CNBC's "Fast Money" Podcast Summary

Episode: Big Tech On Deck, A Transport Warning… And Foreign Money At Risk
Release Date: April 28, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Location: Studio B at the NASDAQ, New York City's Times Square

1. Introduction and Overview

Hosted by Melissa Lee, the April 28, 2025 episode of CNBC's "Fast Money" delves into the pressing issues facing major sectors in the stock market. Key topics include the upcoming earnings reports of big tech giants, warnings from the transport sector, shifts in foreign investment, and the impact of US tariffs on Chinese retailers. The panel comprises Tim Seymour, Karen Fireman, Dan Nathan, and Rebecca Patterson, with insights from hedge fund manager Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management.

2. Mega Cap Tech Earnings Countdown

The episode kicks off with a countdown of over $10 trillion in market capitalization slated for reporting this week. Leading the charge are tech behemoths like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Metta, alongside significant players such as Qualcomm, Snap, Reddit, and Block.

• Melissa Lee [00:01]: "Big tech on deck. More than $10 trillion worth of market cap reporting this week... the tech titans quiet to start the week."

Despite pressure throughout the year, both Metta and Apple have achieved their fifth consecutive day of gains, contributing to the Dow and S&P's return to the green. However, the Nasdaq remains slightly down, raising questions about whether these earnings can revive major indices.

3. Expert Insights on the Tech Sector

Tim Seymour and Karen Fireman provide nuanced perspectives on the tech earnings landscape:

• Tim Seymour [01:18]: "Giving guidance in this environment at all... if the first quarter was bad, that's not going to be good."

• Karen Fireman [01:49]: "We've heard in the last few weeks... channel checks... it's not that simple... there could be some slowdown."

Dan Nathan and Dan Niles discuss the deceleration in cloud growth and investor reactions:

• Dan Nathan [03:00]: "Google quarter was not particularly that great... growth number was fine given that there's supply constrained."

• Dan Niles [05:26]: "Tech is at least a market weight in my mind because there's a decent probability... average into them at better levels for a longer term investor."

The panel agrees that while tech remains a strategic investment, short-term uncertainties—particularly around guidance and market reactions—pose challenges.

4. Trade Tariffs and Their Impact on Business

The conversation shifts to the impact of US tariffs on international trade, particularly affecting Chinese retailers and the logistics sector.

• Melissa Lee [08:42]: "We don't believe the guidance that they give us in terms of financial results... why should we believe them in terms of their CapEx guidance?"

• Karen Fireman [11:45]: "I'm saying that about the entire market... it's less than yesterday."

Dan Nathan introduces concerns from the Dallas Fed survey about manufacturing activity:

• Dan Nathan [06:30]: "Texas manufacturing activity weakened significantly... executives use the words chaos and insanity."

Craig Fuller, CEO of Freight Wave, underscores the imminent challenges:

• Craig Fuller [38:11]: "Potential 145% tariff... freight expected to drop off by 35% year over year."

These tariffs are expected to ripple through the economy, leading to inventory shortages and mass layoffs in the logistics industry.

5. Pharma Sector Outlook

HSBC released a bearish note on the pharmaceutical sector, citing US tariff risks, a significant patent cliff, and headwinds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

• HSBC Report Highlights:
  • Novartis, GSK, Eli Lilly, and Biogen downgraded.
  • Concerns about tariffs potentially increasing consumer prices by 13%.

Tim Seymour and Karen Fireman discuss valuations and investment strategies in pharma:

• Tim Seymour [24:57]: "If they cleared up both [uncertainties], almost regardless of what it is, markets hate uncertainty more than anything else."

• Karen Fireman [25:37]: "Lilly is really tough to bet against here... Novartis... defensive kind of pharma."

Dan Niles expresses hesitancy to trade pharma stocks amidst these uncertainties:

• Dan Niles [23:18]: "Normally I would be leaning in heavy to pharma, but right now I'm stuck."

6. Foreign Investment Trends

The panel examines the trend of foreign investors reducing their exposure to US assets, a shift influenced by US reliability concerns and trade uncertainties.

• Dan Niles [31:41]: "Foreign investors are looking at a huge US allocation... a slow bleed of support out of the US Markets."

• Karen Fireman [33:31]: "International was always kind of 16 to 17... US is going to be coming in, making foreign markets more interesting."

Dan Niles highlights the potential for a weaker dollar due to reduced capital flows:

• Dan Niles [34:54]: "Capital flow is likely to be dominant... we're going to see net dollar selling."

This shift could lead to diversified investments in international markets and commodities like gold.

7. Canadian Election and US Trade Relations

Canadian elections are spotlighted, particularly in the context of President Trump's tariff policies.

• Dan Niles [41:01]: "Mark Carney is pushing back harder on Trump... could affect supply chains and stagflationary pressures."

• Karen Fireman [41:57]: "Canadian energy is a big player... could be a catalyst to the Leafs winning the Stanley Cup."

The US-Canada trade relationship remains critical, with potential disruptions impacting commodities and manufacturing sectors.

8. Consumer Impact and Retailers

Chinese retailers like TEMU and Shein have raised prices in response to US tariffs, albeit remaining cheaper than US counterparts.

• Melissa Lee [27:41]: "TEMU imposing import charges between 130-150%... Shein hiking prices by as much as 377%."

• Tim Seymour [28:07]: "Some products still incredibly cheap... but supply chain disruptions forthcoming."

Karen Fireman anticipates inventory shortages affecting consumers by late summer:

• Karen Fireman [39:22]: "Consumers are going to feel the pain... inventory stock out... back to school items."

9. Transport Sector Concerns

UPS is highlighted as a critical watch point, with earnings expected to shed light on broader economic health.

• Dan Nathan [36:54]: "UPS down 57% from Covid highs... expected to do seven and a half dollars in earnings."

Craig Fuller [38:11]: "Half a million in logistics layoffs in Southern California alone... expecting mass layoffs in logistics."

The transport sector's decline is seen as a bellwether for economic contraction and labor market tightening.

10. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, the panel underscores the interconnectedness of these sectors and the broader implications for the US economy. With significant earnings reports ahead, shifting foreign investments, and trade tensions affecting multiple industries, the landscape remains volatile.

• Dan Niles [27:09]: "There are a large number of foreign investors who are worried... a slow bleed of support out of the US Markets."

• Karen Fireman [42:25]: "It's a recessionary environment... hang out or hide out in a name like McDonald's."

Melissa Lee concludes by teasing upcoming discussions on sectors like healthcare and the ongoing impact of tariffs, emphasizing the need for strategic investment decisions in uncertain times.

Notable Takeaways:

• Tech Sector: Earnings may not suffice to revive indices amidst guidance uncertainties.
• Trade Tariffs: Significant hikes by US tariffs are disrupting supply chains and increasing consumer costs.
• Pharma Sector: Facing downgrades due to multiple headwinds, making it a cautious area for investors.
• Foreign Investments: A gradual withdrawal from US assets could impact market stability.
• Transport and Logistics: Declines signal potential economic downturns and job losses.
• Canadian-U.S. Trade Relations: Upcoming elections in Canada could influence future trade dynamics.

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions from CNBC's "Fast Money" episode, providing investors and listeners with valuable insights into current market trends and potential future movements.