
All eyes on Apple, as the tech giant gets ready for its Worldwide Developers Conference. With shares still down nearly 20% this year, what can Apple reveal to help turn the stock around? How their AI plans are shaping up, and what the Fast Money traders see in store for the Mag7 laggard. Plus A “confusing” jobs report. What one top market expert sees in the data, and how he’s navigating from here. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC Member NYSE SIPC Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight, a make or break moment for Apple, the company ready to kick off its worldwide developers conference. Can next week's event impress investors and get the stock back in rally mode? We'll debate that plus deal or no deal. US Officials set to meet with their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday. Can the two sides come to a deal on trade and what could it mean for the markets? And Tesla's rebound loses steam even as the dust settles in the musk Trump feud. Lulu's Big Lemon A day after earnings and energy stocks get energized to wrap up the week, is this the start of a longer term rally? I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live in studio. Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Bono and Ison, Courtney Garcia and Steve Grasso. And we start off at the countdown to Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference kicking off Monday, 10am Pacific Time. Expectations seemingly lower going into this event. The company last year unveiled Apple intelligence but hasn't fully delivered on what was promised. Shares of Apple rising over a percent and a half today to lock in the stock's first back to back up week since mid February. Still, the tech giant is down almost 19% this year, thanks in part to its lagging strategy, China tariff fears and a murky outlook for the second half of the year. IT shed over $700 billion in market cap this year alone. For more on what to expect next week in Cupertino, let's bring in Steve Kobach.
Steve Kovac
Steve hey there, Mel. Yeah. Apple's developer conference does kick off on Monday, coming at the midpoint of a bruising year for the tech giant. So far, Apple's facing numerous threats, perhaps more happening at once than at Any other time during CEOs Tim Cook's tenure, Shares are down around, like you said, 18% year to date. So WWDC is Apple's chance to have a reset moment and show investors it has a path to get things back on course. But it's all with the backdrop of numerous challenges. Let me give you a quick recap of what's been going on this year. President Trump's tariffs and the trade war, of course, most recently, Trump threatening new tariffs on Apple products at the end of this month if they're not made in the United States. And then the failure to execute on artificial intelligence after revealing Apple intelligence system at last year's wwdc. Most notably, it indefinitely delayed the AI update to Siri. In April. Court forced Apple to allow apps to accept payments from the Web, skirting app store fees. Apple is appealing that case. But major apps like Spotify and Amazon Kindle, well, they're already taking advantage. And then there's the Johnny I've defection to OpenAI, the design guru behind the iPhone now says he cracked a code for a unique AI device that'll wean us off smartphones. While you shouldn't expect Apple to address any of those issues directly, investors are going to be watching WWDC for any hints at a path forward to mitigate them.
Melissa Lee
Melissa, in terms of the perception, the narrative that is behind an AI last year, obviously that was what set the stock on fire for some time this year. Is there anything that can change the narrative in terms of announcing a partnership with a different chat bot or anything else that can sort of revamp that or reignite that?
Steve Kovac
Yeah. So last year when Apple Intelligence was announced, Melissa, they did announce that Chachi beat integration and said, by the way, we're going to open this up eventually to other AI models, they in fact called out Google's Gemini model by name. So it's possible they announced that partnership is ready. That could help things a little bit, kind of fill in the gaps. And then last month, Eddie Q, he's the services boss over at Apple, he was testifying in that Google antitrust trial and he said Apple is actually looking at Perplexity. That's the search engine startup which already has deals with phone company Motorola. They're rumored to have a deal with Samsung. And so that could also help as well, plugging it into Siri until Apple can get Siri updated the way they promised us they would last year.
Steve Grasso
Mel.
Melissa Lee
All right, Steve, thanks. I know you're headed there. Safe travels. Steve Kovac.
Steve Kovac
Thank you.
Melissa Lee
All right, can any of these things reignite the shares and justify the 28 times forward multiple timing?
Steve Grasso
I doubt it. But again we've been surprised before. I think the bar is so low has been noted and I think the dynamic with China is something that if anything maybe there's a little bit of positive here in the last couple of days in terms of overall China trade, the competitive nature for Apple and China. I think their best days are behind them. I think their best days for them in AI or Apple Intelligence are ahead of them and I think that's part of why I'm relatively bullish. I hate the valuation. I think some of the concerns on the regulatory front are overdone. I think the, the dynamic around services, the dynamic around where we're going to be ultimately the way they are going to be how AI is distributed amongst I think most people in the world. I still believe that I own the stock. I don't expect much.
Melissa Lee
The best days of Apple intelligence have to be.
Steve Grasso
They won't because there haven't haven't been.
Melissa Lee
Any days so far. They're right.
Steve Grasso
Bring it, bring it on. But that's kind of my point to.
Melissa Lee
Wait in a 28 times forward multiple stock for those days to come.
Bono
Yes. So here's where I think Apple was, was, was, was dumb like a fox. What's the saying? Something like that. But when you, when you look back.
Steve Grasso
No idea what you.
Craig Moffett
Like a fox because it's supposed to.
Bono
Be an ironic thing. So if you go back to the deep sea headline, the rest of the mag, seven names traded off precipitously lower. Apple was up 2 to 3% within the first week and outperformed a month out. What kills Apple is China. Tariffs Trump talking about making the product here but everything that killed the others is Apple strength. They haven't invested in AI so that's their, that's their tailwind that they haven't spent $86 billion. They could just do sort of a plug in for AI with perplexity. That's where I think you're going to get a tailwind. And so negative the story has been. I think it's due for a pounce.
Craig Moffett
Yeah, I tend to agree in terms of your, your patience in terms of them being able to deliver on Apple intelligence because they haven't had the robust Capex spend. I think if we're in this situation and they still hadn't been able to deliver and they had spent 50, 60, $70 billion then I 100% absolutely agree. Like there's, there's really not much upside there. The other thing is like the tariffs and local manufacturing, these are all challenges that everyone else is also facing. There is some idiosyncratic risk in terms of them not being able to really lean into the India build out that they had. You know, that was like kind of like their first pivot. So there is some idiosyncratic risk, but we're all dealing with the whole tariff thing. I think what you want to see out of this WWDC conference is them addressing developers because the ruling about processing and fees and fee circumvention for developers, they still need to establish themselves as being the preeminent place where developers come and where they can continue to have that service engine on that robust user install installed base. I think that's really the one thing. I think anything else as it pertains to Apple intelligence is likely upside for the reasons that we all stated.
Tim Seymour
And they're going to have to do that at some point, right? I mean realistically you're going to have to stay up with the times because it will go by the wayside. I mean BlackBerry used to be the phone we all had and then Apple came in and if they don't have some sort of artificial intelligence, you're going to see someone like an OpenAI who makes that AI device and it could take over. And that's really what investors are a little worried about when you look at it and its valuation. I mean Apple trades about 28 times next year's earnings, which isn't that dissimilar than Nvidia, like 29 times. When you look at sales going forward, it's like four times sales growth over the next 12 months for Apple versus like what is it, 40 something times for Nvidia. I mean it's, it's a huge discrepancy. So when you're looking at slowing growth, they're losing share in China. They don't have an AI story. They have to get that at some point or their valuation isn't going to be just.
Bono
Services is growing at 23% in the last couple of years. It was only growing at 10% by the way. It's crazy.
Melissa Lee
Like a fox.
Courtney Garcia
That's what I was thinking.
Bono
All right, so services is probably, probably.
Steve Grasso
Would not have been going back to it. I mean we move past that.
Melissa Lee
Let it go.
Bono
I wanted to prove that I could recapture it seven minutes later. Completely appropriate, nonsecurrent. But services is what you're paying for Apple and the 2.35 billion installed utility. It's what?
Melissa Lee
The utility?
Bono
It could be a utility, but I mean, but I think they haven't wasted money to bono its point, they haven't wasted that money yet. So eventually when they do it, it's going to be a hell of a more efficient spend than the others have.
Melissa Lee
Could we be at a BlackBerry moment? I mean, I don't want to say that we are or that if we're.
Steve Grasso
At a BlackBerry moment for the iPhone, then then there's a lot of other moments. There's a lot of other technology and hardware out there that we're at a BlackBerry moment for as well. I mean, you can't tell me the move to the small screen is over and in fact I think the jony I've news is a total. I think it's total overreaction. If in fact you think this is the beginning of the end for Apple, there's no question. If I also look at all the other market cap increase, look at the Mag 7, all the other names for the most part outside of possibly Google certainly had some issues as well. But you can't tell me the fact that we haven't priced in any AI into Apple in a market where their, their Mega Cap peers have. And ultimately I think it has to go through Apple that's positive, it's not negative and at this point it's in the price.
Craig Moffett
You know, there's been several wearable devices. You know, whether it was the pins or the badges that they tried to come out with or it was a. The grass is.
Steve Grasso
No, I'm kidding.
Melissa Lee
What are you talking about?
Craig Moffett
It's like the wearable pin.
Melissa Lee
Oh really?
Craig Moffett
I think a pin or like not a writing pin, a wearable.
Steve Grasso
Well, that's the Johnny I've clipped.
Craig Moffett
But there's been other iterations of.
Steve Grasso
I don't wear brooches anymore, but when I did, I mean, I can imagine what my Apple one would.
Melissa Lee
Yeah, anyway, it would be cool.
Craig Moffett
Yeah, yeah. Point being, like, I do think there is some truth to eventually all of these AI functions are going to be much more integrated into us as the individual person. And so to completely discount that I think perhaps is swinging too far to the left. Do I see it being an imminent threat? So is it a RIM moment really? Is what we're getting down to? I really don't think it is. If so to Tim's point, if you've got to be looking at social media, you've got to be looking at a whole swath of things that essentially use this phone, smartphone as their engine for.
Melissa Lee
Operations for More on what to expect out of wwdc. Let's bring in Craig Moffitt, partner and senior managing director at Moffitt. Nathan said he's got a seller rating $141 price target on the stock. That is the target among analysts tracked by FactSet. Craig, it's always great to get your take on things, all things Apple especially. Good to see you. The expectations going to WWC are so low and at the same time that is sort of the table setting for a nice upside surprise. I'm just wondering, is there anything that could come out of this conference in your view that could at least allay the fears that Apple is completely behind in AI?
Peter Bookvar
Yeah, I think so. Melissa, I agree with what your panel has been saying that the expectations are really low and, and so that is obviously a better setup than the other way around like we had last year. What I would say though is the one thing that I haven't heard anybody discuss is if you end up having to partner with say a perplexity or, or if you go off device to a cloud based solution like OpenAI, just be aware that the problem with that is that takes off the table the upgrade cycle argument that has been really the driver of the multiple for so long. So you know, remember when they came out of the last WWDC last year the argument was that in order to do agentic AI on your device you're going to need at least 8 gigabytes of memory and you're going to need a neural processor for AI and therefore you're going to have to upgrade, upgrade your device and it's going to accelerate iPhone sales. You don't need an upgrade if you're going to do that, if you're going to do all of that in the cloud. So, so and I think there is real pressure on Apple to find a solution and very likely it's going to have to be a cloud based solution. The, the other end of the, the other extreme isn't good either. Right. That is the deep sea type of model that is so small that it, it can operate on the device without an upgrade either. So they're trying to thread a needle which is it needs to be sufficiently demanding of the device that you have to upgrade your device but not so demanding of the device that they fall behind what can be done in the cloud by their competitors and it's a very, very tight window that they're trying to get through here.
Bono
So Craig, I like, I like your call. I like when you really put it out there being the Lowest on the street because that's really differentiate yourself from the street. But when you look at the headlines coming out of Deep Seek where they were literally had a tailwind behind them because the lack of span. I get what you're saying, but the longer they lag in AI, that's a time decay. You would think that they're due for some sort of success. And I always believe that the upgrade cycle is about the camera. The camera is easier to improve than the rest of the phone.
Peter Bookvar
Well look, if the camera is the upgrade cycle, it's hard to imagine that you get to the accelerated upgrade cycle and one of the. You guys have all been talking about the challenge posed by the high multiple. If you're going to put an upgrade cycle into the multiple in your terminal growth rate assumption, you're assuming that it's not a one time cycle but that you're permanently accelerating the rate at which people refresh phones. And it's been declining now for almost a decade. So you really have to change the way people think about upgrades. And it's going to take something pretty dramatic I think to say no, I need to now start thinking about upgrading my phone every two or three years instead of what it's up to now, which is pushing for the camera's probably not going to do it. I'm not sure whether I agree that being late to the party and I makes it necessarily more efficient because the challenge you get is that Apple's would be competitors in AI and the agents that are out there are starting to define the game in ways that may not be advantageous for Apple. Right. I mean the other bull case for Apple I suppose is they, they develop an agent that you pay $20 a month for and that it's just part of your, your services revenue for Apple. The problem with that is you have people like Manus that are developing their agents and others that are developing agents and if the agent development goes on without Apple for too long, there is a very real risk that that becomes a business that is paid for by advertising and isn't subscription based. Or you have all these different companies with different agendas. I think Meta would say they don't want it to be subscription based, they want it to be advertising based. Probably Google the same. So you have a lot of deep pocketed players that are trying to aim at the same space with very different agendas.
Melissa Lee
Craig, thank you for your time. Great to see you.
Peter Bookvar
My pleasure. Good to talk to you.
Melissa Lee
All right, so let's say that that upgrade cycle is, you know, Muted, let's say almost as there's no reason to upgrade because you don't need a new phone to operate whatever they have on the phone right now, which is not Apple Intelligence. What is stock worth?
Steve Grasso
Oh boy.
Melissa Lee
Well, I mean if we're calling it the stock. Are you assuming an upgrade cycle based on AI?
Steve Grasso
I'm assuming that there is a traditional upgrade cycle. I'm assuming that the AI is not the end all, be all. I think people are going to continue to upgrade their phones and I continue to think that a lack of penetration of AI apps out there, there hasn't been a major engagement with the developer community apps. And when they do, and that's part of what's going on here, it's going to go back through the iPhone and it will lead to more, I think, software and services revenue. So I'm not. Nobody's priced in a crazy upgrade cycle.
Tim Seymour
Well and I think that's why it's come down from its highs.
Steve Grasso
Right.
Tim Seymour
Because everyone was excited about this upgrade cycle that they promised everyone. And that's why you got more sales of this iPhone saying oh, if you buy this one, like don't worry down the line we're going to have some AI, which hasn't happened. And now you're seeing the valuation has come down somewhat on that for that reason. So yes, I mean that, that if that super cycle happens that would increase it. If it happens. I think that's the question we're all trying to figure out which we're losing hope.
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime, a date has been set for the next round of trade talks between the US And China. President Trump posting on Truth Social this afternoon that representatives for the two countries will be meeting in London on Monday. This after a report that China had granted rare earth licenses to suppliers of the three big US Automakers. For the latest, let's bring in Eamon Javers. Eamon.
Eamon Javers
Hey there, Melissa. Yeah, we know where, we know when, we know who it's going to be. Besant, Lutnick and Greer representing the US Side in London on Monday. What we don't know is what they're going to be talking about. The president in the Oval Office yesterday hinting that there had been some agreements discussed between himself and Xi Jinping on that phone call that they had early Thursday morning, but not giving any detail as to what exactly they discussed. The President suggesting that that needed to be finalized by staff in a follow up meeting. This will be that follow up meeting in London. So the question for Wall Street's going to be do they paper some kind of a deal here, even on minor elements that can give you a sense that they are getting traction on some of these trade items? Or is this a meeting to have a meeting and you walk out of it on Monday afternoon with no major headlines suggesting that any progress had been made? I think that's what investors are going to be watching for. It's certainly what folks in Washington are going to be watching for as they monitor that development in London. Melissa. But as of right now, we don't know what the items were that the president suggested might be close to the line here. So we're all going to have to just watch and wait.
Melissa Lee
Eamonn, was there any language out of the White House yesterday that would point to a deal having been made on any level?
Eamon Javers
You know, the president said we have a deal and we're going to finalize that deal, but, you know, if the deal's not finalized, you know, do you really have a deal? Right. I mean, and then why are they.
Melissa Lee
Meeting on Monday if there's a deal? Right.
Eamon Javers
Exactly, exactly. And he's often said, you know, we have a deal and that deal is the tariffs I put in place, and they're on pause right now. And if they want to go back to that deal, they can go back to that deal. Right. So the president is saying he's willing to go back to the higher tariff levels if they don't get some kind of agreement here. But it's clear nothing's finalized or else the talks wouldn't be ongoing, right?
Melissa Lee
Yeah. All right, Eamon, thanks for clarifying. Amy Javers, have a great weekend. You bet. All right. So things are very much up in the air. There is no deal or there is a deal, but it's not the deal that the markets want, which is why we didn't react at all yet.
Steve Grasso
But that's every deal we've had so far in tariffs has been a deal, but it hasn't really, we don't know what the deal is, and it hasn't really been a deal that was fully structured. And I think, I think the deal that was announced by the President yesterday was something along the lines of rare earth. We have some accord. We have some places where we see some progress. There was a discussion. Those are dynamics that I think, first of all, I think communication and the building of dialogue is important, I think leading to the fall of key staffers. She and Trump should not be the people cutting this deal anyway. And I think that's exactly where we're going. I think that's what we got yesterday. And it's consistent with how the White House and the President have talked about deals.
Bono
If you look at it, as long as the dialogue continues, it's positive for the markets. As long as neither side says, I'm done talking. If that happens, the market's down 3 to 5%. As long as there's an ongoing dialogue that's positive.
Melissa Lee
Positive or market neutral?
Courtney Garcia
It's positive.
Melissa Lee
Okay.
Bono
Yeah, I think it's positive because we factored in a lot of the negativity. But watch MP Materials as your barometer to all this. Because it was up for two days. Two days out of five, up 10%.
Melissa Lee
Because no rare earths were coming in.
Bono
Exactly.
Melissa Lee
Always the inverse of what was happening.
Bono
So now all of a sudden, if you start to see those rare earths, that comes down. But if you really think about it, Mountain Pass is the only rare earth in the United States. So this company is valuable regardless. But it is going to be extremely volatile with these talks.
Craig Moffett
This feels like a game that I play with my young kids called Hokey Pokey. And I.
Melissa Lee
Your kids are three and three months and two years.
Craig Moffett
Two years, which clearly is plenty.
Steve Grasso
And sorry, that game is Hokey Pokey.
Craig Moffett
Hokey Pokey where you stick a foot in and then you put the right.
Steve Grasso
Foot in the left foot.
Craig Moffett
And I'm just wondering, like, if you continue to put a foot in and pull a foot out, are you actually marching forward? And to me it seems the answer is no. How many times can we continue to go to the same well where, you know. Okay, well, we're making incremental progress. We have something. We weren't talking. Okay. This actually isn't constitutional. The tariffs must be paused. Or now that now you know you're handicapping my ability to negotiate. To me it just feels like a bit of us running around in circles. And until that's Duck, Duck, Goose, though. Oh, sorry, man.
Melissa Lee
Do the Hokey Pokey and you turn yourself around. That's what it's all about.
Steve Grasso
That's what it's all about. But that's Duck, Duck, Goose, though, I feel like.
Craig Moffett
Well, listen, it sounds like we're just. We're playing all the games right now, is the point. No, no.
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, a Tesla turnaround. What is next for the hard hit EV maker as the stock recovers? Just some of yesterday's big losses. The long term impact of the knockdown drag out brawl between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump. Plus we're taking a look under the hood. Robinhood already doubling in 2025. What is next for this high flyer? Next. More fast money right after this.
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Melissa Lee
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Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Tesla attempted a comeback, stalling out after its worst single day market cap loss in history. Yesterday's drop fueled by a firework filled online feud between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump. Tensions have cooled somewhat since, with Musk even agreeing with the post from hedge funder Bill Ackman, calling for the two to reconcile. Still, the stock recouped less than a quarter of what it lost yesterday and clocked its worst week since October 2023. So. So what do you make of this somewhat anemic rebound?
Steve Grasso
Tim I think before we got into yesterday's game of mutually assured destruction, it was a case where Tesla had traded from360 to320 into yesterday even before. I mean you could make maybe some of this was bubbling up. We already knew he was. There was some discontent, but yesterday's fireworks weren't the beginning of this pullback. And I think you take this back to even Elon, even before he joined the government. So, you know, take it. Try to look at the company in the context of before he joined the government before he left the government. And I think you're left with a company that a lot of people are questioning really whether there is a whole lot to the valuation that's much beyond the hardware. There is absolutely something is, is, is driverless all it's supposed to be? I'm not so sure. To me it's a valuation call. Markets catching wind of that.
Tim Seymour
Yeah. And that's really what I think investors want to see here is some sort of like self driving vehicles, the robo taxis, which we might get some news on here soon. So I think that's what people really want to see because clearly you're not buying it at this kind of valuation just because it's a car company. I mean it trades almost 140 times forward earnings. But I think the trouble comes is that that full self driving, a lot of that will take government regulations. And if he's no longer in as much with the White House, is that actually going to go through as much people thought or will they get pushed out of the future? In which case is this valuation justified? And that's why it went down yesterday more than anything else. And so I think until there's some sort of resolution here, pressure, you're going to continue to see some pressure not.
Melissa Lee
Even in favor with the White House. Now he is an enemy of the White House, which is a much worse position than before the election.
Bono
Yeah, the most powerful thing, as Cor said, was that was the regulatory ace that he could pull out of his deck whenever he wanted it. And there's so many things that he's relying on right now. This. That's why the stock did not bounce back. There's too many wildcards that Trump can drop on him now even as things get smooth out, they both have leverage on each other. Trump needs his, his, his marketplace, needs his media, but he certainly needs the regulatory ace.
Craig Moffett
Yeah, I agree in terms of the trend already being down before yesterday's fireworks of sort, but I really was trying to kind of parse out what was going on on the back of just the happenings yesterday and today and how the market was kind of perceiving that. And so I looked at the options market actually to try to get an idea of what the dailies were doing, the options that were actually expiring today. And the battleground of sorts seemed to be that 290 strike. So as opposed to seeing people play from the upside, some out of the money calls and really expecting to be a robust bounce back, what you saw is people that were actually bullish in aim, looking to take in premium selling downside. And equally on the other side, people being willing to take the bet that some steam was coming out of this. And this traded a wide range from $0.03 to 490. Again that to 90 strike. So at 277,000 in terms of volume versus I think it was 11 or 12,000 of open interest. You're really seeing people make, you know, pretty aggressive bets on on daily options.
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
Steve Grasso
Lululemon going downward dog after a dire warning to investors why prices are stretching higher and whether investors have any hope for finding nirvana in this name. Plus the market's reaction to what our next guest calls a confusing jobs report, why the economy could start to feel real friction from here. You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
If your small business has a problem, you could say, ugh, just my luck. But you should say like a good neighbor, State Farm is there and we'll help get you back in business. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.
Steve Grasso
Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide. And every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nelson Report.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast MONEY to our chart of the week. Now Robinhood surging more than 13% since Monday, setting a record close today. Shares are now up six days in a row and five straight weeks. The crypto craze certainly helps. They're going for higher net worth individuals as well.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, I think the bitstamp acquisition is certainly also a driver for people thinking that this business model is growing. And I think the question is if the market wasn't back to 6,000, would, would, would Hood have performed proportionately, in other words, the beta that it has to the market, which is, I don't know, say 1 point to 1.3 times. In other words, this stock is a function of, of at least a lot of, you know, market dynamics that I think are not necessarily all about fundamentals. I do think that the company has proven they've broadened this business model and it's a much Bigger demo.
Craig Moffett
Agreed. Beta is two and a quarter. I'm just looking. I think somebody had. Right. You are really on, on point there.
Steve Grasso
Well, I was off my beta, but thank you.
Craig Moffett
Well, but I mean, but I think the underlying premise is very, is very spot on in terms of is this kind of like just riding the wave higher now? I do think their core cohort of retail traders is strong and I think the crypto craze definitely helps that. I actually have concerns about them essentially trying to grow into a full service financial institution. I think that you'll likely see a lower multiple based on that. I think the attrition, them having to kind of like promote and spin in order to attract that user base I think will be a bit costly. I think they're in a nice niche. I understand the need to grow, but I would expect some multiple compression if they are going to to grow into a much larger player, so to speak.
Tim Seymour
And we're coming off a time right now. When you look at after Liberation Day, it's been retail investors who have been buying this debt more so than institutional investors, which is going to benefit like a Robin Hood because you're going to see more trading activity happening from the retail side of things. But I do agree Bond 1 brings up a good point. Is the valuation trading about 6, 60 times forward earnings. So the question is if you're going to have that kind of volatility and be at least at this point in time, it is a lot more transactional and things like cryptocurrency which are going to be more volatile, does it justify that over the long run? And that's, that's what gives me the pause here.
Bono
It's become a trusted name. When, when this stock first came out, people didn't trust it because it was a new name. You didn't want to bring money there. Now they, they entice people to bring over 401k money. Their user growth is growing. Stellar earnings, crypto gold, everything you can slice into the financial system they are servicing people on. So the user growth I think is what they're getting paid for. Now I get a little bit nervous when you look at the stock chart. This has had a meteoric rise. So I'd probably take a little chips off the table right now. But remember, if it gets added hundreds.
Melissa Lee
Of funds and P500 which correct the.
Bono
Rumor, hundreds of funds have to buy it and it's already had that long run. But you probably get a further elongated.
Melissa Lee
Bounce coming up, a better than expected jobs report boosting stocks and the week, but is a reaction justified? Weekly Financials Peter Bockvar joins us next to make sense of what he calls a confusing report. Stay tuned.
Steve Grasso
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the Go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Stocks jumping to end the week on the back of a stronger than expected jobs report. The Dow jumping 443 points, the S&P crossing above 6,000 for the first time since late February, and the Nasdaq locking in its fourth positive day in five. Meanwhile, Omada Health surging in its debut here at the NASDAQ, the health care tech company jumping as much as 42% in its IPO close up over 20%. Plus Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation surging after President Trump this afternoon signed an executive order aimed at speeding the development of electric air taxis and drone tech. And check out the XBI Biotech ETF, up almost 2% today. It's up more than 20% since early April. When the chartmaster Carter Braxton Worth said to buy this group today, he's saying it is time to harvest those gains. Well, one top investor is questioning the Street's enthusiastic, drastic response to the jobs report. CNBC contributor Peter Bookvar is chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Peter, good to have you with us. Were you surprised at the market reaction? The market seems to want to believe the best case scenario here.
Courtney Garcia
Well, it was interesting. Once that data hit the S and P futures went up like 50 points. And I'm going through the numbers and bonds sold off too. So I'm trying to square our stocks celebrating maybe weakness because when you include the revisions. But then what's the bond market looking at? So there wasn't really a clear message with the 10 year closing at 4.5%. So I was somewhat confused. I'm a little more clear on the actual number. If you take the down order revisions of 95,000 compared to what the market saw at 829, we really only added 44,000 fresh jobs because of the number itself minus the revision. Then you had the household survey that fell almost 700,000. You had the highest number of people working part time that want full time work since April 2019. But then you had wage growth that was good. So there were a lot of cross currents. But I think overall the pace of job hiring is slowing. I would not ignore what ADP also said on Wednesday. But the bond market is resiliently higher in terms of yields because they don't believe that the Fed is going to really cut and even if the Fed cuts that doesn't mean long rates markets fall in conjunction with that.
Melissa Lee
So overall it sounds like you're reluctantly acknowledging that the data right now is supportive of where we are in the markets.
Courtney Garcia
The data to me still remains very uneven if the pockets of strength with upper income spending, anything related to AI spend and up until we'll see what this budget looks like. Government spending has been a massive support to economic growth over the past couple of years but that rate of change is about to slow. On the weakness side, we know manufacturing is in a recession. Lower to middle income consumers are stretched pace of existing home sales at 30 year lows with the population more than 25% higher. So it's very mixed from what I'm seeing.
Melissa Lee
So the rubber is going to hit the road.
Courtney Garcia
Yeah. And then we'll have to see what the impact is in the back half of the year with tariffs because we know businesses, not me saying it's what they're saying dealing with all the stress and juggling so many balls with tariffs. If you are, you know, getting stuff.
Melissa Lee
From overseas, are you optimistic about a China deal which supposedly was reached yesterday but apparently is not reached because it's the same deal as before and there might be another deal in the coming.
Courtney Garcia
I don't even know what a deal is going to look like and when you look at the one in 2018 where they're just going to buy more soybeans and LNG, is it going to be any different? I don't know. So I don't know what one looks like but I think both sides saw their pain points, us on rare earths, them on technology, among other things, us with small businesses getting stuff from their manufacturers, their manufacturing base, wanting to sell it to us. So where this sells out, I don't know, but I don't know.
Steve Grasso
I thought the bond market reaction was more interesting than the equities and I know you, you've kind of said that you at least saw both sides of it. They were inconsistent because arguably the expectations were it was going to be a weak number. So if anything I think bond expectations were and the negative here is that the move to 450 gets you back to a place where you're near on a breakout on the ten year. Not you know, but and for the right reasons or not. In other words, if the 10 year was only around 439 going into this print on fear of a weak number the market is positioning for and I think the economic news could have been arguing for less buoyancy on the economy but more concern on long rates. So it's a long way of saying I thought the bond market's reaction would be concerning if you're an equity investor that thinks because hey look, I want to see the bond market sell off. In other words, yields go higher on economic strength. But this wasn't that strong.
Courtney Garcia
Right. There is a global aversion to taking much duration risk. We're seeing that in Japan, we saw it in the uk. The bond police are driving around global bond market neighborhoods looking for those countries that need to issue a lot of bonds and that have too much debt. And I do think to your point it is very noteworthy that bond response today to what was under the hood, a softer jobs number. But it is a global thing. Investors don't want to lend money to governments that are over indebted for 30 years years or 10 years for that matter. So I think that this is a multi year situation that we're in. We had a 40 year bull market in bonds with lower interest rates and we're a few years into this bond bear market and I don't think you can just look at US growth and inflation and then come up with a 10 year yield. There's a broader global thing going on here with sovereign bonds.
Melissa Lee
So 6,000 is an important level that we've crossed once again today to the upside. Where are we at the end of the year in your view given all this backdrop and given the uncertainty? And I know that's a very unfair question because even companies can't give an outlook. But what's your outlook for the markets?
Steve Kovac
You got one.
Courtney Garcia
Anyway, all I'm confident in for the rest of the year is that international markets are going to continue to outperform U.S. markets. The foreigners are rethinking the amount at which they want to own US assets. So that that reallocation outside the US is going to be reflected in a weak dollar and where the S and P goes I don't know. But international markets, this outperformance is not just a 1/4 thing, it's potentially a multi year thing.
Melissa Lee
All right, Peter, thank you. Great to see you both far bleakly. What do you think Courtney?
Tim Seymour
I mean it's definitely. There's a lot of mixed data here but I think this is still going back to the soft data versus the hard data. And the hard data still hasn't fallen off here. And I think one important measure that came out which markets were optimistic to see was the fact that wages have been rising and that is enabling consumers to continuing to spend even with inflation and which hopefully is coming down here. But even if tariffs kick in, that's what, that's why the consumer is holding up. So I think that's why markets are positive here. But you have to continue to watch and see how it comes out in the future.
Melissa Lee
Amiga trades still win.
Steve Grasso
Nice to hear Peter concurring on Mega. I also think you know Gary Cohn, first of all, he was fantastic yesterday and not only was he fantastic because he was a calm voice and a crazy afternoon like the mega trade, but he liked the mega trade. But one thing he said as related to the tax bill that he's very confident is going to get through in some capacity, we're going to balance this budget is, is that in 2018 when this deal went through, the amount of foreign participation in our market picked up. In other words, there was a very strong rally in here and I think some of that really was again, it was great is why he said it would be a disaster if they couldn't settle this thing. But ultimately some of the structural reasons for investing in the ocean US economy I just think Europe's actually addressing those things themselves. I think part of this is less anti US than Europe's been forced to actually stimulate their own economy, be less regulatory, be less predatory in terms of fiscal austerity. That's why you want to own it.
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a high energy Friday for stocks beaten down sector coming to life today and leading the market higher. But are the gains here to stay? Plus Lulu pulls a muscle. The athleisure stocks strained after a big warning in its earnings report report. Will the cracks spread to the rest of the consumer space? We'll debate that right after this. Welcome back to Fast Money. The energy sector leading the S and P today. The xle up nearly 2% up for the first week in three. The group though still down about 3% in 2025. The stocks helping fuel today's gains. APA Kotera, Halliburton, Devon Energy, EOG Energy Resources, all with solid moves higher. Steve?
Bono
Yeah, I think people overestimated the chances for a recession. These jobs numbers today probably put that into question. I still think there's a major lid on the price of oil which is going to get in the way of large integrated names. Saudis are upping production by the tune of 411,000 barrels per day. OPEC upping production. There's so many headwinds right now. I would probably just play this really carefully in the energy space.
Craig Moffett
So speaking of energy, I know Tim also often talks about how airlines are some of the greatest trading stocks. I think if you look at some of the renewable names and you look at some of the uranium names, these are also presenting a tremendous opportunity for you to trade in and out. I would say renewables just in the last two weeks have probably had moves upwards of 30 to 35%. So I think that's just like another trading vehicle that you should look at tangentially to your to your OPEC related servicers and integrated one of the first.
Steve Grasso
The couple sectors that outperformed again all the things we talked about Peter Bocvar were hey, at better economic strength. Energy was one of them and it was a case where I think we priced in GDP contraction in the energy sector in addition to supply dynamics. But the demand dynamics were out there and I think that was part I think they're oversold. I also think fundamentals at $65 oil, I think the big integrators look good. I like Chevron, I like Exxon and.
Tim Seymour
I think longer term too. I mean the supply and demand constraints here, especially as AI continues to have the kind of demand that it does, there's not enough energy to go around. So you're seeing this with some things like Metta and Constellation Energy earlier like that was earlier this week that we had saw that news. But you're good. It's kind of an all hands on deck when it comes to energy. So yes, it might trade here on some short term news, but long term I think is absolutely a play you want to be in.
Melissa Lee
All right, coming up, Lulu loser stock getting slammed on the back of a dire earnings warning. What this name had to do to get back in shape. Next, more Fast Money into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Lululemon plunging nearly 20% its worst day since 2020. On the back of rough results from the Taylor last night. Lulu beating estimates on the top and bottom line, but cutting its full year earnings guidance citing tariff uncertainty and a cautious US consumer. The CFO saying the brand is planning strategic price increases to help offset the tariff impact. They're assuming 30% tariffs from China goods and 10% on the rest of the goods. And that's sort of causing this whole.
Tim Seymour
Concern about Lulu and tariffs are the concern that I think they're elating here. But I think the other issue is you're seeing that consumers are spending less on athleisure, especially post Covid but they just really have a competition problem. People aren't going to Lululemon as much as like your Your Vori is in your athletics and kind of they have a lot of competition right now. And I think that's the bigger question is if the tariffs do get resolved, can they still bring back their consumer? And I think that's what people are trying to figure out right now.
Melissa Lee
Jefferies, which has been right on this name dead on. Econic.
Steve Grasso
Great job.
Melissa Lee
The brand is rolling over as competition is rising. Big problem.
Steve Grasso
Yeah. And it's. And another analyst out there is calling this a show me story now. And that's a fair way to put it too, because they were given the benefit of the doubt. They were given the benefit for leadership. They were deserving of a multiple. Now they're talking about different things that are supposed to get you excited about the competitive landscape. I mean, this. This align. No line legging. I mean, has me excited. I mean. I mean, I have to tell you, lines could be. Who wants that line on the legging?
Melissa Lee
I mean, you know, you mean, like, literally, like, it's seamless?
Steve Grasso
I don't know what it is. It's just what I read. I mean, I know. I mean, I'm heard product launches.
Melissa Lee
I mean, you know, chief, like, course. All right, up next, final trades. Welcome back to Fast Money. We should note that we had the best time last night at our Fast Money live event right here at the nasdaq. It was great to meet some of our loyal fans. We got to snack in some of New York's best eats. I think there's Nathan's hot dogs.
Steve Grasso
Nathan's hot dogs. Krispy Kreme donuts. J and J snack. The food was almost as good as the company. These people were amazing. It was really fun.
Melissa Lee
It was very nice to meet you all. And we'll let you know when the next one is. Time for the final trade. Let's go around the horn. Tim Seymour.
Steve Grasso
Yeah. First things first. We have always a good run of pages here from the NBC page program. Another superstar, Asa Lawson. Asa, give it up. Where is he? Can we get the camera on Asa?
Melissa Lee
There he is.
Bono
Nice.
Steve Grasso
He had a smile every day while.
Bono
He had to leave his own.
Steve Grasso
Yeah, he's one of the best. And we appreciate you, Asa. So final trade. I think we talked about energy. I think the European integrated look. Most interesting TTE total energy bottom brown Forman.
Craig Moffett
That I do. The divergence that I'm seeing here between this name and the discretionary names is really a cause of concern. No real need to jump in and catch a falling ice. Yeah.
Melissa Lee
Courtney, the xle.
Tim Seymour
I do like the energy story here. I think is something you want to play, especially in the long run. So I'd take a look at this.
Steve Kovac
Steve Know the EV car company that's.
Bono
The least reliant on federal subsidies? Lucid? No, because they should have picked Rivian lucid. And I like the Saudi backstop.
Melissa Lee
All right, thanks for watching Fast Good luck. ASA Mad Money starts right now.
Tim Seymour
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Melissa Lee
Online doesn't mean learning alone. You'll get dedicated support from people who care about your success. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.
CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary Episode: Apple’s WWDC On Deck… And A Jobs Report Head Scratcher (June 6, 2025)
Introduction Hosted by Melissa Lee, "Fast Money" brings together top traders and market experts to dissect the day's most impactful financial news. In this episode, the discussion centers around Apple's upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), the evolving U.S.-China trade dynamics, Tesla's stock performance amid high-profile feuds, Lululemon's earnings challenges, Robinhood's market surge, the mixed reactions to the latest jobs report, and movements within the energy sector.
Apple is gearing up for its WWDC, positioned as a pivotal moment for the tech giant to reset investor confidence amidst a challenging year marked by stock declines and strategic uncertainties.
Current Stock Performance: Apple shares have risen over 1.5% on the day, marking the first back-to-back weekly gains since mid-February. Despite this, the stock remains down nearly 19% for the year, losing over $700 billion in market cap due to factors like China tariff fears and a sluggish outlook for the latter half of 2025.
WWDC Expectations: The consensus anticipates a "make or break" event where Apple could realign its strategies, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), which has been a significant point of concern.
Steve Kovac [03:34]: “Apple's WWDC is Apple's chance to have a reset moment and show investors it has a path to get things back on course.”
AI Partnership Prospects: There is speculation about Apple potentially announcing new AI partnerships to rejuvenate its AI capabilities. Possible integrations with models like Google's Gemini or Perplexity could signal a strategic pivot.
Steve Kovac [03:55]: “They might announce a partnership that's ready, which could help fill in the gaps.”
Analyst Perspectives: While some panelists like Steve Grasso express skepticism about Apple’s valuation, citing a 28x forward multiple as unjustified without tangible AI advancements, others like Bono and Craig Moffett see potential for upside if strategic partnerships materialize.
Steve Grasso [04:50]: “I doubt these developments alone justify the 28 times forward multiple.”
Bono [05:35]: “Apple was up 2 to 3% within the first week and outperformed a month out.”
The episode delves into the scheduled U.S. and Chinese trade discussions in London, highlighting the uncertainty and potential market impacts of these negotiations.
Scheduled Meeting: U.S. representatives Besant, Lutnick, and Greer are set to engage with their Chinese counterparts on Monday. The focus is on whether these talks will culminate in a tangible trade agreement or remain inconclusive.
Eamon Javers [17:32]: “We don't know what they're going to be talking about or if they will finalize any deals.”
Market Sentiment: Market reactions remain muted, with investors awaiting clear outcomes from the negotiations. Positive dialogue continuity is seen as market-friendly, whereas stalemates could dampen investor confidence.
Bono [20:31]: “As long as the dialogue continues, it's positive for the markets.”
Tesla's recent stock volatility is attributed to a high-profile conflict between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump, reflecting broader concerns about regulatory and market uncertainties.
Stock Movement: After experiencing its worst single-day market cap loss in history, Tesla's stock showed a modest recovery but remains under pressure, closing the week with its most significant dip since October 2023.
Steve Grasso [24:40]: “The stock recouped less than a quarter of what it lost yesterday and clocked its worst week since October 2023.”
Leadership Tensions: The ongoing feud between Musk and Trump creates additional volatility, with potential regulatory threats looming over Tesla's autonomous vehicle initiatives.
Tim Seymour [08:30]: “If he doesn't integrate AI effectively, someone like OpenAI could take over, impacting Tesla’s valuation.”
Future Outlook: Analysts are divided, with some anticipating continued stock pressure unless Tesla can demonstrate tangible advancements in self-driving technology and resolve leadership conflicts.
Steve Grasso [25:26]: “It's a valuation call. Markets catching wind of that.”
Lululemon faced a sharp decline in its stock price following a cautious earnings report that highlighted tariff uncertainties and a hesitant U.S. consumer base.
Earnings Report: Despite beating estimates on revenue and earnings, Lululemon cut its full-year guidance, citing 30% tariffs on Chinese goods and 10% on others, alongside plans for strategic price increases.
Tim Seymour [43:29]: “Consumers are spending less on athleisure post-COVID, and competition is intensifying.”
Stock Impact: Shares plunged nearly 20%, its worst day since 2020, as investors reacted to the cautious outlook and heightened competitive pressures.
Steve Grasso [43:58]: “Lululemon is experiencing how competition is strengthening and affecting their market position.”
Analyst Commentary: Analysts like those from Jefferies have predicted this downturn, noting that increased competition and tariff pressures are critical risk factors for the brand.
Robinhood's stock has surged by over 13% since early June, bolstered by the sustained cryptocurrency interest and strategic business expansions.
Stock Performance: The platform has seen a record close, with shares up five straight weeks, driven by its acquisition of Bitstamp and targeting higher net worth individuals.
Steve Grasso [29:04]: “Robinhood has proven they've broadened their business model and have a much bigger demographic.”
Growth Strategy: The focus on diversifying services and tapping into the crypto market has positioned Robinhood as a robust player, although concerns about long-term sustainability and regulatory scrutiny remain.
Craig Moffett [30:03]: “Their core cohort of retail traders is strong, and the crypto craze definitely helps.”
Valuation Considerations: While the stock's meteoric rise is attractive, some panelists advise caution regarding its high valuation and potential for multiple compression if the company attempts to expand beyond its niche.
Bono [31:17]: “I'd probably take a few chips off the table right now, but there's potential for further gains.”
The latest jobs report presents a mixed bag of economic indicators, leading to varied interpretations among market experts.
Jobs Data Analysis: Although headline numbers suggest strength, deeper analysis reveals only modest job additions and significant declines in the household survey, indicating potential underlying economic weaknesses.
Courtney Garcia [34:43]: “The data remains very uneven with upper-income spending holding up, but manufacturing is in recession.”
Stock and Bond Markets: The Dow and S&P saw notable gains, while the bond market remained resilient despite the softer jobs numbers, reflecting global aversion to duration risk and sovereign bond concerns.
Steve Grasso [36:22]: “The bond market's reaction was more interesting than the equities.”
Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing uncertainty as investors weigh strong wage growth and consumer spending against slowing job growth and potential impacts from tariffs.
Peter Bookvar [38:23]: “International markets are likely to continue outperforming U.S. markets, reflecting a weak dollar and reallocation of assets.”
Energy stocks led the recent market gains, driven by strategic moves from key players and ongoing OPEC production adjustments.
Sector Performance: The Energy sector (XLE) rose nearly 2% for the week, with companies like APA Kotera, Halliburton, Devon Energy, and EOG Energy Resources seeing solid gains despite the sector being down 3% for the year.
Bono [40:56]: “People overestimated the chances for a recession. Jobs numbers put that into question.”
OPEC Production: Increased production from Saudi Arabia and OPEC poses headwinds for energy prices, although renewable energy investments continue to present new opportunities.
Craig Moffett [41:24]: “Renewables have had moves upwards of 30 to 35% in the last two weeks, presenting trading opportunities.”
Long-Term Outlook: Experts like Tim Seymour and Craig Moffett advocate for cautious engagement in the energy sector, emphasizing the potential long-term benefits despite short-term volatility.
Tim Seymour [42:21]: “Long-term, energy remains a play you want to be in due to supply and demand constraints.”
Conclusion The episode of "Fast Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of several critical market movements and corporate strategies. Apple's WWDC event stands out as a potential turning point, contingent on its ability to navigate AI advancements and global trade tensions. Concurrently, geopolitical developments, particularly U.S.-China trade talks, continue to cast uncertainty over market conditions. Tesla's fluctuating stock underscores the impact of executive conflicts on investor sentiment, while Lululemon and Robinhood exemplify the diverse outcomes of corporate earnings and strategic pivots. The mixed signals from the latest jobs report add another layer of complexity, emphasizing the importance of nuanced economic indicators. Finally, the energy sector's resilience amidst OPEC's production strategies highlights the ongoing interplay between traditional energy markets and emerging renewable opportunities.
Notable Quotes:
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed by the participants are solely their own and do not reflect those of CNBC, NBC Universal, or their affiliates. This summary is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.