← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Apple’s Record High… And Netflix Results On Deck 10/20/25
00:43:43
Apple shares hitting a fresh record high, as the tech giant rides on bullishness from Wall Street, as well as strong demand for its latest iPhone. How the surge is helping fuel the broader market rally, and if the climb can continue. Plus, earnings season is underway, and all eyes are on Netflix results tomorrow. What to expect from the streaming giant’s quarter, and where one media mogul sees the space heading next. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Live on the NASDAQ market site right here in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money on your show tonight. Call it the other big Apple. Apple popping, closing back on them being worth $4 trillion. But why? We've seen stranger things. Netflix also popping ahead of earnings. Industry bet Tom Rogers giving you his take on what Netflix is doing right right now. Plus all the details on one big regional bank's earnings. Gold keeps getting its groove on. And investors saying Aragato goes on us. A big thank you Japan's Nikkei Powers for more record highs. Hi everybody, I am Brian in for Melissa. Coming to you live from the studio B at the nasdaq. On your desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Gaia Adami and Mike Coe. Good to see you all everybody. All right. There is a ton to do on this Monday but let's start with Apple soaring, setting a new all time high today. IPhone 17 demand proving stronger than some thought. And Wall street responding. Loop capital upgrading the stock saying a long awaited upgrade cycle looks like it's finally coming to fruition. And that is not all. Evercore ISI also adding Apple to its tactical outperformance form list. Apple valued again at nearly $4 trillion. For more on the story, let's bring in Steve Kobach to figure out exactly what the fundamental strength may be coming from. Steve. Yeah, Brian. And that all time high at the close today, that is the first time Apple hit an all time high since the day after Christmas last year. So look, the surge of optimism from analysts in the press today. You mentioned some of them. Evercore adding Apple to that tactical outperform list. New capital c saying the iPhone 17 quote blows past all expectations. Financial times headline best iPhone cycle since COVID and Bloomberg saying the iPhone 17 is outselling the 16 by double digit percentage points in China, the second most important market outside the United States and driving all that action. Well, let's talk about that base model, the entry level iPhone 17. That is a hot item out there in China in part because the government is subsidizing it and basically giving customers a discount. On top of that, last week the iPhone air went on sale after a delay of few weeks that is already selling out and showing that one is very popular in China. And then overall you have the lead times for orders generally longer than they were a year ago, showing demand is higher. Now we're getting earnings From Apple in 10 days from today Evercore saying the guidance for the December quarter could surprise to the upside because of all this momentum behind the new iPhones. And overall, the picture that we're seeing seeing here, Brian, is new hardware and designs are much better features and more enticing to drive demand than AI and software like we saw last year. That was a big miss for Apple in the iPhone 16 cycle, Brian. Yeah, it's really been a strong cycle so far. A lot of positive commentary coming from the street. Steve Kovach, thank you very much. All right. Guy Adami. I mean Apple, we were talking on this program a couple months ago. Apple's having a tough year. Why isn't it kind of riding with the other Mag7 and Big Tech boom, new record high for Apple.
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D
Couple of things.
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E
Welcome.
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B
Thank you.
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E
Did you read. Was that in the prompter? That, that. Thank you. That you read or just.
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B
I wrote that.
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E
You wrote yourself?
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F
Yeah, on the fly.
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B
On the fly, yeah.
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F
Sudden.
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B
Welcome to Japanese Roboto. Used to work for Mitsubishi.
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E
Mr. Roboto, I believe so. Number three, Tim Seymour has been all over this now for quite some time. You know he is. He's pointed out that there are a number of reasons to dislike Apple, but there are more reasons to like it and that a lot of what's happening now was not priced in. He's spot on. Now the problem I've had incorrectly is valuation and it's still a valuation problem at close to 33 times next year's numbers. But the iPhone sales in China surprised people, clearly. I think year over year up by 14%, which is a good thing. Earnings are coming up, obviously, but you have to sort of wrap your head around valuation. I think lou put a $350 price target on the tape that we're having. That's not Inconceivable to see but you're paying up here in my opinion.
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F
It's interesting because the thank you for the kind words guy but you know, I mean look, it's not as if I've been screaming the bull. My view has been glass half full because I do think if you told me that Apple given the three year run we've had, the three year bull market that we've had since October of 22 that Apple's flat to the S and P held serve in an environment where they've had nothing, they've had no AI, they've had no innovation. I'd say this is a great place to be for the stock. That's my bold thesis and I think you know the fact that they also announced their, their M5 chip on Friday which certainly helps in some of their products. It's four times the processing power gets them in an AI space. The fact that Steve pointed out hardware really can be something that's still a driver even if it doesn't change. I think if he's giving me the stiff arm.
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B
No, no, if Tim.
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F
Hold on.
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B
What a backup. He said something important as you always do. If Tim Cook was sitting here right now and by the way he's welcome anytime.
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F
No, he's a big fan of the show.
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B
He would back on your lack of innovation comment because he say M5 chip thinner, better camera, better battery life. That's how he would push back. And, and I wonder if our consumers pushing back with this increased upgrade cycle.
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F
Well, push, push back as in saying push back on the bears are wrong. It's clear and it's at least clear or there's there's some type of a snag in the production, in essentially the product manufacturing cycle which I don't think is what it is. I believe Apple is which is flat on the year and at this point also people are looking for rotation. Some of this to me is part of everyone's going tactical today. I'll go tactical on this one too. Even though I would be fundamentally a long term owner of Apple and have been. I do think you have a case where people are under positioned in Apple. You know an Amazon which is down small near and Apple which is flat on the year. Investors are looking for these, these stories.
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G
Well it's interesting in a market like this you're starting to look for stuff that might have the opportunity to break out, that might have the opportunity to play catch up. Tim just said this that versus the S&P 500 has been FL for the last three years or so. I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that both of what these guys have said it wasn't a growth story but it was trading at a growth multiple. You know, it wasn't an innovator in AI and a lot of those companies that had been were getting a multiple for that. So now you get to a point where you see some hardware cycle. Finally you talk about, I think Kovac just said this, the fastest upgrade cycle since COVID Well a lot of these phones are on that third, fourth year. Sooner or later you just have to upgrade. But the more important piece to me is that China growth, right? If you think that we're coming out of of what's going to be a tentious contentious period with China and we're going to have a kick the can down the road situation with our trade and you see the Chinese stimulating or subsidizing iPhones, that's certainly saying something to me. So you know, at the end of the day, if Apple can kind of bridge this gap between they get this Siri, this new setup as it relates to Apple intelligence then they are well set up, you know what I mean, to kind of take market share. And the whole point about the multiple, if you can continue with pushing that hardware out which doesn't have the multiple but you get Apple intelligence and then you start seeing services growth on top of that. That's how the story I think really starts to work in 2026. Last thing looking at my facts set of the top 10x Tesla in the Mega cap, this is the only one that has about 60% of the analysts rate the stock a buy. Everyone else has about 85, 90, 95. So sentiment is not great on the street right now relative to this name.
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B
$253 I think median price target. Although analysts are kind of all over the board. Mike Co, you look at stocks but you also look at options. You kind of look at the idea of this market structure. Stocks tend to go up because there's more buying pressure than selling pressure. A lot of good fundamental reasons why Apple rising right now. But what are you seeing on the structure side? Anything? Are you surprised by Apple's strength?
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C
Well, I kind of with Tim on this and Dan too in the sense that you know there, there is sort of this, there was this lag and now there is a perception that the iPhone 17 actually has some meaningful improvements. Gives people a reason for that upgrade. And you know you referenced that camera. It's not just the camera, it's the software Inside. That also makes a big difference for people who use it for photography and more importantly for videography. They got Prores raw in there now, which is sort of important for anybody who uses uses this for video. The valuation question, I think it still remains 32 and a half times forward. So it's trading at a premium to the S and P with S and P like levels of top and bottom line growth. But really I think the important thing to think about is whether or not they're going to start grabbing some market share. And that's what Dan was talking about with China. And the good news is for people who are interested in options, they're actually pretty cheap right here. Right now the options market's implying a move of about 3.9% when they report on the 30th. And just looking ahead 30, 60 days, the options again are cheap. So I think call spreads, if you want to sort of press along here, would be a way to do it if you're a little bit nervous about the valuation, which I remain.
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B
Yeah. And Tim, the one thing I would say is that as I referenced the median price target of analysts, 253. I'm not a math whiz guy. Domi stocks at 262, we're $9 above that average analyst price target. Do you care about that?
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F
It usually means upgrades are coming. I mean, they're lagging. And that's what's been going on here at the street also. I mean, they're not the only ones. Jefferies had a note out, JP Morgan had a note out. Everybody had a note out talking about demand. It sounds like an analyst community that's looking for the next great one, no doubt.
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E
But again, mid single digits revenue growth, maybe high single digits earnings growth. Company trading now 33 times next year's numbers. You're paying up.
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B
Meantime, one of Citigroup's top strategist says he is not looking to be some kind of hero ahead of all the big tech earnings which he says matter more than the Federal Reserve matters right now. Stuart Kaiser is the Firm's head of U.S. equity trading strategy and joins us now on set. Good to see you again, Stuart. Thank you. Good to be here. Why are earnings more important than the Federal Reserve?
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D
It's a good question. If he asked me a month ago going into the FOMC blind, would that be a smaller, bigger event than earnings? I would have said bigger, but you know, the market seems pretty content right now that given the data that's coming in, the Fed's going to Cut twice into the end of the year kind of takes that off the table a little bit in terms of a source of uncertainty. And you know, to all of your point, I mean valuation is very high. Mag 7 told it in. There's a relatively high bar going into these earnings and I think the market is treating that as a big event. You also remember it's not just earnings, right? You have Nvidia gtc, you have some tariff headlines coming up, you have the follow through from the fomc. So pretty much the back half of next week is just kind of a string of really important catalysts.
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B
How high is the bar for earnings? If we sit here and we say, oh, Netflix beat by X and Nvidia beat by Y and whatever, is it going to have to be better than that? Are these numbers priced to perfection?
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D
I mean, I think you're getting pretty close to that, but I wouldn't say price to perfection. I think, you know, the market is, is setting a high number. The Capex numbers are quite high obviously as well, but I don't think it's, it doesn't feel as aggressive as it has been at other times during the past couple of years. I'm being honest with you Stuart.
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F
I saw your notes on regional bank credit and help me understand, is the market sniffing something out because you said, you know, these issues have been out there at the same time, most of us here on this desk have wanted to point out as this being idiosyncratic. No one wants to really say there's a credit issue in the room.
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D
Look, I think that that's really the trick right now is they do all seem idiosyncratic, but they all happened within about a 10 day period and the market is trying to, I think the market's getting a little uncomfortable with the kind of concentration of those. To your point, I mean, hedging in high yield credit has been one of the biggest hedging flows we've seen over the last three to six months. So macro folks have not been totally, you know, sort of ignorant to this potential risk and I think that's, you know, decreased the impact. And then secondly, to your point, if I think what happened over the weekend probably is people had time to go through these piece by piece and I think the reaction you're seeing Monday suggests that the deeper dive work they did over the weekend suggested it is probably idiosyncratic. But look, nobody wants to be here six months from now kind of saying, man, how the heck did we miss those hides? You know, a few months back I.
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E
Think it's idiosyncratic in terms of its impact on the market. I think it may be systemic though in the terms of everybody's probably doing it. So I know that's somewhat nuanced, but KRE is trading like there's a problem.
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D
Yeah. I mean, I think to your point, is this just, you know, evidence of broader, let's say lighter underwriting standards and things of that nature? That's possible, but that's not really, to me, a credit event risk. Right. That's something that's going to be a drag over an extended period of time. But you can't ignore it. I would say even folks that believe that what they've said to us is I'd be much more concerned if this was consumer credit related as opposed to on the industrial side. So, yes, that is, if you're extrapolating this out, it's. Is this sort of a, a bigger issue kind of across the lending spectrum.
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B
All right, let's talk about how to maybe make some money. Last question. You say you got to go high quality stocks, but also AI power generation companies. I love talking about energy, I love talking about electricity. But even I have to say, and look at some of these companies and say, where's the earnings growth to that magnitude going to be? There's no doubt they have a great story to tell, but the market's really loving these companies.
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D
Yeah, I mean we've, we've, we like Power Jet at the beginning of the year obviously got kicked in the face. Well, it was until the end of January when that deep sea headline came out. We kind of got hurt there. But look, we do believe that, you know, I, yes, but also just bigger picture kind of grid issues in the U.S. you know, kind of make this a really attractive, you know, attractive part of the market tone. Also, if you look at data center construction, the power part is a relatively small part of the total cost. And if you're a meta a Google and you view this as existential, that you need the power to get the chips to build the moat, then you're willing to kind of overpay a little bit upfront for that power. And we do see some legs here in that trade still.
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B
Stuart Kaiser, really appreciate your views and thanks for coming on set. Thank you. Thank you very much. Dan, got a comment on that?
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G
Yeah, I think the expectation part is a big one. And really to me, the only thing that's going to move the needle here is in that top 10 names. Right. If you think about Microsoft, you think about Metta you think even about Nvidia, none of them have confirmed the new highs in the s and P500 over the last couple of weeks or so and Microsoft and met are about 10% off them. So I'd say the expectations aren't actually that high for many of these names and so it really would take a hiccup there. The other thing I'll just say about the broad market is you know you just mentioned the Fed. The Fed's going to be cutting into something right here where all of these companies we talked about credit. I mean they all want to take out lots of credit to build out these data centers and that could really fuel another leg of this sort of rally. And so if we have let's say some resolution, Russia, Ukraine, let's say we have the shutdown reopen. Let's say we have the China trade thing come to pass. I mean this is going to be an S and P that's up over 20% in the not so distant future. So the risks actually seem to the upside right here. I'm not telling you I'm bullish on the market right here but that's the way it kind of well I mean I can just see this all plan out.
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F
Nice one John. Right here. Dan took a happy pill. So I mean but I feel as if position is positioning actually is not as bullish and there's notes out there from from technical strategists that are pointing out actually positioning by the end of last week got kind of bearish. Sentiment can quickly reverse in other words from overbought to just not overbought, not necessarily oversold. So I kind of feel that that's where we sit. There's no question. Yes there's 10 stocks that are really going to drive the earnings in aggregate even though 85% or whatever of the S and P have beat so far. Earnings season has been fine. Resilience seems to be the word. I think it probably will be.
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B
You do wonder not to take anything away from this amazing show or this amazing networks coverage but is any earnings going to matter except for maybe 10.
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F
Stocks is now I just said maybe.
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E
Listen maybe we call this a follow.
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B
Up point that was obnoxious. I am sorry that was really and let me Dan's the happy one then.
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F
I what's going on Brian MC this charity event on Thursday night and time a great job. Nobody better than Brian Sullivan at that.
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B
Thank you Now I love you Stranger things they call it the Upside down. All right meantime can't stop won't stop Gold keeps going higher. Gold miners too, with many miners rising again today. Guy, you've been highlighting gold miners for a long time saying they haven't followed up with gold as much as they should have. They seem like they finally are now much like Apple.
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E
It's not just me. You know, Tim's been on this for a while as well. And I will say I think historically people don't want to foray into the gold mining stocks because typically a move higher and the underlying metal is a blip and they been faked out so many times. This time though, clearly something else is going on. And finally the miners are participating. They've up huge. I think somebody just put $180 price target on Newmont Mining. It's not going to be a straight line from here. But you cannot run too far away from the mining stocks because this gold rally is still intact.
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B
Mike Cohen, sound like a weird question, but it was brought up by Jones Trading and one of their must read morning notes this morning. Is it possible there's a bubble in gold?
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C
A bubble in gold? I mean, I think it's expressing a lot of fear about debasement. I think that's how we sort of take a look at both what's going on in equities and what's going on in gold. You know the other thing I would say though is that we, when we're looking at the miners is that the spread, usually what happens when you have increases in commodity prices like gold, there are a lot of other sort of input costs for mining which are also rising. But that's not going on here. Energy prices are actually going down, which means that the margins for these miners are actually widening. And I would add one other thing which is that this is sort of a wonky options thing. But generally speaking, when you deal with commodities, the upside out of the money call options, this is something I know you know very well. Brian will typically trade at a price premium actually to the, at the money options. And this means you can take advantage of what we're calling skew here and potentially buy some call spreads. And I think miners is the place that you want to continue to make that play because relative to gold prices they remain cheap.
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F
Yeah, miners two to one beta to gold. Over the last year, after not doing that for a long time on down days, we see that miners underperformed by probably 3 to 1. And I think you have to be aware of that given where we've come from. I think the trade is more broadly into PGMs, whether it's platinum. Whether it's platinum, they've run as much. But I think they have more room to go in terms of this asset class trade that seems to be going on for gold. And I believe copper, I believe copper is underappreciated in terms of the supply demand dynamics, certainly the supply side, but the demand that we now call, you know, getting the grid going in the west, even if China is less of a buyer. And I just think that some of these names in the mining space, whether you are Freeport, who has gold exposure, is mostly a copper play. I think they're the next ones in line. They're not going to have a gold miners type move if you don't get that kind of a move in copper. But I think you follow this trade out into some industrial metals.
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B
All right, good stuff there, guys. We're going to change gears on deck after the break. More details on that big Amazon web outage that hit earlier. What we know and what we still don't. But before that, what the move in one big regional bank may be telling us about the markets, both stock and credit markets.
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All right, welcome back.
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B
Zions Bancorp shares popping right now. The regional bank reporting its earnings and apparently easing some concerns about credit quality on its balance sheet. The conference call starts in about 10 minutes. So that means we've got CNBC's Houston for a few minutes ahead of that as well. The stocks up 3.3%. Hugh, how did the sort of the raw numbers come in for Zion? Hey, Brian. So the numbers came in fine even when including that $50 million loss tied to that alleged fraud that rocked the market last week, EPS was $1.48 per share, though it's a little unclear how that compares to the $41 estimate. Revenue of $861 million beat expectations for 843.1 million metrics including deposits. Net interest income also coming in at or above expectations. Net charge offs were however worse than expected at 56 million, although that's almost entirely because of that loss that was disclosed last week tied to the Cantor Group. You could say there's been a bit of a relief that there wasn't anything new disclosed in terms of bad loans. But analysts will still want to hear much more from management about their activities in the NDFI market. That's loans they made to non depository financial institutions. Just how big is this book of loans? What are the main categories and are they comfortable with the underwriting in them? We'll be listening to the call starting in a few minutes. All right, so ndf, we learn any day. Guy Adami, you can learn something new. Non depository financial institutions. Hugh, what does that mean? Why are we watching that? Yeah, this is the whole universe of loans made to mortgage companies, subprime auto, private equity insurance companies that grew after the 2008 financial crisis. So when they said that hey you banks, you can't make these loans anymore, banks decided to actually make lend to ND files which are the firms that popped up in that absence. So it's an ecosystem of non bank lenders of which is pretty large. It's actually the largest category of loans loan growth in the last 12 or 13 years. Brian. Hugh sun, we'll let you get on that call, Hugh. Thank you very much. Tim Seymour, what are you watching?
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F
Well, I think that the credit outlook and disclosure was stable at least relative to what they'd given prior. And that's that's what you wanted to hear. And I do think that the outlook over 26, one of the other things we've heard is that there actually is a slightly improved growth outlook, especially on the lending side. Now, maybe in a world where we're concerned about credit on the regional industrial basis, you'd like to see them reel it in a little bit. There's nothing that we're hearing here that is validating a call that there is a runaway credit problem.
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E
I agree with that. But what are you willing to pay above tangible books? So tens. I'll round up for them $39. So at current prices, the stocks trading 1.3 times times tangible book, is it worth one and a half times that gets you to a $60 stock? I mean, are we rerating these banks? Are we saying, you know what, they're starting to get a little expensive? Jamie Dimon pointed out that his bank at 3 times tangible book was expensive a week or so ago.
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B
Do we. I mean, we're watching Zion's a big company. Okay. But it's not JP Morgan, it's not Goldman Sachs.
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D
Okay?
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B
This is a big regional bank. Do you, Dan, or do you. Do you guys worry that there are. Is that. What was the term of the week last week? Cockroaches under the balance sheet hood here?
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E
I think you have to worry. That's why I asked the question to Stuart don't be a hero Kaiser earlier. If it was systemic in terms of everybody doing it. And I think you. I guarantee you there are CFOs all over the country looking at what's on the balance sheet. And yes, I think a lot of these people probably did similar things.
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F
Yeah. By the way, his name, his name is Stuart. But Billy, Don't Be a Hero is a song by Paper Lace, also by Bo Donaldson.
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G
By the way, I don't think Jamie Dimon was saying that relative to like anything outside of the regional. If anything he gets the opportunity when one of these banks goes under. Right. So I'm sure there is some bad lending practices that have gone on over the last few years. And I think something that Stuart said is also interesting that a lot of folks would be more worried if it was like consumer weakness across the board. I mean, these are the sorts of things that can be somewhat isolated and they're not particularly systemic.
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F
But let me, let me push back to regional banks really rerated here. I mean, they're kind of. They've done nothing year over year where money centers are the ones that I don't know.
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E
Yeah.
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B
I would argue. We not only have a great point.
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E
Tim makes, they've always does.
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B
They've not only not done anything all year, but we haven't talked about them all year. We haven't cared. We haven't talked so much about these banks since Silicon Valley Bank a few years ago.
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E
Actually, we spend a great deal of time talking about them on nights you don't host. I mean during the day perhaps.
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B
I have. I have a daytime job.
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E
I understand this, but we have pointed out over and over again the relative underperformance of the carry. If our crack staff can put up a comparison chart of the Kremlin and the BKX or the xlf, whatever you want, you will see that the KRE topped out I think two and a half or three years ago, whereas the larger banks are making new all time highs.
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B
All right, good discussion there. Zion's numbers pretty good. Wait and see what happens on the conference call. Stocks up 3.3%. Meantime, there's a lot more fast money. Here's what's up next. Internet out how the Amazon Web Services outage is impacting businesses around the world and the stocks that could benefit from its troubles. Plus, earnings season underway and investors are ready to binge on results from Netflix, what one media mogul is expecting to see when those numbers cross the wires tomorrow. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. The heaviest metal credit card of all time, rumored to be one of only 18 in existence, plated with the very.
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Same tungsten that forged the international space station.
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And wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move with the real power move having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments. FedEx, the new power move.
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Big gifts, big perks.
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That's why you rack.
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B
All right, welcome or welcome back. Amazon's Amazon Web Services attempting to recover from a widespread outage today that disrupted thousands of websites may have impacted your trading. It did not impact Amazon stock though, which closed nearly 2% higher today. CNBC's McKinsey Segalos has more on kind of what we know and kind of what we don't.
- [28:56]
A
Hey, Brian. So Amazon Web Services says that its cloud platform is showing continued recovery across US east regions with error reports trending down. That's after more than 11 million users flagged issues today, according to Down Detector, including hits to Coinbase, Robinhood and the popular AI search engine Perplexity. The epicenter of issues was Northern Virginia Data Center Cluster, the company's oldest and busiest cloud hub, a legacy region still used as the default for many popular apps. And when something breaks, their ripple effects move fast. Now, it's not the first time we've seen this. That same region has had multiple outages over the last five years. But it lands in a tricky moment just ahead of Amazon earnings, with investor focus on whether the company will boost its $118 billion capex plan to compete with Microsoft, Google, Meta and now OpenAI. AWB used to be the cloud king, but it's been losing deals to Azure and even Oracle and Google. At the margin, OpenAI now building its own data centers following Amazon's original playbook when it first built out AWS, rather than relying solely on IBM servers numbers. Brian.
- [30:04]
B
All right, McKinsey, Seagalas, Mack, thank you very much. Mike. Co. It's a really sort of interesting, compelling story. They did have another outage, I think it was last year, earlier this year. So it's not the first time. And obviously the stock doesn't take much of a hit. Is there a trading story to this?
- [30:22]
C
Well, yeah, I mean, I think there's a couple of things going on. First of all, it's a non trivial exercise for users of us to pivot to another technology stack like Azure or Oracle or the like. So, you know, as long as they sort of make assurances, I think that they're working on whatever the problem is. Now that it's happened twice, I would assume that some customers are a little bit concerned about that. You know, on a valuation basis the company does look like, I mean, it's cheap relative to the market and it's cheap relative to its own history. There are people on the desk who are better, you know, able to speak to the technicals than I am. It seems like we're at a fairly critical juncture on that basis. So we're bouncing right along the 150 ahead of earnings. So, you know, from my perspective, I'd probably play this one going into earnings from the long side, but using call spreads to define that risk just because of that sort of critical level where we are, it's been underperforming the market as you can see from the chart there over the course of the last several weeks.
- [31:19]
F
Yeah, underperforming is the right term, Mike. And I think that's part of what's going on here and it's part of probably why the reaction. I mean it's almost as if people had already jumped out of this one well before a headline like this, even if this isn't fundamental to the say set up into earnings. But I do think it's interesting. I do think NWC is why are they underperforming all the other hyperscalers in a backdrop where this is built around where AI is going to drive more growth? Certainly in terms of us, why wouldn't this be a driver to us which has been stagnant relative to itself? Right. With us you're used to growth rates that have really been why it's all the valuation for the company. I kind of like Amazon here. I kind of like it. You know, we're having the Amazon Apple conversation. This is, this is one of the ones that I think has not been treated as fairly as the rest of the market.
- [32:05]
G
Yeah, you know, it's interesting what you say about growth rates at. Yes. I mean they've come down to a hole. I think about a year ago they were like low teens or something like that. And so they have about 30% market share in the US of cloud infrastructure. I think what's different about these guys is kind of who they serve A and B, what sort of models that they are associated with. So I think that's a big part of it. I think there's a lot of legacy companies that are on us and I think Google Cloud is powering some different stuff and Gemini is a big part of that. And the same thing with Microsoft Azure as you think about the relationship with OpenAI. So they're just kind of different stories to me right now.
- [32:36]
E
Mike brought up the technicals. I mean 240 high. Ish. Back in February. We did it again in early September. Stopped dead at that prior high. We're in the two teens now. Ish. So on October 30th they report the sells off a couple more days into earnings. Actually the setup on the long side probably as good as the it's been in a while.
- [32:54]
B
All right, good conversation there around Amazon. Coming up, it's Netflix chill stock moving higher and media icon. You like that? Tom Rogers here with more on Netflix. What you can expect from earnings the company tomorrow. Welcome back to Fast Money. It was a huge Monday to begin your trading week. Stock stocks hopping, the Dow up more than 500 points. The S&P up 1%. But yes, big cap tech start again. The Nasdaq surging about 1 1/2 percent. Apple the big story today jumping nearly 4%. But it wasn't just tech on the radar. Cleveland Cliffs rocketing higher up more than 20%, closed up 21 and a half percent after the steelmaker said it is exploring expanding into rare earth mining. All you got to say is rare earths. The company also topping estimates in its earnings report this morning. Meantime, shares of Novo Nordisk higher company's president of U.S. operations telling CBC's Bertha Coombs they're in active discussions with the White House on Medicare and most favored nation pricing also happening, earnings starting to kick in. Media on the clock. Netflix earnings out tomorrow night. Shares soaring about 40% this year, up another 3% today. Netflix, of course, got some big hits on both the TV and the movie side. But in the global media market that is right now, Hollywood doing air quotes, you're only as good as your last hit. So let's get more on what to expect from Clay Grid, executive chair, CNBC co founder, Versant Media senior advisor and all around good guy Tom Rogers. Tom, I can't see how Netflix fires on more cylinders. Is there anything else they can do to make things even better? Because they they seem to be kind of running the media show right now.
- [34:53]
H
Well, Brian, as one analyst said in a Netflix note, congratulations on your engagement. Because their engagement with the biggest movie they've ever had over this last quarter, K Pop Demon Hunters, which my grandkids watch thousands of times, contributing to what was 500 million views on Netflix was a true engagement feat. And despite no Kings Day, they do remain the king of long form streaming. They've cracked the code on pricing like nobody else has. Their programming budget is enormous relative to competitors on streaming. They have international production, global subscale and an ad revenue business that's growing extremely well. Put all that together and they're going to remain the kings. They're not going to be dethroned in when it comes to long form streaming.
- [35:50]
B
Will short form video? Will I dethrone everybody?
- [35:57]
H
That was the right segue. I said long form streaming because that's their vulnerability. YouTube is actually growing their market share on the television faster than Netflix is in terms of total TV time. Netflix has about 13% of total TV time. Netflix a little under 9%, YouTube and growing much faster. But what's coming on the scene is AI generated video. The quality capability of These new video generation elements that AI provides, not only the script writing, the content creation, the post production, all capable of creating highly professional short form video. And YouTube has much better claim to incorporating that novel entry into the media market than Netflix does. And that I think is a competitive challenge. Now I don't believe Netflix is going to allow itself to become legacy media. They've been the disruptor and I got to believe they are so aware of this that they're going to avoid becoming the disruptee. But we haven't seen anything yet by way of a strategy and that's something to keep an eye on Godfather.
- [37:16]
F
So it does seem as if you've gotten a little bit more sanguine on Netflix. By the way, you've, you've nailed this one. Including the, the sanguine ness. If I may, my question for you. So more broadly, as we think about the threats from AI, we've already been dealing, you've been talking about the threat from to legacy TV for a long time. How do you see the current dynamic with private equity getting into the space? Do you think there is a bid for assets that a lot of people were calling, you know, calling for dead some of the parts dynamics. To me, the fascinating part of what's going on is not that Netflix isn't dominant. We know that. The question is are there other players out there ready to, they're not going to be legacy, but are or, you know, whether it's, you know, whether it's Paramount sky, whether it's some of the other players that seem to be trying to consolidate assets. What do you, what do you see in there?
- [38:07]
H
Well, that's a big question. And looking at it through a Netflix lens, I don't see Netflix participating in big M and A bids. I don't think they need to. Many thought that, you know, they were going to have to pursue a big acquisition to get where they got, but they're way ahead of the pack and I think they'll stay there. Where they could get disrupted through other people's M and A is their programming is such that the long tail of library programs, not the top 10 titles, which is really only about 7% of Netflix viewing, but about 70% of their viewing comes from the library of other media companies in large part. And they've done terrifically well in licensing that. Pretty cheap too because they do non exclusive deals for this content and they're able to really drive viewership off of it. But if other companies decided, let's say Warner, which is responsible for I think seven of the top 20 Netflix shows if Warner was acquired by Paramount and Paramount decided this is no longer in our strategic interest to license that kind of library product to Netflix, that would really put a crimp potentially in Netflix in a competitive way. Otherwise, I think Netflix rides above the M and A wave.
- [39:34]
B
Wow. And Tom, we appreciate it. We'll let you go. Say what you will, these are fascinating times, Tom Rogers. Really appreciate that guy. What are you looking for tomorrow night?
- [39:43]
E
Well, number one, I hope those grandchildren that he speaks weeks of realize that their grandfather is in fact a stud. They're young, but they're learning, number one. Number two, to Tim's point about being sanguine, Tom, was that back in June, correctly? So for the first time in all the years he's been watching and the stock has acted in kind. What I'm watching for, to answer your question specifically, since there are no more subs, it's operating profit, which has been growing now for the last four and a half or five years. I think you can buy Netflix here.
- [40:10]
F
I think looking for north of 17% growth on these numbers is what it's going to require to take this stock higher. I think the risk is to the downside.
- [40:17]
B
All right, coming up, Marc Benioff of Salesforce changing his tune on safety concerns in San Francisco. But that certainly has not impacted President Trump's take. The real read from the ground when we come back.
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F
December 11th.
- [40:34]
B
Join Melissa Lee on the team of traders in New York City for an all access celebration live and on air. Fast MONEY live trading the holidays. Get your tickets now@cnbc events.com fastmoney.
- [40:52]
C
All.
- [40:52]
B
Right, welcome back to Fast Money. This weekend, President Trump upping his threats to send the National Guard into San Francisco despite Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff publicly walking back some comments he made in support of that move last week. Kate Rogers here now with more. Kate.
- [41:08]
A
Hi, Brian. To Benioff reversing his stance after learning Powell Jobs penned an op ed against his comments. And longtime tech investor Ron Conway resigned from the Salesforce foundation board. And all of this comes at a time when, by many measures, the city is really in the midst of a comeback, much of which is being boosted by AI investments. Exclusive data from CBRE shows VC investing set to surpass its 2021 high of $276 billion this year. Now, the bullshit, the bulk of that investment has been in San Francisco and Silicon Valley, where 80% of venture funding has gone so far this year, totaling $115 billion. And that, of course, has led to a Boom in real estate. Tech companies increasing their share of leasing activity by square footage to 53% in 2025. That's the highest rate since 2019. Apartment rental prices surging as well, up 6%. Some other key factors here. Crime down 30% since last year. Homicides are at 70 year lows. Car break ins are at 22 year lows. Now, there's still much room for improvement on things like homelessness, of course, the fentanyl crisis. But you can't deny a real shift on the ground here so far. Back over to you, Brian.
- [42:13]
B
Well, I'll be there in just over a week's time, so I look forward to seeing it for myself. Rogers? Yeah, I'll see. I walked around the city two years ago, 10 hours and it was, it was grim. Dan. I know. I think you're going there tomorrow.
- [42:24]
G
I'm going to see Kate tomorrow.
- [42:25]
B
Fantastic.
- [42:26]
G
Listen, I think all the stats that she just gave, I mean, they're commensurate with all the boom that we're seeing. You know, folks have come back. This is an innovation hub once again. I know a lot of folks left went to Austin or wherever the heck they went. So you're seeing a better place. You're seeing a place that probably going to be a lot better in three, five years from now.
- [42:43]
C
Just say this.
- [42:43]
G
If a CEO like Marc Benioff, who doesn't even live in the town anymore, he thinks that that's going to be a hub of innovation because we have federalized troops on the ground. I just can't imagine that's the sort of leadership a town like San Francisco needs. So at the end of the day, maybe he wants to say, what do they say over there in Hawaii?
- [43:01]
D
Mahalo.
- [43:02]
G
Mahalo. And mahalo.
- [43:04]
B
Mahalo.
- [43:05]
A
That too.
- [43:06]
B
Apologies. I've been there. One time I grew up in California. We didn't go to Hawaii. We were in Hawaii.
- [43:10]
F
Aloha, Mr. Hand.
- [43:12]
E
Tim lived in Hawaii.
- [43:14]
D
Okay.
- [43:15]
E
Tended bar.
- [43:16]
B
Fair enough. Mike Coe, who actually lives out there, by the way. Come on. Power Lunch live from the San Francisco bureau in like a week and a half.
- [43:24]
C
Mike, I'll stop by and Actually, you know, that's one of the things I will point out is that, you know, for those of us that live very close to downtown San Francisco, there has been meaningful improvement of late. We, you know, Kate was just talking about the rental prices. We just had apartments in San Francisco essentially reach. I think they actually broached their pre pandemic highs. So there's definitely a turnaround. I mean, you can See it in the prices, you can see it in the statistics, but you could feel it. But with boots on the ground as well.
- [43:52]
B
Yeah, one would hope. It's a great American city, it's a great global city and it's a place that just one of the most beautiful places. Love it in America. All right, coming up, the land of the rising sun. Japan. Stocks behind it also running up as well. The Nikkei at new record highs. Are we still buying Japan? Are we still big in Japan? We'll talk about it next. All right, welcome back. Japanese stocks closing at more record highs. The company's Liberal Democratic Party reaching a deal to form a coalition government with the Japanese Restoration Party. That paves the way for Sane Takachi to potentially become Japan's first female prime Minister. The Nikkei to 25 in dollar terms now 23%, Tim. Outpacing gains on the S&P 500. Been a great run for Japan.
- [44:43]
F
It's been a great run for Japan for three reasons. One is just governance is better. There's been a lot of pressure on Japanese corporates over the last five years to improve payout levels. I think the multiples are very attractive. And Japanese Mega cap is part of this global trade. I mean there's at one point we thought about Japan as the first place to go for technology. Well, guess what, they are a major player in this part of world. We're overweight Japan and idevo. I continue to think Japanese equities are going to outperform at least the global stage.
- [45:11]
E
And I think you stay there agree weaker yen inflation. I don't say it's a problem yet, but it's clearly helping assets. So Tim's right. This is going to derail. But I don't think we're that close yet.
- [45:24]
B
Not yet, but we're still buying Japan. Tim is.
- [45:26]
E
Are you? Well, if you know again I asked you this question. You looked at me quizzically. Familiar with my tube, Brian? Yes, Guy. And that's your acronym for this year. And the TN tube is Toyota Motors, which has really done nothing but. But I think there might be a late run and comes out tm, Brian.
- [45:42]
B
Tm. All right. I love you too. That's great stuff, Guy. Dummy. Thank you.
- [45:46]
F
How can you not.
- [45:46]
B
Final trades. All right. Final trade time. Mike Co. Kick it off.
- [46:01]
C
Yeah. Zillow announces next week. It's at the midpoint of its 52 week range. I think off options are expensive. Sell strangles.
- [46:07]
B
Brian.
- [46:08]
F
Great having you bringing the energy every night. Mitsubishi ufg. That's easy for me to say, wow, Japanese banks stay there. I am long Japanese banks.
- [46:18]
B
All right, Dan, Guy is going to.
- [46:20]
G
Try to convince you maybe to buy somebody's beaten up software names. Do you think that's going to happen, Guy? I might have not participated in the.
- [46:26]
E
Is that is that you're throwing it to me?
- [46:28]
G
Well, I'm going to throw Adobe out.
- [46:29]
D
There and people are going to want.
- [46:31]
G
To try to buy this one. I'd probably try to avoid buying this one.
- [46:34]
E
We do enjoy having you. I hope you enjoy being here as much as we enjoy having you.
- [46:38]
B
Brian I enjoy being here. I don't enjoy getting okay, that's fair.
- [46:43]
E
First World Problems Salesforce CRM.
- [46:46]
B
Love it. All right, thanks for watching Fast Money, everybody. Mad money starts right now.
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A
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable and but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer why does every recipe I try need 18 ingredients, including a jar of something paste I'll never use again but will sit in my fridge for nine months? I just want dinner in the oven fast.
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