← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Big Tech Bounce… And An Economic Warning From JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon 4/14/26
00:43:34
Nvidia and the rest of the Mag7 stocks helping fuel a big tech bounce, with software, semis, and nearly every part of the tech trade in the green. What the Fast Money traders make of the action, and if the good times can continue. Plus Why one bank analyst is calling the private credit concerns overblown, a potential mega merger in the airline space, and why JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is warning of increasingly complex economic risks. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
Tech changed the world, but so did the bubonic plague.
- [00:03]
Steve Grasso
Sundays exclusively on AMC and amc. The highly anticipated new drama series, the Audacity.
- [00:09]
Tim Seymour
Genius is about being unhinged enough to do something outrageous.
- [00:12]
Steve Grasso
The show that Mashable says tears Silicon Valley a new one.
- [00:15]
Disclaimer Voice
People who have no integrity.
- [00:16]
Melissa Lee
Did you make the acquisition Ribeye?
- [00:18]
Tim Seymour
No.
- [00:19]
Steve Grasso
Maybe from one of the minds behind Succession and Better Call Saul.
- [00:22]
Dan Nathan
We want to save the world or control it.
- [00:24]
Tim Seymour
Most of us go.
- [00:25]
Melissa Lee
Dr.
- [00:25]
Steve Grasso
Evil, the audacity. All new Sundays exclusively on AMC and amc.
- [00:30]
Disclaimer Voice
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member SIPC
- [01:02]
Melissa Lee
live in the NASDAQ MarketSite in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Big tech and rally mode. The Max 7 adding a combined $400 billion in market cap today. The NASDAQ closing at its best level since the end of January. What's behind the gains? Can the momentum last and bank on financials? Citigroup hitting highs last seen 18 years ago as earnings revenue handily beat estimates is the time to go all in on this group. We'll get some answers. Plus Bitcoin hits a key level. Netflix gets some Wall street love ahead of ear and a slew of upgrades in the auto sector. Of stocks hitting the accelerator, how much higher can they go? We will debate that. I'm Melissa Lee coming to you live from CDB at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Steve Grasso, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We kick things off with the massive bounce in big tech Nvidia notching a 10th straight day in the green, tying its longest ever winning streak. It is up nearly 20% in that time. Those gains helping push this SMH semi ETF to an all time high. But it wasn't just chip stocks leading the way. All, all but one member of the mag 7up today. Matter jumping more than 4%. Even the long suffering software space up a percent. Though it did close off its highs of the session. Western Digital, Seagate, Marvell lam Research and KLA 10 Corp. KLA Corp. I should say among the tech stocks hitting records today. So what do these moves tell us about the state of this market. Should we read into this big bounce in tech? Tim?
- [02:26]
Tim Seymour
I think you should read into it and I think it's not just today. I mean I think semis have been outperforming and leading this market higher. But you're, you're definitely honing in on the outperformance of mega cap tech. And I am talking about at least the Mag 6. Apple's been kind of quiet. The fact that we're talking about Nvidia up 10 straight days and we haven't talked about the last nine. I mean it's amazing what this market is doing. And if you look at the Nasdaq, the fact that we are, you know, 13% up off that intraday low. And what I think is interesting is there are catalysts and there are drivers to get somewhat excited about these names again. And I realize it's just about maybe the broader news flow, but I mean the Amazon deal, I'm sure we're going to talk about today, the optionality that I think exists for a number of the mega cap tech plays. I also think that today continues to be about normalizing. So that means weaker dollar, that means copper prices going to near all time highs. We're even getting some good news in private credit. So it's taken markets higher.
- [03:20]
Dan Nathan
It is pretty remarkable though when you think of a name like Micron. We were sitting on the desk the night that that guidance came out. I mean it was remarkable. I mean the quarter that they put up and then the stock proceeded to sell off 33%. I mean think about that. And a guy you'.
- [03:32]
Guy Adami
Math. Yeah, well, apparently not.
- [03:34]
Dan Nathan
Well, I don't know.
- [03:35]
Tim Seymour
I think, I think we need to try it out. We got to crunch the number.
- [03:38]
Dan Nathan
Stock went down 33% from an all time high and now it's up 50% break even. Wow. I mean that is good stuff. I mean, but that is just remarkable when you think about it. We were talking, I think last night about the reversal that we had a year ago, right. The S and P dropped 25. It's one thing for a stock to drop 25% and then rally back. So some of the behavior we're seeing, I mean to think about a company like this and the results that they have in the stock moving around, hundreds of billions of dollars in that sort of period. And here's another thing. When you look at the faithful eight, you know, this was a defensive trade. A lot of folks thought that they're going to come right back to this. And you hear this all the Time. If this was just kind of this little pause in a secular bull market and you never have the same leadership as you had the prior time, I think this new market structure, it's really impossible for that not to be the case. So I just think you're seeing money pile in here as we get back towards the prior highs.
- [04:32]
Steve Grasso
I do believe though, the market is just on a risk, on risk, off basis.
- [04:35]
Dan Nathan
Right.
- [04:36]
Steve Grasso
With, with the war. It's obvious. And just to use Dan's Micron example, there was no way I thought it was going to get back to these levels gap. And the fact that it got here so quickly is shocking, which makes me want to fade it again. So I think you're going to get a honeymoon stage where they pile back into a large cap tech and then pile back into Quantum and pile back into risk assets. But I do believe you should be prudent and make some sales.
- [05:03]
Melissa Lee
I mean, I think that if you ask anybody at the beginning of the war, will we be back to January highs this quickly with the conflict still going on, with an oil shock still going on? Most people would say no.
- [05:15]
Guy Adami
Absolutely I would have said no.
- [05:17]
Melissa Lee
Shocking is shocking. Not just technology.
- [05:19]
Guy Adami
No way. And we talked about it last night. I would have obviously would have been wrong. That's, that's par for the course. And again, Tim's been, he has not wavered on the semi trade. And then you look at the smh, he's right to have not wavered. I guess there's a risk out there in the semis. If there is a risk, it comes in the form potentially of the President's trip to China, I guess a month or so from now. And you wonder that, you know, if Taiwan becomes some sort of bargaining chip that's out there and if something happens between China and Taiwan, I wouldn't take that off the table. I don't think there's a greater than 50% chance, but there is a chance that that happens. Short of that, it looks like all systems go here. I will say quickly. I think the software trade might be back in play. Michael Burry put out a piece. I think Dan was talking about it. Microsoft in a couple of weeks, as important a quarter as they had. And I think so much discounted now in terms of the bad news, anything in line is slightly better. And I think the IGV goes up significantly from here.
- [06:11]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. And so guys, referring to, and I don't know if we talked about it yesterday, but Michael Burry put on Cassandra Unchained. I think that's his Substack. You have a substack.
- [06:18]
Guy Adami
Don't you have a few.
- [06:20]
Steve Grasso
You got an ointment for that.
- [06:21]
Guy Adami
Everyone's got, you know, you've got the cvs.
- [06:23]
Dan Nathan
Whoa. So he was talking about the reflexivity between equity be in software and the debt. And I think a lot of folks are obviously focused on Oracle. And when we saw the five year CBS just blowing out, getting back towards, you know, financial crisis levels, the stock was at its lows. The stock has had a great couple of days. It's still, I mean if you just look at the thing, it still looks like it's down and out. And so I think the guy's point, you have this big rally off the lows. What gave up a lot of that today. I see a lot of the, you know, red in that sector here. So, you know, it doesn't have to be that semis and the NASDAQ continue to make these kind of highs or levels and software has to participate. That's what we've had over the last few months. We didn't need software to participate for the market to trade.
- [07:05]
Steve Grasso
Well, I think the biggest tailwind for the market is the oil coming off the highs and I think that's why you might get an extended rally. But I think that's the, that's the reason why the market is so frenzied about the highs right now and jumping back into risk assets.
- [07:20]
Melissa Lee
We're one headline away from oil going back up. And even if the war ends tomorrow, there are a lot of disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is not going to be the same the way it was before. Allowing ships, transit. It's just not good. It's going to take a long time for that to get back to the way it was, if it ever gets back to the way it was.
- [07:37]
Tim Seymour
And our friends in Europe have a different plan for how you're going to monitor that. And I do think that there is a price to be paid, not just literally, but the follow through on higher oil prices. Having said that, again, you talk about what the market needed to see. And it wasn't just Iran. You know, we had a pie that said wholesale prices even with war data were benign, in fact, if not better. So just reiterating that for markets that now look, this is a V shape. This is more V than April. In other words, this is almost a symmetrical V. And it's extraordinary. And you had credit help out, you had comments from BlackRock, you had blue Owl raising some fresh money. I mean you had all the ingredients on Top of the fact that you've got oil there and now we're in earnings season. And so the cool thing about this is companies, if the street, which didn't waver on their EPS targets, I mean, if you actually are getting what they said you're going to get, I think markets are positioned to move higher.
- [08:33]
Melissa Lee
That's a terrible setup though. It's a terrible set to be V be back at the top of the V ahead of earnings season where sentiment
- [08:41]
Tim Seymour
here, I mean, I just turn on a dime. This is a negative V, but it's
- [08:45]
Guy Adami
a negative the one that's what.
- [08:47]
Melissa Lee
I don't know what that means.
- [08:48]
Tim Seymour
Careful.
- [08:49]
Dan Nathan
The one thing I'll say is like, look what's happened also in the last week, right? So you've had tensions come down, you've had a VIX go into the teens. It probably feels like it's going to be a mid teenager really soon. You've had yields come in, you've had the dollar come in. I'm not bullish. I agree with you. I think it's a bad setup. But I think to Tim's point, if you can look by the war and some of the disruptions, you can call it kind of transitory, then there's a lot of things going in the stock market's favor, nothing more. I mean, to me, like the sentiment shakeout I think was really important. So you have a lot of tailwinds right now. If you could just X out all the impacts of the war.
- [09:20]
Guy Adami
If you can make an argument that the VIX at eighteen and a quarter wherever, closed today, whatever hedges that were in place with a Vix in the mid-20s have either elapsed or been taken off or people just basically threw in the towel. So VIX here, the VIX is lower than when the war starts, significantly lower than where the war started, which is amazing. Now people will say, you know what, going into earnings season, I think EPS growth for this year is somewhere between 18 and 19%, which again is extraordinary. Maybe on the back of productivity we shall see, but that's in the market now. So any hiccup? I think to your point, and the VIX at eighteen and a quarter, I think it should not stay here for long.
- [09:56]
Melissa Lee
So back when the conflict started, there was a thinking, a narrative that investors sort of held in there in the S&P 500 help because they were afraid that they would miss out on that V bottom. Did we just witness the V bottom in anticipation of the worst being behind?
- [10:11]
Steve Grasso
I don't know if you can Say that you're on the second round of talks so you can't say it's behind us. We have to actually see a conclusion. But the markets always look through and ahead.
- [10:21]
Melissa Lee
So was that it? Was that it?
- [10:23]
Steve Grasso
So I think, I don't think it's
- [10:24]
Tim Seymour
a W. I mean, let's get out our Alphabet. I mean this is, you know, it's not a double.
- [10:28]
Melissa Lee
We're not good. So we've seen the worst of the conflict, worst levels, I don't know.
- [10:33]
Tim Seymour
But I can tell you that at least the market digesting where we are right now with the dynamics of oil at 100 or $120, this is what the market looked at. And it quickly took big Cap tech down to a in line multiple with the rest of the market, which it hasn't done in years. I mean you had an opportunity. I'm not saying that, that I got it right. I'm not saying that people at home should have gotten it right. But if you look at at least where we are now, back to you had a chance to look at the biggest, highest quality companies in the world and they, they, they traded down to in line multiple with the S and P which came in as well. So there's a lot of bad news that still could be out there. But I continue to think that the upward kind of bottom up call on companies and earnings will be very interesting for the rest of this earnings season.
- [11:19]
Steve Grasso
Yet you have tax cuts that are taking hold right now. There's a little more money in people's pockets that are compensating for the rise in costs that are around them. You also have midterm elections that are coming up. So there's got to be something on the easing front for the voter, I would think out of the administration. If we get a true end to the war and to the conflict and the strai rate opens up, then I think the market really rips higher.
- [11:44]
Melissa Lee
All right, despite this week's bounce, the software ETF IGV is down nearly 25% this year amid growing concerns over the impact of AI. Our next guest says 80% of VC funding in Q1 went to AI. Let's bring in Notable Capital's Jeff Richards. Notable is an investor in Anthropic. Jeff, great to have you with us.
- [12:03]
Jeff Richards
Great to be with you.
- [12:04]
Melissa Lee
It's the perfect perspective because this afternoon we saw a headline from the information saying that Claude is releasing an AI website design tool and that promptly took down the likes of Adobe and Figma, which had already been down on the fear of AI disruption. So the software rally is only as safe as, you know, as the next a headline, basically. What do you make of where we are in terms of processing what the disruption will be?
- [12:30]
Jeff Richards
Well, it's obviously been a wild six months. You know, if you wind back the clock six months ago, we were worried about OpenAI's financing and the risk to Oracle and companies like that or the hyperscaler spending too much money. I think what you saw with the latest version of cloud in Q1 is a pretty magical product and people are consuming it at a record pace. You've seen the derivative of that in private markets with companies like Vercel and Foul and Databricks and others that are experiencing record growth. Their growth actually went up in Q1. They were growing at a very fast clip in 2025 and it went up this year. So we're still early in the days of what all the impacts are this are going to be. And obviously a ton of speculation every time a new announcement comes out as to how that affects an industry. I think, you know, we're very long term investors. We're obviously very bullish on companies like Anthropic and Open and AI. But the reality is the big software companies, you know, particularly in places like cybersecurity like Crowdstrike and Palo Alto I think have very durable positions. Vertical software looks pretty durable, but people are going to speculate, there's going to be a lot of volatility until those companies come out with announcements about new products and new innovation on their end that lead you to believe they've got a bright future.
- [13:39]
Dan Nathan
Hey Jeff, you know a name like Adobe and you just highlighted the fact that, you know, Anthropic is just announced a new tool, it's all over them. And you know, this company guided about a month ago to like 10% earnings and sales growth for the rest of the year. And when you look at this is an 89% gross margin company, you've been around investing in a lot of different cycles in tech. I'm sure you'd say this is probably the most disruptive you've ever seen. But there has to be some unusual values that have just kind of baby with the bathwater a little bit. Is that kind of what you're thinking? Are you seeing that at all?
- [14:09]
Jeff Richards
Well, one of the biggest disruptions to companies like Adobe and seat based companies like Salesforce and others is a lot of what's happening with AI is it's being consoled on a consumption model. So one of the things we like to focus on and ask ourselves as we're making an investment is, is this company in the token path? That is the models get better, does their business model and does their product suite get better? And I think one of the challenges for the legacy software companies is they aren't really in that token path. They're tied to a path that was tied to seats or an annual subscription. And what you're seeing now is the fastest growing in the companies in the private markets are all growing as token consumption goes up. And if we think about where token consumption is in say your average Fortune 500 company, it's just getting started. So the reason to believe in a company like Adobe or Salesforce or others will be when they come out with, with products that have pricing models that are tied to that token path. But until then, it's going to be a challenge. So many of these private companies are growing quickly because they're in the cloud infrastructure space and they are a derivative of what anthropic and open air doing. As people consume more tokens, they drive more revenue. And I just don't think you see that with a lot of the legacy software companies. You do see it with the, like the hyperscalers, clearly Azure, gcp, you know us, they benefit in a big way as more tokens get consumed and more infrastructure gets consumed. But for legacy software is still up in the air.
- [15:28]
Guy Adami
So jr, for the publicly traded software companies, as this move since October been rational or irrational in your opinion?
- [15:36]
Jeff Richards
Opinion, I don't think it's irrational. I think the fear, there's probably some of that is built on the fear of what's going on with geopolitics and just general uncertainty. But as a lot of your guests have talked about today, the economy looks strong. UBS forecast for earnings in Q1 of 17% would be the highest in five years. So from our vantage point, and we do have companies in the consumer sector, we have a company called Quince, which is the fastest growing E commerce business. They've had record quarters for the last 18 months. So we see a lot of underlying strength, obviously a lot of uncertainty at a, at a global level. And then you just have this, you know, every time Anthropic or OpenAI comes out with a new product, it calls into question some of the durability of the legacy software companies. And one data point guy I'll share with you is if you take the IGV, the total net new revenue of the IVG composite companies last year was about $60 billion. About half of that went to Microsoft. If you just take the top five to 10 private AI companies. So that's OpenAI, it's anthropic, it's databricks for sale, it's a few others, they will probably add 60 plus billion of revenue this year. So the IT spend market is increasing, the size of the market. The TAM is getting bigger. Companies are spending more money on things like cybersecurity and AI. But the net new spend is going to companies that are still private and obviously hopefully some of those companies will go public at some point.
- [16:55]
Melissa Lee
Jeff, great to see you. Thank you.
- [16:57]
Jeff Richards
Thanks for having me.
- [16:58]
Melissa Lee
Jeff Richards of Notable Capital, what do you make of the malaise in the software sector?
- [17:04]
Tim Seymour
Well, again, it was interesting to listen to J.R. talk about that. I think there really could be a fair amount of pain and that at the same time there's no question about the growth that some of these companies are seeing. There's also no question though, I would just get back to the names that really there's no question the demand they're seeing. And I would go back to a Taiwan semi, I would go back to an asml. I would go back to infrastructure plays within the AI tech space. That spend on it is is fascinating. JP Morgan talking about how cyber, those threats, those risks. JP Morgan is making a lot of money. They will be. Does that mean a crowd strikes in a better position or worse? We don't know.
- [17:43]
Unknown Advertiser Voice
Yeah.
- [17:44]
Dan Nathan
I think one of the most important points that Jeff just made is that the Fortune 500, they're just getting started. Right. So when you think about that, and he just kind of gave that stat about the companies in the private market that are growing sales as fast as they are on a relative basis to the in the igv. And then it goes back to that consumption model because this is also a story about CPUs. It's one of the reasons why intel has had this move because consumption, a lot of it's going to be in inference. Right. And so it's kind of all coming together. I just think it's all coming together kind of quickly here. So that just to me it feels a little dangerous at this point.
- [18:16]
Melissa Lee
We've got a news alert we want to get to on an AI partnership between Metta and Broadcom. Mackenzie Segal has got the details. Hey Matt.
- [18:23]
Mackenzie Segal
Hey, Mel. Broadcom shares bouncing after hours. Up nearly 4% after better announced it's extending its partners with the chip maker on its next generation of AI chips. Meta announced it would be debuting four new custom silicon options last month. And now we know that Broadcom will be their manufacturing partner in it. As part of this announcement, Broadcom CEO Hak Tan will transition off of Meta's board of directors, moving into more of an advisory role for the company where he'll be giving guidance on Meta's in house AI chip roadmap.
- [18:51]
Melissa Lee
Mel Mac. Thanks Mackenzie, Segalos and Tim, this goes to your semiconductors and they, they win in this trade.
- [18:59]
Tim Seymour
They win and maybe even the ones that don't have the brand name high margin chips out there, the ones that eventually we're going to get to either folks want to do it in house, but they want to partner, they want to white label it. That's been the more dominant trend over the last three months.
- [19:14]
Steve Grasso
And this is why Broadcom is really in that unique spot where they're doing the custom chip development and most of the hyperscalers want something that's really specific to them and it does the workaround for Nvidia. This has been a story that prob took really long for the investment community to understand and now they're starting to
- [19:31]
Guy Adami
get it with the downstream plays. And I think you've brought this name up. Look at Bloom Energy today. What that stock did I think was on the back of an Oracle announcement. But you know, all these sort of tangential energy plays are off to the races. So I think that Tim and Steve's point, it means the trade is probably still alive and well.
- [19:47]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, I want to be clear here. I mean like we sound kind of bullish and some of us have been less bullish than the others here. And that's not my view right now. I think it's a hard place when you see piling in. You go from a really negative sentiment to really positive incentive. There's been great story in this whole market over the last three years or so and we're going to kind of anniversary that three year of that first in video blowout quarter number. It was May of 2023. And it's just crazy to think that here's where we are this, I guess long into this kind of early stage of this cycle. It just hasn't been much of a digestion play phase across the whole nasdaq. We know that a lot of the magic seven corrected. Maybe that's it. I just have a hard time getting too bullish right here in these James.
- [20:27]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a potential mega merger in the skies. What a United American deal would mean for the space and the antitrust hurdles they would have to clear before takeoff. Plus Quantum stocks taking a leap as the group rings in World Quantum Day. I know you've been cupcakes out there. You want to miss the celebration? Do not go anywhere Fast Money's back into.
- [20:52]
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- [22:20]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of United and American Airlines taking flight today. United CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitching a take of the rival carrier during a recent meeting with President trump. Our Phil LeBeau has more on this. Phil
- [22:35]
Phil LeBeau
Melissa, so far what we have today are these reports that came out late yesterday about Scott Kirby talking with President Trump, saying what about a possible merger with American Airlines? With that said, let's be clear. We have talked to a number of people today at both United, American and in the industry. There are no direct talks going on right now between United Airlines and American Airlines. That might change at some point, but at this point nothing formal has been presented. There hasn't even been an overture to American Airlines or board members there. Neither airline is commenting at this point and there are plenty of hurdles out there. Number of stories today talking about the fact that when you look at the market share between American, which is the largest in the United States of all the airlines, and United, which is number three. Combined, they would have 40% market share, essentially 40% market share, more than double in terms of size relative to Delta Airlines. So what would be some of the philosophy here that Scott Kirby might be looking at, might be saying, why does this make sense? Take a look at their market caps. He could make a pretty convincing pitch, likely to shareholders of American Airlines saying, look, our market cap is four times greater than yours. Our returns are much better than yours. We can do a better job running American Airlines as part of United Airlines than if you continue to be just investors in American. Don't know that is exactly what he's thinking. But that could be one argument that he's going to potentially make if this becomes a formal proposal. Take a look at the airline stocks today. Alaska, Delta, JetBlue, Southwest, they were all up today. Keep in mind, oil went down, so there was probably some short covering that was going on as well, which also added to the momentum behind the airline stocks. And finally, Melissa, I think this is the most interesting chart of all. I'm going back to September of 2016. Why are we doing that? And why are we showing you United versus American since then? September of 2016 is when Scott Kirby left American Airlines, where he was president of American Airlines. But it was clear he was not gonna become CEO and he went to United. And Oscar Munoz said, come on in here. You're going to help us run this airline for a while and eventually you'll likely be CEO. And that happened, I think, three or four years later. No comparison in terms of performance between the two airlines since Scott Kirby went to United Airlines from American Airlines. So there's that. That's where we are, Melissa. This is. This feels like one of those stories that's going to kind of. It's going to linger. It's going to hang out there for a while.
- [25:07]
Melissa Lee
Well, it's interesting, you know, the reports indicate that he made this pitch to President Trump. And the implication is that because we haven't heard about this until now and there was no proposed merger that Trump said no, which would also imply that President Trump has an actual say in this. I thought that was sort of an issue.
- [25:26]
Phil LeBeau
This meeting happened just. He had. Melissa, he had this meeting just a few days before the Iran war and the bombing started. So you could also make the argument the president and his administration have been clearly much more focused on that than they have been on considering an airline merger. And let's also be clear here. Without a formal proposal, it's not unlikely that the president said, okay, that's Interesting. I don't know that for sure. He might have just said, well, yeah, but remember we talked to the transportation Secretary just last week and he said we're open to the idea of a merger within the airlines, even large airlines here in the United States has to be the right deal has to be structured with what we think will work work. But they are open to it.
- [26:07]
Melissa Lee
Yep. Phil, thanks. Phil LeBeau.
- [26:10]
Phil LeBeau
You bet.
- [26:11]
Melissa Lee
Bob Isom is 62 years old. The stock is lower than when he took over in 2022. So it compared to the others, it is an underperformer.
- [26:21]
Tim Seymour
It's a big underperformer. But, but its balance sheet has been a big issue. And I think the efficiency and how they run is another thing. I mean, you can't, you can't argue with the efficiency gains that you've seen at United, delayed those you've seen at Delta. And I think that's what's interesting for airlines on a day like today. And I think, you know, I mentioned that airlines couldn't outperform when I thought everything was moving for them right before the war. Now they've proven they can actually hold demand in higher prices. They could probably hold these prices higher. They cut capacity by two points. They're probably going to have as good of rasm. That's right, I said that, Melissa. That's revenue per available seat miles, mile as they've had in a long time. I think airlines are going to continue to rally here. It's strange that it took real headwinds for them for the market to see it.
- [27:07]
Steve Grasso
Well, I think airlines are going to rally because if you do have that end of the war and oil stays where it is, that's a natural tailwind. But this backstory, this seems personal to me. Does it not to you? I mean this is. He was showing the door. He didn't quit. He was showing the door and now he's coming back. Full circle goal. I think this one could go higher.
- [27:26]
Guy Adami
American, I think you're American. I mean, pull up the chart. I mean, Phil is talking about it, but it's gone nowhere for I think the better part of eight years now. It's pretty remarkable. And I would say this, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. That's just my thought. I mean, Delta's done extraordinarily well. United's within, I don't know, 8% of its all time high. Airline mergers historically haven't worked out all that well. So I don't think this is necessarily, it might be bullish. For American on the margins. I don't think it's great for United.
- [27:53]
Melissa Lee
They usually happen in times of duress to like when things are not good in the industry.
- [27:58]
Tim Seymour
I think they've certainly happened during periods where individually I don't think that there have been, I mean we're Talking about back 15, 20 years ago there was a lot of consolidation, but most of the consolidation has been have been forced dynamics of one going bankrupt and somebody stepping in and assuming the debt.
- [28:14]
Melissa Lee
There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [28:16]
Tim Seymour
Next, a big leap for Quantum Stocks, the group rallying on a very special holiday. How much potential is in the names and where do our traders see them heading next? Plus digging into bank results, why a top bank analyst calls the private credit concerns overblown, and why J.P. morgan CEO Jamie Dimon is ringing the alarm on economic risks. You're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [28:42]
Steve Grasso
This.
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- [30:17]
Melissa Lee
Welcome back to Fast Money, a very special holiday in the tech world today. Did you know about this? No World Quantum Day, an International event promoting public awareness and understanding of quantum science and technology. Why today? Well, April 14th is a reference to 4.14, the rounded first digest of Planck's constant. Obviously we all know that which is of foundational importance in the quantum world. Stocks in the quantum sector all rallying today in celebration. I include wave and more seeing outsized gains. So Steve, how are you celebrating this very special day?
- [30:55]
Steve Grasso
So I do own Ion Q Q and I do own inflection and all of them have different strategies. I don't think you have to focus on it because it's really deep in the woods. You can go down rabbit hole on this. But what I think you have to do is look at these. The prism of this is what I was back in 2018 and then in 2022 chat GPT came on the scene. So I think we're at the moment where we're close to the chat GPT moment for Quantum. Maybe a couple of years out, out. But I think the market is going to price these things in a lot sooner than we would think. So I think you have to be along some of them, not a lot but some of them. And if you want to play it with IBM, the original on AI, the original on Quantum, you could do it that way or you could do it this way. I chose to do it the riskier, deeper end of the pool.
- [31:43]
Melissa Lee
Are you celebrating world Quantum?
- [31:45]
Guy Adami
Who is.
- [31:45]
Tim Seymour
Where's your pocket protector?
- [31:47]
Guy Adami
Pardon me?
- [31:47]
Steve Grasso
Your pocket protector doesn't even have a
- [31:49]
Guy Adami
pocket
- [31:51]
Tim Seymour
on your protection.
- [31:52]
Guy Adami
It's Plank as you know with a C and a K as opposed to Doug Plank and Gary Fencick who both used to watch the show or your
- [31:58]
Tim Seymour
favorite yoga position, Gary Fence the Plank.
- [32:01]
Guy Adami
Now say, let me say this quickly, I'm with Steve on the IBM front. It's traded off significantly since its all time high that you get at least IBM core and you get the Quantum sort of tail. So IBM is the way to play it.
- [32:12]
Melissa Lee
All right. Meantime we do want to point out Bitcoin crossing the 76,000 level at its highs today, highest since early February. Crypto related names Robinhood, Coinbase Riot Strategy also getting a lift as investors seem to embrace a risk on sentiment. Is this just for now?
- [32:28]
Tim Seymour
No, I don't think so. I think as someone that has not been a card carrying Hodler a lot of my career, I think bitcoin is going back to all time highs. I don't know when I think Coinbase and I believe the platform, I mean base and I also mean just other elements of the platform. Is going to ride with that at some point. I'm long Coinbase, I think Robinhood, which I'm not long is is very interesting in terms of their demographic and in terms of the growth and the asset base of the folks that don't have as many assets that they can grow into. So I think you're selectively buying a few of these and you can still buy them. They haven't moved so much.
- [33:05]
Dan Nathan
Yeah, Robinhood, I think it was Bernstein. I was out this morning. They're saying it was like an asymmetric setup like to the upside. And you know, they're looking at, you know, growth of event contracts, you know, options has obviously been a big thing. And then the growth again, if it comes back, if Tim saying it's going to all time highs, that would be the.
- [33:21]
Tim Seymour
At some point.
- [33:21]
Dan Nathan
Yeah. No, I mean of course, you know, that's what they're focused on and those have been big drivers. Throw in the event contract stuff, it's probably hard to quantify. I think they were saying trillion dollar market by 2030.
- [33:33]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, what a top bank analyst makes of this morning's results. And a warning flag from Japan, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon the increasingly complex economic risks he's worried about when FAST Money returns. Welcome back to FAST money. Stocks keeping yesterday's momentum as investors await developments out of the Middle east and the US Blockade or the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow jumping more than 300 points. The S and P climbing to within a half a percent of an intraday record record. And the Nasdaq leading today's charge up nearly 2%, notching a tenth straight day of gains, its longest streak since November of 2021. Shares of Novo Nordisk climbing 3 and a half percent today. The pharma company partnering with OpenAI to bring artificial intelligence to the drug discovery space. Novo saying the partnership will help analyze complex data sets, identify promising new drugs and reduce the time it takes for a medicine to move from research to patient use. Shares still down nearly 23% this year year. And Amazon buying satellite telecommunications company Global star for about $11.6 billion. It's a move to build out its satellite Internet business as advised to compete with Space X. Amazon also agreeing with Apple to provide satellite connectivity for current and future iPhones and watches. And Nike jumping after hours after an SEC filing showed CEO Elliot Hill and Apple CEO Tim Cook, a member of Nike's board, bought shares of the company. So insider buying.
- [35:00]
Tim Seymour
Tim, I actually bought some Nike shares today and not because I think there's Anything that great going on, but it's partially averaging down. But I want to apologize for him. I think I said some kind of offensive about Guy and a pocket protector and the last block. So. Guy, I'm sorry.
- [35:13]
Guy Adami
Why don't you say it to the audience?
- [35:16]
Melissa Lee
What is wrong with the pocket protector? You have a pen. You don't want it to leak into your shirt.
- [35:19]
Tim Seymour
It's a sign of being pockets anymore. Extra geek.
- [35:22]
Guy Adami
He was saying. I was like a Poindex. Remember? Like in the Van Halen video. Hot for Teacher. That's what he was saying. Stuff like that. Yeah.
- [35:29]
Melissa Lee
Wrong with that either.
- [35:29]
Guy Adami
No, there's. I was a geek growing. I don't.
- [35:32]
Melissa Lee
I was. Me too.
- [35:34]
Guy Adami
And I'm fine with it.
- [35:35]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [35:36]
Jeff Richards
Hot teacher video.
- [35:37]
Melissa Lee
Anyway, interesting. Let's move on, shall we? BlackRock and Citigroup rallying after reporting earnings that beat street estimates this morning. Citi shares hitting their highest level since 2008. But J.P. morgan and Wells Fargo shares closed lower. J.P. morgan topping expectations. But CEO Jamie Dimon flagged increasingly complex economic risks. Let's bring in Gerard Cassidy, Global financials research co head at RBC Capital Markets. Gerard, great to see you.
- [36:02]
Jeff Richards
Thank you.
- [36:02]
Melissa (Guest Host)
Melissa, Great to see you.
- [36:04]
Melissa Lee
Was this just typical Jamie Dimon being conservative?
- [36:08]
Melissa (Guest Host)
I think it was, Melissa, because he oftentimes gives us a more conservative view of the global outlook. Of course, we all know about the geopolitical risk interests in the Middle east right now, and that's very understandable for him to say that. But I think when you get down to their numbers, JP Morgan's numbers were quite strong in the quarter, as were some of the other banks who reported today as well.
- [36:30]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, Citi seemed like the real standout here. I mean, Jane Fraser, I mean, just a stellar quarter in terms of what she has done and what there's still left to do. How much is there left in the
- [36:41]
Melissa (Guest Host)
stock run is a really good question, Melissa, because it was a really landmark quarter for the city. They had record quarterly revenues. Their markets business, I believe, you know, at over $7 billion in revenue was the best quarter ever. So there's been a number of things that went right for them, deservedly so. But to your point, Jane Frazier has done a very good job in turning this company around and there's still room to run. Of course, the big divestiture that's still to come is the Mexican business. But now after that, it's going to be all about growth and obviously they'll be focused that focus on that on their investor day, which is in early May.
- [37:24]
Tim Seymour
Hey, it's Tim. So I guess we don't want to hear Citi talking about buying regional banks and some of the things that were out there. I don't have any views, but I actually prefer to ask you about rerating for the sector. I know we've rerated it, but to me it's all about at least what multiple you're praying, paying on price to tangible book at this point, less about P E. And I don't know why banks shouldn't be trading two times the multiple. And I mean, you know, so in other words, if the average price to book was one and a half three years ago for the entire Money center bank group, why shouldn't they be trading closer to three? I mean, they're more profitable, they've never been run better is going to make them leaner and meaner. Sorry, it's a long question and I'm leading the witness.
- [38:06]
Melissa (Guest Host)
No, that's fine. I think you're onto something, Tim. I'm with you. The structural profitability for the group is better. And the one area that I think which you didn't mention, which is just as important, is the regulatory change. And therefore because of the lower capital requirements, many of the banks will have, not so much JP Morgan, as Jamie Dimon pointed out on the call today. But most of the banks are expecting to see lower capital levels, which means structurally you'll see higher profitability. You tie in what you said about AI and the benefits of that, you're certainly going to see, I think, an improvement in valuations. But we have to remember these are cyclical stocks. These stocks do get hit hard in a recession because of credit. But right now I'm with you. I think there could be some more further expansion in valuations because of the increased profitability.
- [39:01]
Guy Adami
Gerard's got ESPN because I was going to ask him if banks are still slick cyclical and you just said that they were. Where are they in the cycle, in your opinion?
- [39:10]
Melissa (Guest Host)
Yeah, Guy, it's. It is the question. And I would say that we're probably using the baseball vernacular, we're probably in the middle innings right now and it's really going to come down to what happens to the US economy. Economy based upon this conflict in the Middle east. And if we can get through this conflict without too much damage to inflation, meaning inflation moving much higher, then I think you're going to see the strength of the US economy shine in the second half driven by the data center build out in this country. As you guys know how strong that is. And that leads into a stronger 2027. So I would say we're in middle innings right now. Guys.
- [39:50]
Melissa Lee
Gerard, great to see you. Thank you.
- [39:52]
Melissa (Guest Host)
Thank you everyone.
- [39:53]
Melissa Lee
Gerard Cassidy of rbc. What you're thinking of bank Steve.
- [39:57]
Steve Grasso
Yes. So the obvious is JP Morgan, best in class, bank of America, probably best risk. Wells Fargo still is a turnaround story which is still unbelievable. Everyone's sort of behind Citi and guy's been right to be behind Citi. But if you look at long term charts on these, all of them had made new all time highs. Citi is the only one one bank of America is right around that level. But Citi is still off dramatically and I mean by 80% because they deleted the reverse split.
- [40:27]
Tim Seymour
It's apples and oranges. I mean the stock was blown up.
- [40:29]
Steve Grasso
That's the point. I'm saying that that all the rest really have performed and now it's a near term performance. And how long can Citi do that
- [40:36]
Dan Nathan
I have such a problem with and Gerard wasn't making the strong case but that if the economic growth, growth is coming from the data center build and we know that that's kind of like pushing out a lot of the consumer growth. Right. So if data center builds are pushing up cost of energy, right. Which it is happening and it just like these guys can't build these things fast enough. They are energy constrained. And then you think about a consumer that okay, this is also leading to unemployment. Right. So there's lots of pressures going on not to mention what's going on with the straight of her moves. And you know there's going to be disruption, disruption for a while here. So I think at some point that's kind of a double edged sword the growth that we're getting from data centers.
- [41:14]
Melissa Lee
All right. And we should note Leslie Picker has a big interview tomorrow with the bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan after its results cross the wires. That is tomorrow squawk on the street 10:15am Eastern time. Coming up, Wall street kicking the tires and some automakers. The names they see speeding ahead and whether the stocks can accelerate after a rough run so far this year. Fast Money's back into. Welcome back to Fast Money. Auto stocks revving up after a few bullish notes this morning. Deutsche bank upgrading GM to buy after its recent pullback. Saying it's on the cusp of a multi year rerating ubs meantime upping forward to buy and Tesla to a neutral. So what do we make of these move you like gm?
- [41:57]
Tim Seymour
I love gm. I've loved GM for a Long time and I think the market again is just starting to appreciate. It took kind of putting the EV business in, into the rearview mirror and a reality about whether that was ever going to be profitable or not to understand that their internal combustion engine business or hybrids are interesting but that the company's never been run better. It's extremely cheap. It's endured a lot of bad macro. Obviously tariffs weren't good a year ago, you know.
- [42:26]
Steve Grasso
Yeah. And I think obviously they sell their biggest selling cars are the SUVs and the pickup trucks. So if you look at Ford, I would go first for gm, second would be Ford. And I do still own Tesla. Very small. But Tesla is not a car company anymore. To me it's a robotics, it's autonomous. Is a whole bunch of other things that are thrown in there. But I do like both GM and Ford.
- [42:46]
Melissa Lee
We don't really talk Tesla that much anymore.
- [42:47]
Guy Adami
No, we don't. You know, I know it's. I'm okay with that.
- [42:50]
Melissa Lee
Yeah.
- [42:50]
Guy Adami
And you know what else we don't talk about all that much? Toyota Motors. That comes out tm Melissa Lee. And you want a good looking chart, look at a 40 year chart of Toyota Motors.
- [42:58]
Unknown Advertiser Voice 2
40?
- [43:01]
Guy Adami
What, did I stutter?
- [43:03]
Jeff Richards
Did I?
- [43:03]
Melissa Lee
Yes, 40. It's a very 40 year chart.
- [43:09]
Tim Seymour
Don't tell me to look at a 40 year chart.
- [43:11]
Guy Adami
Matter of fact, what is a figure
- [43:13]
Dan Nathan
doing as a log chart though?
- [43:15]
Melissa Lee
20.
- [43:15]
Guy Adami
We can go 20 upper right. I mean it's just pulled back off its all time high.
- [43:22]
Melissa Lee
Pull out an almanac or something.
- [43:24]
Guy Adami
I like a good almond but I
- [43:25]
Tim Seymour
might have heard you wrong.
- [43:26]
Guy Adami
No, you heard me right.
- [43:27]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, shares of Netflix hitting the highest levels of the year where traders see in store with earnings just two days away. And why Wall street is tuning in more fast money into. Fast money. Netflix shares jumping almost 3% today after Moffitt Nathanson and Keybanc bank both raised their price targets on the streaming giant. The stock is now trading at its highs of the year and has gained more than 28% since dropping out of the bidding war against Paramount. Skydance for Warner brothers. Netflix reports Q1 earnings Thursday after the bell. Certainly a lot of questions I'm sure about its pricing tier. Also whether or not the price increases that we've all seen under Netflix bills, if that was incorporated in guidance that
- [44:15]
Guy Adami
they gave never thought Netflix was going down to 70 wherever it got down to to. So that was wrong. But I did think once this whole Paramount Warner Brothers thing got sorted out, Netflix would rally. That's seemingly right. They report this Thursday. I think you got to be long the name into the, into the print and after the print. I think they can surprise people and I don't think valuation is awful here for Netflix. So I like the name at these levels.
- [44:38]
Melissa Lee
Do you think they talk about an M and a strategy or do you think they say no, we're going to use that money and reinvest and what do you like better shareholder?
- [44:45]
Tim Seymour
I think they're going to talk about outlook in terms of content and things that will be drivers like special events like possibly sports, some of these live type streaming events and also just the difference in the tiers and how profitable the pay for tier is. So I think the valuation is still your biggest enemy here but the chart is your friend. Let's get back up through this 200 day then. I think she can run.
- [45:10]
Steve Grasso
Yeah. They should never utter the words M and A. This year at least this was, that was the reason. That was the death knell for them. They have to really push behind doing what their bread and butter was. But if you look at Disney, if you look at they own the space. Disney had a second round of layoffs or the first round for the new CEO. I do like the chart on Roku. Sort of a different angle to this but Netflix is still the king of content.
- [45:34]
Dan Nathan
I would not be long this thing. I just feel like that they were having problems in a whole host of different, different kind of metrics before they made that bid for Warner. And when you think about why did they make that bid for Warner to begin with, they're not giving us subscriber growth. I know there's a lot of stuff that people want to hear. You guys just mentioned the tiers and advertising and all that sort of stuff. I just think it's kind of run pretty far without a whole heck of a lot of clarity about why it started to sell off last summer.
- [46:00]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trades. Time for the final trade. Tim.
- [46:16]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. If you look at a 50 year chart of Citizen, you're a buyer, so am I. Steve.
- [46:23]
Steve Grasso
Inflection. They are on Nvidia's quantum stack and Nvidia is a paying customer. Inflection.
- [46:28]
Melissa Lee
Dan. Yeah.
- [46:29]
Dan Nathan
Intel's 50% rally over the last last month, it's got it back to its 30 year highs. If you want to check out the chart there, I'm not buying into this, into earnings. You've got tariff, you got Island Fab. It's like discount all that stuff.
- [46:41]
Melissa Lee
Guy.
- [46:42]
Guy Adami
I just put a 40 year chart of the Toyota motors on the Twitter. If you want to see it Tim and everybody does so Toyota Motors I got to go dance with the girl you brought to the prom.
- [46:52]
Melissa Lee
You have to take a picture of like a partial parchment. Yeah micro clean fan Money Source now
- [46:59]
Disclaimer Voice
all opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer tabs was built
- [47:32]
Unknown Advertiser Voice 3
for finance teams managing complex B2B revenue. If your month end still depends on spreadsheets, manual billing adjustments or disconnected tools, you are not alone. Tabs automates billing, revenue recognition and collections in one AI powered platform built for accuracy and control so finance can spend less time reconciling revenue and more time driving the business forward. Visit tabs.com to learn more.