← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Apple Ripe For A Rebound… And An Economic Outlook Ahead of CPI Data 8/8/25
00:43:34
Apple’s up on its Trump-Cook collab, but can the rally survive the tech giant’s lackluster AI outlook? Wedbush’s Dan Ives lays out what Apple can do to avoid a “Blackberry moment.” Plus Charting Gold’s record rally, checking the pulse of a weakening labor market, and looking ahead to next week’s CPI report. Fast Money Disclaimer
Loading summary
Transcript115 lines
- [00:00]
Edward Jones
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC.
- [00:34]
Patient Advocate
Dealing with Hidradenitis Suppurativa HS is tough, but you're not alone. Before I started Cosentyx, I looked at the website and saw it had many years of clinical research that made me feel confident.
- [00:48]
Cosentyx Representative
Cosentyq Secukinumab is prescribed for adults with moderate to severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa hs. Don't use if allergic to Cosentyx. Get checked for TB before starting. Increased risk of infections and lowered ability to fight them may occur like TB or other serious bacterial, fungal or viral infections. Some were fatal. Tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms like fevers, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough, had a vaccine or plan to, or if IBD symptoms develop or worsen, serious allergic reactions and severe eczema like skin reactions may occur. Learn more at 1-844-cosentyx or cosentyx.com don't wait.
- [01:27]
Patient Advocate
Ask your dermatologist about Cosentyx.
- [01:34]
Melissa Lee
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Apple's big week. The iPhone maker continuing its run with another 4% gain today and powering the NASDAQ to a new record. Is Apple heading to all time highs itself and will it bring the rest of big tech with it? And magical Madrigal, the company pharma company surging 14% this week on the back of earnings and strong demand for its first commercial product. We'll talk to the CEO about the outlook and what's next for this biotech plus gold shines hitting an all time high. The trade desk second 30 plus percent drop in just this year. And out of the ether, the second biggest crypto climbing back above the 4,000 mark. We dive into the mood and the other names riding the coattails. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Vono and Ice and Carter Worth, Tim Seymour and Mike Koh. And we start off with a seemingly unstoppable Apple. The iPhone maker has now gained a 13% in the last three days and just put together its best week since July of 2020. Since news Wednesday it was investing more in the U.S. and avoiding tariffs on its India manufactured products. It has gained $410 billion in market cap. Today's move finally gets it back above its liberation day close. Now trading nearly five month highs. The move in Apple helping power the NASDAQ to a record close. The S and P and Dow also both sharply higher today. But even with recent gains, Apple is still down more than 8% this year behind only Tesla as the worst performing MAG7 stock this year and it remains nearly 12% below its all time high hit just after Christmas. So is Apple really gotten its mojo back? Von and what do you say?
- [03:11]
Patient Advocate
Part of it, part of it. I mean we've, it's like what is that movie Gold Member where the guy lost his mojo. So I think they do in terms of them actually kind of meeting and exceeding expectations in terms of service revenue in terms of like iPhone in China, I think there were some positives there. I do think the overhang here is what is their strategy? And until we have a question, until we have that question answered, I think it's tough to really say that they truly do have their mojo back and certainly in terms of them being a tech leadership and taking us to, to new all time high. So I think there's still a bit of a challenge there. I do think a lot of the overhang though, whether it's China iPhone sells, whether it's the tariff related things, I do think, I mean $100 billion is a lot to ingratiate yourself, ingratiate yourself to this administration. So I do think it's a step in the right direction. But I think it's a bit early to say that they're fully out of the woods yet and definitely a reach to say that they've now reestablished themselves amongst the leaders in the Max seven.
- [04:09]
Melissa Lee
It's not nothing to say that the tariff overhang and the China overhang though are at least temporarily put to the side, Mike. I mean those were two huge facets of the bear case for Apple in addition to AI, which of course is the one outstanding issue here.
- [04:24]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think it's one of the outstanding issues. I think valuation could arguably be another part of the issue. I mean look we're looking at a company that's trading around 31 times, so it's a couple of turns richer than the S&P.9% or so adjusted EPS growth year on year. That's pretty solid. Better than 3% free cash flow yield and growing. That's also pretty solid. But then take a look at it relative to the S and P overall and you're looking at numbers that are probably 12% is at least what it looks like year on year. So on a relative basis it's hard for me to get super excited about it. I will say one quick thing about it though and that is that you know, Apple has a very sticky business. It's hard to get people who are basically in the Apple ecosystem to migrate away from it. And I think that that moat does deserve a little bit of a premium.
- [05:14]
Carter Worth
I mean I think you highlighted Melissa by pointing out that yes, it's a big week, but of course the stock is still one of the worst performers among its key supercap brethren. And, and so it's both the good news and the bad news to be up 13, 14% in the week. It's been very much a catch up trade. But we know also that Apple's relative performance to the S&P 500 tech sector, we're coming up on the three year anniversary of a peak that was September of 2022. And the question is, can Apple ever make a new relative high when you have things like in video and Palantir and other very prominent names that are driving the performance of that sector. Apple is a lower beta stock. It's a more defensive stock and it is for of late a non participating stock. So my hunch is to fade this move. It's a big move and it doesn't change the facts.
- [06:06]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. Tim, how do you feel about Apple today versus three days ago?
- [06:13]
Mike Koh
Well, you know, we had a spirited debate last night and my argument was there's no AI priced into Apple and I still feel that. And I think if you think about Apple relative to itself, Apple traded at 34 times before there really was AI mania in markets. If you look at the rest of the tech sector, albeit some that have exposure to AI for sure, but, but you know, whether you're talking about Google or Metta or Amazon or other members of the Max seven, the fact of the matter is that Apple, as Carter said it underperformed even those stocks. I think in a world where even you're moving sideways and you can make an argument that Apple, either way, if the market is rallying, Apple needs to go there. The irony is that of course Apple this week is the reason why the NASDAQ made a new relative high on its own to the S and P. So he's right. Apple's done nothing. It may not ever make another relative high, but. But I like it more than I like it. Three days ago, Tim Cook gave a masterclass on how to handle geopolitics. This is a stock that last. This was a fantastic quarter. Okay, pull forward. A lot of people had pull forwards. But the reality is that iPhone and a refresh cycle is something that at least is continuing onward. And it's not necessarily because of I, I like Apple. I like it because it has underperformed. It's a stock that's been dead money for three years and I do sleep well with the stock. So I think there's, there's a lot of reasons to feel good about the momentum that that's now in this stock and the fact that as you said, some of the uncertainty China is the reason why Apple has lagged for the last six months. To me, it's not lack of AI, it's China. And I think this is very good news.
- [07:45]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean the point is interesting because you could either be glass half full or glass half empty. When Tim is glass half full on it, obviously there's no AI price in the stock or you can think Apple is so behind in AI that it's going to be very difficult for it to catch up. Monowin here and it's ceding some share to others.
- [08:02]
Patient Advocate
You know, I don't want to look at this just through this very narrow lens. I think you need to hearken back to, let's think about like met its performance. What is it three years ago where they were absolutely slammed for their capex spend and it wasn't justified. And so I do want to give Apple some credit because they've kind of held true and waited until this was like a proven technology that supports the investment dollars. And so if you aggregate all of the CapEx spend that's been tailored towards AI from the hyperscalers from 2022 to current, I can make the argument that Apple could spend that same amount of money and essentially break even and have lesser downside risk because it's much more of a proven technology. So I'm not willing to throw in the towel here because I do think they've essentially backed themselves into a corner where they have to make some type of acquisition and aren't going to be able to rely on our organic growth. If they are reluctant to make that move, well then clearly I will have to reevaluate my position.
- [09:00]
Melissa Lee
All right. One of Street's both bullish Apple analysts out with a new note today suggesting it's a make or break moment for the stock. And it all comes down to AI. Let's bring in Dan Ives, Wedbush's global head of technology research. Dan, great to see you. Great to see your outfit too. It's always fun to see what you're wearing.
- [09:16]
Dan Ives
Thank you.
- [09:18]
Melissa Lee
It's interesting that you come out with this note and you say, is this going to be. Is there a BlackBerry moment waiting for Apple? Which really implies the worst situation for a tech stock after a massive rally here. This doesn't alleviate any of those concerns.
- [09:32]
Dan Ives
Look, I think the biggest look there was a huge concern on tariff playing nice in the sandbox with Trump. That clearly has alleviated that in terms of the India, the China tariffs. And you've seen the stock lift from it and it was way oversold. But the elephant in the room, it's this revolution, this strategy. Right now it's essentially invisible for Apple. And you think about everything that we see in big tech across the board. It's an F1 race passing them by. And Apple's essentially in Cook on a park bench drinking lemonade. So our view is whether it's perplexity doubling down on Google despite DOJ and other antitrust issues, bringing new management in under Cook. They got to do something because time ultimately we're talking about three to six months that they have to make a big move if they stay on the treadmill. And I think that it does cap some of the upside.
- [10:24]
Melissa Lee
One of the things is you say do the Perplexity acquisition. Can they get there effectively having some sort of AI search available on its iPhones on its devices without making acquisition?
- [10:37]
Dan Ives
No. I mean, I just continued there's a better chance of me playing in Ryder cup in September than Apple innovating internally. I think that's. There's 100% chance that that is not happening internally. So then it comes down to for a company that has never acquired beats 3 billion biggest acquisition you got ripped the bandit off. In other words, now is the change. Because I could tell from time to developers everything we see in the ecosystem, it has to be acquisitions and it can't be small deals undisclosed two years from now. We're still waiting for this. You have the biggest install base in the world. You have 1.5 billion iPhones. This is the time. And look and I continue to think, I think Cook should be CEO. We believe he's been a hall of fame CEO and should continue to be. But it will tarnish his legacy and the Apple future if they miss out on the fourth industrial Revolution that's right in front of us.
- [11:30]
Melissa Lee
Tim has a question.
- [11:32]
Mike Koh
Dan, looking sharp as usual. Question for you is should we, are we too focused at the multiple here? Have investors been too focused for the last six to nine months? As you said, there's, there should be urgency to where they sit. But the rest of the sector multiples don't really seem to matter. Is this a problem?
- [11:51]
Dan Ives
Well, Tim, to me it's really about. They're missing AI. So when it comes to Palantir and Microsoft, Godfather Agents and Nvidia, you could continue look at the growth next to three years because we're talking about trillions that's going to be spent in next three years. Apple is nowhere when it comes to AI. That's why the multiple is going to continue to be under focus because you don't have that. That's now playing out. And I think when we were WWDC and Cupertino, you left there thinking like, okay, was I just in back to the future? Because that fundamentally is the problem right now for Apple.
- [12:25]
Carter Worth
I mean, money flow is everything, right. And so all the negatives that you highlight, institutions are well aware of. It's why it's not as widely held a stock anymore, whereas it's still the most widely held stock in the retail complex. What do you think will make the retail constituent ultimately abandon it when most of them have it for three or four years, the cost base is so low they don't want to take the tax. But what would get the retail, the individual to back away from their beloved Apple?
- [12:50]
Dan Ives
If we go through, like I said, next six months, nine months, if we're sitting here at the end of the year and they haven't done acquisition and a ISE nowhere and we're to my iPhone 17, okay, we had a color that's orange instead of red. It's not moving the needle. That's where you start to get nervous because it's my view tech stocks are going to be up another 20, 25%. You don't want to miss that. But it's a driven the AI party. You do not want to look at that from the outside through the windows.
- [13:20]
Patient Advocate
Dan, looking sharp. So you mentioned three strategies, either somewhat of an internal cultural shift where they make higher exogenous hires in and innovate that way. Doubling down on Gemini or the perplexity. Perplex, perplexity or another acquisition. Can you kind of rank those in terms of what's most likely to move the needle and what's going to have the greatest impact?
- [13:42]
Dan Ives
Perplexity is number one, I think by mile. Because that's when look, Even if it's 1819 billion in terms of last valuation, they spend 35 billion, they'll be a drop in the bucket relative. So perplexity continues to be one where right away you'd go from if you think 0 to 60, you now would be in the race relative to that technology. We integrate into the ecosystem. Google, clearly, even though I think they should double down that by antitrust, that will obviously take longer in terms of the partnership and ultimately how that's going to play out. And then in terms of the internal management, look, you got to bring in new blood. I mean, it's clear this is not a management team that's innovating and they're losing talent. And I think that's why as someone's been so bullish on name for a decade and still very positive on the name, now is the time clock struck midnight. Ripped a band aid off. Do something.
- [14:33]
Melissa Lee
I will. At what point do you reevaluate your valuation or your rating on the stock if it turns out that there isn't a clear AI strategy in three to six months and it becomes a company that has a huge install base, People aren't leaving, but there's no catalyst for super cycle per se. And presumably, you know, the value of that install base becomes less and less because you risk that install base just migrating elsewhere. Sure.
- [15:02]
Dan Ives
And just not monetizing. And I think that's, that's the biggest problem when you look at all these hyperscalers from Microsoft to Google, whatever. It's monetization. Look, that's the thing. If we. You go through the next three to six months and it feels you're on the treadmill, 2.5 speed Apple, you get nervous because it's hard to pound the table as that goes through.
- [15:23]
Melissa Lee
So you're saying to Tim Cook, basically, he's on the clock when it comes to your rating.
- [15:26]
Dan Ives
We've talked about him on the clock. This is the time to do deals. This is, this is not the time to do some grandstanding and wait till next year. You have the biggest tech industrial revolution that we've ever seen. You cannot have Apple, the biggest install base in the world, looking at, from the outside looking in. You have wartime CEOs across the board. Ma Zuckerberg, everything the Dell is doing, of course, the Godfather, Jensen Cook can't just be sitting there at a park bench drinking lemonade, watching this F1 race go through.
- [15:58]
Melissa Lee
Dan, great to see you. Thank you very much. Dan of Wedbush Mike, what do you think? Do you think Apple is on the clock? How, how long would you give it?
- [16:07]
Tim Seymour
Well, as far as the retail investor base is concerned, I think one of the things that tends to attract them is they buy the things that are, they know and that they interact with all the time. And until you start seeing that installed base decline so that they're not carrying iPhones around, they're not interacting with CarPlay and things like that, I think they're still going to continue to hold on to the, hold on to the stock. So I don't know that many of those holders are necessarily, you know, biding their time waiting for the story. However, it is really important for them to take that on because, you know, this is how people interact with devices now and if somebody else actually starts making real headway, that's when you start getting a device pivot. So, you know, BlackBerry had better functionality than Apple did in its time and I think that's essentially what Dan's alluding to here.
- [16:56]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Tim, in terms of China, it's interesting because it looks like the China problem has been put to bed or at least for now. But at the same time in China the competition is much fiercer when it comes to an AI enabled device and so the market share that Apple has there is much, much more vulnerable than here in the US well and the.
- [17:19]
Mike Koh
Market share even before we kicked into high gear AI and high gear geopolitics was already rapidly eroding. And so I think China is going to continue to be a place where Apple is going to struggle, at least relative to where they were. But I get back to that. This is a company that they're not a hardware company anymore. And so that 2.3 billion installed base, I like the, the metaphor is great and I got a nice visual of Tim on a sunny park bench sipping some lemonade. But I think with 2.3 billion installed base, especially when apps going forward are going to be AI interactive and Apple is going to be there for that, I don't know who else is going to be there in that kind of size. So you. Yes, Urgency. Why not? There should be. And perplexity would be well worth the investment in terms of the market cap move. It would probably do that five times, I'm sure what they'd have to pay. So I'd like to see that. But I'm not concerned that Apple can't be delivering. And again WWDC has been all more at least about showing where they really truly can be engaging those, those apps that are going to be AI driven and they haven't had that yet. And that's something that I think will be a pretty exciting moment.
- [18:29]
Melissa Lee
Really in the mood for lemonade now. I mean it really sounds delicious and cold and refreshing. But let's get to the theory. I'm crossing back above the $4000 mark today, its highest level since December. It's up 15% this week. The rally pushing bit Mine Immersion Technologies Co. The world's largest Etherium holder up 62% this week. It's up more than 1100% since fund strats Tom Lee became chair sharply gaming and a theory of treasury company also seeing strength up nearly 40% this week. Of course the bull case for Etherium is it's what stablecoins run on. It's going to be the next you know, holding of a like a, you know like months like a mike I was going to say microstrategy strategy was before you have all these new Ethereum treasury companies.
- [19:16]
Patient Advocate
Yeah, I mean I think listen there has to be a second player and we talked about Nvidia versus amd, we've talked about about Novo and Lilly. It's not necessarily where it's just a one man race and I know that there have been a lot of popular opinions that it's bitcoin and then everybody else but I do think there is some interesting technology there particularly with the new governmental support around stablecoin. So I do think for those retail investors as we've been speaking about that are chasing some additional bet and perhaps feel like okay, bitcoin's run a bit too far far. I'm not sure if I really want to allocate $118,000 or wherever it is currently at spot to that. This may be the next best alternative and I think that sets up at least the risk reward. Seems a lot more imbalanced in trading down to a do a doge or some other type of mean coin.
- [20:05]
Carter Worth
I mean it's a catch up trade if nothing else. Right. Hit a 6 year relative low to Bitcoin and right to a prior low to the penny and bounced aggressively. The presumption is after backing off 15% two weeks ago and now reasserting itself it can break out from this range and continue higher.
- [20:19]
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up an ad tech wreck. The trade desk diving nearly 40% after earnings. What Amazon has to do with the drop and who else is getting caught up in the move? That's next. And more than a glimmer of hope for gold, the precious metal hitting a Record high. The Charmaster says the run isn't over yet. More Fast Money right after this.
- [20:40]
Cosentyx Representative
This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on cnbc. CNBC make it's online course, how to build a standout personal brand. Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step.
- [20:59]
Mike Koh
There's no time like now to start.
- [21:01]
Melissa Lee
Building your personal brand.
- [21:02]
Cosentyx Representative
Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand.
- [21:10]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of the trade desk, a big buzz kill in today's otherwise strong market. The ad tech stocks tanking nearly 39%. Notching its worst day on record despite better than expected results. Analysts flagging concerns over increased competition from Amazon, specifically in the digital ad space. Pinterest and Snap also under pressure. Both companies also seeing a more competitive advertising landscape. What was also concerning specifically about the trade desk is not only is it its second 30 plus percent drop just this year on the back of earnings, but management said explicitly Amazon is not a competitor. When every single analyst on the street said Amazon is a competitor. Which seems a little tone deaf here. Mike, what do you make of the Trade desk or these ad stocks?
- [21:56]
Tim Seymour
Well, you know, it's. People aren't too enthusiastic. This thing saw massive volumes, I have to say, on the options side. More than 700,000 contracts traded in this. And you know, I mean, it also has a pretty big short interest at this point. It's going to be a pretty woolly ride, I think. I think that much is clear. And I am a little bit concerned as far as Alphabet is concerned. That was one of the names I kind of liked. Thought it was a little beaten up at the beginning of the year. But you know, I think this is kind of a reflection of just how much the landscape is changing for basically, you know, online ad sales at this point. And I think that these guys are obviously being hurt by it. But I'm a little bit concerned about Alphabet too.
- [22:40]
Patient Advocate
I think I'm more concerned about the tone deafness that you mentioned than I am the price drop because again, we've seen similar types of moves. It's a higher beta name, it trades at a higher valuation. So that isn't what completely shocks me. It's perhaps management's failure to really understand the competitive landscape. I juxtapose this with what we're seeing from matter in terms of how they're using AI to like really streamline and target their ad. And I wonder if there's a situation where the air is essentially being sucked out of the room by them. You mentioned Pinterest as well, which also has an AI angle and they've mentioned some weakness coming out of China. You worry about the de minimis loophole being closed. So, you know, I'd probably put in place Karen's three day rule here and wait. But I do think given the volatility and given where they are in terms of their offering, like the one dashboard, it kind of allows you to parcel out what your ad spend is going to be. I do think you will find an attractive entry point. I just don't think it's one that you want to rush in yet.
- [23:39]
Melissa Lee
There are a lot of price target increases on Pinterest despite the drop in the stock today, which I thought was kind of interesting.
- [23:45]
Carter Worth
I mean, so whether it's a three or six, there's no real rule to that, so to speak. But it's never good technique to buy something that has just dropped in gap for a reason. And the reason was something to do with the fundamentals. Right? And so it's not just this. It's traditional advertising or public group. It's WPP in London, it's Omnicom. They're all under a lot of pressure. And generally speaking, the idiom from the English language is let the dust settle. Whether there's a four day settling in the dust or 10 days, it's stand aside, wait till things a little clearer and then make a judgment.
- [24:17]
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [24:22]
Cosentyx Representative
Solid gold gains. The precious metal hitting a fresh all time high for the first time since April. The chartmaster breaks down where the glimmering trade is heading from here. Plus, is the market giving the all clear after a big week of gains? Or is doom hiding in next week's economic data? Our next guest says hot inflation numbers could be enough to break the rally. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. Back right after this CNBC make it's online course how to build a standout personal brand. Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step.
- [25:02]
Mike Koh
There's no time like now to start building your personal brand.
- [25:05]
Cosentyx Representative
Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand.
- [25:11]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Gold hitting a fresh all time high today, posting its 26 record settle this year ending the day just under $3,500. The precious metal now up than 32% this year. The miners climbing even higher. Of the GDX ETF surging more than 70% in 2025. And the Chartmaster is hitting the technicals on the metals next move. So what did you see, Carter?
- [25:32]
Carter Worth
Well, really, they change places all the time. Right. For quite some time, gold was leading and the miners were lagging because there's a lot of doubt. And then of course they flipped. And you can see the comparative chart here. It's been the real story has been the beta and the leverage in operating companies versus the commodity itself with just as you mentioned, miners almost doubling the performance of bullion. But that's the opportunity for bullion. Here we have two identical charts of spot gold rather than the futures. And we've yet to actually make a new high, but it's very close. And the presumption is that we do indeed break out the second of the two identical charts. You'll see as annotated here, the presumption is that we move up and out of that formation, converging trend lines. Call it a wedge, call it a trail, doesn't want you to call it. It is a set up for typically higher prices. So long gold.
- [26:21]
Melissa Lee
All right, Mike, you noticed some bullish activity as well?
- [26:25]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean, so he referenced the futures. It's a Comex traded contract. The December 3700 calls were the most active. So just under 1800 contracts trading there, those things were about 56 and a half bucks each. So times 100 ounces, times 1800 contracts, we're looking at about 10 million bucks in premium to the upside. Looks like probably 7% upside is what they're betting on by the expiration. And by the way, remember, these are options on futures. These expire in November. So it isn't even going all the way to the end of the year that people are expecting that kind of move.
- [26:57]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, and of course there's the politics involved here. We saw a huge move in today's session on news that the tariffs would hit gold from Switzerland. But we hear also that an EO is going to be issued shortly or in some time that will clarify such a rule. Tim, what's your favorite metal these days and how does that matter in your view right now to the trade?
- [27:22]
Mike Koh
I think it matters. I think that some of the Drivers for, for PGMs overall are not necessarily the same. And you know, also think of the rhetoric that's going on between the BRIC nations and Trump. They are the biggest buyers of gold. And so the things that have taken gold to 3400, there's not one element of them and there's five core elements. I don't need to get into them because everybody knows them. But if you want to buy bitcoin, you definitely want to buy gold. Ultimately the argument about the miners is the analyst community as they should be, but are very far behind in terms of their spot gold price and their models. So they're most of them are on 3100, some are upgrading to 3200. I still think they should be upgrading more, but it comes down to the operational leverage. Carter referenced this these for $2800 and $2500 an ounce in gold a year and a half. Two years ago when inflation was peaking, these guys were actually not competitive. They didn't have the operational leverage. That has changed. So their costs have stabilized and they are printing money right now. There will be a lot more upgrades and the gold miner should outperform very long. GDX Log Agnico and Wheaton in idvo my etf I think there's a lot more to go here. I don't think investors have missed anything.
- [28:36]
Patient Advocate
Yeah, I just, I would just make sure that that investors aren't conflating what the administration is putting out around tariffs versus the fundamentals that support gold being higher. Tim alluded to a lot of them, but I think the friction now between US and brics definitely in light of the India tariffs might might be an addition to the bullish case.
- [28:54]
Melissa Lee
Here is a quick Would you rather Carter before we leave Bitcoin or gold? Which chart looks better?
- [29:01]
Carter Worth
Gold having again rested for four or five months and has the breakout potential, whereas bitcoin is just in an uptrend and can continue.
- [29:10]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, markets have gotten back in rally mode. But could next week's CPI print change everything? Our next guest says tariff trouble could be about to show up in a big, big way. More fast money into.
- [29:24]
Tim Seymour
Mr.
- [29:25]
Cosentyx Representative
Moment of Fast. Catch us anytime on the Go Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [29:35]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks closing out a big week of gains on a high note. The Dow up 207 points. The S&P gaining more than three quarters of a percent. The NASDAQ closing at a record for the second straight day. It is up nearly 4% this week. Palantir capping off a five day winning streak to close at its own record. The software stock blew the doors off earnings expectations on Monday, its gains further cementing it as the best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. With a strong week in the books. Markets now turn their attention to the July CPI report coming out On Tuesday. Can the numbers derail the recent rally? Let's bring in Jack Genesis. What's. He's a lead portfolio strategist at Natixis. Jack, great to have you with us. What are your expectations? Do we actually start seeing inflation from tariffs show up?
- [30:19]
Jack Genesiewicz
You know, I think if you look at the most recent prints that we've had, we're seeing signs of it starting to emerge. But you know, the bigger issue here is simply that spread between the goods and services side.
- [30:29]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [30:29]
Jack Genesiewicz
We're seeing the goods prices drift higher as a result of those tariffs, but the services side of the equation continues to disinflate and those are really somewhat offsetting each other. So if that spread begins to widen out in favor of the goods inflation, then I think we've got some things to maybe potentially worry about in here.
- [30:45]
Melissa Lee
Yeah. How concerned were you about that jobs number last week? Not that I want to talk about a week old number, but in the context of, you know, expecting cpi, expecting retail sales as well next week, how will you piece together those pieces if we do see the goods number start to inflate?
- [31:00]
Jack Genesiewicz
You know, there's plenty of data points showing that we are seeing a slowing of the economy and obviously the labor market is going to be front and center because that's going to lead right into consumption. And when you start to look at the guts of that jobs report, you know, there's plenty of weak points you can sort of look at in there, whether it be the employment to population ratio for the prime age workforce area, the labor force participation rate to the job diffusion index, you know, they're all pointing to weaker sides of that job report. So we are seeing some weakness in the labor market. It's just a question of whether that starts to accelerate in the near term.
- [31:35]
Patient Advocate
Jack Bono one here. Would you mind speaking a bit to consumption versus I spend capex as it pertains to or as it relates to quarterly GDP figures and perhaps what we might be able to tease out of that data and dynamic there.
- [31:51]
Jack Genesiewicz
Yeah, I mean that's the key for us and one of the big takeaways from the second quarter earnings numbers, right. It's we're really firing, it seems like on one cylinder and that one cylinder is that Capex spend, right. When you look at contributions to second quarter GDP, the amount of CapEx spend actually outpaced what we saw from consumption. And so that big driver right now is AI and that's all I eyes on that. If that starts to roll over, you're going to be looking at what the, you know, the next engine could be for growth. And that's going to be a big question mark going forward.
- [32:21]
Melissa Lee
All right, you got to say all those things, Jack. I mean that's, that's normal. You got to be worried about the economic data, etc. But we're a 90% chance of a Fed cut in September. So that's just around the corner. We still got deregulation, the savings from tax. I mean there are a lot of other catalysts there. So even with the concerns about the economy and the economic data in the next month or two, are you bullish on stocks?
- [32:46]
Jack Genesiewicz
Yeah, and I think the panacea for all this is rate cuts. Maybe the question is will we get enough and will we get them in a timely fashion. But you know, I think once you start to move into that rate cutting cycle, you probably begin to unleash some of those animal spirits and that could be quite simply enough to put a floor underneath the market and propel us into the second half or the, the end of this year. So we're actually still retaining a bullish bias and any sort of pullback we get, we're going to be buyers on it because of that.
- [33:12]
Melissa Lee
All right, Jack, great to see you. Have a great weekend. Thank you.
- [33:14]
Jack Genesiewicz
Thank you.
- [33:15]
Melissa Lee
You too, Jack Genesiewicz. All right, Tim, where do you stand here? We close out the week at a record on the Nasdaq.
- [33:23]
Mike Koh
Well, I think the animal spirits have been unleashed. I think the last 10 days for the market have been around a Fed both because of the payroll numbers, because of the dynamics now within the Fed and just the practical reality of some other ingredients we've gotten in the hard data. So I think, I love the fact that the NASDAQ made a new relative high to the S and P today. I love the fact that semis were actually very defensive that there are drivers. I think the earnings season has been one that's continued to show there's nothing about the trade that's, that's been at least undermined in terms of the spend itself. So I think the sectors that are the most interesting to be watching in the market right now remain some of the more cyclical, whether they be the financials, whether they be some of the industrials. Remember we've, we've had some really poor results from people like UPS and other people that are also reads on the economy. But make no mistake, this week's price action on a going in, you know, at the end of this week, you have to look at where the, the NASDAQ is closing and say the leaders are the Mag 7 and they continue to take you higher.
- [34:26]
Carter Worth
I mean the remarkable thing is despite the inauspicious start and the 21% percent plunge in the S and P up here year to date, eight and a half or there, we're running right on schedule for an average year in markets over time going back to the 20s. Appreciate what other index you use Dow for SB about 10% total return 10 and a half and we're, we're kind of on that schedule. So it's not a particularly good year or a fantastic year for certain things. Palantir, of course that's the case. We shall see. It's, it's steep and uncorrected expected I would say from the April 9th plunge low.
- [35:00]
Melissa Lee
Mike, your, your take?
- [35:02]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think because so many are pricing in a cut in September that actually presents some risk. Right. So if we get any kind of a disappointment, then obviously there's downside risk. I don't know that there's a real upside fuel that can be added because it's already baked in the cake in the rate cut expectations. I will say on a fundamental note though that, you know, we had what, 79% of the S&P reporting since July 1st had good revenue beats, you know, annual EPS growth in the neighborhood of 12% which is actually slightly better than average. So you know, I think these two things are kind of offsetting and if we can make it through September. Okay, wouldn't surprise me if we are going to end the year higher than we are right now.
- [35:43]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a shot in the arm for Madrigal, the pharma company reporting strong Q4 results and marking a major regulatory milestone. CEO Bill Sibel gives us a a closer look at the road ahead. That's next. Plus we are digging into the options on some new kids on the market. Block the action on Figma Core Weave and circle. Fast Money's back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Madrigal Pharma gaining more than 14% this week. The company delivering another strong quarter as demand pours. Res Differa, the only FDA approved mash treatment drug, continues to rise. Madrigal also announcing last week that it secured a global license for an oral GLP1 drug that will combine with Rezdifra for a once a day pill. For more on the quarter and the path ahead, Madrigal CEO Bill Sibel joins us now. Bill, great to see you again.
- [36:35]
Bill Sibel
Great to see you, Michelle. Thanks for having me again, Melissa.
- [36:39]
Melissa Lee
But it's been a While. So I understand my.
- [36:41]
Bill Sibel
Melissa, no problem.
- [36:43]
Melissa Lee
No problem. I wanted to ask you about Madrigal because analysts are just over the moon about the results, the growth, the uptake, etc. Right now, 80% of the top target doctors have prescribed res different. I'm wondering how you think about your penetration in the market currently and how fast that can grow going forward.
- [37:02]
Bill Sibel
Yeah, look, we are at the very beginning really of this launch. When you think about it, we're at 7% penetration into the 315,000 diagnosed population. So there are literally years ahead of growth. And I think that's what's really so exciting about this opportunity is it's one of the highest unmet needs. It's the number one cause for liver transplants for women in the United States. Number two for men, soon to be number one. So we're at the very beginning. We're the first product to launch. We've had great penetration into our top prescribing or target physicians, and we're just getting started. So we see ourselves positioned for really almost decades of growth in a growth market that will go on for decades. And we're in the best position in it, we believe.
- [37:48]
Melissa Lee
I want to talk to you also about the exclusive global rights that you have to this. It's basically a derivative of OR for Glipron, which has been in the news just this week with Eli Lilly's data about OR for Glipron. And there was a disappointment embedded in that drug. And of course, for Lilly, they're targeting specifically obesity. And for you, it's for the treatment type 2 diabetes and obesity. The effectiveness wasn't necessarily the issue. It was the ability to stay on the drug, the adverse events, as well as the dropout effects. And I'm wondering how you view that data in relation to the derivative of Orfaglipron that you have rights to right now.
- [38:30]
Bill Sibel
Yeah, actually the data read out as we would want it to have. And let me explain. You know, first of all, what makes this all possible is we just recently had a new patent issued, a dosing patent, which goes out to 2045. So we have a very long Runway to think about how we're going to continue our leadership in the space. One of the things that we learned in our clinical trials was that with Rezdifra, if you in the presence of at least 5% weight loss, just 5% or greater, it actually potentiated the effect of Rezdifra. So for us, a combination with an oral GLP one makes a lot of sense. We don't need to be in the race for the highest amount of weight loss. Like all the other oral GLP1s in the whole category and every competitor entering the space, we're just looking for the right balance of getting us to at least 5% and something that's safe and well tolerated. So when we put the combination together, we really maximize the effect for patients. So the data that was presented this week on Orphaglipron is actually very supportive of the strategic move that we made.
- [39:44]
Melissa Lee
Okay, so the dropout rate wasn't a concern to you or the side effect rate wasn't a concern. I totally get you only need a little bit of weight loss for your population to really see the benefits of Rosdiffera. But at the same time you don't want them to have all those side effects and then eventually say, you know, I don't want that. I'll just stick with the regular Rezdiffera.
- [40:05]
Bill Sibel
Yeah, look, that's a fair, that's a fair question. And we believe that we'll be able to dose it at a low enough, low enough level and that we will titrate the dose so that it should be a well tolerated pill. That's. We are starting from such a great profile with res differa today. We don't want to compromise that. So we wanted to have a oral glp, one that had the properties that made it amenable to a combination therapy. And part of that is we think that it can be dosed at a low enough rate so that we can have that profile remain as being extremely well tolerated and effective for patients. So look, we're still early and we have the work to do, but this is really setting us up. It's a preclinical asset. It's setting us up for that long Runway and that long approach that we have towards leadership in mash.
- [40:55]
Melissa Lee
And you're going to start clinical testing in the first half of next year. That's still on schedule?
- [40:59]
Bill Sibel
That's correct, yes.
- [41:01]
Melissa Lee
Great. Keep us posted. Love to check in with you.
- [41:05]
Bill Sibel
Thanks very much. Thanks a lot. Have a nice weekend.
- [41:08]
Melissa Lee
You too. Coming up, another big slate of earnings next week. Means there's plenty of options. Action. We'll get the trade on Cisco. Take a look at how new names like Figma Core Weave Circle are catching bets. More fast forward 2022. Welcome back to Fast Money. Another big week of earnings coming up. Materials, tech industrials and some of China's biggest names all on deck. And luckily we've got Cohen Carter here for an old school options action. Look at one legacy tech stalwart. So, Carter, you've been looking at Cisco. What did the charts say? That's right.
- [41:39]
Carter Worth
We got two identical charts. Let's get right to them. Cisco is a textbook instance of a stock that broke out post plunge from tariffs above. Its February high checks back to the penny and has reasserted itself. Second of two identical charts. Where might it be headed? If you look at the stock's internal trend line, it projects to around 75, $76 a share for buyers here.
- [42:00]
Melissa Lee
Mike, what's your trade here?
- [42:02]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, the options market, implying a move about 5%. That's in line with the average. I would buy the October 72 and a half calls and then finance that, hoping for a little bit of volume crush by selling the 9-26-66 puts and the upper 78 strike calls. And that's going to basically benefit from that volume crush that you see right after earnings.
- [42:21]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, and Mike, by the way, we got to ask you about some of the newest tech players. We had an IPO this week, Firefly. And so what are you seeing in some of the new issues?
- [42:30]
Tim Seymour
Well, I would say that Circle and Cor, we were the two that really stand out to me. Both of these things are trading more than 300 million, notionally each day. That would actually put them in the top 100 in terms of the Russell 1000 in terms of options activity. So a lot of activity there and some big moves was expected.
- [42:45]
Melissa Lee
All right, so we got a little action on the old and the new kids on the block. Tim, where do you go?
- [42:52]
Mike Koh
Vol Crush scares me, first of all. That sounds painful. No, I mean, yeah, well, it does, but I like Cisco. I'm long Cisco. I think there's a much more predictable earnings stream. I think the company is obviously cheap. Maybe it should be. You're only getting mid. Mid single digits. But I think growth, I think there's a chance for more. But their software and security business is growing and it's real. And the networking dynamic there is something that at least is also working. From what we've heard from clients, I think this is a case where you've got. I think you've got upside here. And I think in the current environment, I would stay long. Cisco.
- [43:31]
Patient Advocate
Yeah, I like that 20% implied move. That's pretty intriguing around core weave. A lot of leverage there on the balance sheet. So I think that's the one that I'd be looking to play.
- [43:40]
Melissa Lee
So, Carter, I have a question for you as a technician. At what point do you start looking at the charts of a of a.
- [43:47]
Carter Worth
Recent ipo right so in principle as a time frame time it's very subjective but I like a standard 2 year high low chart. Now you can sort of get a view of a stock once you have at least six months by doing instead of daily bars you can do 60 minute bars. So you get then a 60, 60 minute 150 day so to speak moving average 150 minute. And if one were pressed why there's insufficient price history I would be long.
- [44:14]
Melissa Lee
Core weave up next Final Trades Final Trades 10.
- [44:29]
Mike Koh
Beware of the volume crush and by the operational leverage and the gold miners GDX Mike yeah once upon.
- [44:36]
Tim Seymour
A time the ultimate growth stock would now value stock Cisco final win.
- [44:41]
Patient Advocate
Things are so bad that they're bad. Resist the urge for the cancer trade.
- [44:45]
Carter Worth
In Intel Carter GLD Gold play it for a breakout.
- [44:49]
Melissa Lee
Have a great weekend. Mad Money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
- [44:56]
Edward Jones
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC, Universities Universal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer CNBC make it's.
- [45:37]
Cosentyx Representative
Online Course how to Build a Standout Personal Brand Three industry experts will show you how to create and grow your brand step by step.
- [45:44]
Melissa Lee
There's no time like now to start building your personal brand.
- [45:47]
Cosentyx Representative
Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand.