Best Days Behind Apple?... And A Bitcoin Bond ETF 1/16/25

Summary

CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Best Days Behind Apple?... And A Bitcoin Bond ETF
Release Date: January 16, 2025

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Introduction

Hosted by Melissa Lee, "Fast Money" brings together top traders to dissect the day's most pressing financial news. In this episode, the focus centers on Apple’s declining performance, the emergence of Bitcoin bond ETFs, robust earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor, and contrasting fortunes of major retailers like Target and Wal-Mart.

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Apple’s Struggles in China and Valuation Concerns

Apple's Decline in Chinese Market
Apple experienced its worst trading day since August, dropping over 3.4% due to a significant decline in shipments to China—17% for 2024 and a staggering 25% drop in the fourth quarter (Melissa Lee, [00:17]). This downturn positions Apple in third place behind Vivo and Huawei, marking it as the least performing MAG7 stock in 2025.

Analysts’ Sell Rating and Future Outlook
Moffitt Nathanson issued a rare sell rating, projecting Apple could fall another 18% (Melissa Lee, [00:17]). The primary concerns include potential tariffs and a looming trade war with President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

Valuation Debate
Tim Seymour ([02:03]) and Guy Adami ([02:36]) discuss Apple’s high valuation—trading at 33-34 times forward earnings. Mike Coe ([05:56]) counters that Apple hasn't outpaced the S&P 500 in revenue or earnings growth over the past three years, questioning its premium valuation. The panel debates whether Apple remains a defensive stock amid market volatility, with Mike highlighting Apple's higher implied volatility compared to the S&P ([09:32]).

Key Quotes

• Tim Seymour: “I think there is good news priced into it” ([05:36]).
• Mike Coe: “It is not a safer place than the S&P” ([09:32]).
• Guy Adami: “This is one of the best companies in the world” ([07:30]).

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Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment

Shift in Options Market Dynamics
Mandy Hsu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at CIBO, explains a notable shift towards more downside risk being priced into the options market. Previously, there was higher demand for upside calls, but now investors are more concerned about potential market downturns ([11:38]).

Impact on Other Asset Classes
Bonwin ([14:01]) inquires about volatility in the bond market. Mandy responds that unlike previous sell-offs where protection was sought through puts, there's now increased demand for calls in TLT options, indicating confidence in bond yields stabilizing.

Upcoming Catalysts for Sustained Volatility
Mandy suggests that persistent inflation or aggressive Fed actions could lead to sustained volatility, similar to the environment in 2022 ([14:13]).

Key Quotes

• Mandy Hsu: “We are now seeing a return to a more normal environment where now people are actually concerned about downside risk” ([11:45]).
• Mike Coe: “The options market is implying that it will continue to be more volatile than the S&P” ([10:21]).

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Taiwan Semiconductor’s Robust Earnings

Record-Breaking Profits
Taiwan Semiconductor saw its stock surge nearly 4% following a substantial earnings beat, with net profits up 57% year-over-year and high-performance computing divisions driving sales ([21:18]).

Growth Drivers and Future Expectations
The CFO highlighted that revenue from AI tripled in 2024 and is expected to double this year, signaling sustained growth prospects. Mike Coe underscores the attractiveness of Taiwan Semiconductor’s growth at reasonable valuations ([23:08], [23:21]).

Key Quotes

• Bonwin: “At 23 and a half times, you're talking about 57% earnings growth, 39% revenue growth” ([21:50]).
• Guy Adami: “This is a situation where management has aligned with a secular trend” ([22:24]).

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Target vs. Wal-Mart: Diverging Fortunes

Target’s Mixed Performance
Target reported strong Q4 sales, raising its sales forecast amid record holiday shopping but saw flat profit outlooks due to heavy discounting on Black Friday and Cyber Monday ([25:12]). This resulted in Target’s stock dropping and widening the performance gap with Wal-Mart, which has risen nearly 70% over the past year ([25:12]).

Wal-Mart’s Strength and Valuation Issues
Mike Coe points out Wal-Mart’s consistent top-line growth, especially in the grocery sector, contrasting Target’s slower revenue pace ([25:55]). However, Wal-Mart faces its own valuation challenges despite outperforming ([25:55]).

Panel Discussion
Guy Adami and Bonwin argue that much of the negative sentiment towards Target is already priced in, suggesting that the stock holds potential despite current setbacks. Bonwin also highlights Target’s successful subscription models as a growth avenue ([26:34], [27:25]).

Key Quotes

• Mike Coe: “Wal-Mart is exceeding on that, on that metric and Target is actually falling behind” ([25:55]).
• Bonwin: “Some of the metrics that we saw here are positive for BJ's and Costco” ([27:25]).

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Introduction of Bitcoin Bond ETF

Strive Asset Management’s Innovation
Strive Asset Management has filed for a new Bitcoin bond ETF, offering investors exposure to crypto through corporate debt rather than direct token holdings. CEO Matt Cole explains that these bonds invest in companies like MicroStrategy, which hold significant Bitcoin reserves ([31:00]).

Risk-Reward Profile
Guy Adami questions the risk-reward balance of these convertible bonds, given MicroStrategy’s levered position in Bitcoin. Matt Cole responds by outlining that the bonds are designed to offer 75% of Bitcoin’s upside while limiting downside risk unless there’s a major decline in Bitcoin’s price ([33:03]).

Diversification and Management
Cole emphasizes the importance of active management and diversification within the bond ETF to optimize returns and manage risks, with MicroStrategy being the most prominent issuer in this space ([35:09], [35:56]).

Key Quotes

• Matt Cole: “If you're a Bitcoin bull, it's very hard to break these bonds” ([33:03]).
• Guy Adami: “The risk reward here for buying a bond that's linked to a company who could have huge credit exposure” ([33:03]).

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Traders’ 2025 Acronyms and Investment Strategies

Acronym Selections
Participants share their 2025 acronyms, representing their investment strategies:

• Mike Coe: RISING (RSP, IBIT, SCHH, INDA, GOOGL)
• Bonwin: BOOM (Broadcom, Oracle, Occidental, MasterCard)
• Guy Adami: Aligns with championship trends, emphasizing sector-based plays.

Panel Thoughts
The team discusses the creativity and adherence to rules in selecting acronyms, highlighting their strategic picks based on growth sectors like AI, real estate, and energy ([38:11], [40:04]).

Key Quotes

• Mike Coe: “RSP is the ETF that tracks the equal weight S&P index” ([38:26]).
• Bonwin: “The enthusiasm around AI and AI adjacent is going to continue” ([40:35]).

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Bank Earnings: Morgan Stanley vs. Bank of America

Morgan Stanley’s Strong Performance
Morgan Stanley reported more than double its quarterly profits to $3.7 billion, driven by robust equity and fixed income trading businesses. The firm also noted a resurgence in retail trading activity ([43:46]).

Bank of America’s Mixed Results
Contrarily, Bank of America saw shares drop despite doubling profits, with concerns over rate volatility and valuation issues ([43:46]).

Panel Insights
The team acknowledges Morgan Stanley's balanced success across its business verticals, while expressing caution over Bank of America's valuation and potential rate hike impacts ([43:46], [44:13]).

Key Quotes

• Bonwin: “Investment banks know the advisory and trading fees” ([44:26]).
• Mike Coe: “Bank of America doesn't went to that and the recent level” ([43:46]).

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SpaceX’s Technological Milestone

Successful Rocket Launch
SpaceX successfully launched its Super Heavy Starship rocket, capturing the booster at the Texas launch pad for only the second time. Although contact lost with the second stage, the achievement marks significant progress in reusable rocket technology ([25:25]).

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Closing Remarks and Upcoming Topics

Final Trade Picks
The hosts and traders finalize their 2025 acronyms, emphasizing growth sectors and strategic stock selections. They also preview upcoming discussions on holiday sales impacts on retailers and the evolution of crypto investment tools like Bitcoin bond ETFs ([37:14], [40:57]).

Upcoming Segments
Listeners are teased with future topics, including deeper dives into bank earnings, further analysis of tech sector volatility, and additional innovative investment products in the crypto space ([29:11], [45:05]).

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Notable Advertisements and Sponsorships Skipped

Throughout the episode, several advertisements for Dogtopia and Comcast were mentioned, promoting their services but are omitted from this summary as per guidelines.

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Conclusion

This episode of "Fast Money" delves deep into Apple's market challenges amid geopolitical tensions, the advent of Bitcoin bond ETFs as a novel investment vehicle, Taiwan Semiconductor's impressive earnings, and the contrasting performances of major retailers like Target and Wal-Mart. Additionally, the discussion on market volatility and panelists' investment strategies provides listeners with comprehensive insights to navigate the evolving financial landscape.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed are solely those of the participants and do not reflect CNBC's views. Investors should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Key Timestamps and Quotes:

• [00:17] Melissa Lee introduces Apple's decline and market concerns.
• [02:03] Tim Seymour likens sell ratings to "swashbuckling moves."
• [05:36] Mike Coe critiques Apple's valuation.
• [09:32] Mike Coe challenges Apple as a defensive stock.
• [11:38] Mandy Hsu discusses shifting volatility in the options market.
• [21:50] Bonwin praises Taiwan Semiconductor’s growth metrics.
• [25:12] Melissa Lee outlines Target’s mixed Q4 results.
• [31:00] Introduction of Strive Asset Management’s Bitcoin bond ETF.
• [33:03] Matt Cole explains the risk-reward profile of Bitcoin bonds.
• [38:11] Discussion on traders’ 2025 acronyms.
• [43:46] Overview of Morgan Stanley vs. Bank of America earnings.
• [44:26] Bonwin comments on investment bank fee dynamics.

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For more detailed discussions and expert opinions, tune into the full episode of CNBC's "Fast Money."

Transcript

[Frank Holland]

Weekdays at 5am Be first on world markets, first to the global business conversation. Get a jump on the investing day every day with Frank Holland. Success starts early. Worldwide exchange, 5am Eastern. CNBC.

[Melissa Lee]

Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Rotten Apple, the iPhone maker, seeing its worst day since August. China concerns and a looming trade war weighing on the stock. Is there more pain ahead for the longtime market leader? And Bitcoin bonds, another way to play the red hot crypto space. We'll dig in on the latest ETF in the sector with the CEO of Strive Asset Management. Plus Taiwan semi surges on the back of results. Target misses the mark and widens the gap with Wal Mart and two more trader acronyms. Will a rising tide lift Mike's boat? Did von we pick up booming trade? We'll find out later this hour. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from studio Be at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Bono and Ice and Guy Dami and Mike Co. We start off with Apple losing its top spot at the market in China. Shipments to the country plunging 17% in 2024, according to research firm Canalis, with a whopping 25% drop in just the fourth quarter. That was Apple's worst yearly decline ever and put it into third place behind China's Vivo and Huawei. The stock falling over 3.4% today for its worst day since August. It's now lost nearly 9% already in 2025, making it by far the worst performing MAG7 stock so far this year. Analysts on Wall street have also been getting a bit more. Just last week, Moffitt Nathanson issued a rare sell rating on the stock slash its price target, saying apple could fall another 18% from here. The biggest concern there, tariffs. And with President elect Donald Trump just a few more days from returning to office, could that threat just be starting? I guess at the heart of this whole thing is is there more pain ahead?

[Tim Seymour]

You know, there's an interesting word in the English language, swashbuckler. Are you familiar with this?

[Melissa Lee]

It's usually associated with pirates.

[Tim Seymour]

Thank you, Tim.

[Guy Adami]

Thank you, Tim. Thank you.

[Tim Seymour]

And I think for Moffitt Nathanson, for example, to make a call like that in the midst of what was it? That's a pretty much a swashbuckling move going against sort of being out there. Right. And I sort of admire it. I'll say this, where we traded down to today right to the Moving average but we've seen moves of this magnitude before. And I think finally some of the China concerns that I've had and they've been incorrect to have but are starting to come to fruition. I think valuation is coming to the forefront as well. So you get through this level then I think the November low of 220 is in play and it feels as though it's going to continue to trend towards those levels.

[Melissa Lee]

Seems like there are a lot more question marks about the upgrade cycle and the strength of that upgrade cycle based on AI offerings, seeing that there are very few offerings that are actually compelling enough for people to pay a lot more money for a new phone bottle. And so that plus the possibility of Apple not, not necessarily falling into the crosshairs of tariffs that we put on China, but retaliatory tariffs that China will take on US companies.

[Bonwin]

Well it would make sense. I mean they're one of the largest operators and if you look at that whole greater east region, it's about 60% of revenue. So the implications are significant here. And from a top line standpoint, you know again you still do have that service business. You have a significant installed base. And as Guys pointed out numerous times when you just talk about the passive income flows, the passive ETF flows, Apple is always going to be a significant portion. The real question is do you want to be overweight versus the S and P? Do you want to be adding Apple as a singular equity holding versus the rest of your portfolio? And I think right now going into a situation where one, the supercycle is not even a factor in China. So that, that, that there is already a reason for them to look for, for local competitors but in terms of them offering something that's a compelling reason for you to pay an upgrade now doesn't really seem to be there and so I would be hesitant to add but I do think as Guys mentioned, there is a floor to the short term.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, I think you're buying weakness in Apple and I think there's nothing about the China market share loss that we haven't been hearing about for a long time. This isn't just happen and the fourth quarter. So they were number one actually but they were, their sales year over year were down 25% for the fourth quarter. So the issue is absolutely partly the headlines from us China, are we getting worse? Are we ratcheting up? But I mean I would have thought in the days of when we were, you know, really putting the screws to, to Huawei or show me that China would have Already gone after Apple. We know they play the long game I guess I look at the price of Apple and I understand that the valuation isn't terribly cheap but, but when I at least hear about people say well look, there's not going to be a real upgrade cycle and there's no real, I, I don't see that in the price. I don't think there's any really a dynamic in the price and I think people will continue to refresh and upgrade Apple. The hardest part about this trade are not the headlines today. It's that trades at 33, 34 times forward and depending on where you believe you should put a multiple on their services business and depending on what you think is really the outlook. Let's also not forget if you think about the ASP and the Apple phone, it's gone higher. The gross margins have actually held their ground which is nice when you think about China that's you know that ASP is getting harder and harder for a lot of people and the, the domestic competition. They're very good phones. They're very good phones and they're significantly cheaper and there is a buy local mentality there.

[Melissa Lee]

So the move in Apple from June from WWDC to now, which is higher but 20 something dollars, that does not you think include any.

[Guy Adami]

I think it's a combination of people really looking at the consistency of the business. The overall dynamics around the software services business is something I don't think so especially when I look at the price of the stock going back two and a half years is largely within a 10% range from where it peaked out in probably early 20 or late 21.

[Melissa Lee]

Mike, you agree?

[Mike Coe]

No, not really. Nice look here. One of the reasons we talk about the valuation expansion that we've seen in the S and P is because some of its largest constituents, including Apple are some of the names that have seen that valuation expansion. This name, you know, Apple has not grown the top line as fast as the S and P in general has over the course of the last three years. It has not grown earnings as quickly as the S and P has over the course of the last three years. And yet it trades at a premium to it in fact because it represents 7% of the S and P. That's one of the reasons that you've seen multiple expansion in that broader index. So you know, look, it would have to be doing a whole lot more. I think there is good news priced into it. You can see that at over 30 times forward earnings then clearly there's some good news baked in that the last three years don't reflect.

[Melissa Lee]

Yeah, Guy.

[Tim Seymour]

No, it's about. It is a valuation thing. And again, in pass in the passive investing world, as Bonwin just said, I mean, nobody cares about valuation. And Apple wins to that, without question. But when valuation is sort of at the forefront, and to Tim's point, when you're trading either side of 30 times next year's numbers, with revenue growth maybe 8% or so, with margins, Tim pointed out as well, they haven't been deteriorating. They haven't been expanding either. I think you're making your bet that service, overall revenue will continue to grow and services as a percentage will continue to grow and get closer to sort of 27 or 28%. And then maybe you can justify that valuation. But short of that, you know, it feels like we're another one of these cycles where we've seen it before. You know, Apple can go down 25.

[Guy Adami]

Or 30%, but again, is it. Is it. If it's not really today's news on China and it's the valuation, then we can be. We could have been having this conversation for the last three years. Are you worried about China? If you're. Apple is really. It's not only the story of the day, but I think it's the only real story because we've known a. About slowing iPhone sales for a long time. We know there's no real innovation. Okay. So whatever. Bottom line is, this is one of the best companies in the world. Their capital markets dynamics, the free cash flow generation. This is a bank. This is a. This is something you can go to the bank on and you can't tell me there's that kind of a competitive threat in the U.S. there's nobody even close anywhere else in the world. So Greater China, which is China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. I mean, I think this is. This is the only place you worry about it.

[Melissa Lee]

So let me ask this question. You mentioned it could go down 20, 25% because the valuation is so high right now. Let's say the overall market goes down that much. Is Apple a better place to be? Will it go down relatively less than the broader market, or will it see a total tumble?

[Guy Adami]

Sorry, you didn't ask me. No, I'm just.

[Melissa Lee]

I know what you're.

[Guy Adami]

I felt the need to, but that's a great question.

[Melissa Lee]

Stop.

[Guy Adami]

Great question.

[Melissa Lee]

Defensive stock.

[Bonwin]

That's the question from high to low or from here. I mean, it's already down 12% versus an S and P that's relatively flat.

[Guy Adami]

Sounds like bombers on my side.

[Bonwin]

So, I mean, to an extent it's de risk, but like we have to look at the whole move. Like for us to pick one year or a year to date, it's kind of like an arbitrary moment in time that we're kind of picking. I think what you're seeing right now is that you can see Apple have some exorbitant beta to the market. So I think now, being that it's already off 12%, sure. I think you expect Apple to outperform.

[Melissa Lee]

We have to ask that. We can't go back in time. We can't go. I mean, it's today, Mike, it is today where people are making the decision, right? They're watching the show, they're making a decision or they have it in their portfolio and it's today that they're making the decision. Do they continue to hold Apple because it's a relatively defensive stock? I'm concerned about the valuation of the overall s and P500. I think we're going to hit a volatile time in the markets and want to be in a relatively defensive play.

[Mike Coe]

Ok, so I know, and I also take issue with the idea that it. No, I mean it is not a safer place than the S and P. The options markets can tell you this. It's got a 27% implied volatility which is about double that of SPY. So you're buying a stock that is more expensive than the market is generally and it is more volatile than the market is generally. I would like to understand someone please explain to me how that is safer. It isn't.

[Tim Seymour]

Mike is like Exorcist.

[Guy Adami]

I love how he's in my grill.

[Tim Seymour]

Right up in there.

[Guy Adami]

You don't have to agree. No, I'm not. I am not.

[Tim Seymour]

I'm not in his grill.

[Guy Adami]

I'm good with that. That's what we're supposed to do here.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean, so can, can you address Mike's concerns more?

[Guy Adami]

Mike, could you reiterate those concerns? I mean, I heard you on valuation, I hear you. Unemployed volatility. You're saying it's twice as much as the S and P. So you're saying that actually in a downdraft in the S and P, you think Apple's going to underperform.

[Mike Coe]

Well, it is more volatile and I think that's the point that Bono and was making. And the options market is implying that it will continue to be more volatile than the S and P is over the next 30 and 90 days. So, you know, we look at risk adjusted returns when we're trying to establish if you want to get into something that is lower risk, you're typically looking for lower volatility. This doesn't have lower volatility than the S and P does.

[Melissa Lee]

Sounds like a good point.

[Guy Adami]

Well, that's fine. I think if I look at US, China, Japan and that they essentially are 70% of the Apple store services revenue and that's up 12% year over year. I mean I, you know, there's a number of data points that to me tell me their business isn't falling apart and the higher margin part of their business is fine. Again, in a downdraft. Apple's proven to be defensive and the stock's done nothing over the last three years. Don't you think it's going to be in video? Don't you think it's going to be Amazon? I mean those are the stocks that are going to sell off.

[Tim Seymour]

As I mentioned earlier, an exercised Mike was mentioning derivatives. It would be great on a show like that given that we had somebody that could speak to like a Mandy Shoe for example.

[Melissa Lee]

Your wish is.

[Tim Seymour]

Come on, man.

[Melissa Lee]

One of Wall Street's top volatility experts thinks the regime changes underway in the broader market. Manny Xu is CIBO's head of derivatives market intelligence and the aforementioned derivatives expert. Mandy, welcome back.

[Mandy Hsu]

Thank you for the intro.

[Melissa Lee]

Great to have you. So what, how are investors breaks bracing themselves for the next, I don't know, couple of months?

[Mandy Hsu]

Yeah. So I think one notable shift that we've observed in the options market is that there is now more fear and more downside risk being priced into the options market. And, and this is specifically looking at S and P index options now puts always trade more expensive than calls. But we were in a regime for the past two plus years where there was a lot of demand for those upside calls. People were playing that catch up. Right. And we weren't seeing a lot of fear in the options market. That has shifted over the past four months. We are now seeing a return to a more normal environment where now people are actually concerned about downside risk in the market. And that's something that we haven't been in for the past two plus years.

[Melissa Lee]

Are you seeing that more in certain sectors when we were just having a very heated discussion about Apple in particular, I don't know if you can address individual stocks or if just big tech broadly and the desire to protect against downside there?

[Mandy Hsu]

Yeah. So what is notable in this environment is that investors are still expecting a lot of dispersion. So whether that means, you know, we get a rotation out of tech into other sectors or vice versa. That certainly is kind of how they're positioned for now. The risk is we get a sell off where it's not a rotation but everything sells out. We haven't really seen that and that's not what the market is pricing in. But if we do get that, then you can really start to see the VIX start to move higher.

[Bonwin]

So many. Can you speak a little bit about TLT volatility? I mean, we've seen quite a bit of rate volatility and it seemed like we would see a lockstep move in rate pickup and expected rate cuts. And as you pointed out, we're not seeing the same tick up in TLT volatility when we are seeing some of these movements in the longer term rates. Can you explain that dynamic a bit?

[Melissa Lee]

Sure.

[Mandy Hsu]

So what's been notable is that we've obviously been in a big bond market sell off. If you look at TLT options, which is one of the most, you know, traded bond market options, we're not really seeing a rush for protection in TLT options. And that is in sharp contrast with the last couple of sell offs that we've seen in TLT where as bonds have sold off, people have bought puts to protect against further losses. This time around there's actually been more demand for those calls. So the biggest pickup in option activity has actually come from the call side. So I would say that's kind of a difference from what we're seeing in equities in the bond market. At least investors are actually saying maybe this is the top in terms of yield or at least it's not that fear of additional accelerated sell off in the bond market.

[Tim Seymour]

Mandy, over the last, let's call it since August, volatility events have been one day events. August 5th, December 18th, December 27th. Is there any indication that those volume could last longer in 2025?

[Mandy Hsu]

Certainly, I think the catalyst to get a more sustained increase in volatility would have to be a shift in the economic backdrop and the economic outlook. Right. So I would say so far the broader US economy has been doing relatively well and certainly compared to other major economies. But if we start to see, you know, persistent inflation, a more aggressive Fed tariffs starting to impact the economy and really the outlook start to get murkier. That is when you typically see volatility pick up on a more sustained basis, similar to what we saw in 2022, for example.

[Guy Adami]

Mandy, so therefore where you see concentrations either on the calendar, where are people protecting against, Are there certain places that are certain events out there that you think are coming to light, at least in terms of anxiety or asset class, maybe outside of equ. Currencies. And you talked about how fixed maybe got a little overdone. How about in currencies? How about in oil? Because we have seen big moves in the dollar. We've actually seen a surprisingly good move in oil even with a higher dollar.

[Mandy Hsu]

Yeah, that's actually, that's a good point. We are seeing more volatility, risk premium or more fear being priced into the other asset classes. So effects you mentioned big pickup in volatility in that asset class, certainly in oil. And then within equities, we're seeing more volatility, risk premium in the other region. So I think the story of US Exceptionalism, right. People are to the other regions for more downside. So China, we talked about that. You guys talked about that earlier. Europe, I think those are the countries that are kind of very regions that are very exposed to potential changes in trade policy.

[Melissa Lee]

So just quick on the dollar, are traders positioning for a stronger dollar, even stronger from here?

[Mandy Hsu]

That I didn't look at the skew, but in terms of volatility, just expectations of more volatility.

[Melissa Lee]

Okay, Manny, great to see you. Thank you so much. Mandy Hsu Sebo, Mike Coe, where do you fall in the volatility? What, what events, dates on the calendar have you concerned the most?

[Mike Coe]

Well, I think obviously we have to look out to the next FOMC meeting. That's going to I think, be an important one. You know, net of the inflation data we just got, I think that there's more uncertainty about whether they could actually act sooner than some had probably believed even 10 days ago. So I think that is obviously one of the spots where we can look. And of course there's going to be more volatility. Right now we're right in the beginning of the earnings season. And there's two things that are going to happen in that environment. One is you're going to see individual stocks move around much more. And of course that can contribute to broader market volatility. And they're also going to be there's going to be greater dispersion in the returns of individual stocks. So more stock picking is really in place when you're going around earnings. And that's and that's not just unique to 2025 first quarter. I mean, this is, you know, it's a standard characteristic. It's a seasonal issue and we get it four times a year.

[Melissa Lee]

All right. Well, on Capitol Hill, lawmakers Grilling treasury secretary nominee Scott Besant today Besant in D.C. for his highly anticipated confirmation hearing. CNBC's Megan Casella's got the highlights. Megan?

[Megan Casella]

Melissa, it was really our first time hearing from Bessant on policy and he kept himself fairly measured, fairly balanced throughout tax cuts really dominated the day. Besant warned that not extending the 2017 cuts would bring economic calamity borne, he said, by the middle class. He also embraced the of tariffs as a negotiating tool and as a revenue raiser. He suggested he'd even support a tariff on carbon. And he said several times he does not believe that tariffs would raise consumer prices. He also vowed to cut spending, but without touching Social Security or Medicare. And he spoke a lot about sanctions. He both said that he would support stronger sanctions on Russia, but he also said that Trump believes that the US has gone too far on sanctions and that it has driven countries away from using the US dollar. And then finally he did touch on the independence of the Federal Reserve. Take a listen.

[Melissa Lee]

You think that there should be independence? I think on monetary policy decisions, the.

[Guy Adami]

FOMC should be independent.

[Megan Casella]

And Melissa Bessant had initially suggested that a shadow Fed chair should be nominated to sort of limit Jay Powell's influence. But clearly today backing off that stance.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Megan, thank you. Megan Casella seemed like there are no big surprises, which is a great thing for Wall Street.

[Guy Adami]

Independent Fed is one of the greatest things about this country. I know most people probably don't even think about that on a day to day basis, but when you walk around with that blue passport in your pocket, part of it is our central bank, the ability to navigate monetary policy because otherwise interest rates are extremely, extremely political. The other thing about sanctions backing off of sanctions not being as aggressive because people lose confidence in the dollar. That's a fascinating thought. And people would think that would not be Trump' on some level. If you think about how a lot of people would associate tariffs and sanctions, they're very different things. That's fascinating.

[Tim Seymour]

Think when he it seems as though the bond market took a leg higher, yields went lower. On the back of some of his commentary maybe justified. And I get I said last night I thought that was an inspired pick for Treasury. Also saying I think Tim agrees with this. I think this bond rally is going to be somewhat short lived. And I'll say what I said last night, we're one bad auction away from being right back to 4.8.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Taiwan, semi big jump investors piling in after strong results. How demand for air is fueling profits to record highs and whether there's more room to run in this name. Plus hitting the bullseye sort of target holiday sales blowing past expectations. But profits seem to be a different story. How the numbers stacked up and what investors thought about the results. Don't go anywhere. Fast Money's back into.

[Frank Holland]

This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC.

[Unknown]

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[Melissa Lee]

Every day thousands of Comcast engineers and technologists create connectivity solutions that change the way we work, live and play. Like Kunle, a Comcast engineer who is focused on revolutionizing the in home WI fi experience today and for the next generation. Kunle builds powerful Xfinity WI fi devices that deliver a fast, reliable connection with capacity to connect hundreds of high bandwidth devices at once and next level latency for the applications of the future like augmented and virtual reality and cloud gaming. Learn more at ComcastCorporation.com WiFi weekdays at.

[Frank Holland]

5Am Be first on world markets, first to the global business conversation. Get a jump on the investing day every day with Frank Holland. Success starts early. Worldwide exchange 5:00am Eastern CNBC.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of Taiwan semi up nearly 4% after a big earnings beat. The Nvidia supplier showing no signs of slowdown in the spending boom. Net profits up 57% year over year, hitting a new record high. New record? Yes. Its high performance computing division which includes AI and 5G continuing to drive sales sales Taiwan Semi CFO telling analysts on the call that after tripling in 2024, revenue from AI is expected to double this year. But can the company keep delivering on such high expectations? How are you feeling about Taiwan Semi?

[Bonwin]

A lot better than I'm feeling about Apple. Frankly. At 23 and a half times you're talking about 57%, 57% earnings growth, 39% revenue growth and yes, I understand that there's concern around AI, but would you rather be AI adjacent and have that exposure or would you rather be exposed to automobiles or smartphones? And that's perhaps part of the reason why we saw some of the Apple sell off today is that they were indicating that they are seeing weakness in some of these other tertiary markets. So I think this is a situation where management has aligned with a secular trend and at least for the interim it's probably positive.

[Melissa Lee]

But are we immune from China tensions with Taiwan Semi?

[Guy Adami]

Here we go. There we go.

[Tim Seymour]

Definitely, definitely not. But I'll say this, we like to play, play a lot of games on.

[Melissa Lee]

So many I can't even keep track. We should have a catalog of games.

[Tim Seymour]

You know, somebody out there probably does. But one of the games we play is Mel, if you had told me last night the Taiwan Semi would come out with the numbers that they did with the commentary around AI, where's Nvidia going to trade? Given the sell off we've seen since.

[Melissa Lee]

True.

[Tim Seymour]

I would have said oh my God. Stocks and be a 4 and a 5.

[Guy Adami]

It was at one point.

[Tim Seymour]

At one point, Tim. But look where it closed.

[Guy Adami]

Look at that. Look where it closed. I teed that one right up for you.

[Tim Seymour]

You did. So that I find really interesting against the backdrop of the aforementioned twice in one night.

[Melissa Lee]

That tells me, Mike, that that Nvidia might be running up against some resistance. But where does that leave me on Taiwan Semi? Where does it leave you on Taiwan Semi?

[Mike Coe]

Yeah, I mean to Bono in point, obviously I think Taiwan Semi is more attractive on a, you know, growth at a reasonable price, if we'll, we'll call it that. Of course there has been some volatility in their operating results over the course of the last several years. So at 23 and a half times, I think the, you know, the 10 year average multiple on a forward basis is probably closer to 17. But I mean this is a pretty positive backdrop that they're talking about. So you know, we did see, I would say a lot of speculative upside call buying. I think it traded 600,000 contracts or something like that today which was more than four times the average. And I think that's probably not a bad way to speculate on further upside for the name.

[Melissa Lee]

There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Frank Holland]

Sales decking the halls. But a ho ho hold up on profits. Why Target's holiday beat wasn't all sleigh bells and good cheer and what it means for the retailers place among the competition. Plus, from crypto coins to ETFs and now a Bitcoin bond ETF, the latest way to play the crypto craze and how bitcoin proxies like microstrategy factor into the equation. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.

[Unknown]

The $150 billion pet industry is booming as people absolutely love their dogs. If you're looking for a solid investment, Dogtopia the name to know. With 300 locations across North America, it's the largest, leading and fastest growing pet franchise offering a recurring revenue membership model. Dogtopia offers safe, open play, dog daycare, boarding and spa services. Want a recession resistant franchise? Check out Dogtopia because every dog and dog parent deserve it. Go to dogtopia.com to learn more.

[Frank Holland]

Global markets up to the minute front page news. Wake up to Frank Holland at Worldwide exchange weekdays 5am Eastern. CNBC Live. Ambitiously.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to FAST Money. Money Target share is missing the mark today despite reporting strong holiday sales. The retailer raising its Q4 sales forecast on record high holiday shopping. But its profit outlook remained flat, indicating that those Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals drove the bulk of the sales. Today's drop further widens the gap between Target and Wal Mart which is up nearly 70% in the past past year. So is the time to check out of Target. The problem though, Mike, is is that Wal Mart has that valuation problem as well.

[Mike Coe]

Wal Mart does have a valuation problem a little bit, but, but I will say the following and that is that they are doing better on the top line. They have basically more consistent foot traffic as a result of, you know, basically the grocery business that they're increasingly capturing. And I think that's one of the important things to look at when you're looking at these kinds of companies is basically it's a market share question. I like to see the top line growing at least as fast as GDP growth. Wal Mart is exceeding on that, on that metric and Target is actually falling behind. It's not, it's not even keeping pace with the economy or inflation in terms of revenues and that's a little bit problematic.

[Guy Adami]

So on a day when we got a retail sales number that was very strong and really shows the elements that are consumer included in the GDP number are essentially implying a 3.3% for Q GDP. By the way. Consumers better, there's no question. And what we heard from Target is apparel and toys are actually doing better. The extended promotional timeline, I mean, you know, that doesn't really bother me. We all knew that's where things were going and I don't think they're the only ones. I think it's a story of some management changes. I think, I think at this point you're neutral to positive on target. I don't know how you're negative especially given the backdrop of the consumer summer and where again this stock has come from.

[Melissa Lee]

So Brian Cornell should go.

[Guy Adami]

No, I'm saying that they announced some changes to the management team. I think Brian Cornell is fine. I do think there have been some issues that I think are kind of prove me stories here but I think you've priced in a lot of bad news there.

[Bonwin]

Yeah, I agree. A lot of bad news is priced out. I think the would you rather target a Wal Mart? I think is a is a separate issue. One thing that I will say is I think some of the metrics that we saw here are positive for BJ's and Costco. You saw that Target360 subscription. That was one of the leaders in terms of driving growth forward. And when you just think about maybe some of the bifurcated issues around the consumer right now. If you are going to have to do promotionals and if you are going to be in the essentials business, you probably want at least some of those revenues to be augmented by a subscription model that allows you to promote and get and right size inventory and still have some type of revenue uplift from that.

[Tim Seymour]

Target's been cut in half since 2021. Number one, this is I mean Wall Street's always bullish about everything. This is a stock by the way that only 41% of analysts have buys. 56% are hold I think the average price targets 142 ish. So Tim's right. I mean it's hard to press here but to me it certainly feels like it's going to go back down to those November lows which I think were 121.

[Melissa Lee]

Well, meantime, another call here to join the Fast Money live waiting list. Thanks to an overwhelming response from our loyal Fast Money fans out there, we have sold out in record time. But if you missed out, don't worry, we might still be able to find a ticket for you. You can join the wait list. You'll be notified of future events as well. So head on over to CNBC events.com/fast.

[Guy Adami]

Money wait list and just notified of future events. That that alone is recent. We don't know what's going to happen next. Anything could happen on that wait list. I don't either but they're going to be good ones so. Right Guy.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, maybe Tim's band will play at a future event.

[Melissa Lee]

That would be fun.

[Tim Seymour]

Wouldn't it be?

[Melissa Lee]

That would be great.

[Tim Seymour]

People that don't know Tim is an accomplished drummer and he's got great pipes that go with those.

[Melissa Lee]

Absolutely Blue. Maybe we'll take some pipes.

[Tim Seymour]

Your voice, your voice.

[Melissa Lee]

Maybe requests can come in.

[Guy Adami]

You know what, we should do that to the highest bidder, to the highest.

[Tim Seymour]

Charity bidder, of course, for Tim to serenade them. Oh, you imagine.

[Guy Adami]

What have we done here?

[Tim Seymour]

It's like Frank's really not gone downhill fast.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, a new approach to investing in crypto could be on the way. Why bitcoin bonds are generating buzz and how individual investors could get in on the trade. Thrive CEO Matt Cole joins us with all the details next. More Fast Money, right?

[Frank Holland]

Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks bouncing between gains and losses throughout the day, but ultimately finishing lower. The Dow and S and P down about 2. 10 of a percent, snapping three day winning streaks. And the Nasdaq falling nearly a percentage. Shares of Uber getting a boost today. The ride share stock getting bullish calls from both Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo in recent days. Uber is now up nearly 14% so far this year and UNH, dropping more than 6% today. The insurance stock missing revenue expectations but beating earnings estimates well, Bitcoin clinging to the 100k level just days before President Elect Trump's inauguration. And a new wave of digital currency innovation could be on the way. Strive Asset Management filing for a new bitcoin bond ETF giving investors exposure to crypto through corporate debt rather than directly holding underlying tokens. The fund would primarily invest in bonds from companies like MicroStrategy, which now holds 450,000 Bitcoin. Strive CEO Matt Cole joins us here on Set for more. Matt, great to have you with us.

[Matt Cole]

Thanks for having me.

[Melissa Lee]

I assume that it's a, it's a pretty concentrated portfolio then since there are only a handful of companies that actually do that. That.

[Matt Cole]

Yeah, yeah. So to start there's only a handful of companies. The tam on the of these companies of the actual convertible bonds is about $10 billion. But interestingly, when you even look at those companies or companies that have not issued these convertible bonds yet, there's a lot of desire. So there's a lot of desire for more supply if you just think about Econ one on one. And then there's also a lot of demand clearly from retail investors that haven't been able to access. And so I think what you're going to see over the next year is just a shift up in supply and a shift up in demand as there's a democratization of access to these bonds.

[Melissa Lee]

How do you know that the convertibles that are issued by these companies are actually going to be deployed and buying bitcoin, I mean, sometimes when they file, they don't necessarily. It'll say general corporate purposes.

[Matt Cole]

Yeah. So our job is to say, do we reasonably expect them to buy bitcoin? And so this kind of gets into the definition of how we define a bitcoin bond. And so my background, I'm a fixed income background, worked at CalPERS for 16 years prior to joining Strive. And if you go back to the green bond era, a green bond was a bond issued by a corporation to invest in solar panels for their roof or something like that. And as long as we reasonably think that they're going to be deploying into bitcoin, we define that as a bitcoin bond.

[Guy Adami]

Fascinating stuff. And when I think about risk reward, and again from a credit perspective perspective, you know, aside from the fact that credit investors in a cap structure have, certainly they're higher in the cap structure than equity investors. But when I think about a microstrategy, and I'm not suggesting they're on the, on the, on the eve of a credit event, but I would almost think that the risk reward here for buying a bond that's linked to a company who could have huge credit exposure because they're wildly levered to the price of bitcoin isn't a great trade off of risk reward for a bond that, you know, and to me help us understand also for investors what the return profile of these bonds is. Are we talking about correlation to bitcoin returns?

[Matt Cole]

Yeah. So to answer your first question, you have to figure out how do you break these bonds? Right. Because there's always a way to break a bond. And right now with microstrategy, the value of the total aggregate debt versus their Bitcoin is about 25%. So you would need a decrease of, call it 75% in the price of microstrategy. But then they also have a laddered maturity schedule. So they don't have 100% of that debt due in any year. It's due over many years. And so if you're a bitcoin bull, it's very hard to break these bonds. And we're talking about a major decline. And then not only a decline, but it has to basically flatline there for them to really have real solvency issues and not be able to do things like, like issue a little bit more equity to cover their Their actual like first maturity. And so if you think about it that way, there's a lot of bitcoin bear scenarios where these bonds are going to pay off at par. And so that creates a really interesting risk return ratio where on the upside they're designed to give about 75% of the upside of the exposure to MicroStrategy, at least in the issuance of microstrategy debt. And then in, in most reasonable bearish scenarios they'll pay back at par. And so that creates an interesting risk return scenario from a Sharpe ratio perspective. Yes, it may not return the same as MicroStrategy, but you're getting a good chunk of the upside with limited downside unless everything goes really bad. And if everything goes really bad, then you're not going to do well, whether you're in the equity or bitcoin or the debt.

[Melissa Lee]

If you're an investor and you're looking at these convertible bonds that are deemed bitcoin bonds, for instance, it seems that you would probably want to go with the biggest issuer, the biggest company that would be MicroStrategy, which has been at this as a bitcoin treasury company for quite some time. They are the trailblazer. What is the advantage to buying the ETF and having a diversified, to the extent that it can be diversified basket of bonds? Is it just the liquidity aspect that you're gaining? Because it would seem that you would want to be in the sort of the premier name in this arena.

[Matt Cole]

So my mentor in fixed income told me there's never a bad bond, there's only bad prices. Right. And so different bonds have different risk return profile. And microstrategies bonds are safer. They also traded a substantially lower spread than the other bonds. So you really have to think about this on how do you break the different bonds? And so it's not as simple as saying microstrategy good, riot bad or Mara bad. You have to factor in the price as well. And I think that the other bonds, because of how much extra juice that they have in them, they're actually pretty interesting. But that could be true today, it might not be true tomorrow. And so you have to think about exposure to convertible bonds in this space on an actively managed basis and always factor in the price that these bonds trade at. But Right now, yes, MicroStrategy is the 300 pound gorilla in this space.

[Melissa Lee]

What is the management fee? Just quickly on this.

[Matt Cole]

So can't talk about the details of the fund. Yeah, it's not, but we can go deep on convertible bonds.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, Matt, great to have you. Thank you so much.

[Matt Cole]

Thank you very much Mike.

[Melissa Lee]

Co you going to scoop some of these up?

[Mike Coe]

It's not for me necessarily but you know, I mean first of all I come from an options trading background and a lot of options traders tend to do a lot of convert or and I think that's an important element of this is that when people think about an ETF that invests in bonds, this is not lqd, this is not hygiene or H Y, L B or tlt. The reason is because most of the issuance and certainly all of the issuance for MicroStrategy are convertible bonds. And that means they have an embedded call option. That's the conversion price to the underlying stock. So when you buy that bond you're senior in the cap structure of the company but you're getting a call option essentially for some participation in the upside move in Bitcoin. The way I like to think about it is MicroStrategy is basically buying call spreads on Bitcoin and the buyers of these bonds are buying that higher strike call.

[Tim Seymour]

Real quick. You can see how quickly this has matured. I mean there was a point a month and a half, two months ago where microstrategies was trading like a 3x levered Bitcoin. Now it's back in line to the way Bitcoin is trading. So with the maturity of this, these instruments I think get a little more interesting.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, more 2025 acronym reveals. Van Owen and the defending champ are laying out their picks. The word hope will carry them to the top next. Plus two banks diverging as results keep rolling in the numbers that Morgan Stanley and Bank of America moving in opposite directions when Fast Money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money. All week long our traders are revealing their 2025 acronyms and their trades to watch. Today we start off with our reigning champ, Camp Mico. His winning acronym, Brave put up the best fight thanks to bitcoin which surged 122% last year. Followed by real estate. Let's Anglo, Anglo, Gold, Ashanti. Excuse me. It broke up in a really strange way in the prompter value in emerging markets. Overall he was up 34%. So Mike, what do you think?

[Guy Adami]

What's value?

[Melissa Lee]

Are you still needing play by the rules?

[Mike Coe]

Well, no, no, no. As far as value is concerned there are ETFs that track the S and P value index and that's what that was referring to. This year I'm actually incorporating some of the same principles but to make it simpler to track I'm basically just choosing equity like tickers so either ETFs or equities. And this year's acronym is Rising. The R is for rsp. RSP is the ETF that tracks the equal weight S and P index. The equal weight index gets about comparable top line and bottom line growth to the regular s and P500. The big difference is that it's trading closer to its five year average multiple where the S and P is trading at a premium. I is for ibit. Ibit, that's the ETF that tracks Bitcoin. S is for schh, that is an ETF that has REITs in it which is actually not that dissimilar from my basically the mortgage backed securities bet that I was making before. It's kind of a way to get fixed income total return but still have some hedge against inflation. ISE for inda, that's the ETF that invests in India. N is for Nance as in Nancy Pelosi. This is an actively managed ETF that Unusual Whales created. It tracks basically the trades of Democratic members of Congress and it has actually outperformed the S and P since it was issued back in 2023. And G is for G O, O GL Alphabet. But I'm just trying to make sure that the acronym adheres to the sort of tightened up rules of the game this year.

[Melissa Lee]

It's not tightened. They used last year nobody played by. I mean there's some people who just including the winner flaunted the rules last year and this year we're just cracking down so it's not tightened. They are the same rules.

[Guy Adami]

But I like how he pointed out he's playing by the rules this year as opposed to last year.

[Melissa Lee]

That last year would.

[Guy Adami]

He did great. He won.

[Melissa Lee]

Very long acronym but nice one Rising means supercalifragilis expialidocious.

[Tim Seymour]

Was it available Mike? I mean holy bleep.

[Mike Coe]

I wanted bond vigilantes.

[Bonwin]

He won. He must be doing something right.

[Melissa Lee]

Bonwin's 2024 acronym DIGS you went after sectors and commodities. Japan your top dog up 30% biotech, gold, small caps. This year you're focused on on specific stocks. So which is your acronym this year it's boom.

[Bonwin]

And I'm sure I'm already going to get slapped around because you know Broadcom is the ticker technically starts so well it's boom or bust. And listen the goal here is to win and outperform. This isn't about necessarily the best risk adjust rewards but essentially I think the enthusiasm Around AI and AI adjacent is going to continue you I want exposure to Broadcom, I want their vertical integration, I want their custom chip exposure and I'm doubling down with Oracle in terms of their database and cloud. I really want, I really think this is going to be. If we're going to lift and outperform this is likely what's going to take us there. Occidental, it was a laggard last year. I think clearly you've seen energy start to outperform whether it be in distillates or nat gas or crude and I want that exposure. I want exposure to the Permian, I want actually some of their carbon emission credits that they qualify for as well and then MasterCard clearly you can have whatever opinion you may have about the consumer but we are continuing to see our performance in travel and leisure and I want this international type of capture here. Boom or bust and hopefully it's boom.

[Tim Seymour]

If you had a rank Karen's URI with for an R or Bonoin's B that's way better.

[Melissa Lee]

At least it's the first letter of the company. Using R for URI is just egregious.

[Guy Adami]

Yeah, United.

[Melissa Lee]

It's basically a rule.

[Tim Seymour]

I mean you would throw. I mean if we were in the National Football League it'd be Cowb throwing a flag. I mean 100% I don't want to.

[Guy Adami]

Look like a sore loser because I didn't even make like the. I didn't even make the standings. I was so low. But I mean I'm the only one that played by the rules. No, no, stop it.

[Tim Seymour]

You're the only one to play the clam. My clam is by the rules.

[Guy Adami]

Your clam. Your clam performed very well.

[Bonwin]

Last what's a blessing.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming out, more bank earnings filtering in the numbers that had Morgan Stanley jumping and bank of America dropping. That is Next, more fast money into Take a look at this video from just a few moments ago. SpaceX just launching its super heavy starship rocket successfully caught the booster at the launch pad in Texas. It is the second time they've accomplished such a feat which a few years ago was thought impossible. But of note, SpaceX has lost contact with the second stage percentage of the rocket but still extraordinary progress there more big banks reporting today. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America shares moving in opposite directions after their results. Morgan Stanley seen particular strength in its equity and fixed income trading businesses. Overall profit more than double to $3.7 billion for the quarter share surging 4% to set a record close bank of America meantime down about a percent despite more than doubling its profits. Investment bank fees also rose 44% the previous quarter. What really stood out to me, at least for Morgan Stanley was the retail trader is back I think was up 29% and they're more active in trading.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, Tim talks about this but they have very three distinct business verticals that they're doing well in all three of them. So good for Morgan Stanley and it sort of makes sense. Well I mean given what we heard from Goldman Sachs, different companies similar. So Morgan Stanley makes sense. You mentioned bank of America. Quickly, that's the one that should be concerning because if you do think rates are going higher, actually BAC doesn't went to that and the recent level traded up to as high as we last saw in the, excuse me, the fall of 2021.

[Bonwin]

Yeah, I mean I do think this makes the case for the pure play. Investment banks know the advisory and trading fees I would expect given we're expecting deregulation, I would expect a bit more follow through from some of the regionals and some of the price action today around them was a bit concerning.

[Melissa Lee]

Up next, final trade rates. Final trade time. Mike co.

[Mike Coe]

I have to go with my acronym rising for 2025.

[Melissa Lee]

Tim.

[Guy Adami]

Look, I'm going to take the champ. I'm going to take a piece of the champ with me. I'm going with the G and rising for Google, also known as Alphabet also could be wrong by the way. Anyway, Google G Bonoin.

[Bonwin]

Listen, I think Occidental has some upside. Was a laggard. I'm sticking with the energy trade.

[Melissa Lee]

Oxy, the O and boom guy.

[Tim Seymour]

See what you're gonna get when you come to this. I mean it's just funny live.

[Melissa Lee]

There's a wait list so sign up. There's still time but we might have more seats.

[Tim Seymour]

You know I'm gonna go to my tube and give you Uber. Mel.

[Melissa Lee]

Thanks for watching Fast Money. See you back here tomorrow at 5. Bad money starts now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Global markets up.

[Frank Holland]

To the Minute, Front page news, Wake up to Frank Holland and Worldwide exchange, weekdays 5am Eastern, CNBC live Ambitiously.