Steve Kovach (2:42)

Yeah, so it's actually a pretty smooth launch today so far. I'm old enough to remember when the site would collapse every day the pre orders would start for the iPhone. But here's, here's the good news that those delays that you're talking about in the iPhone pro, that's actually good. That means the lead time is getting longer. That means demand is high. When we wake up Monday morning, we're going to have in our inbox a slew of notes from all the Wall street analysts, kind of picking apart what the delay and what the time looks like. Because the bigger that window is that that's the first read we get as to what the demand looks like. Last year was a disappointing year. We saw those windows shrink, which is actually bad. Yes, people get their phones faster, but for Apple, that's a bad signal. So we're going to want to see longer wait times for these. Now on the iPhone air front, as you mentioned, that is not for sale in China. This was unexpected. We woke up today thinking it would go on sale, but actually there's some regulatory issues. The wireless carriers out there do not yet have the government's approval to sell this phone with the new kind of SIM card they're using. It's called an E Sim. They do have the approval to sell the other three iPhone models, the 17, 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max. So those are going smoothly. Apple tells me they're going to get it on sale in China as soon as they can. But this is probably the hottest device in this cycle right now. It's almost, it's the same price as the Pro was last year that is increases those average selling prices or phones. Very important. And by the way, if you want to hear about these phones, our own Jim Cramer has an exclusive interview coming up next hour on Mad Money with Apple CEO Tim Cook live from that Corning glass factory down there in Kentucky. So a lot more to unpack there with Mr. Cook.

Melissa Lee (4:19)

Yeah, and we saw little clips of it during the day. Yes, Tim Cook turning the iPhone air to its side. Say you can barely see this. Can you see it holding it. I know I was like, I could see that plain as day and then holding it, saying, we're holding the future in our hand.

Steve Kovach (4:34)

But I think he's not being, he's kind of exaggerating and playing Mr. Marketer there a little bit. But at the same time, this is what I've been saying all week. This is Apple going back to what it's good at. Making really cool, desirable gadgets, not focusing on artificial intelligence and software and services which they've been historically weaker at. They are going to really make these devices that people want to go out there and buy. This is an attractive device. This is going to creating a lot of excitement. I was out there in Cupertino earlier this week. One of the top iPhone executives, I was talking to her. She's using the iPhone air. Tim Cook was using the iPhone air. It's not even the best phone they make, but it's that kind of attractive device that's getting people really excited.

Dan Ives (5:13)

So Steve, do you sense that Tim Cook and Apple are kind of, you know, they're not doing, they actually believe that this is about the innovation both in the design body and a better camera and the things that historically have made this cool phone and they've, they've not been innovators. And so it's, it's kind of as everyone's doing AI, they're saying, look over here. And do you think that that's really what, do you think there's a game of misdirection? Not outwardly, as they would put it. Or do you really think that they believe they've delivered a phone here that is as good as they have released ever in terms of, and in terms of what's expected of them in this environment?

Steve Kovach (5:49)

Yeah, I think the short answer is yes. The longer answer is let's talk about the install base too. We see them sitting out artificial intelligence this year. That is so true. Understood. But making the cool phones people want to buy just keeps that ecosystem rolling. 1 billion plus iPhone users in the world. What a company wouldn't want access to this customer. So as Apple pivots away from building artificial intelligence in house to partnering with a Google or an Open Air or an anthropic, whoever it might be, they are in a better position now to do that. Just today we got news that another AI executive, Bloomberg reported, is leaving Apple. I mean, I can't even keep track of, of how many of these people are almost like the companies. It's almost like it's good news. And they're going to be able to do it in a cheap. Assuming they can pull off what they say they can now pull off, they're going to be able to do it in a cheaper way. They're not spending $100 billion a year on capex and building these data centers. They're not spending $100 million going out there poaching talent from OpenAI and rivals. They're letting their talent leave, in fact, so they can do what they're good at, which is making cool phones people want to buy.

Melissa Lee (6:52)

Right? Steve, thank you. Good to see you. Steve Kovach. It's interesting how we sat on the desk the day of the Apple event and we said, you know what? You know, this is not. This is just a thinner phone. What's the big deal? And then the narrative has sort of changed here, and I'm just wondering if you agree with that, Jay.

Karen Feiderman (7:05)

I'm a little surprised, actually. I figure. So you're talking about, all right, they don't need to build it in house, but they know they need it, right? So why wouldn't you wait till they have it to get a flag that incorporates.

Dan Ives (7:16)

It's Friday afternoon. Can I throw a flag on Karen? Who brought the guest back in? Who brought the guest back?

Steve Kovach (7:20)

Oh, we're not supposed to do that. Guest?

Karen Feiderman (7:21)

I don't know. He sort of. All right, sorry.

Steve Kovach (7:24)

Am I technically a guest if I collect a paycheck from this place?

Melissa Lee (7:29)

Yeah, we'll let that go.

Karen Feiderman (7:30)

All right, sorry.

Melissa Lee (7:31)

Thanks, Tim.

Karen Feiderman (7:33)

Trouble with the teacher. Go ahead.

Dan Ives (7:36)

I was never that guy, by the way. Happening to me.

Karen Feiderman (7:39)

I believe you.

Dan Ives (7:39)

It was always happening.

Melissa Lee (7:40)

But are you. I mean, do you think the narrative has changed? It's like all of a sudden, Apple's back in the game, innovating, making cool phones that people want.

Dan Ives (7:46)

Well, as the guy on the desk who's long and who kind of defended Apple for not having to be an AI and that being focused on an install base and being focused on the fact that if any, you know, the Craig Moffitt argument earlier in the week, which is that we've removed more China uncertainty. They're never going to make major components in the U.S. craig's gone out of his way to say, I'm not gangbusters, bullish, but. But bears have kind of converted. Tim Cook has done masterclass work with the White House. Apple has a cool product. Everybody here on this desk probably has to get a new phone sometime in the next year or two. I mean, mine is barely working. And. And the fact is they're going to be serving up AI through whether it's Google Gemini, whether it's dynamics in terms of partnerships, whether it is. Is their ability to actually do multiple deals. I don't know what they're going to do but I don't think that we should be surprised that people are finally saying no good news was priced in that's good for the stock now.

Carter Braxton Worth (8:43)

Well, a couple of things for and then we can get to how long, how often do you suppose to replace them and with four kids they break. I think I'm getting them sort of. I mean they're coming into my household every three to four months. It's crazy. But anyway one, we're on the three year anniversary of its relative peak to the sector.

Dan Ives (8:59)

Right.

Carter Braxton Worth (8:59)

So that was in. It was in September of 2022. The second thing that's important of course is that Apple showed a little bit of life over the past month and a half but it's precious little Right off its April low it's up 38%. The tech sector is up 58% which leaves the stock still down on the year and 10% below its Christmas peak. Do you fade this move? I think you do.

Karen Feiderman (9:21)

Well, I'm not, I'm not really long. So yes, I agree. I mean also I come into valuation, you know we looked at this very differently but end up at similar place. It's expensive and I don't really see the catalyst. This to me was not the catalyst.

Carter Braxton Worth (9:33)

Do they have any earnings growth out the buyback? I mean EPS is one thing when.

Karen Feiderman (9:37)

You'Re buying back and no, without the.

Carter Braxton Worth (9:38)

Buyback is their net income growing?

Karen Feiderman (9:41)

Yes, barely. Right. But not in the buyback for a long time was a tremendous thing to do.

Dan Ives (9:46)

So it'd be great if we had an analyst coming on the desk to talk about it.

Melissa Lee (9:50)

Just settle right in what wishes Dan ives out with iPhone 17 preorder predictions and a new note today. Dan is here. He is the firm's global head of technology research. Dan, good to have you.

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (10:00)

Great to be here.

Melissa Lee (10:01)

What are you hearing right now about demand for this phone?

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (10:03)

I think air definitely that's been the upside. I think that's what you've seen in terms of what I believe is going to be the preorder activity up probably about 5, 10% year over year is what we're looking at for iPhone 17 over iPhone 16 plus clearly China, you know that's the X variable. Right. I mean you had this little sort of dent relative to the regulatory but I think overall street expectations definitely are probably too conservative going into this launch.

Melissa Lee (10:30)

I mean I think the streets at 30, 30% holds or something like that which has got to be sort of a historic low. And this is historically a stock that is well liked on the street. So do things line up I mean right now for just sort of that. That bounce in your view?

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (10:43)

I think Karen makes great point in terms of just some of the worries here when it comes to. I think there's three things. One New York City cab drivers bearish on Apple right now. So I think the sentiment overall is one streets very negative numbers going to have to come up and I think as you have number revisions higher that's bullish in terms of for Apple to look when it comes to AI there's better chance me playing in Ryder Cup Beth Page September than anything happening internally at Apple. So they now streets recognize it's going to have to come external. Looks like Google Gemini is going to be the way and the third thing is look Cook's played nice in a sandbox in D.C. so in terms of the tariff sort of dance that he's done, that's been a positive. You set that all up. I think you know 270 is our price target book. To have to have a 350 $400 AI will be that magic sort of wand that needs to happen.

Karen Feiderman (11:35)

Okay, so when. When is that likely to happen? Can it be. It seems to me like this iteration isn't going to be the one that's going to so does it really even matter now?

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (11:45)

Yeah.

Karen Feiderman (11:45)

What does happens here?

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (11:48)

I think it does matter relative to you cannot be on the outside looking at the biggest revenues. The fourth industrial revolution every tech company is going after. But I do think the best thing to happen to Apple was that DOJ positive for Google because that finally reignited the candlelight dinner between Sundar and Cook probably happened in soon to double down that partnership. But what's baked in here is street viewed this as this was going to be a 4 to 5% grower from an iPhone unit perspective now looking likely we'll see our trajectory looks like by 7,8%. The other thing is based on our estimates 315 million iPhones have an upgrade in four plus years of 1.5 billion iPhones. So you do have a lot of pent up demand there and I think that speaks to probably a stock that looks like it's going to move higher over the coming weeks and months.

Dan Ives (12:36)

By the way Dan, I think you could probably make the rider team with with that that jacket. I mean there's no question that they're looking for some fashion flair and I.

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (12:44)

Just wish I had a short game to match it.

Dan Ives (12:46)

Well, Keegan Bradley, by the way, we're not talking, let's talk Apple. But when you were on a month ago, you made the sense that there was an imperative. They did something very quickly. I remember you saying six months or they're dead in the water. And we, maybe we framed it this way, but it was kind of like Is this their BlackBerry moment? And I don't know that it's we're any different than we were six months ago. But you seem more confident and that, that makes sense to me because I just think that the couple things that have happened for Apple in terms of China, in terms of Trump, in terms of dynamics are enough. But something changed for you.

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (13:18)

It's the Google doj. I mean the Google DOJ ruling ironically, AI is ultimately what really got the win there. Yeah, that opens the lane. Now it's not about buying perplexity. It's not about an acquisition. Now that is going to dump.

Dan Ives (13:31)

You don't need to see because again you need to see something because the.

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (13:36)

Reality was you thought that they were going to be hands tied behind their back. They couldn't ultimately do anything with Google. Now that opens it up. So you think about this good news first it was obviously cook in the belly and Oval Office what he's done with Trump in terms of White House and investing from an AI perspective, Kramer being there at the factory. Then you now look at the doj. That was a champagne moment. Then you actually have when you look at air and what looks like the demand trajectory here, better than expected. Well, combo that with sentiment. That's so negative, institutionally speaking on Apple, I think that's a, that's a really good setup in my opinion.

Melissa Lee (14:12)

So walk us through the catalyst and I think this gets to Karen's question. We were expecting an update to Siri right early next year. I mean are you expecting that some sort of a deal with Google would happen by then?

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (14:23)

Yeah, I believe.

Melissa Lee (14:23)

Okay, so that's going to be the.

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (14:25)

Same thing I believe deal with Google. We're not going to have to wait till WWC in June. A deal with Google happens before year end. I think that's something that gets announced in terms of least the initial framework, what that deal looks like. That's the important thing because to Karen's point, there's no magic solution here. That's going to be a driven. But if the street realizes okay here this is going to be an 8.5 and a 10 of a cycle relative to iPhone. But then you actually have over the next year the real one, the one that's going to be the game changer. That's where I think sentiment really starts to change relative to the stock.

Karen Feiderman (14:58)

Just another question about the doj. So we know that that relationship is allowed but other relationships are also allowed. Do you see any other, any other player doing a big deal or does it feel like that poll position is so important that the next one isn't worth however many billions it would be?

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (15:15)

I think they just need each other both so much and the reality is that 20 billion probably goes to 30 billion or more when that re ups, you know, because it's going to be a much bigger deal. And then when it comes to Apple they would, they don't really want to be forced into a perplexity deal so they're going to need Google and they look Google outside of course but there is, they know that Red Phone hits Cupertino and Cook because they need them from an install base that's unparalleled even though it's not exclusive. That's more sort of, you know, from a quote perspective because the reality is it is semi exclusive aggressive.

Melissa Lee (15:48)

Dan, great to see you.

Dan Ives (Wedbush Analyst) (15:49)

Thank you.

Melissa Lee (15:50)

Dan Ives of Wedbush have you gotten more bullish since Monday?

Dan Ives (15:56)

I know I think I'm where I have been and I've had to sit and fight my corner on. I don't think there's any good news in the stock and the multiple doesn't bother me in a market that doesn't care about the multiple and as we as smarter people than me have said the higher multiples not going to sink this market. It's not going to sink Apple either. And so, so I believe that they are going to serve up AI with great deals. Probably a better deal to have Google, Gemini or possibly one of the other folks. And I do think that there is an element of their services business that's probably underappreciated. I think they're going to find a way to get that to be more than a 15% part of the revenue stream and buybacks and things that have made Apple a defensive company or at least a company that investors shouldn't be running too far away from. I mean that's always been the there.

Melissa Lee (16:41)

Yeah, I mean the knock on the, on the valuation is, is a, is a real one. I mean especially when you compare it to a matter or an Alphabet which have lower ps higher growth. I mean they are like growth stocks now we're rerating.

Karen Feiderman (16:53)

It's still significantly lower. Mid 20s versus low 30s.

Melissa Lee (16:57)

Which chart looks the best?

Carter Braxton Worth (16:58)

I mean of those, say let's go with Google first. That's extended now.

Melissa Lee (17:02)

Okay.

Carter Braxton Worth (17:03)

Harvest a little bit. The one that hasn't done that, that we know Oracle is just on, that closed very poorly today. The one that really hasn't broken out of the two. Well, to both Amazon and Metta. They are basically toying with their February highs. A little bit above, a little bit below. I think those are better than a lot of the extended ones.

Melissa Lee (17:19)

All right. And another reminder here, do not miss Jim Cramer's full interview with Apple CEO Tim Cook. That's at the top of the hour on Mad Money. Well, a wild week for Opendoor. Even with today's 14% loss, the real estate stock is up 36% this week week and almost 470% this year. Shares jumping yesterday after announcing a new CEO and that co founder Keith Raboy would return to the company as board chair for boy joining squawk on the street today. Commenting on recent retail trader interest in Opendoor and said it is not a meme stock. What do you do with, what do you do though with a meme stock? I mean it's up.

Steve Kovach (17:57)

This is not a meme stock.

Dan Ives (17:58)

So let's talk about what this means is the entire wait. Well, let's, let's talk about this. What is the entire original point of having markets is to allocate capital. Right. First principles.

Steve Kovach (18:10)

Markets are designed to allocate capital.

Dan Ives (18:13)

Consumers are voting with their feet to say we want more capital being allocated to Opendoor.

Melissa Lee (18:18)

That's a good thing.

Dan Ives (18:19)

That's how society should work.

Melissa Lee (18:23)

He must have upset that base of retail investor by saying that really denouncing the term stock.

Karen Feiderman (18:31)

I mean a lot of companies become one or not whether or not they participate in it.

Melissa Lee (18:36)

Right.

Karen Feiderman (18:36)

I mean, to me it does seem very mean. Yesterday you had over the entire float trade. Well, over the entire float trade. Now obviously things can trade multiple times, but that to me would be a sign, for example, and you know, the wild swings in valuation, whatever, it doesn't matter if they can create value. They can create value. I think I saw you in the earlier today talking about what Carvana. Carvana was Mimi.

Melissa Lee (18:58)

Right. And now grew into, graduated into.

Karen Feiderman (19:02)

So you're not saying it can't happen, but this does seem Mimi to me.

Dan Ives (19:06)

Yeah, yeah, I think that's true. We've seen that with a few companies. You can make an argument that Robinhood's gone. That Way too. And, and, but you know, ultimately what does this company do? I mean, if we're going to get at the definition of what a meme stock is, it's something that gets caught up in hysteria, especially because the stock was down and out. And that gives an opportunity for people either to say, all right, I'm. What were meme stocks? Meme stocks during COVID were seemingly stocks that were broken companies that seemingly had big short interests. And there was a group of people that were trying to be opportunistic to say we can either squeeze people that have that short interest or we can actually get behind a company that we think is changing. I think, you know, look at AMC and look at an example of people that got so confused to try to believe that this company, suddenly the fundamentals around their core business were going to change just because there were a lot of, I would call those capital markets hieroglyphics. And therefore, you know, it may be good in the short run, there may be an opportunity and let's see what happens to GameStop. I mean it's really still an open issue.

Carter Braxton Worth (20:07)

I mean the key is short run, right? This is very much something to trade. If you're going to do it, you know what you're doing right. You're engaging in something that is highly volatile. That is what, how would I write the article.

Dan Ives (20:20)

Open?

Carter Braxton Worth (20:21)

Down 98% from its high of two years ago is now down only 76%. I mean it's like so what right now? But that doesn't mean you can't trade and make money. So here now it's in play. And I guess I'd be long be long.

Melissa Lee (20:34)

Wow. Coming up, a retail route. The new data weighing on consumer discretionary names today as retailers gear up for the holidays. That's next. Plus another IPO pop. The Winklevoss founded crypto company Gemini making its market debut. The move in that name and how the rest of crypto fared this week don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.

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Melissa Lee (21:59)

New fall arrivals are at Nordstrom Rack stores. Now get ready to save big with up to 60% off. Vince, Kirk, Geiger London and more. How did I not know Rack has Adidas?

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There's always something new.

Melissa Lee (22:11)

Join the NordicLub at Nordstrom Rack to unlock exclusive discounts on your favorite brands. Shop new arrivals first and more. Plus get an extra 5% off every rack purchase with a Nordstrom credit card. Great brands, great prices. That's why you Rack. Welcome back to Fast Money. Retail under pressure today. Abercrombie, Gap, Lulu and Dick's. Just some of the names deep in the red that after the latest read on consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since May. Karen, you flag this. I mean as we're going into the holiday season, came off of back to school and they're not performing well.

Karen Feiderman (22:47)

The stocks are performing well. I mean we did have that sentiment number which you can think of as something that this group of stocks would be very sensitive to. So I don't know if that's what happened. I mean I find it interesting when all different kinds of retailers in all different kinds of space, they're all down, even like tjx, which usually does better relatively. And Abercrombie not doing well at all. Nike as well. Long that long TJ Long Gap. Difficult day, but I think I saw a lot of good retail stuff last night. RH is different story, right? Different, different kind of buyer, much more expensive items. But I am still positive on the retailers.

Melissa Lee (23:26)

Are you?

Carter Braxton Worth (23:27)

Well, let's just one way to look at it is if you look at the XRT, which is that equal weight retail ETF, which has about 150 names, could be Monroe Muffler, up to Amazon, they're all equal weight. The bull Muffler. Yeah.

Melissa Lee (23:39)

Has never been mentioned on the show.

Carter Braxton Worth (23:42)

The point is I was trying to pick something arbitrary and unknown. I think I succeeded at that. Okay, so this ETF is highly correlated with the Russell 2000. Right? Because it's equal weight, it's got about a 70% correlation. It's come a long way.

Dan Ives (23:56)

Right.

Carter Braxton Worth (23:56)

I mean just as the Russell 2000 has. And my hunch is you're starting to see cracks now. Now, right? You're seeing individual names are peeling away. Yes, there's the Ralph Laurens that are continuing but generally speaking would fade this area.

Melissa Lee (24:10)

I mean just so what Karen was doing in terms of connecting it to other consumer facing names, you can connect this also to the restaurant trade. I mean it's a lot of the similar sort of characteristics. Very tough situation right now for Kava Sweetgreen. Yeah, exactly.

Dan Ives (24:23)

Yeah. I think this is a combination of quietly you've had consumer discretionary as a group, group be third in line after tech and communications. And so you know, the group has generally done well. When you look at Lulu, Lulu hasn't done well for a long time. Nike, outside of a couple of spurts, hasn't done well for a long time. Cracks in the tj, TJ Max kind of armor are things that are worth watching because this thing's been bulletproof for many different cycles. But I think you think about consumer discretionary. There are places here athletic career that I don't want to be. I don't really want to be in discretionary apparel, especially in places where we've had big thematic or big kind of dynamics around. I think athleisure is a place to be, to be wary. I'm long Nike, but I'm long Nike because I think Nike's gone through this period and I think Nike is not expensive but I think consumer discretionary and and if is one consumer is one, you know, Michigan or consumer confidence number enough to start selling off discretionary. Absolutely not. Remember how wrong the soft data has been but I think there are parts of discretionary that are no touch.

Melissa Lee (25:27)

There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

Bluehost Advertiser / Sempra Advertiser (25:31)

Crypto back in the spotlight. A Winklevoss founded Crypto Exchange, the latest name to make its public debut. How it fared and whether Bitcoin's momentum can continue after a big week of gains. Plus more concerns for vaccine makers. On a new new report on the hhs. The potential moves from the Trump admin.

Dan Ives (25:51)

Weighing on those names.

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Melissa Lee (26:39)

No way.

Carter Braxton Worth (26:40)

Jim, this is incredible, but you can.

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Carter Braxton Worth (26:44)

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Dan Ives (26:49)

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Carter Braxton Worth (26:51)

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Dan Ives (27:00)

And count on Sundays with the NFL on CBS and Paramount.

Melissa Lee (27:10)

Welcome back to Fast Money Shares a Winklevoss founded Gemini Space Station jumping more than 14% in its market debut today. The crypto company which priced above its expected range at $28 opened $37. The move comes amid a big week for crypto. Bitcoin up more than 4%. Ether down nearly 8% higher in Solana, way outperforming up nearly 17% here. Big week for IPO. Big week for crypto. All of that positive.

Dan Ives (27:36)

Look, it's been this week. I know there was a lot of themes this week, but the one I think is the most important is this was IPO bonanza week and there was 4 billion in new product and whatnot. I do think though, so this, this Gemini IPO is important. I think first of all, I give the Winklevoss twins a lot of credit for hanging in there through a lot of difficult times. And this, this was way oversubscribed. And I do think that if you think of where they were talking price range was 17 to 19 comes to 28 trades higher. I mean, this is the institutional interest. And I've spoken to folks at the company and you know, the bottom line is after years of going around to get institutional sponsorship, now institutional sponsorship is there. And I think, I think even when and if there's, there's eventually there will be a change even in Washington. I think the progress that crypto has made under the Trump administration, there's no putting the genie back in the bottle. Institutional follow through here is clear. And they're out there and I think this is out there and going higher.

Melissa Lee (28:32)

By the way, there's a heavy retail allotment here in this I 30% goes to hood. Yeah, exactly. Right. So they totally embrace the role of the retail investor in the making up of not just the crypto trade. I mean, enduring all those crypto winters that they went through. But Also in the interest in their equity trade. Exactly.

Karen Feiderman (28:51)

Yeah. It's interesting though. I look at the space, you know, we looked at Bullish, which, you know, opened and traded up to 1:18. I forget exactly the the offer price and is now not quite at the low, just about at the lows since then at 51 and change. So this, you know, $4 on 28 is, it's not terrible, but I think it's actually a little bit underwhelming. I agree with Tim that I think the most notable thing, at least for any investment banking group, right. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all of them, bank of America, Wells and Citi. This activity is really good activity.

Dan Ives (29:31)

We're here.

Melissa Lee (29:31)

Yes. Yeah, definitely. Just quickly on the crypto, like which chart looks the best right now?

Carter Braxton Worth (29:36)

Yeah, I mean, the best trade, of course, has been a theorem. Catching up to Bitcoin. That has happened and now it's back to its highs of four or five years ago, whereas bitcoin is gradually making new highs. I like them both here for generally higher prices.

Melissa Lee (29:49)

Coming up, a new report hitting shares of Pfizer and Moderna. Today, the potential news out of the Trump administration that could take a toll on the vaccine industry. Those details next. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks closing mixed to end the week. The Dow falling 273 points. The S and P virtually flat. The NASDAQ of more than 0.4% setting a record close for the fifth day in a row. And more gains in media stocks. Warner brothers up another 17% on expectations Paramount's guidance will make a bid for the company as soon as next week. Shares surging nearly 30% yesterday when the news first broke. Meantime, vaccine makers getting hit hard on reports that Trump administration officials will link 25 child deaths to Covid shots during a key vaccine panel meeting next week. Pfizer down 4% while Moderna fell by more than 7. Novavax and BioNTech also down sharply. For the very latest, let's get to Angelica Peebles. Angelica.

Angelica Peebles (30:50)

Hey, Melissa. Well, NBC is reporting that health officials are planning to present their findings next week at the CDC's vaccine advisory committee meeting. Now, we don't have an agenda or any presentations for that meeting yet, and typically those materials are posted in advance to give the public time to review them. We do know that the committee plans to weigh who should get a Covid shot this fall, with the FDA already approving boosters for a narrower group of people than we have seen in years past. Now, whether children need Covid vaccines, of course, has been a big focus of this administration. Just last week, FDA Commissioner Marty Makarya said that the FDA was investigating reports of children who died after receiving a COVID vaccine. But an HHS spokesperson says the FDA and CDC routinely analyze data from a federal vaccine safety database and those reviews are being shared publicly. But until that happens, any of this should be considered pure speculation. Moderna, meanwhile, standing by the safety of its COVID vaccine, saying that it's rigorously reviewed by the company and regulators around the world who haven't found any new or undisclosed safety concerns in children or pregnant women with more than 1 billion doses distributed. So much more to come next week.

Melissa Lee (31:58)

Melissa, the American Academy of Pediatrics. Angelica and correct me if I'm wrong already, they do recommend Covid shots for 23 months to I think six years. So we're talking about a smaller group, Right, that would be potentially be affected by the change in recommendations.

Kate Rogers (32:15)

Right.

Angelica Peebles (32:16)

So already though, we have seen changes to those recommendations. The FDA approving the COVID shots for narrower groups, saying that really in terms of the youngest children, you shouldn't get one unless you have a comorbidity. Now, exactly how the ACIP weighs in is still something that's on the horizon that we have to see. And then the question becomes will doctors prescribe it sort of off label, Will they start, you know, giving the COVID vaccines to kids no matter what and then whether insurers will cover it? So there's a lot more to come here. And I think, you know, this is really interesting because of course this has been such a flashpoint. But at the same time, last year only 13% of kids that were eligible for Covid booster got one. So this is such a heated political issue, but really when we think about the overall impact, it's probably going to be a lot smaller than that. But this could be something to watch in terms of what happens with other vaccines. And as we start sort of going through that immunization schedule for children that the HHS and the secretary have talked about going through. So definitely one to watch.

Melissa Lee (33:17)

Watch still. Angelica, thanks. Angelica Peebles. For more, let's bring in BMO head of health care research, Evan David Segerman. Evan, great to have you with us. How do you think about this in terms of the impact on other vaccines as Angelica pointed out?

Evan David Segerman (33:31)

Well, I think this general anti vaccine rhetoric is not great for public health. You know, as Angelica said, the COVID vaccine for kids is such a small portion of the current sales. I don't even model it out in my Pfizer and Biontech models, for what it's worth, really the bulk of my sales are contracted outside of the United States and of course for folks who are, you know, older folks who are at risk in the United States. But it's this vaccine rhetoric that just has a cascading effect to hpv, mmr. All the vaccines that kids usually get and of course is rhetoric out of Florida isn't great either.

Melissa Lee (34:06)

It seems like it would be key to see what insurers do if insurers decide ultimately to still pay for vaccine despite what a sip, the committee that approves vaccines despite what ACIP recommends. I mean, are you looking at that as sort of key to understanding how their recommendations will be viewed? For sure.

Evan David Segerman (34:29)

And I think the insurance coverage and also the availability to get a vaccine just by a pharma, pharmacist without a prescription is really important as well. You know, I don't see, you know, the mmr, the hpv, all these, you know, kind of common vaccines being taken away or not insured. I think that would actually probably cause some backlash. I think the COVID vaccine is a bit of a flashblood. There's a push and pull saying there's not enough data. And I really, it just seems like more of a political push versus, you know, something that's actually a public health problem. I mean the, the diseases are public health problems, but you know, the use the vaccines are not.

Karen Feiderman (35:06)

Karen, thanks for being on. So to further that point. Do you think regardless how this particular thing plays out, that, that still these. There's such a headwind against, you know, Moderna and Pfizer?

Evan David Segerman (35:19)

Well, I think, you know, the. So for Biontech in Pfizer, for example, I mean Moderna's whole business is Covid. Pfizer obviously much more diversified. It's incredible. It's a shrinking part of the business. So there are other issues that Pfizer is dealing with. You know, we're looking at their Eloise, what are they going to acquire their whole oncology franchise with Biontech? Covid is part of the revenue component, but a lot of the go forward is what they're doing on oncology. Recall that they have a big partnership with Bristol myer for the PDL1 VEGF, bispecific and lung cancer. So from an investor perspective, you know, the, the focus is shifting away from vaccines. But from a headline perspective, a day like this really shows that investors get a little jittery or the generalists get a jittery and they're not thinking about kind of what else These businesses have.

Melissa Lee (36:05)

Have Evan, while we have you, we are on the eve of a big diabetes meeting in Europe over the weekend and next week. And I'm wondering what are the key days, the key presentations readouts that you're looking for.

Evan David Segerman (36:16)

So I think the biggest is of course the Orphaglipron data which I came on mid August, we spoke about. We're going to learn more about what happened with that, why did it underperform and most importantly what clinicians are saying about that. I think if I were to look at this whole event, I really want to Understand Is that 11 12% good enough? Do I need that 16%? What is an acceptable nausea and vomiting rate? And then also what about the food effect? We talked about that when it came to high dose oral semaglutide as a potential headwind for Novo Nordisk. And is that a real issue that clinicians see if and when they use this in the real world?

Melissa Lee (36:56)

All right, Evan. Thanks Evan. David Siegman of bmo. All right. You on Pfizer.

Dan Ives (37:01)

So yeah, I think Pfizer has largely been de risked. I appreciate the pointing out just what and how a slowing significance, a lower significance in terms of vaccines of Covid's business model. Their CGN acquisition is providing a lot of opportunity. Oncology is providing a ton of opportunity for the company. If you look at it on a, on a PE multiple, if you look at a 6% dividend yield, maybe not a reason to buy a company, may be a reason to buy this one. I think you're well paid to hang in there for a company that's been de risked. And I don't, you know, again it's, I thought I was buying this thing when we had gotten all the bad news on vaccines out of it a couple years ago. Apparently not. But you know, I think you've priced in the vaccine dynamics.

Carter Braxton Worth (37:45)

I mean Pfizer has attempted to bottom and then come to life and then faltered and come to life. There are traps in it just has that feel to it. Value drop.

Melissa Lee (37:54)

We do have a news alert on Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Megan Cassell's got the details there. Megan.

Kate Rogers (38:00)

Melissa? That's right. New documents here in that ongoing case surrounding Lisa Cook and her various mortgages. Reuters is reporting now that they have seen a document, a loan estimate from 2021 that they say shows Cook declared her Atlanta home would be a vacation home. Now this appears to undercut fraud claims from the Trump administration as they say that she had tried to list that Atlanta in addition to a Michigan home listing both of them as her primary residences. Now Reuters says they've seen this document that shows she had listed from the start the Atlanta home as a vacation home. So it appears again to undercut those claims of fraud. Reuters says they tried to reach Cook for comment on this and weren't able to reach her. But we should note she has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing in this case. They also say that some secondary documents could also help Cook's case that they reviewed here that saying that she never requested a tax exemption for the Georgia home as a primary residence. They say that's according to property records and to a Fulton county tax official here. So Melissa, as this case progresses, just appears now to be some documents, according to Reuters, reviewed by Reuters, that show she did not list her Georgia home as a primary residence.

Melissa Lee (39:10)

All right, Megan, thanks. Megan Casella. Coming up, it was a call heard around the world. Dan Nathan getting bullish on Tesla. The technicals last night. And now we've got the chartmaster plugging in. And where he sees that stock heading next, Fast Money back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Tesla up another 7% today, gaining nearly 12% since Monday. That's the stock's best week since May. Now just yesterday our perma bear, Dan Nathan said he turned all silver linings on this one.

Dan Ives (39:47)

I think there's really something interesting that's going on in the stock of late. The bulls and the bears agree that the EV business is bad. I think the consensus for Q3 deliveries is probably low. I think there's probably been a pull forward. If you think about that seventy five hundred dollar tax credit that's going away at the end of the month. And look at how this stock we just want to pull the chart up here. It looks like it's a beneficiary of this rotation.

Melissa Lee (40:13)

See what the chartmaster says about the stock now now that it's up 13% since Monday. Do you agree, did you agree with that premise that the start the stock chart was looking better?

Carter Braxton Worth (40:22)

Well, sure. I mean let's talk about it. So we did a poll, institutional clients on Monday, August 18th and it came back 69% bullish. So 7030 the stock was trading at maybe 330. It's 395 now. We're up almost 20% percent from that point. We have two charts here at this point. It's it has broken out from the wedge it's been in. This is the before you see it there converging trend lines. Right. It spiked post election. It was a trap drops 50% and now it's in the apex. This, the second chart of the two. It has moved out of that apex. So you have a big move out of the formation. Typically that's bullish and you can get some follow through. But hour to hour, day to day, it has a bit of a pile on. There's a lot of people sort of embracing something that was dormant and that's what makes people want to buy, which is good technique. After something moves, you want to go after it, but it's up quite a bit. And I think at this point I would sell calls or hedge longs.

Melissa Lee (41:16)

What would you do as a trade? We know you don't like the stock.

Dan Ives (41:19)

Yeah, I think we've seen rotation into different parts of tech. You know, Tesla's been unloved for a long time. It should have been unloved. The stock even, you know, before two days ago ago had rallied almost 60% off the April low. So as Cars pointed out, it's not like this has just suddenly turned around. I mean this stock is, has had a pretty good run and as we talked about fundamentally, kind of even before the election spike, this was a company that no one was expecting any good news on from the analyst community, at least on deliveries until 3Q of 25. So again, where are expectations? Dan's point is head. Hey, if both sides of the equation are now pretty much in harmony, that the EV business is awful, maybe that's a good reason. But anyway, I'm not chasing this one here. How about, as they say, part of.

Melissa Lee (42:09)

This momentum at least is also the notion that people are going to rush to go buy cars to get that 70$500 tax credit, which though is also benefiting EV makers across the board, whether it be pure EV makers or a GM, I would imagine.

Dan Ives (42:24)

Yeah, we're buying those credits, right?

Karen Feiderman (42:25)

I mean you're. Well, I don't know if some of the foreign credits foreign may be manufactured here, but foreign plates get that tax credit here. I don't know. The Tesla, Dan, being bullish, I do find hilarious. And I wonder if you see that clip and think that is an AI. Somebody just made that up.

Melissa Lee (42:44)

I know, it's real.

Karen Feiderman (42:45)

No, I believe you.

Dan Ives (42:45)

It's real.

Melissa Lee (42:46)

We witnessed it. Right? We, Tim and I were here.

Dan Ives (42:48)

Yeah, we saw it in the past. Not AI Dan.

Melissa Lee (42:51)

Yeah, we thought we should play it instead of just paraphrasing because I think that it was, would be, you know, completely unbelievable to some of our viewers who might have missed the show yesterday.

Carter Braxton Worth (42:59)

One thing about this, it's just a beta trade, right? I mean it after the election it was up 130% more than on its lows of the sort of tariff swoon. It was down 58%. Now it's up 85% from the tariff load to, to Tim's point, it's a momentum stock which is loved and hated but it's had a big move.

Dan Ives (43:18)

But like a lot of things in life, I mean, good for Dan for change of view and actually, I mean that's, that's important stuff as a trader.

Melissa Lee (43:24)

Coming up, dining in are taking out restaurants are leaning into different strategies to lure customers back in. Who's going high end and who's searching for value. That's next. And do not forget, grab your tickets for the next Fast Money Live. That's December 11th. Scan the QR code on your screen. Head to CNBC events.com fast money. We are trading the holidays. Fast Money is back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Restaurant spending ticked up slightly in August. But with consumers still under pressure, restaurant CEOs are forced to make a choice, double down on value or go all in on premium. Kate Rogers.

Kate Rogers (44:02)

More on this Kate Hey, Melissa. So restaurant spending, as you said, ticked up slightly in August, up 3.7%. That's according to data from bank of America. But strategies amongst major brands are proving to vary. I chatted by with several executives this week across coffee, fast casual and casual dining who seem to either take the deep discounting value path or the premium path. Rob Lynch, Shake Shack CEO, talked with me about the company's new French onion soup menu, saying they have about 18 months of limited time offers lined up, many premium offerings that guests can opt into if they choose. But they're also offering some deals in the Shack app. John Payton, Dine brand CEO, said the company is seeing value get people in the door, but the they're buying less off of the map the value menu rather than they were before. And then Brian Niccol told me that Starbucks is a premium experience and he believes it's correctly priced in this environment. Take a listen to both of those executives.

Dan Ives (44:55)

Our value offerings are clearly driving traffic into the restaurants, but the guests are exploring the full menu once once they're there. I do believe we are a premium.

Bluehost Advertiser / Sempra Advertiser (45:04)

Brand and I do believe you get.

Steve Kovach (45:06)

A premium experience with the Green apron service model.

Kate Rogers (45:11)

Now Nickel also said they've removed a lot of discounting from the menu because it wasn't effective for that company. And Melissa, this comes of course as McDonald's once again leaning even further into value with those combo meals, that'll be about 15% less for people if they were to buy them off the combo meal menu versus what they'd pay individually for those items. Back over to you.

Melissa Lee (45:30)

I can't imagine what the margins are in French onion soup. I mean they've got to be huge. I mean a bag of onions cost how much? Nothing.

Kate Rogers (45:37)

Well, the burger to remember, it's about 1099.

Melissa Lee (45:41)

Right.

Kate Rogers (45:41)

It's another premium option for people that they can opt into. But he's saying, you know, it helps get people in the door. They can opt in, but they don't have to buy it if they come to Shake Shack.

Melissa Lee (45:50)

French onion menu. Kate. Thanks. Kate Rogers. What? You're a Starbucks shareholder.

Dan Ives (45:56)

It's a premium brand, definitely. And I think they, they're doing a nice job of making people feel like they're are appreciated and there's a customer service element. I think it's all great. I worry a little bit about the competitive landscape and the margin profile and you know, same store sales, you know, us have been have been difficult. Chipotle really looks like a dangerous stock to own here and it looks like there's been such a great growth story and a higher multiple. It's been paid. Clearly that's not terrible.

Melissa Lee (46:24)

Chart up next, final trades, final trade time.

Dan Ives (46:37)

Tim that was close. I for a sample scam. We don't have a lot of time. Disney. Let's do that.

Melissa Lee (46:42)

Karen.

Karen Feiderman (46:43)

Yes, after a very big run, put on some Google collars today. I'm in agreement with Carter on that one.

Carter Braxton Worth (46:50)

Carter Braxton Worth Sunoco products containers and packaging making a turn air to bowl.

Melissa Lee (46:55)

Sunoco along with Monroe Muffler educational show tonight. Thanks for watching Fast. See you back here on Monday. Mad Money Jim Cramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another meet. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer the World Runs.

Bluehost Advertiser / Sempra Advertiser (47:50)

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