← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Big Tech Earnings On Deck… And Charter’s Post-Results Slide 7/25/25
00:43:13
Looking forward to a packed slate next week, with Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft earnings on deck and a looming Fed decision. Plus, details on the Synovus-Pinnacle merger and a top analyst’s take on Charter’s post-earnings plunge. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:01]
Melissa Lee
Fidelity Trading Dashboard brings live data, news and charts into one screen because better trading starts with finding what you need fast. Available for free@fidelity.com trading dashboard. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC Member NYSE SIPC Introducing the new Dell AI PC powered by the Intel Core Ultra processor. It helps do your busy work for you so you can fast forward through editing images, designing presentations, generating code, debugging code, summarizing meeting notes, finding files, managing your schedule, responding to Jim's long emails, leaving all the time in the world for the things you actually want to do. No offense, Jim. Get a new Dell AI PC starting at 699.99@dell.com AI PC how those ahead?
- [00:46]
Karen Feiderman
Stay ahead.
- [00:50]
Tim Seymour
Live from the NASDAQ marketsite in the heart of New York City's Times Square, this is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight, an $11 trillion plus week of earnings. Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Metta headlining next week's results. Will the numbers power markets even higher highs? We'll debate that and unchartered territory. The cable company stock seeing its worst day on record. What its latest results say about the state of the industry. Is there hope for a comeback in the name +intel on the outs after its latest earnings report. Luxury leaders with the pops in LVMH and Estee Lauder say about the strength of the high end consumer and the adjacent names that could benefit from big tech's capex boom. I'm Melissa Lee come to you live from studio via the Nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Karen Feiderman, Courtney Garcia, Tim Seymour and Carter Braxton Wirth Markets setting new records to end the week. The S and P and Nasdaq both closing at all time highs again today while the net Dow ended the session just a quarter percent from its own record. The action comes ahead of a big week for tech earnings for the six biggest companies in the S and P on the clock. Microsoft and Metta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon a day later. But those aren't the only market moving events on the calendar. We'll also get a Fed decision Wednesday, jobs report on Friday as well as President Trump's trade deadline. So will all of next week's events help stocks keep their records rolling? Are we in for a reckoning? All right. That's a little dramatic. You know what I mean though, Karen?
- [02:10]
Courtney Garcia
Yes.
- [02:11]
Tim Seymour
Set up. Yes, necessarily. Great.
- [02:13]
Courtney Garcia
No, I don't love the setup going in. Right. So you have this levitation into earnings season for the Mag 7. So you had one, we had Alphabet that was good. We saw that next week we're going to get a whole lot more. I don't love the setup going in although I am heavily long the space. I just feel like this has been such a big run. The Vix broke 15 today. I actually put on some market hedges. I'm always long but I just feel like this has been, you know, too far, too fast. And so the bar is really high now and I think we could see very good numbers. But are they priced in already? Maybe.
- [02:51]
Carter Braxton Wirth
And especially when you're looking at after those lows in April. The MAG7 collectively has surged over 40% since then and you've really seen a lot of the money is going into that trade right now. So I think you hit the nail on the head. It's just a really high bar going in and I don't think it means the trade is over. But I think you really need to see that the capex that all these companies are spending right now is in fact justified. And I think we want to see that not only in the earnings but especially in the guidance moving forward is when are they actually going to start to monetize that? Because that's been the big question.
- [03:19]
Tim Seymour
And Tim, I don't know if you or we collectively have learned anything in terms of the price action or response to earnings. I mean if you take a look at Alphabets, you know, reaction the earnings are actually pretty good. I mean it sort of put to rest, at least for now that narrative the existential threat to search from AI and yet the stock only managed to hold on 1% of its gains on the day.
- [03:43]
Mandy Xu
Yeah, I don't, I don't think the response in Google the trading action was awful. In fact I think the price action at Google over the last month outperformed that of its Magic seven peers. After underperforming I think there's a couple of key levels on the stock. Remember to 10 is is the all time high. We still have a ways to there Maybe one wanted to see more. I think the that those that are bearish on Google are continuing to say I'm not sure they're going to win the battle of the AI search game. Meanwhile, I think Gemini 2.5 is part of why people should feel a lot better. We saw ad search was, you know, up 12% that beat all expectations and their core search business beat all expectations. On top of YouTube and Waymo. I like Google, I'm long Google. I wasn't disappointed by the price action. 80% of the s and P have beaten earnings earnings season with a bar that I think was also reasonably low and in many cases Google especially. But the comps have been are not terrible for a number of the companies that are reporting here. So you know the earnings season has been fine. We continue on the macro to get a little boost every time we do another trade deal and we, we see how stocks do this on the way down. They sell off on the same news market seems to be moving a little higher on each incremental deal. Obviously EU outside of China is the most important on a week when Japan was a big, a big deal.
- [05:04]
Tim Seymour
Carter, what are the charts look like at this point?
- [05:07]
Karen Feiderman
Right. Well to your earlier point and Cameron's making the market, I would use the word fall. We know that a valuation is a very poor timing tool. We also know it's hard to define. You'll see in any given company one analyst likes it, one doesn't. But the market is full by all accounts. In terms of this would be a mature intermediate advance from the April low to here we are essentially August 1st up some 30% with many stocks up 100. And so I guess the question is or the case could be made that whatever happens in the coming week with the big earnings, that's where you can put in an intermediate top. Let's say they're all good and we spike another 3 or 4% then we will be truly even more stretch and one can make the case for pulling in one's horns or let's say they're bad and the dip, correction, sell off, drop, decline, plunge, you pick your word. Whatever nomenclature starts next week. We are due for something normative after this big a move, a mature three, four month move. Is it 3%, is it 5, is it 9? But it's a time to be reducing exposure generally I should think.
- [06:10]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, and there's going to be so many reasons to reduce exposure next week with earnings. There's also the trade deal. President Trump just today saying that they have a 5050 chance of reaching a trade deal with the EU. I thought it was 5050 from the get go. But, but that is out there and that could be, that could actually be a catalyst to the upside should a be reached.
- [06:30]
Courtney Garcia
I think the market expects either a.
- [06:32]
Tim Seymour
Deal to be reached by the deadline or an extension.
- [06:34]
Courtney Garcia
An extension. And the latter I think with a high degree of certainty. Can I ask Carter a question?
- [06:39]
Tim Seymour
Of course, yes.
- [06:40]
Courtney Garcia
Okay. So Carter, I would you say that the setup is, is equally sort of full for both the S and P and The Nasdaq, Yes.
- [06:51]
Karen Feiderman
I mean so. Well let's just look at a couple of things. We know that the S and P from its April low has now climbed back, recouped all the losses and is up what some 3.94% from its high before the tariff sell off. We know the Mid Cap index is still down some 6% from its prior high. The Russell 2000 down some 8. And the important interesting thing is that the equal weighted S and P today literally returned to the penny to its former high eight months ago. And so the question is, is it, is it equally, is it? Let me say this, is it, is it a 50 50? It's always a 5050 unless you have a really big play. But this is, is it up three, is it up five? I think you can get a high volatility week. But either way trade into it by reducing exposure.
- [07:39]
Tim Seymour
Would you reduce, would you start considering reducing exposure?
- [07:42]
Carter Braxton Wirth
We've actually been looking at this over the last couple of months because what we find is a lot of our clients just aren't willing to make those changes.
- [07:48]
Mandy Xu
Right?
- [07:49]
Carter Braxton Wirth
They're saying well Apple and Google and Microsoft, like those are the areas that have had the most growth. But what happens is they are becoming a bigger and bigger share of most of our clients portfolios. So it is a time to say I don't want to get out of this trade, I just want to take some profits and add to the things that are your less obvious plays, especially in the air space, which I will talk about that a little later and some of the adjacent plays there. There's plenty of areas in the market that I think are much better values right now and have bigger upside. So I still want to own it. But yes, taking profits is a great time to do so.
- [08:15]
Tim Seymour
And Tim, have you been sort of cycling out of some of the big gains, the winners, the big tech guys?
- [08:22]
Mandy Xu
I've been trying to sell upside calls and I think in mega cap tech that's a place where I can feel pretty comfortable selling some long term stuff and really get paid both for the time and the move that some of them have had going into this. Six months, 12 months out. I like that move I guess cycling into the breadth of both the market and the economy. I think Carter's point on the equal 8 is important. 1 Financials have outperformed the tech center stock tech sector for a while, industrials all year. But we are starting to see some broadening. We're going to have a nice conversation tonight about discretionary which is maybe finally getting some signs of overcoming what were headwinds both from China and I think just consumer spend. I think health care is a place you want to be. I think there are a handful of names that don't have to reach heavy into biotech, but get into both big tech, pharma and some parts of health care. So I like the setup here for markets, cycling. I think at some point it's really about understanding which companies are either too expensive relative to their history and making sure rebalancing and whatnot in terms of portfolio management is something we would always be doing.
- [09:26]
Tim Seymour
All right, we've got a big news alert here. Decision From Health Secretary RFK Jr. Angelica People got the latest on this? Angelica.
- [09:35]
Angelica Peebles
Email well, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that RFK Jr. Is planning to dismiss all 16 members of the U.S. preventive Service Task Force. That's the task force that decides which preventive services are covered by insurers. Those have to be covered. So things like cancer screenings. And so the Wall Street Journal is citing people familiar with the matter. This is not confirmed with hhs. We have reached out to see what more we can learn. But remember just earlier this month, that meeting that they were supposed to have was canceled and the Supreme Court basically affirmed that the secretary has control over over this committee. And so now apparently we are seeing a shakeup similar to the one that we saw with the vaccine panel. So more to come for sure there.
- [10:18]
Tim Seymour
Mel and then, Angelica, as I understand it, there's there's additional controversy over, for instance, the move to towards more animal testing, towards the use of organoids, for instance. That panel has fallen under, under some scrutiny as well. There's some criticism that he is appointing people who share the same viewpoint in terms of challenging mainstream science, mainstream medical consensus. And here we have sort of a similar situation going on with the panel being fired. Is there any pushback at all? Is there any grounds for pushback at this point?
- [10:52]
Angelica Peebles
I'm sure there will be. I mean, according to this report, apparently the reason for dismissing these members is that they are, quote, too woke. And so surely you should anticipate that we will see some changes potentially to those covered services that insurers have to cover. And so as those decisions start to play out, we've already seen it with the vaccine advisory committee, for example, remember, they decided to vote against the use of a preservative called thimerosal for some flu vaccines. Really not a consequential decision in terms of just the impact because it's used in so few of the flu vaccines but there was a lot of controversy over just the fact that they were voting on it at all. Because it seems seen as settled science. It's seen as an issue that is near and dear to the hearts of anti vaxxers. And so we are sure to see more of these debates in the months to come.
- [11:42]
Tim Seymour
All right, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. Tim, I'm going to go back to you because you're just talking about, you know, positions in, you know, pharmaceutical companies. And here we are, we've got, you know, an fda, excuse me, not fda, but an FDA and HHS basically turning things terms of approvals and challenging science that already has been widely accepted.
- [12:08]
Mandy Xu
Yeah, get ready for some sarcasm. Cancer screenings are crazy, right? So I don't know, I do think we've priced a lot of bad news into especially pharma where we know all about exclusivity, patent cliffs where we know all about certain dynamics around where there's competitive landscape with a handful of the leaders the healthcare sector. So more acutely whether it's unh, which is its own story, but some of the hospitals and the other providers I think have a lot of open questions. I think as a group though, you have a place where one, we started to see the charts give you some bottoming and two, you don't have to be attached to the most uncertain parts of this. I think there are tried and true companies that are operating both in consumer products, the OTC as well as the pharma space in health care.
- [12:58]
Tim Seymour
All right, meantime back to the broader markets. The Vix volatility index falling below 15 for the first time since February. For more, let's bring in Mandy Xu, head of Derivatives Market Intelligence for CBO Global Markets. Mandy, it's always great to see you.
- [13:10]
Walter Pisek
Great to be here.
- [13:11]
Tim Seymour
It's not just the vix. I mean volatility across asset classes, bond volatility is also very low. What does this tell you?
- [13:17]
Walter Pisek
Yeah, to me I think it's a sign that what we're seeing, the markets is very much fundamentally driven. Right. The fact that equities keep making new all time highs and volatility is falling across all asset classes is a sign that economic data continues to come in better than expected and earnings are holding up much better than expected as well. So I think to me that that's reassuring because there's a lot of headlines around kind of complacency and frothiness in the market. Certainly I think there are corners in the market that are very frothy. But ultimately I think this rally and the fact that the low volatility that we're seeing is really across the board, across asset classes, tell me it's really based on strong macro fundamentals.
- [13:54]
Tim Seymour
It's interesting that you can come and say that, you know, it's, it's confirmation of the good news story about the economy when so many people are saying no, it's complacency and we're in for a giant pullback.
- [14:05]
Walter Pisek
So I would say if only equity volatility was low, is only the VIX is low and bond market and other asset class volatilities are high. Certainly I would say there's something going on. The other thing I would caution though is just a lot of time people look at the level of the VIX and say, well, if it's low, it must be completely complacency. And the way that we actually evaluate it is against levels of realized volatility in the market. And Vix F14 may be low, but the realized volatility market right now we're talking about 6, right, 6%. That's at a one year low. So actually the spread, the difference, what we call the volatility risk premium or how much additional risk premium that option traders are pricing in for the forward outlook, that's actually toward a one year high. So that's telling you that really why volatility so low is because market continues to grind higher. And then actually in the forward outlook options traders actually pricing in some risk premium.
- [14:55]
Courtney Garcia
So what would happen if the Fed were to cut? What do you think would happen to the VIX and therefore the markets are the other way around? Ask the question, I guess.
- [15:03]
Walter Pisek
Yeah, certainly. I think any question about the Fed rate cut really comes down to why are they cutting. Right. So a lot of times people think reflexively rate cuts are good for equities. And if you look at it historically, that's not always the case. If the Fed is cutting because data is coming of economic data is coming much worse than expected, then you often get situations where Fed is cutting and stocks are selling off. But all that said, I think right now, if the Fed were to cut or probably be because of the inflation outlook and inflation coming in much tamer than expected, in which case I actually think that could be another positive catalyst for the rally.
- [15:34]
Carter Braxton Wirth
Now we also have a tariff deadline which is coming, right? And I think this has happened in the past, it just keeps getting pushed. So at this point volatility is low because every saying, well, it's either going to, there's going to be deals made or it's going to get pushed again, I think, is what the volatility index is telling us, if I'm correct.
- [15:47]
Walter Pisek
Yes, it's interesting, actually. So I would say coming into the July 9, the previous two deadlines, the April 2 Liberation Day and the July 9 deadlines, there was really nothing being priced in the options market in terms of risk premium for that particular event. Really kind of telling you that people really didn't take it seriously this time around. Heading into the August 1 deadline next week, we're actually seeing a little bit of a kink in the volatility term structure, which is another way of saying an excess bump in volatility for options that are expiring August 1st. Now, you could say that's really a sign of anxiety around tariffs, but actually think it's because it's also happening the same day as nonfarm payrolls and it's really the macroeconomic outlook that is driving that, that premium. But certainly I think the market is telling you you expect a little bit additional volatility next Friday.
- [16:33]
Tim Seymour
So just with the strategist hat on, you would expect this market rally to continue.
- [16:38]
Walter Pisek
So I would say, you know, for the past couple of weeks we've been saying the pain trade is actually to the upside, but I do think there's been enough capitulation at this point and enough people kind of throwing the towel on hedges. We've definitely seen that in the options market. That I would say at this point, the pain trade is probably to the downside, but it all, it all depends obviously on what happens with trade, what happens with the data, what happens at the Fed meeting. So lots going on.
- [17:00]
Tim Seymour
All right, Mandy, thank you so much. Great to see you. Mandy Shoe, CBO Carter, I'll go back to you and I know that you know, just, just the lines that you look at, but when it comes to the argument that volatility is low across assets, that seems very interesting in terms of a signal that, that, you know, where we are in the markets is confirmed by low volatility.
- [17:25]
Karen Feiderman
Right. Well, if you think about it, volatility is lowest when you're in a persistent downtrend. There's no volatility just going down and down or to persistent uptrend, which is the current circumstance. Volatility spikes around transition periods. This is elemental. Right. So volume is very high. The financial crisis low in 08 09. Volume is very high in June, July of 2000. The.compeak as we were coming off now, where the VIX is now in relation to Vix goes back to about 1990 and if you look at the sort of average level going back that far, it's around 17%. We're not that so far below the average in all the data. Either way, VIX is not a timing tool. And remember, it's a third derivative. First you have the stocks themselves. VIX is based on options, which are a second derivative. And then there's VIX which is the third. This is not something you can trade the vix, but it is not a timing tool for buying and selling or determining overbought or oversold conditions in the market.
- [18:33]
Tim Seymour
Well, it is good that it is low so you can hedge your positions in a cost effective manner.
- [18:38]
Carter Braxton Wirth
Yeah, and that's why I would say, I mean coming into next week, I think the question is what could actually spark that volatility?
- [18:43]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [18:43]
Carter Braxton Wirth
So I think we need to see good earnings, especially from all the big tech companies. We need to either see deals getting made or deadline passing. But again, at some point, I mean, do you have to have a deadline? I don't know. I think that's the question which you know is not getting price in at this point. But if everything goes to plan, if you keep getting earnings that are beating, if you keep getting positive economic data which we've been having, you'll probably still have this low volatility for a while.
- [19:05]
Tim Seymour
In terms of the earnings specifically, it's a big roster.
- [19:08]
Courtney Garcia
Yes.
- [19:09]
Tim Seymour
Which are you looking at most closely?
- [19:10]
Courtney Garcia
Well, meta is my biggest position, so definitely meta and the promise of AI. Right. If they can, we're going to hear what their spend is. I'm a little concerned that the spend might be even higher. He's been very aggressive talking about how much they're going to spend and with the number we saw from Alphabet, I'm a little concerned about that. It's good for Nvidia, but that would be my number one to look at.
- [19:30]
Tim Seymour
All right. Meantime, intel shares sharply lower after yesterday's earnings report. While the semi company beat revenue expectations, it did give weak guidance for the current quarter. The new CEO also announced big cuts to chip factory construction. The stock initially was higher after report but closed down today. Eight and a half percent. Intel also telling CNBC today it plans to set up its networking communications business as a standalone company. So down eight and a half percent. Tim and I think you summed it up pretty well on the back of the call yesterday. You know, what does intel want to be because you know, the fab, the sort of the national Foundry narrative, maybe that's not going to happen at this point with Lip Bhutan?
- [20:08]
Mandy Xu
Well, it's not going to happen if you keep cutting capex and you keep cutting resources and you don't have access to capital, which I think they have access to capital. I think they have access to partnerships. They certainly should have Washington support in some capacity where it's, you know, make America Semiconductor again. So I just don't like hearing a strategy that's not there. I don't want an earnings call where all I hear about are cost cutting and we're going to really watch that next dollar spent. That's great. Except for the fact that we've heard about that. Actually. It makes me also more concerned about the balance sheet which has been under duress for some time. So. That's right. Foundry fob chips. Where are we? Where are we with their core business and even gpu and where amd this started where AMD was eating their lunch about five years ago and it's led to a place where there's zero that intel has done on the AI chip side. In fact, we've learned over the last four or five quarters that they've scrapped that, turned it internal. Yes. It was just a disappointment. No one needs to hear that. We beat the top line with lower margin and we're cutting a lot of costs.
- [21:13]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. I mean they're even, you know, slowing down production of their Ohio chip factory. And I would imagine to the Trump administration that is a problem in terms of their agenda of making America the place where semiconductors will be manufactured. That.
- [21:27]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah, that whole story, like it's a little bit of the Charlie Brown thing. Right. But the football out there every time, well, we're going to do this and what we're going to do that and then every time pull it away and it is. I can't make a case for it. Not long.
- [21:40]
Carter Braxton Wirth
Yeah, I mean that's really, I think been the one thing that analysts have been saying, okay, if they can get this Foundry together, I mean that's really been their longest term upside. And now you see they're really not fully committed to it. And I think that's really the problem there is they're not two feet in and until they are, I don't think you're going to see an upside here.
- [21:54]
Tim Seymour
What snappy assessment are you going to make Carter, about the intent?
- [21:58]
Karen Feiderman
Well, I mean it has all the things one would consider undesirable. Its relative performance to the market is poor. Its relative performance to the tech sector is poor. Its relative performance to its brethren, its peers, to the SOX index is poor. It exhibits bearish price volume correlation. It dropped in gap just you know today what would be the case for being long as I would so the simple I guess conclusion is the burden is on the bulls to make a case. The bear just points to the facts.
- [22:31]
Tim Seymour
Coming up regional wrangling why investors are running away from Synovus and Pinnacle Financial's potential tie up and why one trader is buying in and a cable crash charter hitting more than one year lows after dropping nearly 200,000 subscribers subscribers in Q2. We dig in on the eye popping numbers right after this.
- [22:55]
Melissa Lee
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- [24:28]
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- [25:02]
Tim Seymour
Welcome back to Past Money. Pinnacle Financial and Synovus both sinking today after the banks announced an $8.6 billion merger. The deal would create one of the largest regional banks in the Southeast with more than $115 billion in combined assets. Karen, you actually bought both stocks today.
- [25:19]
Courtney Garcia
I did. That's. We call nurse car business a Texas hedge. You buy one instead of shorting it. You buy them both. And I thought so this is. This is billed as a merger of equals. Historically, mergers of equals generally have problems. So that's one thing to keep in mind. But the thing that I think is most interesting here, the stocks reactions. Clearly the street was disappointed with this, but I think it makes both of them attractive. I think it makes Synovus particularly attractive because they would be owning only 48 and a half percent of the combined entity versus 51.5 for Pinnacle. That means there's a change of control. When you're in a change of control situation, you are basically for sale. So if there's anyone else that wants to take a look at Synovus, now is the time to do it. Also, I don't hate the merger on its merits. Right. I think there was some things to like. Interesting to me that the CEO of the acquirer will not be the CEO going forward. That's interesting. And so I think they talk about how accretive it could be. And I believe that two nicely growing banks, not every single multiple is great. But generally I think. All right, here's a possibility of a merger that could work. So I think there's a lot of ways to win. You have sort of a free call on them just getting back to where they were or the idea that one or both of them potentially could be a target. That would be kind of good. Surprising both. But. Or that the merger works against those sort of. Texas longs is a hedge in the car. I don't want to take a different bet. If the KRE generally goes down. I want to have some. Some hedge there. But I like this. I think it's an interesting risk reward and maybe if it closes also the combined entity could be.
- [27:00]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. RBC made the point on the deal that if they can actually achieve the accretion that they're forecasting, which is earnings growth of about 21% by 27, then that's a great deal. But there are a lot of obstacles and culture might be one of them. Tim, I know you own Preferreds in one of them.
- [27:18]
Mandy Xu
Yeah, I own Preferreds and Synovus and I actually think it's good for that. I think the whole story in terms of cap structure gets better and certainly we're a preferred set and they were a pretty juicy yield yesterday or today and I think they're. I think it's a better story. I'm less worried about culture and I would also say this is kre positive regional bank consolidation is something we've been expert expecting and one of the themes of the markets right now is that M and A is coming back. I think regional bank consolidation is fine. I think the growth areas of Tennessee, Georgia, this is where these banks have built up very strong franchises is an exciting place to be. So like Karen, I haven't well I haven't. I haven't made that that type of an investment today on the back of the headlines but I like the story and I actually am surprised by the market's movement. I think consolidation in regional banks is something to be buying for the most.
- [28:08]
Carter Braxton Wirth
Part and I think that's a story we've been talking about for a long time but it hasn't been coming to fruition. I think Trump came in office never said oh this would be great for mergers and acquisitions and then tariffs just had headlines. All of this became on the back burner. But you're starting to see some of this. So we saw this last week with the railroad space, you saw this in Union Pacific and it'll be interesting to see what actually is coming to fruition with these. But I think the idea that we're starting to see more deals come through and I do think that's going to be a good thing whether it's for the regional banking space which timber set up or even for your investment banking space which is who's doing these deals. I think you're going to start to see these and I think this is just the first inkling of that which is a good sign for the broader market in the M and A space.
- [28:44]
Tim Seymour
Carter, which area in banks do you like best?
- [28:48]
Karen Feiderman
Well so it's a tough space here. Let's just say this the brokers the big say Goldman and Morgan Stanley have shot the moon and so the question is so did JP Morgan and they're all I would say in that category like the market for full stretched not as a true there are some other broker dealers let's take a Raymond James for instance which hasn't has done as well and that's the kind of thing I think one can play for catch up. Or Schwab for instance, also been a laggard in trying to come to life. But, but the real question is, you know that if you look at the regional banks in their entirety, every single one that's listed as an index, they peaked right after Trump was elected the first time and their relative performance to the market has been going down ever since. And the carry itself right now is still below its 2022 high. It's a tough space. It's a tough business. And these are trading things, but not investments.
- [29:43]
Tim Seymour
All right, there's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [29:48]
Melissa Lee
We're digging in on the pick and shovel trade. The data center builders, power suppliers and other under the radar names going ballistic thanks to the AI boom plus a cable catastrophe. Charter's awful Q2 subscriber numbers sending shockwaves through the space. Is there anything that can revive the industry as viewers keep cutting the cord? You're watching Fast MONEY live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this.
- [30:23]
N/A
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- [30:53]
Melissa Lee
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- [31:02]
Mandy Xu
There's no time like now to start.
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Tim Seymour
Building your personal brand.
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Melissa Lee
Register now at CNBC. Make it.com personal brand.
- [31:11]
Tim Seymour
Welcome back to Fast Money. It's not just big tech benefiting from the boom in spending on artificial intelligence. Some AI adjacent stocks also stand to benefit. Electrical contracting company IES and H vacmaker Comfort Systems have seen their shares soar this year. But those aren't the only names to watch. Karen, you've got some picks. One is in your acronym.
- [31:30]
Courtney Garcia
Yeah. So United Rental had earnings yesterday. They were good. Not every single thing, but they were generally good. They talked about they raised their free cash flow estimates by a lot because of the one big beautiful bill. And the reaction to the earnings I thought was kind of high, you know, but then it continued again today and I think it's just this idea gaining momentum of wow, this depreciation of Capex in one year is actually quite an important benefit to companies that are very Capex heavy. And so there's a number of names, United Rentals, one of them, Eaton, things like that. There's tons of them that even are. Even if they're not specifically related to I, I know United Rentals in their specialty division, they do a lot of things that are related to building AI data centers. And so even though that isn't their end customer. And so I think we're just starting to really get a sense of how significant this element of the act may be.
- [32:22]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, but could you go through your other picks before we pass the ball? Eaton and Quanta.
- [32:26]
Courtney Garcia
Yes, Quanta Services. Oh, that really in the, you know, maintaining and building out the electricity grid. And so that's very important here. Having a huge run. What was at one time a rather sleepy company is now sort of, you know, caught up in the excitement of building data centers and Capex right together.
- [32:48]
Tim Seymour
And we've seen all of these sort of adjacent names really, you know, we talked about Bistra for a very long time. GE Vernova is another one that's, you know, benefiting. Courtney, would you recommend this sort of way of playing it or has that passed the opportunity? Opportunity?
- [33:03]
Carter Braxton Wirth
No, I think that's absolutely how you want to play. And I think the energy space is like a really obvious one that we've talked about in the past because there's just not enough to go around on the grid right now. And then all the infrastructure that goes along with that. I mean, this is a huge upbringing that needs to happen regardless and the spend is really just going to exacerbate that, I think when we get earnings next week. We have already seen these astronomical amounts of Capex that companies are putting into AI, but I think the question is, are they going to keep increasing that which we're seeing in clings? They are. Which is only going to further benefit this kind of, you know, your second tier. I spend and I think that's where you want to play it. Yes, some of that's already benefited. I don't think that trade is over and I think it's a better value.
- [33:37]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. Tim, you've been in some of the energy names related to the trade.
- [33:42]
Mandy Xu
I have. There's a lot left, I think. You know, for example, we're going to get Constellations reporting on on August 5th. I want to hear all about the, the construction backlog and where I think the demand is coming. So it's not just a power play, I think Deep Seek was a great opportunity, but it's still this is thematic and we're early on in this buildout.
- [34:01]
Tim Seymour
Coming up, charters, huge subscriber loss, sending the stock to its worst day ever. Why our next guest says the print is really as bad as it seems right after this.
- [34:14]
Melissa Lee
Missed a moment of fast. Catch us anytime on the go. Follow the Fast Money podcast. We're back right after this.
- [34:29]
Tim Seymour
Welcome back to fast money. Charter Communications sinking over 18% for the stock's worst day on record. The company reporting a steep drop in both Internet and video subscribers, sending shares to their lowest level in over a year. Other telecom stocks like T Mobile, cnbc, parent company Comcast, Altice and Liberty Broadband, all sharply lower in sympathy for more on Charter's path forward. Walter Pisek of Lightship Partners joins us now. Walter, great to have you with us.
- [34:54]
N/A
Thanks for having Melissa.
- [34:56]
Tim Seymour
Obviously people are not, not using the Internet. Where, where are they going? I mean, is this really a story of, of their competitors just gaining?
- [35:06]
N/A
Yeah, I mean, I think you had a big surge of Internet usage during COVID but then you had companies now starting to build, overbuilding fiber. Fiber is frankly just a better service, right. It's faster, you have more uplink speed in order to do things. And in addition, you had companies like T Mobile and Verizon that had all this excess spectrum and started selling, what Charter jokes, as cell phone Internet. They've been joking about this as cell phone Internet for years. But that cell phone Internet is eating away at their subscriber base at&T. Now this is like the next shoe to drop. You know, John Snacky at AT&T has long said, oh, we don't really want to get into the cell phone Internet game, preserve our spectrum. And now they have a little bit of a pivot. Right. They got money from the big beautiful bill, which they're going to invest more in fiber. Right. So come after with more fiber builds over the next couple of years and they're going to be more aggressive at selling mobile. You know, paired with this again, what Charter calls cell phone Internet, which is this mobile broadband things that Charter and Comcast told people for years would not have legs. And yet you have millions of subscribers, you know, accessing the Internet, you know, through this type of service.
- [36:20]
Tim Seymour
Right. So the, so the multi year agreement that Charter and Comcast announced earlier in the week, that service of T Mobile won't launch until 26. Do they have enough time? I mean, our investors going to be patient enough to see the fruits of that agreement?
- [36:35]
N/A
That is a Very limited agreement that, that deals with the business segment. Certainly that's a positive for Charter and Comcast. Also a positive for T Mobile. That doesn't move the ship or change the overall pattern here, which is, which is broadband. Now look, they've done stuff on the video side that, you know, people are applauding because they're not losing as many subs as they used to by basically allowing customers to get much cheaper, skinnier bundles that also include your streaming services. But that business is still a terrible business, right? The revenue is down 10% so that you're just swapping customers into lower, you know, lower priced, you know, products with low margins. And it doesn't seem to be having the benefit to broadband as everyone thinks it is. I mean, they've talked about lower churn. They don't, this is a metric they don't report, by the way. So they're saying there's less customers churning, we're adding more subs, but somehow their net additions are in decline. Like the math just isn't working. And I'm just not sure that just by offering someone cheaper video that this is somehow going to stop your cable customers from leaving and going to fiber or in some cases again, what they call cell phone Internet, which is, you know, wireless broadband.
- [37:52]
Mandy Xu
Hey, Walt, it's Tim. There's the two parts of what's going on in, in the cable and the essentially pulling the plug is that one. Obviously we're starting to see some M and A in the private equity space. Obviously the Paramount deal is a interesting look into some of the parts. Can you give a read into how you think the next shoe could fall within the sector or how you are viewing this whole dynamic of whether you want to get into the content or at least some of the conduits who might be good matches for each other here?
- [38:24]
N/A
Tim, that is spot on. And the end game here theoretically should be consolidation, vertical consolidation, where you're buying your connectivity services from one player. When we enter this year with Trump as president, I looked at Charter as a potential target and then Verizon decided to buy Frontier instead. Not necessarily the same size company, but a lot of overlap there. You had Mike Sievert, the CEO of T Mobile, you know, on their earnings call this week, throwing more and more cold water on the fact that they, you know, they're saying that they don't want to own, you know, charter or cable assets. And then you have like the last one, the big one that you could think of is Comcast buying Charter. But you know, given what the president has said about Comcast, you know, and the ownership that they have, it doesn't seem like that would be something that would be, let's say, easy to get through the regulatory process.
- [39:18]
Tim Seymour
Comcast is down 5% waltz today. It's been pretty rangebound for a couple of years. I mean, I think that's putting it generously. I'm just curious, does it look better once it spins off Versant, it's such.
- [39:32]
N/A
A small, no offense, but like such a small portion of their overall business, you know, even the media side of the business, I mean, I think it's going to be, it's going to be fine. In terms of, you know, the parks adding a positive data point, if they can reduce some of the losses at Peacock. These are all things that Rich Greenfield I think covers quite well. But look, at the end of the day, Comcast, like Charter, the core business, what generates the EBITDA and the free cash flow is that broadband business. And you know, Comcast has been a little slower at executing on some of the things like giving out free mobile lines, things that should help churn than, than, than Charter. That's why they traded a discount primarily. So I think if Comcast can execute on giving out free phone lines, you know, do a better job at holding on to broadband subs, maybe get some lower losses at Peacock, we'll see how the Parks do. You know, these are things that can help to at least close the gap in the valuation with Charter.
- [40:33]
Tim Seymour
Right, Walt. Thank you, Walt Pisa of like Shed Partners. Do you see value in any of these names, Courtney?
- [40:41]
Carter Braxton Wirth
I mean, it's tough right now because it's in a business that just continues to lose customers.
- [40:46]
Tim Seymour
Right.
- [40:46]
Carter Braxton Wirth
I mean, it just, it becomes a price war where they're just getting each other at lower prices and it's going to hurt their own margins. And I just don't know what that turn is going to be. And I think this is, you know, kind of funny, but my, my grandparents told me that they cut cable and they are just streaming. And I said, okay, if they're cutting cable, everyone's cutting cable. Like this is just happening across the board. And I just think there's really no end in sight here. So I just think with these companies, I would probably stay away. I don't really see the value at the moment.
- [41:12]
Tim Seymour
Coming up, the Chartmaster thinks the utilities trade is going to really light up the technicals that could power the sector to even more gains. Next, in a check in on the luxury trade as SA Lauder and LVMH both post gains. But are these names too rich for our traders blood? We'll find out. Welcome back to Best Money. We've got a news alert on Surrepta Therapeutics here. Sinking again after hours. Angelica Peoples got the details on this. Angelica.
- [41:44]
Angelica Peebles
Hey, Melissa. Well, the FDA is saying that it is investigating a case of an eight year old who died after receiving Sarepta's gene therapy elevidis. Now I do want to clarify that this appears to be the case that was reported in Brazil where a boy died. And Brazilian authorities said that they determined it was not directly caused by the gene therapy, that the person had influenza, the flu, and that that probably exasperated the condition, the liver toxicity that we're seeing there. And so at that time they decided that this was not directly connected and in their view there was no new safety signal. But the FDA is still saying that they are investigating this death. And so of course there's so much scrutiny on this gene therapy that every move, every notice we hear from the FDA carries tremendous weight.
- [42:32]
Tim Seymour
Melissa, there are two other deaths. There's one other. Correct. Directly linked to Alevdis. And then there's one of the man, the more recent death, the third death, which is a related therapy to Alevdis. And so this is, is this the second death? So they're only investigating one of the deaths.
- [42:50]
Angelica Peebles
No, this would be a different death. This is a new death that we're talking about in Brazil. But again it appears that this was related to the flu versus directly just the gene therapy. Of course the person did receive the gene therapy, but they also had the flu. And so Brazilian authorities saying that they do not see that as a direct cause. But again the FDA is saying that they are investigating the death of an 8 year old boy there.
- [43:14]
Tim Seymour
Okay, Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. Coming up, utilities a record this week. But the chartmaster still sees more room to run. He lays out the case next. Welcome back to Fast Money. The S&P 500's record run has been front and center. But the chartmaster is giving the green light for a sector that may be flying under the radar. Carter Wirth is here with his charts. Of course, it's been here all hour. He's had his charts all hour. But show them to us now. Carter.
- [43:46]
Karen Feiderman
Talk about utilities. Just now, just now making a new 52 week high. But let's start with this comparative chart, just to speak the importance of dividends. This is going back to the dot com peak. And you see of course the utilities in orange have lagged the market. The Markets essentially doubled the performance of the sector utilities. Look at the next chart just to set this up. This is now total return. The total return of the S&P 500 utility sector and the total return of The S&P 500 dividends reinvested is a dead even heat for 25 years. It just speaks the importance of yield as to the utilities here and now let's look. First of two charts. They're identical. If you look at the XLU again annotated this way and one might draw the lines differently, but again just a classic breakout and it's just beginning a second way to draw the lines and you'll see another formation that is generally bullish. So I like the space. 2.4% of the S and P all in. So a minor stuff, but not minor stuff. If one can make money, AEP would be a favorite.
- [44:51]
Tim Seymour
I'm always amazed at that. You know, basically for 25 years s and P and utilities are dead even we invest so much more exciting to.
- [45:01]
Courtney Garcia
Own S and P. It really is.
- [45:03]
Tim Seymour
You know, I'm long utilities.
- [45:04]
N/A
I don't know.
- [45:06]
Tim Seymour
Well, Tim, Tim is long some utilities. It must be very exciting for him.
- [45:11]
Mandy Xu
Well, it is exciting and I think Carter is probably also going to argue just on a risk adjusted basis in terms of volatility. I mean it's a, it's a, it's a better Sharpe ratio effectively for owning utilities the whole time. I think there is an element, element of that space of course has been exposed to what we've talked about tonight, which is data center, which is power grid build out Nextera, which has had some interesting corporate finance or capital markets dynamics over the last couple of years that have had certain parts of their valuation seemingly less understood than others. I mean, it's the largest renewables business in the world and I think you.
- [45:49]
N/A
Want to own it.
- [45:50]
Mandy Xu
I think you certainly want to own it for the next five years, let alone the next 25. So whenever Carter breaks out these long charts and blows people away, we shouldn't be surprised because this is exactly what happens.
- [46:01]
Tim Seymour
All right, up next, final trades.
- [46:11]
N/A
All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduardo.