← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Apple’s Sweet Gains… And Eli Lilly Drops After Reporting 8/7/25
00:43:52
Apple seeing another day of gains, as investors pile in after CEO Tim Cook’s appearance in the oval office. How the tech giants U.S. investment is putting it in President Trump’s good graces, and if the stock’s climb will continue. Plus Shares of Eli Lilly plummeting after the pharma giant posted disappointing results for its weight loss pill. What one top health care analyst sees in store for the stock, and the next move in the weight loss drug race. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
What does it mean to live a rich life?
- [00:03]
Tim Seymour
It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes.
- [00:08]
Melissa Lee
And everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor.
- [00:18]
Tim Seymour
Will be there to help you move ahead with confidence.
- [00:22]
Melissa Lee
Because with all you've done to find.
- [00:23]
Tim Seymour
Your rich, we'll do all we can.
- [00:26]
Melissa Lee
To help you keep enjoying it.
- [00:28]
Tim Seymour
Edward Jones, Member, SIPC on WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.
- [01:07]
Dan Nathan
Live in the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. D.C. moves how words out of Washington sent to legacy tech stocks in very different directions today, what it means for manufacturing, AI and more. Plus, under the weather, Eli Lilly seeing its worst day since the turn of the century as disappointing data on its obesity bill overshadows strong earnings. What's a trade on the stock now? And what does it mean for competitor Novo Nordisk? And a slew of after hours movers from payments to social platforms to casinos and more. We've got the details behind all of tonight's after the Bell earnings. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Karen Feiderman and Dan Nathan. We'll get to President Trump's calls for a CEO change at intel in just a few minutes. But we start off with another sizable move in shares of Apple, the iPhone maker, gaining another 3% today after its 5% jump yesterday. The stock has now added $250 billion in market cap in just two days. That is bigger than a whole IBM. The move coming after CEO Tim Cook appeared in the Oval Office with Trump yesterday to announce that Apple is Investing an additional $100 billion to bring manufacturing back to the US is the recent momentum in Apple a sign that the long struggling stock is getting re rated? Timothy, I will start it off with you because you brought up this notion that maybe Apple is moving out of the slump that it's been in because of this lift from President Trump.
- [02:35]
Courtney Garcia
Although you used my my full given name, so I feel like I'm in trouble. But yeah, I think there's a chance here. I think it's less about the headlines, the pictures in the White House, the chumminess. I think Tim Cook has done a fantastic tactical job on his relationship with the White House as one of the companies that's probably doing more manufacturing outside of our, of our borders. But I do think going back to the quarter we just had, the dynamic here is you had 10% revenue growth, the street was at 4, 13 and a half percent. IPhone sales well ahead of where the street was. Gross margins that are going higher, especially in Europe and in Asia. It's a story where the services revenue I think is, is very much a part of where this company is. You can't say rerating because it's already rerated. But I think the more important, maybe I said that this morning. I think the point is that the rating is something that at least relative to what other mega cap tech stocks is deserved and that we haven't priced in AI, that's my view. We have not priced in an installed base that will be served up AI through an Apple handset. That's something that the market has not rewarded them for. They shouldn't be rewarded. But this was a great quarter that, and that's what's going on here.
- [03:48]
Dan Nathan
At least maybe we can remove the discount given because of the overhang of tariffs, right? I don't think so.
- [03:55]
Karen Feiderman
I mean I really, I respect Tim's view on this. I know he's long but I just couldn't disagree more with everything that he just said. First things first. Yes, it was a good quarter so I'm going to agree on that point. But it was only a good quarter because you saw this big pull forward you saw in China which reaccelerated a little bit because the iPhone worked into a subsidy like a consumer sort of, you know, subsidy that the government is put in place here. So you saw this behavior by consumers that is not likely to exist in the back half of the year. The reasons why is okay, fine, they had an exemption, they had an exemption in the first administration, the first tariff situation here. But when you think about that margin improvement, if you like services here, you better hope that that remedy as it relates to Google that they don't actually have to pull away that $20 billion that they, Google pays Apple for exclusive search on Safari. That is pure margin. That is the thing that makes their services business so interesting. Services has not been growing at the way it was a few years ago. And when you think about AI and what's discounted or what's not discounted, that's a huge part of a reacceleration or a hope thereof for, you know, the services business going forward. And they got nothing there. They got zero. And I actually believe now, even if they were to make an acquisition something like a perplexity, I just don't think it would be that important. Important for what they're doing. So if you're relying on a super cycle upgrade thing, jiggy, it's not happening this year, you know what I mean? So you're really going to have to push out those expectations to 2026. And the last point I'll just make is that this stock is still below where it was on April 2nd. So what has it done? Has it rerated? Has it really kind of taken off some of the risks that exist here because of tariffs? I just don't believe so. So I get, you know, have a ball. It just rallied 8% in two days. But I just don't think it's rallied on anything. That's going to carry it forward and into your end.
- [05:41]
Doug Clinton
I think it's rewritten a little bit in that one of the things that was really weighing on it seems to have lifted. So I think that is relevant. I think Tim Cook sort of once again, I think has done a masterful job after really being under a lot of pressure. Also, this is the kind of thing, you know, we talked about giant numbers being thrown out. Whether or not that actually ever happens, I don't know. But if you can get out of this current situation that's weighing on you just by agreeing to that, maybe they do, maybe they don't. The idea though of making iPhones in the US seems either highly unlikely or very expensive or provides no jobs because it's all robots. Right. I don't know if that's. That solves what Trump is looking to do with onshoring. Right. So, but that doesn't matter for the moment. I think Cook has done again a masterful job of paving the way for Apple to do its thing.
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Dan Nathan
I mean it's an additional $100 billion. Right. Which, which Steve Kovac made the point this morning that may have been already allocated right. Towards partners. Any, anyhow, they would have spent that money anyhow, he gave him a hunk of gold with a glass thing on it and BAM. Stocks up 8%. I mean that seems like a bargain. Yeah.
- [06:54]
Melissa Lee
Which I do think this is going to be a short term move. I think that the downside here was that these tariffs were going to affect them. But I do think the story isn't something we can ignore with Apple. I mean realistically, I don't know what it is that's going to create this super cycle that Dan brings up that they just keep pushing out. Everybody expect that to be spring of this year and they keep pushing it out. They're just getting delayed into the future and that's if it happens. Right? You need some sort of exciting phone for this super cycle. So if that doesn't happen, what's going to bring it higher?
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Dan Nathan
Can I ask you though, what if it's not a super cycle and it's just a cycle? What if we know that a lot of the iPhones out there in circulation are very old, like my iPhone 10 that will need upgrades? Because there is. I don't, I forgot what the percentage is. I think it's 25% or older than 10 years or something like that.
- [07:34]
Melissa Lee
I mean that's the same argument with PC is right, that there is going to be this PC refresh, but I think these are just lasting longer. People are okay with the technology when it's an incremental increase each time. So I think really the biggest benefit for them or a long term impact is going to be looking overseas. So like looking at India specifically is going to be I think one of their biggest places that they can increase their market share and I think that's probably a bigger opportunity than their story, which isn't here yet.
- [07:58]
Doug Clinton
I think the PC point is a good run long. Dell, Dell is suffering from this, this, I don't know, still on the horizon, but it's been on the horizon for a couple of years now. PC upgrade cycle that hasn't happened. So that's an interesting point. I hope Dell gets it together, but it's been elusive.
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Dan Nathan
Yeah Tim, and how are you feeling if that super cycle doesn't happen and it's just a regular old iPhone upgrade cycle that we are facing because there is no catalyst. Does that make you still bullish on the stock?
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Courtney Garcia
There's, there's no supercycle price into this stock. Why are we saying super cycle? Who's priced the supercycline? This stock's done nothing in three years that's acknowledged. In fact, that's the disappointment and maybe the frustration for, for, for people watching the show or people on the desk. The bottom line is there's nothing priced in. So if you're telling me there's a pull forward on handsets, I can buy that. If you're telling me that Google's suddenly not able to pay them that money. That's probably somewhat in the price, but there's no question it's a bigger issue for Google as we get down the road. So if we're selling Google off, you know, that's another story. But there's no question to me a I will the conduit for most people to experience their AI, whether it's search or other things, will be on an iPhone, and at some point this iPhone will be souped up. It doesn't matter, though, because that's not in the price. The point is that this is a company that's chugging along and in a market that might have other risks around it, Apple tends to be very defensive. If we remove China risk, which I know we're not doing, but China risks have gotten better, and that's really part of why the stock has rallied.
- [09:30]
Dan Nathan
All right, let's get to the other bit of D.C. drama out there today. President Trump calling on Intel CEO Lip Bhutan to resign immediately, saying he's highly conflicted due to his ties to Chinese companies. His Truth Post social post comes the day after Republican Senator Tom Cotton questioned Hands investments and referenced a criminal case involving his old firm Cadence Design. Shares of intel falling about 3% today are down nearly 12% this quarter. Let's bring in Doug Clinton, CEO and founder of Intelligent Alpha. Doug, great to have you with us. There's a couple of ways of looking at this. You know, in terms of Lif Bhutan. We just came off of this whole segment about how Tim Cook had to go to Washington and appease President Trump if Intel wants the backing of the federal government. Because part of the bull thesis on intel is that it's the National Semiconductor Company. It's not going to be the National Semiconductor Company and possibly getting loans, etcetera, Money from the federal government. If the president does not like the CEO, what should intel do?
- [10:32]
Steve Liesman
I think they're in a hard spot and I'm actually surprised, Melissa, the stock wasn't down more than it was today. I think part of that is because the market knows. Now, we've been dealing with these tariff questions for several months. And the question is, you know, how, how serious is Trump? He might change his mind tomorrow on some of these issues. But I think the real challenge for intel is they've committed to make large investments in America. They have a $28 billion fab project in Ohio that's been paused, delayed five years now. And I think that has to be something that's on the mind of the president. On the mind of the administration is how do we get intel some forward momentum? I mean, the company, the stock, they're both in the same place. They have no momentum because I think they've had a lot of challenges operationally. Maybe they need a new CEO and maybe that's Trump's angle. But certainly this uncertainty is not going to be helpful for the stock or the company right now.
- [11:23]
Doug Clinton
Doug, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. What's the difference between delayed five years and never going to happen? It sounds sort of like the same thing. What would, what should they be doing now?
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Steve Liesman
In fact, Karen, it may never happen because I know there's more recent reports that if they can't find demand for the new node that they're working in node process there, which is 14A, they may delay the the plan indefinitely. And so I think that speaks to the fundamental challenges that intel is having. And the reality is this. Tsmc, Samsung, they just fundamentally right now are better partners for any chip designer who needs to fab chips at great scale. Intel just has not figured out how to deliver a competitive product. I don't really know if changing the CEO again this year would make a difference on that.
- [12:13]
Dan Nathan
Or maybe changing the CEO again will make the turnaround even worse, make it more difficult. I mean, it takes time for a CEO to come in and get familiar and, and look, Bhutan has been in there for a bit now and you're basically throwing that sort of foundation away and starting anew. I mean, do you think that the intel turnaround is delayed or maybe even put off indefinitely if they are required to get rid of the CEO and find a new one?
- [12:41]
Steve Liesman
I think if you're an investor in intel, which at Intelligent Alpha we use AI to pick stocks, our models happen not to like Intel. But I think if you are an investor in intel, what you're probably looking for is one of two things. Either we hear more about a potential breakup because there are still valuable assets there. They have the chip Design business, the x86 processor is still not dead. They do have the foundry business, which has lost a lot of money. But I think there could still be value in those assets. If we get more momentum on this idea of a breakup, that could be good for the stock. The other thing is, you know, maybe Trump's angle here is some sort of a nationalization play saying, you know, intel is actually a national security asset. We'll invest here, we'll give them favorable treatment, whatever that might look like. And you could have an Apple scenario if you get an announcement like that.
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Dan Nathan
All right, Doug, thank you so much for joining us. Appreciate it.
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Steve Liesman
Thank you, Doug.
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Dan Nathan
Clinton, what do you think of the intel situation?
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Melissa Lee
Court, I think this is very similar to Apple, in which case the headlines are getting from Washington are kind of hiding the bigger issues, right? With Apple, it's the AI story that I think is getting buried here with Intel. It's the fact that their foundry, which is like one of the largest long term opportunities for them, seem to be falling by the wayside. So I think regardless of the headlines, should the CEO come or go, till they get that figured out, I don't know where the stock is going to go from here.
- [13:59]
Karen Feiderman
It seems pretty anti capitalist here. And you know, the other thing is if you're in a nationalized for the.
- [14:04]
Dan Nathan
Federal government to come into a private company, say who should be.
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Karen Feiderman
See, we know that they like to pick winners and losers, but I just don't think this is a good environment where, you know, you basically say you want to compete with, let's say, you know, a foundry over in Taiwan, that sort of thing. You're talking about pushing out the management. You're talking about maybe nationalizing, that sort of thing. You need talent to do that too, right? So if you have a nationalized sort of tech company like that, you're not likely to be able to compete one way or another. And you know, part of this thing is, is like we don't manufacture that well anymore. I mean that's one of the reasons why Taiwan Semiconductor makes 90% of the high end GPUs that go into the world. So this would take a long time. To your point about pushing out a foundry five years. It's not easy stuff to do, right. And not the other thing is, is like this technology changes a lot and it changes quickly and you need to be nimble, that sort of thing. So the other thing I'll just say is like it seems really hypocritical, right? If you're talking about ties to China and that sort of thing. Well, Jensen Huang has ties to China. I mean Jensen Huang sells a lot and this is Nvidia obviously sells a lot of chips into China. They just got. And you could say, well if Tim, Tim Apple, you know, played the, I'm sorry, if Tim Cook played the President pretty well, no one's done it better than Jensen Huang, right? And they're selling billions and billions of dollars of chips into China that are going to make it into their defense and intelligence apparatus. And I do not believe that he has the national interest of the United States. But he definitely has the fiduciary responsibility to his shareholders. And that's one of the reasons why he's gone to Mar a Lago. He's gone to the White House and he's done these sorts of deals to get the, the, you know, the export bans reversed.
- [15:35]
Dan Nathan
Okay. Meantime, we got to get some other news out of the White House today. President Trump appointing an interim replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, current CEA chair Stephen Myron, that news crossing just before the market closed today. CNBC Steve Liesman joins us. Steve, what do you make of this move by the president?
- [15:53]
Evan David Segerman
I mean, I think it's the part of a process where President Trump will have four of seven board of governor seats on the Federal Reserve, which is the four of seven permanent voters there over time, by the time Fed Chair Powell leaves in May. And the question becomes, you know, where is the center of the board after all of this is done? It's a little hard to game out right now, but you could think of this like the decades of Supreme Court nominees, some of whom go over there and they basically toe the line of the political person who appointed them to office, and other times they break away. So the Fed is a strong institution and it has its mandate from Congress. The question becomes, I guess the concern is whether or not you have a Federal Reserve governor who's part of a process where the allegiance is to the executive or the administration and not to the purpose or the goal of the Federal Reserve, which is the dual mandate of low inflation and low unemployment. So it's unclear at this point. It looks like it's a temporary posting, a temporary nomination, and maybe they'll come back and replace him, maybe he'll stay. But he's given himself a little bit of time, Melissa, to not have to deal with the Fed chair issue, maybe until January.
- [17:12]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, it just sounds like he probably won't make it for the September meeting, Myron, in terms of the process to get him in, but certainly for meetings subsequent to that this year. Is that the expectation?
- [17:26]
Evan David Segerman
Yeah, it's more of a political question. I think it would be tough for the senate to confirm Mr. Meeren before September, before the September meeting, which is, I think in the middle of the month, September 17th, but certainly for October. And then it just becomes a question of what they're doing by then, though, you know, if this tariff inflation ends up being not such a big deal, and if the jobs situation is more serious or obviously something that should motivate the Fed, then they'll be cutting and there'll be no question. I would like to also point out, before we get too excited or I get too excited about it being a political appointment, that's exactly the position that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke came from, was CEA chair. So this is normal for them to spend a little bit of time in the White House. Greenspan spent time in the White House before becoming Fed Chair. So this is normal. And then it becomes a question of how they operate and where the center of the board is and how they operate.
- [18:17]
Karen Feiderman
Hey, Steve, you're a student of economic history. Let's just say we have a situation where the dual mandate goes haywire, Right? Let's just say that inflation is a bit stickier and it's because of the trade war and. But we do have weakening jobs data. And you could also say because of the trade war. Right. We're losing manufacturing jobs. What is the Fed to do? If you look back in history and you have this stagflationary environment, if they start cutting rates, doesn't that make things that much more difficult?
- [18:44]
Evan David Segerman
Yes, it certainly does. And it's interesting that the weakness in the jobs report from Friday does not make the inflation problem go away. Remember, inflation is stuck core PC at 2.8%. So that's not going to go away anytime soon. And the Fed is going to face this dilemma. It sort of already does. What's hope now is that the Fed is able to use some of its credibility to battle cut rates and address potential weakness in the economy and keep inflation expectation anchored, because the belief is the Fed will come back and address it and keep relatively tight. Remember, it's obviously a debate how tight the Fed is, but it doesn't have to go to neutral right away. It has a little bit to give. It could give a quarter, see how prices react, come back later, every other meeting or sometime. I think in General Powell wants to do more than one cut at a time. And that's the way I think the market would price it in or has already priced it in. But there's nothing that says they have to keep going. If this data come in and shows your problem, remember what the Fed has told us, that they're going to address the one that's furthest away from where their forecast says it should be. So if jobs end up being a big problem, they're going to address it. If inflation ends up being a bigger problem, they'll address that.
- [20:04]
Dan Nathan
Right. Steve, thank you. Good to see you. Steve Liesman.
- [20:07]
Evan David Segerman
Pleasure.
- [20:08]
Dan Nathan
And at the same time, of course, this morning we Got jobless claims number, we got a productivity number which came in stronger than expected. Tim, what do you make of all of this in light of these developments over at the Fed?
- [20:22]
Courtney Garcia
The data has been somewhat conflicted but the hard data hasn't been great. And the services economy data with price stickiness are the things that make the stubbornness of inflation make the Fed's job very easy. The fact that we're talking about the politics of the Fed and four governors that have been at least lean to the administration does mean that the Fed has become more political. I recognize we've had this process in the past, but I do think it's, it's a, it's a case where if we're questioning the independence of the Fed, we are questioning there is some question about the independence of the Fed going forward. That has not ever really been an issue in my lifetime in markets. So I'm disturbed by that. Having said all of that, look at that 10 year seems to be very anchored somewhere between 4:15 and 435. I mean it's been a very sideways slog with a lot of uncertainty with the exception of that called bond put that the market had in April.
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Doug Clinton
I just want to say about the productivity increase, if it's persistent real, I think that is a very good thing for those concerned about inflation.
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Courtney Garcia
Right.
- [21:28]
Doug Clinton
If companies can be more productive, keep.
- [21:30]
Dan Nathan
A little prices coming up, a lot of after hours action to bring you block, Pinterest, Wynn Resorts and more all on the move. The numbers from the quarters next. Plus trouble in the enterprise trade, why software stocks are selling off and whether the group can turn things around. Don't go anywhere. Fast money's back into.
- [21:52]
Steve Liesman
How will you.
- [21:52]
Courtney Garcia
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- [22:55]
Tim Seymour
No one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately.
- [23:28]
Dan Nathan
Welcome back to Fast Money and Earnings Alert on Block spiking after hours the payments company missing top and bottom line estimate estimates but boosting full year guidance. Its conference calls underway. CNBC's MacKenzie Segal is following the action. Hey Mac.
- [23:40]
Melissa Lee
Hey Mel. So Block shares popping as much as 11% in the after hours though it is paring those gains now. But it shows that investors are clearly willing to forgive that Q2 miss on earnings thanks to the company's outlook for the back half of the year. Block raising its guidance for full year gross profit now projecting 14% year over year growth. And then Cash App that was a weak point last quarter it saw its gross profit jump to $1.5 billion in Q2. I've been listening in on that call. Just now we heard from CEO Jack Dorsey. He said that the company can double down and pull the thread on what resonates with people, adding that he's super excited and super bullish on shipping faster, making both Cash App and Square that much better and more usable. And this is really what a lot of analysts were looking at going into the print.
- [24:26]
Dan Nathan
Mel all right Mac, thanks. Mackenzie Seagalos I was sort of surprised, you know, that they were going to raise their full year when they missed on the quarter. It's like trust me, I promise you it's coming later on which investors don't generally don't enjoy.
- [24:40]
Doug Clinton
Like so they I'm hopeful that they must feel confident that they're going to be able to do that. So I mean it was a nice pop of let's come back a little. The call started at 5. I definitely want to hear what they had to say on the call but also it's coming from a pretty low, pretty low multiple. And you know the stocks had a nice run recently but the last couple of years have been very difficult.
- [25:02]
Karen Feiderman
Not expensive, not I mean they're supposed to see a reacceleration earnings and really get back to where they were in 2023. I mean as far as EPS and You know, the Cash app coming off of really like massive deceleration and they're talking about 10% growth. I mean that's fine, but they're still missing earnings. Right. And so if you're looking out and saying we're going to get back to those 20, 23 levels, as far as earnings are concerned, is trading at 20 times, that's fine, like have a ball. I mean right now it feels like there's probably better places to be in the fintech space.
- [25:31]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. Another earnings alert here. Pinterest shares plunging and extended trading. The company beating on sales but missing on EPS. CNBC's Julia Borson's got the details. Hey Julia.
- [25:41]
Melissa Lee
That's right. Revenue of $998 million ahead of estimates of 975 million. But the stock dropping on adjusted EPS of 33 cents per share, that's two cents short of estimates. While monthly active users were three and a half million ahead of estimates. The company is guiding to third quarter revenue in a range ahead of the consensus estimates. CEO Bill Reddy saying that Gen Z has grown to over half of Pinterest user base, that their AI powered performance platform is helping them and they're becoming a personalized shopping destination. All of which makes them well positioned to further capture market share. Now as for the macro environment, Bill Ready saying that the ad market is a bit more constructive than last quarter with less tariff impact than anticipated. They say that that strength is expected to continue into Q3, though they did note that the tariff related uncertainty varies by advertiser. Melissa?
- [26:37]
Dan Nathan
Okay, Julia, Thanks. Julia Borson, 11% decline right now. Courtney, what do you think of pins?
- [26:42]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, and I think when you're looking at the advertisers here, you're clearly saying they're not as big of a player as like a meta. So I think these advertisers are having to choose where they're where they're coming here. I do think where Pinterest is unique is they're really having shoppable content and they're really investing in artificial intelligence and making sure that they're giving their users exactly what they want to see. Like you can actually search images to make sure it's giving you other things are similar to that that you can actually buy, which is helpful for advertisers. They're just not as big of a player and in this softer advertising space that's going to hit them.
- [27:09]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, Tim.
- [27:12]
Courtney Garcia
Cheap certainly relative to itself down roughly 25% cheap to the 5 year average forward of something 21, 22 times. I just think that the stocks had an incredible run. There was nothing terrible in what they just announced. But you came into this within 4% of 52 week. 52 week highs. Stocks up 43% year over year. You're right at the top of a range. I think it's going to work its way back here year.
- [27:37]
Doug Clinton
Like I say every time. Pinterest reports and snap reports, why would you want to be in either of those instead of Metta, right? Same is true.
- [27:44]
Dan Nathan
Now there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [27:49]
Courtney Garcia
Enterprise pain, why the software group is selling off and whether there's any upside.
- [27:54]
Karen Feiderman
For the long struggling stocks.
- [27:56]
Courtney Garcia
Plus Eli Lilly shares losing weight as its obesity pill deals out disappointing data where the stock could head from here and what it means for the GLP1 drug race. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [28:20]
Tim Seymour
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Courtney Garcia
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Jack Dorsey
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Courtney Garcia
Register now@cnbcmakeit.com Personal Brand.
- [28:54]
Dan Nathan
Welcome back to Fast Money, a setback for the enterprise software trade today. Shares of stocks like HubSpot, DocuSign, Twilio and Salesforce all seeing outsized losses. Dan was the one who pointed out the weakness today.
- [29:06]
Karen Feiderman
Well, this is a weakness that's been going on for like six months here too. And so it's like the opposite story of the generative AI trade.
- [29:12]
Courtney Garcia
Right.
- [29:12]
Karen Feiderman
So this is the application layer that was so popular during that SaaS boom over the last, let's call it prior to a couple of years ago for the previous decade. And so when you look at some of these names and throw Salesforce in there, and this is one that you know, Adobe and Salesforce in 2023, they were telling a generative AI story and there's nothing other than happened over the last few years is them being disrupted or at least investors believing they're going to be disrupted going forward. So when you look at even Figma, you know, Adobe tried to buy Figma about a year ago for $20 billion. Here it is with a $35 billion market cap after its IPO. And Figma is not immune to this either. So this is just a space you could try to dumpster dive here and you could try to like say there's really value here. At some point someone will get it together. They'll probably be some consolidation. But this is not a space I think you want to be right now.
- [30:00]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, Tim.
- [30:03]
Courtney Garcia
Look, it's hard to argue that there aren't valuations in here that are very vulnerable. I also look at the weakness in fortnet had good numbers but they gave a guide on, you know, EOS by the end of 26 which says that the growth isn't what they once thought it was and services is slowing a little bit. That hit crowdstrike anybody who's in both networking and in cyber. And so yes, I think that's it's worth watching here. These are some names that have a lot priced into them and for the growth levels that they have had. Any slowing is and it's having a domino effect for related plays. That's I think part of what Dan brought up earlier today when we're all talking is that you're seeing a lot of these guys get hammered by the news of one or two players. And I think that on some level that's, that's justified. I will say the IGV relative to the S and P is near making another relative high. So it's not like it is collapsed in software land. But no question outsized moves.
- [30:57]
Dan Nathan
All right, coming up, Eli Lilly's worst day in 25 years. The disappointing data taking that stock and did the news create an opening for top competitor Novo Nordisk? The details in the trade when Fast Money returns.
- [31:13]
Courtney Garcia
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast next. We're back right after this.
- [31:27]
Dan Nathan
Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks closing well off the highs of the day. The Dow falling more than 200 points. The s and P about flat. The NASDAQ climbing about 3.10of a percent. Shares of space tech developer Firefly Aerospace rising 34% in its market debut but closing lower than where it opened. The stock price at $45 last night above its expected range and settled just over $60. Some more after hours action. Gilead, Expedia, Instacart and MP materials all topping EPS and revenue estimates. And Live Nation coming up short on earnings, setting a large increase in operating expenses. And shares of Tesla. We're watching that in the after hours after Bloomberg reported the company is disbanding its Dojo supercomputer team. That stock is just fractionally lower right now. And Airbnb dropping more than 8% on the back of its results last night. The company topped EPS and revenue estimates, but forecast weaker growth in the second half of the year. Courtney, you're interested in this one?
- [32:19]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, and I think it's really interesting to see where they're forecasting the consumer because there is a question of is inflation going to continue to affect the consumer. Everybody is worried are they getting too stretched? So you've seen this kind of throughout the year where companies have lowered guidance saying we have really good earnings now, but we're just not sure where the consumer is in the future. We just haven't actually seen that happen yet. So I don't know if anything occurred. Could be an opportunity to buy into this if you think. The economy's been holding stronger than people are forecasting. But it's definitely something to continue to watch.
- [32:45]
Dan Nathan
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly falling in its worst day since August 2000, even after beating top and bottom line estimates before the bell. The pharma giant sharing some disappointing late stage trial results for its Orford Clip run weight loss pill patients lost 12% of their body weight at 72 weeks. But almost a quarter discontinued use because of side effects. That news giving a boost to Lilly's biggest competitor in the GLP1 space, Novo Nordisk, which was down sharply after its results yesterday, surging today. Let's bring in BMO head of health care research, Evan David Segerman. Evan, great to have you with us.
- [33:18]
Jack Dorsey
Thank you for having me.
- [33:20]
Dan Nathan
Did Lilly deserve to be down 14% today?
- [33:22]
Jack Dorsey
I think it's a bit oversold, but it just shows how Lilly was priced to perfection. I mean expectations for this data set, you know, above 15%. They had been going around saying this. I had a quote from one of their executives, you know, pointing to wegovy like efficacy and in this game a few percentage points really matters because you need to believe in the long term strength of their franchise. And this puts some questions into it.
- [33:44]
Dan Nathan
Do you think about the potential for this drug in terms of dollars in terms of market differently based on this data?
- [33:53]
Jack Dorsey
So I think this plus this, the concept of around oral sema, high dose oral semo that Novo had been touting, this is basically oral will go v. We saw 16.6% weight loss, pretty good tolerability. Now you have 11%. So when you think about the oral market split, I think some shifts to a Gobi because people see that headline number, even though there's this food effect issue which we were talking about, but again, 11%, probably more used in the maintenance setting once you lose your weight with, with an injectable.
- [34:21]
Dan Nathan
So whereas before this data it was seen that it was Lilly's market and now there's an opening for Novo and it actually looks very competitive. But in terms of the differences between the two, just to emphasize them, they're not the same. The weight loss, you know, you can compare the percentages, but there are certain restrictions in terms of wegovy in the pill, when it's consumed, how it's consumed and the cost to manufacture is different as well.
- [34:43]
Jack Dorsey
Most definitely. And that food effect is so important. So think about it this way. If you're busy in the morning, you can take orthaglipron whenever you want. With Wegovy and a pill, you have to take it after fasting. So when you wake up, small amount of water, wait 30 minutes and then you can eat. If you eat something as soon as you get up, you've missed your dose for the day. In terms of manufacturing, this is a lot of peptide, 25 milligrams, whereas you're just getting 2.4 milligrams in a shot every week. It's a lot of peptide they have to manufacture. So the cost of goods, definitely higher.
- [35:13]
Dan Nathan
I'm wondering because, you know, with, with Novo's results, volumes were down and so in order to boost volume, what do you do? Normally you cut price in some way. Do you think that we are entering a phase of the weight loss drug space where there can be price competition?
- [35:28]
Jack Dorsey
Well, we're definitely seeing some pricing headwinds. I would also say the CVS exclusive deal, which we've talked a lot about, that's going to have impacts on both results. You know, in the back half of the year, that going to give Novo Nordisk a bit of a boost, be a headwind for Lilly and, you know, they did cut a deal, right? They're giving bigger rebates, so you're seeing a bit of a price. You know, I don't say price war, but it is definitely some pricing concessions. It's not a race to the bottom yet. You don't see that with two players. So I'm not worried about that at this moment.
- [35:55]
Doug Clinton
So it seemed like there was a bit of a disconnect on the call with the company say, we're so pleased and, you know, £27 on average and, and the street being. Well, that's great. Glad you're pleased, but this isn't what we were Looking at for. So how did that disconnect come to be?
- [36:10]
Jack Dorsey
That's a great question and I would agree completely. I was actually very surprised and I was listening to the call thinking, what is going on here?
- [36:16]
Doug Clinton
You got a question at the very end.
- [36:18]
Jack Dorsey
Last question. I did not ask about or forglip when I asked about mfn. But I really think that, you know, they look at the totality of the data, they see great weight loss. But I think you have to really look at it in context of what's out there and the expectations that they set. I'm really frustrated when companies, companies set expectations 25% with Cagrosema, 15 or so percent with this drug and fall flat, change the narrative, control the narrative.
- [36:42]
Dan Nathan
Because they could have done that going into the data. And I noticed, I mean, I didn't listen to the call, but David Ricks was on Squawk Box this morning and he also seemed to be tone deaf to the stock that was dropping on the very release of the data. I mean, right. You would think that after Carissema that these companies would have learned. Does this make you think about the message period that Eli Lilly is putting out about any of its pipeline drugs?
- [37:08]
Jack Dorsey
I wouldn't go that far. But I would agree that you need to learn from what your competitor does do right and wrong. You know, covering both companies, I have an advantage because I see both sides of it. There's a lot of folks that just cover Lilly and Novo. So you don't understand what the other side is doing. And sometimes you are blind to what you you have. And I think that's what happened here.
- [37:27]
Dan Nathan
Evan, thanks for coming by.
- [37:29]
Jack Dorsey
Thank you for having me.
- [37:29]
Dan Nathan
David Zegerman. Tim, how are you feeling about your Novo?
- [37:35]
Courtney Garcia
Well, it does feel like the other side. So, you know, this was a 21% relative move of Novo to Lilly today, and they still have a lot of ground to make up. But the 1 to 2% percentage point miss on the weight loss here feels. This feels like a Novo day for what Lilly went through. Feels exactly where I think the market has overreacted. It's nice to see that, that the market has some reflexivity on this. I think the market, the expectations for both companies are extremely high. I think. I think Lilly looks interesting here. I think Novo looks a lot more interesting. And I think this helps support the case of at least a relative position within the industry that's still dominant.
- [38:14]
Melissa Lee
I think what really stood out to me is when you look at the weight loss like you're still getting weight loss so maybe you are going to take this pill. But I think the bigger thing was the side effects, like how many people stopped taking this because the side effects that actually seemed like the bigger headline that I think was kind of buried under the weight loss headline that hit. But I do think this is probably good news for Novo and this something we've been talking about. You've given us these would you rathers but Novo just has been such a better valuation and this just puts them a leg up. So I probably would still take them over Lilly. I think both are going to win in the space but I think that's probably the better buy right now.
- [38:44]
Doug Clinton
Great. Novo over Lilly at this point.
- [38:46]
Dan Nathan
Point.
- [38:47]
Doug Clinton
Right. They got a little bit of. Right. Yeah, well I own less Lilly now not having sold it just being worth less. But yeah, they got a little bit of a credibility issue. No one cared about the guidance being higher. That was not the story at all.
- [39:00]
Dan Nathan
Coming up, some retail movers catching our attention in today's session. The results that hit Ralph Lauren and sent shares of Crocs plummeting. That's next. Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Intel responding to President Trump's calls for the CEO to resign. The company saying its board of directors and Lip Bhutan are deeply committed to advancing US national and economic security interests. They are continuing to invest billions of dollars in domestic semiconductor R and D and manufacturing and they look forward to our continued engagement with the administration. We'll of course monitor true social to see if there's a response to that. In the meantime, intel shares are up by just a fraction of the after hour session. Meantime shares of Ralph Lauren dropping six and a half percent today even as the company boosted guidance for the fiscal year revenue. The American fashion brand saw sales rise 14% from from a year ago but warned of a weaker second half due to tariff pressures. The stock is still up 22% this year and I guess that that is the context. It's been a real performer in this space.
- [40:15]
Doug Clinton
Yes. And this, this quarter was excellent performance as well. I sort of feel like they're just tempering why, why be out over your skis if you really don't need to be. Maybe the tariff situation, they have actually a decent handle on it. I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case. So I thought this was a bit of an overreaction.
- [40:33]
Dan Nathan
Yeah.
- [40:34]
Melissa Lee
And I think there's this argument we've been having for several months over the soft data or this is hard data and this is one of those soft data things of everything's good now, but we're just worried what it's going to be in the future. And I just don't, I just don't see it yet. And I think really in their numbers, they had some really strong numbers, especially that about 30% sales growth in China with that I really like to see especially on international on this kind of a brand. So I would actually look this is an opportunity.
- [40:55]
Dan Nathan
Meantime, Crocs getting chomped. The footwear brand down nearly 30% today, its largest drop since 2011. This comes after the company warned sales in the current quarter could decline 9 to 11%. That's far worse than for estimates of a slight gain. Crocs also saying it wouldn't reinstate guidance for the year due to trade uncertainty. Wow. Tim.
- [41:20]
Courtney Garcia
Well, the question that investors have been having for a number of companies in this discussion, discretionary, either apparel, etc. Spend is this a macro story or is this a micro story? And in Crocs case, I think it's both. I think it comes into this riding high like it lost a third of its market cap today. So you have to say some of this has to be on the company. This isn't a macro that just got one, you know, took away a third of their business. 20% of their demo is the low end consumer that they say is being pressured. They're also talking about shelf space at the expense of losing shelf space for you know, fast casual in the form of footwear, not food to athletic. And that's something that they've cited. So the resiliency of footwear and athleisure at the expense of clogs or whatever we're calling Crocs. So I, I am worried, I'm worried about the micro in a handful of stories. Look at Lulu that continues to make new fresh lows. But I'm worried about the macro for the space.
- [42:22]
Dan Nathan
Coming up, more earnings action shares a win on the move after reporting its results. The details and numbers from the quarter. Next, more Fast Money into welcome back to FAST Money. Another earnings alert, this time on Wynn Resort shares slightly lower after the casino operator missed top and bottom line expectations. Contessa Bruce got the details. Hi contest.
- [42:49]
Melissa Lee
Hey there, Melissa. Some of this was just bad luck in Macao or at least bad luck for the house. I mean the VIPs got lucky win missed on all metrics in Macao. But on the call, CEO Craig Billings said they're seeing a boost in new customers post pandemic people who really had not been to Macao before And it's quote here, I quote him hand to hand combat for market share there. Wynn has had an easier time in Las Vegas and really has outperformed its competitors on the Strip, set a new second quarter record for profits. And Billings said the booking pace in July is some of the best that they've seen this year. Of course, we heard something very different from Caesars and from MGM about this summer slump in Sin City there. You can see the movement of the shares in the extended hours, but the miss in Macau seems to be driving shares lower. Melissa?
- [43:36]
Dan Nathan
All right, Contessa, thank you. Contessa Brewer, got to go to Tim. You've been on this Macao trade.
- [43:43]
Courtney Garcia
I'm very bullish on Macao. I think Wins properties there are very well positioned. I you know the broader story for Wynne as it includes Las Vegas and even Boston and was generally reasonably positive when palace disappointed. But I would prefer to have the pure play on Macao. That's both Melco and LVs, which I think has even more direct exposure. So I like to trade. I like the trade because I think the rest of the world's going to Macau. Whether China's economy is fully opening up or not, it doesn't really matter. It still hasn't priced back from COVID.
- [44:15]
Dan Nathan
How are you thinking about gambling stocks, if at all? Courtney?
- [44:19]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, and I think what I think Tim's exactly right. I think Macao really is going to be the opportunity there because they really had a slump post Covid and I think they're still coming back, whereas here in the US I think we've already hit that peak. I do think something like a win is nice because it does have that diversification geographically. But I do think it's right if you want to be in Macao specific, you probably want to look at something like, like a Las Vegas sands, which ironically is not in Las Vegas anymore.
- [44:41]
Dan Nathan
The VIPs who go to Macao, Tim, are they from mainland China as in the past, or has that composition changed?
- [44:48]
Courtney Garcia
A lot of them, a lot of them are, but Southeast Asia too. I mean if you, if you look at some of the flow coming both from the Philippines, Indonesia, a lot of wealth, a lot of vip, lot of a lot of high rollers. So it's not reliant on China.
- [45:03]
Dan Nathan
All right, up next, final trades. It is time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn, Courtney.
- [45:21]
Melissa Lee
Ralph Lauren. We talked about this earlier, but I think in this space, especially with a higher income consumer is probably going to hold up better.
- [45:26]
Dan Nathan
I'd take a look here, Karen.
- [45:29]
Doug Clinton
Yes, so it was an outstanding day for Novo in a in a period of time in which it had very few. But I actually think maybe this is the beginning of a turnaround for them. So I do own Lilly when he's adding to Novo.
- [45:41]
Dan Nathan
Nordisk certainly gives the new CEO a little space.
- [45:43]
Doug Clinton
Yes.
- [45:44]
Dan Nathan
A little room to breathe. Right?
- [45:45]
Doug Clinton
Very good Dig.
- [45:46]
Dan Nathan
Tim Seymour.
- [45:49]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, split them up. I'm buying Dan's Apple. A stock that's done nothing for three years is hardly priced in AI, and I don't think that the last 8% is anything more than a bounce off of 205 where it's helped.
- [46:00]
Dan Nathan
Dan. I wonder what your trade is.
- [46:02]
Karen Feiderman
You know, I think Tim got here for the death rattle of generative AI trades here. And so, you know, maybe Apple has a ball, goes up another 10% or something like that. I just think there's more risk in the name here for fundamental reasons.
- [46:14]
Doug Clinton
So how about it?
- [46:16]
Dan Nathan
Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money starts now.
- [46:18]
Tim Seymour
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals, like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.