good and these stocks are getting crushed, which just tells you investors simply don’t want to hold them. Feels like an overreaction.”
• On Memory ‘Bubble’: Dan Nathan [13:54]: “If you buy into a bubble like this, it overshoots … this stock will get cut in half at some point this year.”
• Crude Oil Dynamics:
  Paul Sankey [41:43]: “We may be missing barrels on the demand side … [oil is] just surprisingly persistent given the forecasted oversupply.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------------|------------------| | Apple Earnings Breakdown (w/ Steve Kovach) | 02:16–04:26 | | Panel Reaction: Apple Results & Guidance | 04:26–11:10 | | Conference Call Updates & Memory Issues | 32:48–35:52 | | Software Sector Selloff: Microsoft, ServiceNow | 18:24–24:58 | | SanDisk Earnings & Memory Stock Analysis | 12:05–17:04 | | Energy: Crude Oil Spike, Market Impact | 40:51–44:14 | | Consumer Sector Snapshot: Visa, Royal Caribbean | 28:35–30:02 | | Tesla/SpaceX/xAI Merger Rumors | 27:34–28:35 | | Final Trades: Stock Picks | 46:40–47:12 |

Conclusion

This episode delivered a dense look at the cross-currents animating markets at the end of January 2026: Apple’s impressive quarter and the market’s skeptical reaction; AI’s double-edged sword for both hardware and software stocks; a speculative surge in energy as geopolitical risks flare; and persistent strength across some key consumer segments. The panel’s tone was candid, back-and-forth, and rich with both caution and longer-term optimism—underscoring the complexity of navigating today’s headline-driven, tech-infused market.