CNBC’s Fast Money — “Biotech Breaks Out… And AI Impact On The Real Estate Industry”

Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee
Guests/Panellists: Tim Seymour, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami
Special Guests: David Risinger (Lyric Partners), Jonathan Litt (Land & Buildings)
Theme: Actionable investor news on the biotech rally, rotation trends, AI's impact on real estate, the energy trade, semiconductors, and stock picks.

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the surprise breakout in biotech and health care stocks, investigates rotation out of mega-cap tech, and discusses expectations for M&A in biopharma. The roundtable then pivots to the disruptive and chilling potential for AI in office real estate and job markets, CFD AMD’s “analyst day,” recent moves in the energy sector, and concludes with actionable stock picks and technical analysis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Biotech’s Surprise Rally Hot on the Heels of Tech (00:49–17:16)

• Biotech Outperformance

  • IBB Biotech ETF logged its best day since May 2025, up nearly 3%, reaching highs not seen since 2021 (00:49).
  • Biotech and the mega-cap tech “Mag 7” are neck and neck with ~25% gains in 2025 to date (01:36).

• Drivers of the Rally

  • Biopharma “M&A boom” — 15 deals worth $1B+ so far in 2025.
  • Sector rotation toward undervalued names as Big Pharma hunts to refresh pipelines.
  • Historical valuation gap: Forward P/E for healthcare is just under 18, while the five-year average is north of 20 (02:56).
  • “Rotation that needs to still happen into this space is substantial...” – Tim Seymour (04:11).

• Value, Regulation & M&A

  • Not just biotech but all of health care and pharma: “They're not all the same, but there's still a lot of value.” – Tim Seymour (05:31).
  • Reduced regulatory fear: Current administration has “implicitly” let off pressure on the sector.
  • “This is a breakout that we've talked about…today it actually feels like there's more to do.” – Tim Seymour (07:49).

• Names Highlighted

  • Value: Merck, Bristol Myers, Pfizer, UNH (UnitedHealth), Viking, Structured (05:56, 09:32).
  • Standouts: Eli Lilly’s run “in a class by itself” (02:22), Novo Nordisk.
  • Cautious: UNH called “bottomed out,” but questions on ACA subsidies (07:14), Buffett and Tepper both have large positions (07:23).

Notable Quote

“I think this is as much to do with rotation and that the Trump administration is kind of implicitly—not explicitly—said pressure’s off.” – Tim Seymour (04:11)

Timestamps for This Segment

• Biotech performance: 01:36
• Sector rotation, value, M&A: 02:22–10:36
• David Risinger interview: 11:16–16:05

2. Deep Dive: David Risinger (Lyric Partners) on Biopharma Value and M&A (11:16–16:08)

• Rotation Dynamics
  • “Generalist” investors are moving in, drawn by both growth stories and deep value (11:16).
  • “Large companies remain hungry—they need to…enhance their revenue prospects. We obviously saw Merck buy Verona earlier this year, JNJ buy Intracellular…” (12:08).
• Targets vs. Acquirers
  • Focus on both large- and mid-cap, not just acquisition targets—value is present across the board.
  • Potential for SMID biotech (small/mid cap) to rebound after underperformance.
• Misunderstood Names
  • Bristol Myers flagged as “misunderstood”: critical trial catalysts imminent, upside in novel blood thinner Milvexian (12:34).
• AI in Pharma
  • “I don’t think the rotation is about AI for pharma…AI is beneficial…but it’s not a quick fix for innovation in the sector.” (14:21)
• Therapeutic Areas
  • M&A and investment spread across cardiometabolic, immunology, neuroscience—“Big therapeutic categories…” (15:16)

Notable Quotes

“Certainly AI is beneficial…and there’ll be a lot more to come longer term. But, you know, it’s not a quick fix for innovation in the sector.” — David Risinger (14:21)

3. Apple’s Rotation, AI Cycle, and Valuation Discourse (17:00–19:52)

• Apple’s Quiet Climb
  • Hit a record close; now outperforming Meta year-to-date (17:00).
  • Driven more by sector rotation and steadiness than AI hype.
• AI “Penalty to Premium”
  • Early-year: Apple penalized for “lagging” in AI investment, now rewarded for discipline (18:19).
  • Consensus: “No one’s really got great AI on a cell phone…yet.” — Dan Nathan (17:20)
• Valuation Talk
  • Apple at 33x forward PE (vs. historic 24x 10-year average), some warning “a lot of this is already priced in” (19:19, 19:52).

Memorable Exchange

“Apple Intelligence may not be in there but it’s already a 33 times forward PE—so how much more can be in it when you put it in, when it’s already trading 33 times PE?” — Melissa Lee (19:19)

4. AMD Analyst Day: “$1 Trillion Market?” & Semi Sector Moves (24:34–28:30)

• AMD’s Analyst Day Highlights (24:34)
  • CEO Lisa Su bullish: $1T Total Addressable Market by 2030 (AI, CPUs, networking, memory).
  • Revenue forecast: 30% annual growth for next 3–5 years; data center business at 80% (24:34).
  • Competition: Critiques Nvidia’s “closed” system; AMD touting “open” ecosystem (25:24).
  • Pushback on “AI bubble” concerns, citing OpenAI deal and cloud growth.
• Market Skepticism
  • AMD stock dipped on valuation worries but rebounded after more concrete roadmaps given (25:59, 26:39).
  • SoftBank’s Nvidia stake sale seen as minor as percentage of NVDA market cap.

“It’s like, the next two years expected to be about 35%. Right. So that’s where consensus is... As you get to 2028 into 2030... your guess is as good as mine.” — Dan Nathan (26:51)

5. AI’s Impact on Real Estate: Barry Sternlicht & Jonathan Litt Highlight Risks (30:10–38:15)

Barry Sternlicht (Starwood Capital): AI Is “Terrifying” for Real Estate and Jobs

• “AI is going to change the entire world and do it much faster than anything we’ve ever seen before…It’s terrifying for the people.” (32:10)
• White-collar jobs at risk: “Jobs of 15 people can be done with a chatbot…” (32:34)
• Data centers: Starwood cautious—watching tenant creditworthiness, especially Oracle’s exposure to risky AI startups (33:08).

Office Market Bearishness: Jonathan Litt (Land & Buildings)

• “Stay alive 'til 25” — Office REITs remain at risk after pandemic/post-pandemic pain (34:27).
• AI represents a second wave of trouble for underused office space: “It’s a real challenge that lies ahead.”
• Lab/office space: Staying short on Alexandria Realty (“stock was 120, now 50 and change…”), citing the “bloodbath” of vacancies that could become a balance sheet disaster (35:19–36:59).

Apartment REIT Opportunity

• CenterSpace (CSR) sees strategic review after lagging valuations; outlook bullish as sector likely to see more take-private deals (37:10).

Quotes

“We said stay alive til 25. Now we’re in 25 and alive…is about as good as it gets. It’s not thriving.” — Jonathan Litt (34:34)

“We have to let people go…white collar jobs…can be done with a chatbot that cost me $36 a month.” — Barry Sternlicht (32:34)

6. Energy Sector Momentum (30:10–31:30)

• Oil above $60, with energy stocks up 5% in a week, led by Targa, APA, Marathon, Devon (30:10).
• Underloved, value-laden sector: “A lot of valuations you can wrap your head around…finally getting off the mat.” — Guy Adami (31:00).

7. Short Bets, CoreWeave, and Semi Cycle Risk (39:24–41:44)

• CoreWeave’s Disappointment
  • Stock down 16% on weak revenue guidance (39:24), reflecting sector sentiment worries.
  • Karen shorted the stock as a hedge via related mega-tech exposure (39:28).
• Depreciation Risk Highlighted
  • “Depreciation schedules for GPUs are way too long…should be more like three to five years.” — Dan Nathan (40:25)
  • Debt and cash questions linger for high-growth, unprofitable AI infra names.

8. Technical Analysis & Stock Picks: Carter Worth (41:44–44:49)

• Lyft’s Bullish Setup
  • Carter reiterates his call; “quick move to $30” expected: “An epic and important bearish to bullish reversal buy.” (42:20)
• GM and Ford
  • Both breaking out, but GM’s chart overtaking Ford’s for first time in 4 years (44:13).

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Biotech/Pharma’s Value Play:

  “Just look at the last quarter, some of the things [Bristol Myers] said. This could easily be a $60 stock.” – Tim Seymour (17:00)

• On AI Disrupting Office Real Estate:

  “The jobs of 15 people can be done with a chatbot that costs $36/month.” — Barry Sternlicht (32:34)

• On the Apartment REIT space:

  “These companies are either going to go private or the stocks are going to recover. This will be the third apartment REIT this year to grapple with this.” — Jonathan Litt (37:28)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Biotech sector performance & rotation discussion: 00:49–10:36
• David Risinger interview: 11:16–16:08
• Apple & AI valuation: 17:00–19:52
• AMD’s Analyst Day: 24:34–28:30
• AI & Real Estate (Sternlicht/Litt interviews): 32:10–38:15
• CoreWeave segment: 39:24–41:44
• Carter Worth’s stock charts: 41:44–44:49

Summary Table: Sectors & Key Takeaways

| Sector | Key Takeaway | Experts’ Tone/Outlook | |-------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------| | Biotech/Pharma | Rotation underway; tons of value, M&A set to accelerate, regulatory clouds lifting | Bullish (Tim, Karen, David) | | Tech (Apple, AMD) | Apple’s cautious AI approach now being rewarded, AMD’s open ecosystem pitches for AI growth competition | Selective, cautiously bullish| | Real Estate | AI, WFH and office/lab vacancy create major headwinds; apartments (REITs) more attractive take-private bets | Bearish on office, bullish select resi (Litt) | | Energy | Quiet sector rally, still value; MPC, Valero at highs | Cautiously bullish (Guy) | | Semis/CoreWeave | Choppy; high valuations, sector hedges at play, asset depreciation a looming risk | Cautiously bearish/hedged | | Auto (GM, Ford) | Technical breakouts, Ford-to-GM rotation likely | Bullish (Carter/Tim) |

For Listeners:

This episode is packed with actionable viewpoints across biotech, pharma, tech, and real estate, with a heavy focus on macro sector rotations and risks/opportunities born of AI and emerging technologies. The context, specific company names, valuation talk, and hedge-trading mindsets provide both in-the-weeds insight and broad market strategy, true to Fast Money’s “trade the now” philosophy.