CNBC Fast Money: “Big Drop In Energy Stocks And Holiday Spending” (9/3/25)

Host: Dominic Chu (in for Melissa Lee)
Panelists: Steve Grasso, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Special Guests: Halima Croft (RBC Capital Markets), Steve Kovac (CNBC), Mackenzie Sigalos (CNBC), Tom Callahan (NASDAQ Private Market), Gabrielle Fon Rouge (CNBC Retail Reporter), Carter Worth (“Chartmaster”)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into a sharp sell-off in energy stocks, skepticism around the sector’s outlook, and concerns over increased oil supply amid demand uncertainty. The team also discusses tepid AI results from Salesforce, Figma’s tough IPO report, and early warnings of softer holiday spending affecting retailers. Earnings moves in Alphabet (Google) and American Eagle are examined, as well as a debate about Ferrari’s chart prospects and the rise of private markets.

1. Energy Sector Sell-Off: What’s Next?

[00:48–14:15]

Market Context

• Energy stocks plunged over 2%—the largest decline in two months—wiping out a week’s gains.
• Names hit hardest include ConocoPhillips (announced 20–25% workforce cuts), APA Corp, Diamondback Energy, EOG, Devon, Exxon, Chevron, and Shell.
• Commodities pressure: OPEC+ considering an output hike; supply glut fears; US and global demand concerns; inflation and recessionary signals.

Panel Reactions

• Guy Adami [02:33]: “I’ve tried to be bullish on oil. It has been foolish to be that way, but… it hasn’t really gone up or down.”

  • Notes the sector’s S&P weighting has shrunk to 4%, even smaller than Nvidia’s alone.
  • Recalls Chevron’s massive January 2023 buyback being a sector top.

• Steve Grasso [03:40]: “This is not where growth is going to be… If you look at supply, OPEC+ is going to be adding 800,000 barrels per day… That is just too much supply for where we’re at.”

  • Oil isn’t rising despite bullish geopolitics; oversupply persists.
  • Trump administration’s pro-energy stance more nuclear-focused now.

• Dan Nathan [04:37]: “Oil stocks… have been left for dead. There’s nothing particularly interesting going on there… I just don’t know why you’d go out and buy these stocks.”

  • Questions the rationale for wind energy criticism amid clear energy demand.
  • Wonders why traditional energy isn’t rebounding with these dynamics.

• Karen Feinerman [05:53]: “It’s in my acronym, as I forget, T for terrible… It doesn’t matter at all. When I throw in the towel, that will be the time to buy it.”

  • Despite disciplined management, sector gets no love.
  • Lower oil helps with inflation, but hurts sector.

• Passive investing angle: Energy’s small S&P share means index flows don’t help; everyone wants tech.

  • Guy Adami [07:26]: “Passive investing… absolutely going to win [for large tech companies]. Energy loses.”

Expert Interview: Halima Croft, RBC Capital Markets

[08:21–14:10]

• Halima Croft: “Today’s move was really driven by headlines OPEC might consider adding barrels when they meet Sunday… But most OPEC producers are at full capacity.”

  • Real incremental supply mostly from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait; headline numbers overstate impact.

• Q4 Outlook: “There is concern about an oversupply situation—not just from the US, but Brazil, Guyana coming online.”

  • China buying could taper; visible inventory rises likely.
  • US production to decline—current price “not optimal” for sustained US shale growth.

• Key Quote [11:05]: “Trump… talks about wanting oil at $50… that’s not an optimal price for US production to sustain growth.”

• Crack spreads, refining: Input prices dropping while refined products maintain value. Halima highlights China’s role, OPEC’s calibration challenge.

• Steve Grasso [13:37]: “US companies have lower break-evens [per barrel cost], but OPEC’s need is driven by national budgets.”

2. Tech & Alphabet (Google): All-Time High On Antitrust Win

[14:10–18:13]

• Alphabet surged 9%: Best day since April, after a favorable antitrust ruling.

  • Avoids most severe penalties; keeps Chrome browser, must end exclusive contracts.

• Karen Feinerman [14:47]: “This sort of giant overhang on the stock… has been lifted… Even now, having this removed, that’s huge. I like it here.”

  • Alphabet is “cheapest” among tech megacaps.

• Dan Nathan [15:46]: “The bigger issue is… 90% of queries go through Google, 70% of digital ad revenue… How much more share can they take?”

  • Warns AI competition from OpenAI is a bigger threat than antitrust.
  • “I just don’t understand a 9% gap up…”

• Guy Adami [17:36]: “As much as it’s about that [antitrust], it’s more just a multiple expansion game. Still a cheap stock on a multiple basis.”

3. Earnings: Salesforce, Figma, American Eagle

Salesforce (CRM)
[20:59–22:49]

• Shares down: Despite beating on top and bottom lines, weak guidance and unclear AI contribution.
• Dan Nathan [21:06]: “$100 million recurring on a $44B company… a rounding error. Investors are not buying what they’re selling.”
• Steve Grasso [22:24]: “Growth has really decelerated… You have a lot to prove with AI and if your growth is decelerating, that’s a problem.”

Figma’s First Post-IPO Report
[23:27–27:02]

• Stock tanks: Revenue/earnings in-line, but guidance underwhelms; “may rethink reporting framework,” warning of short-term margin declines.
  • Expenses up, AI product not yet monetized.
• Karen Feinerman [24:36]: “Already the bar was exceedingly high… Coming in a little light, I’m surprised it isn’t down more.”
• Guy Adami [25:22]: “30x revenue, 150x EPS… Have at it people!”
• Dan Nathan [25:45]: “Miss your margin targets right after IPO—this is not good.”
• Steve Grasso [26:36]: “That kind of growth does not support the valuation Guy’s talking about. You probably CAN see a $33 price tag.”

American Eagle (AEO)
[28:08–28:40]

• Stock surges 23% after strong beat.
  • “Sydney Sweeney effect”—marketing campaign credited for results.
  • Karen Feinerman: “But also worth noting: 20% short interest—so rush to cover. Not crazy expensive, but not for me.”

4. Retail & Holiday Spending Concerns

[28:40–32:48]

• Early holiday forecasts negative: PwC survey projects the steepest pullback since pandemic; tariffs limit retailers’ ability to offer discounts.
• Gabrielle Fon Rouge [29:46]: “Gen Z is actually the generation that’s going to pull back the most… planning to cut back by 23%.”
• Gen Z realities: Higher expenses, debt, last year planned to spend 37% MORE, now 23% less.
• Karen Feinerman [31:18]: “I do think if unemployment is in good shape, Christmas will be in good shape as well.”
• Steve Grasso [31:30]: “Gen Z pulling back, but they're looking for experiential again. Boomers, Gen X have money—they’ll be buying the bulk of the gifts.”
• Guy Adami [32:02]: “US consumer spends in just about any circumstances… unless they get scared by a market drop.”

5. Rise of Private Markets

[34:54–39:51]

Guest: Tom Callahan, CEO, NASDAQ Private Market

• Private market liquidity soaring: $3.5B of tenders (employee/company share deals) in 2022, $6.5B in 2023, and an expected $30B in 2025.
  • Private companies waiting longer to IPO (average 15 years).
  • Massive “unicorns”: OpenAI ($500B+), SpaceX ($400B), Anthropic ($180B).
• Retail investors now gaining access via retirement accounts (recent Trump executive order).
  • Key quote [38:15]: “We have tens of millions of nurses and cops and firemen… betting their retirements on private funds.”
  • Warning: Many private companies require company approval to buy/sell & restrict retail access.

6. Ferrari: Technical Analysis

[40:29–43:28]

Carter Worth (“Chartmaster”):

• Ferrari stock rallying post-tariff drop but approaching long-term resistance.
  • “Relative performance is sagging vs. Europe stocks."
  • Recommendation: “Fade this big bounce… It’s a topping formation.”

Panel Reaction:

• Steve Grasso [41:43]: “If the market hits the skids, people pull back from luxury.”
• Dan Nathan [42:00]: “Predisposed to agree with Carter.”

7. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Guy Adami [02:33]: “I’ve tried to be bullish on oil. It has been foolish to be that way.”
• Karen Feinerman [05:53]: “When I throw in the towel, that will be the time to buy it.”
• Dan Nathan [15:46]: “How much more share are they [Google] going to take in an environment where they've already been deemed a monopoly?”
• Tom Callahan [38:15]: “We have tens of millions… betting their retirements on private funds. This asset class… now open to retail. You have to know what questions to ask.”
• Guy Adami [32:02]: “US consumer spends in just about any circumstances… unless they get scared by a market drop.”

8. Segment Timestamps

| Topic | Start | Key Segment | |-----------------------------|----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | Main Market News Start | 00:48 | Oil & Energy sector sell-off, intro by Dominic Chu | | Panel on Energy | 02:30 | Guy, Steve, Dan, Karen on energy stocks & passive flows | | Halima Croft Interview | 08:21 | OPEC supply, US production, Q4 outlook | | Google Antitrust Segment | 14:10 | Antitrust win, Alphabet earnings, panel take | | Salesforce Earnings | 20:59 | CRM AI narrative, growth, buyback | | Figma IPO Report | 23:27 | Margins, high expectations, panel skeptical | | American Eagle Beat | 28:08 | Strong quarter, short squeeze, marketing | | Holiday Spending Outlook | 28:40 | PwC survey, Gen Z pullback, retail expert | | Private Markets | 34:54 | Tom Callahan on tenders, unicorns, risks for retail investors | | Ferrari Chart Analysis | 40:29 | Chartmaster: fade Ferrari, panel agrees |

9. Final Trades

[44:13]

• Steve Grasso: ETH Grayscale Mini Trust (“nothing more bullish than a long ball”)
• Karen Feinerman: Sell covered calls on United Rentals after all-time high
• Dan Nathan: Seller of Google
• Guy Adami: Marathon Petroleum

For more: Visit CNBC Fast Money

Summary by topic; ads, intros, and sponsor credits skipped; original language preserved in cited quotes.