
Financial stocks getting hit in today’s session, with the likes of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all taking it on the chin. And one of our traders is seeing even more pain in one section of the trade. Plus Alibaba surging more than 60% this year, and it’s only February! The latest earnings results that had investors boosting that name even higher, and how it could impact the broader China trade. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Brian Sullivan
Live from the NASDAQ market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's ahead this hour. Financial flop, bank stock investors taking it on the chin today. Some big names seeing their worst drop in months. Walmart getting walloped. It rolled back its stock price but it's had an epic run. So what's the real story around Walmart? Plus, Baba's bounce gets bigger.
Tim Seymour
Wow. Alliteration.
Brian Sullivan
Meaty, beaty, big and bouncy. Palantir cashes out to its worst two day run in over a year. And cruise talks. Tim?
Tim Seymour
Yes, how about them?
Brian Sullivan
They got docked.
Tim Seymour
They got docked.
Brian Sullivan
They got docked. I am Brian Sullivan in for Melissa Lee tonight. And as always, we are coming to you live from Studio B at the Nasdaq. And on your desk tonight, Mr. Tim Seymour, Karen Fineman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. Good to see I have not been here.
Tim Seymour
Let's clap him now.
Karen Finerman
This is the first time since that new show. By the way, can we start by saying the show with you and Kelly is fantastic.
Brian Sullivan
It's one of the top 12 or 13 shows on the network.
Karen Finerman
Without question. You compliment each other extraordinarily well and I'm happy for both of you.
Brian Sullivan
I don't know where this is going. He's so nice.
Tim Seymour
What?
Brian Sullivan
I'm handsome guy, dummy. Thank you. All right, let's, he's always like the live show is already sold out. Let's kick it all off with your money today. And let's be honest, it wasn't a great one. Walmart posted its worst day in more than a year. We're going to dig in more on Walmart in just a second because up first tonight a big bank breakdown. Financials the worst performing of the sector today. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Citigroup, all down. In fact, Goldman Sachs guy, your old company single handedly cutting 180 points off the Dow. JPM lopped off another 76. But the real interesting action, I mean if you really want to get under that hood, look at some of the more M and A focused names. I'm talking, Tim, about the Mollison companies. I'm talking about the Evercore, I'm talking about the Lazard. President Trump signaling this week that he would keep strict Joe Biden era merger guidelines in place. Karen, we'll kick it off with you because you actually pointed out this action earlier today.
Dan Nathan
Yeah. So all the banks got hit but they seem to be getting hit differently. And the ones that did seem to have big M And A businesses seem to be getting hurt more. I think it was on the heels of that they've had a big run though. Part of the story that's been, that's made the bank such a good place to be is not only obviously regulation and you know, a pro business environment, but the idea that M and A would be coming back with a vengeance, that it'd be easier to get deals done and who, who really benefits from that? The big ones that got hit the hardest. I still think the bank story is intact. Although the first quarter looks like first quarter M and A will be disappointing and maybe it'll continue to be disappointing, but all of those other things are true. Asset wealth management is great. I think debt and equity markets will be great and I think the economy is doing well. So I'm sticking with the banks. I definitely have less money today than I had yesterday, but that's okay.
Brian Sullivan
You're going to be just fine, guy. Here's the thing. We're very, we're in tv, we're very simple folk. We like to say big words like banks, but all banks are not created equal.
Tim Seymour
I like how he's drawing you into this, by the way. You're part of the week here.
Brian Sullivan
He's very part of the week. And intelligent, by the way.
Tim Seymour
Of course.
Brian Sullivan
Both are true, both are true, both are true. But you know what else is true? Evercore, Molis and Lazard make their money in very different ways than Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and others. And I think the market figured that out a little, a little bit today.
Karen Finerman
Although first of all, I can't explain a lot of the things I see.
Tim Seymour
What you did there. Meaty bitty big and Bounce, first song on the album.
Karen Finerman
But I'll say this, I thought MC should have been down more given the run that it's had and given the fact that we traded up the levels we last saw in 2021. If the crack staff wants to put up a chart, you'll see what I mean. In terms of Goldman Sachs, we're basically just where this is something Karen will say a lot. We're just where we were a week or so ago in terms of the stock because it's had a monumental run. What I also say though is, you know, a lot of the enthusiasm around the banks is based on exactly what we led the show with. So maybe a little the bloom is off the rose, but I think certain banks are intact. And I'll say the city, which hangs in there like a champ is think it's still a place you want to be Brian.
Tim Seymour
You know, look, the activity today was, was disappointing for banks but I would say the kids are all right. I mean you've got a case here where deregulation was part of the theme. Banks are actually giving capital back. You know, as much as you hear Biden era regulation certainly around M and A and yes that could throw you back a notch. But what we've seen in terms of the rerating the banks, it hasn't really necessarily been to me that their M and A business was going to go soaring. It's that the core business that they do have which is a steeper yield curve, net interest income, more credit dynamics. The world is, seems to be awash in liquidity and regulation is, is, is their friend. In other words, lack of regulation is their friend. To me if you think something changed through that rhetoric then you've been investing in the.
Brian Sullivan
That is it.
Tim Seymour
It's not. Nothing changed.
Brian Sullivan
Nothing. Nothing changed.
Tim Seymour
They had a good run. Cameras. Right. These are banks that have had a good run. If you wanted a reason to sell a headline, this was a good headline. It didn't change the investment profile of banks who might.
Brian Sullivan
Something changed.
Guy Adami
Who's next?
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, you're different album.
Tim Seymour
Yeah, but it's a good album too. 71 so we'll look that up.
Brian Sullivan
I'd like to get to the last see what his opinion.
Guy Adami
Right. He doesn't have the last time J.P. morgan was down more than 4% it was on September 10th. And I think it's really interesting because again they had, I think they were speaking at a conference the CEO and he guided net interest margins lower than expected. I remember us talking about that a lot. Right. So think about this. The 10 year yield was like 3, 6, 5 back then and we have now the 10 year yield at 4 and a half. Wouldn't you think that that is one of the reasons why the stock has appreciated so much over the last call it five months or so. And when I think about what Tim just said is like that was a headline. It was more geared towards the investment banks. Make no mistake about it. I mean JP Morgan is right up there with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs now tier one sort of investment bank. And you look at this as a money center bank also you would think that they'd be benefiting from this. Right. So it really says to me that the stock was 216 back then. It was 267 or something like that. Just yesterday people were looking for an excuse to sell these things. I mean that's as simple as it gets. And we're seeing that in other parts of the market, I guess.
Brian Sullivan
What's Dan, what's the relationship between investing in these companies and 10 year bond yields?
Guy Adami
Well, the net interest, you know, is.
Dan Nathan
Really some of the yield curve, steepness of the yield. Right. And how JP Morgan's positioned for bank of America.
Guy Adami
That's a whole other, it's a whole other story.
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, let's go into the M and A banks first. Yeah, well, it's important they would benefit from lower, lower, lower rates, I would think. Well, private equity money sloshing around, you think so?
Guy Adami
But we haven't seen meaningful M and A A so far. And maybe you could say, well, the inauguration was just, you know, a month ago and that sort of thing. And I don't know what the IPO pipeline looks like. We keep hearing about this huge backlog. We keep hearing about, you know, a lot of the, you know, intent for strategic M and A. We know that private equity wants to do stuff. So again, I mean we got to see how things, you know, kind of start going.
Tim Seymour
I just feel like if, if you're worried about banks, you would be worried about the labor market, you'd be worried about the consumer, you'd be worried about credit. You know, what we heard out of jobless claims, what we heard out of Wal Mart. I mean I think you can see for miles that this is a case where the consumer is in a pretty good spot and therefore there's no reason to run out the door on banks. Hey, take some profits. But I think this is working tonight.
Brian Sullivan
Run out of songs for the A blocks over. Final word on the banks Guy Adami.
Karen Finerman
Well, I mean you should, I think, be a little concerned about the consumer. We talked about it last night. Delinquencies are up in a pretty meaningful way that nobody seems to be talking about. Again, a lot of this is predicated on an employment picture. Looks great below the surface of things to be concerned about. With all that said, I do think certain banks are really interesting. Goldman Sachs, you buy the sell off and Citibank I think gets to 90 before it gets to 75.
Brian Sullivan
It's the 90 before 75. All right, banks are down. Let's get back to Wal Mart. Wal Mart stock having a bad day, down about 7%. Wal Mart telling investors that profit growth likely to slow this year. In fact, Walmart, Walmart was the worst performing stock in the Dow today, at least on a percentage basis. How justified was this pullback, Dan, on Walmart, when, let's be clear, Wal Mart Is pretty known for setting the bar low so they can beat the bar later.
Guy Adami
Yeah. And you know what? Bar rallied a lot. I mean this stock doubled in the last year. Right. And so it's trading at value. We talked about it last night before the print is trading at valuations that a lot of retail investors, you know, had probably a difficult time, you know, digesting. But the stock kept on working and working and it kept on working relative to a lot of its compet. And when you think about it, more than half their sales come from grocery and there's some interesting dynamics as it relates to inflation and the sort of folks that were coming in there and why they kept on coming in there and what they were able to kind of upsell or whatever. I would also add that, you know, E Commerce growth disappointed a little bit on a, you know, on a quarter over quarter basis. Right. It decelerated a little bit and they gave weaker than expected guidance. So the stock was up in a straight line over the last three weeks or something like that. I think it gained more than 10%. So it's given half of that back.
Dan Nathan
I thought the quarter was great, actually. I think so. That was story. I own the stock. I owned it going in. It was expensive, you know, it was very expensive.
Brian Sullivan
You sell it today?
Dan Nathan
No, definitely not. I think that the quarter was really good. And what Dan talked about was the guidance. To me the guidance seemed to be sandbagging somewhat. Why not say we don't know what's going to happen with tariffs? Because they don't. Right. Why not say let's be a little conservative because we don't know how things are playing out. And that's what they did. And I think that as good as the quarter was, and I thought it was very good, this just wasn't enough to keep the momentum. And then on a day like this, you know, at one point it was down maybe four, four and a half bucks. The call was really good, I thought. And then when the market sort of went, it went down another, I don't know, three bucks. So very bad day long. Wal Mart, which I am.
Tim Seymour
But yeah, you've been on the magic bus, Brian, if you've been riding this stock. And I think it's a case where if you listen to what they told us, SGA as a percentage of sales was. Was higher. And so this has been a margin improvement story that's been part of that ride on that magic bus. In other words, this has been a margin improvement story for this isn't a growth company. It's not a tech company. It's been a margin story because they made major investments into technology, into infrastructure, into their digital. The good news is we heard stuff their, their higher income cohort is alive and well. People still like to go in there and find value and convenience in a group that's making more than $100,000 a year. That's fantastic for Wal Mart and the other part of it is 30% of their digital sales people are actually taking on the higher delivery cost, the convenience factor. That's high margin. Again, this, this is not a bad, it's not a bad number. This shouldn't have gone what, shouldn't have done what it did.
Brian Sullivan
A huge number of people buying off their phones. You would say they're going mobile. For more on Wal Mart's numbers, let's bring in somebody who knows something about Wal Mart. That is Bill Simon. He is the former CEO of Walmart usa. He's now on Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman of Hanes Brands. Bill, you just heard this conversation. What was your take on Walmart's quarter and more importantly its guidance?
Bill Simon
Yeah, you know, I'm just a lowly retailer, right? What do I know? It's, you know, I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know, you got to have some magic dust. I mean, I don't know how you could have done much better for the quarter. I actually thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that as somebody just mentioned, really nobody knows what's going to happen with tariffs and they were still that confident to, you know, to continue to show a plus four, to call for a plus four next year and, and growing profit faster than sales to continue to develop leverage. So all in all a good quarter.
Brian Sullivan
I think what, what happened the Mexico and China tariffs are delayed. What happens if. And it's a huge if. And I know that, I want to be very clear, I have no idea. Maybe one guy in the planet that knows exactly what might happen if we get those tariffs. What happens to Walmart stock?
Bill Simon
Nothing, you know, because ultimately the consumer decides whether there's a tariff or not. Are they going to buy the product or are they not going to buy the product or you know, there's a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa in case. So where there's no tariff with a big company like Wal Mart, you know, the big guys, Wal Mart Costco, Target, Amazon, those guys have the supply chain and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by, you know, redirecting the product, bringing it in from different places, developing their own private labels. Those guys will figure out tariffs. I'm not really worried about that impact. I would say, you know, with their guidance, they don't know. So it's hard for them to, to build it in. But the fact that they gave, you know, guidance of a, you know, sales increase of A, of 4 and A, and a profit increase growing faster than their rate of sales in that uncertain environment, to me is a very, very positive indicator of the consumer.
Karen Finerman
Yeah, Bill, I know you watch this show and you're on it often, so thank you. You also know, collectively, we've been extraordinarily bullish of Wal Mart for a while. What we were saying last night is, though, given the valuation they really needed to knock the COVID off the ball, which it was a great quarter, not good enough. I guess the question to you is, you know, what is a reasonable valuation for Wal Mart given they're operating better than anybody right now in the entire space?
Bill Simon
Well, if you like Wal Mart, if you like what they're doing, which is building a digital business and sort of reshaping the company, they reported operating income for the year of around 29 billion. That's about what they earned 10 years ago in operating income. But they did it 10 years ago on 450 billion and now they're doing it on 650 billion because they're building this digital business. If you like that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it's 6 or 7% cheaper than it was yesterday. If you don't like it, you know, you probably still don't like it.
Dan Nathan
Bill, it's Karen, thanks for being on. So a lot of times when you're on, we talk about the Target Wal Mart disparity, and so look at those earnings today. We know obviously Target doesn't have the grocery ability that Wal Mart does, but some of the other categories were good. What's your read through to Target?
Bill Simon
Well, I actually think I'm hopeful that it's encouraging for Target as well. You know, they've obviously they've struggled because they don't have the food mix. But when you break down the category, category by category, the results over the last couple of years have been remarkably similar. They've been up and, you know, up where Wal Mart's up and down where Wal Mart's down, but their mix doesn't net it out the same way. And Wal Mart's report of general merchandise growth for the second consecutive quarter after a couple of really awful years is really encouraging from both, you know, a broad consumer perspective and for, you know, a general merchant like Target. So I'm optimistic for Target as well. I'm hopeful anyway.
Brian Sullivan
I do wonder if Walmart still charged in that quarter for coffee in their waiting room. If you go to see Wal Mart, it was famous. You'd go to Bentonville and what do you would charge you?
Dan Nathan
What do you wait while you're pitching?
Brian Sullivan
Well, yeah, all the salespeople would go down there and they would. I know that because my wife's at consumer products. They were kind of, they were famous for being that concerned. Maybe that was a Bill Simon invention. Bill, we appreciate it. Thank you very much. So here's the thing, Karen, as an owner of Walmart and you asked the right question obviously about Target. Do you worry about the valuation though?
Dan Nathan
Yes, I do.
Brian Sullivan
Because Walmart's not a cheap stock.
Dan Nathan
No, no, it's not. It's not. And you know, one point, Walmart was so cheap relative to Amazon that hasn't, you know, that differential's gone. I don't know how much to value AWS for. It's not cheap. But I think I like what they're doing. I like the momentum and I think they were lowballing their earnings, you know.
Karen Finerman
Brian 25, for a long time people have wanted to try to substitute Target for Wal Mart and that's been the wrong trade. But as we've come to learn, it's not my generation's Wal Mart. So I think you're looking for a place to buy this stock, Tim, not sell it. And I got two in there as opposed to your job.
Tim Seymour
But you, But I tell you what, I think you're not going to get fooled again if you buy Target and put a pair straight on and sell Wal Mart here. The disparity and we're talking about nine turns on a P E multiple. That's one you want to own. I'm long Walmart. I've been long Wal Mart for a long time. I'm also a long target at these levels.
Brian Sullivan
And I want to be very clear, folks, to the audience that I'm not leading this charge. I'm just a seeker of truth.
Tim Seymour
Although you did start this.
Brian Sullivan
Dan, final comment on Walmart and or all retailers.
Guy Adami
I think that, you know, if you're concerned about Walmart and expectations in the print, you got to be concerned about cost. It's got a similar sort of dynamic, a similar sort of set up here. There's probably some better valuations with similar sort of like setups, if you will, maybe your TJX or something like that, trading at reasonable valuations that might do well in a more inflationary environment where we're seeing tariffs and like. So I got nothing else for you.
Brian Sullivan
Well, that was great. And by the way, it has been amazing Ralph Lauren tapestry. They basically doubled any those stocks have been red, red hot. But big lots going bankrupt, it's like you got to pick the management team. All right, coming up, gold shining bright gold settling, closing in on the $3,000 mark on pace for its eighth straight week of gains. But there's a lot of talk about, you know, Fort Knox and potential audit. We're going to talk a lot more about all that. Plus The S&P 500 pulling back today from its records is is the market a little bit on edge because of tariff uncertainty? David Zervos coming up. We'll talk to him about that and what the Fed may really be thinking coming up. You're watching Fast MONEY here on cnbc. We'll be right back. All right. Welcome back to FAST money. If you haven't noticed, gold continues to go higher, hitting yet another new high today. But the president raising concerns over the country's reserves of gold, saying that his administration is going to personally, I think physically go check Fort Knox to make sure the stockpile is all there. Here's what former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had to say on CNBC earlier today about a potential audit.
David Zervos
The gold was there when I visited it.
Brian Sullivan
I hope nobody's moved it. I'm sure they haven't.
Tim Seymour
I was the first treasury secretary to.
Brian Sullivan
Go there and I think over 50 years there's very serious security protocols calls in place obviously to protect the gold that I can't talk about.
Tim Seymour
But we went, we saw it.
Brian Sullivan
And if, if President Trump wants it.
David Zervos
To be audited, that's obviously something that can be easily.
Brian Sullivan
All right. So Tim, aside from some of the Internet stuff that's going around, which is why we actually are asking whether or not the gold is there. What do you make of gold and the trade?
Tim Seymour
I don't need this treasury dynamic to be giving gold this rally. In fact, I don't think that it is. Look at the correlation of where the dollar peaked in this last umph and what's been a great three year trade in growth in gold even at times when we've had the dollar be pushing to all time highs, at least over the last couple of years and we've had a challenge on rates, we've had a challenge on inflation. This is a story where again I think the trade is more in the gold miners and I think it's a case where if you own the GDX or if you own the A in the clam, by the way, Agnico Eagle is it's one of the largest positions in idevo, which is an ETF I manage. And the reason is the operational leverage in gold miners at this point at $3,000 an ounce or almost with inflation under control. And they've kind of right sized a lot of their operations. Gold miners are wildly interesting here to me. And again, they don't always trade true to the underlying price of gold. But gold isn't necessarily rallying on this US treasury forecast. This is look at the $2 month lows today and a lot of other ingredients in the dollar trade. I think by the way, global chaos, that's why you own gold.
Karen Finerman
100% agree. And not all gold miners are created equal. We talk about it, I mean you put up a Newmont chart dollar that has been awful over the last five or six years. Agnico making all time highs. But the gold story is intact. Dollar goes lower, gold goes up. Dollar goes higher, gold goes up. Rate same thing. I mean gold has been impervious to things that historically would be facing tremendous headwinds with and there's a story behind it. The story being central banks continue to buy at a record pace. So you know, you're not shorting gold here. You're staying long and looking for continued move to the upside. This, this trade is still going in my opinion.
Brian Sullivan
Still going. Ammunition went apparently to Fort Knox. Said the gold is all there. All right. There is a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. Stocks taking a leg lower as investors.
Tim Seymour
Deal with earnings potential, tariffs and economic uncertainty. How one top market strategist is positioning next.
Brian Sullivan
Plus, Alibaba's having a big year and it's only February. What's behind the latest jump and how much higher can shares go?
Tim Seymour
That debate next. You're watching FAST MONEY live from the.
Brian Sullivan
NASDAQ market site in Times Square.
Tim Seymour
We're back right after this.
Brian Sullivan
All right. Welcome back to FAST money. Not a good day for your money. Stocks pulling back. The Dow falling 450 points by the way. Its worst day since January 10th. So just over a month. The S&P 500 down a half a percent. The Nasdaq also down. But again Contact is key. You can't go up every day. The Nasdaq coming in today with a five day win streak. So is down today. We'll see what happened. There's a lot of stocks that are trading after hours right now. You know what, we should kill the term after hours.
Tim Seymour
Why is that?
Brian Sullivan
Markets are 247 now. There's no before hours during. Right.
Karen Finerman
Well, their market hours.
Brian Sullivan
I just think honestly, if you can buy and sell a stock, it's the market hours.
Tim Seymour
But.
Brian Sullivan
But anyway.
Tim Seymour
But you can't sell it the same way in after hours as you can.
Brian Sullivan
Fair enough.
Tim Seymour
And I think the market hours are important.
Brian Sullivan
Okay. In after hours trading, booking holdings and Rivian higher after both beating on earnings and revenue expectations. Block now trading under the ticker XYZ for some reason heading in the other way. It is down right now about 5%. They missed on the top and bottom line. Live nations here is not really up a 410 of 1%. Revenue coming in above average. So booking holdings Rivian and Live Nation up. And we are seeing Robinhood down. Celsius holdings are the drink maker, the energy drink. That stock is Soaring. It's up 29% to exactly $33. They are buying a drink rival Colin called Alan New. Alani New. Does anybody have any idea who that company is?
Karen Finerman
No.
Dan Nathan
No.
Brian Sullivan
Well, they're paying $1.8 billion for a company called Alani New or Alani Nui. Whatever. The market loves it. You know, we love David Zervos of Jefferies. We love everything about him. He's a handsome man. We appreciate him coming on the show. He's also the chief market strategist at Jefferies. He's a CNBC contributor. David, thanks. I'm not going to ask you about energy drinks. Don't worry, we can use the Google for that. You know everything there is to know. And more about Jay Powell. Your piece a couple days ago was a little etchy. Is Jay Powell kind of coming around to the Trump way of thinking? What did you mean by that?
David Zervos
Well, Brian, first of all, just let me say I want to echo what Guy said earlier in the show. It's great seeing you and Kelly together. It's a lot of fun. It's not one plus one equals two. It's one plus one equals three or four. You guys are great. And it's been a lot of fun to watch because I've been with both of you guys before solo, and I really enjoy it. So let me just. And it's nice to be here on Fast Money for a Few runs. We've been having a good time here, too. Last time in Miami, this time in D.C. but let me get to your question, which is how will Jay react to the aggression from Trump that is going to last probably through May of 2026, which is when his term ends. And I think it's gonna be different than 2018, if you remember 18, it wasn't fun. He pushed back pretty hard. He said we were a long way from neutral. We had a really ugly Christmas time in 2018 as the Fed got very hawkish, and then he had to pivot back and he started cutting. I don't think that that kind of line in the sand, that aggression is going to be the same. I think we've seen a couple of his statements that look a little more in line with Trump policies, whether it's on bank regulation, whether it's what he said about some of the debanking stuff that he was asked about, and a number of other things we highlighted. I just. I think this isn't the time for Jay to be confrontational. I think he can walk a tight line. We'll see. He hasn't said much, but I just don't think it's going to be this. This difficult thing for the market to watch, like in 2018, where the Fed chair is going one way and he's going another way.
Brian Sullivan
It's clear. Listen, I'm going to say it, David, and you can ignore it or you can confirm it, because I got this from a guy you know by the name of David Zervos. I don't know. I don't think Jay Powell likes Donald.
David Zervos
Trump right now much.
Brian Sullivan
Okay. A lot of people don't like Donald Trump, but a lot of people are also not the Federal Reserve Chairman of the Board. So I only bring that up, David, because I do worry that Trump as a real estate developer, wants low rates. Low rates, Low rates. Even if Jay Powell wanted to cut rates, I do worry. Is there a possibility that Powell won't do something he would like to do merely because the president, who he probably doesn't like, wants to do that thing?
David Zervos
Well, I think the answer to that early in Jay's career was more of a yes than it is today. And the reason I say that is right now, Jay, and I think you're right about. I don't think they're going to be golf buddies when Jay walks out in May. I don't think he's getting invited to Trump West Palm Beach. And I don't think. I just don't think that they're going to be friendly. That said, Jay cares about his legacy and his legacy is aligned with success in the economy, which is also aligned with this administration. And Jay's on the end of his career as the Fed Chair. He's gonna care about that legacy. He's not trying to build the legacy where he didn't wanna go down in the history books as Arthur Burns or someone that got manipulated by the President. He's already basically said, that's not me. And he's won that battle. He had some scars from that battle. And now it's time, I think, just to play an easier, an easier game here into the end. Does that mean he cuts a lot if the President wants. No, it just means that it's not going to get aggressive. That's my call. I think that was probably, I think that's just an easier way to think about this next year as we transition. Plus, look, you've got the new Treasury Secretary making some inroads into policy by talking about focusing on the ten year, a place that we typically associated with Fed policy, particularly under qe. So Jay's toolkit's changing a little. Jay's sort of whole structure is changing with a new Treasury Secretary and a new president. But I think his goals are largely aligned as he walks out the door in a little over a year with this administration. So why cut off his nose to spite his face? I don't get that. I think it's going to be a more cooperative Fed in the end. That's my guess.
Tim Seymour
David. Tim Seymour. So speaking of alignment, just to oversimplify, our markets aligned with Fed policy, in other words, which should be aligned with the economy. I'm trying to understand whether the markets are appropriately positioned for the growth that we see in this economy or again, do we see a growth scare out there as well. So it ultimately is where equities are interpreting the Fed and in the Powell Trump love affair.
David Zervos
Well, look, I think the Powell Trump love affair or hate affair or whatever it's going to become or just irrelevancy in the end, I think is, is not really the important driving force of this market. The market I think is going to key much more off things like deregulation policy, smaller federal government and some of the disinflationary policies that I think Scott Bessen spoke about recently where he thinks we're going into more of a Goldilocks, a Goldilocks policy style for this administration. That's what I think the market's going to focus more on. I know we get hung up on tariffs. I know. We get hung up on immigration. They certainly have stagflationary tendencies. The question is magnitude, how big are they relative to the positives of stronger growth and lower inflation that comes from deregulation and a smaller federal government footprint. I think that latter force is much more dominant. That's my bet. That's why I'm very optimistic on risk assets this year. And I just don't think you need the Fed to be cutting 50, 100, 200 basis points. In fact, if they're cutting a lot, it probably means something's going wrong. So I think a few more cuts. Great. I think we'll learn that neutral's a little lower. Maybe that's going to come later this year, next year, but we don't need it to go up. We've had pretty good runs in the equity market in 2023 and 2024, and the Fed was not really giving us rate cuts during that time. In fact, in 23, they were raising rates and the market did great. So I just don't think it's a prerequisite. It's not a necessary condition here.
Brian Sullivan
Well, love having you on. Love the insight. David Zervos can handle anything down in D.C. and David, thank you for the very, very kind words. Be well. Turn your take on anything you just heard.
Dan Nathan
Well, I agree with David that Jay cares about his legacy. Right. But I sort of think his legacy is trying to get inflation back under control. Whether or not that fits in with where Trump is or not. I think he, I mean, remember when they said, can you be replaced? And he was very, no. Right. Will you step down? No, I think he's going to be. If he doesn't feel inflation's where he wants it to be, I think he doesn't cut.
Brian Sullivan
I just wonder what the Fed can do about auto insurance and car home insurance and things like that.
Guy Adami
How do you bundle them?
Karen Finerman
I have an update, by the way. This is from our crack staff in Englewood Cliffs and here at the nasdaq. Give me a second, please. Aulani New. Tim, I'm surprised you didn't know this. Alani New is a woman's supplement brand that's very popular. They sell energy drinks, vitamins and workout supplements. Back to you, Brian.
Brian Sullivan
And the energy drinks have 200 milligrams of caffeine, which is more than like a large size certain like cafe mocha at Starbucks. So you drink it, Tim?
Tim Seymour
Oh, of course, Jack. No, I'm going out to get myself. I'm going to go to either way.
Brian Sullivan
Whoever Lifetime supplies, Katie Hearn founded them. She's now super rich. Coming up, barely two months into the year and Alibaba is already up more than 60%. We're going to find out what in the world is going on with Alibaba. All right. Well, it is not Baba O'Reilly, but Alibaba shares are higher. The Chinese tech giant saying that strength in its its cloud intelligence unit and e commerce driving profits higher in the December quarter. Revenues also topping analysts expectations. Things like the meme stock king, Ryan Cohen boosting his stake in Baba to $1 billion. That according to the Wall Street Journal. And get this guys, Alibaba stock is now up more than 60% already this year. Guy Dami, do we see more gains? I have no idea what to ask about Alibaba because I truly don't understand their business.
Karen Finerman
What's been the problem with it? Why is it now rallying the way.
Brian Sullivan
It has when when I say one of the biggest e commerce, it's not a meme stock, the biggest e commerce retailers in the world rises 60% in a couple of weeks. You got my attention Justified though.
Karen Finerman
And you know, and Tim has views on this as well. Well, there's more to go now with that said, this has been a straight line from 80 to 145. It backed off a little bit today. So you're looking for another entry point. Maybe it comes in the form of that prior high 118. But you're finding a place to continue to own this stock. David Tepper talked about it. The big short guys have talked about it for a while. We have said many times on the show it's headed to 140 got there today. But I am telling you folks, this still has a lot of Runway to the upside.
Tim Seymour
Well, there's a couple of things going on with Alibaba. And let's just talk about on the playing field of what they do. Ali cloud is, is, is the cloud asset, I think in China. And people are realizing that this is so undervalued, it's been given zero. So this isn't just an E commerce play. This is much like the plays in the US it's much like nw it really is. It's not just about the e commerce business. Ali cloud is a lot more valuable. The other dynamic here is Jack Ma has gone from being missing Weekend at Bernie's. He's back and in fact, he's actually sitting there in the same room with Xi Jinping being a representative of the tech sector of China. This is great news because China's tech darks are coming back to, you know, essentially to the White House as well. This is a story where Alibaba was not sold down to lows of, in the, in the, I don't know, high 60s guy because of the earnings multiple. It was sold because of political risk. It was sold because you weren't allowed to do a sum of the parts ratio on it. It was because Jack Ma at one point was well ahead of the government. So where can this go? I think it could go a whole lot higher. And I think if you look at the growth in the Chinese Internet sector as a whole, pinduoduo, baidu, jd.com these are companies that all have earnings growth and have since 2021 and only recently have started to price it in. Technically, they're through where they needed to be on the charts. You stay long, stay longer. I'm very long.
Dan Nathan
I agree with you on the Jack Ma thing. I think it's huge. It was a discount on the stock because he was in exile and then they didn't let them do the ant spinoff. And remember, this company has 22% of their market cap is cash. That's extraordinary. So I really like it. However, all that having been said, I did sell some April 150 calls today for about, I think, 620, which seemed to me decent. I mean, it's had an enormous run. I think it's still undervalued. If it is the Amazon of China and if we do think China is turning or has it has, then I think you stay long in general. But those upside calls seem very expensive to me.
Brian Sullivan
Kind of made you get disappeared for a couple of months, you find religion, you come back, you meet with the Xi Jinping and everything's fine. Stock makes a fortune. We're going to shift gears from Chinese online retail to retail here in America. Shares of Tanger Outlets jumping after their latest results. And the CEO will join us, talk about that state of malls and you, the American consumer.
Tim Seymour
Actually that would, if.
Brian Sullivan
You had any idea what happened. COMMERCIAL BREAKS the SHOW I mean, I'm just, it's amazing I'm still here. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of outlet operator tanger jumping nearly 4% today. The retailer announcing revenue of 141 million, an occupancy rate of 98%. Company also acquiring a new property just last week in lovely Cleveland, Ohio. CEO Stephen Yellowf is here now for more on the results. I want to talk about what we were talking about in the commercial break. Though, about these stories. And you had gone in and said, this is how we transformed our business. You're about to drop some truth. But now we're on tv, so just do it while we're on the air.
Karen Finerman
Sure.
H
Well, what we were talking about was a shopping center that's positioned in between two major cities, because I've been to.
Brian Sullivan
Year one in Howell, Michigan. That's what we're talking about on a highway.
H
And you know, we built a shopping center about a year and a half ago in Nashville that's about 12 minutes away from the city. So I think some of the major dynamics have changed over the 30 years of outlet shopping, the most significant of which is we built. We're building them closer in to the communities where the people.
Brian Sullivan
Why does that. Why does that. Because you're right, they used to be, and they still are in sort of far off places. But why does that matter to investors in your company? Why do they care where the mall is physically located?
H
So if we journey back 30 years ago, the shopping center needed to be positioned far enough away from the department store business, where most of the manufacturers who populated these malls, you know, they had their brands were in those department stores. Now what we're finding is a lot more vertical retailers using outlet to clear excess inventory. And I also think that the consumer for outlet shopping right now is a lot more local. So a lot of those centers that were built in geographies that might not have had a big regional mall in their vicinity, places like Hilton Head and Myrtle beach and Savannah, Georgia, you know, those cities have now become populated by people. I think post Covid, there's a lot of population growth in a lot of those markets. And these outlet centers are now becoming the places to go and the places to shop. The transformation that you were talking about is that recognizing the fact that a local consumer is looking for different things and not just an outlet shopping experience, they want better food and beverage, they want places to hang out, they want better experience, they want a movie theater. So we've pivoted our business, transformed our business to include a lot of those uses.
Dan Nathan
So, Steve, I just realized you were the coach for my son for baseball. Thanks. Nice to see you again. So you must have a really good look at the consumer from all different parts of the country. What are you seeing?
H
You know, I think coming out of holiday shopping, I think the consumer was extremely resilient. You know, our shop, our holiday numbers were great. Our traffic numbers were up, our sales numbers were up, were up. And then obviously January, you know, there's some significant weather events and you know, typically January is probably one of the slowest shopping months. But you know, I always look to the retailers as sort of a proxy for how the consumer is doing in that if the retailers are looking to expand, looking to bring more stores into our format or any other format for that reason, I think that that's them voting that bricks and mortar retail for them is something that they want to continue to grow and they want to continue to bring their products to the consumer. The retailers that we're working with, a lot of which are new to outlet now really have these fairly large open to buys and I haven't seen any pullback.
Karen Finerman
Stephen, congratulations. That's a great quarter. 98% occupancy suggests that you're doing everything right. So again, congratulations.
Brian Sullivan
That's not 100%.
H
Thanks Guy. You guys.
Karen Finerman
Well, I don't think it can ever.
Tim Seymour
Be 100% and that's intentional.
Karen Finerman
It's intentional.
H
That game, you know, you always got to have one space. You can't move anything.
Brian Sullivan
Nobody ever gets 100%.
Tim Seymour
Come on, Brian, please. I was asking a question.
Karen Finerman
With that said, now you're going to have to look for growth opportunities. So where do you see those growth opportunities?
H
Well, that's there in a bunch of different ways. Well, first of all, you just mentioned we bought a shopping center in Cleveland. We just bought a shopping center last quarter in Little Rock, Arkansas. So we think that there's great markets for us to expand our shopping center business. But you know, also if you take a look at what makes up that 90% occupancy, embedded in that number is some short term leases or some leases that are starting to roll. And if you look at our rent spreads that we reported, we reported a 15% rent spread, 13% rent spread. So a rent spread is the difference between what the prior tenant paid, what the new tenant is willing to pay. So that means we're growing our rents as we re tenant our space or as we renew retailers. And what we're finding is in the case that there's a retailer who perhaps has lost a market share, sales are going in the wrong direction. We're replacing those tenants with new tenants new to the business. Last year we added six Sephora stores to our portfolio. We had no Sephora's prior to that. They're taking space, they're doing great sales volume and they're paying more rent than the people that they're replacing.
Brian Sullivan
The rent spread, any day you learn something, Stephen, is a good day. We learned you were a little league coach and rent spread. Stephen, thank you very much. All right, Coming up, Palantir pulling back. Cruise lines docked. We're going to talk about all that coming up right after this break. All right. Not but a great couple days for Palantir and but a great couple weeks and months and years, but not a great couple of days. Palantir down 5% today, 10% drop yesterday. Palantir is down again right now, which we would call after hours off about 2%. The move coming after Defense Secretary Pete Hagg says suggesting cuts will come to defense spending. CEO Palantir, Alex Karp also selling the stock. But Dan, let's be clear. Palantir still up 40% this year.
Guy Adami
It's the greatest company ever, ever trade 66 times sales. I thought the headline yesterday was a bit goofy. This is a company that maybe does $4 billion in sales this year. So whatever they're, whatever this Doge is doing, whatever Heg says wants to do, it's just not going to be, it's not going to come from here. You know what I mean? And to be honest with you, if they're doing the things that a lot of investors think they're doing or hope they're doing, it's going to grow. Share with the Pentagon.
Brian Sullivan
I love how you said 66 times sales like it's nothing.
Guy Adami
No, it is something. I mean, like it's insanity. It's a $300 billion market cap company two days ago. You know, we've never seen anything like that.
Brian Sullivan
Tim Seymour, should the cruise lines pay more in taxes, prices?
Tim Seymour
Look, Commerce Secretary and friend of Fast Money Howard Lutnick thinks they should. And I think the quote is something like, do you see a cruise line ever flying an American flag? No, you don't. Yes, you should. Whether that's a reason to sell these here, I'm just not sure. And in fact, my guess is when we've been tuning into the earnings profiles of these companies, we've been listening for margin. We've been story for normalizing of essentially their market. Again, after Covid, that's been the story. It's been an incredible run until it wasn't. Ultimately from the beginning of February. I think you stay out of this one for a while.
Karen Finerman
In terms of the flag, Brian, though, that's a legal matter.
Brian Sullivan
I was going to say, I think Mr. Ludnick, who's super smart, needs to get familiar with the Jones act. But that's a different that's on the Admiralty Channel. We're back with final trades right after this. Tim, kickoff around the horn please.
Tim Seymour
Well, and speaking of the flag and the kids that are all right, how about the USA Hockey team tonight? Yes. Let's go. Oh and Eem.
Dan Nathan
Yeah, we talked talked about it before. It was good enough for the D block or whatever it was. I would be selling some Alibaba short term upside calls.
Brian Sullivan
Selling upside calls. Yeah.
Guy Adami
If you're optimistic about the deal market coming back, you probably want to look at Morgan Stanley.
Karen Finerman
An homage to the who this evening. But Brian, it's always an homage to you. It's a joy having you join us as always. Newmont Mining should really get on its pony and go higher from here pony.
Brian Sullivan
I do love it guys. Thanks for taking this is not this is someone more than just an eminence front. Mad Money starts right now.
Tim Seymour
You're not playing by the rules.
David Zervos
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please Visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer.
CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Banks Break Down… And Alibaba’s Big Run
Release Date: February 20, 2025
On the February 20, 2025 episode of CNBC’s “Fast Money,” host Brian Sullivan, along with a panel of top traders—including Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami—delved into the tumultuous movements within the financial sector and the unexpected surge of Alibaba’s stock. This comprehensive discussion provided investors with actionable insights into current market dynamics, focusing primarily on declining bank stocks, Walmart’s mixed performance, gold’s steady climb, and Alibaba’s impressive run. Below is a detailed summary capturing all key points, discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.
[00:01 - 00:57]
Brian Sullivan opens the show live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square, highlighting the key topics for the hour:
Notable Quote:
Brian Sullivan (00:29): "Meaty, beaty, big and bouncy. Palantir cashes out to its worst two-day run in over a year. And cruise talks."
[01:06 - 07:08]
The panel discusses the disappointing performance of the financial sector, emphasizing that not all banks are equally affected. The focus is on major banks with substantial M&A (mergers and acquisitions) businesses, which have taken a harder hit compared to others.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Dan Nathan (02:19): "All the other things are true. Asset wealth management is great. I think debt and equity markets will be great and I think the economy is doing well. So I'm sticking with the banks."
Tim Seymour (05:05): "Nothing changed. They had a good run. Cameras. Right. These are banks that have had a good run. If you wanted a reason to sell a headline, this was a good headline."
Insights:
[07:08 - 15:59]
The discussion shifts to Walmart, which experienced its worst trading day in over a year, dropping approximately 7%. Despite this, Walmart has seen a stock price increase exceeding 10% in recent weeks, leading to a complex analysis of its performance.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Dan Nathan (09:07): "I think that the guidance seemed to be sandbagging somewhat. Why not say we don't know what's going to happen with tariffs?"
Bill Simon (11:12): "Their guidance of a plus four next year and growing profit faster than sales in that uncertain environment, to me is a very, very positive indicator of the consumer."
Karen Finerman (13:08): "Collectively, we've been extraordinarily bullish on Walmart for a while. What we were saying last night is, given the valuation they really needed to knock the COVID off the ball, which it was a great quarter, not good enough."
Insights:
[17:08 - 20:46]
The panel transitions to the gold market, noting that gold is approaching the $3,000 mark, continuing an eight-week streak of gains. Discussions include potential audits of Fort Knox and the implications for gold prices.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Tim Seymour (18:39): "I don't think that it is. [...] Gold miners are wildly interesting here to me."
Karen Finerman (20:14): "Not all gold miners are created equal. [...] Central banks continue to buy at a record pace."
Insights:
[32:03 - 34:05]
A significant portion of the episode focuses on Alibaba, whose stock has surged over 60% in a few months. The panel examines the factors driving this remarkable performance.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Tim Seymour (32:06): "Ali cloud is a lot more valuable. [...] It was sold because of political risk. It was sold because you weren't allowed to do a sum of the parts ratio on it."
Karen Finerman (32:46): "This still has a lot of runway to the upside."
Dan Nathan (34:05): "If it's the Amazon of China and if we do think China is turning, then I think you stay long in general."
Insights:
[35:17 - 40:20]
The discussion returns to the American retail landscape with a focus on Tanger Outlets, a company experiencing growth amid changing consumer behaviors.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Stephen Yellowf, CEO of Tanger Outlets (36:29): "We've pivoted our business to include better experiences, like movie theaters, to attract local consumers."
Karen Finerman (38:49): "98% occupancy suggests that you're doing everything right."
Insights:
[41:11 - 43:01]
The episode wraps up with brief discussions on other market movements, including Palantir’s stock decline and the energy drinks sector.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Guy Adami (41:11): "It's the greatest company ever. It’s a $300 billion market cap company two days ago."
Brian Sullivan (42:16): "Alani New is a woman's supplement brand that's very popular. They sell energy drinks, vitamins, and workout supplements."
Insights:
[43:08 - End]
As the episode concludes, panelists reflect on the day’s discussions, reinforcing key investment strategies and market sentiments.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Tim Seymour (42:38): "How one top market strategist is positioning next."
Final Insights: The panel underscores the importance of understanding sector-specific dynamics and maintaining a diversified investment portfolio. As bank stocks experience temporary setbacks and retail giants navigate economic uncertainties, strategic investments in high-growth areas like Alibaba and gold remain promising. The episode closes with an optimistic outlook on risk assets, balanced by cautious monitoring of macroeconomic indicators.
Conclusion:
The February 20, 2025 episode of “Fast Money” provided an in-depth analysis of the current market landscape, highlighting significant movements in the financial sector, retail giants, and the tech industry. With expert insights from seasoned traders and industry leaders, the episode equips investors with the knowledge to navigate the complexities of today’s market, emphasizing the importance of strategic differentiation and long-term growth potential.