CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary
Episode: Big Tech Earnings On Deck… And President Trump Signs GENIUS Act
Release Date: July 18, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Participants: Bono Eisen, Tim Seymour, Courtney Garcia, Mike Koh, Ben Emmons, Evgeny Gaivoy, Angelica Peebles, Kate Rogers

Introduction

In this episode of CNBC's "Fast Money," host Melissa Lee engages a panel of top traders and experts to dissect the latest developments in the financial markets. The primary focus revolves around upcoming Big Tech earnings, the impact of President Trump's signing of the GENIUS Act, fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, housing data, and significant movements in the financial sector.

Big Tech Earnings Season

Overview: The earnings season is heating up with major players like Alphabet (Google) and Tesla set to report their quarterly results. These reports are pivotal as they could set the tone for the broader market, which is currently trading near all-time highs.

Key Points:

• Alphabet (Google): Despite underperforming compared to other MAG7 stocks, Alphabet is poised for a potentially attractive earnings report due to eased tariff impacts and robust ad spending.
• Tesla: Facing mixed sentiments, Tesla's upcoming earnings will be scrutinized for delivery numbers and margin sustainability.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Seymour [03:07]: "Google is priced at least attractively even relative to itself given the backdrop of where people are always concerned about where multiples are coming in."
• Bono [05:28]: "I think this is about whether their incumbent search business has the legs necessary and whether they are setting up the transition into a kind of driven search."

Discussion Highlights:

• Positioning for Earnings: The panel discusses the varying expectations for Alphabet and Tesla, emphasizing the importance of Google’s cloud business and YouTube as bright spots.
• Capex and AI Investments: Concerns are raised about the capital expenditure directed towards AI and its future impact on margins and core business areas like search for Google.

Federal Reserve and the GENIUS Act

Overview: The episode delves into the recent signing of the GENIUS Act by President Trump and its implications for the Federal Reserve and broader economic policies.

Key Points:

• GENIUS Act: This landmark legislation aims to regulate stablecoins and outlines frameworks for cryptocurrency markets.
• Fed Dynamics: Tensions between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are highlighted, suggesting potential volatility in interest rate decisions.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Emmons [12:06]: "The probability for [rate cuts] is priced near zero. So you could get some tension here as all the scrutiny comes together."
• Melissa Lee [13:29]: "At what point does it matter if he actually fires him or not?"

Discussion Highlights:

• Impact on Small Businesses: Ben Emmons explains how rate cuts could benefit small businesses reliant on short-term variable rate debt, though economic strength may counteract these benefits.
• Political Influence: The conversation touches on the potential for political maneuvers to influence Fed decisions, impacting market stability.

Cryptocurrency Market Developments

Overview: The cryptocurrency sector experiences significant movements following the signing of the GENIUS Act, with major stablecoins and altcoins reacting to the new regulations.

Key Points:

• Regulatory Clarity: The GENIUS Act provides much-needed transparency and regulatory frameworks, potentially attracting institutional investors.
• Market Reaction: While Bitcoin remains the only major coin in the negative, others like XRP, Ether, and Solana see substantial gains.

Notable Quotes:

• Evgeny Gaivoy [35:28]: "Lack of clear regulation has been such a boon on the industry, honestly."
• Mike Koh [36:40]: "The GENIUS Act is going to be a net positive for the space overall."

Discussion Highlights:

• Institutional Adoption: Increased regulation is seen as a green light for institutional investors, providing the necessary safeguards for mainstream adoption.
• Divergence in Adoption: Evgeny Gaivoy points out the split between institutional preferences for Bitcoin and Ethereum versus retail interests in higher-beta coins and meme coins.

Housing Market Insights

Overview: Recent housing data presents a mixed picture with rising housing starts in June but a decline in single-family home construction, impacting homebuilder stocks.

Key Points:

• Housing Starts: Overall housing starts rose by 4.6% in June, but single-family home construction fell to an 11-month low.
• Affordability Issues: High median home prices and rising mortgage rates are major headwinds affecting affordability and homebuilder profitability.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Koh [18:21]: "Median home prices are the highest we've seen in this country, and that's going to continue to be a headwind."
• Courtney Garcia [19:29]: "Longer term, there's a real supply constraint with anywhere from 4 to 7 million shortage of houses out there."

Discussion Highlights:

• Investment Opportunities: The panel discusses the potential for long-term trades in homebuilder stocks despite short-term pressures due to supply constraints.
• Options Strategies: Bono suggests options trades such as selling puts or put spreads on homebuilder ETFs to capitalize on long-term growth.

Financial Sector Movements

Overview: Significant movements in the financial sector, particularly with American Express, Charles Schwab, and Netflix, are analyzed for their implications on the market and consumer behavior.

Key Points:

• American Express (Amex): Despite beating earnings estimates and reporting a 7% increase in card spending, Amex shares fell due to weaker travel spending and increased credit loss provisions.
• Charles Schwab: Rose nearly 3% after beating estimates, aided by optimistic trading surges amidst tariff volatility.
• Netflix: Dropped 5% despite better-than-expected future earnings, with concerns over valuation pressures.

Notable Quotes:

• Bono [25:00]: "In Amex's case, they clearly are appealing to a more well-heeled higher-income consumer."
• Mike Koh [26:14]: "The stock was about as high above the 150-day moving average as we've seen it in a long time."

Discussion Highlights:

• Consumer Behavior: Amex's performance signals a resilient higher-income consumer base, though rising credit provisions hint at underlying consumer debt issues.
• Valuation Concerns: Netflix's decline despite strong fundamentals highlights the market's sensitivity to valuation metrics and technical indicators.

Sarepta Therapeutics Crisis

Overview: Sarepta Therapeutics faces a severe crisis as its stock plummets nearly 36% amid reports of patient deaths linked to its gene therapy drug, leading to FDA intervention.

Key Points:

• Patient Safety Concerns: Reports of multiple patient deaths in clinical trials have sparked scrutiny and regulatory action.
• Company Response: Sarepta's delayed disclosure of these events has eroded investor trust and led to a sharp decline in stock price.

Notable Quotes:

• Bono [31:25]: "Credibility and transparency... [are] squarely have dropped the ball on both of those."
• Mike Koh [32:07]: "The stock is going to be more volatile just as a function of balance sheet leverage."

Discussion Highlights:

• Investor Trust: The lack of transparency from Sarepta's management has resulted in significant investor distrust, emphasizing the importance of disclosure in biopharma investments.
• Options Trading: The episode highlights skyrocketing put options activity, reflecting the market's negative sentiment toward Sarepta.

Cryptocurrency Regulation and Market Impact

Overview: The signing of the GENIUS Act marks a significant regulatory milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, potentially paving the way for mainstream adoption and influencing market dynamics.

Key Points:

• Stablecoin Regulation: The GENIUS Act provides a legal framework for stablecoins, enhancing their legitimacy and operational transparency.
• Market Implications: Enhanced regulation is expected to attract institutional investments, improve market stability, and potentially lead to higher valuations.

Notable Quotes:

• Evgeny Gaivoy [37:22]: "The Clarity Act has been very patiently waited by a lot of people in the industry."
• Courtney Garcia [40:21]: "This is going to bring it along there, and it's going to make it okay to invest in because it's a mainstream asset class."

Discussion Highlights:

• Institutional Confidence: Increased regulatory clarity is likely to boost institutional confidence, facilitating more substantial investments in the crypto space.
• Retail Investor Access: Enhanced regulations around stablecoins may also make cryptocurrency more accessible and less speculative for retail investors.

Restaurant Sector Earnings Preview

Overview: The restaurant industry is under the microscope as several major chains report earnings next week, amid rising costs and shifting consumer behaviors.

Key Points:

• Performance Variances: Companies like Domino’s, Papa John’s, and Wingstop continue to perform well, while others like Sweetgreen and Jack in the Box face challenges.
• Consumer Spending Shifts: Rising restaurant costs and stagnant grocery prices are influencing consumer dining habits, with a notable decrease in restaurant visit frequency.

Notable Quotes:

• Kate Rogers [41:37]: "Consumers showing some resistance in the sector as restaurant costs continue to outpace grocery costs."
• Tim Seymour [44:01]: "Where you have pricing power and higher cost base, the question is really where is the consumer today."

Discussion Highlights:

• Strategic Leadership Changes: Multiple executive changes across restaurant chains signal a shift towards new strategies focused on menu innovation and customer experience.
• Pricing Power Challenges: High costs and reduced consumer spending power are testing the pricing strategies of major restaurants, particularly in the fast-casual segment.

China Tech Sector Breakout

Overview: Chinese tech stocks, led by Alibaba, experience significant gains, marking their best week since February. The breakout is attributed to strong fundamentals and improving consumer sentiment in China.

Key Points:

• Alibaba's Surge: Alibaba's stock rises over 12%, driven by its leadership in cloud infrastructure and e-commerce.
• Market Fundamentals: The positive performance is underpinned by robust enterprise spending and the return of Chinese consumers to the market.

Notable Quotes:

• Tim Seymour [45:47]: "Alibaba has the best of breed, and I like the story on fundamentals, on valuation and I like the chart."
• Mike Koh [46:57]: "Alibaba is probably trading around 9 times next 12 months estimated adjusted EPS. So it's pretty cheap."

Discussion Highlights:

• Investment Opportunities: The panel highlights Alibaba's undervaluation and strong growth prospects, making it an attractive option for long-term investors.
• International Investment Trends: Bono notes the shift of capital from US to international funds, positioning Chinese tech as a strategic choice for diversification.

Conclusion and Final Trades

The episode wraps up with each panelist sharing their final trading thoughts:

• Mike Koh: Reiterates bullishness on Alibaba, recommending call spreads and risk reversals.
• Tim Seymour: Emphasizes the positive outlook on Big Tech like Google and the resilience of companies like American Express.
• Bono Eisen: Advises caution on volatile stocks like Tesla and Sarepta Therapeutics, suggesting protective strategies.

Final Quotes:

• Mike Koh [48:01]: "Continue to play BABA to the upside using call spreads, risk reversals."
• Bono Eisen [48:32]: "Extreme headline risk on the Tesla front makes it tough to allocate incremental dollars."

Key Takeaways

• Big Tech Earnings: The upcoming earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla are critical for market sentiment.
• Regulatory Impact: The GENIUS Act signifies a major regulatory milestone for cryptocurrencies, likely enhancing institutional and retail investor participation.
• Market Volatility: Events like Sarepta Therapeutics' crisis and the complex dynamics within the Fed highlight ongoing market volatility.
• Sector Performance: Distinct performances across sectors such as real estate, finance, and restaurants underscore the fragmented nature of the current market landscape.
• International Opportunities: Chinese tech stocks, particularly Alibaba, present compelling investment opportunities amidst global capital shifts.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed in this summary are based on the discussions from the podcast and do not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.