CNBC "Fast Money" Podcast Summary

Episode: Apple’s Record High… And Netflix Results On Deck
Date: October 20, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, the Fast Money team breaks down Apple’s return to record highs, analyzes the drivers behind iPhone 17’s surging demand, previews critical upcoming tech earnings (particularly Netflix), and explores the aftershocks of a widespread Amazon Web Services (AWS) outage. The roundtable also dissects ongoing concerns in regional banks, a striking rally in gold and miners, and the renewed boom in Japanese equities. The tone is energetic and sharp, with the hosts blending actionable market insight with a signature spirit of repartee.

Main Topics & Key Insights

1. Apple’s Soaring to a New Record High

Segment Start: 01:02

Key Points:

• Apple closed at a new all-time high, valued near $4 trillion, its first since Dec 26, 2024.
• iPhone 17 cycle is outperforming expectations, especially in China.
  • Base model is subsidized by the Chinese government, boosting sales.
  • “iPhone 17 blows past all expectations.” — Financial Times, cited by Steve Kovach [02:10]
  • iPhone 17 is outselling 16 by double digit % in China (Bloomberg, via Kovach)
• Longer lead times and high hardware demand are driving optimism.
• Street upgrades: Loop Capital, Evercore ISI cite hardware momentum, setting high expectations for December quarter guidance.
• Contrast to iPhone 16 cycle, where "AI and software did not drive interest" — now hardware innovation is taking the lead.

Notable Quotes:

• “New hardware and designs are much better features and more enticing to drive demand than AI and software like we saw last year. That was a big miss for Apple in the iPhone 16 cycle.”
  — Steve Kovach [03:28]

• “Year over year [China iPhone sales] up by 14%, which is a good thing.”
  — Guy Adami [04:44]

Panel Reactions:

• Guy Adami: Emphasizes the “valuation problem,” as Apple trades at ~33x next year’s earnings but admits China’s surprise iPhone 17 sales are significant. [04:44]

• Tim Seymour:

  • Apple now holds steady with the S&P 500 after several years, despite not being an innovator in AI.
  • Hardware remains a crucial driver.
  • “If you told me Apple was flat to the S&P… that’s a great place to be.” [05:18]

• Dan Nathan:

  • Notes this was not a growth story, but Apple now “has the opportunity to break out.”
  • Sees China stimulus as pivotal, thinks Apple can capture more services growth in 2026.
  • “Sentiment is not great on the street right now.” [07:54]

• Mike Coe:

  • Highlights meaningful iPhone 17 improvements, especially for video creators.
  • Acknowledges Apple’s premium valuation, but says options are “pretty cheap right now.” [09:02]

Ticker Talk:

• Median analyst price target $253; Apple trades above at $262. Upgrade wave expected.
• Analysts less bullish on Apple (only ~60% “Buy” vs. 85-95% for other MegaCaps).

2. Tech Earnings in Focus: Are Expectations Too High?

Segment Start: 11:03

Highlights:

• Stuart Kaiser (Citi):

  • Earnings now matter more than the Fed; the market expects at least two cuts, so uncertainty shifts back to companies’ results. [11:03]
  • High valuation and “high bar” for Mag 7 stocks, but not quite “priced to perfection.”
  • Upside risk remains if events (Fed, Russia-Ukraine, government shutdown, China trade tensions) resolve positively.

• Capex remains high; back half of next week will be filled with key catalysts (Nvidia GTC, FOMC outcomes, tariff headlines).

• Positioning has recently turned a bit bearish, making market rebounds possible if results come in strong.

3. Regional Banks: Relief for Now, But Hidden Risks?

Zions Bancorp Segment Start: 22:09

Key Points:

• Zion’s beats expectations despite a $50M fraud loss.
  • Revenue and deposits solid; net charge-offs worse, but due to a single event.
• Market waits for more disclosure on exposure to “NDFA” (Non-Depository Financial Institutions)—loans where risk is harder to gauge.
• Discussion over whether recent issues in regional banks are idiosyncratic or signal broader, systemic risks.
  • “I guarantee you there are CFOs all over the country looking at what’s on the balance sheet.” — Guy Adami [25:18]
• Valuation debate: stock at 1.3x tangible book; is a re-rating possible, or are they getting expensive?
• KRE (regional bank ETF) continues to lag big banks and the broader financial sector.

4. Gold & Gold Miners: Finally Catching Fire

Segment Start: 16:55

Key Points:

• Gold miners are outperforming alongside gold, which has hit new highs.
  • Miners like Newmont get $180 PTs.
• Traditionally miners lag commodity; now margins are widening since energy/input costs are not rising with gold.
  • “Upside out-of-the-money call options… trade at a price premium… You can buy some call spreads.” — Mike Coe [18:00]
• Some panelists see the run as part of a greater shift into commodities and even industrial metals like copper.
• No sign of a bubble in gold, per the desk.

5. Amazon Web Services Outage: Impact and Market Implications

Segment Start: 28:34

Key Points:

• AWS suffered a major outage, impacting thousands of sites (Coinbase, Robinhood, etc.), but Amazon stock shrugged it off (+2%).
• AWS’s core data center in Northern Virginia has had several outages over five years.
• Comes at a time when Amazon is fighting for cloud leadership; capex possibly at inflection.
• “OpenAI now building its own data centers following Amazon’s original playbook.” — McKenzie Segalos [29:41]
• Mike Coe:
  • Technicals indicate a bounce at $150 support; Amazon looks “cheap relative to the market and its own history.”
  • Suggests owning risk-defined call spreads into earnings. [30:22]
• Underperformance versus Microsoft, Google, Oracle noted.

6. Netflix Earnings Preview & the Future of Streaming

Segment Start: 34:53

Guest: Tom Rogers (Versant Media, CNBC Co-Founder)

Key Points:

• Netflix had record engagement with massive hits like "K Pop Demon Hunters" (500M+ views).
  • “Their engagement with the biggest movie they’ve ever had… was a true engagement feat.” — Tom Rogers [34:59]
• Unmatched in pricing power, content budget, global scale, and ad revenue growth — “remain the kings” of long-form streaming.
• But short-form video (YouTube) is gaining TV share; AI-generated video is an emerging challenge to Netflix’s dominance.
• Netflix’s huge viewing hours come from licensed library content — if M&A among media companies restricts that flow, risk could rise.
• “I don’t believe Netflix is going to allow itself to become legacy media… but we haven’t seen anything yet by way of a strategy and that’s something to keep an eye on.” — Tom Rogers [36:44]

Analyst Views:

• Guy Adami: Focus is now on operating profit, not subs. Thinks Netflix is still a buy.
• Tim Seymour: Expects stock needs >17% growth headline to move up; risk to the downside if missed.

7. San Francisco’s Comeback: Venture Capital, Real Estate & Crime

Segment Start: 41:08

Key Points:

• Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff backs off calls for National Guard after local backlash.
• San Francisco VC investment on pace to break records ($115B so far in 2025).
• Tech companies now leasing more space; apartment rents up 6%.
• Crime: homicides/vehicle break-ins at generational lows, though issues remain with homelessness and drugs.
• Panelists generally agree the city’s bounce is real, driven by AI and innovation funding.

8. Japan: Nikkei Hits New Highs

Segment Start: 44:42

Key Points:

• Nikkei up 23% YTD; Japanese governance and mega-cap technology drive performance.
• Weak yen helps assets; not derailed yet.
• Tim Seymour and Guy Adami remain overweight Japan—highlighting Toyota (TM) and Mitsubishi UFJ among key picks.

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:28 | S. Kovach | "New hardware and designs are much better features and more enticing to drive demand than AI and software..." | | 07:54 | D. Nathan | "Sentiment is not great on the street right now relative to this name." | | 09:02 | M. Coe | "Options... are pretty cheap. Call spreads, if you want to sort of press along here..." | | 11:03 | S. Kaiser | "The market is treating [tech earnings] as a big event. It's not just earnings ... you have Nvidia GTC, tariffs..."| | 16:56 | E. Adami | "They [gold miners] finally are now much like Apple." | | 18:00 | M. Coe | "A bubble in gold? I think it's expressing a lot of fear about debasement..." | | 29:41 | M. Segalos | "OpenAI now building its own data centers following Amazon's original playbook..." | | 34:59 | T. Rogers | "Their engagement with the biggest movie they’ve ever had...was a true engagement feat." | | 36:44 | T. Rogers | "I don’t believe Netflix is going to allow itself to become legacy media... but we haven’t seen anything yet..." | | 41:08 | K. Rogers | "There's much room for improvement... but you can't deny a real shift on the ground here so far." | | 44:42 | T. Seymour | "It's been a great run for Japan for three reasons: governance is better, multiples are attractive, and..." |

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 01:02 — Apple’s Record High/iPhone 17 Analysis
• 11:03 — Tech Earnings vs. Fed Impact
• 22:09 — Zions Bancorp/Regional Banks
• 16:55 & 17:17 — Gold/Miners
• 28:34 — Amazon Web Services Outage & AWS Stock
• 34:53 — Netflix Earnings Preview with Tom Rogers
• 41:08 — San Francisco Tech/Civic Update
• 44:42 — Japan’s Market Rally
• 46:00 — Final Trades

Final Trades

| Panelist | Pick | Rationale | |------------|:--------------:|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | Mike Coe | Zillow | Sell strangles (options expensive, midpoint of 52Wk range) | | Tim Seymour| Mitsubishi UFJ | Stays long on Japanese banks; still bullish | | Dan Nathan | Adobe (avoid) | Cautious, beaten up software name not a buy yet | | Guy Adami | Salesforce CRM | Still a believer, expects strong performance |

Conclusion

This episode delivers immediate market takeaways:

• Apple’s hardware cycle is revitalizing its stock—watch for more upside into earnings, but valuation risk remains.
• The market’s high expectations hinge on a handful of MegaCap stocks—earning season is the swing factor.
• Gold and miners are finally in gear.
• Regional banks' troubles appear contained for now but require vigilance.
• Netflix is king in long-form streaming but faces looming competitive risks from YouTube and AI.
• Japan is a global outperformance story, helped by both governance and currency trends.
• San Francisco’s tech resurgence and real-world improvement reflect how swiftly sentiment and fortunes can change in global markets.

The panel’s trademark blend of rigorous analysis and unscripted candor makes this a valuable listen for investors seeking actionable insights.

For full discussion and actionable trade ideas, listeners are encouraged to replay the segments highlighted above.