← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Big Drop In Energy Stocks And Holiday Spending 9/3/25
00:43:48
Energy stocks heading lower as oil prices get hit. The latest OPEC headlines fueling that drop, and what one energy expert sees in store for the space heading into the Fall. Plus the shopping data that could hold up the holidays. Why shoppers are spending less on gifts, and the impact it could have on retailers. Fast Money Disclaimer
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. EDWARD Jones, Member, SIPC Being diagnosed with.
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Dominic Chu
Live from the NASDAQ market site right in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. And here's what's on tap tonight. Out of energy oil stocks by far the worst performers in the S and P today. The sector seeing its worst drop in more than two months. What to make of the move and where shares are heading from here? And is it ever too early to count down to Christmas? We're still three months away, but new data already suggests this year might not be so merry for the retailers. We'll break down the winners and losers potentially. Plus, glowing Google shares at records after any trust win, the latest earnings from Salesforce and Figma and why the chartmaster says shares of Ferrari are about to shift into reverse. I'm Dominic Chu and for Melissa Lee tonight, coming to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ marketsite on on the desk around me, Steve Grasso, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We're going to get to that story we brought you last night in just one moment. Alphabet locking in its best day in nearly five months and closing at an all time high. But we're going to start with the big drop in energy stocks. That sector falling more than 2% and erasing a week's worth of gains. ConocoPhillips announcing it will cut its workforce by 20 to 25%. That sent names like APA Corp. Diamondback Energy, EOG Devon Energy all lower in sympathy while the biggest names in energy, Exxon, Chevron and Shell also took a leg lower as well. Feeding the tumble is a commodity getting slammed from all sides. OPEC plus is considering another output hike while tariff concerns, inflation and economic uncertainty in the US as traders worried about demand. Could things get even worse for that space or is there a rebound in store? Ooh, big question Guy to you first.
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Guy Adami
Hello, Dom. Welcome as always.
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Dominic Chu
Thanks for having me.
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Guy Adami
Look, I mean, I've tried to be bullish in oil. It has been foolish to be that way, but it hasn't really gone up or down. I mean, if you look at some of these stocks, for example, Bolero in the refinery space has had a tremendous move off the April lows. Some of these names have been hanging in there. But as you said, the space has been tough. I think it's now 4% of the S&P 500. I think in videos market cap is now greater than the entire energy sector. But I'm not ready to leave it for dead. I'll say this, and we talked about it in the months in the aftermath. Chevron announced a $75 billion stock buyback in January of 2023 that wound up being, if I may use the phrase, the ball's high for the entire sector. And if we remember some of the vitriol that came out of the then Biden administration on the back of that. So it's interesting that that theoretic good news was actually the death knell for the space.
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Dominic Chu
What's interesting is Guy had it kind of halfway, right? Energy is half the size. The entire sector of where Nvidia's current weighting is in the S&P 500. That's how dim the sector has gotten. Steve, is this anything that we want to buy into or is this that proverbial falling knife in markets?
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Steve Grasso
So. So I share Guy's vision that you can find some value plays in this, but this is not where growth is going to be. It's been challenged. Right? Oil prices are challenged. Geopolitical. If I would tell you that we would have the geopolitical environment, where would you say oil is trading at?
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Dominic Chu
Higher, 100 bucks higher. Right.
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Steve Grasso
So if you look at supply, OPEC plus is going to be adding 800,000 barrels per day. That's with the UAE, 300,000. And that's what OPEC, 547,000 barrels per day. So that is just too much supply for where we're at in the marketplace right now. Then look at the Trump administration, by any means necessary. Energy, right. Nuclear, nat gas or.
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Dominic Chu
Yeah, this is drill, baby, drill. And not just that, it's also alternative fuels, but not wind or solar. More tilted as your point towards the nuclear.
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Dan Nathan
The wind is a really important point. I mean, if you think about the Trump administration, the take that they've had on wind, right? And we know this comes at a time where the demand for energy you could say the demand for oil isn't particularly great right now for a whole host of reasons, despite some of the geopolitics that you expect to actually have the price higher. But, but to come at wind energy because it kills the birds or something like, I can't remember exactly what the main reason. I mean, it probably has something to do with the oil lobby. I'm just going to throw that out there. But when you think about the demand for energy, we keep hearing about this from data centers and we keep hearing about the data centers that are going to be built. It just seems like you would want to actually create the capacity for all of this access because we know that bringing a lot of these nuclear reactors online or building new ones, it's going to take years. Right. And so, I don't know, I just think it's kind of a curious situation. I mean, oil stocks, they have been left for dead. There's nothing particularly interesting going on there. And if you have OPEC that is thinking about obviously increasing supply, I just don't know why you'd go out and buy these stocks.
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Dominic Chu
Why would that, Karen? I mean, from a value manager's perspective, oil and gas is probably a good trade if you want to look at it fundamentally that we need energy, that nat gas is a proven way to get it in a relatively clean format compared to, say, other fuels. Why is this traction not happening for oil and gas companies and stocks?
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Karen Feinerman
I mean, I thought that for a while that we were due for a bounce and the stock was, I mean, the whole sector rather was much higher than where it is now. It's in my acronym, as I forget, T for terrible. It's, it's really been bad. And you know, I think the Trump administration, it's nice to have oil here, right? When you think about we're flirting with inflation numbers that are really too high, think about if energy were to add fuel to that fire. So I'm fairly, you know, I'm still long. That's been the wrong place to be for a long time. The story has been, wow, these are newly disciplined companies, right? We're not going to see any more of that over drilling. We're not going to see, we're going to see balance sheets that are in good shape. We're going to see cash flow that's going back to shareholders. All of that's true. And yet it doesn't matter at all. I mean, it's. I, when I throw in the towel, that will be the time to buy it.
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Dominic Chu
I can think about it. Sure.
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Steve Grasso
You think about passive investing, all the.
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Dominic Chu
Index investors out there, exactly how much.
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Steve Grasso
Money is coming in to other spaces other than oil. No one's sitting there reaching. Even though you see the XLE will have great days and bad days. Everyone wants tech and you're not, you're not reaching for energy in those ETFs in passive world.
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Dominic Chu
All right, guy, I mean, this is one of those scenarios where to that point, passive means every dollar I put into an S&P 500 index fund, only four bucks of which is going to that sector. Right. And only a handful of ads even going to Exxon by the time it's done. Right. It's not in video where $8 of every 100 is going into. Into that.
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Guy Adami
So they lose on that. We've talked about this for a long time. I mean, we've. One of the things we talked about for Apple, the reason why Apple hangs in there as well as it's in over 400 ETFs, of which it's, I think, one of the top 15 holdings and obviously all these indexes as well. So they win. Passive investing, the big companies in that space that Steve just talked about are absolutely going to win. What you have to be concerned about if there is some rotation for whatever reason, when passive becomes active, it's never active on the way up. And I think that's where energy does wind up, by the way.
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Dominic Chu
It's a conversation for another time. But active ETFs are growing way faster than passives now. So maybe it's just a matter of time for the stock pickers get in on this action. All right, for more on the headwinds facing energy right now, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets global head of commodity strategy. You know her, Halima Croft. She does this for a living. So you heard the conversation around the table, Halima. It's a supply and a demand issue, Right?
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Halima Croft
Of course. And I think today's move was really driven by headlines that OPEC might consider adding additional barrels when they meet on Sunday. Now they have officially written off the 2.2 million voluntary cut. The question is they move on to this 1.65 million voluntary cut. Do they start slowly unwinding that? The one thing I would say, though is, is that is a big headline number, but the reality is, is that most of the OPEC producers are producing basically at full capacity. So when we talk about any incremental ad right now, we're really only talking about a small number of countries that can put on those additional barrels. So it'd be Saudi Arabia, the lion's share and then potentially some smaller incremental ads from UAE in Kuwait. But again, it will not be the full headline. 1.6, just as it wasn't 2.2 was really only about half of that that came onto the market. And before today's price action, early in the week we had Brett sort of, you know, approaching $70 as there were concerns about what's the path forward on Russian production, what's the Trump administration policy going to be towards Russia. So again, I think we do have to pay attention to what happens on Sunday and I don't think been made yet on what the policy will be.
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Dominic Chu
Halima, I know you focus a lot on OPEC and its partner countries. OPEC plus how much of this story can really be influenced by the US Production that could be coming online and an administration that is looking to put more of a medium to longer term tailwind behind oil and gas when it comes to capacity here in America.
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Halima Croft
Well, so if we go to the fourth quarter, there is a concern in the market about an oversupply situation not just because of the United States, but because of countries like Brazil, Guyana, production coming on and a concern that we're going to start to see a growth in stockpile that essentially China has been doing a lot of buying. Will they basically say we're tapped out and will we start to see inventory builds in visible markets like that is the theory of the case for a, you know, a very shaky fourth quarter for all markets. Again, what we simply don't know is what the OPEC policy is going to be. And frankly, as we look out to next year, we see U.S. production declining because this is not an optimal price for US Production to grow. So in a sense, OPEC and these, these sovereign producers that have lower cost of production, they are going to be more in a dominant position going forward.
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Karen Feinerman
Helena, it's Karen. Thanks for being with us. Talk to us about peak shale again.
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Halima Croft
I mean, if we look at the really important question is at what price do you need to ustain really robust US production growth? And this has been the sort of, I think contradiction or the, you know, the confusing part of the Trump policy because he is very much a drill baby, drill president. Like he really talks about American energy dominance, not sort of an economic story for the US but also for a foreign policy story. But the price points that he throws out when he talks about wanting oil at $50, you know, potentially low 60s, that's not an optimal price for US production to sustain growth. Levels. So again, the question is, going forward, if we stay in this muted price environment, where are the additional barrels coming from? Now production is set to come on from Brazil and Guyana because other more long lead time projects. Now production is coming on regardless of price, but the US Is much more price sensitive. So if we stay in this muted price environment, we have the expectation that we will see declines from US Producers next year.
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Guy Adami
Alima, I'll use the term. You know it. Our audience knows as well. But crack spreads continue to widen and the companies that buy crude and sell refined products are winning. And that's been going on now for a while. Do you think that continues again?
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Halima Croft
So for me, I don't really cover the companies, but I just would say as we look out towards the end of the year, I do think we have to again pay attention to a couple of key factors like where do we think China is going to shake out? Because we do have a lot of concerns over the economic situation in China. Are we going to see China essentially slow down? What does that mean for really builds across the complex? Are we going to start to see crude builds in very visible markets? What has been helping the oil price, you know, over summer is, is that we haven't seen crude builds in visible markets. So do we start to see a real change as we go into Q4 or we're expecting a more seasonally soft market? Again, I think there's a lot to be sort of up in the air in terms of how OPEC has to think about this. Because if you are going to start to bring on more barrels, the question is like, how would you calibrate it given the concerns that are out there?
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Dominic Chu
All right. Halima Croft had a commodity strategy over at rbc. Thank you very much for that. We appreciate it. We'll see you soon. Holy mo.
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Halima Croft
Thank you.
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Dominic Chu
All right, Steve. I mean, she was a former analyst with the CIA. She kind of knows a little bit about what she's talking about here. What do you think? A lot of it, yeah.
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Steve Grasso
You know, when you look at break evens though, counterintuitively, US Companies have lower break evens because the break evens for OPEC are based on their national budgets. So those are higher. Their cost to pull it out of the ground is cheaper, but they need a certain level to supply for their, their budgets. So I think that OPEC needs to hold on to market share and USA needs to keep pumping. But they have, they have the ability to watch how much they're pulling out of the ground here versus there, there.
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Dominic Chu
You Go. All right. Meantime, another check on Alphabet right now. After last night's ruling in the antitrust case against Google, the company avoiding the most severe consequences proposed by the Justice Department, allowing Google to keep its Chrome browser, but barring the company from exclusive contracts. The 9% gain was its best since April 9th. Apple also higher. Google pays the tech giant billions of dollars every year to be the default search engine on iPhones. The stock also getting a boost late in the session on reports it's planning an AI powered web search tool for Siri to rival the likes of Open AI. Karen, what do we think here?
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Karen Feinerman
I like it.
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Dominic Chu
Yeah.
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Karen Feinerman
Yes. I mean, you know this, this sort of giant overhang on the stock, one of two has been lifted, which was how bad were the remedies going to be? And they turned out to be way less bad than what could have happened. The other thing about. All right, is search under threat. So we're going to see them lose share in search. But I think the valuation here, I know it's at an all time high, but the valuation here is still not, as Guy would say, undemanding. Right. And they have a lot of cash and I mean there's a lot of things going right here. So last night I said if I owned none, I would have bought yesterday in the after hours. I still think that when you look at the whole tech space, you look at the Bank 7, you look at the valuations, Alphabet is the cheapest and now having this removed, that's huge. So I like it here, I think, you know, and you got Waymo and you've got Google Cloud and you got YouTube and you got still a great.
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Dominic Chu
Search and you have a ceiling that's been now lifted higher. Right.
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Dan Nathan
See Karen, I are kind of on different sides of this and I think Karen obviously was right last night when Stock was up 5, 6%. She said she buy it right here and you know, if they can pull up a day chart, not, not that one. It's really fascinating actually. Like the opening ticket was the low tick of the day and then you see it just basically flatline within a 1% sort of thing. It just tells you like there are folks out there just buying this stock. They're sitting there on the bid. Look at that. You don't see that sort of price action too often, especially when you see a massive gap that's equal to hundreds of billions of dollars. Now going back to the fundamentals, I have not been in the camp that there was some big overhang to the extent like the worst case scenario. Was a very low probability outcome in my opinion. Right. And so if you think about this being lifted, it's the bigger issue to me is really the fact that 90% of queries on the Internet go through Google. 70% of the advertising revenue digital is going to Google. So how much more share are they going to take in an environment where they've already been deemed to be a monopoly? The judge did say that there are many challenges within this space. Those challenges are squarely at Google. So when you think about them having to cannibalize themselves with these AI overlays for their searches, not only are they going to have to convince consumers that are already hooked on open air, OpenAI has like 600 million okay monthly active users and that's just scratching the surface right now. So it's growing faster than any app that's ever existed on the planet. And you could say well they're coming after squarely an Alphabet. So to me, I don't mean to be really negative about it. I just don't understand a 9% gap given something that I don't think was like a huge discount in the name. And I think the bigger issue is really what's coming at them right now to their core business that make no mistake and is a monopoly.
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Dominic Chu
Does that mean guy that Gemini is not enough or even the endeavor to make it competitive with all these other AI tools?
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Guy Adami
I get what Dan is saying, 100%. The point we were making last night is as much as is about that it's more just a multiple expansion game. Because I think that the announcement last night in my opinion gave an all clear to go from the multiple is trading at which is trough multiple to what should be a market multiple which is somewhere between 22 and 23 times next year's numbers which is 11 bucks. We had Julian Emanuel on last night by the way whose best case scenario said he could see the S and p trading at 30 times. And you know, I don't know if that's going to come to fruition but the point is all those things being equal, it's still a cheap stock just in multiple basis.
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Dominic Chu
All right, that's the story on Google coming up. We've got our eyes on a couple of names reporting earnings just in the past hour. The details out of Salesforce, American Eagle and figma's first report since going public. All that next plus shop till you stop. Right. Why this holiday season might not bring the cheer a lot of people are looking for and what it could mean for retailers. Don't go anywhere fastest back in two. The world runs on energy and as.
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Tom Callahan
Demand increases, Sempra is rising to help meet the challenge.
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Dominic Chu
Through our Texas and California utilities, we're.
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Dan Nathan
Investing billions to help power these booming economies.
- [18:53]
Tom Callahan
We're building tomorrow's energy infrastructure today, modernizing one of North America's largest energy networks with next generation technology to power the everyday lives of nearly 40 million people.
- [19:05]
Dominic Chu
That's positive energy. Learn about Sempra's financial results@sempra.com investors ahead of the NFL season kickoff.
- [19:14]
Dan Nathan
Jerry Jones live and in person with.
- [19:16]
Dominic Chu
Michael Ozanian on the Cowboys rising valuation.
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Dan Nathan
State of the NFL and the US.
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Dominic Chu
Upcoming season closing bell overtime 4 Eastern.
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Dan Nathan
Tomorrow and streaming on CNBC.
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Carter Worth
Plus.
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Dominic Chu
Welcome back to Fast MONEY and Earnings Alert. Right now on Salesforce, shares are under pressure despite top and bottom line beats the software company forecasting a weak current quarter. The conference call is underway. Steve's cnbc. Steve Kovac has the latest details on Salesforce. Steve, that is a little light which is dragging on shares right now. So it wasn't a pretty picture going into this report anyway. With shares of Salesforce down about 23% year to date. Now revenue is up 10% year over year in this report, but no signs yet how much artificial intelligence is contributing. Last we heard from CEO Marc Benioff, Salesforce's AI product, which they call Agent Force, is on a $100 million annual run rate. But that's nothing compared to the projected AI sales for leaders like OpenAI and Microsoft, which are all expecting over $10 billion in AI sales this year. And this has been a trend, Dom, that we've been seeing playing out in the software space, difficulty incorporating all that AI and driving growth from their products. We've seen it at companies like Adobe as well. Now the call just started. Nothing concrete from Benioff as far as how Agent Force is performing, but and any more ideas how they can use it to juice the AI business? We'll be monitoring it as it goes on over the next hour, but after that call, you can catch Benioff on Mad Money with Jim Cramer next hour. Dom. All right, Steve Kovac with the latest on Salesforce. Thank you very much on CRM there, Dan.
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Dan Nathan
Yes, sir.
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Dominic Chu
What do we think about whether or not this Salesforce trade is one where you can make it the indicative trade of AI?
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Dan Nathan
You can't right now. I mean, $100 million recurring revenue on a company that's meant to do $44 billion in sales. It's a it a rounding error. And this is a company that's been telling a story about agentic AI for a while. If you think about what the first kind of use case was was consumer, you know, customer relations or consumer management. I mean the name of this company is CRM, right? So they've been talking about this for two and a half, three years. I believe Marc Benioff will figure it out. I don't think as far as from a competitive situation, at least in the enterprise, you know, like they're going to be so far behind but they just need a customer like uptake of these products and they're not getting it. And that's one of the reasons why this stock has been in the penalty box. The last thing I'll just say is like them announcing a $20 billion buyback. It's probably not what you want to hear for a company that was once a growth company that now has high single digit revenue growth and that sort of thing. So to me I think that investors right now you can just see by the performance of the stock, not just down four and a half percent right now but the way it's traded over the last couple of years, they're not buying what they're selling. And there's a lot of companies have gained hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars a market cap based on the story and the performance that they are getting out of AI.
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Dominic Chu
If there were a lot of reasons to break a lot of eggs to fuel growth, it would be the AI story. But it's not playing out right now with Salesforce. Steve?
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Steve Grasso
Yeah, Benioff is a great leader but when you look at the growth, the growth has really decelerated. And when you look at their nearest comparative comparison, when I look at ServiceNow, ServiceNow has a growth rate of 20%. CRM has a growth rate of 8% and ServiceNow really dominates that IT service area, 50% market share. You have a lot to prove with AI and if your growth is decelerating, that's a problem.
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Dominic Chu
All right, that's the trade there. Coming up on the show, more earnings action. The details from Figma's first reports is going public as well as the numbers out of American Eagle, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and more. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ marketsite in Times Square. We are back after this break.
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Halima Croft
Ahead.
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Dominic Chu
Of the NFL season kickoff.
- [23:16]
Dan Nathan
Jerry Jones live and in person with.
- [23:18]
Dominic Chu
Michael Ozanian on the Cowboys rising valuation.
- [23:21]
Dan Nathan
State of the NFL and the upcoming.
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Dominic Chu
Season closing bell overtime 4 Eastern tomorrow.
- [23:26]
Dan Nathan
And streaming on CNBC.
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Dominic Chu
Plus welcome back to Fast Money. The hits keep on coming. Another earnings alert here. Shares of Figma plummeting after its first earnings report since going public. The design software company's conference call is underway. Mackenzie Seagalos has the details. Mac, what do we know?
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Halima Croft
So Dom Figma is in sell off mode as investors digest break even EPS revenue that was in line with expectations and then guidance that did actually beat estimates. Now on the call, CEO Dylan Field just said the company may rethink its reporting framework and warned that margins will come down near term.
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
He also stressed Figma will keep chasing.
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Halima Croft
Organic and inorganic growth, even if that's not what investors want to hear.
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
RBC's Rishi Jaloria told me that at these valuation levels, the street was looking.
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Halima Croft
For a blockbuster quarter and faster growth. Now one reason for the slowdown, Figma hasn't yet monetized AI or new products.
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
But it has already built in the costs. So that means that Q2 reflects higher expenses without factoring in potential new revenue streams dominate.
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Dominic Chu
All right, Mackenzie Seagal is with the latest on Figma's results and that drop in the post market. Karen, what do we think here?
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Karen Feinerman
Well, remember, so this stock came out a little more than a month ago at 33. Priced at 33, I think it traded up to 145 on the first day. So already the bar was exceedingly high. So but fast forward to today. All right, stock closed at 68. When you have that kind of just enormous, I don't know, exuberance, call it.
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Dominic Chu
More gap in expectations.
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Karen Feinerman
Yes. Then it's going to be really hard to jump over that. And coming in a little light of that, I'm actually surprised it isn't down more. Right. So I mean, you know, I understand what she's talking about, about them, you know, having expenses up front and hopefully bearing the fruits of that later. That's not good enough when you've had this history in the one month that.
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Dominic Chu
It'S been public in a short amount.
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Guy Adami
Of time, Guy, 30 times revenue, 150 times EPS, which by the way is probably flatline year over year. You tell me if you want. It's as Dan would say, have at it people. But the Karen's point, I'm surprised it's not down more in this quarter.
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Dominic Chu
What do we think, Dan, by the.
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Dan Nathan
Way, you call her Mac, we have to call her Mackenzie. I've not met her face coming on here surrounding the trade as we say.
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Dominic Chu
I've known Mac a good while.
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Dan Nathan
She really did put that together really nicely. I mean the change of Report reporting. This is like two months after you were on a roadshow for an ipo, you know, to miss your operating margin, to miss your margin targets. I mean, this is not good stuff. And you got to remember this is a company that, you know, Adobe tried to buy for $20 billion. I mean, this might have a $20 billion market cap in the not so distant future. And so I just think it's a mess to come out of the gate right after your IPO and have all those things to say. The other thing I'll just say about the IPOs, the recent ones, I mean, a lot of these that had these huge gains that you're talking about early on, they really feel like they're round tripping right now. Look at Circle, look at Core weave. There's a handful of others in the space. So I think this is a great example. A lot of these might go back to their IPO price.
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Dominic Chu
A conversation for another time, by the way, is just what this means about the rest of the market. You are having these hot issues.
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Steve Grasso
This is what is what Karen said. And to Dan's point, it was priced at 33, never saw 33. So 85 on its first day and then it traded to 140, 240, 43. But when you look at valuations, if you look at last year's growth, it was around 45%. This year they match that. But analysts think it's going to be growing at 25% going forward. That does not support evaluation that guy's talking about. You probably can see a $33 price tag in this.
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Dominic Chu
All right, there's a little bearishness on Figma here across the desk. All right, coming up with the show off holiday holdup, the data is pointing to a major drop in spending for the second season and what it will mean for retailers during this most important time of the year. The details on shopping when Fast Money returns. All right, welcome back to Fast Money. Another check on how stocks closed out the day. The Dow losing just about 25 points its third negative session in a row. American Express and Boeing keeping it in the red. The S and P though up more than half a percent and the Nasdaq jumping over 1 full percent, both fueled by that big move in Alphabet shares. And some more after hours movers. Shares of C3AI dropping after missing earnings and revenue estimates and announcing a new CEO. HP on the move despite topping expectations. GitLab following after lowering Q3 revenue guidance. Asana jumping after beating top and bottom line expectations. And American Eagle surging After topping EPS and revenue estimates. Karen that was a lot, but AEO up 23%.
- [28:08]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah, I mean, there was a very, very strong beat for sure as a revenue beat. Adjusted operating beat, both, both Airy and American Eagle, which their larger brand beat as well. The Sydney Sweeney effect. I mean, that's, they talk about that as the best campaign they've ever had. All of that is great, for sure. But it's also worth noting that there is a near 20% short interest in this company. And so when you get good news like this, then you've got this rush to cover. I mean, it's all great. It's not crazy expensive here either, but it's not going to be for me.
- [28:41]
Dominic Chu
I don't know if it's a per se meme stock, but it sure acted like one. Post Sydney Sweeney all right, the holiday season is fast approaching and trees aren't the only thing that consumers are trimming this year. They're also cutting back on their holiday shopping. Anticipated anyway. A new survey from PwC forecasts the steepest pullback in spending since the start of the virus pandemic. For more on this, let's bring in CNBC's Gabrielle Font Rouge. Gabby, is it going to be as dire as the report says?
- [29:07]
Narrator/Commercial Voice
I mean, it's July, right? Or I mean, we're actually in September, but this survey was taken in June and July consumer sentiment was in a bit of a different place then. It's a little bit too early to say what holiday is going to look like, but it's certainly going to be a challenging time for retailers. They're contending with tariffs and one of the big things that drive holiday spending is discounts. But because of tariffs, they're pulling back on that discount. So is that going to be enough to drive consumer demand?
- [29:34]
Dominic Chu
Now, in this particular study and through your reporting, are there certain areas within retail that are going to be more impacted by a potential pullback in consumer sentiment and thereby their wallets?
- [29:47]
Narrator/Commercial Voice
So one of the things that we saw in this survey is that Gen Z is actually the generation that's going to pull back the most. If you're looking at boomers, Gen X and millennials, most of them are planning to keep their spending the same. But Gen Z is planning to cut back by 23%, and that's what's driving that 5% decline. You know, these is a, this is a new generation of shoppers. They're realizing their spending potential, but they also have debt, they have new expenses. And you know, it's interesting because Last year they were actually planning on spending 30, 37% more on gifts, travel and entertainment. This year, 23% less. The realities of the dollar are coming true for them. So any retailer that's catering to that younger shopper is going to have to try a little bit harder to win them over.
- [30:26]
Karen Feinerman
All right, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. So it seems to me a lot of times surveys about what people will spend and then what they actually do spend end up sort of not aligning. How do you see it playing out this time?
- [30:37]
Narrator/Commercial Voice
So we saw that last Christmas as well. You know, I was talking to a lot of these consultants, a lot of these firms about what they were expecting. It was a lot of gloom and doom. And then, of course, what we saw in the holiday season was, you know, not such a bad print is what ended up happening. So I think that what we're seeing now from, from consumers is that they are willing to spend on the days that matter. They're willing to spend on events, they're willing to spend on people that they love. Christmas is the prime time for that. So are we. Am I personally expecting a major drop? No, but again, it's September. We have a lot more room to go.
- [31:10]
Dominic Chu
All right, Gabrielle Fon Rouge of the latest on the retail landscape. Gabby, thank you very much. Karen, after hearing that report, are you as bullish on the holiday season?
- [31:19]
Karen Feinerman
I am, kind of. I do think. I mean, I think it sort of comes down to employment. So many things come down to employment. But I do think if unemployment is in good shape, Christmas will be in good shape as well.
- [31:29]
Dominic Chu
What do you think, Steve?
- [31:30]
Steve Grasso
Well, if you look at Gen Z there, they're pulling back on, but they're looking for experiential again. We've heard that so many times before. So if you look at a stock like Live Nation.
- [31:39]
Dominic Chu
I know.
- [31:39]
Steve Grasso
I think you've owned that in the past. I think that one looks good. It's not. I'd stay away from cruise lines, airlines, because we really don't know what the market's going to be. But I agree with Karen. If you have a job, you're going to spend money. Boomers have money, right, Guy? Gen Gen X has money. We have. We have money. So we're going to be the ones buying the bulk of the gifts anyway. So I think the consumer is in fine.
- [32:01]
Dominic Chu
I'm Gen X half right this.
- [32:03]
Guy Adami
I am a boomer. That's the half part that he got right. You know, I'll say this, and we've learned, I've Learned this over doing the show all these years. US consumer spends in just about any circumstances that you can throw up other than when they get scared. And typically what scares them is a move in the market. And I'm sure if you went back to early April, you'll see that consumer spending probably stopped on a dime. I remember in the fall of 2018, those two month period between October 30th and Christmas Eve, consumer spending grinded to a halt when the market went down 20%. Delinquency rates 90 days plus delinquencies are over 12 and a half percent. I think that's the highest we've seen. So there are a lot of reasons to be concerned. But if you don't see anything scary out there, the consumer will continue to spend. I mean it's just that simple.
- [32:49]
Dominic Chu
You know where there's going to be cheer and holiday cheers?
- [32:51]
Halima Croft
No idea.
- [32:52]
Dominic Chu
Speaking of, we just announced that on October 11th we're going to host a special live event, Fast Money Live Trading the Holidays. Look at this. Yes, this is December 11th. I'm sorry, December 11th. It's the holidays. This is the playbook. We're going to unveil it again here in my hand, the 2026 fast money trader playbook. Over the next few weeks and months, the gang is going to be adding their best ideas, their playbook to this whole entire catalog. Come December, it will be chock full and ready for showtime. So to get all those stocking stuffers, stocky stocking stuffers and watch the live show here at the Nasdaq and raise a glass of holiday cheer with these traders, just scan that QR code on your screen or if you're on Sirius XM channel 112. Right now just go to CNBC events.com fastmoney for your tickets. We're decking the charts, we're trimming the trades and wrapping them all up. For you guys, this Fast Money live event for the holidays is something I'm excited about.
- [33:54]
Guy Adami
Didn't we invite you to the last one?
- [33:56]
Dominic Chu
You did. I had a schedule. I had a scheduled.
- [33:58]
Guy Adami
I'm not interested in what you had to do.
- [34:00]
Dominic Chu
I mean you should have been. It's on the calendar this time.
- [34:03]
Guy Adami
December 11th. Dom Chew. For no other reason than to see Dominic chew here at the Nasdaq having a tequila. What do we have?
- [34:11]
Tom Callahan
Tequila.
- [34:12]
Guy Adami
Como Tequila. So yes, it's going to be, it will be a lot of fun.
- [34:15]
Dominic Chu
What do we think? Spike the eggnog with tequila.
- [34:20]
Karen Feinerman
Do I just go with the tequila?
- [34:22]
Dominic Chu
You don't even know one thing, I'll.
- [34:23]
Dan Nathan
Just say, Don, we've done two. And they've been amazing events. And we all have met hundreds, God, probably thousands of our viewers over the last, whatever, 15. You've been doing it for 19 years. If we make it to June. One of the things that we have enjoyed so much about doing this show, we learn from all of these people and we have this amazing opportunity to chat up so many of them. And it's just been really fun.
- [34:43]
Dominic Chu
I've had a handful of live events under my belt and the funnest part for me is meeting all the viewers out there. It really is pretty cool. All right, guys. Coming up on the show, private markets, public hype, how retail investors are accessing companies that have not yet come to market and the trading tools helping them actually do it. Fast MONEY is back after this. Welcome back to Fast money. The IPO market, if you haven't been paying attention, has slowly been making a comeback in 2025. And our next guest works with late stage companies on ways for their employees and their shareholders to sell their stock and for investors to actually access some of those private shares. NASDAQ Private Credit CEO Tom Callahan joins us now on set with the story. Tom, is it too far fetched to say that private markets will come close to liquidity the likes of which the public markets have right now?
- [35:42]
Tom Callahan
Well, Dom, thanks for having me. And I would actually predict that in the next three to five years, the private markets could exceed at least by one metric. So what we do at NASDAQ private market, as you said, are private company tenders. That's where private companies and there's a meta trend that we need to kind of talk about here. I think everyone knows 25 years ago there were over 8,000 publicly traded companies. Now there's half that. A decade ago there were about 50 unicorns, private companies worth over $1 billion. Today there's close to 1200. So the public markets are shrinking and the private markets are growing. And so you know for a private company, what that means if you want to attract and retain the best talent. Remember, a lot of these big private companies are competing against the Metas and the Googles. They need to offer employees liquidity on their shares. The average company now waits close to 15 years before the IPO. Pretty tough to say to that 25 year old software engineer you just hired. Wait till you're 40 to buy your first house. So they do tenders in order to offer liquidity to their employees.
- [36:47]
Dominic Chu
What's been the evolution like just in the past five or seven years, it's gotten huge. But you've watched it develop over the course of the past 20 or 30 years. What, what has been causing the massive ramp up in just like the last five or seven years?
- [37:00]
Tom Callahan
Well, let me give you some numbers on the tender business. And this is. These are our numbers. So three years ago, we did about $3.5 billion in tender volume. Last year we did about six and a half billion in tender volume. This year, 2025, we're going to do about 30 billion in tender volume. So the market is just absolutely exploding. And I think it's a byproduct of the trend. I just talked about more private companies, private companies being more valuable. Most valuable private company right now is open a $500 billion company that's bigger than ExxonMobil. Second largest one is Space X. $400 billion valuation. That's bigger than bank of America. Third anthropic, $180 billion valuation that's bigger than Citibank. These private companies are getting absolutely huge. And they have to manage their employees liquidity the same way that public companies offer employee shares that then, you know, vest and they're able to sell them to live their lives. Private companies need to do the exact same thing.
- [38:03]
Guy Adami
Thomas, perfect timing to have you on, because the secondary market's probably as hot as it's ever been. But investors that are watching transparency, how do they get involved, some of the risk? I know that's sort of open ended, but speak to that.
- [38:15]
Tom Callahan
Yeah, Guy, I'm so glad you asked that question because, like, really big things are happening right now. President Trump just signed his executive order allowing private funds into retirement accounts. So we have tens of millions of nurses and cops and firemen that are going to be literally betting their retirements on private funds. And so you have that dynamic. The private markets are being opened up. This is an asset class that historically has been for Sand Hill Road, the most sophisticated institutional investors. Now we're letting essentially retail into these markets. So you have to know what questions to ask. And you know, who doesn't want to own Space X? Who doesn't want to own Open Air? Who doesn't want to own and Drill? These are the hottest, most dynamic companies in the market. One thing that I always explain to people that are new to the private markets is they're different from public markets in a lot of ways. But one really important way public markets are bilateral. You need a buyer and seller to agree on terms. And you have a trade if you want to Buy a share of Apple Guy. You don't need to ask Tim Cook's permission. In the private markets, you do. The company needs to approve every single share transfer. That extra step, what we say the private markets are trilateral, adds enormous complication. And a lot of the biggest and best and most dynamic private companies don't want little folks like us as investors. They only want large institutional players. So they're literally not accessible to the average retail investors. And a lot of retail investors are very surprised to learn that fact.
- [39:52]
Dominic Chu
All right, Tom, this is a huge conversation. We got to spend more time on this because I got so many more questions. But thank you so much for joining us today.
- [39:59]
Tom Callahan
My pleasure.
- [40:00]
Dominic Chu
All right. Coming up on the show, some technicals getting our hearts racing. One, luxury auto stock has been pedal to the metal for the past month, but the Chartmaster says it's time to pump the brakes. That's next for fast in 2000. All right, welcome back. Ferrari shares have revved up some big gains in the last month, but the Chartmaster sees the stock shifting into reverse. Carter, Worth, what are the charts telling you about Ferrari?
- [40:29]
Carter Worth
Thanks, Tom. Yes, well, one would say the chart is stalling or in this case, maybe skidding. Let's look at it. So here is a Ferrari chart we know from the bear market low, essentially moving from 150 to 500. Incredible run. And then it gets hit hard in Covid. Look at the second chart. There are four charts and they're all identical. Not Covid. Listen to me, the tariffs. So it drops hard and look where it bounces to the penny for the fifth time off that uptrend line in effect since the 2022 bear market low. So we're in the apex of this formation. We think it fails here. See that downward arrow final chart of four. You'll see another way to draw the lines. This is a topping formation. So we've got a stock and then last but not least, a relative performance chart. And this is real story. The top panel, of course, is Ferrari moving up since the tariff plunge, but underperforming the Stocks Europe 600 index. We think you fade this big bounce that it's had over the last five, six weeks following its earnings collapse in late July.
- [41:37]
Dominic Chu
All right. Carter Wolfe with the trade on Ferrari. Thank you very much, sir. We'll see you soon. Steve Grasso, let's talk about the trade. What do you think?
- [41:43]
Steve Grasso
Impressive bounces as Carter just set off that August 1st low. But this is a brand. It's a luxury brand. Obviously, rich people buy this brand but if the market hits the skids and there's uncertainty, people are going to pull back from this. So I agree with that sale.
- [41:59]
Dominic Chu
It's already underperforming relative to stock 600.
- [42:01]
Dan Nathan
Predisposed to agree with Carter. Not because I love Carter's work. But guys, Ferrari has been in the.
- [42:06]
Dominic Chu
Shop forever, since 1980. Which one? Which one? Great point guy.
- [42:13]
Guy Adami
You know it would be nice to own a Ferrari. Some of those. You remember the movie, if you recall, Ferris Bueller.
- [42:19]
Dominic Chu
Ferris Bueller's Day Off.
- [42:20]
Guy Adami
Yeah, that's just a pristine automobile. But my sense is Dom Chew. Knowing you the way I do, you have been in Ferraris many times. When you go to your golf courses like the pebble beach thing and you make your way across the country.
- [42:33]
Dominic Chu
The closest thing I have, the Testarossa. Testarossa.
- [42:36]
Dan Nathan
We're going to bring back the guest for a second, Carter Braxton, where you're living in the legs. I got the Sandy so we're good to do that. Hey Carter, you know we talked about this. Microsoft at an 8% gap. We hit it last night on the show after its earnings. It opened on the high, closed on the low. That's almost the opposite of what Google did today. But Microsoft gave it all back. What do you do with a chart like Google that gaps to a new all time high, Massive volume, massive price action? Is this thing going to follow through or do you take the other side of it?
- [43:03]
Carter Worth
I would take the other side. Meaning it's a news related gap and most gaps are. And in this case the breakout is definitive. Right. We've moved well above its February high and having plunged during tariff like everyone else. But this doesn't seem to me as though it would have a lot of follow through. If long I would sell calls and if just long and one is not engaged in the options business, I would trim those longs.
- [43:28]
Dominic Chu
All right. Not outright bearish, just a little bit more bearish. All right, Carter, thank you very much for that. Coming up next on the show, your final trades. Keep it right here. All right, a quick reminder. As we told you earlier in the show, Fast Money Live is coming back. A special trading the holidays live event happening here right at the NASDAQ market site on December 11. Scan the QR code on your screen or just head over to cnbc.com fastmoney to get your tickets. New York during the holidays and a front row seat to Fast Money live. We're trading 2026 in December. Get your playbook. Scan the QR code now. It's time for those final trades and we're going to start with Steve Grasso first.
- [44:13]
Steve Grasso
So I feel like I'm early on this, Dom. You know when you look at something like maybe I should get back in, I'm already in it it so I feel like I should probably take a breather on this. But it's eth grayscale mini trust. There's nothing more bullish than a long ball.
- [44:27]
Dominic Chu
Karen Feiderman Yes.
- [44:28]
Karen Feinerman
So United Randall hit an all time high then close lower. Guy would say that's no bueno. I would sell a little bit of.
- [44:34]
Dominic Chu
Outside upside calls against your Dan Nathan Yeah.
- [44:37]
Dan Nathan
Guy's football coach. You say early is on time.
- [44:39]
Tom Callahan
Yeah.
- [44:40]
Dan Nathan
Didn't you say that?
- [44:41]
Guy Adami
And on time is late.
- [44:42]
Karen Feinerman
Yeah.
- [44:42]
Dan Nathan
Google. I'm obviously a seller.
- [44:44]
Dominic Chu
All right, Guy.
- [44:45]
Guy Adami
Dom, great having you. A marathon petroleum.
- [44:48]
Dominic Chu
All right. I love it here. Thanks for watching Fast Money Mad Money starts right now.
- [44:55]
Narrator/Commercial Voice
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Will the job.
- [45:36]
Dominic Chu
Market bounce back from the recent weakness?
- [45:38]
Dan Nathan
Will the White House challenge the accuracy.
- [45:40]
Dominic Chu
Of the data, numbers and analysis of the critical August jobs report squawk box Friday 8:30am Eastern streaming on CNBC Plus.