Big Pharma Breakout… And A Billionaire Boycott On Netflix 10/1/25

Summary

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Fast Money: "Big Pharma Breakout… And A Billionaire Boycott On Netflix"

Date: October 1, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee, with Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and guest chart analyst Carter Braxton Worth (plus guest Jack Genesiewicz of Natix)

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Episode Overview

This episode kicks off Q4 with a dynamic discussion of three major themes rocking markets:

• The dramatic resurgence in Big Pharma stocks following President Trump's drug pricing deal with Pfizer.
• Elon Musk calling for a Netflix boycott, testing the impact of influential voices on high-profile stocks.
• A look at standout moves in notable names like Intel, Nike, and auto makers, plus quick hits on trending news.

The desk analyzes whether the pharma bounce represents a true reversal, how much cultural storms can actually dent Netflix, and why semiconductor and retail swing trades are commanding attention.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Pharma Breakout After Trump-Pfizer Drug Pricing Deal

[01:04–16:01]

Market Context

• S&P 500 closes at a record high (6700+), with a major sector rotation in focus, notably renewed interest in healthcare/pharma.
• Biogen surges 10%, joined by strong moves in Eli Lilly, Merck, Moderna, Pfizer, and more.
• The catalyst: President Trump's new drug pricing deal with Pfizer, easing regulatory uncertainty that's dogged the sector.

Panel Analysis

• Karen Finerman shares a tactical move in VanEck’s Big Cap Pharma ETF (PPH), noting the sector's deep undervaluation and new clarity as a tailwind.

  • "We are all Pfizers now. ...The idea of certainty is so much more important now. We don't have 100% certainty, but ...maybe, you know, the target is off the back of this industry." [02:41]

• Tim Seymour likens the White House’s actions to "a gift" for pharma, citing low Medicare as a percent of revenues and lobbying strength.

  • "This felt like to me, this was the White House saying—especially understanding the power of the pharma industry behind the scenes...this was a gift..." [03:35]
  • Notes Pfizer's recent deal with Metsera as a pipeline win, highlighting a turning point.

• Guy Adami projects a significant rerating: "Bristol [Myers] is trading at 8.5 times next year’s [earnings], Merck probably about the same. You just give them a 12 multiple ... Bristol Myers very quickly becomes a $72 stock and all of a sudden Merck looks like $120 stock. …the crosshairs being off their back now." [05:39]

• Dan Nathan is cautious, calling into question how sustainable the rally is, compared to secular growth seen elsewhere.

  • "I just don't see why you chase this stuff. I think it's like a win-win sort of deal… for the industry, consumers...government..." [06:24]

Technical Take

• Carter Braxton Worth (Chart Analyst Guest) says the breakout is real and in early stages:
  • "Finally, a little life out of this very dormant area...It is making all time lows right now [relative to the market]...We're at a critical juncture." [10:56]
  • "Merck...definition of a bearish to bullish reversal... Biogen ...the precondition of shocking unrelenting weakness...Pfizer, again, same exact circumstance...I would say [the move] is very nascent. More to come." [11:41]
  • Estimates 10-15% upside ahead for the sector. [13:46]

Longer Term Issues

• Patent cliffs remain a worry, but government overhang seen as mostly lifted; low valuations more than bake that risk in (especially outside J&J).
  • On J&J: "It's the litigation overhang from the talc cancer dynamics and lawsuits...But you have a really sexy medtech business ... I like JJ, I'm long JNJ." – Tim Seymour [15:03]

AI Intersection?

• Jack Genesiewicz (Natix): "With regard to positioning, it’s certainly one of the biggest underweights, most unloved sectors…We could have room to run here in the near term." [16:21]
  • Sees AI accelerating R&D efficiency in pharma.
  • "You could see a pretty good move into the end of the year as maybe we get a little bit of rotation." [17:53]

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2. Macro Market: Government Shutdown Looms & S&P Hits Record High

[19:08–23:32]

• Despite gridlock in Washington over a possible shutdown, markets are unfazed; Fed policy and delayed economic data the wild cards.
  • "It's hard to come up with a reason right now that the stock market sells off meaningfully. ...Inflation seems okay." – Dan Nathan [19:15]
  • "A government shutdown probably wasn't [a reason to sell]." – Guy Adami [22:21]
  • "This is going to be a short term moment in time." – Tim Seymour [23:02]

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3. Intel’s Big Run: More Sizzle or Just Smoke?

[25:42–30:43]

• Intel jumps 7% on AMD foundry talks; stock is up nearly 50% in a month on a flurry of 'early-stage deals' (Apple, TSMC, Nvidia, White House).
  • Christina Partsnevilles: "Intel's collecting endorsements from Nvidia, the White House, now reportedly Apple, TSMC…these are dubbed early talks, which means none may pan out. ...Intel's foundry operations are bleeding $3 billion per quarter."
  • Underlying skepticism prevails:
    • "Valuation comes into play…it's become a stock that's probably trading at 50 times next year's number with a quarter coming up." – Guy Adami [28:15]
    • "Foundries, they're tough businesses...Capital doesn't exactly fix the problem." – Dan Nathan [28:42]
    • Government policy may keep a floor under shares, but execution risk remains.

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4. Netflix Boycott & Cultural Boycotts in the Market

[34:46–39:34]

• Elon Musk tweets for canceling Netflix over a transgender character in 'Dead End: Paranormal Park,' sending shares down 2%.

  • Steve Kovac (CNBC Tech Correspondent): "The targeted rage of that tweet...sent Netflix shares down 2% today...Musk called on his followers to cancel Netflix and said he already did so himself." [35:04]
  • Creator of the show reports anti-Semitic and homophobic harassment as fallout.

• Desk Reaction

  • "Is that going to move the needle necessarily? ...Maybe for the first time, valuation is [a] concern. ...But I don't think this is a reason to sell the stock." – Guy Adami [36:59]
  • "It just seems kind of silly at this point." – Dan Nathan [37:35]
  • "We've had these moments ... Budweiser, Nike, you name it. I don't think that's going to be the reason to sell Netflix here." – Tim Seymour [38:36]
  • "I feel like this will be very fleeting." – Karen Finerman [39:24]

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5. Stock Moves & Industry Snapshots (Quick Hits)

[32:52–42:17]

• Zillow: Down on news FTC and several states are suing Zillow, Redfin, and Rocket Mortgage for antitrust violations.

  • "I still think this is by far and away the best platform." – Karen Finerman [32:52]

• GM: Stronger-than-expected US deliveries; Tim Seymour sees a breakout opportunity.

  • “This may be the most interesting reason to buy the company after essentially bouncing around...I think this is a breakout. I think it’s time to buy the stock, not sell it.” [33:21]

• Nike: Big earnings beat, stock surges 6.5%. Dick's Sporting Goods a beneficiary. But most other sneaker/apparel names remain weak.

  • "There are signs of life here and I think the chance for it to become less expensive in the near term is there." – Karen Finerman [41:53]
  • Onch, Birkenstock, Crocs, Lululemon all remain under pressure.
  • "I actually think there’s some room to run here in NKE." – Guy Adami [41:25]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Pharma’s Comeback:
  • "You make the most money when things go from terrible to just bad." – Tim Seymour [03:28]
• On Sector Rotations:
  • "People in general, hedge funds, investors are so overweight technology that they can't be any more overweight technology and they've got to go someplace else." – Melissa Lee [06:19]
• On Cultural Backlash:
  • "Look at the power of an Elon Musk tweet, Mel...the power of the billionaire boycott." – Steve Kovac [35:04]
• On Intel:
  • "Foundries, they're tough businesses. ...Capital doesn't exactly fix the problem." – Dan Nathan [28:42]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Pharma Breakout & Market Rotation: [01:04 – 16:01]
• Big Pharma Technicals with Carter Worth: [10:49 – 14:15]
• AI’s impact on Pharma, Market Positioning: [16:01 – 19:08]
• Gov’t Shutdown, Market Resilience: [19:08 – 23:32]
• Intel Foundry Push: [25:42 – 30:43]
• Netflix Boycott – Elon Musk’s tweet: [34:46 – 39:34]
• Nike/Consumer Names Recap: [40:21 – 42:17]

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Conclusion/Final Trades

[42:55–end]

• Tim Seymour: Gold Miners (GDX), "offense for gold miners. Free cash flow yields are awesome."
• Karen Finerman: Sticking with Pfizer.
• Dan Nathan: Bullish on Global Foundries as an indirect play on Intel's Foundry business.
• Guy Adami: Positive on Bristol Myers.

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Overall Tone:
The episode is characterized by tactical optimism on underloved sectors (pharma, gold, select industrials/retail), realism on the fleeting impact of political/cultural storms (Netflix/Intel), and an undercurrent that the market’s wall of worry persists—but is powering record highs.

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For listeners:
This episode offers an actionable, nuanced roundtable on rotation to defensive/value sectors, skepticism toward momentum runs sparked by headlines, and insight into the cross-currents driving sentiment in both stocks and culture.

Transcript

[Melissa Lee]

What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. EDWARD Jones, Member, SIPC.

[Tim Seymour]

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[Dan Nathan]

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[Dan Nathan]

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[Jack Genesiewicz]

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[Tim Seymour]

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[Jack Genesiewicz]

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[Dan Nathan]

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[Melissa Lee]

Live in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Strong prognosis. Pharma surging for a second straight day following the president's drug pricing deal. Is this the kickstart the stalled sector has needed? We'll debate that. Plus a bingeing backlash. Why Elon Musk is joining the call to cancel Netflix. The impact on the stock and the story behind the cancel culture drama. And later, Intel's latest Lifeline giving shares a lift lift. How Nike's results are leaving other shoemakers in the dust and why one firm is ready to hang up on AT&T. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from studio be at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan and Gaia Dami. Well, the S&P 500 closing at an all time high once again crossing above the 6700 level for the first time ever. The NASDAQ and Dow also closing in on positive territory today. More on the markets coming up. But first we got to get to big day two of the big pharma breakout. Biogen surging more than 10% today. Eli Lilly, Merck, Moderna, Pfizer also building on yesterday's big gains. These bullish moves coming after President Trump announced a drug pricing deal with Pfizer yesterday. And there's speculation that there's more to come. The S and P health care ETF has been underperforming the broader market this year. But could new deals help pump life into a trade that's been barely showing a pulse. Karen, you actually made a trade based on yesterday's gain.

[Karen Finerman]

Yes, the pph, which was the Vanex Big Cap Pharma. You know, it's been interesting. The space has been under pressure for so long and you know, the multiples, while they were cheap up here, they just kept getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper. We know, Tim.

[Tim Seymour]

And my Pfizer, my Pfizer, just my Pfizer now.

[Karen Finerman]

We are all Pfizers now. But I think, you know, it's an interesting space. You do have this catalyst in that. Yes, there's a deal that it sounds like it would be bad for Pfizer, but the idea of certainty is so much more important now. We don't have 100% certainty, but we do have the idea that maybe, you know, the target is off the back of this industry. And this is an industry that is not correlated to AI in the way that some other things are. Yeah, we talk about drug discovery and that, but that is really attractive in terms of multiples and has balance sheets that are in great shape for the most part. So there's a lot of things to like here and to just steal a line from my co. Panelist. Panelist.

[Tim Seymour]

I guess, you know, you can use my name unless you've forgotten it.

[Karen Finerman]

Timothy. Timothy. Which you make the most money when things go from terrible to just bad. And we've seen a move away from terror.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, I think the positioning in the health care sector is so underweight and so that alone gives a lot of sustainability. We'll get into the fundamentals here. But I, you know, when I saw this news, it just, it felt like a gift from the White House. This felt like to me, this was the White House saying especially understanding the power of the pharma industry behind the scenes, the lobbying power, the ability to, to really make change and companies that I think in a very good position and in many ways are very much on board with a lot of the policy that this administration is bringing forth. I feel like this was a gift because Medicare as a percentage of revenues for the sector is so low that if you start to play most favored nation with the government and basically say we'll do whatever you want in terms of negotiating on Medicare, that's a win. When your Pfizer, who's said 70 billion, will spend when they were already. If you look at their R and D and Capex spend over the next four or five years, this is easy for them. This is something that they were going to do anyway way or, you know, they, they put a little bit more emphasis into certain subsectors. So I think this is a very important couple days for the sector because I do think that the headlines that all we do is talk about and a lot of them are just headlines in terms of also just posturing by HHS and different dynamics. Hopefully some of its posturing but we'll see. I think this was an opportunity for big Pharma to continue to move and you brought up the valuations and where a lot of these companies are relative to multi year at least eps, relative value to themselves. That's what's really interesting about this. And we can talk more about Pfizer, I mean that deal last week with Med Sarah on top of this, that's your turning point in the stock. I'm not sure if this was that bottom for the entire sector, but I.

[Melissa Lee]

Think for Pfizer, well, coincidentally there was a mid stage readout of the long acting GLP1 drug that was acquired from Matsera and that happened yesterday also. So that's another kicker to this, that they're making deals in a good way, in a meaningful way to improve their pipeline which has been regardless of whether or not Washington has them in their crosshairs anymore, Pfizer or any other drug company, the patent cliff is still a major issue that remains especially for Merck.

[Guy Adami]

Without question. We've talked about. Welcome back, Tim. By the way, Tim Otey was away.

[Tim Seymour]

Thank you. Thank you. Nice to have you.

[Guy Adami]

He was in Italy. That's all he knows anyway. I mean I think all this does now is unleash the potential for valuation to get to some semblance of normalcy. Bristol's trading at eight and a half times next year's Merck probably about the same. You just give them a 12 multiple which by the way is still historically cheap. Bristol Myers very quickly becomes a $72 stock and all of a sudden Merck looks like $120 stock. And I don't think that that's far fetched with the crosshairs being off their back now.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean the, the rotation here, you have to wonder whether or not this is going to stick in terms of generalists entering the space. But one argument is that people in general, hedge funds, investors are so overweight technology.

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah.

[Melissa Lee]

That they can't be any more overweight technology and they've got to go someplace else.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, you got to ask though, is there a secular thing going on here? And it doesn't really appear to be right. So we had plenty of time to digest some of these different, you know, the drugs, the GLP1s, we saw what happened there and we saw it give it all the way back. And not Lilly for that matter. But you know, like you say, all right, so finders, Pfizer is getting the game. Is it Larry? It's still the JLP one. Maybe it's fine. I just don't see why you chase this stuff. I think it's like a win win sort of deal, I think for the industry, I think it for consumers, you know, patients, that sort of thing. And it's obviously a win win for the government because they get some concessions. These are the sorts of things I think makes sense from a public private sort of partnership. We've seen some stuff about some of the investments and we start asking ourselves where does that end? You know what I mean? But I would look around and see what are other industries that the government, you know, they could kind of do deals like this. Is there something in the Energy department? You know, who knows? But this seems like something they want to continue. If you're trying to make the stock market great again, it's actually been pretty great for the last few years. This is not a bad way to ju different sectors and keep the market going higher because I know we're going to talk about the markets, but S and P close at a new all time high today. And there was a time in the not so distant future where we would have said oh, you know, a government shutdown at this point with the labor market doing what it's doing, that sort of thing would not be a good thing and the market just doesn't care.

[Melissa Lee]

I think that you bring up an interesting point in terms of chasing the run. Can you call this two day winning streak, which is the best two day streak for the S&P 500 pharma index since October of 2008. But can you call this a run because it's been so short lived and the valuations are still so low Even with the run, I think Pfizer is still single digit forward P E at.

[Tim Seymour]

This point with 6 and 6.4% dividend yield. And back to the relative underperformance that you talked about. And I do believe in looking at relative performance of sectors and we'll talk when we have our market shot to talk about semis which are about to make a relative all time high, which I think is important. But health care has underperformed by 28% over the last two years and we're talking about some of the biggest companies, some of the most important companies. And that's also during a time when Lilly was certainly treated almost like a tech stock, we sometimes referred to kind of the GLP dynamics of, of what was going on there. So I do think also bring, I mean Lilly's move today was insane. I mean, of all the stocks we haven't talked about yet, how about Lilly? How about an 8% move? How about a trade that was very disappointing where a lot of people got in towards the near, I think the highs on this one. So I think there's a lot to go. I could make an argument that as a group we've had valuations lower than they've been in 20 years. And in terms of positioning, this is a case where because of the crowd out from Big Cap Tech, but because of the headwinds from Washington, there is more to go in whatever this run is.

[Karen Finerman]

Novo though, also had a very big move today. Six plus. Novo has had a tough couple of days or two weeks maybe where it was north of 60 and then traded down to the low 50s. Here it's getting back close to 260 again. But I still like, I have more money in Lilly, but I still like Novo and I definitely wanted to have more exposure to the whole space.

[Guy Adami]

You know what season is coming up, Melissa? We're in fall, not in the seasons like spring hockey season, you know, sports season.

[Melissa Lee]

Well, yeah, of course. Do we ever leave hockey season?

[Guy Adami]

Well, that's an excellent point by Melissa. Let me mention that because sometimes people spend in ordinary amount of time in the penalty box.

[Dan Nathan]

Oh boy.

[Melissa Lee]

Nice.

[Tim Seymour]

Nice metaphor.

[Guy Adami]

Thank you, Tim. And then they get out of the penalty box and then the whole world sort of changes. These names have been in the penalty box, which is why I'll disagree with Dan slightly and say I think once they're out now you get a valuation re rate and there's another 25 or 30% in all of these names.

[Tim Seymour]

May I continue with the metaphor?

[Guy Adami]

Thank you.

[Tim Seymour]

One of the worst metaphors in markets is, is skating to where the puck is going. Boy, isn't that awful? And yet it does feel as if you've been investing in a couple of names over the last. If you had been investing say Novo and Lilly over the last few years, you were already ahead of that and that pucks now pass you by. Bring it back to Pfizer because this Matsera deal, and I think you referenced the data that we actually now have on Met O91, which is essentially the quarter. I mean if you think about the weight loss comparisons to this and actually Lilly and ZEPBOUND, you know, 14 to 18% in terms of weight loss. I mean the numbers are very similar. And then it just gets into dosage frequency and whatnot. What it means is for a company like Lilly who's been investing aggressively in oncology and other places and now has a GLP trade in there, I, you know I'm long. I think you can get longer here.

[Melissa Lee]

What do the charts say for pharma? Let's bring in the chart master. Why not? Carter Braxton Worth are worth charting. Carter, what do you see?

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Well, how fun. Finally a little life out of this very dormant area of the market. But let's get right to it. A couple charts to look at. The first of course and you've all covered this, it's how poor the performance of The S&P 500 pharmaceutical sector has been to the market. In fact not depicted here. But it is making all time lows right now. So you're talking about going back to 1989 so the beginning of sector data. But let's look at the absolute chart of The S&P 500 pharmaceutical sub industry group. It's in an uptrend but again it's been underperforming because it's going up less than the market. But we're at a critical juncture and you can see just today we've moved out of this formation to the upside. The next chart is a judgment, it's an up arrow. I think we continue to move higher. This breakout above the downtrend line in effect since the peak of past two years. Now what names. Obviously this is a group move and I would do it. And Karen mentioned an excellent etf. But let's look at three that all have potential by my work. The first of course is Merck. This is the definition of a bearish to bullish reversal. Buy 150 day is flattening. That's how something bases and bottoms. Next take a look at Biogen biib. It's the exact same circumstance. The precondition of shocking unrelenting weakness. And then basing and bottoming for three, four months. And then big strength today, news related or not. And then finally Pfizer again, same exact circumstance. Unbelievable weakness. Unrelenting. And again the strength today is a follow on of strength that's been going on for months. And so today's strength confirms the bottoming out action of the preceding three, five months. And it just I would say is very nascent. More to come.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter. You know when we were looking through the health care ETFs, they vary greatly in terms of size, obviously, but also in terms of hold. And one of the biggest differences between them is the weighty and Johnson and Johnson. And so I'm wondering, I don't mean to pick on Johnson, Johnson per se, but what do you think the charts look like for that one, since it does seem to be one of the biggest differences between the health care ETFs out there.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

That's right. I mean, think of all health care stocks. United Health Care was the biggest weight and then of course, it had its fall from grace. Pfizer has been the biggest. J and J has been the biggest. But right now, JJ is not quite as interesting, I would think, as some of these very beaten up names that have a lot of data and prospective catch up. So I would go with those that are the most bombed out, that are showing signs of early turns.

[Karen Finerman]

So, Carter, so let's pick any of those early ones, Pfizer, Merck, whatever. And I see clearly the reversal. Do you have any sense of how far they could run before you would sort of say, all right, time to take money off the table?

[Carter Braxton Worth]

Sure. And I remember a lot of them up quite, quite a bit over the past three or five months already. The question is how far, as you point out, before it's too much. This kind of bullish price volume correlation with very heavy volume is hard to stop day to day, week over week. So I would think at least 10, 15% higher in these names. And thematically for left 4 dead health.

[Melissa Lee]

Care names, Carter, thank you.

[Carter Braxton Worth]

You bet.

[Melissa Lee]

Carter Braxtonworth of Worth Charting. And I think the question how long can they go for? How long until we start to refocus on the original problem with this space. And that was the patent cliff.

[Guy Adami]

And that will not go away anytime soon. I mean, they all face it, but the value, you know, they got the double whammy of the patent cliff, which is out there, and then the government putting a bullseye on their back, which has been out there for a while, which seemingly now is gone. So you've eliminated that. The patent thing is still out there, but that's more than priced in, in my opinion, in terms of the valuations, I'll say this J and J is not trading at the same multiple. It's actually probably two turns more expensive than some of these other pharma names. And if we do a longer term chart, we're right up against levels that we saw a couple of years ago. So this is a critical level, this 185 to 190 level in Johnson and.

[Tim Seymour]

Johnson and drilling into Johnson and Johnson further. This is a stock that also though has been dead money for a long time. Other than, you know, this recent move has been very impressive off the lows. I'm long the name. I have a bunch of clients that are very long the name and let's be clear, it's, it's the litigation overhang from the talc cancer dynamics and lawsuits but also their attempts to settle it. That to me is a catalyst out there in this because they're very far along in this process. It's been going on for years. So you have a really sexy medtech business. You have different parts of their consumer products business where I think they've, they've actually streamlined that. They've sold off certain names that haven't done so well. I like jj, I'm long jnj and because it doesn't look as attractive on multiple. I get that. But I think there are other drivers here.

[Guy Adami]

All right, Sexy medt. I mean it's great having Tim back. I mean when that's probably the first.

[Tim Seymour]

Time medterm has ever. But if you're sexy medt, but you're Mr. Metaphor tonight when we.

[Guy Adami]

No, no, when does that mean tonight? We're 14 minutes into the show.

[Melissa Lee]

Stick with pharma and move on. Our next guest says the sector still has room to run and could benefit from the AI trade. Let's bring in Natix. This is Jack Genesiewicz, he is the lead portfolio manager. Jack, great to have you with us. And I guess the question is, you know, is this enough to get generalists back in? Because it's been a space that has been under invested in for some time now.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

Yeah, you know, I think we've had some overhang right in those dark clouds. I think a little bit more clarity going forward and that probably brings some interest back. You know, as we were talking earlier, you know, the concerns were around the tariff pricing as well as, you know, what else could we be seeing with regard to the pricing policies going forward? And over the last couple of days we've got some clarity on this front. And so with that clarity, that overhang sort of starts to lift. It's certainly a cheap from a multiple perspective you're looking at 15 year lows. And with regard to positioning, it's certainly one of the biggest underweights, most unloved sectors of the marketplace. So we could have room to run here in the near term.

[Melissa Lee]

When you say that it can be helped by the trade, you mean helped by a stall, helped by questions around the trade, helped by concerns that the trade is slowing down.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

Well, when you start to get the concerns about, you know, when are we going to see the monetization of the trade really work its way into some of these real world markets? I think this is one area you could see that with, you know, a lot of the concerns around all this Capex spend. One of the areas we could see benefit would certainly be on the. On the drug front, in some of the potential research and development we could see with get accelerated on the back of the trade. So that's one of the places maybe we could actually see that impact kick in a lot sooner than maybe some are expecting.

[Karen Finerman]

Jack, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. I'll ask you the same question I asked Carter, which is how much upside do you think there could be from here? Pretend you never saw any of the charts prior to this. What would you say? I know it's not a monolith, but you could pick a couple names or the group.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

Sure. I think the group in general has probably room to run. Again, from a technical perspective, I think there's still upside in here simply because just the lack of ownership, cheap multiples, you've got those overhangs that are finally lifting, you know, and you could see a pretty good move into the end of the year as maybe we get a little bit of rotation. People are getting a little bit more worried about valuations within the markets. And this is one of the areas that quite frankly doesn't have that concern. So maybe it's a little bit of an area of maybe one foot in the market, but still have that valuation cushion if you still want to have sort of that chicken long into the end of the year.

[Melissa Lee]

How are you feeling about the markets at this point and how they are valued with the S&P 500 sitting above 6700 for the first time.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

Yeah, you know, I still think there's plenty of upside in here because when I've been out meeting with clients the last couple of weeks, you know, it's certainly that wall of worry still persists. And I think in past instances you've had a little bit more of a flavor that, you know, people are actually invested and looking to get even longer. I think the other way around when I start to hear a lot of the client conversations we're having in here. So, you know, it's certainly far from being extended from positioning that we're looking at. And more questions seem to be arising than sort of the bullish content. So from that perspective, to us, it still feels like that wall where he's in play. And as a result, you probably can still see us grind higher into the end of the year.

[Melissa Lee]

Jack, great to see you. Thanks.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

Pleasure. Thank you.

[Melissa Lee]

Jack. Genesis, I don't know. Dan, what do you think?

[Dan Nathan]

Yeah, you know, that seems to be consensus, the grind higher. I read a stat today. I think 80% of the time the S and P is up more than 12% going to the Q4. It's up maybe four and a half percent or so on average. Which, you know, I mean, it's hard to come up with a reason right now that the stock market sells off meaningfully. We're okay with tariffs. It seems like, you know, the rate stuff is going to take care of at least the worries about the labor market. Inflation seems okay. We're seeing a reacceleration a little bit and S and P like profits or at least estimates going into next year. So you see an environment that, okay, it's been working. Why can't it continue to work? I'm hard pressed every I know you guys think of me as the silver lining guy. I'm trying to find a couple of reasons why the market could go down more than a few percent right now. And it's hard to come up with that right now.

[Melissa Lee]

The Fed, well, it's a price too much in.

[Dan Nathan]

Well, okay, well just think about this, okay? What if we have a protracted, you know, shutdown right here? You know, does The Fed go 50 at the end of the month? Is that the sort of thing that could support the equity markets at least evaluations here so that I think that's the push and pull right here.

[Melissa Lee]

Let's get to the government shutdown. Lawmakers are still stuck in a stalemate. The rhetoric is getting red hot. Emily Wilkins has a developing story from Washington. Emily, what's the latest? A. MELISSA well, look, this is all coming as jobs day is now in peril, as this government shutdown, it's going to extend beyond Friday morning. Senators have already left the Capitol for tomorrow's holiday and S and P Global is now out with a new report saying that an extended delay in the release of key US Economic data like that jobs data, is going to add uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Now, a vote today on that seven week stopgap, it failed to get enough Democratic votes as those lawmakers are holding out for some sort of solution on extending those premium tax credits for health insurance. Now you did see three Democrats cross the aisle to vote with Republicans, but again, that magic number is 8. And the finger pointing from both sides of Capitol Hill is only increasing.

[Tim Seymour]

Democrats want to avert this crisis, but Republicans tried to bully us and it's clear they can't. They don't have the votes. Is this going to be a long shutdown?

[Dan Nathan]

You know, I don't know. I can't predict what congressional Democrats are going to do, Peter, but I actually don't think it's going to be that long of a shutdown. This is a pure guess from the vice president, United States, because I think you already saw some evidence that moderate Democrats are cracking a little bit.

[Melissa Lee]

Vance also said that federal layoffs could begin in the next day or two. And Trump's chief budget officer is already cutting federal funds that would have otherwise gone to states with Democratic senators. Melissa. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. Typically, the market looks through these things. You got to wonder if the Fed is going to look through these things.

[Guy Adami]

They should. They absolutely should. I mean, if, if there's anything that's transitory, theoretically, it should be this. And we, I think we talked about it whilst Tim was here last week. We said, you know, excuse me, whilst.

[Tim Seymour]

Four score and 20 years ago, Guy.

[Guy Adami]

That's a word.

[Tim Seymour]

Okay, keep going. I'm sorry.

[Guy Adami]

Anyway, I could have said while, but it sounds smarter for me, it's a big. Anywho, do not trade, do not try to sort of game this out. It's not going to work. And I think we were pretty consistent saying there were a number of reasons to sell the market. A government shutdown probably wasn't one of them.

[Melissa Lee]

Do you remember back in May what Moody's said about the government and its credit rating?

[Tim Seymour]

Sure.

[Melissa Lee]

In terms of government dysfunction. And you have to wonder if this goes on for a prolonged way, if the ratings agencies start to rethink again this aspect of government dysfunction impeding the creditworthiness of the United States.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, that was, I think, two stones ago, but I'm not sure four score.

[Melissa Lee]

And stones is a way.

[Tim Seymour]

Whatever. Okay, don't correct me on this. The question is, will the market care whether this Moody's downgrade or not? You know, is it relevant that ADP also reported today a revision for August that now had two successive months of negative job growth, at least in the ADP report, which is typically totally not correlated, but somehow maybe we want to talk about that today because that would be seen as the beginning of recessionary. So anyway, I would agree. I think this is going to be a short term moment in time.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up intel jumping another 7% as a beaten down chip maker. Reportedly Ready's another foundry customer. All the wheelie and dealing they've been doing and how it's helped turn that stock around. Plus a Reddit reduction, shares getting hit on reports of falling traffic, the AI effect sinking those shares ahead. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back into.

[Tim Seymour]

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[Melissa Lee]

Everyone's got a reason to rack.

[Guy Adami]

You know they have Marc Jacobs, Nike.

[Melissa Lee]

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[Tim Seymour]

These Doritos Golden Sriracha aren't that spicy.

[Melissa Lee]

Sriracha sounds pretty spicy to me.

[Tim Seymour]

Um, a little spicy, but also tangy and sweet.

[Melissa Lee]

Maybe it's time to turn up the heat. Or turn it down.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

It's time for something that's not too spicy.

[Tim Seymour]

Try Doritos Golden Sriracha.

[Melissa Lee]

Spicy but not too spicy. Welcome back to Fast money. Intel shares jumping 7% today on reports the semiconductor company is in early talks to add AMD as a customer, making this a huge win for their Foundry business stock is up nearly 50% in the past month as it continues to announce all sorts of deals and partnerships, or even almost deals and almost partnerships. Christina Parts Nevilles is here with the tale of the tape for Intel.

[Christina Partsnevilles]

Oh, I'm going to focus on that. Use the word almost. I'm going to focus on that, let's start intel amd. They're long time rivals but they're reportedly in early talks for AMD to use Intel's manufacturing facilities. This is according to semaphore. The stock popped 7% on the news today in AMD actually indirectly called this just a rumor saying quote, AMD does not comment on rumor or speculation. But today's pop follows last week's 20% jump the day Apple Talks rumors came out on September 24th and then a 21% surge on TSM rumors on September 25th. And then you've got that 17% pop from that 177 I should say September 17th close to the 19th after the Nvidia investment. So there's been a lot of movement just in the last month for intel shares. The pattern though is clear. Intel's collecting endorsements from Nvidia, the White House now reportedly Apple TSMC for potential investments. AMD maybe as a customer. And these marquee names are Intel's what I'm calling, we talked about this last week rescue team. And the commonality with all of these headlines is that they're dubbed early talks which means none may pan out. And yet the stock reacts and the underlying challenges are still very serious. Intel's foundry operations are bleeding 3 billion per quarter. Its Advanced 14, a process node, needs customers. It can't match TSMC cutting edge technology just yet. And the question remains whether this star studded investor lineup can translate financial firepower into technological credibility that intel desperately needs.

[Melissa Lee]

I mean you got to wonder at what point the market starts clawing back these gains made on these reports that don't come to fruition with President Trump's.

[Christina Partsnevilles]

I guess the 10% stake in the company and the fact that President Trump is very adamant about having, you know, chips being built on American soil. This is almost, this company is almost seen as a critical infrastructure as opposed to just a company that is being publicly traded on the market. So that's what I think could keep this going higher 100%.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

True.

[Guy Adami]

And that's something we talked, we've talked about the potential for that for the last couple of years and I agree that's all true at some point now, now valuation comes into play because right before our eyes it's become a stock that's probably trading at 50 times ish next year's number with a quarter coming up in the middle of October, which they better say something good. Although I think this becomes short lived. I thought 34 and a half made sense. Here we are, it's overshot I don't think, I don't think you chase here.

[Dan Nathan]

All right, so Foundries, they're tough businesses. That's why so many of these companies are fabulous. Right. It's why Taiwan Semi is a 1 trillion billion company and they make 90% of the high end GPUs on the planet. So I think the idea that everyone wants to use intel as a foundry company, this is one of the problems. This stock was trading at 10 year lows, they weren't successful at it. So capital doesn't exactly fix the problem. Right. Like so I just think of this and I say amd, Nvidia, it's good PR for them to get behind this sort of thing. I just can't imagine that intel five years from now is going to be be making too many of these chips for their biggest competitors.

[Tim Seymour]

And I think this is a case where yeah, we knew this was going to be Semiconductor usa but we are at a point with all the vagaries around this and this announcement with amd it sounds like a sublet to me. It doesn't sound, I mean like big deal so you have some extra office space and maybe this. But I mean really because I mean it having extra manufacturing capacity in something that they're not manufacturing right now is effectively the same thing. So I'm basically out of jail on a bad trade. And this to me it's not how I trade oh wow. It's now price for the higher than when I got in. It's truly though looking at the dynamic here, this has been a gift. It doesn't mean that there won't still be that support because we do need that US Semiconductor national champion. But I'm just not sure it's not without either a lot of dilution or something that we haven't seen yet.

[Melissa Lee]

From your standpoint Christina, does it make sense that AMD would do this? And it didn't seem to make sense about Taiwan Semi until the reports came across that the White House is going to ask all chip makers 50% of the of chips to be manufactured in the United States and one for one ratio, the Taiwan Semi seem to make more sense.

[Christina Partsnevilles]

Yeah. So that would be why all of these corporations may say something. Either it'll be an investment like we saw with Nvidia which by the way did not say they would invest or do anything with the foundry business. And to your point, that is still the major issue with amd. Maybe becoming a customer of the foundry business is a better sign, but it's not going to be or I should assume it's not going to be for the most advanced 14A or 18A process processes that intel is working on. So I think that is a big issue still for Intel.

[Melissa Lee]

Christina, thank you. Christina. Parts nebulous. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.

[Tim Seymour]

Binging backlash as Elon Musk joins calls for customers to cancel their Netflix subscriptions. The show creator comments fueling the outcry and the impact on the streaming giant. Plus the Nike swoosh hitting shares as.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

The stock laces up after results.

[Tim Seymour]

The numbers fueling the jump and why the competition is tripping up.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

You're watching Fast Money live from the.

[Tim Seymour]

NASDAQ market site in Times Square.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before?

[Tim Seymour]

I have no fear of failure.

[Melissa Lee]

Trailblazing women, changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power players. New episodes every Tuesday, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast money. Stocks starting Q4 in the green shaking off the government shutdown worries. And now in a four day winning streak, the Dow and S and the S&P 500 closing at fresh record highs. The S and P surpassing 6700 for the first time ever. And the NASDAQ climbing 4.10of a percent. Shares of Reddit getting hit, the stock dropping nearly 12% on reports the site has seen reduced traffic thanks in part to a decrease in citations from chat. GPT auto stocks meantime driving higher. Ford and GM both in the green after reporting Q3 sales. And Tesla charging higher ahead of its delivery numbers which are due out tomorrow. And Zillow dropping nearly 5% today. The FTC suing both Zillow and Redfin, now part of Rocket Mortgage, claiming the real estate giants violated antitrust laws by illegally conspiring to reduce competition in the online multifamily rental listing market. Ags in New York, Virginia, Arizona, Connecticut and Washington are also suing the companies. As of this point in time, Zillow is down four and a half percent. Karen, you flagged this one because you own Zillow.

[Karen Finerman]

Yes, I was sad about it. That's why I flagged it. But I wanted to come clean. I mean, it's been a tough couple of weeks. Even with rates, you know, moving somewhat in the right direction. There was that Compass deal anywhere. So that started and this isn't helpful. The rental business, I still think this is by far and away the best platform. And when we do, and hopefully that will happen when we do start to see more homes getting sold either new or inventory and I think the rental business is still good, we will see.

[Melissa Lee]

Zillow do better than yeah, you want to go autos.

[Tim Seymour]

I'll take GM for a thousand, Mel and I'll say that those US deliveries were better than expected. Everybody keeps, keeps expecting both the consumer to buckle. We get a lot of consumer credit numbers, but it doesn't change the reality of how old the cars are on the road. We also know those numbers. And I just feel we had this whole conversation about intel being America's superpower in terms of semiconductors. But, but GM that that deal with the White House in terms of lithium is something that should not be understated in terms of where GM sits also as USA Auto and some of the dynamics around the auto sector and where we are with batteries. And I just think, I think if you look at GM's chart, this may be the most interesting reason to buy the company after essentially bouncing around running up to the $61. I think this is a breakout. I think it's time to buy the stock, not sell it.

[Guy Adami]

Look real quick at GM November of 2021, I think we got to 63 bucks in the game of would you rather which we play often. I think collectively we said GM, but this a critical level here at 63.

[Melissa Lee]

All right, coming up, the latest drama on Netflix as Elon Musk backs calls for customers to cancel the streaming giant. What we know about the binging backlash when Fast Money returns.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

Missed a moment of fast Catch us anytime on the go Follow the Fast Money podcast.

[Tim Seymour]

We're back right after this.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Netflix shares falling over 2% today after Elon Musk urged his followers on average Netflix to cancel their subscriptions. Musk taking issue with the presence of a transgender character on one of the streaming platform shows he posted cancel Netflix for the health of your kids this morning. Our Steve Kovac has more on all of this drama.

[Tim Seymour]

Steve oh boy, here we go. Look at the power of an Elon Musk tweet. Mel because the targeted rage of that tweet and of his fans and followers, they sent Netflix shares down 2% today after mess spent part of his day tweeting about that Netflix show called Dead End Paranormal park, which features a Transgender character. It's an animated show, by the way. Now, I think you guys can see where this is going. Musk called on his followers to cancel Netflix and said he already did so himself. He also criticized Netflix's DEI policies and pointed to it as another reason to cancel the service. There's also a lot of Charlie Kirk talk being thrown in there as well. Now look, dead end Paranormal Park. It was actually canceled back in 2023 after a 20 episode run of the show in 2022, so about three years old. The show is still hosted on Netflix like any other canceled originally programming Netflix has made. Now it appears that the X account called Libs of TikTok discovered the show and posted about it on X, which drew Musk's attention and anger. Now, Variety reporting today, the creator of the show said he's been receiving anti Semitic and homophobic comments following Musk's post today. Variety also reported he had to take a social media break to all the comments and harassment he received from Musk and his fans. Now, Netflix did not respond to a request for comment. But here you go again, seeing the richest guy in the world, Mel, playing around in the culture wars.

[Melissa Lee]

Yep. Steve, thank you, Steve Kovach. A lot to follow along there, but you know, just doing some of the back of the envelope sort of. Matt, in the US and Canada, Netflix had 89 million subscribers. Let's say half. Some of them are Canada, let's say half. 40 million, just for argument's sake, are Republican. Let's say 10% cancel. That seems like a lot. You're still talking about only 1% of global subscribers.

[Guy Adami]

So, you know, two and a half to 4 million people.

[Melissa Lee]

10%. 10% is sort of a big estimate.

[Guy Adami]

It is this play stock market here. Yes, you're right. I think the math is right. It's probably a little bit less than that. But is that going to move the needle necessarily? And you're going to see people sign up on the back of that to counter it. So I think there's some mitigation. Again, Netflix is not traded well, since earnings, I think we all can agree on that and maybe for the first time, valuation is concerned. I will tell you, Tom Rogers came on the show right around that earnings period and actually for the first time in years was somewhat cautious on Netflix, which gave us all pause. But I don't think this is a reason to sell the stock.

[Dan Nathan]

You know, it's interesting. I mean, his sales got canceled, let's be honest. Over the last year and a half, sales are expected to Be down or deliveries of Tesla cars 10% this year, maybe a little worse. It was down in 20, 24, year, year over year. And I just find it really curious. I mean, here's a guy who's a free speech absolutist. This is meant to be absolutist. I mean, we know what that word means. So it just, this is the sort of hand to hand combat we just don't need in the stock market. I mean, I know that that's just, it just seems kind of silly at this point.

[Melissa Lee]

I don't want to. I'm not going to defend anybody here and I take no position on this whatsoever. But you can be free speech and still say you should not listen to this for the health of your children, but let it exist out there. Right. So you're still allowing it to. He's not saying Netflix, take it down. He's just saying, people, don't let your kids listen to that. So I think that's, that's how you.

[Dan Nathan]

But he's also saying cancel your subscription.

[Melissa Lee]

Cancel your subscription. Yeah, yeah. He's not telling Netflix to take it down.

[Dan Nathan]

Was already taken down.

[Melissa Lee]

Well, not there.

[Dan Nathan]

I mean, like, you know, I mean, whatever.

[Tim Seymour]

To play stock market, which is all I want to do here. You know, we've had these moments in time where whether it was an ad campaign that went wrong or whether it was some sense that a company was aligned in a particular political channel, and we've seen it from some of the biggest companies the world. It's not just Budweiser, it's Nike. It's, you name it, it. I don't think that that's going to be the reason to sell Netflix here. And we've all said here, this stock is very expensive. Yes. Can a day with these headlines move the stock around? They will. I won't, you know, I won't speculate beyond that.

[Melissa Lee]

All those, all those examples, though, that you gave, the boycotts and the protests lasted much longer than anybody, I think, expected in terms of an impact. Budweiser.

[Karen Finerman]

Budweiser was.

[Tim Seymour]

Budweiser has been one of the great buyers over the last six months. When, when you work through some of that.

[Karen Finerman]

Yeah, that's true, but the destruction there was far greater than any other one that I recall. And if. Yeah, so I feel like this will be very fleeting.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, Nike hitting the ground running after last night's upbeat earnings report. More reaction to the numbers and the sportswear giants biggest competitors next.

[Tim Seymour]

This December, join the celebration in Times Square. CNBC opens its doors for an Exclusive in person experience at the iconic Nashville.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

NASDAQ market site in New York City. Fast Money LIVE Trading the holidays Join Melissa Lee and the team of traders.

[Tim Seymour]

Live and on air for an all.

[Jack Genesiewicz]

Access celebration unwrapping trades, trends and tips to ring in the new year. Fast Money LIVE trading the holidays December 11th.

[Tim Seymour]

Get your tickets now at CNBC events.com fastmoney.

[Melissa Lee]

Welcome back to Fast Money. Nike shares surging almost 6.5% following their earnings beat last night. The sneaker giants surprising with sales growth after guiding for a decline last quarter but added they expect to decline for the current quarter and believe the tariff hit will climb from $1 billion to a half billion for the year. A nice bump today for Dick's Sporting Goods. Meantime, the struggles though been real for a host of other sneaker makers. Deckers on on and Birkenstock. Tim, got to go to you on this.

[Tim Seymour]

Well, look at the charts, look even at the valuations that when you talk about on on Burke Crocs, these are all, you know, kind of near April lows and all we do is talk about the challenges at Lulu. So some of this I think is the discretionary apparel athleisure space, although Burke's. I don't know what do you wear them when you put them on?

[Guy Adami]

I often wear them. I don't wear socks with them. So you can see my exposed feet.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah, it's a tough, it's a tough visual for the folks at home. The visual though ultimately for where these charts go. In a world where the consumer is really under some pressure. This is a world where the consumer is not necessarily under a ton of pressure consumer at least the high end consumer who is buying this stuff. Stay away from these.

[Guy Adami]

We brought up Tim last night whilst he wasn't here twice in one show. And we said last quarter, June 26, Nike reported lousy quarter. I thought the stock would go lower. It did for about 15 minutes. Tim said no, you buy it here. And the stock proceeded to go from 64 to 80. Last night I said I'm not going to make the same mistake twice. We talked about it earlier in the week and this quarter was actually better than last quarter. So I actually think there's some room to run here in Nke.

[Melissa Lee]

Is it expensive, Karen?

[Karen Finerman]

Yeah, it's expensive. I'm long it's expensive. There are signs of life here and I think the chance for it to become less expensive in the near term is it's there. I was surprised. To me the interesting thing was for Dick's they talked about the wholesale story. A lot on the Nike call and that's been a big push of theirs. Dick's with the new Foot Locker acquisition. I hopefully be the beneficiary of that stock was up 10 bucks.

[Tim Seymour]

Yeah.

[Dan Nathan]

Just pointing out the retail. I know you want to go deeper into Dick's here, but like the big box guys I think are really interesting today on the back of this shutdown because look at Wal Mart, look at Costco, look at Home Depot. It just seems like there's some weakness away from this, you know, shoe trade that you guys are all over.

[Melissa Lee]

Coming up, call disconnected. Why analysts are hanging up on AT&T and how you are traders are handling the cellular stock. That's next. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of Jabil. Catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More Fast Money into It is time now for the final trade.

[Tim Seymour]

Tim Seymour, Gold Miners GDX I mean there was a time gold was defensive. There was Karen, how many a lot of reasons to buy gold.

[Karen Finerman]

Anything you want.

[Tim Seymour]

Anything you want. Well, the reason now is because I think it is offense for gold miners. Free cash flow yields are awesome. Stay there.

[Melissa Lee]

Chairwoman.

[Christina Partsnevilles]

Yes.

[Karen Finerman]

So all of this talk about pharmaceuticals leads me back to Tim and my Pfizer shared custody. Pfizer misbehaves, Tim sometimes takes care of me and then sort of. I've had some bad times with Pfizer as well, but I think those days are behind it.

[Dan Nathan]

And you know how we have that little acronym thing? Thing we do? Yeah, the G in gen AI, that's my acronym. Not doing particularly well. But if you like intel for the Foundry stuff, you're probably eventually going to like. Global Foundries played the game like Karen did.

[Tim Seymour]

I think the government. Sorry, Global Foundry, San Intel, Bristol Myers.

[Melissa Lee]

Thanks for watching. Fast Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Julia Boorstin sits down with Thrive Global founder and CEO Arianna Huffington. What advice would you give to young people now trying to navigate this crazy world?

[Karen Finerman]

My advice is to pick a time at the end of the day that you declare as the end of your working day. Because let's face it, there is no.

[Melissa Lee]

End to our working day. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC changemakers and power players. Listen now, wherever you get your podcasts.