← CNBC's "Fast Money"
CNBC's "Fast Money"
Biotech Breaks Out… And AI Impact On The Real Estate Industry 11/11/25
00:43:46
Biotech sees a breakout, as the group keeps up with the Mag7 stocks this year. The names leading that charge, and the prognosis for the group heading into year end. Plus, An AI warning for the real estate sector. Why one industry giant is flagging potential job cuts, and the next move for the space as rates decline. Fast Money Disclaimer
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- [00:00]
Melissa Lee
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all.
- [00:21]
Tim Seymour
Because life is a winding path made.
- [00:24]
Melissa Lee
Rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC Men need a.
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Tim Seymour
Store that has the right thing for their thing. Like a Kenneth Cole suit made with Shellflex fabric to keep them cool at their cousin in law's third wedding in the middle of July. Whatever the thing, Men's Wearhouse has the clothes for it. Love the way you look. Men's Wearhouse.
- [00:49]
Melissa Lee
Live in the NASDAQ markets in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A biotech boom. Health care stocks quietly rallying this year. The IBB ETF trading at more than 4 year highs. What is behind the Sur and which stocks hold the most potential here we'll debate that. And an office hurricane. That's what one top investor says is coming for the commercial real estate market where he is seeing signs for concern and how to play the space right now. Plus Apple playing catch up with the rest of the Max 7, an energized trade in the oil patch and an auto stock to buy asap. What the chartmaster says you should be adding to your portfolio immediately. I'm Melissa Lee, come to you live from Studio B at the nasdaq. On the desk tonight, Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with the latest shot in the arm for the biotech trade.
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Tim Seymour
I heard.
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Melissa Lee
I mean, why not? Shot in the arm. The group continuing its charge higher with the iShares Biotech ETF. ETF up almost 3% for its best day since May 12th. It's now trading at levels not seen since the fall of 2021. And don't look now, but the longtime laggard is actually keeping pace with Mega Cap tech this year. Both the IBB and the Mag 7 are roughly up 25% since January. All this coming in a big year for Biopharma M. And A15 deals worth 1 billion dol have been struck so far in 2025 as Big Pharma looks to replenish their pipeline. So can biotech keep the momentum going and how should investors approach the space right now? I don't know if a lot of people are aware about this performance of the sector versus the mag seven neck and neck.
- [02:23]
Tim Seymour
Well, if they'd be watching CNBC's Fast Money, they might be wearing Tim's, the guy that gets the band aid on his arm after he gets an inoculation. Right. With a little smiley face. I don't even know what an inoculation is, but obviously if you're talking about band aids, it's something you do all the time anyhow. No, y. This group can continue. Look at Gilead all time high. Even Merck. Big day for Merck. Bristol Myers getting off the mat. We mentioned structure last night. All these all names X, Eli Lilly, which is in a class by itself, are starting to find some momentum and I think the momentum will continue, especially in 26 when I think there's a big huge M and A around the space.
- [02:57]
Melissa Lee
Yeah, I mean historical valuations compared to itself when it comes to biotech or health care or insurers. Historic lows compared to five years. I mean it's, it's all value. Right, Right, it is. And I mean even though it's been a nice move, there's still a big way to go and you know, there was so much to sort of hate about it. And right now they seem to be out of the bad graces, I guess in the good graces of the Trump administration and this rotation kind of looking for where is their value. We now Borla yesterday was very excited about his business. I mean there's a lot of momentum that still could come into this space. Right. Even though it looks like it's moved a lot. I think if you look at, you know, names with single digit multiples or low double digit multiples still with decent yields and still I know some of them we have loss of exclusivity, a lot of issues around the whole space, but still there's a lot of value there even if you discount for that. Right. I mean the forward P E now for health care as a group is something like 18, a little less than 18. The average five year historical is north of 20. So there's. There's a lot. There's a gap like 24, I think. So there's a gap there in terms.
- [04:11]
Tim Seymour
Of valuation and there's certainly underinvestment. I mean the rotation that needs to still happen into this space I think is substantial, especially when you consider that this is typically anywhere from 10 to 13 to 14 to 15% of an allocation in a traditional portfolio and in many cases underweight, with the exception of Lilly. Lilly, which, you know, basically did nothing for 12 months until it went up 55% in the last three months to make all time highs. Not something people were expecting. While we've talked about Novo, definitely almost hitting three month, excuse me, three year lows during this time. So it does show where Lilly and we talked about this yesterday. So we don't need to talk about the pipeline today. We can certainly talk about where investors are looking for growth and growth that may be part of that 493 conversation from yesterday, which is there are other parts of the economy that are also benefiting from least the margin story and at least some of the efficiencies that could be coming here. I think this is as much to do with rotation and that the Trump administration is kind of implicitly, not explicitly implicitly said pressure's off. United Health Care, although this has been a volatile ride also, I think the worst is over there. That to me is value territory. That to me is a company that even with the Medicare Advantage concerns, I think we've gotten some sense of what we know at 26 is going to look like. And at this point that is a valuation I could buy. So I don't think this is just biotech. I think this is health care. I think this is pharma. And they're not all the same.
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Melissa Lee
I mean, health care had one of its biggest inflows in October for years. I mean, in terms of the rotation, Jared Holz of Mizuho said this is one of the largest rotation days that he has seen. And so you piece together what you've seen in terms of the question marks around the trade, question marks around capex and valuations there. What are we getting for that money? And you then take a look at the extreme discounted valuations of health care and it all sort of makes sense.
- [05:56]
Tim Seymour
And you mentioned a 17 valuation. You back out Eli Lilly, which is trading 31 times and that's probably a 12 or 13 valuation. And again, maybe Lilly deserves that. I'm not going to argue whether or not it's deserved. But when you have Merck, single digit, high single digits in terms of multiple, Bristol Myers, the same type of thing, some of these biotechs, same type of thing, just value alone, they make sense. And then you put on top of that the potential for M and A in the space and I think they're on a hair trigger. You know, it's interesting, Tim, you mentioned UNH and the valuation there. And I know that this was what Carter used to call it, the unh, that chart of all time. And then it went down 70. Talking about, you know, in the last year. And I'm not. That's not a call on his call. He's right for a very long time from the technicals. But, you know, to your point about valuation, I mean, the stocks had a big run off those August lows. And when you think about how it just sold off a bit, is it have to do with the fact that these ACA subsidies are not going to get extended, that sort of thing? And I don't think that's great for them. I think they're going to lose a lot of customers. Right. If these. If these subsidies or these premiums go up dramatically. So that's one. You guys all make a real. I don't know anything about pharma, but you guys all make a really good case of why you've seen this rotation and why you're going to see, you know, a sort of environment where it's going to be good for M and A and the valuation and regulation, all that sort of stuff. But UNH does not seem like one. That's interesting to me here.
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Melissa Lee
Mm. Warren Buffett thinks it's interesting. Well, I mean, yeah, he's got like.
- [07:19]
Tim Seymour
40 years on me, you know, at least.
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Melissa Lee
I mean, there's a lot of value investors in that space now. Just, Just UNH in particular, actually. I mean, to have Warren Buffett and then also David Tepper, that's one that I miss. Good for you, Timmy. I mean, I think you're right. I think it's sort of. It's bottomed out. They seem to be able to, you know, put guidance out there and meet it, which was something that last year they were unable to do multiple times. So the valuation is not stretched here either. So. I agree.
- [07:50]
Tim Seymour
I mean, there's a lot in the.
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Melissa Lee
Whole space across the board. Big tech, big cap. Pharma, I think, is sort of the most interesting.
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Tim Seymour
And there's. So there's liquidity. So we're talking about M and A, we're talking about less government. And even though there's still a lot of uncertainty out of HHS and certainly negotiated contracts for Medicare, we. The technical details that people know well, especially the sector specialists, but the generals had kind of forgotten about, which is that a lot of these negotiations aren't really going to affect these companies in the short term, that a lot of these patent cliffs are looking at past 2030 or that we price them in now. So I just think it gets back to a case on a day when the S and P was largely flat. Up 20 bips. Sentiment's decent. You know, we've, we've certainly bounced nicely off the 50. We'll have our market shot. But the outperformance of the XLV to the S and P today and where it sits on a, on a one year chart, this is a breakout. I mean this is a breakout that we've talked about at different stages over the last three months because we've had these days. But this is the day that it actually feels like there's more to do. Especially when these are some talk about putting capacity to work. There's a lot of room to put a lot of money into big, big cap pharma, biotech, health care and then even out the curve of those M and A targets. Karen, you brought up Viking Day. It's a name I'm long It's not necessarily a name that he brought it up. I'm sorry Guy brought up.
- [09:05]
Melissa Lee
I know we all the time like.
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Tim Seymour
Are you guy adults? STEPHANIE L. Yes. You're lucky enough to look like Karen and it's a case where that I think there are those targets and if there's a feeding frenzy over Med. Sarah or maybe there's not but it shows you that even in GOP land where now the price story for the two leaders doesn't look so great. What it does mean is it establishes a broader playing field even for those takeout names. I'm long Viking full disclosure and establishes.
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Melissa Lee
A valuation benchmark for some of the other takeout candidates potentially out there like a structured or Viking, which we've talked about many times on this show in terms of what has been I mean what has been priced in could be so much. I mean you saw the blueprint in a way for Lilly and Novo Nordisk in terms of pricing for Medicare and Medicaid. It wasn't as bad as expected. Take a look at the stock since then. I mean that has been a cloud that has since lifted on them because it wasn't as bad as feared.
- [10:00]
Tim Seymour
Yeah. And I'm surprised it took this when I say this long. We heard from the administration a few weeks ago or a month or so ago and it seemed like you got the all clear sign at that point. Then they sort of meandered for a while. Now they're doing what they should have done I think on the back of that announcement. So I do think the bullseyes off their back valuations are compelling. Yeah. Pipelines are challenged for some of these companies, but it's discounted in terms of the valuation in these stocks. Already, so I'm with Tim on this. And by the way, XLV, I think it was August of last year, 158 or so. I mean we're dangerously close to taking out that prior all time high.
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Melissa Lee
So you talk about not being as bad as feared, but I think it was much better because yes, the price is lower, but if you think about how broad the market can be now, how many, how many tens of millions of retreated. Right. That is it. I mean that makes sense for the government to do, I think. And I think they'll do it in scale. Yep. For more on where biopharma goes from here, let's bring in Lyric partner Senior Managing Director David Risinger, who this week upgraded Eli Lilly. David, great. Great to have you with us. Let's take Lilly out of the equation for a moment and focus on sort of the value areas of your sector. Are you seeing generals come in? I mean, how do you interpret this move higher?
- [11:16]
Tim Seymour
Yes. Well, first of all, thank you so much for having me. It's an honor to be here. What we're seeing is definitely money flows into the sector and that's driven by, you know, market rotation. And indeed I think that many generalists have been caught underweight health care and wondering why they were so underweight health care increasing their positions across biopharma. You know, what we've seen is obviously companies that have the strongest growth prospects are attracting capital, but also other stocks with lower valuations as well.
- [11:54]
Melissa Lee
So where do you see the most interest? I mean, you mentioned lower valuation. So like a Merck Bristol Myers versus Biotech, which could be interpreted as the targets? Do you focus on the acquirers or the acquirees?
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Tim Seymour
Yeah, great question. So we try to focus on the companies that we think have the best prospects, the best risk reward opportunities for investors. That does include both large caps and mid cap companies. And since you brought it up, we have seen a number of M and A transactions this year. We expect more. The large companies remain hungry. They need to continue to enhance their revenue prospects. We obviously saw more Merck by Verona earlier this year, JNJ by Intracellular. And we do think that SMID cap biotech can continue to perform well after having a rough go of it over the past five years. David. Tim, thanks. Most misunderstood name out there. I mean there are a few to me that are either companies that we are not believing their story despite what they tell us over and over again. Pfizer to me is one of those names, but. Or is it a JNJ that's had a great run but people still are worried about some kind of a talc overhang. Pick a bulge bracket name that you think is misunderstood, that you're bullish on, please. Yeah, absolutely. So I guess that would be more in the value side of the equation. So one that comes to mind is Bristol Myers so that that company has a low valuation. We're looking for two developments in the near term. The first is the Co Benfi Alzheimer's disease psychosis trial readout. We're hoping that can succeed in coming months, but that's a binary event. And then in addition, we're watching a competitor's novel blood thinner readout that's from Bayer in Germany. If their novel blood thinner succeeds in a secondary stroke prevention trial in the next few months, that will definitely benefit Bristol shares because they're developing Milvexian, which has mega blockbuster potential as a novel blood thinner.
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Melissa Lee
David, it's Karen, thanks for being on. So we know there's a rotation away from AI but when we talk about AI for the pharmaceutical space, is the promise really there? Do you think that the drugs can be developed that much quicker and that much more efficiently cheaper that it is that part of what this rotation is about?
- [14:22]
Tim Seymour
I don't think the rotation is about AI for pharma. The issue is that the complexity of human biology and disease is such that the experts can't even agree on what causes Alzheimer's and you know, what mechanisms of drugs would appropriately treat Alzheimer's. So certainly AI is beneficial and will continue to make the industry more efficient and there'll be a lot more to come longer term. But you know, it's not a quick fix for innovation in the sector.
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Melissa Lee
How can we think of sort of the biotech targets, David, in terms of the areas that they target, the therapies that, that target certain diseases and or the advancement of the experimental drug, phase three for instance, versus a phase one or phase two level drug.
- [15:16]
Tim Seymour
Sure. Well, we've certainly seen transactions and everything from cardiometabolic, you know, for example, Pfizer, Medsera to inflammation and immunology. We're seeing more interest in neuroscience. So it's across, you know, mega therapeutic categories that we've seen transaction activity and we expect that to persist. Certainly the biggest of companies need big needle movers and they obviously do many transactions each year involving emerging companies. But we think that a number of large companies need to fill big patent holes and are interested in larger scale transactions that can have a greater impact on their long term revenue prospects.
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Melissa Lee
David, great to speak with you. Thank you. So much for joining us tonight.
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Tim Seymour
Thank you again for having me.
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Melissa Lee
David Risinger of Lilly again, he's the one who upgraded Lilly, which had a nice day today, along with Novo. Novo, the better performer in today's session.
- [16:17]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, again, I think first of all, David really got granular on some stuff that's really separating those from those that are not performing here. And I think the story again around Lilly is that this is a broader portfolio of drugs. We've almost kind of moved past it. Remember when we were rallying this on, on the Alzheimer's dynamic? So I think if I look at, you know, the Merck's, the Pfizers, the Bristols and even the Novos, those are the names that are the most fascinating to me because those are all names that are down 12 to 15% this year. And you can make a fundamental argument that none of these companies are broken. You look at Bristol, first of all, last night we said Lyric is the axe in the space. They are second Bristol. He's right. Just valuation alone and just look at the last quarter, some of the things that they said. This could easily be a $60 stock outlook.
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Melissa Lee
Meantime, let's get to Apple here setting a record close today. The tech stock popping more than 2% for its first close above $275. The iPhone maker got off to a slow start this year while Metta got out of the gate gangbusters. But Apple's steady climb higher coupled with Meta's post earnings pullback now has it outperforming so far this year. Dan, what do you make of Apple's move here?
- [17:20]
Tim Seymour
I think it has a lot to do with rotation. Right. So as we've seen a bit of trepidation, we've seen the way Microsoft sold off, Meta sold off. Obviously Amazon and Google did pre well after their earnings and I think Apple's results were just good enough. I don't think they were like exceptional or anything like that. And I think a lot of folks after a year and a half contemplating what Apple intelligence meant, what it means for an upgrade cycle, I think they've gotten comfortable with the fact that no one's really got great AI on a cell phone right there. So they've done what they needed to do. It seems like folks are very happy with their high end phones. It's just amazing to me that they keep upgrading to fifteen hundred dollar phones. Think about that. You buy a laptop for $1300 and you keep it around for, for, I don't know, five years or something like that. So the notion that this has become a utility and one that people are willing to pay for. I think says a lot to it. And then ultimately late 26 when you finally have something that's AI that's like dragging, you know, folks in who have not upgraded. I think it's going to be a good thing. So I think it's just running ahead.
- [18:19]
Melissa Lee
Of all that so early in the year. I think there was a penalty on.
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Tim Seymour
It for not having a big air.
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Melissa Lee
Spend right now there's a premium to it for not having a big I spend. That's a pretty big pendulum swing. Yeah. That changes the landscape certainly again we.
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Tim Seymour
But I think the reason that Apple Intelligence is nothing was nothing and is still nothing is why you want to own it. Because it's just not in there. I mean people are refreshed. We we we know demand on this i17 is better than expected. It probably will be and it's maybe less about i17. It's just where we are in the cycle of replace or whatnot. You can't tell me the way the world works today and I realize tomorrow is a very different story than today but that people aren't going to be served up AI on their phones and that Apple won't be there to do it and that therefore they'll be able to dictate very aggressive deals whether it's with the Googles or other people that serve it up. They haven't even gone out to the app the the developer community to really make their presence known. That's why I just feel this name's going higher.
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Melissa Lee
It's Apple Intelligence may not be in there but it's already a 33 times forward P E so how much more can be in it when you put it in when it's already trading 33.
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Tim Seymour
Times P E five years ago.
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Melissa Lee
So okay there was growing more quickly.
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Tim Seymour
Then was it was and there was a point in time when it was it was growing gangbusters was trading 13 times forward earnings and that's when it was a growth stock. Charlie Bilelo I believe I did pronounce it like that. I want to make sure I do it properly emphasize okay you know otherwise silly Charlie Bolello well you did it a lot nice.
- [19:53]
Melissa Lee
Anyway what were you going to make.
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Tim Seymour
A point made a point of saying price to sales is trading close to 10 historically it trades 5.7 earnings trading 33 times next year last 10 years has been trading about 24. So his point today was your point that it's a lot of this is already priced in we've got a news.
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Melissa Lee
Alert on the faa. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy just giving an update on flight cancellations in the last hour. Our Filiboe has a this Phil and.
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Tim Seymour
Melissa to the main question, which is what happens if the government shutdown ends? How quickly will flights be restored? Here's what the transportation secretary said just a few minutes ago out at o' Hare Airport. It depends on air traffic controller staffing. The good news is there were fewer staffing issues today than yesterday and fewer yesterday than on Sunday trending in the right direction. Current cancellation plans. They, however, do remain in place. And Secretary Duffy has a blunt warning about the cancellation rate if the government shutdown continues. Oh, I think it's going to be more than 10% and I think we might find airlines that have to make decisions. Do they keep flying if this doesn't open? You might have airlines that say we're going to ground our planes, we're not going to fly anymore. That's how serious this is. Now, let's be clear here. None of the airlines have said, look, we're going to ground all of our planes at this point. And I think it would be highly unlikely at this point to say that they are planning on doing that. But at this point, they are planning to cancel 8% of their flights on Thursday. Melissa, even if the House votes to reopen the government and the president says, yes, let's do it tomorrow night, it's going to take some time. So it won't be immediate. But that is the state of things.
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Melissa Lee
Right now is most of the time because the planes aren't in the right place.
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Tim Seymour
A little bit of that. And also you don't know for sure that you're going to get the air traffic controller staffing that you expect on Thursday morning. In a perfect world, everybody reports to work and they go back to staffing that existed before the shutdown. But you don't know that for sure until we actually get to Thursday morning if the House votes to reopen the government tomorrow.
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Melissa Lee
Phil, thank you.
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Tim Seymour
Phil LeBeau, there's another important Thursday out there, a couple weeks away guy, couple weeks away, Thanksgiving.
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Melissa Lee
Well, hopefully it gets resolved before that because otherwise gobble, gobble might be ruined for many families across the country or saved for some or just generally saying that's all.
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Tim Seymour
Sure, we look, you might know some people airlines.
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Melissa Lee
Do we look through this?
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Tim Seymour
Yes, you do. I mean it's, it's first of all week over week. You just saw those numbers we posted up small in the week. If anything, things are getting better for them all Right.
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Melissa Lee
Coming up, all the headlines from AMD's investor day, the trillion dollar semiconductor promise and whether the company can deliver on its next gen AI chips. That's next. Plus strength in the energy trade crew taking a leg higher, bringing the excellent along with it. The names or traders are watching ahead. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two. Hey friends, this is Audie Cornish, host of CNN this morning. And the assignment. And guess what? Every story you care about is, every angle you want unpacked is now streaming on cnn. That means you can catch my show or other CNN programming whenever you want on your favorite device. And a subscription also gets you access to exclusive video series and unlimited articles. So subscribe to CNN@CNN.com subscription CNBC's Changemakers 2026 list spotlighting women who innovate, lead boldly and are transforming business. Do you know someone who is rewriting the future? Nominate them now at cnbc.com/changemakers. Welcome back to Fast Money. AMD hosting its first financial analyst day in three years. CEO Lisa Su saying the chip company's revenue could grow more than 30% over the next few years. The stock down more than 2 1/2% today, but is nearly doubled this year. The event wrapping in just the last hour. CNBC's Christina Parts Neveless has highlights and joins us on set. I would actually say the last few minutes so it went really long. It was upstairs, I was upstart at 1pm and the Q&A just ended. But the $1 trillion, that's the big number I'll start with. That is the new total addressable market forecast for AMD by 2030, a big leap from the $500 billion forecast earlier this year. But that number includes not just AI chips but also traditional processors, CPUs, networking, high bandwidth memory, she just added, which some investors view maybe as just too over inclusive, I should say. Sue, projected overall revenue like you said, will grow at about 30 annually over just the next three to five years. The data center business is expected to grow even faster at roughly 80% per year, reaching what they say is quote, tens of billions of dollars in sales by 2027. Sue also said AMD sees a clear path to over 50% server market share. That's why you did see Intel's shares fall on the news right when she said that. On the product side, AMD does plan to offer a full rack scale solution. So not just just the chips, the entire rack, much like Nvidia does in an open ecosystem. Sue really took a shot at Nvidia emphasizing that AMD's competitor operates a closed system while AMD is open. Sue also pushed back on the air bubble concerns in the Q and A just moments ago, noting hyperscalers raising their spending are quote extremely well funded with strong balance sheets and are seeing real value from their AI investments on OpenAI specifically because we know they have a deal. Suede defended their aggressive forecast, pointing to user based growth growth at OpenAI and adding I wouldn't bet against that. CEO Lisa Su will be on Squawk box tomorrow morning at 8:10 Eastern. Want to miss that Christina? Thank you Christina. Parts nebulous. The move in AMD comes amid broader weakness in the chip sector today. Micron Lam Research, Marvell Technology all seeing outsized losses. Nvidia down 3% after SoftBank said it sold its entire $5.8 billion stake in the company. So what do you mean I don't know where you want to trade here if it's AMD and the disappointment surrounding.
- [25:59]
Tim Seymour
What was a great story valuation problem. Although people say given their earnings growth maybe they'll grow into the valuation. That's one side of the equation. It's the valuation scares me a little bit. I think in video is interesting. Softbank announcing that ahead of earnings I think is somewhat noteworthy in the stock act in kind we hear from them on the 19th we had a mat I believe I want to say it was today that stock traded up to almost a prior all time high and seemingly failed. So maybe a double top there. So maybe there's some things around the edges that are not as good as it seems on the front.
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Melissa Lee
By the way I don't know if you caught that but the after hours chart in AMD up three and a half percent. So that's an interesting sort of reversal of what we saw in today's session. Yes.
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Tim Seymour
You know it's funny.
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Melissa Lee
Sorry that would make it flat. Yeah.
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Tim Seymour
Although I speak in reversal she pointed at me and then went straight to Dan head fake.
- [26:47]
Melissa Lee
Yes. Honestly.
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Tim Seymour
Nice dime.
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Melissa Lee
Wow.
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Tim Seymour
Think about that guidance on the revenue front. It's like the next two years expected to be about 35%. Right. So that's where consensus what is it's just those next few years as you get to 2028 into 2030 and again I mean your guess is as good as mine what the revenue is going to be like. Your guess is as good as mine how their chips perform relative to that of in video. And the last thing you know Christina said this is like the closed system versus the open system well, you know Nvidia has 72% gross margins and AMD with their open system has about 52%. I think going into this investor day. Of course we always say you don't have an investor day unless there's something good to say. Yeah but, but I think you actually saw the analyst community lower expectations into this investor day. That's why I think we're getting a bit of a relief here now. And I think we just got a little bit more of a roadmap on what the data center CPU GPU roadmap will look like. And I think that's important. I think it's important that AMD continues to have these more regular updates. They have not an investor day I think in three years. So I think it was an important day. Remember this is the A in bland. So I am long and I am committed to this acronym played of course the right way.
- [28:04]
Melissa Lee
Extremely committed, I'm sure committed. How do you feel about Softbank dumping Nvidia the rest of it? I don't actually think it's a big deal. I mean it's you know, 5.4 for them. I guess they need the $5 billion to do something else tiny compared to the market cap video Nvidia.
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Tim Seymour
So I don't by the way just my entire life you have to be really, I mean you only, you know, this is what it is. Why wouldn't you be acronym done really.
- [28:31]
Melissa Lee
Well this I'm sure your tube is done that there is a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next.
- [28:37]
Tim Seymour
Next, more AI and ship trading coming up as coreweave craters on weak guidance, how one of our traders is playing the move and where the stock heads from here. And speaking of AI, one real estate titan is flagging the major impact it could have on the office space market. What it means for commercial properties and where the most opportunity in the sector is. Now you're watching Fast Money live from the NASDAQ market site in time Times Square. We're back right after this. Hey there, it's Dr. Sanjay Gupta with some exciting news to share. CNN is now streaming. That means you can read, watch and stream everything in one subscription. You can watch news live 24 7. You can also explore catch up videos and explainer videos. And you can also watch the library of CNN's originals including my latest documentary. It doesn't have to hurt, just go to CNN.com allaccess the heaviest metal credit card of all time. Rumored to be one of only 18 in existence plated with the very same tungsten that forged the international space station and wielded at business dinners like a samurai sword. It's a classic corporate power move, but the real power move, having end to end visibility on your most critical shipments.
- [30:10]
Melissa Lee
FedEx, the new power move. Welcome back to Fast Money. Investors rotating out of tech stocks today sending the NASDAQ lower. The S and P meanwhile, gained 2.10of a percent while the Dow added more than 500 points gains to set a record close. That gain powered by Goldman Sachs which also closed at a record. Shares now up nearly 42% in 2025. Gold ticking higher today, hitting its highest level since October 24th. The yellow metal up nearly 57% this year. And crude oil settling firmly above $60 a barrel as investors weigh new sanctions on Russian exports. And a wrap up of the US government shutdown. Oil stocks now up 5% in the last week led by names like Targa Resources, APA Corp, Marathon Equity and Devon Guy Equity. Yes, I know. Second time we're mentioning the tube.
- [31:01]
Tim Seymour
Well, listen, sometimes your mind now these stocks again. We talked about health care at the beginning of the show. Let's talk about energy now. It's a very similar story. A lot of valuations so you can wrap your head around under loved sector for the last couple of years. It's finally getting off the mat very quietly. Valero at an all time high. Marathon Petroleum flirting with an all time high equity which Brian Sullivan interviewed the CEO a few months ago. Finally getting off the mat and doing what it should be doing. So I still love the space.
- [31:31]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, the warning signs our next guest sees in office space and commercial real estate and where he sees the most opportunity that is next. Best money is back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money, a real estate titan with an ominous take on AI's impact on the industry. To the property play. CNBC's Diana oh look joins us now with the details from her interview with Starwood Capital's Barry Sternlich. Diana? Well, Melissa Sternlich did not mince words in this wide ranging interview, especially when it comes to the impact of AI on his own business.
- [32:11]
Tim Seymour
There's no question AI is going to change the entire world and do it much faster than anything we've ever seen before. Much faster. The Internet certainly faster than the Industrial Revolution. That is terrifying to me. I mean like I'm not so complacent. I look at through my companies and our how we spend money and what I can do with AI agents that I do with humans today. And it's terrifying for the people do.
- [32:34]
Melissa Lee
You expect to lose people?
- [32:35]
Tim Seymour
I think we have to let people go, right? We can with jobs of 15 people can be done with a chatbot that cost me $36 a month. I mean it's the white collar jobs. And you're seeing this is a very ominous sign, this rise in unemployment for the 18 to 24 year olds, which I think has gone to 4 to 9%.
- [32:55]
Melissa Lee
What is that stern look said Starwood has about $20 billion invested in data centers. I asked if he thought that sector was overheating. He said it's a different issue than you think.
- [33:08]
Tim Seymour
Most of us don't build until we get a hyperscaler lease. So we get the lease from Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle. We've gotten leases from all those companies. Oracle. What we're watching now is the credit worthiness of the tenant and particularly Oracle because Oracle is doing all these deals back ended to chat. And Chat is a startup that doesn't make money and requires hundreds of billions of dollars to grow to the scale they want to be. And everyone's hedging their Oracle risk because they're backing a startup who's competing against companies like Google or Amazon or Microsoft who have massive balance sheets and really don't have to access the public capital or the kindness of venture investors at ever higher prices.
- [33:52]
Melissa Lee
There is much more from this interview on Office multifamily and of course the Mamdani effect on New York City real estate. You can link to the full video podcast from the newsletter, that's cnbc.compropertyplay or use that QR code. Melissa. Fascinating interview, Diana. Thank you. Diana Olek, One activist investor is avoiding the Big Apple's office space market amidst Iran Mamdani's win. John Litt is the Land and Buildings founder and chief investment officer. He joins us here on set. Jonathan, great to have you with us. It's not just New York City. It sounds like you don't have any position at all in office space. Why is that?
- [34:28]
Tim Seymour
Well, if you recall, back in 20, we came on after the pandemic and said work from home is going to be a problem.
- [34:34]
Melissa Lee
Right.
- [34:35]
Tim Seymour
And we said stay alive till 25. Now we're in 25 and alive for those people that survived is about as good as it gets. It's not thriving. And whether it's Mandami here in New York that is concerned or it's work from home continuing, there's been some recovery, but it's still a problem. And now we have AI and you know, Barry said it and stole my thunder a little bit. But I think is the next challenge for office. Where are those, what's going to happen to those empty desks and empty spaces as they come up? And I think it's a real, a real challenge that lies ahead.
- [35:05]
Melissa Lee
I mean, when you think about how, how it's going to shape up given AI and given the job losses assumed from AI replacing humans, do you think the next position you would take in office real estate would be a short?
- [35:20]
Tim Seymour
You know, we're looking at it and the market has stabilized to quite a large degree. The area where we're still short is in the office of lab space. And despite some of the damage that's been done in that space, there's still a lot of challenges ahead and we do remain short in that space. I think you were short in Alexandria Realty when it was a triple digit stock. I think it's trading at 15 year lows, disastrous quarter. You stay short this thing. And the move to the downside has been dramatic. You know, it's a great question. I came on in 23 to talk about Alexandria stock was 120. People thought I was crazy. All of our research said people aren't back in the space and when those leases come up, they're not going to renew. And Alexandria is now seeing that they're not renewing. They can't lease up their development assets and the Stock's gone from 120 to 50 and change. And so this happened more recently, you know, another $20 down. And so we went back and said, maybe this should be a long, maybe we should look at it from the other side. We went back to the people we spoke to when we put the original short on and they said, john, I know why you're calling. It's a bloodbath out there. They said, it's worse than you can imagine because we own assets, billions of dollars worth of assets. We can't lease it. And the cost to put a tenant in if we find a tenant is so great, it doesn't make sense. We're more inclined to give the assets back. And as we thought about that, we said, you know, the problem is going to go from a leasing problem to a balance sheet problem. For Alexandria, they have a very highly leveraged balance sheet. They have huge capital commitments on the development program. They have an overpaid dividend. They're going to have to cut or eliminate the dividend and they're going to have to sell assets aggressively or sell equity to keep the balance sheet afloat, keep the company afloat. And so I don't think the story's over on the short. And you know, we might be wrong in the short term, but, but I think, I think it's going to be a challenge for them.
- [37:11]
Melissa Lee
I want to ask you also about a stock that had a huge move in today's session, CSR Center Space. It confirmed the board that the board initiated a strategic review that may include a sale, a merger, business combinations or just going along with its existing strategy. What's your thesis here and what do you anticipate?
- [37:29]
Tim Seymour
So if you zoom out and think about reeds, they've been trading at big discounts because of the Fed tight tightening and that's persisted. Apartments is the hottest area for institutional capital to get invested. I don't say the hottest area, but an active area. This company was trading in the $50, $60 share range and they've now announced strategic alternatives. One analyst after the market closed said it's worth $85 to $95. These are, these companies are either going to go private or the stocks are going to recover. This will be the third apartment REIT this year that has tried to grapple with this and the other two liquidated. Last year we had activist campaigns in two companies that Blackstone bought in the residential space. I think it's going to continue. I think this company will be sold in short order.
- [38:15]
Melissa Lee
Jonathan, great to have you with us. Hope you'll come back soon. Jonathan litt, Absolutely.
- [38:19]
Tim Seymour
Thank you for having me.
- [38:20]
Melissa Lee
What do you think of the space, Karen? I have no exposure to the space. I do think that, you know, I think about New York City. I feel like there's still early innings of class B and everything below that, finding a, finding a floor. But for the rest, the return, you know, return to office and for class A space. Rents are high. Yeah. Coming up, Core we've crushed after earnings last night. One of our traders has had a winning bet on the stock. What they're doing now. Fast Money return. Welcome back to FAST money. Core weave crumbling after last night's earnings report. Despite posting better than expected, revenue shares dropped 16% to two month lows today. Investors disappointed in the company's revenue guidance. Expecting revenues between 5.05 and $5.15 billion. One of our traders starting to short the start or started to short the stock back in September. So, Karen, what do you do now? So what do I do now is I cover some and really the impetus for the short was I had significant exposure to the space through Nvidia, through.
- [39:24]
Tim Seymour
Dell, through Meta, and so I put.
- [39:28]
Melissa Lee
Some collars on there. But I think out of core weave as really a sentiment indicator in the space. Right. Sort of at the center of it all. And if there's talk about overbuilding or problems with the debt, any of that, I thought Corweave would really sort of be right at the center. And so, you know, they had a mission that they, I think they actually didn't do a bad job of explaining it, but it didn't matter. Right.
- [39:54]
Tim Seymour
The sentiment was just.
- [39:55]
Melissa Lee
All right, so maybe the story is.
- [39:57]
Tim Seymour
Unraveling more and let's go buy some pharma.
- [40:00]
Melissa Lee
So I covered about 40% and valuation. I don't know what to make of it here. I mean, Dan, I were talking before the show, I mean looking at the straddles, it's very wide expectations of where this could go. If it goes lower, I'll cover some more. But I think that we got to wait to see what happens within video to see where the rest the next chapter of this story is. Yeah, November 19th.
- [40:25]
Tim Seymour
You know, Jim Chanos, friend of the show, friend of mine, he was highlighting last night after the call, like the depreciation schedules that a lot of these companies are using for the GPUs. They're way too long. I mean they're just, I think they have them like seven to ten years or something like that.
- [40:41]
Melissa Lee
Seven to ten years?
- [40:41]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean a lot of folks, or maybe it's somewhere like in the 7% average or something like that. And you know, when you look at these, the degradation of these, it's probably more like three to five years, you know. And so if you're making long term, you know, projections on earnings based on a longer term sort of depreciation, I mean we're going to see some funky stuff, you know, especially a company like this that has been raising a lot of debt. At the end of last year was $10 billion in debt and that was on the market cap, I think of like 20 billion when it went public at the end of Q1. And now it's obviously a $48 billion market cap. But they are losing money. They don't have a lot of cash on the balance sheet and they're probably have a depreciation schedule that's much longer than is. Go ahead, you quickly. I just say Michael Burry has been writing about this and you know, depreciation schedule maybe should be six to nine months. And quickly, the great trade. Number one, traded down to the September low. Number two, did it on three times normal volume. So this is a logical place to cover some of our short and wait see what happens within video. Well done.
- [41:44]
Melissa Lee
Coming up, a five star stock surge. The name Chartmaster says is heading higher immediately even as shares have gained 85% already this year. Carter Worth lay up the technicals. That is next. More fast money into the. Welcome back to fast money. Lyft shares continuing to climb up 55% since Carter Worth put out a buy call back in August. Great call. While the stock has hit its original price objective, he says there's still more gains to come. Carter, what do you see?
- [42:20]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, I mean I would keep this. I mean the judgment was to come out, but I think you stay. Let's look at the two charts that we've got. So the here and now chart, you see that gapping? That's very bullish. Price volume correlation. It's got fantastic relative performance to both Uber and to the market. And then of course the key here is this level. Look at this next chart. What an epic and important bearish to bullish reversal buy. You'll see in the long term chart, the second iteration, the key level here and where this stock even as it fills that drop in gap associated with earnings in January 22nd, it's a quick move to 30. So large long. Wow.
- [42:58]
Melissa Lee
All right, let's move on to GM and Ford. They've had some nice runs too. What do you see in the charts?
- [43:03]
Tim Seymour
Yeah, mixed bag. Obviously both, both have been good, but one is better. So here's a comparative chart just for fun. And this is looking at Ford versus GM and GM's the new GM's IPO in November of 2010. Of course you know GM has been the big winner. Ford's actually down. Let's add however, next chart, the S&P 500. They're both duds when it comes to the market, but the charts themselves. First let's go to one and then the other. Ford was $4. It rallies off the COVID low to 24. And you've got a resolution of this standoff just moving now out of the pennant formation triangle. You call it what you will. It's an important development. I'm a buyer. And then General Motors here is just now moving above its highs of about three years ago. So just a conventional bijuncture breaking out. Final chart for good measure. If one is a long short player. This is a relative performance chart which depicts simply General Motors relative performance to Ford. And what it suggests is that Ford obviously has been the winner. But now GM is about to overtake Ford for the first time in about four years. Breaking out on a relative basis.
- [44:14]
Melissa Lee
Carter. Thank you. Carter Braxton. Worth of worth charting. Let's get to Lyft because that's an interesting call. A great call on Carter's part. And to say to stay long, that's even bolder perhaps given the ground it has gained this year. It is the L in the L on Tim. That's how you pay it.
- [44:34]
Tim Seymour
I've been talking about this one forever.
- [44:36]
Melissa Lee
You dropped it in.
- [44:38]
Tim Seymour
That's fair anyway. And Carter was much more tactical. Tactical and timely on his call. I've been around this one for a while. I'm staying long left. I'm staying long GM. I'm staying long. Ford. I think all those charts look interesting.
- [44:49]
Melissa Lee
Up next, final trade news alert. Bloomberg reporting that payments from Bill holdings is exploring a sale. Shares are higher right now by about 15 and a half percent. Time for the final trade.
- [45:05]
Tim Seymour
Tim that was some health care pharma discussion we had in the abac. We really surrounded it. I think of all the names we mentioned. Unh. Is that chart again soon?
- [45:14]
Melissa Lee
Karen yes it is the ZY in my carbs trade Oi I like services.
- [45:21]
Tim Seymour
Space AMD I thought it was in my Jenny accurate but I feed AMD here not to be in my tube but Crystal Myers.
- [45:34]
Melissa Lee
Thanks for watching. Fast Fast Money Mad Money starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Fast Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com fastmoneydisclaimer CNBC Sport on.
- [46:20]
Tim Seymour
The Record, your front row seat to sports and business. From commissioners and owners to media executives and top athletes. These are Rembrandts, I'm telling you. These franchises on the Record, all news Saturdays, three Eastern.